Frost & Sullivan Predicts Electric Vehicle Sales Will Hit 2.7 Million in 2018

4 years ago by Eric Loveday 15

Nissan LEAFs Ready to be Sold

Nissan LEAFs Ready to be Sold

It’s future prediction time once again.

Chevrolet Volt Looking For a Buyer

Chevrolet Volt Looking For a Buyer

Here, Frost & Sullivan is at the helm of these plug-in vehicle sales forecasts.

Frost & Sullivan opens with this statement:

“One of the key drivers of the global electric vehicle market is the reduction in the upfront ownership cost of vehicles this year. In fact, the prices of key electric vehicles have gone down by as much as 18 per cent of their 2012 price, as manufacturers look to boost sales and stay competitive. The question is, how much this will impact the development of the market.”

To which it formulates this answer:

“Strategic Outlook of the Global Electric Vehicle Market in 2013, finds that electric vehicle sales stood at 120,000 units in 2012 and estimates this to reach 2.7 million units in 2018.The global markets are indicating an upward trend in adoption as Frost & Sullivan estimates 2013 sales to boost up to 170-190,000 global sales which is more than 50 percent increase from the previous year sales.”

Driving all of this growth will be the introduction of several new plug-in vehicles.  As Frost & Sullivan Automotive and Transportation Team Leader, Anjan Hemanth Kumar, states:

“The scheduled introduction of about 15 new electric vehicle models in the next one year, such as the BMW i8, the Tesla Model S, the Audi R8 and Q7, the Porsche 918 Spyder, and the Mercedes SLS AMG ECell, will intensify competition in the global electric vehicle market and bring down prices.  Several new electric cars including Tesla Model S, Renault Zoe, and Ford Fusion Energi are already best-sellers in their respective markets.”

We’re thinking Frost & Sullivan made an error in saying the Tesla Model S will come next year.  It likely should read “Tesla Model X.”  Regardless, 2014 will be a bang-up year for plug-in vehicles with tons of launches scheduled.

Frost & Sullivan

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15 responses to "Frost & Sullivan Predicts Electric Vehicle Sales Will Hit 2.7 Million in 2018"

  1. scott moore says:

    The caption reads “electric vehicles”, but the article discusses hybrids. When did these become equivalent?

    I have an electric car. A hybrid is a lot of things, but it is NOT an electric car. Sorry.

    1. Loboc says:

      To a non-technical person, if it plugs in, it’s electric. Doesn’t matter if it drives on gasoline as well (or mostly).

    2. David Murray says:

      I think the typical news media pretty much equates plug-in hybrids = electric car. The media is always lacking details. For example, they love to use the phrase “assault rifle” for anything rifle that is black. In the latest news story on the shootings in DC nearly every media outlet claimed the man had an “AR-15 shotgun” WTF? No such thing exists.

      When talking with the public about my cars, I’ve starting trying to use the phrase “plug-in” vehicle, as that sort of lumps them all together.

    3. ItsNotAboutTheMoney says:

      A PHEV has:
      – a grid charging system
      – an electric motor that’s not tiny
      – an inverter that’s not tiny
      – a traction battery that’s not tiny

      In relation to industry and policy your purity is not invited to the meeting.

      1. pjwood says:

        From the plethora of ~9kwh batteries going into cars, I’m guessing “tiny” will end up being something less. The PIP has to be the “me too” floor.

    4. Bloggin says:

      The term electric vehicles or electrified vehicles includes any vehicle that has the capacity to propel itself for any length of time using only electricity.

      Hybrids, plug in hybrids, extended range electrics and pure electric vehicles are all included.

      For example, the C-Max Hybrid can travel 120 miles and go into full EV mode for over 66 of those miles by using break regeneration and torque from the engine as is cycles down while coasting.

      Which means to get the benefit of driving in pure electric mode, one does not require a plug.

      1. pjwood says:

        Why stop their, when the power from an alternater fires the spark in a Humvee? All that was, was kinetic energy recovery from an ICE. See the arguement?

        How about micro-hybrids, if you don’t like Humvees. It keeps going.

        While I see the line blurring away from pure BEV to PHEV, I don’t see non-plugins included because they “fill-up”.

        1. David Stone says:

          The power from the alternator is not energy recovery.

      2. Thomas J. Thias says:

        So……. You have stated here that your C-Max Hybrid can cover a distance of 120 miles of which 66 will be driven exclusively on self generated electricity with the ballance of the 54 miles on gas? That with the EPA rated 40 mpg that you could do this 120 mile run using then, only 1.35 gallons of gas?
        NOW THAT’S AMAZING…..Not believable, but amazing! : )

        Best-

        Thomas J. Thias

  2. kdawg says:

    “such as the BMW i8, the Tesla Model S, the Audi R8 and Q7, the Porsche 918 Spyder, and the Mercedes SLS AMG ECell”

    Except maybe Telsa, I don’t think these other cars are going to provide much help in getting to 2.7 million sales.

    1. David Stone says:

      Directly, I completely agree with you; high end sports cars are attainable for very few.
      But indirectly, I think they will provide help.

      People tend to buy the low end version of the high end they admire and desire, but can not afford.
      When they realise that the big manufacturers are going electric in sports cars, and rich people are buying them, when they see them on the streets, and maybe in films, they will see evs more positively.

      The Roadster had a bigger effect than just its actual low volume sales.

  3. Aaron says:

    As I was making a point at work, I asked the secretary if they made cars that run just on electricity. Her response: “You mean hybrids?” Sadly, some of the population still doesn’t realize there are cars that run strictly on electricity. Our secretary and two others I’ve spoken to didn’t know about EVs.

  4. Bloggin says:

    “More than ten automakers have launched trials for inductive charging, and standardisation for the same is likely to be announced in 2014. SAE has already set up a taskforce working towards the standardization of inductive charging.”

    Now that’s very good news about ten automakers and standardization of inductive charging and where plug-in vehicles will begin to really take off for the general public.

    This means that unlike charging plugs, inductive stations could be more like the ATM network with a few primary carriers, where many different providers use the same charger, and bill separately. So once you establish an account, you could drive up to any inductive charging parking place, the car registers itself and charging begins.

    If you don’t have an account….go find a plug.

  5. Mark H says:

    I wonder what markets will make up the 2,800,000?
    The report list 2012 at 120,000. InsideEvs tells us 52,581 from the US
    The report list 2013 at 170-190,000. Looking like north of 90,000 for the US
    Would love to know the breakout for China and the US in the 2,800,000.
    I am “guessing” that 2018 might be the year the US crosse their first million but I can’t see it much past that.