FINAL UPDATE – Full Tax Rebate Available Through December For Tesla!

JUL 2 2018 BY WADE MALONE 188

However, because of the unusual circumstances, we will be waiting for official word from Tesla before updating our Plug-In Sales Scorecard.

FINAL UPDATE 7/12/2018: Tesla never gave us an answer either way, however there is good news. In our follow up post we came to the conclusion that it was likely Tesla passed 200k deliveries but that due to IRS rules, they may not have passed the 200k threshold for tax credit purposes. Now Tesla has posted on their U.S. Website that the tax rebate will be available through the end of December! 

Needless to say as a future Model 3 owner, this has me thrilled. It looks more likely that I and others looking for the Short Range 3 will have access to at least the 50% rebate. We have updated our follow up post with more information here

UPDATED 7/8/2018: Tesla released numbers on 7/2/2018 much earlier than we anticipated. (I stay up past midnight finishing off our Tesla estimates… and I could have just waited 8 hours for the final numbers!) The official numbers show our Model 3 estimates for the quarter were spot on. Model X and S numbers also met our expectations.

Q2 deliveries totaled 40,740 vehicles, of which 18,440 were Model 3, 10,930 were Model S, and 11,370 were Model X.

Our initial estimates posted 7/2/2018 for the US in June and Canada (Late May + June) can be viewed below. After reviewing the numbers released that same day by Tesla, we have updated our estimates in the Plug-In Sales Scorecard. Model 3 US estimates were increased by 12 units. X + S numbers were adjusted based on official numbers and after receiving new VIN info.

We have also provided an updated article explaining that it is possible Tesla has crossed 200,000 deliveries by our criteria, but the IRS may have specific criteria in determining when the 200,000th vehicle is sold or if a vehicle counts towards the total at all. Until Tesla or the IRS makes a statement, we cannot be sure they have triggered the 200,000 rebate. Check out this article for a bit more info about what we found.

We will provide additional updates as we parse any future info released by Tesla. We also reached out to them regarding the 200,000th sale and will update this article if we receive a comment.

Tesla and General Motors are both going to pass 200,000 US sales in 2018. This will have major implications for many buyers hoping to receive the full $7500 credit. If you are not familiar with the U.S. federal EV credit, check out the article here.

Why we believe Tesla has passed 200k

In order to estimate Tesla deliveries, we pull information from multiple sources around the web. A few of the factors we consider when making our estimates:

  • Expected weekly production
  • Deliveries by state and country
  • Average delivery time
  • Number of VIN numbers reported for delivery in a month
  • VIN ranges in a month
  • Statements by employees, Tesla or Elon Musk

Estimating June deliveries is far more difficult than usual for many reasons. Tesla had a 5 day production shut down in late May that would surely impact Model 3 deliveries in June.

Tesla also changed their VIN assignment timeline in June. Previously, owners waiting on their vehicles would be able to view their VIN weeks ahead of delivery. But this month, many owners were not receiving their VIN numbers until 5-10 days before their scheduled delivery.

The accelerated time frame between VIN assignment to delivery means less people have reported their delivery info. However, the growth in VIN numbers appears to have continued as usual. Below is a rough approximation of VIN ranges assigned between April and July.

Model 3 average VIN by month

Extreme high and low VINs are not included in the above graph since they are typically outliers.

June was also the first full month when deliveries were made outside of the United States. The initial push of Canadian deliveries was very strong, but by mid-June had dropped significantly.

Our sales estimates for June

For June, we expect about 6,050 Model 3’s were sold in the U.S. We also believe that approximately 2,250 made their way to Canadian buyers this month. (Mostly to Ontario.)

Model 3 Delivery Locations in June 2018

The drop in U.S. deliveries is not unexpected considering exports and a late May production shutdown. While U.S. deliveries of the Model 3 are lower than May, we believe overall deliveries are up to about 8,300.

Model X and Model S sales in the U.S. appear to be up slightly over last year as well. We are expecting 2400 Model X and 2900 Model S made their way to U.S. buyers.

Why our normal measurements might not show an intentional delay

In any normal month we’d feel 100% confident with these numbers as is. However, this is not a normal month. With Tesla changing how it assigns VIN numbers and Canada getting their first Model 3s this quarter, matters have already been complicated over previous quarters.

More important is Tesla’s 200,000th sale. Production certainly has not stopped and deliveries have not stopped either. Canadian deliveries appear to have returned to normal levels after a brief spike in late may and early June.

The only way Tesla could have delayed any further would be by stocking vehicles for weeks. Would the company be willing to halt sales in order to extend the availability of the full tax credit? Perhaps. I have certainly been hoping they would do so.

If Tesla chose to re-schedule or delay most of the deliveries planned for the last week of June, it might have been possible to push back the 200,000th sale to July. Unless the buyer reports the change there is no way for us to know it has occurred. So our traditional estimate methods may not apply if Tesla has taken this action. But we do not have enough evidence to make us believe this occurred.

Historical numbers

The other wildcard is historical numbers. When estimating deliveries over the course of 7 years, there is going to be a margin of error. We do not know the exact number of roadsters that would have qualified for the credit for instance. The breakdown of U.S.-bound S/X sales is estimated as well.

While Nissan and General Motors (until recently) always provided exact sales numbers, Tesla rarely has. So estimating Tesla deliveries is tricky business. InsideEVs gained a reputation for providing not only the best initial Tesla estimates, but for keeping the numbers updated over time when exact numbers are provided or leaked.

In the hands of Jay Cole, the site historically made U.S. sales estimates that were intentionally conservative. So the likelihood of estimates being significantly overestimated is small but worth noting.

We believe Tesla passed 200,000 U.S. sales in June

So what will the final Q2 Model 3 numbers show? We have provided our estimates. While I would personally like Tesla to delay until Q3, I’m also happy to see the company continue to grow and expand during this exciting time.

Given the unusual circumstances, we are going to delay updating the sales scorecard for Tesla for a few days. Once we receive quarterly numbers from Tesla this week, we will compare them to our own and update the sales chart with our final numbers. We are hoping that they will provide guidance on whether they have passed 200,000 or not as well.

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188 Comments on "FINAL UPDATE – Full Tax Rebate Available Through December For Tesla!"

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ffbj

I think they will hit it on July 4th independence day, as a sort of joke from Elon. Independence from gas and oil.
All along I’ve been trying to dissuade people from the notion that they would hit the goal before the end of the quarter, and now I guess we will know pretty soon. They seemed to be making a lot of moves not to deliver in the U.S. and someone there knows how to count.
Btw it’s deliveries not sales, in the U.S. They have a lot of cars sitting on lots.

The point I am trying to make is that there is not any reason to delay the sales numbers since that is not what is being measured. Sure you have to sell them first, but actual delivery to the customer is what counts.

BroncoBet

Sales numbers are deliveries.

We use sales and deliveries as synonymous. Not production, orders, deposits, etc. That car has to be completely sold and in the owner’s hands to count.

I’m just clarifying that a “sale” must be delivered to count as a sale. Not a $3,500 deposit and config and it’s sitting on a lot. We don’t call that a sale and neither is anyone else that is tracking deliveries. So to be clear, in our book a sale is a delivery and a delivery is a sale. It has always been that way at InsideEVs. I don’t want the issue to get blurred.

Nix

I wonder if it is that cut and dry when it comes to the IRS and compliance with IRC 30D? Technically the full amount of money for a car sale doesn’t actually change hands from the bank to the car dealership (or car company in Tesla’s case) until the loan is actually funded.

Or another way to put it, when you go into a car dealership on a Saturday and sign a sales/loan agreement and take your car home, the bank doesn’t magically instantly transfer funds.

Instead the loan has to go through underwriting to be approved. And then only after approval does the bank actually transfer the funds to the dealership or to Tesla. Technically the sale isn’t complete until that transfer is done.

I only bring this up because I checked the official IRS numbers that Ford reports, and I can’t make them match up exactly to the scorecard numbers. It seems like there is some discrepancy on what quarter sales are getting credited in the scorecard, vs. what Ford reports to the IRS, and I can’t get the numbers to balance:

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/irc-30d-plug-in-electric-drive-motor-vehicle-credit-quarterly-sales

Very true. And we know Ford is spot on with our chart since numbers were all supplied directly via their rep. Like I said, it will be up to the IRS (not Tesla) to decide when the number is officially hit. While Tesla surely has a running tally, there is a lot of “this and that” in the language and you have corporate sales, etc. Some Roadsters counted and some did not. It’s not going to be really cut and dry, and then the timing that you’re suggesting likely also comes into play. It’s definitely messy. I’ve been on the phone with Tesla already a few times to try to sort everything out.

Nix

I see MoMac’s post below too about not counting the sale until the car is registered. That would confuse things even more.

I’m glad you guys are the ones trying to sort this all out!! I don’t envy you on that.

In the end it could entirely be possible that Tesla crossed threshold for 200K sales early last month, and yet still not triggered the IRC 30D sunset provision. All just because of some arcane IRS bean counting.

With that, I think I’m going to shut my brain to all of this and stop thinking about it. It hurts already.

David Green

Something I just thought of that is a possibility, there could be many Tesla’s that sold to people who were retired, not working, or did not know how to claim the credit, which could mean Tesla still has a ways to go even if they sold well past 200K cars??? What do you think of that possibility?

Even if the credit isn’t claimed, it still counts as a car that was delivered and qualified for it. All deliveries count regardless of the person’s tax situation to claim the rebate.

David Green

Darn, I thought maybe there was a loophole….

Jean-Pierre White

No the iRS do not determine when the 200000 hits. Tesla is required by law to declare when that occurs. It’s all in the tax code. Google is your friend. Tesla are also legally required to tell the purchaser what the max tax credit is for the vehicle you buy from them, Tesla have to report the vIns to the IRS, which the iRS cross check when you claim the credit. If your VIN is titled while the full tax credit is available you are entitled to claim up to max amount if your tax liability is sufficient.

Right. I was stating that, in the end, even when Tesla provides the number, the IRS still has to sort it out and make the final call. So, many people will likely still be fine due to the cross-check and timing. When we release final numbers and FACT, we will assure that all details are spelled out. The article was simply about the fact that we believe they’ve surpassed 200k sales. We also published another piece stating it could go either way. No worries.

eotosho

hi steve. why are you deleting inconvenient comments and blocking users from posting?

I didn’t delete or block anything. The system may have caught some up. We had a huge amount of comments yesterday due to the Tesla report, and will all week because of sales. I’m waist deep in sales, so I haven’t been able to be heavily invested in the comments. If something didn’t get through and should have, I apologize.

Peter S

Also, to clarify from an accounting perspective: a sale must generally be recognized upon delivery (technically it’s a sale when ownership and risk of loss transfer to the buyer). So the sale is determined by when the car changes hands, not the money. It is possible for title and risk of loss to transfer before the buyer physically takes possession of the car (e.g. while it’s being shipped), but my guess is that if Tesla counted in transit vehicles as sold the IRS would say that they also counted as delivered.

Mark

However, this is the first time the IRS is going to rule on this in a practical case as to the day a sale/delivery took place. Usually would take the manufacturers word unless contestedI would think

BroncoBet

19 upvotes for completely missing the point,Loveday spells out the facts below.

Nix

4 hour gap between the OP and Loveday’s post.

I think ffbj meant the same thing I was saying and just stated it differently. There’s a whole lot of confusion out there on just the words “sales” and “deliveries.” The Tesla situation makes it even more confusing because they “sell” cars and people pay a deposit and configure, but the “sale” isn’t complete for awhile. My guess is ffbj’s statement, as well as people’s up-votes are suggesting that they all have the same CORRECT understanding of the difference. It was just stated in a way as to accidentally confuse.

ffbj

Well, I certainly did not mean to stir up a hornets nest, but maybe it was good thing after all, as it led to a clarification. I was not clear on the whole sales/deliveries, But thanks for giving me the benefit of the doubt.

No worries at all! That’s our job.

TL

Here is how the 2018 Delivery numbers look based on the article:
Additional 11,350 in June plus 194,021 for a cumulative 205,371.

2018 U.S. SALES/JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
Tesla Model 3*  1875 2485 3820 3875 6250 6050
Tesla Model S*  800 1125 3375 1250 1520 **2900
Tesla Model X* 700 975 2825 1025 1450 ***2400
Tesla Monthly 3375 4585 10020 6150 9220 11350

TJKR

Tesla could have easily exported a majority of Model S and X to Europe and Asia and pushed a couple of thousand deliveries of Model 3 to first week of July to get under 200K. If they are only about 5000 off, and potentially 64000+ customers would get extra $3750 off their car, this was a no brainer.

Michael

Yeah, that whole “export to Europe and Asia” thing is getting more and more complicated with the orangutan running things.

Jean-Pierre White

The iRs code counts a vehicle when it’s titled to the owner, which can be up to 30 days after it’s driven off the lot. No need to panic folks, Telsa are not dummies or ignorant of the law.

Doggydogworld

Another guy who tracks VINs thinks Tesla delivered a couple thousand more than he expected. He says his cumulative count is probably off a bit, perhaps some early cars don’t count for some reason. It makes no sense for Tesla to push into Canada, etc. then miss by a couple thousand.

Pushmi-Pullyu

It certainly made sense for Tesla to make a push for deliveries in Ontario, due to the high demand there fueled powered by the expiration of that province’s EV incentive.

Of course, those who were hoping that Tesla would delay passing the 200,000 milestone until July will say “But why help out Canadian buyers and not American buyers?” Because, of course, shifting ~2000 sales to Canada this month didn’t hurt Tesla’s income for the quarter, but stockpiling cars rather than selling them certainly would have.

Will

Yelp they needed to sell the car, it’s not Tesla fault that people wanted this car and people were slow to reserve

Doggydogworld

Shifting Model 3 sales to Q3 would hurt Q2 revenue but have almost no effect on income.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I guess you mean almost no effect on annual income; it obviously would have an effect on quarterly income.

We can argue all day about whether Tesla should be so focused on quarterly income, but the fact is they are. Tesla wouldn’t have built a (presumably partial) assembly line under a tent if they were not desperate to maximize sales for the month!

I can’t see how anyone can reconcile in their mind the huge discrepancy between Tesla building the partial temporary assembly line under the tent, with the idea that Tesla would stockpile thousands of cars and not sell them until July.

Obviously the tent setup cost Tesla money and time and resources, not to mention probably adding to the stress of a lot of workers and executives; why do that if it would only increase the number of cars they would have to park in lots for weeks?

This whole “Tesla is going to stockpile cars” scenario hasn’t made any sense for weeks now.

BroncoBet

I can’t believe they went over when just a few days would have earned them so much money, if so, good call!

Pushmi-Pullyu

Tesla doesn’t get a penny of the Federal tax rebate. It all goes to customers. Tesla benefits only indirectly. And whether or not the Federal tax rebate is in existence for the 4th quarter of this year won’t affect Model 3 sales at all. Demand will be much too high for Tesla to satisfy either way.

Arguably, though, the lack of the full rebate may affect Model S and Model X sales for the 4th quarter.

I really think that it’s not so cut and dry for the automaker to even know 100 percent for certain how many “deliveries” count as far as the IRS is concerned. This is based on the fact that some Roadsters didn’t count and financing situations may stall the sale (like Nix said). Some cars sold in one quarter may actually get recorded by the IRS in another quarter. Big mess! If I was Tesla, I’d be pulling my hair out to make it all work out right, but may still find out that I failed. Or, I’d say “screw this,” it’s way too hard to put a finger on it and the IRS isn’t on top of it at the moment so we give up! Really, no clue or way to know for sure.

Nathanael

Tesla knows exactly which Roadsters counted. It depends on what year they were delivered and whether they were delivered in the US; Tesla has the records.

Yes, Tesla knows, but we don’t have a 100 percent accurate record.

BroncoBet

Yeah,but Tesla knew.

PeteP

A lot of the cars sold in the last few days will not get titled till July, and so will count as July sales not June for credit purposes. The speed of this titling process varies between States. Hence why the IRS in the 30D credit guidelines specifically mention STATE titling rules. Because they know there is no blanket process for the entire country. Also why IRS give manufacturers till last day of July to report numbers because they know it is difficult to collect accurate data across all States. Don’t ask me how I know 😉

Crazy and true right!?

LanceT

Don’t get state registration confused with transfer of ownership/title (e.g., search for “IRS appeals ASG plug in credit” to see a discussion by the IRS about this topic). The state titling rules are mentioned, because state law dictates contracts/sales. Almost every state has adopted article 2 of the UCC, which describes transfer of legal title to goods. While it’s possible that some states interpret a sale differently, it looks like the general rule under the UCC (at least for these contract-for-future-goods situations) and according to the IRS is that a transfer of ownership/title occurs when there is “a shifting of the benefits and burdens of ownership from a seller to a buyer” (the IRS’s language, not mine). I interpret this to mean at delivery. Considering that Tesla controls all deliveries, I would be very skeptical if they didn’t know how many qualifying sales (i.e., deliveries) there had been (although it’s possible for some fudging due to vehicles being sold in the U.S. for primary use outside of the U.S.).

Pushmi-Pullyu

I think Nathanael has it right. At least according to what I’ve read, the IRS doesn’t go by what banks report to them, insofar as whether or not an auto maker has reached the 200,000 milestone. The auto maker reports the number of U.S. sales directly to the IRS. Any delay in a bank filing for the tax rebate shouldn’t matter.

Tesla will certainly know what the sales number is that they report to the IRS!

BroncoBet

Yes,math is hard although this isn’t even arithmetic but simple counting, yeah,easy to believe a high tech firm like Tesla,can not distinguish between such high mathematical concepts like 199,701 and 200,114. Elon was wasted on coke and he fired everyone else, it’s the only explanation.

Cavaron

So we have ~28,500 M3 produced in Q2 and we have ~11,150 in transit at the end of Q2 (both numbers from Tesla) and we have ~10,000 already delivered in Q2 (based on insideevs score cart). That leaves us at about 6,700 M3 for this month… maybe most of them went to Canada?

David Green

Your math does not account the over 2K Model 3’s in transit to start Q2,

Cavaron

The transit ones from the start of Q2 should have been in the delivery numbers of the first month of the quarter – but I guess there are about the same amount of cars in transit from may to june – so yes, it should be 8,700 M3 deliveries for this month. Hopefully many of them went to Canada, like most of MS and MX sales in june hopefully went to Asia and Europe…

R.S

They better have close to 0 S and X sales in the US in that case. They have had about 6k left for July, so maybe 5k 3s and 1k S and X? I doubt they would have been able to deliver 4k Model 3s in Canada, they just lack the people and stores to do so.

Like I said, it likely won’t matter. The way the IRS language is written, even if they went over by thousands at the end of June, there’s potential that it might not impact people. Again, we are still working on the article and the numbers. We promise to deliver it and spell it all out when it’s complete, but we’re not going to publish it when it’s unfinished.

G2

We are certainly seeing many more TM3 in BC these days and our club in Victoria has taken on at least 3 in the last month that I’m aware of. Canada is happy to help our US cousins by taking as many as Tesla can ship to keep more of you in the tax sweet spot😊

TwoVolts

We will know if you are correct very soon. If Tesla winds up just past 200k by a small amount, I will view it as a management failure.

Chris

Roughly speaking, 7000 cars per week x 1/2 the credit of $3,750 is $341 million dollar loss of tax credit incentive for a qtr. I do not believe that Tesla would be so foolish to deliver the 200k car in the U.S. at the end of the qtr.

Ziv

I think that Tesla originally thought that 200k was going to be delivered early in Q2 of this year. As the ramp up delays manifested themselves, that date kept sliding to the right. Unfortunately, I don’t think they realized how little in the way of delivery delays it would take to move 200k delivery into Q3 until relatively recently. And it may be that they simply did not have the corporate agility to shift their target from maximizing the speed of the ramp up to moving the 200k’th delivery into Q3.
I think there is still a good chance that they will delay 200k until this week, but it is looking grim. That would be a ton of money they could have saved their reservation holders. Hundreds of millions of dollars squandered.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Hundreds of millions of dollars squandered.”

Perhaps this is nit-picking, but I think your number has one too many zeroes on it. I think the amount would be less than $100 million. Let’s not forget that not all American buyers qualify for the full $7500 tax credit. Some qualify for only part of it, or none.

Ziv

12 weeks of additional purchasers getting the full credit. 12 weeks * 6k deliveries per week in the additional quarter of full credit, i.e. extrapolating that there will be just 6k per week in Q4 of this year, which is pretty conservative. If you are buying a Tesla, you are very likely to qualify for the full credit.
( approximately 72,000 additional deliveries * 0.8 qualify rate) * $7500 = $432,000,000
Plus, can you imagine what the delivery rate will be in Q2 of 2019 when the credit would have been half credit, (if the 200k was delayed by a week or so), instead of a quarter credit? The credit is a gift that keeps giving and it costs Tesla next to nothing.

kbm3

It will be more than that if the tax credit stays in effect long enough. The reduced credit is shifted out 3 months, so Tesla should be selling more vehicles per month that would qualify.

Also 13 weeks/quarter not 12.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Management “failure” implies you think Tesla should have delayed things just because some customers wanted them to. But I’m sure Tesla’s stockholders, and investors*, are glad they didn’t!

*Well, the real investors, not the short-sellers. Boo Hoo! for all the money the latter are losing! 😛

Ziv

Push, I agree with you more often than I don’t, but on this issue I do disagree. The idea that delaying deliveries for a week to 10 days while gaining hundreds of millions of dollars worth of additional credit money for their buyers is a bad idea is penny wise and pound foolish. I think Tesla may miss this opportunity to lock in a huge benefit for their buyers, but I am still hoping they seize the day.

“some customers” is a strange way of looking at 70,000-75,000 additional buyers able to qualify for the full credit, while moving the sales just a week or so to the right. 😉

Pushmi-Pullyu

The thing is, there is almost no discussion of this subject at all except on EV forums. Tesla’s investors and its stockholders’ don’t care. My daily survey of Tesla related news via Google news hardly shows any media buzz at all about it. The subject didn’t even come up at the last Tesla stockholder meeting, and it’s very notable that (so far as I know) Elon has never volunteered any statement about it in his tweets. A recent IEVs article did mention a very brief response Elon once gave to a Twitter question about the matter, but so far as I know, that’s it.

I realize this is an important issue for many, many Tesla reservation holders, but outside our EV enthusiast bubble, it’s just not an issue people care about.

Tesla needs to do what’s best for the company. Unfortunately, that’s not always what’s best for its customers.

BroncoBet

That’s because one of the core competencies of Tesla is gaming government subsidies, along with raising capital, to think they could fail at so easy a task,is mind-blowing,we still aren’t sure. If true, imagine Tesla’s dereliction of duty for not informing current configures who just lost$3,500 by sending in money now for cars they won’t get until after Sept 30th?

Pushmi-Pullyu

At some point, those in denial are going to have to start facing the reality that:

(A) Tesla did pass the 200,000 milestone in June, and

(B) Tesla did so with full knowledge and intent. Not by accident or carelessness!

Then, and sadly only then, will those currently in denial stop talking about Tesla “failing at so easy a task”, and start actually thinking about what Tesla’s real motives are here.

Jean-Pierre White

@pushmi

You are no doubt correct about when Tesla delivered their 200000 vehicle. The tax code counts registrations of title transfer not sale’s or deliveries.

Tesla has 30 days to Title vehicles after they drive off the lot.

Tesla know what they are doing.

LanceT
I’m not sure where you are getting your information about registrations. Did you read the tax code? It talks about title, not registration. When it says title, it is referring to legal title, not registration. The IRS hasn’t been silent on this subject (e.g., search for “IRS appeals ASG plug in credit” to see a discussion by the IRS about this topic). The state titling rules are mentioned, because state law dictates contracts/sales. Almost every state has adopted article 2 of the UCC, which describes transfer of legal title to goods. While it’s possible that some states interpret a sale differently, it looks like the general rule under the UCC (at least for these contract-for-future-goods situations) and according to the IRS is that a transfer of ownership/title occurs when there is “a shifting of the benefits and burdens of ownership from a seller to a buyer” (the IRS’s language, not mine). I interpret this to mean at delivery. Considering that Tesla controls all deliveries, I would be very skeptical if they didn’t know how many qualifying sales (i.e., deliveries) there had been (although it’s possible for some fudging due to vehicles being sold in the U.S. for primary use outside… Read more »
darth

The federal EV tax credit is not a subsidy for Tesla. They don’t make any money from it.

McHoffa

Elon specifically said they would take a hit in a quarter to maximize customer happiness in regard to the tax credit.

David Green

Thats not exactly what he said…

BroncoBet

He implied it.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Citation, please?

If Elon said anything even remotely close to that, then I think it would have been reported and heavily discussed on IEVs.

Mil

If the 200,000th car was due to be delivered in the first half of the quarter then I doubt Tesla would stockpile but given it was due end of the quarter, I doubt they would have delivered the 200k th car at the end of the quarter. We’ll find out soon for sure but I’m almost certain they’ll deliver the 200k th car very soon now.

Especially since Elon did tweet about “doing the right thing” with regards to the US EV tax rebate.

scottf200

ir.tesla.com — “The high number of customer vehicles in transit for Model 3 was primarily due to a significant increase in production towards the end of the quarter.”

Pushmi-Pullyu

That’s always how it works for Tesla at the end of a quarter. SOP (Standard Operating Procedure) for Tesla.

That’s one of the things that makes estimating deliveries so difficult!

Someone out there

18440 doesn’t even make 2000 per week, despite Tesla claiming they entered Q2 with over 2500 per week, been at 3500 for at least a month and then pretended that they did 5000 the last week.

bro1999

We all know these peak rates quoted (~5k end of this quarter, ~2,500 end of last quarter) are burst rates and are not sustainable rates.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yes, the burst rates Elon brags about at the end of every quarter are not sustainable in the short term; not for another couple of months or so. But obviously not everyone knows that.

Caracul

It’s a shame that you are so obsessed with them “pretending”. If you had some intelligence, you’d have seen that they have 11,000 in transit. Not only that, but they had two shut downs for improvements to the line. But sure, assume that this is smoke and mirrors and one massive scam.

Tech01x

Production is 28,578, or about an average of 2,500 to 2,600/week accounting for their shutdowns. That is well over the exit Q1 rate of around 2,000/week.

BroncoBet

18,440 3’s delivered in Q2 13 weeks in a quarter is an average of 1,418 a week, they should be able to beat that in the third quarter.

BroncoBet

1,418 a week within a standard deviation of Tesla typical overstatement.

arne-nl

You’re confusing production and deliveries.

Ocean Railroader

Here is a story that Panasonic might have to put more money into the giga factory due to the Model 3 production eating it out of house and home https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/07/02/panasonic-mulls-further-investment-in-tesla-battery-gigafactory-as-shortages-loom/

The Model 3 is eating so many batteries that there is nothing left for the battery storage business.

Also Tesla is looking at building a Giga Battery in California https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/07/02/tesla-vistra-and-energy-storage-taking-center-stage-as-pge-seeks-latest-worlds-largest-battery/

The new battery will release a 180 megawatts of power into the grid four hours after sunset.

Pushmi-Pullyu

This is certainly one time I would have been happy to be wrong. There are a lot of Tesla Model 3 reservation holders who are going to be disappointed to learn that they are not going to qualify for the full $7500 tax credit; that they would be eligible for only half of it, if they take delivery after circa Sep. 30 of this year.

bro1999

If Tesla did deliver car #200,000 last month, it’s all but guaranteed that no one expecting to buy a $35k Model 3 will be eligible for the full tax credit.

Ziv

I still think that the $35k base model 3 will be a rare bird.

Will

I will still buy the base, just the base. No autopilot crap. It’s still better then ev out there

Mark.ca

You may not want AP but you will want ACC once you try it (on any manufacturer that has it), maybe some memory seats if married. The base might be too basic for 2018.

Michael Will

Autopilot is a huge part of the value proposition. Its like saying you will buy your iphone without a simcard, because you have wifi anyways, who needs that LTE crap.

BroncoBet

You sure?

BroncoBet

Yes,quite a few sent in another $2,500 which is non refundable with uncertain delivery dates, if Tesla has passed 200K in Q2 and doesn’t deliver until after Sept 30th,there will be an extra $3,500 they re out.

Darth

No they just get less off of their taxes in april 2019. They are not out anymore money not does the car payment change.

BroncoBet

Yes,but you are the only one who sees it that way, certainly not the purchasers.

Keith Franklin

The site to configure a Model 3 is estimating delivery from Oct 1 through Dec 31. The pricing is still using the full $7500 tax credit. Now if the estimate is correct and 200K was hit in June then the tax credit will only be $3750. Just seems unlikely that the site would not be updated at least with an asterisk saying if delivery is after September 30 2018 then tax credit will be $3750 instead of $7500. Basically if they are still using the $7500 number they didnt hit in June or Tesla is false advertising.

They don’t have to share or disclose when they hit, and they may not even know for sure since the IRS makes the final determination. Yes, they SHOULD make buyers aware, but they are under no obligation to do so and the logistics are an absolute nightmare. And, some people ordering could have been under the radar at the same time another person is ordering and has surpassed. Also, the delivery window may say September, yet some of those people are already getting their cars or did in the last few days, so to pinpoint who does and doesn’t get the full rebate based on the timing of delivery etc. is nearly an impossibility.

Will

When Tesla is going to start leasing the 3 any news on that or do I need a leasing company for that?

Nothing concrete.

Will

Thank you

Pushmi-Pullyu

Last I looked, maybe a couple of months ago, no leasing company was offering a lease on a Model 3, and nobody at the Tesla Motors Club reported getting a lease on a Model 3.

I found it surprising that nobody had at that time gotten a 3rd party to underwrite a lease.

sojourner

Remember, once the phase-out periods have started, it is only the date of delivery that matters as far as the tax credit is concerned. It does not matter which vehicle is delivered earlier before the deadline. One would think tracking the delivery date should be easy for Tesla. It’s a bit like buying a house. The buyer needs to sign a bunch of stuffs. The closing date should be unambiguous to the seller.

My understanding of the point in OP, which I tend to agree, is that Tesla would have profited unjustly from nonrefundable deposits or relunctant purchases by conveniently keeping the $7500 figure instead of updating it to $3750 if they knew they had already reached 200k in US. Had Tesla never mentioned $7500 during the configuration, the responsibility would have rested solely on the buyer. However, they did use the $7500 figure to their marketing advantage, so they should have responsibility to update that accordingly.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I find this expectation of instant change on a website to be unjustifiable. Companies generally don’t have such changes queued up, to be triggered instantly at the flip of a software switch. Perhaps in a perfect world that would be the norm, but in this imperfect world it isn’t.

I think most judges and most courts would give Tesla at least a few days to make the appropriate change, especially when — as has been said — it’s up to the IRS to issue an official ruling.

Dr. Strange

Tesla could fix this rather simply by making the $3500 deposits refundable, if the projected delivery date pushes you out of your expected tax credit window. You know they’re not actually starting to build your car tomorrow if the expected delivery window is Oct-Dec, so it could be made refundable up until the point they actually start building your car, at which point they will have a much better delivery date estimate. But by making it refundable, they probably can’t count the deposit as income for the quarter.

Keith Franklin

Lets also add with the over 15K of cars that have been shipped but not delivered that means even at the 7000 produced the last week this is over 2 weeks of production that have not been delivered. 1 weeks is reasonable, 2 weeks is crazy, over 2 weeks is nuts. If they ended up going over 200K when they didnt deliver the last 2+ weeks of production then they better have gone over a bunch.

Will

Canada didn’t have the numbers to support the LR 54k without dual motors it seems or not then Tesla could’ve hold off tax credit 200k

sean

I don’t think they hit. It would be a severe management issue if they did cross 200k at 201k. I have a feeling they shipped to everywhere but US customers to avoid it. They may have cars on the lots waiting for shipping overseas or possibly battery packs. A stockholder doesn’t care -where- the car is sold and I don’t think Musk does either.

Hop
I agree with you that I don’t think they hit 200k this quarter. To add to this discussion, I configured on 25 APR (2 months ago), and still don’t have a delivery date. I did get an email from Tesla that I finally have a VIN (30XXX) and am in the process to schedule for delivery this month (July). What I found interesting was scheduling is being handle by Tesla in Nevada and not at my local Tesla in Tempe, AZ. I even called Tempe to try and expedite the process and they told me to wait for Tesla in Nevada to setup the date. This leads me to believe that delivery scheduling is centralized, which would make it a lot easier to control the delivery numbers. I also don’t truly believe that it was demand outstripping production for the last batch of invites, because Tesla just opened up configuration to everyone on the wait list and there have been folks that have configured last week and are scheduled for deliver the first and second week of July. This suggests that Tesla produced more cars than they actually had orders for, and were storing them in lots awaiting the actual… Read more »
Bonaire

Thank you for posting this. It appears all other news outlets have not considered printing such a thing.

Terawatt

8,300 in 4,3 weeks is nearly 2,000 per week. And unless we think Elon wasn’t merely very deceptive, but actually outright lying when he tweeted the 5,000 in a week was achieved, that’s only 3,300 over the 3,3 other weeks of June.

It is moving the right way, thankfully. But it sure isn’t going as fast as Tesla for some incomprehensible reason keeps pretending. Is wall street actually fooled? If not, why continue to annoy people in this way?? And if it does, isn’t that illegal, or at least obviously unethical??

I guessed ten thousand for June, but then I for some reason thought production was going much better and they would really achieve the 5k milestone, or get very close. Now we know they couldn’t do that by building the cars the way they intend to going forward, and it seems they are pretty far from it, too.

I really hope July will have more than this incremental progress to show. Maybe it won’t matter much in the long run, but I am so tired of the disappointments.

arne-nl

Elon was tweeting production numbers, you’re talking deliveries. They’re not the same you know. Seems to me you’re the one here trying to be deceptive.

Martin Lacey

Why I believe insideevs is wrong for the first time ever:

15,058 vehicles were classed as being in transit, 7,000 of which were made in the last 7 days. IMO Tesla will breach the 200,000 threshold very early in July.

Jean-Pierre White

Nope insideEVs have it pretty close.

N.B. it’s when the 200000th vehicle is Titled that counts. Tesla have 30 days to submit paperwork for the vehicles it sold.

Leafowner

I just wonder if someone buys a Tesla and does not apply / qualify for the credit in their taxes — does it get counted?

Robb Stark

Yes

Ziv

Robb is right. The full credit limit is predicated upon the amount of cars Tesla sells/delivers in the US after January 1, 2010, whether the buyer/leaser (leasee?) applies for the credit or not.

steve

“This will have major implications for many buyers hoping to receive the full $7500 rebate”

Nice that your estimates are so close. But, please, for the love of god, do NOT use the word “rebate” when referring to the Federal tax CREDIT. Why? Because there is already enough confusion regarding the CREDIT. As you know, a taxpayer has to have a tax LIABILITY of at least $7500 (or whatever the current credit is for a quarter) to qualify for the CREDIT to apply against that liability. :>

Don’t forget you are a NEWS SOURCE! You are setting the bar. :>

Leafowner

And – IMHO — Tesla knew exactly how many they could have delivered in June to stay under the 200k limit — thus the MASSIVE invitations that went out at the end of the month and why they could deliver these cars in DAYS — since they were already sitting there waiting to go…..A friend of mine got invited to configure just last week and she is getting her car on the 6th (in Atlanta) so the car was already either already in Atlanta or very close…..

sojourner

Just talked to a couple of representatives at a Tesla dealership in CA. They said they expect to hit 200K in US this week. Not sure how accurate this is.

Rafael Sabatini

Congratulations on breaking this before LoveFest Fred– Over there they are basking in the false sense that Tesla “intentionallY” missed their US target while “beating” the self-imposed 5000 number.

In reality, it sure looks like you are right. They narrowly missed the 5000 number (by about 5 hours) while triggering phase-out of the credit. I can see no reason they’d intentionally try to hold back on delivering the max they could in the US.

Great call and great work!

Jean-Pierre White

Despite delivering the 2000000th vehicle before the end of June, they didn’t trigger the phase out period.

The iRS counts vehicles when the title is assigned to the buyer, which can be 30 days after the sale.

Michael Will

So looking at Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard and at the announcement by tesla “Q2 deliveries totaled 40,740 vehicles, of which 18,440 were Model 3, 10,930 were Model S, and 11,370 were Model X”, does that mean that deliveries for June are 8315 Model 3 (not much more than May’s 6250 estimated), 8160 Model S (much more than May’s 1520) and 8895 Model X (much much more than May’s 1450) ?

Isnt that quite the surprise, that they scaled up Model S and X deliveries in the US by that much? I am glad I doubled down this morning on some of my calls whose premiums got trashed on the drop.

Benz

Delaying the delivery of the 200,000th Tesla in the US was not a priority for Tesla.

That’s the reason that they did not do that.

Too bad

Nix

Unfortunately it looks like only Ford, MB, and BMW make their US numbers that go towards the fed. tax incentive public:

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/irc-30d-plug-in-electric-drive-motor-vehicle-credit-quarterly-sales

For grins I did a quick validation of Ford’s reported cumulative sales totals for each year on the IRS site vs. the insideev’s sales scorecard numbers, adding them up as a single running total, and they didn’t match.

2012 — off by 1,000
2013 — off by 6,500
2014 — off by 4,000
2015 — off by 8,000
2016 — off by 4,500
2017 — off by 3,500

I don’t know if there is some funny math that car makers use when reporting to the gov’t, but it doesn’t seem to match up with the scorecard. Hard to know if Tesla is in the same situation, because they aren’t one of the 3 companies that report through the IRS official site.

MoMac

Someone stated that the federal government is going by new vehicle registrations for a given manufacture to determine when 200,000 sales are reached. So some of the cars sold in June and registered in July (or later) would not be counted towards 200,000, if this is true.

I am not sure if this is true or not, but someone claimed that this is what a Tesla employee stated when he picked up his Model 3.

Also, Tesla Roadster (original roadster) sales only count starting in Jan 1, 2010. I assume that insideevs have this correct, but do not know.

Exactly. As I keep saying, it’s very very far from cut and dry. I can’t imagine the IRS is super helpful and in a huge hurry either.

2xTesla

That’s non-sense. Per IRS. Automaker has to report number of vehicles SOLD, and the IRS doesn’t care how many are registered.

The automaker is supposed to report, yes. However, the IRS can use vehicle registrations as a check after the fact. Some automakers are reporting through the IRS site. As shown above, the reported numbers don’t necessarily match the automaker’s EV sales. Tesla is not one of the automakers reporting through the IRS, so who knows exactly how much that will impact the timeliness of the data. People should be able to go on the IRS site any time they want and see how many qualifying cars an automaker has sold. Being that Tesla doesn’t provide that data publicly, it may be a long time before we know the details.

Nathanael

The IRS officially goes by “when the title transfers under state law”, which varies by state. Just to confuse things further.

Yes, it’s definitely a messy situation.

Jean-Pierre White

Google 30d ev credit. It’s spelled out what they consider an aqisition to be. Point of vehicle title.

Todd

That was a lot of words to say that you don’t really know.

Don Zenga

Tesla has crossed the 200,000 mark which means the $7,500 Fed rebate will go down to $3,750 starting 2018-10-01.

18,440 Model-3 sales is amazing. Still they were able to maintain a high sales of Model-S @ 10,930 and Model-X @ 11,370.
40,740 deliveries in 2018-Q2 is really sweet.

So Tesla is able to give their news 1 day ahead of the other automakers.

Jean-Pierre White

No it won’t.

SJC

As the tax credit lowers so may the price of an average Model 3.

LanceT

I agree. The tax credit may not affect whether or not I buy the car, but it definitely affects the options that I select.

Nathanael

Credible reports indicate at least 2800 Model 3s sent to Toronto and at least 800 to Vancouver. You’re underestimating Canadian deliveries.

There was only one reason to divert cars to Canada: to avoid hitting 200K.

Also, the early Roadsters don’t count towards the credit… and the end of Roadster production was shipped entirely to Europe.

I would be very surprised if Tesla had passed 200K, because it would indicate miscounting by Tesla, who has accurate numbers, unlike you.

Like I said, we’ll have to wait and see. We’re providing researched estimates and speculation for our readers since Tesla won’t provide them.

We have every hope that Tesla stayed under the number. We want to believe that and we are pushing hard for it. However, we’re also providing both scenarios and backing the possibility up with estimates. Yes, we better believe that Tesla has accurate numbers, and, of course, ours are estimates, which have matched up well over the years and been adjusted quarterly to reflect any discrepancies. We don’t claim that we’re right. We’re just continuing to do the service we’ve provided for years. If Tesla was more transparent and reported numbers through the IRS or disclosed US deliveries, this wouldn’t even be a discussion, but that’s not the case. Since it’s the most prominent player in the segment, we’ve had no choice but to estimate in order to offer our monthly sales chart. We’ve known for years that this day would close in on us and we haven’t been looking forward to it. It’s a ton of work to provide the estimates and keep the chart up to date. All we can do now is wait and see.

peteP

You guys do a great job on US numbers. How accurate is your research for Canada? I have reasonably good accounts of ~4k total between BC and Ontario. You can add some Calgary and Montreal to that also. Don’t know the numbers for those areas though.

We feel pretty confident, but, like we said, some cars that went out in the final days may not have been calculated in our estimate. This is part of the reason we haven’t put it in the chart yet. The same goes for international deliveries of the S and X. We are still working through that data, as well as Canadian Model 3 sales.

Kum

If Tesla know that they will reach 200K by June, then there is no need for them to stockpile 10K model 3s and 3K model S&X.

Seven Electrics

I find it funny that Musk claimed a Goldman Sachs analyst was in for a “rude awakening” for predicting 22K Model 3 deliveries for the quarter, when it turns out they actually delivered only 18K. Burn of the century, indeed.

arne-nl

You’re confuising deliveries and production (like so many others, why is it that people can’t remember the difference?)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-says-naysayers-apos-190342517.html

They were talking about production numbers, not deliveries. Production was >28k, so Musk was right.

I find it funny that you’re so desperate to peddle negative news about Tesla.

Dan F.

Unless the people running Tesla are idiots the 200,000th sale did NOT occur in June.

Benz

First of all I must say that it’s a pretty stupid Federal decision to set a maximum number of Plug-In cars sold/delivered per car manufacturer (200,000) as a decisive measurement for deciding until when the sale/delivery of a certain Plug-In car is eligible for the $7,500 tax credit or not.

What you would want to have is a clear situation. There should be no discussion about it.

What they should have done is that they should have set a fixed date until when Plug-In cars are eligible for the $7,500 tax credit.

“All Plug-In cars sold/delivered until 31 December 2019 (or another year) are eligible for the $7,500 tax credit.”

And then they could have further decreased the amount per year.

The current fuzzy situation would not have occurred.

Roy_H

Very disappointed. I was sure that Tesla would wait until July to hit 200k. Tesla has announced that they delivered 40740 cars this quarter. Based on insideEVs tracking this brings it up to over 219,000 less about 5k gone to Canada. This means that tens of thousands of people will miss out on half the federal tax credit. Also most of these people are the more cost sensitive purchasers of the lower price car.

We’re not 100 percent sure yet. We’re still talking to Tesla and working numbers. Stay tuned!

Jean-Pierre White

Don’t worry. Tesla have 30 days in most states to submit registration/title transfer. That’s what the IRS define as an aquisition.

Jean-Pierre White

The IRS code specifies the time a vehicle title is registered as the point a vehicle is counted towards the 200,000. Tesla may have delivered into customers hands the 200000th vehicle in mid June and still not trigger the phase out period of the tax credit. A dealer has 30 days to submit transfer of titile paperwork to the state.

We’re good.

Benz

That makes it possible for Tesla to transfer thousends of Tesla’s from a certain date in June to a certain date in July?

Wouldn’t that be suspicious?

No, it’s when the new owner completes the registration process. We’ll be publishing an article about it in the coming days.

Benz

That would be great, thanks.

Jon Erickson

Could cars Tesla used as loaners and then sold not be eligible for the tax credit?

Andrey Pozdnyakov

It’s a bit strange, why nobody read IRC 30D text: “For purposes of the 30D credit, a vehicle is not considered acquired prior to the time when title to the vehicle passes to the taxpayer under state law”
https://www.irs.gov/businesses/plug-in-electric-vehicle-credit-irc-30-and-irc-30d
In California, where Tesla’s are mostly sold, you have 90 days to get the title.

Exactly. We’ll be publishing our final report card tomorrow with Tesla numbers. Following that we will be providing an explanation of how the tax credit situation works and whether or not people will be impacted.

rgarcia0228

We need to look at total sales with at least a 30 day delay. In other words, look at total sales as of 30 days ago. Thirty days is the average time to get a vehicle registered with a state, most states take around 30 days to process the paperwork but some states like California can take as long as 90 days. For example, in Ohio, it took 28 days to get my “Registration” for my Model 3 in the mail, two days later my permanent tag showed up. My estimate is that Tesla has “Sold” 206,000 vehicles in the US as of June 30th, however, only about 195,000 have completed the state registration processes…..So we are good, full tax rebate for every Tesla sold through the end of this year!!!!

We are working on the article with that information. However, now others are second-guessing the IRS language once again. We will publish the analysis later today.

Ketter

Question: Do cars sold to businesses count?

Doug

Time to put an “updated update” at the top to show that this article was wrong since you still link to this article from https://insideevs.com/top-6-automakers-200000-federal-tax-credit-limit/