Most of them think it will happen around 2035.
Some of the countries and states are considering essentially banning sales of new conventional - internal combustion (ICE) - cars at some point in the future, as a final step to go all-electric.
We will not dispute this idea here, but rather take a look at the proposed targets in some of the U.S. states. An interesting set of data was recently shared by the U.S. DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy.
As it turns out, there is a total of 14 states that expressed a target date for when they would like to require new cars to be zero-emission (battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell).
- Washington: 2030
- California, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont: 2035
The list starts with Washington state, where the target is 2030 (legislation passed, but not signed into law), which sounds very optimistic from the perspective of how fast BEVs would have to expand on the market.
The remaining 13 states target 2035. The additional five years makes the target more realistic, but probably still ambitious.
The governor of California signed an Executive Order (in September 2020) requiring zero emissions for all new light-duty passenger vehicles by 2035. It's expected that other states that follow California's regulations will follow:
"The California Air Resources Board will put regulations in place accordingly. Thirteen other states may also be on a path to end sales of new light-duty passenger vehicles powered by internal combustion engines by 2035, but none have regulations in place at this time.
Five of those states have announced goals or taken actions, and eight additional states, which currently follow California’s emission regulations under Section 177 of the Clean Air Act regarding criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases, have not yet made any formal announcements. If those eight states continue to follow California’s regulations, they can be expected to adopt the same 2035 target."
Washington state: Cision PR Newswire, “Washington State Passes Law Establishing 2030 Target for Phasing Out Gasoline Vehicles” April 15, 2021.
Brad Templeton, Forbes, “Washington Governor Vetoes All-Electric Car Bill Over Road Usage Rule, As Though That’s Hard” May 24, 2021.
California: California Air Resources Board, “Governor Newsom’s Zero-Emission by 2035 Executive Order (N-79-20)” January 19, 2021.
Massachusetts: Mass.gov, “Baker-Polito Administration Releases Roadmap to Achieve Net Zero Emissions by 2050” Press Release, December 30, 2020.
New York: The New York State Senate, “Harckham Introduces Bill Requiring Zero Emissions for New Vehicles in NY by 2035” September 25, 2020.
New Jersey: New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, “Murphy Administration Calls For Transformative Actions to Reduce Emissions Fueling Climate Change by 80% by 2050.”
Colorado: Colorado Energy Office, “Colorado EV Plan 2020” April 2020.