Report: EVs Need 16% Market Share For Fuel Economy Standards To Be Met

Chevy Bolt EV Charging

JUL 11 2016 BY MARK KANE 25

TABLE 1: EV SALES REQUIREMENT TO MEET THE 2020 STANDARDS

TABLE 1: EV SALES REQUIREMENT TO MEET THE 2020 STANDARDS

plug-in

plug-in

The World Energy Council in its recent report World Energy Perspective 2016: ‘E-mobility: closing the emissions gap estimates that in order to comply with stricter emission regulations in the future, automakers need to embrace plug-in technology in a big way.

Electric car sales are stated as a required technology to achieve the desired average emission level in the appropriate time frame, as ICE vehicle technology is fairly maxed out – and the future targets are too aggressive for the platform to accomodate.

According to the report, by 2020 plug-ins should stand for some 16% sales in Europe, U.S. and China.

Well, that translates to millions of cars annually. Over 20-times more than today in less than five years.

“Electric vehicles (EVs) will need to increase their combined market share to 16% by 2020 to achieve the aggressive fuel economy standards set by regulators, according to new research by the World Energy Council.

While EVs currently represent less than 1% combined market share across the world’s largest markets for new passenger cars, they should be considered central to any policy and technology portfolio designed to lower transport emissions.”

Future of transportation on worldwide roads? New report says at least a 16% adoption rate is needed in short term (InsideEVs/Warren M)

Future of transportation on worldwide roads? New report says at least a 16% adoption rate is needed in short term (InsideEVs/Warren M)

“The innovative role EVs can play in meeting these standards makes for a pragmatic step in closing the emissions gap by 2020. Looking beyond 2020, EVs and innovation in this area present a major growth opportunity not only for car manufacturers but for the energy sector as a whole.”

Over the next five to ten years, passenger vehicle manufacturers will be confronted with regulatory pressure and material penalties, as gains in fuel economy fall behind the required rates of improvement set to address environmental preservation and climate change mitigation.

With a collective annual demand of over 40 million passenger vehicles, three of the largest car markets in the world, the EU, US and China, have all set fuel economy improvement targets of approximately 30% for cars from 2014-2020 (as measured in NEDC gCO2/km), which are expected to exceed forecasted new internal combustion engine (ICE) powered car capabilities.

The World Energy Perspective 2016: ‘E-mobility: closing the emissions gap’, published by the Council in collaboration with Accenture Strategy, examines the growth in sales of EVs as the latest technologies to increase average fuel efficiency and meet these stringent economy standards, set in all three markets, referred to as the “EV gap”. In the EU, the EV gap is 1.4 million, 10% of the estimated 2020 projected passenger sales, in the US, 0.9 million (11%) and in China roughly 5.3 million, 22% of the projected passenger car sales.

The report, which will be presented in the margins of the G20 Energy Ministers meeting in Beijing by Berat Albayrak, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey, highlights key findings which represent a new frontier and a significant opportunity for the energy sector which will be fully embraced at this year’s World Energy Congress in Istanbul, where global energy leaders will address these and similar challenges.”

WEC estimates also how much more electricity will be needed for the millions of additional plug-ins by 2020:

  • 3.7 TWh (equivalent to 734,000 homes) in the EU
  • 4.5 TWh (equivalent to 367,000 homes) in the US
  • 26.2 TWh (equivalent to 17 million homes) in China
World Energy Perspective 2016: ‘E-mobility: closing the emissions gap

World Energy Perspective 2016: ‘E-mobility: closing the emissions gap

source: World Energy Council via Green Car Congress

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25 Comments on "Report: EVs Need 16% Market Share For Fuel Economy Standards To Be Met"

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I don’t see 16% sales by 2020. I’ll consider us lucky if we see half that..

I think we’ll get 4% proper plugins and 12% sub 10 kWh PHEV’s.

It’s easy to solve… The Big oil-car lobby will have the standard lowered.

In Europe, that was exactly how they handled the VW diesel-gate… change the standards.

Penalty payments for excess emissions in EU:from http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/cars/index_en.htm

“If the average CO2 emissions of a manufacturer’s fleet exceed its limit value in any year from 2012, the manufacturer has to pay an excess emissions premium for each car registered.
This premium amounts to
€5 for the first g/km of exceedance
€15 for the second g/km
€25 for the third g/km
€95 for each subsequent g/km.
From 2019, the cost will be €95 from the first gram of exceedance onwards.”

That will be pretty convincing… and it might be worth selling EVs below their cost.

Maybe it’s possible as the 2025 plan as we have 9 yrs to get all these vehicles to the market and all the automakers promise to put many new EV models before the end of the decade + Elon has yet to reveal his top secret plan part 2 Let’s do some math: if I’m correct now at the roads are about 400k to 500k BEVs (~350k only Nissan + Tesla alone) and ~400k preorders for Tesla Model III if they can build them before Dec 2018 at promised rate 500k/yr S3X comb. it would be more than 1M BEVs in Dec 2018 count with combined avg rate of 750k BEVs/yr from all carmakers in next two yrs you get other 1.5M and from 2020 to 2025 avg rate 1.5M BEVs/yr (1M/yr only Tesla so 500k all others I think is possible) you get 7.5M sum up and you have ~10M ZEVs Of course can’t forget buses from BYD and others in our count Even if I’d be ~20% optimistic you have 8M cars on global roads it’s quite good All these cars should lead carmakers to dramatically increase production of BEVs so the exit rate in 2025 could be… Read more »

And of course cannot forget increasing kWh/kg ratio of battery cells + decreasing cost of the packs (Gigafactory in progress, VW plans for sth like GF – oh they look like they had to spend tons of money in all the EV stuff)
Gonna buy a Tesla and won’t worry about CO2

Perhaps this means the tax credit will have to be extended to convince enough people to buy one and, dare I say it, perhaps increased and made into a “cash on the hood” type credit so it will reduce my monthly payment. I doubt I am near high enough on the Model 3 reservation list to qualify for the full tax credit.

We need to get to 100% electric vehicles as quickly as possible, if we are to avoid the worst effects of climate change. And we need to switch to 100% renewable energy as quickly as possible.

Internal combustion efficiency is almost maxed out, with the Prius being case in point.

Switching all vehicles to electric drivetrains at least doubles the efficiency, and can be tripled, or more.

Have you seen Harmony of the Seas? If that would be 100% electric, it wouldn’t just be far more efficient, but also it would save 10 000s of tons of co2/nox and other harmful chemicals ´
look at https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/21/the-worlds-largest-cruise-ship-and-its-supersized-pollution-problem
it pollutes as 400M cars so 1 Harmony of the Seas in pure electric version and looot of people would be breathing at least the same air as today
but wait, we have about 70k transport ships polluting in way like this so cars dont solve much of the pollution problem
Very good luck to all who try/will try to fight with this industry

And fun fact of the year: European commission wants to regulate lawn mowers

Those things are pollution factories. Way worse than cars.

George Bush updated lawn mower regulations in the US way back in 2008, and they’ve been regulated for years before that too.

Are you insinuating that regulating lawn mower emissions is a bad thing? Maybe you are confused about what site you are posting on?

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2008/10/epa-sets-lower-emissions-regulations-for-mowers/index.htm

Actually, all ocean shipping and transport don’t make up a very large part of the global CO2 production at all. While one ship produces a crapton of pollution, it’s still dwarfed by the morning commute of a single city. Nevermind the fact that this one ship carries a whole lot of people at once.

Actually, it’s far more important to get electricity production to 0% CO2 (or some much smaller fraction than today, at the very least) than it is to convert cars to EVs. 35% of our emissions across the globe come from electricity production, vs only about 21% from road transportation. Together, that makes for 56% of the problem, meaning that a large minority still comes from other sources like industry and farming.

Also, reducing CO2 production to 20-30% of its current production is going to take a lot more than the two methods I just mentioned.

Ref:

“35% of our emissions across the globe come from electricity production, vs only about 21% from road transportation.”

That may be true world-wide but in the USA, transportation emissions just exceeded electricity production emissions because of all the coal plant closings and the increased natural gas, wind, and solar.

And EVs can only help clean up electricity. Programmable demand sink, with a reducing cost per kWh.

16% is going to be tough I think. When the model 3, the Bolt, the next gen LEAF and the coming 200+ milers from VW, BMW etc are out I think reaching 5% (of new sales) by 2020 is possible. Can plug-in hybrids do the rest? I’d say it’s unlikely.

That is a highly ambitious goal. But it is certainly possible if we really want to achieve it. Just get batteries down close to $100/KWH and institute a revenue neutral carbon tax.

I don’t see much point to discussing what’s necessary to get to 16% market penetration. The only way we’ll get there is if — or rather, when — the EV revolution enters the classic “S” curve of adoption of a disruptive tech. And once sales of PEVs* have entered that exponential growth phase, it won’t stop at 16%; sales will zoom right past that benchmark and keep accelerating.

That’s not likely to happen with mere government incentives, or rather very strong dis-incentives on gasmobiles; tax-and-fee penalties as draconian as the ones in Norway.

No, that will happen when the average new car buyer perceives an EV as being a better value than a comparably-equipped gasmobile. And that will happen with advances in EV tech, not from government incentives and dis-incentives.

*Plug-in Electric Vehicles

Pushy, while I agree with your first paragraph 100%, one of the factors that will impact the “S” curve will be gov’t incentives and dis-incentives.

I’m not saying that $7,500 dollar EV rebates will get EV’s into the “S” curve. That would be too expensive once the numbers scale that large. And Norway-style dis-incentives are a bit much.

But a nice, honest, pay-for-your-pollution dis-incentive for fossil fuels, along with advantageous tax incentives equivalent to real savings to the gov’t for clean EV’s are appropriate.

What is the lowest miles 2011 Leaf presently known?

If automakers are FORCED to make plug-ins that can only be good news since the price will have to come down, and there will be much great choice in all sizes and types.

In 2015 there were 73.5 million passenger cars sold, almost all of them with internal combustion engines running on gasoline, diesel or natural gas. In 2014 global production of passenger vehicles was 71.18 million. That works out to be an increase of 2.3 million ICE on the road world wide in just one year, from 2014 to 2015.. In contrast just under 540,000 plug-in vehicles were sold in 2015. That’s a difference of 1,760,000 vehicles. In other words Plug-in sales would have to increase by 1,760,000 sales this year in 2016 just to keep even with ICE sales. That works out to be a three fold sales increase in EV sales just for EVs to catch up to just the yearly INCREASE in ICE sales. That doesn’t even factor in the 73 million core sales for ICE over and above any yearly sales increase. It’s probably going to be at least another 2-3 years before EVs can even catch up to sales growth of traditional ICE vehicles, e.g. be able to manufacture and sell over 2.3 million vehicles per year. While all this EV growth is happening, ICE demand will also be growing and increasing from year to year which… Read more »

The predictions of requirements of more electricity prove these morons know not what they are talking about.

Whereas most electric cars are charged at night, with radio controlled charging, the utilities can charge these cars with almost a net zero cost.
As the utilities will be able to use more mainline plants to product the uber efficient power, and less peaker plants…as the power will be sucked out by the batteries at night.