When An Analyst Gets It Right: Tesla Model X Delayed Until Fall 2015


Tesla Model X

Tesla Model X

Props go out to Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley for getting it right.

Back in mid-October, well prior to Tesla’s Q3 earnings call, Jonas put out a note that USA Today summarized as follows:

An influential analyst is warning of a “reasonable risk” that Tesla will again push back the expected delivery date of its Model X electric luxury crossover. Now, he hints, deliveries might not start until the fall of next year.

Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley told investors in a note that the “slight delay” until the third quarter will help ensure quality and performance in the initial units.

As it turns out, Jonas was spot on, which makes us wonder if he has some insider info.

In the note, Jonas stated that his position on the Model X being delayed wasn’t shared by Tesla at the time.  Back then, the automaker insisted that the Model X would not be delayed yet again.  Well, when Tesla’s Q3 conference call concluded, the world learned that the Model X was to be pushed back at least one more time.

Despite the delay, Jonas remains extremely optimistic that the Model nX will be a hit:

“We expect the Model X to go dynamite fishing in the global premium SUV segment.  While the entry price could be 5% to 10% above the entry-level (listed manufacturer’s price) of today’s Model S, we expect the Model X to be loaded with far higher levels of standard equipment, particularly in areas of comfort, safety and drivetrain.”

Source: USA Today

Categories: Tesla

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13 Comments on "When An Analyst Gets It Right: Tesla Model X Delayed Until Fall 2015"

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Model X looks awesome I feel sorry for the Porsche Cayenne the direct competitor, it will be painful.

No alleging impropriety, here. Just observing that Jonas has been a Tesla bull ($320 target). He works for Morgan Stanley, who was the underwriter Tesla chose to float their (~2bb) convertible notes.

…they call it the Chinese wall. Buy-side analysts call it “sell-side research”.

Love the “dynamite fishing” analogy. 😀

Giving “props” to that kneepad-wearing sell-sider is beyond laughable. A few weeks ago he was sure they’d be selling 35,000 cars this year too. (They’re not even going to do the reduced guidance of 33,000.) Jonas won’t downgrade TSLA until it’s in bankruptcy court in 2019, unable to pay off all the convertible debt.

TSLA can’t be forced into bankruptcy by the 2019 notes. The terms of the debt specify that Tesla gets to decide if they repay with cash, equity, or some combination of the two. If Tesla has no money in 2019, the debt will turn into stock, so default is unnecessary.

Why not just day trade Tesla stock. That way someone can make money whether the stock goes up or down.

I would hate to be a short seller and keep being burned time after time as I doubled down to recoup losses.

There are lots of other stocks to short besides TSLA, if shorting stocks is your game.

I predict that it will rather be late Q4 or early Q1 2016.

Will I also get an article once I’m proven right? 😛

Sadly, I’m going to give you props now (this likely wont be the last delay).

Tesla needs to stop slipping on the Model X. If it slips into ’16, it will start to encroach on the Model 3 and then that starts to slip. The design and engineering teams need a clear calendar in the second half of 15, all of 16 and the first half of 17 to be able to deliver the 3 in 2017.

I’ll have to go back and find the link, but I called late Q2 for the very first few production models to roll off the assembly lines to start filling orders in Q3 of 2015.

I also called the 3 to be Q2 to Q3 of 2018. As Model X began to slip into 2015, then it was clear that an expectation of a whole new platform rolling off the lines prior to 2018 is an insult to intelligence and common sense.

The article is really not about the Tesla Model X at all… It’s all in the title; this time an analyst (maybe) got it right.
– That’s the news 🙂

And in January 2014 I predicted a delay to 3Q15 as well: http://www.thestreet.com/story/12287319/1/explaining-teslas-model-x-delay.html

“As it turns out, Jonas was spot on, which makes us wonder if he has some insider info.”

Or maybe he’s got really good intuition, particularly concerning Tesla.

Ummmm, how do we know if he was “spot on” until they actually start selling them?