Ward’s Auto: Electric Motor Production to Double by 2020

DEC 13 2013 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 5

Graphic Provided by Ward's Auto

Graphic Provided by Ward’s Auto

Recently, Ward’s Automotive took a predictive look into the future production of various sizes of engines.

BMW i3 Motor Production

BMW i3 Motor Production

What Ward’s found is somewhat surprising.

For example, Ward’s predicts that “half the light vehicles built globally in 2014 will have engines with displacements from 1.0L to 1.9L, compared with 49% in 2013.”  Okay, so that’s only a slight uptick overall, but it seems quite the feat when you look at the BIG picture, which basically says that come next year, the majority of global light vehicles will have engine with 1.9 liters of displacement or less.  Oh, and that 1% or so increase still translate into an annual production increase of like 15 million 1.0- to 1.9-liter engine by 2020.

Ward’s further predicts that BIG engines will continue to lose popularity as the years pass on by.   In fact, if you look at the graph above, only two categories improve from now through 2020: 1.0- to 1.9-liter engine and electric motors.

Though the graph doesn’t represent it well, Ward’s says production of electric motors will double between 2013 and 2020.  Electric motors are predicted to control 6% of the market by 2020.

That 6% figure is tricky to work with though, especially when one considers that hybrids (both conventional and plug-in) feature both an engine and an electric motor.  If electric motors were only used in BEVs, then that 6% figure could be utilized to a greater degree in predicting plug-in penetration.  Let’s just be happy that production of electric motors are predicted to double over the next 7 years.

Source: Ward’s Auto

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5 Comments on "Ward’s Auto: Electric Motor Production to Double by 2020"

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Jouni Valkonen

It is silly. Today BEV popularity increases at the rates about 300 % per YEAR. In 2025 there is about 50 million battery EVs produced.

Bonaire

No, this statement is not sustainable. Plus, sales in 2013 have barely come close to doubling in the usa for electric cars. Look at this site’s monthly score cars. No way we see doubling next year. Maybe 55% increase in the usa. Worldwide, where economies are more strapped except in Norway with heavy incentives, this graph from Wards seems acceptable. They are well versed in the auto industry. You cannot wish EV growths into existence to fit our desires. I wish more were sold but they won’t be.

Brian Henderson

First: EVs use “motors”, not engines!

As @Jouni, the points out, Wards data for electric motor production is flawed. In May 2011 there was ~35,000 EVs in U.S. In May 2013 the number had grown to over 100,000 and will exceed 175,000 by year-end!

Beyond this, Nissan stated it had added a 3rd shift to its TN LEAF motor plant and is now sourcing materials in U.S. This can be interpreted as a 150% increase in production capacity. Elon recently stated that 600 Model S’s were being built per week, up from ~200 per year at the end of last year. Perhaps e-motors are under the radar of traditional engine manufacturing?

Bonaire

Brian H, i presume you are also the one that posts on the Tesla forum, so I will try not to make a spelling mistake.

Tesla was producing 500 this year at the end of Q1 and have reached a week or two “near 600” as Elon inferred. This is slight growth and should not compare to Q4 directly during ramp up. Tesla as a current producer is right about four full quarters of production and hitting a slow growth stride. Maybe 700/wk is possible by end of Q4 but requires more labor, more input parts and more service centers and superchargers downstream to continue growth. Next year, they will hit 30,000 sales and that is commendable growth over this year’s 21500. 50% sales growth is very good.

Bill Howland

As far as Teslas are concerned I would doubt the motor is the thing holding up production. Teslas true to their namesake have just plain old induction motors ( with copper rotor bars ).

I’m sure the electronics modules and the battery manufacture and assembly are bigger bottlenecks. But they should be getting more proficient a\t it.