The Midterms Won't Mean Much For EV Policy, Analysts Say

Even if Democrats flip congress, they won't be able to make meaningful change.

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Nico DeMattia

By: Nico DeMattia

Oct 21, at 5:31pm ET

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It's no surprise that the current Trump administration is doing all it can to roll back alternative fuel laws and shut down electric vehicle sales. Naturally, EV fans are hoping that if Democrats can flip congress blue in next month's midterm electrics, they'll be able to make some changes. Unfortunately for EV fans, according to S&P Global, it doesn't seem like they'll be able to do much even if they do take control of Congress.

Let's say most of Congress flips blue, and Democrats gain majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives. They could certainly try to draft legislation to help EVs again. They could write bills that would bring back EV tax credits, attempt to make Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards strict again and set penalties for automakers who don't comply. All of those things were reversed by the Trump administration, though, so the President would likely just veto any attempts to course correct.

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It is possible to override the president's veto, but it requires two thirds of Congress to vote in favor of doing so. It is highly unlikely that Democrats would control 2/3rds of either house of Congress, let alone both. And if they don't they'll need Trump to sign off on all changes, which seems almost impossible, given his disdain for EVs. So even with a blue wave, "there would still be the challenge of a veto and then overcoming that veto, which is a very, very high hurdle," Jeff Meyer, CERA's director of mobility and energy, told S&P Global.

So it seems that, unless the Blue Wave is more of a Blue Tsunami, customer will have to wait until at least 2028 for meaningful change back in favor of EVs. Which means at least two more years of both China and Europe increasing their lead in the market. According to S&P Global, the plug-in market share is around 60% in China, while it's near the single digits in America. Even Europe's is significantly higher, at around 45%. As those markets continue to buy EVs, automakers in those countries will continue to innovate. All the while, American EV growth will be stunted and we'll be far behind once we even have the chance to catch back up.

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