According to the latest Wood Mackenzie's forecast about the battery energy storage market, the lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) chemistry will gradually expand and become the most popular (or maybe even dominant) type in the ESS segment.
As of 2015, the LFP share in ESS was just 10%, but advantages like lower prices, longevity and safety should lead to gradual expansion to 15% in 2020, and more than 30% by 2030.
At that point, LFP should be the most popular choice, while the current most popular lithium-manganese-cobalt-oxide (NMC) (above 60% in 2020) will halve (to less than 30%). The NCA chemistry should go up slightly from up to 20% today to maybe 25% by 2030. Other chemistries will get 10% of the ESS market (up from 5% today).
ESS battery chemistry market share forecast, 2015 - 2030
Mitalee Gupta, Wood Mackenzie Senior Analyst said:
“While there was a shortage of NMC batteries in the storage market, there were plenty of LFP batteries available - with capacity mostly in China.
“As lead times for NMC availability grew and prices remained flat, LFP vendors began tapping into NMC constrained markets at competitive prices, thus making LFP an attractive option for both power and energy applications,”
The other thing is that thanks to the new cell-to-pack (CTP) approach, LFP should remain an important chemistry also in the electric vehicle segment - possibly over 20% in 2025, at least in China.
Milan Thakore, Wood Mackenzie Senior Research Analyst said:
“Improvements in gravimetric energy density combined with cell-to-pack technology is the key to LFP now becoming a more attractive proposition in the passenger EV space. Not only will cost and safety be a benefit, but OEMs won’t have to worry about issues surrounding the supply of cobalt and nickel,”
The final forecast is that the lithium-ion demand from portable electronics will become less and less important for the lithium-ion market, decreasing from 26% share in 2020 to just 6% by 2030.
The dominant share will fall on electric vehicles, followed by the battery energy storage for stationary applications.