JATO Says WLTP Correlated NEDC Emissions Values Don’t Line Up

AUG 8 2018 BY MARK KANE 23

It seems the automotive industry has a big problem with the new WLTP test cycle that replaces NEDC.

Apparently, emission results are way higher than anticipated.

The WLTP (Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure) is a new laboratory test for measuring CO2 and pollutant emissions from cars and vans that represents much more realistic and robust testing conditions than the previous outdated lab test NEDC (New European Driving Cycle).

We are happy to see that the WLTP range results, energy consumption and emissions are more realistic and achievable under WLTP than the overly-optimistic NEDC, but there are other consequences.

First, the higher emission numbers mean that EU targets for the automotive industry will be in jeopardy. Exceeding limits can trigger fines for manufacturers. On the other hand, in many countries taxes are applied in proportion to CO2 emissions, which is not a good news for drivers.

One more thing is decreasing sales of diesel cars, which typically (at least on paper, without cheating) noted lower CO2 emissions than gasoline cars. Without a fast take in sales of plug-ins, the lack of diesels will raise average CO2 emission for manufacturers.

JATO Dynamics recently warned that the switch to WLTP will result in CO2 emission some 10g/km higher (on average) than NEDC, while previously it was expected to be maybe 8g/km. In the luxury segment, it is nearly 20g/km more. The higher the difference the more encouraging electrification is though, so we’re okay with this.

JATO assumes an average of 10g/km discrepancy between NEDC values and new NEDC correlated values obtained under WLTP, which are calculated using co2mpas

Full press release from JATO:

JATO WARNS OF WIDENING DISPARITY BETWEEN WLTP CORRELATED NEDC VALUES AND EXISTING NEDC DATA

  • JATO assumes an average of 10g/km discrepancy between NEDC values and new NEDC correlated values obtained under WLTP, which are calculated using co2mpas
  • Only 20% (by volume) of model/versions have been published as being re-homologated under WLTP test cycles
  • There is a risk manufacturers could face significant penalties for noncompliance with the CO2 fleet target at 130g/km, if the CO2 assumed difference remains
  • Further risk ahead for 2020 and 2021 when the target will move to 95g/km

JATO Dynamics, a global leader in automotive business intelligence, is releasing its latest findings on the impact of WLTP on the automotive market as the industry approaches the September deadline, when WLTP testing will apply to all new car production.

The findings indicate that re-homologation to the WLTP test cycle is having a more significant impact than previously thought on NEDC correlated values obtained under WLTP, which are calculated using co2mpas. This could result in significant financial penalties for automotive manufacturers in EU member states where CO2 drives taxes. The new figures indicate that the disparity between NEDC test data and NEDC correlated data under WLTP test cycle is higher than the 8g/km JATO monitored back in April 2018, and that the process of concluding the re-homologation of all vehicles could take longer than expected.

Today, due to increased test numbers, JATO has a larger and more robust sample of vehicles from which to calculate the volume weighted impact on NEDC correlated CO2 values under WLTP testing. Additionally, it is possible to calculate the impact on vehicle segments too.

The analysis of the volume weighted effect of re-homologation finds that:

  • A difference of 9.6g/km between the CO2 amount calculated under NEDC testing and WLTP tested (NEDC correlated) values. This is nearly 2g/km higher than the 8g/km previously seen in April 2018
  • Difference in CO2 values by segment are shown in the following table:
  • The majority of cars currently re-homologated are within the A and B segments, meaning this difference could increase even more when additional segments are included where weight is considered to be at +10.3g/km

This comes at a time when the carbon footprint of Europe is likely to further increase. Firstly, there’s a significant shift away from diesel to petrol vehicles across the EU member states, with registrations in H1 2018 showing petrol vehicles increasing their market share by 7 percentage points to now account for 57% of the market. In stark contrast, diesels have suffered a significant decline, with their share of market falling by 9 percentage points to 37% – the lowest for diesel vehicles this century. Finally, and perhaps more crucially, despite Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs) increasing registrations by 30% in volume year on year, that fuel type still only accounts for 6% of the market. Significant progress is still needed for AFVs to plug the gap left by the declining diesel market, if the trend towards petrol vehicles continues.

Once WLTP testing is fully enforced and more vehicles are re-homologated, JATO predicts CO2 values to be even higher combining the fuel type shift mentioned above and the WLTP re-homologation effect.

The findings highlight to the industry that CO2 emissions are a key influencer of EU member state taxes and EU fleet penalties, so a combination of higher readings under the WLTP test criteria, and the shift towards petrol vehicles could have a significant impact on the industry. Today 37% of vehicles registered in EU member states are subject to a CO2 purchase tax, whilst over half of vehicles sold (52%) enforce a CO2 ownership tax – including sizable markets such as France, Germany and the UK. With the disparity between CO2 levels recorded under NEDC test conditions and NEDC correlated values calculated following WLTP test conditions and correlated using Co2mpas, CO2 levels could be significantly higher than previously thought which could result in tax rates changing to accommodate the rising figures. More significantly, automotive manufacturers could face significant penalties, under the EU regulation that penalises carmakers for every gram over the CO2 reduction target.

If not already, manufacturers should take deliberate steps to understand the NEDC correlated CO2 and fuel consumption values, as well as the WLTP emission and fuel consumption values of each vehicle build. This should be assessed alongside the local market tax on emission levels, and vehicle configuration, to evaluate the competitive positioning of their models, avoid fines, and navigate changing consumer preferences.

A spokesperson for JATO commented: “What our latest data shows is that the impact of re-homologation to WLTP testing could be even higher than previously thought. Following our analysis of a sample of the vehicles currently re-homologated, if this is extrapolated to the whole fleet, CO2 values could reach 130g/km in 2019, which is a significant 12g/km increase on the 118g/km currently seen in Europe and above the target set by the EU. As a result, car manufacturers could face a penalty of €95 per gram over the target per vehicles sold. This could amount to a huge financial penalty for the European car industry who registered more than 16 million vehicles in 2017.

“What is also worrying for the industry is that the publication of re-homologated models/versions is not progressing as quickly as expected. It has taken 11 months for 20% of existing model/versions in the market to be re-homologated and published, meaning the industry could face a backlog of vehicles that cannot be registered if it isn’t completed by 31 August.”

JATO’s data can be accessed via insight reports that are updated in real time. Data on the dashboards created by JATO are designed to help the industry evaluate the risks and opportunities related to the impact of WLTP testing, and to navigate the potential impact on tax and regulation.

JATO provides a tracking tool of all re-homologations in a dashboard format that:

  • Summarises per model version the incremental/decrement CO2 values
  • Displays per model version the impact on retail price (if any)
  • Displays per model version the impact on local taxes price (if any)
  • Displays the date of introduction of re-homologated model/versions
  • Displays the market where the re-homologated model/versions have been released first

Source: JATO via Green Car Congress

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23 Comments on "JATO Says WLTP Correlated NEDC Emissions Values Don’t Line Up"

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Dan B

So what’s the problem? The test is more accurate. Now industry has to deal.

Some Guy

Or they lobby it away. They already maaged to get a WLTP conversion factor baked into the emission targets.
The only language they anderstand is loss of sales to a superior product. Then they attack the newcomer by all means legal and dirty, followed by funding smear campaigns, and if this does not help they develop something. Then, they claim that they need subsidies aplenty, as others are far ahead.
Daimler saw sales drop over 20% in US in July compared to last year. I wonder why that might be. Such insane beatings in this market are known to them only from the S-class a few years back, when Model S production increased.

BTW: BMW just recalled 300000 ICE cars because they can burst into flames. While driving slowly or standing around parked. Over 30 already did burn in South Korea alone. The press does not seem to care. Imagine what would happen if one of those was a Tesla…

ffbj

Right. I saw that where some places banned BMW since they would catch other cars on fire too. So lots and restaurants and other places banned them. Though now they figured out what the cause was, but it does show a decided media bias in regard to Tesla. At least another example of said bias.

Nonbiker

That BMW-thing was on the news so the press did care.

Zlatko

https://www.ft.com/content/2a123e88-9582-11e8-b747-fb1e803ee64e Did you miss this story? Intentional inflation of WLTP results in order to undermine the targets for 2025 and 2030. Higher fake WLTP results will mean LESS BEVs and PHEVs, not more…

nix

“the switch to WLTP will result in CO2 emission some 10g/km higher”

This choice of words made me chuckle. It reminded me of my favorite 2 local news quotes. One from Weather, the other from Sports. To paraphrase:
1) This snow should melt away quickly with the extra hour of sunlight (referring to daylight savings).
2) If more teams played with this kind of heart, there would be more winning teams.

I love it when I can work those into conversation…

Of course the cars have been emitting the same amount of CO2 the whole time, the WLTP will just more accurately estimate CO2 emissions. So the big question (I don’t know the answer) is whether for tax purposes if they are going to re-rate cars already on the road? The current fleet is dirtier than once believed, and it would be counter-productive to punish new cars that might even pollute less than older cars by only taxing new cars on WLTP numbers, while using old numbers for old cars.

Will

Yelp idiots or a lobby group who wants to go back to nedc

Mr. M

the whole sales of each brand have to match or be below a specified CO2 limit otherwise the brand needs to pay fines. Therefore higher CO2 estimation of each car makes it way harder to reach the goal. thus meaning more EVs need to be sold or the fines will be higher.

James

JATO’s numbers are irrelevant since it has been proven all of the Euopean ICEmakers have fitted defeat devices on their diesel cars and trucks.

Volkswagen got caught, It’s Audi division mostly got off the hook, yet Mercedes, BMW and others are all doing the same thing.

Adopt the WLTP guidelines. Anything is better than NEDC, even though the legacy OEMs are hard at work tweaking the new guidlines to their favor.

The earth loses, the consumer loses until the general abundance of our populations realize we are getting conned. EVs have all the upside as older populations give over to newer ones more open to change.

It still puzzles me that folks over 40 years old seem staid in their opinions, ways and buying habits in accepting the PR and advertising nonsense pushed out by the traditional car companies.

Djoni

Hum..let me guess that by your assumption only youger people buy EV like expensive Tesla?

I just don’t think so.

Some young are also pretty stiff on their belief, some older have seen raining and know better.

Mr. M

defeat device or not, the NECD number would be the same. Since the device only changed the addblue consumption during real world driving, so driver had to revill addblue more seldom.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Headline says “JATO Says WLTP Correlated NEDC Emissions Values Don’t Line Up”

So… Jet Assisted Take-Off says Women’s Leadership Training Program correlated New England Drama Council values don’t line up??? 😉

@staff:

I’m glad that you did define some of the terms in almost the first paragraph after that acronym-filled headline. To be fair, I did know what NEDC means, altho I’m sure many IEVs readers didn’t.

But really, JATO to me does mean Jet Assisted Take-Off. No doubt it means something else here, and it would be nice if you’d tell us readers what that is.

philip d

I thought the same about JATO. Was amused by thinking about cars using JATOs as alternative propulsion and the resulting emissions at rush hour.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“It seems the automotive industry has a big problem with the new WLTP test cycle that replaces NEDC.”

I’m sure that in particular, European auto makers are or will be dismayed at any significant change from the NEDC rating system, which has proven far too easily manipulated by auto makers, to show fuel efficiency/ EV range efficiency numbers far higher than real-world numbers.

This change is long overdue. It’s shocking just how much more realistic the U.S.’s EPA ratings are vs. the NEDC ratings.

Now, if we could only get Japan and China to follow suit…

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2293192/The-tricks-trade-How-fuel-economy-figures-new-cars-good-think.html

Amperaguy

“Now, if we could only get Japan and China to follow suit”

Japan and China are switching to WLTP.

Omicron

If nothing else, Japanese and Chinese automakers are forced to use WLTP if they want to sell cars in Europe. Starting this September, it is illegal to have a car for sale in the EU that does not have WLTP numbers. (Ironically, several European car makers apparently overslept this date and have to temporarily halt production of some of their models because they can’t get them certified in time!)

Mr. M

the problem is that now not only one model must be tested in a standard configuration (NECD) but for every model each possible subset that could change fuel consumption (e.g. anything that changes weight, air resistance, motor adjustment) must be tested speparately (WLTP). since the testing facilities have not magically 20x the space compared to before they where suddenly overbooked by years. which means the sudden change (only some years lead time. i think around 3 years) made it impossible to test everything according to WLTP guidelines. automaker warned from the beginning that this problem is imminent, but lobbists got it not removed or delayed further. therefore some sales are not possible soon. but this is most likely only in the next 0.5 – 2 years a problem and will be solved very fast.

HansBlix

“One more thing is decreasing sales of diesel cars, which typically (at least on paper, without cheating) noted lower CO2 emissions than gasoline cars.“
Diesels are much more efficient than gasoline engines and have lower CO2 emissions compared to a similar powerful gasoline engine. You are mixing up NOx with CO2, which seems to be solved with new non-cheating diesel engines coming out.

Mr. M

You are right. Gasoline and diesel engine where cheated the same way (e.g. highest allowed tire pressure) under NECD, therefore each had some percent less consumption on paper than in real live. E.g.: Diesel 4l/100km (paper) vs. 5l/100km (real), and gasoline 4.8l/100km (paper) vs. 6 l/100km (real).

It’s easy to see that diesel CO2 pollution is always below gasoline numbers. This has nothing to do with “cheating” aka using the defined spec limit as much as possible to accieve lower consumption.

Nonbiker

“On the other hand, in many countries taxes are applied in proportion to CO2 emissions, which is not a good news for drivers.”

This doesn’t matter because the limits are just adjusted to WLTP and the amount of taxes will remain the same.

mzso

Naturally they need to re-adjust target values if they were made for NEDC…

Martyn Maynard

This whole subject is foggy. In addition to introducing WLTP test cycle, the legislation also clamps down on emissions cheating. Thus no one really knows if the increase is due to the to the “harsher” WTLP test or the elimination of historical cheat devices. If vehicle manufacturers are fined, this would be a well deserved penalty for past cheating.