Regardless of the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic, Tesla has maintained its original goal of 500,000 vehicle deliveries in 2020. The company delivered ~88,500 vehicles in Q1 2020, and ~91,000 cars in Q2. That leaves ~320,500 to hit the forecast.
Tesla and CEO Elon Musk have proven as of late that it's definitely possible to beat the odds, as well as Wall Street analysts' consensus. At this time, analysts are predicting 121,000 Tesla vehicles delivered in Q3.
Tesla's last record quarter was Q4 2019, with 112,000 deliveries. So, to beat the consensus will be really tough. However, to stay on track for a total of 500k, Tesla would have to deliver over 140,000 vehicles in Q3 and 180,000 in Q4.
In yet another leaked email reportedly sent to Tesla employees, CEO Elon Musk wrote:
“We have a shot at record quarter for deliveries, but we’ll have to rally hard to achieve it. This is the most number of vehicles per day that we’ would ever had to deliver. Please consider vehicle deliveries to be the absolute top priority. It’s also extremely important that we keep factory output as high as possible over the remaining 10 days. This is vital for the California market.”
Tesla has a reputation for ramping up deliveries at the end of each quarter. Moreover, it focuses its efforts on more local markets during this time, so it makes sense that Musk mentions California. In addition, Tesla also tends to push harder each quarter, with Q3 and Q4 being potential record breakers.
As Musk looks at the numbers and understands the goal of delivering another 320,000 cars this year, making sure that Q3 numbers are huge are a necessity. This is because cranking out and delivering nearly 200,000 cars in Q4 seems next to impossible.
Troy Teslike, one of the more well-known and accurate amateur analysts when it comes to Tesla delivery estimates recently posted his updated numbers on Twitter. He's looking at 144,000 deliveries for Q3 2020, 187,000 for Q4 2020, and 510,387 for 2020 as a whole.
Can Tesla pull it off? What are your estimates? Drop us a line in the comment section below.