VW Boss: Tesla Controls 50% Of EV Market, We’re Aiming For The Rest

JAN 27 2019 BY EVANNEX 229

VW talks dieselgate, automaker’s woes, EVs and even Tesla.

Volkswagen has a history of sending mixed messages when it comes to EV strategy, competition from Tesla, and the company’s murky ties to diesel. Motor Trend recently sat down with Volkswagen of America CEO Scott Keogh to get his feedback on a number of issues facing the automaker.

Above: Volkswagen of America CEO Scott Keogh (Image: Fortitude)

*This article comes to us courtesy of EVANNEX (which also makes aftermarket Tesla accessories). Authored by Iqtidar Ali. The opinions expressed in these articles are not necessarily our own at InsideEVs.

Keogh calls Dieselgate, “the ultimate betrayal.” He admits, “we made VW un-matter to people. When companies get into crisis mode, they climb into a bunker, and they lose their mojo.” In response, Keogh says VW recently changed their advertising agency.

Moving forward, Keogh says, “We’re going to operate as a company that matters and is ethical, and we’re moving into EVs, and hopefully we’ll get that redemption. Our German uniqueness and quirkiness, depending on its application, is 100 percent good and necessary because it’s a distinguishing factor.”

Above: VW’s EV charging network, Electrify America, just had to shut down all its 150-350 kW fast chargers over a safety issue (Source: InsideEVs)

When asked, specifically, about VW’s electrification strategy, Keogh remarks, “We are arriving with a proper VW at a VW price, at a time when market sentiment and reaction and consumer sentiment is building.” Nevertheless, as head of North America for Volkswagen, Keogh sees the real opportunity for electric cars in China.

“There is no debate China will be the explosive EV market. And they need a lot of EVs due to congestion, smog, and autonomy. They missed 20th century auto. They want to win ‘new auto’—EV, autonomous, connected,” says Keogh. He adds that China’s EV policies help, “Sometimes policy needs to give innovation a leg up… When you have policies, and particularly (China’s) policies, it can stimulate consumers to follow those policies.”

Above: Tesla’s Model 3 (Flickr: Marcus Zacher)

What about Tesla? Keogh says, “Right now market share is 50 percent Tesla and 50 percent everyone else. Who is going to win the other 50 percent? That breakthrough product has not arrived yet.”

*Editor’s Note: EVANNEX, which also sells aftermarket gear for Teslas, has kindly allowed us to share some of its content with our readers, free of charge. Our thanks go out to EVANNEX. Check out the site here.

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Source: Motor Trend

Categories: Tesla, Volkswagen

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229 Comments on "VW Boss: Tesla Controls 50% Of EV Market, We’re Aiming For The Rest"

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I’ll believe them when I see their EV’s in their showrooms…

They’re waiting for you’re approval

Still waiting for the 110 kWh “VW Bueli Bus!” I saw it in person at NAIAS, DETROIT, so long ago, I think it was 2015 or 2016!

2016 was a long time ago? A new from the ground up car is normally at least 4 years development so I would assume an entirely new type of car with a different form of propulsion would take at least as long. I just wish they’d sell the Neo in the States.

The Bulli concept was actually 8 years ago….and still waiting.

https://www.wired.com/2011/02/vw-bulli-concept/

Building it with the technology available 10y ago would make it a non starter. It only makes sense for VW to build it if they can sell it in numbers comparable to the T5/T6 series.

What new unique groundbreaking technology do they have now that they didn’t 8 years ago

Customers

Batteries at about one quarter the price they were then,

Wow, that did not stop Tesla.

Tesla also didn’t start with a utilitarian vehicle driven mainly by tradesman.

Tesla also haven’t made profit until 2018

You missed a key point. VW never said they would produce that car. It is a concept, many never get made.

At the very least, VW always broadly hints that its concept cars will actually be produced, even when they absolutely have no such plans, because they know they’ll get more attention that way.

For example, Wikipedia says “In September 2008, Autoblog reported that the Microbus Concept might actually be produced…”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Microbus/Bulli_concept_vehicles

I don’t recall car makers ever making 100% of their concepts

Tesla? Thus far, the only models they’ve made that haven’t actually entered production yet are the 2020 Roadster and the Semi.

If you include images of vehicles they’ve shown but not put into production yet, you can add the Model Y and Pickup (although it’s unclear how serious that Pickup image was.)

Anyways, no reason yet to not expect that Tesla won’t bring all four of those vehicles to production in the next few years…

When that absurd image of a pickup-inside-a-pickup was shown at the Tesla Semi Truck reveal event, didn’t Elon say something like ~”This is how one of our artists imagined the semi as a pickup”~ …?

Anyway, I think he made it pretty clear that it wasn’t intended to be taken as an indication that Tesla actually planned to produce such a vehicle. Seems very odd to me that some are treating the image as if it wasn’t a joke.

Details on the base Model 3 from the UK website:

Designed to attain the highest safety ratings in every category, Model 3 achieves 220 miles of range while starting at only 35,000 USD before incentives.

Reserve your Model 3 today. Deliveries in Right Hand Drive markets begin in the second half of 2019.

Which features come standard with Model 3 for $35,000 USD?
Model 3 is designed to be the safest car in its class, with 220 miles of range, and zero to 60 mph acceleration in 5.6 seconds. Standard features also include full self-driving hardware, Supercharging capability, a rear Glass roof, a 15” touchscreen display, Wi-Fi and cellular internet capability, free over-the-air software updates via Wi-Fi, full LED lighting and an 8-year, 100,000 mile battery warranty.

I haven’t noticed any other auto maker always trying to leave the impression that their concept cars might, or probably will, enter production. Other auto makers are content to let their concept cars be just concept cars.

VW is the king of vaporware. In fact, does “VW” stand for VaporWare? 😉

Ah, those good old times, when VW Jetta was the green leader…

https://www.wired.com/2008/11/and-the-green-c/#previous0d52acc4057e6af6d1910801c107cdf5

The deception is stunning…

Agree on the Neo. It is super close to what I have been waiting a decade for. So they aren’t not going to bring it to my country. Great.

True. Building Ev on the scale that VW is talking about is not ‘initially’ done faster than a ICE vehicle. Simply because the launch of a new ev, new platform at volume also requires building out the battery manufacturing infrastructure on a global scale for profitability. That process in itself will take a couple years to get phase I complete, then there is the training with the new technology. On top of that VW is launching EVs across so many brands all at the same time, which takes even more time, so hopefully lessons learned transfer from brand to brand. I do the get why so many are so uncure about VWs ev plans when they have no time only built battery and ev manufacturing plants, and not only show multiple driveable concepts, but the press are actually able to drive preproduction models already. Along with VW being responsible for building out the ev charging infrastructure globally. It’s all happening now. The Porsche Taycan and Audi GT look to Ben great premium EVs. The I.D. Brand with the high volume hatch, sedan and lower volume bus, along with asked a variants will offer the broadest lineup of EVs available from… Read more »

VW completely scrapped their EV plans in Mar 2016, so I wouldn’t expect to ever see it. They seem to be sticking to the new plan they came out with later 2016, with the first car coming now late this year or early next (ID Neo). If you are referring to the new ID Buzz they showed in 2017, I think that is 2022.

2017 IIRC? And they never claimed it would come to market before 2022. (They showed earlier, less interesting iterations before — but these didn’t yet mention a 111 kWh battery, nor when/if it would go into production.)

VW’s Bulli concept van was first displayed in 2011. Later developments of the VW microbus/ van design were the 2016 BUDD-e and the 2017 I.D. Buzz.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Microbus/Bulli_concept_vehicles

That’ll be the concept vehicle they said would be unlikely to go into production right?

You will have a long wait I guess…

Well I am the BUYER, they are just one of the sellers out there. If they want to make sales they better work for my approval.

I’ll believe them after my first test drive of anything other than an e-Golf.

There are already first drive reviews on the nearly production ID Neo… Obviously you won’t be able to get an official test drive until it ships late this year (or maybe early next year). That model is not for US though, so have to wait another year or so if you are in the US like me for ID Crozz.

Just a bit more waiting. The Neo is going to be launched this year.

The Neo, unfortunately, is not planned to come to the U.S. Disappointing to me! We will get a raised CUV version, the Crozz. We can hope that the Neo will come later but, unlike Europeans, we may not be willing to pay enough for a compact car to allow it to be sold profitably here.

I agree. I have a 2016 Golf SE and I won’t be looking to replace until at least 3 years from now so hopefully it’ll be here by then. I only drive about 5,000 to 6,000 miles a year so I won’t really need one but …

Shame, the US EV market is growing enough to grab just about any long range vehicle that comes to market.

The Bolt EV doesn’t sell well here, and it is the home market.

If you want something to sell great, design it great. The bolt isn’t a good looking car, which is a shame, because it’s tech is excellent. If they want any meaningful sales numbers, then either redesign the car, or cut 10 grand off the price.

If you want it to sell well, then get your salespeople to do a good job first. I would have a Bolt right now except the salesman told me I had to wait a year for delivery. This turn me off, but then he started spewing out lies to try and sell me a Volt that he had in stock.

That is when I decided I did not want to buy a car that the local dealer who would be servicing it was willing to lie to me before I even bought anything.

I think the message from Bolt sales is rather of ambiguous. GM hasn’t really tried that hard to sell it, and they don’t even make enough to sell more than they have. When more go to Korea, fewer go to U.S. lots.

At this point we haven’t really seen anyone besides Tesla actually try aggressively to sell EVs. Until we do, we can’t really say for sure whether it can be done. The car companies are afraid to commit at this point because they don’t really make money on their EVs, once that changes I expect their attitudes also change.

Don`t worry, it will happen soon. And than it will become avalanche. Tesla should be scared.

They’re too busy trying to fulfill their backorders to be scared. Tesla s not scared in the least.

That explains cutting back on Model S production?

Tesla certainly isn’t cutting back on Model S production because it’s worried about competition from Volkswagen!

In case you hadn’t noticed, there is a downturn in new car sales, and the premium/ luxury car market is being hit especially hard.

I never said they were cutting back on production because they were scared of Volkswagen. He said they were too busy trying to fill back orders to worry or be scared but obviously that’s not the case with all models. Also the inability to mass-produce cars at the level others can is part of the reason there’s such a problem with back orders in the first place

Tesla should be scared? No. Toyota, Ford, and some other major legacy auto makers should be scared. Tesla is leading the way, and VW is just following.

They have 20 imaginary cars at least one per month.

“That break through product” will arrive EVentually!

I welcome the uniqueness and quirkiness of the distinguished Germans, to give Tesla and the Chinese EV competitors, a compelling line of EVs, that will spur the other existing legacy ICE OEMs into trying to lead the competition.

Frankfurt Motor Show 2013:

“We are starting at exactly the right time,” said Group CEO Martin Winterkorn before the show.

“We are electrifying all vehicle classes, and therefore have everything we need to make the Volkswagen Group the top automaker in all respects, including electric mobility, by 2018.”

So what you’re saying is there working on Elon time? he’s late but he delivers and all that well anyone who thinks that they’re not really moving on the meb platform isn’t paying attention but who cares what they think anyway as far as I’m concerned cuz they’re never going to buy one regardless

What is the challenge, is the whole EV thing is new, different, and unfamiliar! His date was as if it was Old, Usual, and Consistent, with ICE development! They are discovering it’s not.

So you’re saying he should display a pessimistic defeatist attitude? Of course they knew it was different but you should show confidence. Doesn’t Elon always get praised for setting unrealistic goals that Tesla then scrambles to meet?

He gets praised when he finally meets them, yes. VW has yet to meet any of them. Elon has had 3 models come out in 6 years from being a startup and has met these goals even if late. VW keeps setting goals for EV domination and keep making compliance EVs like the Golf.

You keep ignoring their new ID models that they have stuck to their plan with, have high volumes planned (100,000 first year for the Neo, which is next year). Yes, they have changed plans, they aren’t stupid, they saw the impact the Model 3 had and adjusted accordingly. Their billions and billions of dollars of money being spent on EVs in the coming few years show just how serious they are. That ID Crozz is going to be a huge hit in the US, especially if they get the price/features right. They will have a strong fast charging network when it ships, the prototype looks great. Comes down to price and marketing I think. I will likely get it or the Model Y, depending on price, features, availability.

I’m only proclaiming my skepticism. I wouldn’t bet money that they won’t someday get to high production numbers. But I am skeptical that they will be dominating anytime soon. It’s just not that easy to ramp up one model to Model 3 production numbers much less a whole line of models in a 2-3 year time frame. We will see if VW can actually secure the supply chains and cell numbers they would need for hundreds of thousands in not millions of battery packs in such a short time frame. Longer time frame, yes since the entire industry will be moving that direction. All I’m saying is talk is easy but moving a publicly traded old auto manufacturing company into a new direction with all entities needed on board in order to make everything actually happen will be practically impossible in the short run. Tesla has done it out of sheer will for survival because their life depends on it. Every single breath and movement is done with the purpose to succeed in making long range EVs. A large company like VW is already making profit on other products for the shareholders and company leaders so the urgency isn’t the… Read more »

Well of course , they are less desperate

VW has what, $48 Billion in battery contracts over the next 10 years or so? That is a bit more than talk…

I agree the investors tend to make it more difficult to change direction. It would be like trying to get Tesla to consider ICE vehicles (or PHEVs), it is not going to happen. This example is a bad example as they would never do that anyway, but saying it would be a similar difficulty to get investors to consider the move prudent as it is for GM investors to convince GM to produce EVs. For some reason, VW seems more willing than some of the others, but I hope they don’t restrict vehicles to China only, or only bring super expensive electric vehicles to the US.

That is still talk, until the batteries are delivered and paid for – it still is just talk.

I have an order for $100,000 batteries!

See what I did there, just talk! I don’t have $100,000 to spare just like that. In real life I am building power packs but my biggest order was $800 for one order I took delivery of for a power pack.

When the batteries are delivered, then VW’s claims mean something.

It’s kinda hard to just back out of multi-billion dollar deals made between massive global companies. Even harder to pre-meditate a plot to make such a ruse.

Actually it’s surprisingly easy.

And as a public company you could well be investigated and fined/jailed for lying/stock manipulation if you didn’t have an order for $100,000 of batteries.

If VW release a statement saying they have $48 Billion in battery contracts then they are likely to be able to back that up with a paper trail.

Just think of Musk and his “funding secured” announcement. He fell foul of the above.

Elon hasn’t released anything. Tesla has, it’s a team effort with thousands of people.

He is the CEO and was Chairman, and makes the high-level decisions, and so from many points of view EM~=Tesla, and common parlance uses them interchangeably. He is the first to recognize is a team effort.

I think most of us are able to make a clear distinction between Elon’s tendency to be overly optimistic about the time required to get a new vehicle into production, vs. the pattern of Volkswagen spokesmen bragging about all the EVs they’re going to put into production real soon now… without having the slightest intention of actually doing so.

Apparently you are blind to this very large difference.

Yeah, back then they still believed ICE conversions like the e-Golf would be enough to become the leader in EVs… Luckily they realised that’s not going to work by late 2015 — a bit earlier than most other legacy makers.

They could only dream of working on Elon time. Tesla was a small time startup whose first major model was being released in 2012 at low volume as Winterkorn made his bold claim. By the end of 2018 only 6 years later when VW claimed they would be the top automaker in electric mobility, Tesla sold 350,000 long range pure EVs for the year. VW is still far behind and still talking big.

Philip d – “Tesla sold 350,000 long range pure EVs for the year”
In 2018 Tesla sold just under 250,000….ur off by 100k there chief.

Dude. That was 8 years ago. Also VW group sold about 100,000 PEVs in 2018 and will easily be north of 300,000 by 2020, which isn’t terrible off when it comes to forecasting that far out. Elon Musk said he’d be producing 10,000 Model 3s a week by about 18 months ago and 20,000 per week another milestone not seen. And 2016/2017 claiming 500,000 vehicles in 2018. Give it a rest.

They also hit almost all of those targets set out by date too.

Just because they missed a couple of targets, and didn’t hit one of their aims doesn’t mean they were just paying lip service/lying.

Elon is a decade ahead of them. That’s Elon time.

Hee, Hee.

You keep reposting this quote, but they scrapped and redid their EV plans in Mar 2016 after the Model 3 was announced. This quote from 6 years ago is meaningless.

Wait, how is it meaningless? It shows a history of making big claims and then scrapping them and making a new set of big claims. They have been doing the same marketing exercise with the Bulli EV electric bus. The original concept for a new microbus was rolled out in the early 2000s as a regular ICE microbus. Then in 2011 they revealed the Bulli EV microbus. Then it was updated with a bigger pack and shown off a few years later in another autoshow. Then it came back as the I.D. Buzz microbus 2 years ago to be due out in 2022.

Because the EV market changed and VW recognized that, I would ignore any quotes about pre 2016 VW and EV. I wouldn’t be surprised if ID Buzz doesn’t ever make it (or changes) but it is the furthest out of the EVs. The ID Neo is already getting ready for production, and ID Crozz isn’t far behind. Audi e-tron is shipping soon. I am not sure the early 2000s ICE Microbus was ever given a green light for production, was it?

The quote from VW shows how VW is “crying wolf” as far back as 2013. Now you’re saying VW changes plans every 3 years; I agree and that’s a great reason why nothing interesting that’s all-electric from VW comes to market.

There is also a matter of cost. There’s no denying anyone who looks at it what an objective I will see that there is a price premium with an electric car due to the cause of batteries. Hopefully the price of batteries will drop quicker than expected and will see price parody but it’s a lot easier 2 hide the cost of a battery in a car that cost $100,000 but when you’re down in the $20,000 up to $35,000 range it’s a lot more difficult. So if somebody comes in looking for a golf and they can get a well-equipped one for $25,000 but then you’re going to sell them an electric version of the same car for $35,000 or more?

Like the $35k Model 3…..

“The original concept for a new microbus was rolled out in the early 2000s as a regular ICE microbus.”

I see Philip D has been paying attention!

I think it’s very strange to see some VW apologists here trying to obscure VW spokesmen’s very pronounced, frequent habit of talking big about putting vehicles into production, but not following through. That’s especially noticeable in all the EVs they’ve talked about producing in the past few years, but it’s not just EVs.

Quoting from Wikipedia:

In June 2002 Volkswagen announced that the [ICEV] Microbus, using the platform of the forthcoming T5 light van, was scheduled for production commencing during 2003 at the company’s Hannover plant, ramping up to 80,000 units annually by 2005. The launch was deferred, however, and the project was formally canceled in early 2005.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Microbus/Bulli_concept_vehicles

So we can not count on they delivering anything? Why not stop making claims until you are ready to follow thru.

We certainly can’t count on VW delivering any EVs simply because they announce they’re going to produce them. There is some real evidence now that VW is actually planning to produce lots of EVs in the near future; evidence such as some very high dollar amount contracts for near-future battery supplies. But that’s the only reason we should take VW’s current announcement seriously, because of all the EV vaporware, the fake promises they’ve made in the past.

You have to ignore both history and reality pretty firmly to claim otherwise.

The only thing that didn’t happen was the electric part. They did however annihilate their competition worldwide and did in fact climb to number one, leaving GM behind to fail miserably. Depending on who is counting either Toyota or VW is slightly ahead of the other. Both make over 10 million vehicles per year. https://focus2move.com/world-car-group-ranking/ or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production EVs are awesome, so is Tesla. But the blindness created by fervor does not help anything. The ‘any day now VW and Toyota…finished!’ Has no evidence to support it. Nor does anyone care about the diesel scandal outside of Europe and a few environmentalists in the US. The United States is quite literally rounding error on VW’s agenda. It regularly gets vehicles 2 years after debut elsewhere. But it is global, and it is everywhere, and it dominates completely in many places. As does Toyota. And that is not going to change in anyone’s pipe dream of a near future. Notice on the wiki graph that during his tenure, VW’s sales grew 100% which is nearly impossible for an old company to do no matter what that company. His statement taken in whole was about beating GM and Toyota. Which he did, and… Read more »

I wasn’t making a claim that VW was finished or that it didn’t increase overall sales of vehicles. I was directly addressing their claims of EV market domination by 2018 only to make a very low volume of EVs by that time. Now they are proclaiming their next masterplan to dominate the EV market again with yet another timeline by yet another CEO.

Maybe they should just make compelling EVs and sell them. When they start making a showing in the sales charts then they could start making bold proclamations about their EV prowess.

Of course they are hesitant as nobody knows if the general consumer wants to pay more to bet an EV version of a car that has less range. Teslas are expensive and causes people to wonder if they’re more toys of the well off and if they just captured a large percentage of a small market, I hope that’s not the case but who knows. If a major manufacturer went all in and totally EV it might not matter in the high end of the market but in the $18k to $30k end of the market their product would be substantially more expensive then the competition.

Well except in Europe, VW sold more than Tesla for 2018, so I think that counts. By more I mean:
1. More total PEVs as a brand than Tesla.
2. eGolf more as a model (not even counting PHEV Golfs). So model with the most BEV.
3. Golf PEV (GTE plus eGolf) greater than S and X combined.

And at least in Europe, there’s no evidence Tesla will EVER beat VW. Story after story here the ‘vaporware’ zealots harm the EV cause with ignorance (and you are correct you didn’t say that so these complaints are not to you per se…same with my Toyota/GM comment). Tesla spent 18 months not selling Model 3 anywhere but North America, but for some reason if other manufacturers do the (rather sane and obvious decision) same thing, they are ridiculed. VW has ramped up EVs over 100% between 2017 and 2018 and likely again in 2019. Kia/Hyundai has produced a veritable onslaught of product into the market the last two years but focused on Korea then Europe and only a trickle into the US because of the rather obvious business case.

“Maybe they should just make compelling EVs and sell them.”

Hear, hear! With all the vaporware VW has emitted about EVs over the last several years, it’s far past time for them to quit talking about it and actually do something.

One of the problems here is the confusion between BEV’s and electrified cars. Most manufacturers talk of electric cars as BEV’s PHEV’s and hybrids (the 2010 Treehugger article also mentions this), whereas you’re presumably assuming they mean just BEV’s.

VW produce far more than one low volume EV. They have a lot of hybrid versions of their full ICE models that they are counting towards their electrified numbers, even if you aren’t

“The United States is quite literally rounding error on VW’s agenda.”

You’re claiming “literally”? Seriously?!?

https://i0.wp.com/www.skepticink.com/incredulous/files/2013/12/im.jpg

VW sold 10x more cars in China last year than the US, and 5x more cars in Europe than the US.

While perhaps not a literal rounding error, the US is a currently a pretty small market for VW.

China: 3.1M
Europe: 1.6M
US: 350,000

Gimmie Gimmie Never Gets ! You Gotta Earn It ! ….. * 🙁 *

I love the ID design. I cannot wait to testdrive a CUV version

Won’t be long now, maybe late next year for ID Crozz in US. I am excited for it and Y, and will probably get one or the other.

Stretch that timeline a little.

That’s fine with me I figure I’ll be looking to get a new car and probably three or four years

What’s “a little”?

Why, they have said late 2020 for ID Crozz shipped from Germany, built in US in 2022. I expect they will be in 6 months of that.

Until 2023 they will sell it in eGolf numbers…unfortunately.

They should be in quite a different price segment I think?

I suspect they will be similar price segments. If ID Neo is around 30-40k I suspect Crozz will be more like 50k, maybe more with larger battery. If the VW is in a lower price segment I would most likely go for it instead, especially if range is over 250 miles and it has 125 km charging.

Maybe it’s a bit optimistic but they have said that the Crozz will be in the same price range as the Tiguan. They’ve also said that the Neo will be similar to a diesel golf and they don’t run $40,000 is far as I’ve seen. That would be the Golf R.

They’ve said the Crozz ( hopefully they change the name ) will be in the Tiguan price range.

I wish they would bring that to the United States in the hatchback version

So in an upcoming interview the actual head of VW will repudiate what has been said in this interview.
They changed their ad agency, well la de da.
I could cast aspersions on VW, but it really is not necessary as they have no credibility whatsoever.

Who knew it was the ad agency responsible for diesel gate. 😉

Why are we even writing stories quoting random VW “bosses”?

You might as well use a random quote generator.

It gives us something to talk about while waiting for VW and other legacy auto makers to actually start selling compelling EVs in large numbers, instead of just giving lip service to that.

I’d put a smiley there, but… it’s not really a joke at all.

I’ve given up on waiting to see them produce EVs. It seems clear to me now that these legacy companies will go bankrupt before they’re produce EVs in meaningful numbers.

Just look at what happened Y/Y in 2018 in the US. 7 brands gained 10% or more while 10 brand lost 10% or more. These are not sustainable losses – it only took GM losing ~10% for everything to crumble underneath them a decade ago and for bankruptcy to be declared. GM is already shutting down factories in the US – I expect we’ll start hearing some more dire news than mere factory shutdowns coming from some of these companies this year, because they didn’t respond to Tesla quickly enough.

So you think GM is closing factories because of Tesla?

GM goes bankrupt and shutters factories because of their own bad judgement. Same reason for posts by “chris”.

I’m not a GM defender but I think it’s clear they’re closing car factories that are making sedans that people don’t want anymore and they’re concentrating on building SUVs and giant trucks that people appear to want. their sales were actually up last year and in the third quarter they sold 700,000 vehicles, personally I think putting all your eggs in the giant truck / fuel guzzling basket isn’t going to pay off in the long run but anyone who knows anything about the business knows that’s why they’re closing the factories that make cars, they’re actually opening other factories to make trucks in other areas. unless you think all those people spending $70,000 on a Tesla sedan we’re also contemplating spending 25000 on a Chevy Malibu…😂

If all the “legacy” manufacturers go bankrupt who is going to be building all the cars in future?

Everyone driving around in Chinese cars?

As the EV Driving Experience gets out there in the public, the luxury driving experience, and the instant torque, I’m sure the market will be too big for Tesla and VW combined.

Model Y will probably get Tesla over 50% mark next year.

Model Y very probably won’t go into production next year. The only way I see that happening is if Tesla installs full auto assembly lines at Gigafactory 1. Tesla may use the Shanghai plant for partial assembly, but almost certainly not full assembly line production for the 2-3 years that Tesla has already stated.

I suspect the Y is further along than people realize. I suspect the y will be available well before the end of the year. March April reveal and almost immediate availability ( within a couple of months) will have a waiting list half a million long.
M3 short range at the same time.

Where are they going to build all of them next year

No , Ybis going to ve made in China and first they start making 3. But the factory is still UNDER CONSTRUCTION. Ready for production by the end of the year

They will make some in China *for the Chinese market*. The rest will still be made in the US. (And possibly in Europe at some point…)

They won’t be making the Model Y in China this year, and altho Tesla may be talking as if they might start production near the end of 2020, I very seriously doubt that, because that’s on “Elon time”. I doubt we’ll see any Model Y’s produced until 2021.

The only way I can see it happening this year is if Tesla installs auto assembly lines at Gigafactory 1. Even that appears quite unlikely as Tesla hasn’t even done a Model Y Reveal event yet.

Unless they have a secret place to build them it is at least 1 year away from reveal to launch.

They already said it won’t be coming before 2020.

Yeah how are they going to get in production by next year? The factory in China won’t be ready by then so unless they drop the Model S and the X I don’t see how itll happen

But Elon Sees! If you or I don’t, it’s OK!
😁

China factory operational by end of this year. Model 3 first and later on model Y and Y only in China ( for the moment)

I don’t think the Chinese factory will be producing cars by the end of the year.

To be clear, Elon said there will be some minimal assembly in China before the end of the year with most of the parts shipped over from USA. Think of this more like some assembly of Models S & X are done in Belgium, to avoid tax and have a “made in Europe” designation.

People who down-voted this comment need to look at what Tesla has actually announced. Chris is correct here.

“China factory operational by end of this year.”

Possibly “operational” in the sense of doing some final assembly work, like Tesla’s Tilburg plant for European “final assembly”, but Tesla has already said that the Shanghai Gigafactory won’t be producing (i.e., assembling) cars in volume for 2-3 years.

Perhaps it shares enough of the platform with the Model 3 that they can pull an S/X or Chevy Sonic/Bolt and build on the same line. Which someone might say immediately Fremont is full. Well ok maybe. But if enough of the parts/process are the same, assembly could be done in Buffalo in that giant empty building they have or there’s been some discussion of using giga1. The drivetrain and electronics are probably nearly identical to model 3. The rest is window dressing.

Alternate theory unsubstantiated by any facts: S/X will get an updated set of motors, batteries, electronics that require a redo of the lines anyway.

What “giant empty building” in Buffalo? You mean Tesla’s so-called Gigafactory 2, which is now busy building solar panels? Somehow, I rather doubt that’s empty. I also very highly doubt that Tesla wants to set up an auto assembly plant in New York State.

Now, doing it at Gigafactory 1, in Nevada… that’s a real possibility. But it can’t happen in stealth mode. That would have to be preceded by a hiring spree at Gigafactory 1. And besides, where is the Model Y “Reveal”? Is Tesla going to put that off until just before they start selling it, contrary to how Tesla has handled every previous release of a new model?

Well, Elon already stated they want Y to begin production before the new Roadster, which was targeted for 2020, if that helps figure it out!

At that time they were talking about Model Y in 2019 or 2020. In the meantime they already said it won’t be coming before 2020. Considering Roadster is lower priority even than the elusive pickup, I doubt it will come before 2021 at the earliest.

Tesla started building the assembly line for the Model 3 in September 2016 and began selling them in July 2017… from what we’ve heard thus far, it sounds to me like Tesla is much further along now than they were in March 2016. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Tesla begins assembling the US Model Y assembly line in March and has cars into customer hands in December. There’s no way that Tesla doesn’t have thousands of Model Ys made per week before the end of 2020.

To be fair, the Model 3 assembly line wasn’t really running until Jan 2018. Yes, they made a handful of Model 3 cars in 2017, but the assembly line was far from finished. As far as I know they don’t even have a place to build the Model Y, if it takes them a year to setup the assembly lines, I guess they don’t even start production until Mid 2020. However, I think they will be much quicker ramping the Model Y than the 3.

I’m sure that Tesla (and Elon) won’t make the same mistakes they did in trying to rush the Model 3 into production, and falling flat on their collective faces.

Unfortunately, given Elon’s tendencies, the chances are that just means they’ll come up with an entirely new set of mistakes in trying to rush the Model Y into production. 🙁 But hopefully these new mistakes won’t result in a 6 month delay.

“There’s no way that Tesla doesn’t have thousands of Model Ys made per week before the end of 2020.”

Well, bless your heart. You must be new here.

They will have over 50% with m3 selling in the rest of the world.
Y will be maded in China so only from next year on. First starting with m3 on China factory and later on also Y.
The US factory will be used for the S/3/X/Semi and roadster 2.0. So busy times.

I think the Semi will be build elsewhere. Trying to assemble semi tractors on an automobile assembly line would be a very poor fit… quite literally.

The new Roadster could be made almost anywhere there’s an empty factory of even modest size. A car made in such low numbers will be more hand-assembled than produced on a mass production line.

Tesla runs the EV market.

Tesla is Daddy.

I guess that everyone else should just throw in the towel then?
Welcome to a boring world.

Nope! They should, as in the movie “Scully”, “Let’s Get Serious, Now!”

Getting Serious, is not as easy for Legacy Public Traded, Auto Makers, as so many think, when moving to BEV’s!!

Suppliers for Piston Engines, will not suddenly be making Motors & Controllers!

Gas Tank Manufacturing is so different than Battery Pack Building!

Charging Infrastructure, is a whole new ball game! Especially, for Condo Owners, Renters (Apartment Buildings), and Isolated Communities!

Lots of things change on the Technology side, alone! Then there is… Customer Acceptance & Comfort with such big changes, en mass, that take time!

Well, I very much hope that VW will actually try to corner 50% of the EV market. I very seriously doubt they can actually succeed at that, but given that more competition is good for the market, I certainly hope they do try! 🙂

As Elon has often said about the EV market: “A rising tide floats all boats.”

But, some Boats, have Leaks! (Dealers! Diesel gate! Charging Accessibility & Costs!)

Ya I hate it when my car needs a part or service and the dealer 5 miles from me can supply it, or one of the other 2 VW dealers within 15 minutes of my house……

That would suck. They should do the service at your home or office like Tesla.

Oh ya no problems with that system…. No waiting for parts. Some things can’t be done, at least not properly, in your driveway.

Many manufacturers actually pick up your car from your driveway and take it in for schedule maintenance. I had that on my Lexus.

Maybe you could have surgery in your driveway?

I know, dealers are great. Hopefully next time you go they will give you that special oil change for $300…and tell you how lucky you are to have them.

Never said that but like many these days I don’t expect hugs and kisses and I realized they’re there to make money. Oh and by the way my dealer changes my oil once a year with 6 quarts of fully synthetic for $89. I would do it myself but it would only save me about 15 bucks and from what I hear it’s better warranty wise if they do it. Unless you’re really good at keeping your records straight. I don’t like going to the hospital either but you know what if I need surgery I go there. But you’re right paying an extra $30,000 for a three-box sedan so that I can avoid oil changes probably make sense

If Tesla’s require almost no maintenance and run for 500,000 miles then why is the recommended annual service for a Model S $600? With no oil to change, no filters, new spark plugs Etc this seems like gouging your customers. In the three and a half years I’ve owned my car I probably given the dealer $300 for maintenance.

If they make good on their promise of selling a capable EV for ~$25,000 a year from now, I actually think they might have a shot at 50% — if they ramped production accordingly. (Production plans announced thus far do not sound like it, though…)

The hatchback looks basically like a nextgen VW Golf and for good reason…the Golf is the best selling car worldwide and in history…well maybe it’s num 2 and num 1 is the Toyota Corolla…but the point is that if they make anything close to that mark, they will sell them by the hundreds of thousands. Same with that van/bus thing. As a rule, most people don’t even know there are such as thing as electric cars. My Kia Niro PHEV seems to confuse everyone I mention it to. But if someone is aware of EVs then it’s Tesla they’ve heard of and is the ONLY one that people who are non-EV people discuss. What I see happening is this same phenomenon with the VW bus/van. People who wouldn’t know who is president of the US seem to know the VW EV Bus is coming. Hmmm WV EV, EV VW, EVVW?

And the crossover version? Looks fugly to me which is extremely unusual. That VW is really ugly….said no one ever. But that odd looking crossover brings that phrase to mind.

“That VW is really ugly….said no one ever.”

Are you serious? The classic VW Beetle was often called “So ugly it’s cute”.

He is simply wrong and foolish to think he is after the other 50%. The market every car maker should be building EVs for is the people currently driving ICE. All of them need to be converted, ASAP. That is your market.

The problem is that VW want to sell ICE cars to the people currently driving ICE.

Their stated plans suggest otherwise…

I’m pretty sure he is talking about 50% of the future EV market, i.e. mostly new buyers, not 50% of the current market…

Maybe, but that isn’t what he said, and if they want people to buy EVs they need to talk like they are choice for everyone.

The ID line better be more efficient than Hyundai or Kia otherwise …. VW ain’t going to dominate that low cost market.

So I guess for guys who are EV fans it’s like download speeds? Of course people prefer more efficiency but when I bought my car there were other cars that were more efficient but there are other factors. Like do I actually like the design, the fit and finish and the car in general.

Of course, style plays first, on the eyes. I like my Kia Soul, but my own Sister thinks they are ‘Ugly!’ so, sure, there is that!

There are plenty of other factors. Does everyone always buy the most fuel efficient car available?

Efficiency directly affects cost vs. range, and is thus pretty crucial for offering competitive EVs at the lower end of the market.

Of course it affects it I just think there are other factors if the numbers are close. The battery is the most expensive part so if 2 cars have the same size battery but one has a more efficient motor it’ll have more range . Most people don’t drive that far each day though and I bought a VW Golf for $24.5k. I could have bought a different car that got better mileage and therefore more range for $5k less. But I didn’t like them….

Kia and Hyundai have great performance in range and cars. Yes Tesla is still a bit better. But for most rides they are more than capable enough. And so will these VW cars be. Even 300km of real range is a good option if the price is a bit less. 500km is indeed better and almost the range my first ICE car had which was around 600km.

That tracks what we know about the car market! Everyone buys the most efficient car, nothing else matters.

🙄

Yes yes. The world domination of the Mitsubishi Mirage must be brought to an end.

I hope and pray Tesla will put VW out of business

That’s pretty funny

The psychopaths who run VW are not funny at all

Yes they are all psychopaths ….grow up. Elon shares Trumps narcissistic personality disorder but who cares?

LMAO

“Elon shares Trumps narcissistic personality disorder…”

…in the same way that Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and Rembrandt were as bad as Hitler because they were all artists? 🙄

The Orange One has narcissistic personality disorder so highly developed that he can’t feel any empathy for others, and is incapable of forming true friendships. He is even incapable of understanding the value of real friendship between people or between nations. Does Elon Musk strike you as having those disorders?

I don’t know I wouldn’t have put him in his the category of Hitler or Trump but then again I don’t consider Hitler to be an artist. I do think he definitely has a healthy ego but that’s probably required to get things done. Maybe a savior complex. I don’t know I have a kid and even if I found someone else out there really tempting I want to dump my family for a new tail…

Why ? The more Ev’s the better for us all. More different models, different design, tech etc.

You would then be against Elon’s wishes! He wants ALL Automakers to get with making desirable EV’s! He just isn’t waiting for them to get it done!

I admire what Elon Musk is doing but I don’t agree with him on everything. A technology disruption is occurring because of Tesla and some companies will not survive the disruption. VW is one company who very much deserves to fail.

But they wont, as to me they seem to be doing the smart thing and going very heavily into making a profitable new energy vehicles.

I guess “pea brain” thinks learning from your mistakes makes you a failure…

Based on Elon’s management style/skills, the opposite is more likely.

Lol….what!? How many companies this guy took from 0 to $1B? Remind me, please…

So, just 50% Tesla? OK. Let’s see what Model Y does, in USA!

My suspicions: Tesla’s % will increase, leaving VW to carve out EV sales from the other players! So, maybe 25%? Tops? If they are quick enough!

Don’t forget: just having Elon ‘Talk About’ an Electric Pickup, has got Ford to announce a coming BEV F150! And GM may follow with an EV Silverado! Dodge RAM EV – Where are You?

I suspect, like the Roadster Reveal,in the Tesla Semi Event, we have a Possible Tesla Pickup Sneak in, at the Model Y Unveiling, too! (Remember, Elon talking about releasing More than 1 New EV at a Time, will indicate they are becoming “Big Boys” in auto manufacturing!)

With Elon optimism, 25% sounds about right. I see 15% more likely though.

You way overestimate how many people want a Tesla

Perhaps you’re underestimating that.

Perhaps but being out in the real world and away from these forums most of the time the vast majority of people don’t even know anything about Tesla. I’ve had numerous people ask me “who owns Tesla is it GM, Ford, Toyota etc”. For good or ill people tend to be fans of certain car brands, at least people who are into cars, so when those companies come out with a decent electric car even if it doesn’t have quite the efficiency of a Tesla they will buy what they know is assuming they even want an electric car. That doesn’t even bring into account all the people who are actually into EVs but have been turned off by Tesla fans.

Oi, Volkwagen! You’ve painted the camouflage pattern on the wrong thing — it’s supposed to go on the concept car, not on the bridge.

I’ve been wondering for a while where they took that photo. The Plattenbau in the background suggests east Germany; and there is a train station too, but a pretty nondescript one…

(Though as far as I can tell the concept car is just photoshopped in anyway…)

Blah blah blah blah blah

#Dieselgate

Blah blah blah blah

Just make the damn EVs and stop gassing.
Pun intended.

The article covered more than the EV market but one thing came through, “Tutonic arrogance.” But that may be necessary for them to rebuild their brand. So I’ll hop in my VW MicroBus … what it hasn’t arrived yet?

Well, the VW Bueli, with the 110 kWh Battery, sure hasn’t arrived yet, since showing it in Detroit, at NAIAS. 2015 or 2016? Can’t remember! It seems so long ago!

It was actually in 2011, Geneva Auto. The original reveal at least. It had an 85 kWh pack.

If the I.D looks anything like the concept it should do very well as a high volume EV in developed markets. Especially if they can pull off 200+ miles at $29k. China is looking for ‘affordable’ EVs at the 200 mile range and under $30k, and new comers have to meet that range and price point to become a leader.

how about a recall of all their ICE cars , put an electric engine on the diffrential and batteries where ever.
They are responsible for the pollution of every vehicle they have sold
(the polar ice is melting allready and when the polar ice cap is gone the earth thermostat has nothing left – by means the end of the world)

The sky is falling!!

Gosh yes, there is no way that the human species can possibly survive in a world with average temperatures perhaps 5 degrees hotter than it was several years ago. Why, next you’ll be trying to tell us that humans inhabit the Australian Outback or the Gobi Desert!

Oh, wait…

Interesting that they’re only aiming for 50% of the EV market… is that an admission that they can’t make a vehicle that’s better than a Tesla, and that they’re only aiming to be #2 in this race?

Just imagine the criticism of VW if they had said that they want 100% of the EV market and that they would put everyone else out of business.
I think 50% is rather high but far more achievable than 100% don’t you think?

It really doesn’t matter what he says the same people will attack them anyway. If he says they’re going to crush Tesla then the laugh at him for that if they don’t mention Tesla they yell at him for that.

Too many stupid comments out of VW.

The statement should be “Tesla has ~ 1% of the passenger vechicle market, who is going to win the other 99%?”

50% for Tesla and 50% for VW is fine and dandy, but then VW will have to contend with the Chinese knock offs, just like how Nokia and Microsoft fought and lost to the Koreans.

Won’t Tesla also have to contend with Chinese knockoffs.

For some odd reason, Tesla isn’t worried about those. 🙄

https://insideevs.com/youxia-x-chinas-tesla-model-s-knockoff/

I think I need a facepalm to facepalm my facepalm!

We’re contrite about our (ahem) $20 billion diesel -gate. However we STILL intend to take over the other 50% of the world for EV vehicles. I have 2 principal issues with this. 1. it dismisses the whole of the ‘remaining’ world’s EV producers (past, present and, importantly future) as essentially irrelevant, and 2. it appears to condone ‘world domination by any and all means possible…
, future)

Does he understand percentages? If Tesla has 50% then VW would have to sell every other EV to do what he suggests. Not one Kona, Leaf, iPace or any other make could be sold. This guy is out of touch with reality.

True , I think he even fantasizes about living on Mars….

That is at least physically possible, altho quite difficult to achieve. But just two auto makers capturing 100% of the plug-in EV market? That’s literally impossible. There’s far too much competition in the international market.

If getting production of a car is “hell” then playing volleyball on Mars is a few years away…..

You put the white prototype above and the e-golf side by side and looks like an updated e-golf with better aerodynamics. Bound to have better internals but still an e-golf update prototype with a different name.

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. It is based on an entirely new BEV only platform. It amazes me how many EV fans are clueless about cars in general.

Careful, Chris. You know what they say about those who live in glass houses and throwing stones…

Tell me where I’m wrong regarding the subject at hand? It has absolutely zero shared parts with the e-golf. A totally misinformed poster saw a hatchback and said “oh it must be the same thing dressed up differently”

Lol, an Evannex article about VW.

Actually, it’s a Motor Trend article. Check out the credit at the end of this article.

Am I missing something? Apart from the fact that the quotes attributed to Keogh are utterly meaningless, the only reference to Tesla owning 50% of the EV market is this: “Who is going to win the other 50 percent? That breakthrough product has not arrived yet.”

Where does he say that VW is aiming for the rest?

maybe a few corrections.
Tesla owns 90% of the EV market. They are the only one that is not a COMPLIANCE makers, Owns their Nationwide and partial world wide Super Chargers, makes their own batteries and only makes Electric cars. No gas or diesel ,no hybrids. Tesla is the real deal. Maybe a company in China like BYD is also a real EV maker. But all others are COMPLIANCE.

VW is adding chargers under a penalty from their Diesel gate as penalty. It’s not a real true effort. I submitted to Electrify America to have at least 2 standard Level 2 J-1772 so all cars could charge, even those with no Fast Charge port or if the Fast Chargers were broke. They have not done it yet. They should also have some with Batteries to cover Peak use and Solar , Wind etc to help covert the power. Only Tesla has done that in a few places with more coming.

So they are not going to challenge Tesla at all. They just pray its market share will remain fixed at 50% and VW can take a decent chunk of the left overs. No one will accuse them of being ambitious.

VW are making the right noises. The new models coming from VW group will do a lot to help accelerate the transition.
It looks like China is going to control the BEV revolution. It is unfortunate that it will take a long time to prize the grip fossil fuel interests have over western politics. By the time we do, China will have taken control of the world’s economy.
I guess it is only right and fitting that we go down with the technology that gave us so much power and yet destroyed the planet.

One has to watch the Michael Dunne interview Autoline daily host John McElroy during a China Autoshow,I think it was in Beijing in 2015,and just before Dieselgate . This is why China will eventually dominate in BEVs, also watch his other 2 interviews,one in a San Diego University and another Autoline Daily interview in 2012-2013.

I always thought VW electrical systems were less then reliable.

Such a waste of syllables to say SFA.
The “suits” at VW just don’t get it do they?

it will be made but when you go to the dealer it wont be charged have 4 flats and be used as a dealer fishtank.
the sales people wont know anything about it. the commercials for it will be run only on feb 30th.
will require blinker fluid and highbeam halogen fluid.

Bogus. Tesla doesn’t have 50% of the market.

VW speaking about EVs is the most schysophrenic (is that even a word?) company I know. They wont do an EV because it is hard and EVs will be expensive and will have no range and noone actually wants an EV but on the other side they are already building a Tesla killer and will build (they are actually building) a cheap EV with astronomical range and they have a huge portfolio od EVs that are way better than any other EV and they gonna lead the market soon… And on the other hand they are asking the German officials for funding because to build EVs and to switch to EV cars will be hard. Did I miss something?

I guess he’s right, there are no Tesla rivals at the moment. Even VW’s own products (e-Tron, taycan etc.) won’t beat Tesla on range and charging infrastructure.

Yes when buying a sports sedan range is the only thought…that’s why everyone always bought the most efficient car

I don’t think that the Golf-like I.D., shown on the pic, is even intended for the US market, at least not in foreseeable future (vw.com does tell us, though, to look out for the beefierI.D. Crozz in 2020).