Norway’s EV success may look like a spontaneous phenomenon, but it is not like that. Electric cars benefit from taxes, which makes them the best option for customers by far. This excellent article at Elbil.no explains that. So it is no surprise that the Tesla Model 3 is a blockbuster there. It is already the best-selling car in Norway for 2019. Looking at the numbers, it seems it will be the best-selling EV in a matter of a few years.
Before that, the best-selling EV in Norway was the Nissan Leaf. So far, it has sold 56,635 units since EV sales started in that country, according to Elbilstatistikk.no. This website updates the data many times a day. Just in case you visit it in a few minutes and find new numbers already.
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The fact is that, when we last checked, the Tesla Model 3 had sold 13,028 units in 2019. The second place goes to the Golf, with 7,639 units, while the third spot is for the Nissan Leaf, with 6,227 cars.
The second and third place’s numbers correspond to 13,866 units. Almost what the Model 3 sold by itself since February, when its first deliveries in Norway began. Quite an accomplishment for a car that is just seven-months old in that market.
That said, the 13,028 units of the Tesla Model 3 are all it ever sold in Norway. That puts it in the 6th position in historic EV sales, 43,607 short of what the Nissan Leaf sold there since the end of 2011. At a 1,800-car monthly sales rate, the Model 3 would take 24 months to become the best-selling EV in Norway if the Leaf stopped being sold right now. But it won’t, of course.
If we consider Leaf’s sale pace in 2019, it sells around 700 units every month. In case sales remain stable, the Model 3 will become the best-selling EV in Norway’s history in about 40 months from now. Or in 2022.
In 2021, the Norwegian government will revise EV incentives, which may make electric car sales less attractive than the current ones. At the same time, there will be many more competitors on the market, such as the VW ID.3.
By then, Tesla will have already started the Model 3 production in China, with a much larger output. Prices tend to fall in such a scenario, which would make the cheapest Tesla even more attractive. That makes any forecast premature at this point.
What we can say for sure is that the Model 3 is the rookie that won the championship in its first season in Norway. As a solid competitor, it will probably keep winning.