Without China’s Support, the Prediction of Selling 2 Million EVs Annually By 2020 Seems Beyond Reach
It’s been stated on several occasions now that by 2020, auto analysts expect 2 million or so electric vehicles to be sold annually.
Compared to the 110,000 or so sold in 2012, 2 million is a monumental leap, but we won’t get there by 2020 without China.
In 2012, it’s estimated that some 8,000 electric vehicles were sold in China. That’s far below the previous predictions of 100,000-plus put out by analysts years ago. 2013 isn’t shaping up to be much better in terms of EV sales in China and 2014 will likely be a dud too.
Electric vehicles (not trikes or e-bikes) aren’t catching on in China, despite automakers there continually promising new models. The problem seems to be with buyers who just aren’t buying EVs there. This is likely due to high price tags, as compared to ICE.
China offers strong incentives to those who purchase EVs (~$9,000 per vehicle), but still buyers aren’t buying. This non-buying puts a damper on future EV plans for automakers who see no reason to develop and build vehicles that buyers won’t buy.
The US is the #1 plug-in market. Japan #2 and Europe #3. Most analysts think China will eventually be #1 and that’s where the 2 million EVs sold annually by 2020 prediction comes in, but without China showing some love for plug-ins, 2 million just can’t be achieved by 2020. Especially when those same analysts says that half of those 2 million sales will be in China.
China’s government is trying to boost sales, but buyers have to buy and aside from forcing them to do so, we’re unsure of what else can be done to get China on board the EV revolution. Any ideas?