Will Toyota Cancel the RAV4 EV?

AUG 2 2013 BY TONY WILLIAMS 54

Occasionally, the subject comes up amongst we RAV4 EV owners concerning how much money the RAV4 EV actually costs Toyota to sell in California. Toyota must either sell 2,600 cars through 2014 to earn California Air Resources Board – Zero Emission Vehicle (CARB-ZEV) credits, or buy those credits on the open market which allows them to sell hundreds of thousands of profitable oil burners in California.

Currently, six “Very Large Manufacturers” are selling ZEV cars in California to meet this mandate.

Honda Will Make 1,100 Fit EVs To Fill A Compliance Need

Honda Will Make 1,100 Fit EVs To Fill A Compliance Need

Manufacturer – Vehicle used for compliance:

  1. GM – Spark EV
  2. Ford – Focus EV
  3. Fiat/Chrysler – 500e
  4. Toyota – RAV4 EV
  5. Nissan – LEAF
  6. Honda – Fit EV

In the near future, BMW, Hyundai, Kia, Mazda, Mercedes and Volkswagen will be added to that list. Four additional manufacturers would also be required to comply with the ZEV requirements, but would be allowed to meet their obligation with PHEVs.

It’s no secret that Toyota doesn’t like non-hybrid battery electric cars, and the recent ramblings of a Toyota executive in Europe only reinforced that further. Earlier this year, the trade group representing Toyota and other manufacturers, including GM, attempted to stop  CARB mandates yet again, this time through the EPA. Thankfully, the very existence of a successful Tesla selling only electric vehicles (and expensive ones, too) at 400-600 per week made the trade group’s cries that “nobody wants EVs” seem a bit insincere.

Their petition was declined this time, but ten years ago it was successful. When CARB did relent then and remove the ZEV mandate, the original Rav4 EV from 1997-2003 was cancelled almost immediately, alongside the much more famous cancellation of the GM EV-1. A total of 1,484 were sold or leased of the first generation RAV4 EV.

Out Getting More Than 100 Miles Of Range In The Toyota RAV4 EV

Out Getting More Than 100 Miles Of Range In The Toyota RAV4 EV

The current RAV4 EV’s replacement for CARB-ZEV compliance has already been revealed, and few were surprised that is wasn’t a battery car at all, but instead a hydrogen ZEV, scheduled to arrive in California late next year. Toyota isn’t the only one doing this.

With that background, the question remains; if Toyota can’t get CARB to repeat the events of ten years ago and let them just build oil burning cars, and Toyota doesn’t want to build ANY pure battery electric vehicles, wouldn’t it be cheaper to just buy the CARB-ZEV credits from Tesla (that Toyota owns a minority share of) instead of building the RAV4 EV? Tesla has already earned over $60 million dollars from selling those credits.

Tesla's Influence Can Clearly Be Seen In The Toyota RAV4 EV

Tesla’s Influence Can Clearly Be Seen In The Toyota RAV4 EV

Toyota has already paid at least $60.1 million to Tesla for the background work on the RAV4 EV. That work includes “the successful completion of certain at risk development milestones” and the “delivery of prototype samples”, for example. In other words, the basic engineering and design work.

So, how much does it cost per RAV4 EV unit today? If we divide the total of just the development costs billed to Tesla (and not Toyota’s internal development costs, which included crash testing, etc) by the 706 RAV4 EVs delivered since September 24, 2012, we get $85,000 per each car delivered so far. Yes, if Toyota delivered all 2600 cars, those fixed expenses to Tesla would drop to $23,000 per unit.

Here’s my breakdown to date:

  • $85k = $60,000,000 / 706 vehicles sold. The $60 million fixed Tesla costs are for everything except the actual hardware per delivered car
  • $15k is my wild guess of the cost of a basic “glider” RAV4 EV (engine-less car)
  • $40k per drive-train / battery / hardware from Tesla to be installed in the “glider”

That adds up to:

  • $140,000 net cost per car delivered to date. That’s without marketing costs, Toyota’s engineering costs, spare parts stockpiles, assembly tooling, warranty expenses, etc

$40,000 equals my guess of the typical net price to Toyota per sale with all of Toyota’s discounts. Discounts offered by Toyota are typically $7,500 to $15,000 from the $51,000 total window sticker price. Therefore, there is:

$100,000 loss per car if production stopped today. Multiplied by 706 cars is a total of $70,600,000 lost. If Toyota built all 2600, the Tesla fixed costs are lowered by $62,000 per car so that 2600 multiplied by $38,000 lost per car equals $98,800,000 total program cost.

That’s $28,200,000 in additional expenses if the entire 2600 are produced that could be used to buy those credits instead.

Toyota RAV4 EV Interior

Toyota RAV4 EV Interior

CAR PROBLEMS

The RAV4 EV has had a number of technical problems, some of which are still unresolved. My particular car has had the motor assembly replaced, the heater, the DC to DC computer and the battery pack was dropped to replace the charge port that failed. Over 30 days in the shop in 9 months of ownership. My car is not isolated in these issues.

Ongoing problems remain; for instance, the car fails to charge on the 31st day of every month on a timer, as it just did on July 31, 2013, even after getting the updated firmware that allegedly fixed charge timer issues, and my repeated complaints to the dealer about these issues.

But, all this doesn’t yet address the singular biggest issue with the current RAV4 EV; the car doesn’t sell well. In June 2013, only 44 were sold. Toyota made several aggressive changes to pricing and the sales only went up to about 100 for the month ending July 2013. They still have to sell 2000 more cars.  (full 2010-2013 monthly sales table by vehicle can be found here)

So, is it cheaper to cut the losses now and buy credits instead of delivering more cars? With potentially $28,200,000 in additional costs to Toyota to sell 2000 more cars, there’s some very serious considerations to make. It’s impossible for me to know any potential offer on the table, but if Tesla or some other company offered them a sweetheart deal on ZEV credits that cost less than $28 million, would they cancel RAV4 EV? Let me know in your comments below.

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54 Comments on "Will Toyota Cancel the RAV4 EV?"

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Are the ZEV credit prices fixed or is there a bargaining process?

Presumably its just like anything else – subject to supply and demand. If Tesla doesn’t have anyone buying them then they lower the price until someone does. If they have more offers than they have credits (which is happening soon since Tesla is saturating the California market) then they raise the price.

While I don’t dispute any facts and figures in the above article, I would say that there is a cost for Toyota to not developing their own EV vehicle that is measured in terms of a technology deficit – at some point we will all be driving EVs and Toyota would be behind without these early learnings. They are masters of the hybrid (Prius), but there is a need for pure EVs, especially as batteries get better and better.

kickincanada

One thing missing. What is the value of the emission credit per vehicle or for the full 2600 cars? Also, for each year moving forward are they required to produce more ZEVs? And good luck selling those fuel cell vehicles.

The value of the emission credit is what the market will endure. The penalty per car not built is fixed at $5000 each. There are provisions to make cars later to count for today.

If they only have to sell 1427 hydrogen cars at 7 credits each, don’t you think Toyota would like that more 2600 at 3 or 4 credits each?

1427 cars * 7 = 9,989 credits for hydrogen car with 300 mile range and fast refueling
2600 cars * 3 = 7,800 credits for Rav4 EV (assuming 100 official CARB range)
2600 cars * 4 = 10,400 credits for Rav4 EV (assuming “cooked books” for 200 range)

Bonaire

Does anyone know why tesla gets more credits for 85kwh cars than 60kwh? It’s one car, you can drive both the same number of miles.

Tony Williams

They are not “the same car”. One car with 85kWh goes “300 miles” with “fast refueling”, which qualifies for 7 credits per vehicle.

The other car has 60kWh and goes at least 200 miles with fast refueling, and therefore qualifies for 5 credits.

You see why the 7 credit cars were built first?

Type V – 300+ miles range “fast refueling” – Credit per vehicle: 7
Type IV – 200+ miles range “fast refueling” – Credit per vehicle: 5
Type III – 100+ miles range “fast refueling” – Credit per vehicle: 4
Type III – 200+ miles range ————– Credit per vehicle: 4
Type II – 100+ miles range ————— Credit per vehicle: 3
Type I.5 – 75-100 miles range ———– Credit per vehicle: 2.5
Type I – 50-75 miles range ————— Credit per vehicle: 2

David Murray

I was unaware of the problems these vehicles were having. But up until now I’ve been surprised they haven’t sold better than they have. I’m not a fan of SUVs to begin with, so this vehicle never appealed to me. But I realize most of the population does like SUVs and with a Tesla drive train, I have been baffled that more people haven’t bought these up.

I think people don’t want a short range SUV. This one can only go in a 50 mile radius on a good day. (50 miles there 50 miles back). If they had put a range extender in it, it would have sold much better. Wait for the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV to come out.

The actual real life freeway range at 65mph on a flat, dry, hard surface level roadway without a headwind or the heater will consume energy at 3.4 miles per kWh (294 wattHours per mile).

3.4 * 41.8kWh useable stored energy = 142 miles

At 50mph, 4.4 miles per kWh (227 wattHours per mile) is 184 miles

Driving 100 miles is easy.

David Murray

On a second note. If they are having trouble selling the Rav4 EV, how much trouble will they have selling those stupid hydrogen vehicles?

vdiv

David, make that the primary note and a very important one.

If the RAV4 EV is offered nationwide a lot more sales would be made and, gulp! Toyota may even break even at some not too distant point.

Bonaire

I was checking out the Rav-4 EV a month ago when we went and leased my wife’s CR-V. Too bad they didn’t have the Rav-4 EV in Pennsylvania – would have gone for it. We did stop at the Toyota dealership here and looked at a few SUVs but they had the typical sales-floor mentality and the sales guy that latched onto us was kind of strange. Honda got our deal for 3-year lease of a CR-V. Next, we are waiting for a good EREV to come out in 3-years from GM, hopefully, so I can use our GM-Card Credits.

pjwood

They will sell the hydrogen cars as “stupid hydrogen cars”, because they already treat the whole subject as a loss. That’s the irony. Toyota’s up 7 points today (TM). Outside the fuel-efficient tech bubble, I think a camp of high-margin, wait-and-see, “we’ll follw” car manufacturers is generally forming. Its not like their regular cars are winning “top tens” anymore. Seems like this is another reflection of their corporate culture.

zilm

5% of Tesla made them ~$650m in a year. Do they want to hurt (a little, yes, but still a hurt) this gold chicken?

Who buys EVs? Right now, a group that’s largely dominated by environmentalists. Who dislikes SUVs, sometimes to an irrational degree? Environmentalists. Anyone else here see a fundamental, “trying to sell a new kind of meat lover’s pizza to vegetarians” aspect to this picture…?

Plus, people can afford a RAV4 EV are much more likely to want something that’s far sexier, like a Tesla.

Toyota is quickly turning into the EV eunuch in the harem: They see other people doing it, they want to take part, but they just can’t manage it. Until they have a change of heart (and possibly top management), they will remain outside the EV movement while the rest of us are gleefully plugging our brains out, so to speak.

vdiv

The way I see it a $50k RAV4 EV is the most affordable way to drive a “Tesla” that is rather practical. The problems can be fixed and this vehicle can be made cash-flow positive if there is a will. As you point out, unfortunately there isn’t.

Bonaire

Given the article writer’s experience of 30 days in the shop after 9 months, seems the car also is not that reliable. Nothing like my Chevy Volt which has had zero shop time and a 2+ year life so far.

Danpatgal

lol – I’ve been plugging my brains out for some time now, it’s lots of fun. And, well, the poor eunuch just isn’t interested, he’s got a whole ‘nother game going on that, from my perspective, is way too expensive, inefficient, and unsustainable. That’s the vegetarian’s take on this larger meatier offering. In my book, Small is Beautiful.

Schmeltz

If it is any consolation to Toyota, there are more than a few compliance car brethren who also are selling just a few vehicles every month. So misery loves company I guess. If I was Toyota, I believe I would have made a deal with Tesla on the credits.

Sorry to hear you are having problems with the car Tony. Problems like you spoke of can only tarnish the reputation of a vehicle they have difficulty selling to begin with.

pjwood

It would be bad optics for Tesla to cheer on a swap like this. Toyota could choose to buy Tesla’s credits, but after the 68MM in Q1 was chalked up as what made them profitable (net profit was less), and also after they announced earnings guidance which did not anticipate any further ZEV revevenues, I would think the whole process just becomes a stye for them.

Maybe it doesn’t matter, since I don’t think Tesla is expecting another profitable quarter any time soon (charging stations, etc.). Of course, I have no moral problem if Toyota goes over a barrel pressuring up the market for ZEV credits. The problem for their board room may be the uncertainty of leaving it to the ZEV credit market, versus just taking the rest of a certain loss (~26mm?) with the 2600 Rav4 EVs.

Benny's

Hi Tony, here in my area of n. ca the Rav4 EV is being discounted and is on my radar for a possible lease until the more affordable Tesla will come out. Is it possible to by pass the 31st day software glitch by simply not using programming and software for charging? I’m willing to put up with minor clutches for the 103 mile range. Thanks for your input!

Well, my problems with my car are far more than “minor”. I didn’t list them all. My “gateway” computer also failed which can leave the car stranded.

It’s a good car once they get everything fixed. It will go 142 miles at 3.4 miles per kWh at 65 mph down a level, dry, hard surface roadway with no headwind and no heater.

No matter what, they will only make 2600 and that’s it !!!

Bennyd

Thanks Tony for your reply. The 142 miles of range is absolutely worth some hassles! My wife commutes 84 miles a day and the Rav4 EV seems to be the only EV outside the much more expensive Tesla S that would cover her range. I was looking to possibly get on a lease for the BMW i# but pricing seems much. I believe the Rav4 EV is in a good position for a bargain…even if they discontinue it, a 3 year lease will be over by the time the more affordable Tesla will be available, or at least something similar.

Bennyd

I forgot to ask the reason for a computer that failed you and left you stranded. What’s that about?

It’s the “gateway” that connects the Toyota car with the Tesla car. It also contains communication hardware (AT&T) and OBD2 style port.

It has to work for the car to work.

Bennyd

Thanks, I’ll ask the dealer about it and find out if there is a backup fix.

Evil Attorney

I think one of the reasons the Rav4 isn’t selling well is that most people interesting in EVs can clearly see that this is a half-baked effort on Toyota’s part, which leads to half-baked design and quality. At the onset, the Rav4 wouldn’t even charge with some L2 chargers, which to me, was a big warning sign.

Anecdotally, I’m not sure that Toyota is fully behind hydrogen cars either. Every day I drive by a hydrogen fueling station that is directly across the road from Toyota’s North American headquarters. I constantly see Mercedes fueling up there (and sometimes other car brands), but have rarely ever seen a Toyota.

The only thing Toyota truly likes is making money and the Prius!!! They only came out with Prius because the US federal government handed out a bunch of money to the three big US auto companies for advanced energy efficient cars.

Toyota was silly enough to think our US companies would actually use that money wisely, and they didn’t want to get stuck in second place. We know how that ended.

Bill Howland

Well, the charging issue I’m sure is common to Teslas. My roadster will not charge at many L2 stations. The only one (yeah the only one) it will reliably charge at is the GE DuraStation (note, this is not the Wattstation that fries Leaf’s).

jzj
1. My RAV4 EV has been, aside from the useless timer, just great: fast (0-60 in 7.0 seconds), real-world 130+ mile highway range (repeatedly demonstrated), comfortable, roomy, full amenities. My biggest peeve is the HVAC’s gizmoid controls, but that’s Toyota’s doing on all RAVs. I believe it is far and way the best EV available outside a Tesla, especially for a family (we loved our Leaf, but the RAV is definitely better in all departments). We paid about $30,000 net (inclusive of rebate and credit). BTW: as for the timer, I simply put the EVSE on a $50 water heater timer unit, no problems. 2. It boggles my mind that this vehicle is not selling, but I believe this is because of a lack of national press because it is essentially just a California car and because Toyota is putting minimal effort into trying to sell it. 3. This article is a great analysis of the situation, but I’d ask Tony whether he might not think that Toyota is so conflicted about this vehicle that it is intentionally trying to let it die on the vine rather than let the car disprove their fundamental commitment to synergy drive.

Toyota isn’t conflicted at all. They built the car for one task, and one task only: earn CARB-ZEV credits in model years 2012 – 2014. If there was a cheaper way to do that, I believe they would strongly consider it.

The car isn’t “essentially a California only car; it SPECIFICALLY is a California car, and will be when and if the last of 2600 roll of the assembly line sometime in late 2014.

Toyota doesn’t want to spend money to advertise it, or do anything that might make it too popular. Look what happened to Honda recently when they dropped the price of the compliance Fit EV. All of a sudden, they were swamped with orders for a car that sells at 20-40 per month until they hit 1100, presumably late 2014. Since Honda builds them on a dedicated small assembly, it’s not even possible to increase production (nor do they want or need to)

It’s the same game. Both Toyota and Honda will be hydrogen in 2015.

Marta

What Toyota Hydrogen ZEV is coming to California this year? I haven’t seen any articles about that on InsideEVs, and technically it is an electric vehicle…

Ocean Railroader
They had a article in the USA today about how there are only 25 to 30 hydrogen cars made by Honda and that they cost almost a million each to make along with the fueling stations cost four million each to build. They also talked about how when Hydrogen is all built out it would be double the price of gas. My question is that will the electric cars be able to defeat hydrogen if you can 200 to 300 miles on a battery charge and power up cheaply at home from your wall plug or a supercharger for pennies on the dollar compared to hydrogen which will most likely be starting at 6.00 dollars a gallon or kilogram and going up from there. Also with batteries you don’t need to break up water or store large amounts of flammable hydrogen around. And for people who own their own solar panels why should they buy hydrogen when they can charge up at home for free every morning. The major car makers running down the Hydrogen highway was talked about in Who Killed the Electric Car. Personally I think it was Tesla alone that brought back the Electric Car in that… Read more »
Bill Howland

Agreed Ocean Railroader,

Ford could have pretty easily taken a Mercury Marquis and put a nice big battery in it. Controlling cost could come soon after introduction, as Tesla is supposedly doing partnering with Panasonic.
Supposedly Tesla gets the Panasonic cells cheaper than anyone else since they don’t need all the packaging, and get a discount for that.

Tesla is far from perfect, but they are at least trying to become mainstream. Other manufacturers are just tinkering, although GM has its well developed Tinker box, the chevy volt, which for what it is, is fine… Why they don’t build anything but a sedan is a mystery. Nissan also has its Leaf Econobox to get the budget minded’s feet wet.

Spec

Wow, the car sounds like a lemon. Tesla is lucky they are not catching any flack for this.

Eletruk

The Nissan Leaf should be taken of the list of compliance cars. Nissan isn’t selling the Leaf to meet CARB credits, they actually committed to making and selling EVs for profit. As a matter of fact, Nissan probably can sell some CARB credits of their own.

Nissan is definitely is required to comply with CARB-ZEV, and that they clearly do. In addition, they also sell tens of thousands of electric vehicles in California.

So, yes, the LEAF is a “compliance car” PLUS !!!

I think the Rav4 EV should only get 3 CARB-ZEV credits earned per vehicle, or they may fudge their numbers to call the Rav4 a 200 mile car and get 4 credits. One or the other; see the below table. The $5000 is the PENALTY per car, in addition to the earned or purchased credits. The hydrogen car can be seen here, for late 2014 or 2015: http://www.ubergizmo.com/2013/06/2015-toyota-hydrogen-fuel-cell-car-to-sport-300-mile-range/ You can bet that hydrogen car will be “fast refueling” and will have a “300 mile range” through 2017!!! That’s 7 credits per vehicle, and they only have to make 1427 minimum. After 2017, the credit drops to 3. So, when you’re busy scratching your head wondering why, look no further. CARB-ZEV For 2012-2014 “Phase 3”, 12% of production must meet yearly ZEV requirements (including ZEV’s, Enhanced AT PZEVs, ATPZEVs and PZEVs). Of that 12%, 0.79% must be ZEV. Any type of ZEV may be used Type V – 300+ miles range “fast refueling” – Credit per vehicle: 7 – Required # 1427 Type IV – 200+ miles range “fast refueling” – Credit per vehicle: 5 – Required # 2000 Type III – 100+ miles range “fast refueling” – Credit per vehicle:… Read more »
Ydnas7

so what happens when no one in California buys their hydrogen vehicles?
seriously, who would buy an H2 vehicle when there is a Tesla Model S

a) Entire USA is covered by Superchagers for roadtrips
b) Chademo adapters are available for Tesla and Chademo is at every Nissan dealer + perhaps 200 more in California etc.
c) California gets some swap stations, so its 90 second to replenish the battery, and it gets upgraded to 85kWh for road-tripping.

It may not be the present, but its coming. H2 vehicles will need to available at a substantial discount to electric vehicles to be viable.

None of these big companies saw the success of Tesla coming. There was an interview with a big wig at VW where he was asked about how well Tesla is doing and what VW would do about it. He just smirked like I imagined all of them would.

Some are waking up. The new head of GM (not a career GM guy, but brought in) seems to want to keep an eye on Tesla.

But, all the plans we see unfolding for CARB-ZEV compliance amongst the auto manufacturers were conceived long ago. The industry ship isn’t going to change course because some talented folks in California are building EV magic. After 2017, it’s hard to say what they will plan. But, if they want to play more they the CARB game (Nissan and BMW are the only two even trying), the Tesla Gen III car will be close to release then.

They better have something at least THAT good, and I’m willing to bet none of them will.

I made a mistake… the penalty is $5000 for each credit not produced, not vehicle. If the Rav4 is 4 credits each, then the penalty to not produce them (and assuming not enough surplus hydrogen car sales in 2015-2016 to compensate), then each not produced Rav4 would be 4 * $5000 = $20,000 penalty for each car not produced, in addition to the credits that would need to be purchased on the open market.

Also, I have no idea how many Toyota iQ EV’s they can credit, presumably at 2 credits each.

Also, the 0.79% of total production is also credits, not cars. So, 100,000 cars sold in California in previous years means that 790 credits must be earned for pure ZEVs. If the Rav4 is 4 credits, then 197.5 Rav4 EV with “200 mile range” must be used pure 100,000 cars. Excess credits of pure ZEV’s can be used for the 12% to 16% overall CARB total low emission cars (all variables) percent of fleet sold in California. Types of required and allowed vehicles: ZEVs, Enhanced AT PZEVs, AT PZEVs, and PZEVs:

2012-2014 = 12% with 0.79% ZEV only
2015-2017 = 14% with 0.??% ZEV only
2018-2021 = 16% with 0.??% ZEV only

Ok, again, just the penalty part, and assuming that there isn’t enough other cars sold (iQ, other unnamed EV, or hydrogen car through 2016), with 2000 unsold Rav4 EVs, each receiving the most likely 3 credits each, then:

3 * 2000 = 6000 credits * $5000 = 30 million just in penalties!!!

Now, those Tesla credits would have to be nearly free to offset the costs!! Of course, if we throw in all the real Toyota costs and expenses that I didn’t add, it’s still possible.

Dan Frederiksen

Just goes to show how stupid it is to do half hearted compliance cars. Especially an ugly SUV like that which is very costly in batteries due to its wasteful nature.
Hiring Tesla to do it seems particularly dubious since they are known for poor bean counting skills.
When you have the ZEV incentive, why pay that to weasel out when you can try to save that while getting some experience with making electric cars which are inevitable anyway.

It’s fascinating to see how these multibillion dollar companies are so inept.

“I think one of the reasons the Rav4 isn’t selling well is that most people interesting in EVs can clearly see that this is a half-baked effort on Toyota’s part, which leads to half-baked design and quality.”

Agree 100% Evil Attorney. I think if this vehicle was done the opposite way and Toyota provided Tesla with the RAV4 gliders, finished the car themselves and offered it for sale just like the Model S then it would be selling much better and would be much better quality.

The money Toyota didn’t have to pay Tesla plus the money Tesla would be paying Toyota for the gliders and all the extra servicing costs Toyota in accumulating now could have just went to pay the fines for non-compliance. Toyota would have saved money and we probably would have a much better EV that anyone, anywhere could buy. Unfortunately with the X coming out next year Tesla probably would have had no interest in doing this in the first place, but it’s an interesting thought. I probably would have bought one of the first ones available myself.

evnow

Toyota will continue to make & sell EVs – apart from H2 cars (if they ever actually make it). It is simply not possible to sell enough H2 cars to make the required numbers beyond 2017.

I expect them to make a PIP with a longer EV range (20 or so) and a BEV by 2017.

Yes, without any changes in the mandate, the 2015-2017 CARB requirements will demand Toyota get serious about EVs. When the RAV4 EV debuted, it seemed to me like a easier conversion for them, but also a sure platform to not take away/distract from their hybrid lineup.

Whatever BEV Toyota is working on for 2018 model year needs to get started now, just as Tesla does.

It’s not a stretch to imagine that Toyota would simply buy Tesla Gen III cars and put Toyota decals on them and sell them at California dealers stating in 2018. No R&D, compliance assured, and they didn’t get their hands dirty with bad battery electric cars. Win for Toyota, win for Tesla. They could slap Lexus decals on some, too, with whatever upgrade that would deem them worthy.

I’m sure Toyota will do some BEV, but I suspect it will be the “tiny box on wheels” concept to get compliance as cheap as possible, like the iQ currently is.

evnow

You can’t sell enough tiny EVs to get required numbers after 2017 – 12%(IIRC) !!

While Tesla Gen 3 rebadge is possible – I doubt it. May be a Lexus.

Still I think Toyota has to be thinking about making a Prius EV.

I own one new and one “classic” RAV4EV, and I’m very happy with both. The new RAV has been highly praised by those of us who have found it.
The clear difference between Toyota’s slow sales on their EV versus the plug-in frontrunners is that Toyota is reluctant, while Tesla and Nissan are focused on making a profitable business with electric cars. Toyota and the other plug-in laggard OEMs have a few choices:
1) get serious about making and selling Plug in cars
2) buy credits from a competitor who is serious
3) pay the fines
4) waste an unseemly amount of money on fuel cell science projects

Long term, they’ll be shooting themselves in the gas tank if they don’t develop a position in the plug-in market. The door has been cranked open after decades of talk. Global warming, enegrgy security, and pollution concerns are all interesting, but fact is electricity is much cheaper than gasoline, and car consumers will switch en masse to plug-in cars purely because of the savings. One step past Nissan, Tesla’s cars prove a compelling point by simply being the best cars on the road.

Rceldib

I too have a RAV4 EV which I have had for 5 months. I got a 2012 with an aditional $10k off from Toyota. I have had zero problems and absoultely love it. I have a 2012 Ford Focus EV too and I love it too but if I could only have one of these two I would go for the Rav4 as it has way more power, handles as well, has way more room and more range.

Koi zilko

Just crashed my five month old Rav4EV…2012 .I notice there is nothing on crash testing this car. Any one have an idea how the battery would do. The body shop claims they will fix the car but I’m weary of how the car will perform being that there is no data available!! Would the body shop determine if the battery is good still. Are they even qualified to do that.
I had just 10, 000 miles on it and i love the car 🙁
Any ideas? ?
It was a rear end collision… the front is a mess and a crack in my windshield.

Koi zilko

Just saw this on you tube. I guess it is possible that my battery is untouched 🙂

Stan Honey

I have a Rav4EV and love it. I routinely drive 120 miles on an extended charge and agree with Tony’s estimate of 142 max range. The charge timer in the car is inconsistent and the sound system would benefit from a volume control and tuning knob but I’d buy the car again in an instant. Other than the charge timing I’ve had zero problems with the car. I use a CS60 evse with a relay on to control the charge timing which works fine. I expected more problems with a low production car but overall have been impressed and delighted.