8,000 per week burst rate achieved?

According to Bloomberg’s Tesla Model 3 Tracker, Tesla produced cumulatively more than 192,000 Tesla Model 3 and over 36,000 so far this quarter. At such a pace, Tesla should be able to produce between 70,000-80,000 Model 3 this quarter, which would be its best quarter ever.

*UPDATE: See Editor's note below.

The average rate of production for the past 13 weeks is at nearly 5,200 per week. The Tesla Model 3 Tracker shows also that the estimated individual results already increased beyond 6,000 and 7,000 with a peak at more than 8,000.

The number consists of officially announced production results in previous quarters and estimated production rates in the current quarter.

The main question is how close to sustaining such output is Tesla? In the past, the high production rates were available only for short periods, after which the company was conducting further upgrades to the production lines. We guess that the latest increase is in part the result of new equipment from Tesla Grohmann, which was expected to increase the production to ~8,000 / week with minimal additional capital investment.

Production and deliveries of Model 3 in previous quarters thus far:

  • 2017’Q3 – 260 produced, and 222 delivered
  • 2017’Q4 – 2,425 produced and 1,542 delivered
  • 2018’Q1 – 9,766 produced and 8,182 delivered
  • 2018’Q2 – 28,578 produced and 18,449 delivered
  • 2018’Q3 – 53,239 produced and 56,065 delivered
  • 2018’Q4 – 61,394 produced and 63,150 delivered
  • 2019’Q1 – already 36,514 produced (estimated)
Cumulative by the end of 2018’Q4 – 155,662 produced and 147,610 delivered.

Tesla Model 3 Tracker (Source: Bloomberg)

Tesla registered 278,893 VIN numbers for the Model 3, including more than 53,000 for international markets (outside of North America).

Editor's note: It's important to remember that no one really knows Tesla's official production or delivery figures. At InsideEVs we work hard to provide our sales scorecard and continue to offer the best Tesla estimates in the business. Nonetheless, regardless of the situation with the Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker, it's always interesting for us to see what they've gleaned and to share it regularly. It's just one of a number of sources that we take a look at each day and over the long term to try to keep a handle on the situation. While it's not accurate in the short term, it has been pretty accurate over time. Still, even if it just attempts to catch a  burst here or there, we appreciate its existence. 

Source: Tesla Model 3 TrackerModel 3 VINs