Volkswagen Plans 22 Million Electric Cars In 10 Years

vw Electric Cars

MAR 12 2019 BY DOMENICK YONEY 146

The automaker may redeem itself yet.

Volkswagen Group is serious about electric vehicles. It may not look that way if you judge by its battery-powered cars on the road today — in the U.S., it currently offers only the Volkswagen e-Golf. But, its various brands will be producing millions in just a few years from now. In fact, it’s just increased its planned output from 15 million to 22 million over the next ten years. That’s ambitious by any standard.

The boost in production expectations comes with a dramatic increase in the number of models that will be offered. Previously, it had planned on 50 different models. Now, that number is 70. They will, of course, be spread across the dozen brands it now owns, though we can expect them to be concentrated on the Volkswagen, Audi, Seat, and Škoda marques.

The models will, for the most part, be based on the MEB (Modular Electric Toolkit) platform. That’s what will underlie the production forms of the VW I.D., the I.D. Crozz, and I.D. Buzz, as well as the Audi A4 e-tron, Seat el-Born, and Škoda Vision iV we just saw revealed at the Geneva Motor Show.

Importantly, the company also says it is implementing a comprehensive decarbonization plan and is targeting 2050 as the date to be completely CO2-neutral. That would put it in line with the goals set out in the Paris Climate Accord.

Besides its own vehicles, the Group has also stated it will offer its MEB platform to other automakers, which could create an even greater result than outlined by this announcement. So far, it has had one outfit, e.GO Mobile AG, say it will take it up on that offer, but we would not be surprised to see the previously-announced partnership with Ford eventually lead to Blue Oval MEB vehicles.

While there remains some amount of skepticism out there — the dieselgate scandal is still fresh in the minds of many — we believe Volkswagen Group is now laying the redemptive groundwork necessary to be the world leader in electric automobiles in the very near future. While it does concede that Tesla owns half the market, it has its sights set on the rest.

Check out the official press release below for more details.

Volkswagen plans 22 million electric vehicles in ten years

  • Almost 70 new electric models by 2028 – instead of the 50 previously planned
  • Comprehensive decarbonization program for the Volkswagen Group signed off
  • Volkswagen Group targeting fully CO2-neutral balance by 2050
  • Diess: “Volkswagen will change radically. We are taking on responsibility with regard to the key trends of the future – particularly in connection with climate protection.”

The Volkswagen Group is forging ahead with the fundamental change of system in individual mobility and systematically aligning with electric drives. The Group is planning to launch almost 70 new electric models in the next ten years – instead of the 50 previously planned. As a result, the projected number of vehicles to be built on the Group’s electric platforms in the next decade will increase from 15 million to 22 million. Expanding e-mobility is an important building block on the road to a CO2-neutral balance. Volkswagen has signed off a comprehensive decarbonization program aimed at achieving a fully CO2-neutral balance in all areas from fleet to production to administration by 2050. Volkswagen is thus fully committed to the Paris climate targets.

Dr. Herbert Diess, CEO of Volkswagen AG, said: “Volkswagen is taking on responsibility with regard to the key trends of the future – particularly in connection with climate protection. The targets of the Paris Agreement are our yardstick. We will be systematically aligning production and other stages in the value chain to CO2 neutrality in the coming years. That is how we will be making our contribution towards limiting global warming. Volkswagen is seeking to provide individual mobility for millions of people for years to come – individual mobility that is safer, cleaner and fully connected. In order to shoulder the investments needed for the electric offensive we must make further improvements in efficiency and performance in all areas.”

The Volkswagen Group has set milestones in all areas to be achieved in the coming years on the road to complete decarbonization by 2050. The measures follow three principles: first, effective and sustainable CO2 reduction. Second, switch to renewable energy sources for power supply. Third, compensate for remaining emissions that cannot be avoided. In order to improve the CO2 balance of vehicles throughout their lifecycle, for example, Volkswagen has already made a start on the supply chain. A detailed roadmap is currently being drawn up. There is particularly significant potential as regards steel and aluminum supplies.

The 2025 target is to reduce the CO2 footprint of the vehicle fleet by 30 percent across the lifecycle compared to 2015. Volkswagen is therefore electrifying the vehicle portfolio, with investment in this area alone amounting to more than €30 billion by 2023. The share of electric vehicles in the Group fleet is to rise to at least 40 percent by 2030. The first of the new-generation electric vehicles go into production this year: the AUDI e-tron1* will be followed by the Porsche Taycan2*. Reservations for each of these models already total 20,000 units. And electric vehicles will be brought into the mainstream with the ramp up of the Volkswagen ID. Other models in this first wave will be the ID. CROZZ, the SEAT el-born, the ŠKODA Vision E, the ID. BUZZ , and the ID. VIZZION.

In order to support the electric offensive, LG Chem, SKI, CATL and Samsung were selected as strategic battery cell suppliers. In view of the constantly increasing demand, Volkswagen is also taking a close look at possible participation in battery cell manufacturing facilities in Europe. Looking further ahead, solid-state batteries also have great potential. The goal is to enable an industrial level of production with this technology together with our partner QuantumScape.

At the same time, CO2 emissions at all plants are to be cut 50 percent by 2025 compared with 2010. The conversion of the power station in Wolfsburg from coal to gas will reduce CO2 emissions by 1.5 million tonnes annually from 2023 onwards. Audi’s production activities at the Brussels site, for example, are already completely CO2-neutral. The Zwickau plant will not only be the lead factory for the Modular Electric Drive Toolkit (MEB); the ID. built there will be delivered to customers with a CO2-neutral balance.

The MEB lies at the heart of Volkswagen’s electric offensive. The cost of e-mobility can be significantly lowered through partnerships to enable the widest possible spread of the MEB and the associated economies of scale. That makes individual mobility affordable and usable for the mainstream in the future as well. One example of such a partnership is the planned cooperation with Aachen-based e.GO Mobile AG recently announced at the Geneva International Motor Show.

To boost e-mobility further, we will be installing 400 fast-charging stations along Europe’s major roads and highways by 2020 in collaboration with industry partners in IONITY. 100 of these will be located in Germany. That means there will be a station every 120 kilometers. Elli (Electric Life), Volkswagen’s new subsidiary, will also offer wallboxes for charging at home, using green power – initially in Germany. In addition, there will be 3,500 charging points on employee car parks at all plants with further charging opportunities at dealerships.

 

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146 Comments on "Volkswagen Plans 22 Million Electric Cars In 10 Years"

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ICE manufacturer (pick any) plans on having 50 Billion electric cars on the road by 2050!!! (YAWN)

Rich guy with zero experience in the car biz decides he’s going to start an EV-only company and build his own charging network and not sell through traditional dealerships! (YAWN)

I’m not entirely sure what the rules are in this game, but I think I’m winning.

so, when will we see 2 VW BEV models on the roads in the US?

Regulations in China will make them do about 10-12 million there until 2030 and regulations in Europe will make them do about 10-12 million there until 2030.

Leaving…well…none to the US. Except a few in California. Land of the free (for companies to pollute) will not be a large part of their EV equation.

Maybe not too soon.
If Trump gets his way, the focus will definitely be elsewhere.
Even that aside, China and Europe will get their focus initially.

What’s funny is that US cars will get get ban in other countries due to pollutants

Increasing pollution has become a core Republican value. (They call it reducing regulation, but the practical effect is to increase pollution.)

And kill millions of people every year. https://electrek.co/2019/03/12/air-pollution-smoking-deaths/

better get comfy…i suspect they will stop the eGolf before the Crozz gets here so it will be a long wait until you have options at you VW dealer.

you dont have to worry about me buying a german car unless its an i3

2020 is less than a year away.

Kenneth Bokor (EV Revolution Show)

I would say within 2-4 years.

I’d say 1.5-2 years

Going by their announcements so far, should happen in 2022. (With the introduction of the BUZZ and eAero, adding to the crossover planned for 2021 or maybe 2020.)

I know some americans. They are not that stupid, to buy the crap from these cheater and to support them

e-Golf, e-Up!, e-Crafter are 3 with the VW Badge.

The US is a minor part of VW’s business (around 10%) so presumably way after the two far more important regions – Europe and China.

There is already 1. The eGolf. The VW ID cross should start production in 2020.

I do see a huge gap between aspirations and reality. VW promises to invest billions in E-mobilty and build millions of BEVs, but all they achieved is the e-Golf and e-Up in extremly low numbers and extremly reduced optional equipment compared to what they offer with there ICE cars e.g. no sun roof, no tow hitch, no bad terrain chassis and many more. VW has big mouth. Reality tells different.

while I agree that VW is underdelivering.

They do have the VW eCrafter, VW eUP!, VW eGolf, Audi etron currently in production.

And they have announced for the coming 12 months: Audi etron sportback, VW eUP! gen2, Skoda Citygo, SEAT Mii, Porsche Taycan and VW ID.3 .

VW Group is in the process of a major ramp-up of EVs on a global scale with the goal of being the #1 EV producer in the world. Spreading a common platform across 4 high volume brands offers scale to do that.

Kenneth Bokor (EV Revolution Show)

Yes and probably a few more of their Brands too. Spinning up 16 Plants Globally to handle this.

List their cell suppliers, how many battery factories they already have built and how many GWh of packs they can already produce.

VW doesnt make batteries. They can make 100 million EV shells with no batteries but what good will that do them?

VW makes batteries, but they do not make battery cells. They buy that from the 3-4 battery cell factories located in Europe – due to their huge pre orders placed at the right time. Batteries are basically a commodity, and if they order soon enough, battery cell manufacturers will build capacity to fulfill the order. It’s not a product that is build, and stored before it’s sold. They build the number that is ordered. If it would be smarter to do a joint venture with a single battery manufacturer or choose what VW have done remain to be seen. There are pros and cons. With a close relationship between the battery cell manufacturer and the car company, things should work just fine. No matter what, it is cricial with good logistics. Take the Toyota factory in the UK for example.. They use 2,2 million parts every day. They need a long term contract system with their supply chain, and it works for the most part very well. You can Google their cell suppliers, and you can see they have set up shop close to the car factories. Very common practice. Just see in their US factory, and see all the… Read more »

And the world’s greatest EV company has only 3 models in production after a decade of development.
Let’s not be too critical of the one who may become the next great one.

not sure thats a fair comparison. How many VW BEVs are on the road compared to the car company you are referring to.?

Kenneth Bokor (EV Revolution Show)

Well, not as many BEVs that is for sure. I can’t find numbers on just e-Golfs, but at least 60,000 – 80,000 of those sold globally since inception, plus the e-Plus lineup in Europe would add lots more.

However, in total VW sold 6.9 Million consumer vehicles in 2018. So how does that other BEV company compare to this scale?

very well, if we’re talking ‘destruction’.

Much, much better if you are only counting cars with actual battery packs in them which is what makes an EV. VW has made just under 6.9 million cars without batteries so how does that help them make cars with batteries?

Plus the existing MAN e-TGE and soon Q2 L e-tron. Plus the SEAT el-born and Audi Q4 e-tron, maybe Porsche Macan and others, by end 2020

Of all the VW EV models you cite, Anonymous, I think only the eGolf is being made in more than compliance car numbers. And while the eGolf may be selling reasonably well in Europe, it’s selling here in the U.S. in only compliance car numbers.

Compared to VW’s repeated mountain-hight claims for putting millions of EVs into production, their actual EV production amounts to merely a molehill.

VW only started their EV plans some 8 months ago. Prior to that their plan was to stick with hybrid evolution of combustion engines to cope with European 2020 regulation goals. In 8 months they took down their old plan and made a new one on EVs. It is a major success. Yet they have to show they can deliver. And every month counts for the final marketshare.

Don’t forget the joint ventures in China, the VW Lavida, Audi e-Tron, VW e-Crafter and the soon coming Porsche Taycan, Seat el-Born, VW ID 3 etc.

Kenneth Bokor (EV Revolution Show)

But why then actually spend all this money and sign contracts if they will not do it? From a business perspective, this would make no sense.

You are talking in a bias manner and have to look at the economics for them. If anyone can do this, it’s VW Group with its already massive economies of scale. In another couple of years, we should start to see the fruits of this labor hit the streets and over the next couple of years after that, start to scale linear.

Hey, Tesla took 4+ years to get the Model S going and only with the Model 3 last year, have they started to significantly crank out numbers.

VW will spool up 16 Plants Globally in the next few years to handle the load. Again, they are spending money on design, engineering, re-tooling, supply chain, workforce, etc. why, just to make a headline? Nope, they are serious.

Scaling linear would be a very bad idea in an exponentially growing market…

I love this sound bites “exponentially growth”

Have you looked at global EV sales from 2012 onwards? It’s literally growing exponentially.

But how do we know they are serious about doing all that? VW making more EV promises is like Lucy promising Charlie Brown that she won’t pull the football away when he tries to kick it this time. We don’t believe Lucy anymore; why should we believe VW?

Maybe they are serious this time. *Shrug* If so, then they can brag about it when they are actually doing it. Until then, I will presume it’s just more vaporware.

I think VW is “doing it” but their projections are likely inflated to discourage the would-be competition from investing in EVs.

Inflating projections would do the opposite of discouraging others…

If you read information about companies who work with factory automation, you will see they are having their best years almost ever. Not just for EV retooling, but for industry 4.0 factories. They have their order books full for years.
Look at parts suppliers that is the major parts suppliers for normal ICE cars – and see their huge investments in EV tech. You can not survive over the next 10-15 years by being the best manufacturer of dual mass flywheels. .
Then look at their investments, who they have signed contracts with – and you will see the scale of things.
Looks positive for more EVs for sure.

We know they are serious this time, because this time they are throwing around *not only* numbers…

A vast conspiracy lead by the Illuminati. The $25 Billion battery contract, construction and design of numerous models, etc etc is all just a false flag. Their lizard people board members sure are clever though. It takes skill to pull that size of a ruse off with a publicly traded company. I mean look at Elon…one tweet and BAM! SEC fires him as chairman and fines him millions of dollars. That’s one area VW has a leg up on him. They are soooooo much better and head faking and getting away with it. And why not? I heard the chairman of the SEC was seen leaving the annual Bilderberger meeting. Extremely well orchestrated.

😂 brilliant bit of satire.

The fact that they did little in the past does *not* prove that they won’t do better going forward.

By the same argument, the fact that Lucy pulled the football away from Charlie Brown’s kick so many times doesn’t prove that she will the next time. But that’s the way to bet.

Interesting argument you just made supporting the Tesla shorters.

Any sane investor looks at the *specifics* of the situation, rather than dealing in such blind generalisations.

“Past performance is no guarantee of future results.”

Standard investment advice since forever.

Put up or shut up.

Preorders for the ID3 start in May. Etron, Taycan, etc, etc all slated for production. These are not just wild concept cars anymore.

VW produced 10.8 million cars in total worldwide last year. They would have to start producing EVs at over 20% of their entire worldwide fleet starting this year to reach 22 million in 10 years. That’s 2.2 million EVs a year. Tesla already has one huge dedicated battery factory already built and running full tilt and by the end of 2019 will still be producing at capacity of only around .6 million vehicles. With their factory in China finished and at full capacity sometime next year they might be up to 1 million+ total. Even if VW wants to there won’t be enough 3rd party battery production for any one car company to acquire over 2 million large EV packs a year. VW alone would need the equivalent of like 4 gigafactories worth of batteries just for their 2.2 million a year production from 3rd party companies like LG Chem, Samsung, Panasonic and CATL all while competing against all the other car makers who also want to ramp up EV production. And even then they won’t meet their 22 million goal since these factories don’t even exist yet. So in reality they will need more like 6-8 gigafactories worth of… Read more »

Coming soon from VW is “Mr Fusion” development announcement just like from the movie Back to the Future and they won’t need batteries anymore or even roads for that matter..

Kenneth Bokor (EV Revolution Show)

That would be awesome, compost/recycle to get fuel!

I cant believe I didn’t get any thumbs up/down on my funny comment.. 8( Anyways I remember finding an article from 2013 on how Audi E-tron will blow away the Model S when it comes out in 2015 and now thats its almost out in 2019 it has been found lacking in every way but the leather stitching…

I gave you a thumbs up earlier!

Well I gave you a thumbs up since I agree with your original well articulated comment.

Vapor
Ware

Kenneth Bokor (EV Revolution Show)

Nope you are so wrong.

Kenneth Bokor (EV Revolution Show)

Yes, impressive numbers. But you forgot to add that at least a year ago they already signed contracts from these multiple battery cell manufacturers (worth Billions of dollars) and those guys have to deliver to them. They were smart by buying into the battery cell supply chain in order to start their inventory build up.

As far as reallocating 20% to EVs, that is easy for them. Why is that hard? They have 16 Plants Globally that will spool up, with some already in the works, to handle EV manufacturing.

So yes, it is big talk from VW I agree because if anyone can do it, they can and they’ve already been working on their strategy for some time. We only find stuff out after the fact.

Where are these secret battery factories that are producing 200 GWh of packs needed to make 2-3 million EVs a year?

Signing contracts to secure future volume doesn’t mean that these battery manufacturers can wave a magic wand and create factories out of thin air. These are contracts not actual physical battery packs.

Sure VW can spool up their factories and build millions of EVs without battery packs but I dont think they will sell well

They didn’t say they will be selling 2 – 3 million EVs per year starting two years from now… Battery factories take less then two years to build. There is absolutely no reason to build the factories now for production volumes planned in the middle of the next decade.

(And BTW, LG — just one of VW’s several suppliers — is building factories for >60 GWh/year capacity available less than two years from now…)

This Kenneth Bokor guy understands more of car industry than all the others in this forum together! I mean, really, some arguments are shouted like a child’s saying ‘my father is stronger than yours’

Panasonic isn’t among the suppliers they lined up… SK Innovation is, though. And they are actually evaluating building dedicated Gigafactories with them, much like Tesla does with Panasonic.

But even if they don’t, that’s not a major issue. Suppliers build as many factories as they need to fill orders. Global capacity is set to roughly triple in the next two years; and more gigafactories are being announced almost monthly. Timelines are typically around two years from announcement — sometimes less. There is really no major obstacle getting to 2.2 million vehicles per year in 2025 or so, if they are willing.

(Also, Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 is *not* at full tilt yet — not even close. That one alone is expected to supply enough batteries for more than a million cars per year ultimately…)

Yes but these factories aren’t online yet and they aren’t all dedicated for only VWs ambitious plan. And yes any new factories will take at least 3 years to be built to full production and so a handful of gigafactories will be built 3 years into this 10 year deadline.

Maybe in 8 to 10 years from now VW will have the packs to fill 3-4 million a year but I wouldn’t bet on them being anywhere near 22 million total produced to date.

Correct me if I’m wrong but I remember reading an article recently that LG chem was threatening to stop current supply of batteries for their EV lineup if they went thru with their factory plans that wont be ready for years causing them to rethink their decision.. (Sorry too late in the day and lazy to find the article)

Yeah, there is that rumour… Not sure how seriously to take it, though. While LG cutting supply would set back the e-tron (I’m wondering whether the delays we are seeing might actually be a result of that…), I don’t see it causing much harm in the long run. Switching a particular model to a new cell supplier can’t happen overnight — but in the grand scheme of things, VW is not dependant on LG. The MEB is engineered to work both with LG pouch cells and Samsung prismatic can cells; and what’s more, SK Innovation has very similar pouch cells that can probably serve pretty much as a drop-in replacement after some validation and minor tweaks…

Again, various gigafactories announced/under construction right now are supposed to reach full capacity in less then two years. Building battery factories is not a big deal when there is ensured demand.

Also, ramping to some four million vehicles per year eight years from now is indeed totally sufficient to reach 22 million cumulative production in ten years…

If battery tech continues to improve, energy density will be much better in 8-10 years, and fewer cells will be needed in each car.

The early part of an exponential curve are very tough to predict. See also, Model 3 build rate…

It’s not going to 2 million next year. Or even the year after.

If they start off making 50,000/yr the first year, and double production each year, within 7 years they will be making more than 3million/yr. And a total production of about 6million cars. Then increase production by 1million/yr and easily would make the 20million within 10yrs.

7 years is a lot of time to ramp up battery production.

It is hilarious that each year VW plans get bigger but they don’t produce anymore BEVs. At this rate by 2030 VW will be planning to produce seven trillions BEVS over the next 10 years (while actually producing none).

They’ve been sticking to their plan. And quoting anonymous above:
They do have the VW eCrafter, VW eUP!, VW eGolf, Audi etron currently in production.

And they have announced for the coming 12 months: Audi etron sportback, VW eUP! gen2, Skoda Citygo, SEAT Mii, Porsche Taycan and VW ID.3 .

Compliance cars

Kenneth Bokor (EV Revolution Show)

To date, yes. But future, nope. Not just for compliance anymore.

Well, not “just” for compliance, since the intend to sell them at a profit, unlike “traditional” compliance cars — but VW did say at various times that regulations are the primary motivation…

Batteries, batteries, batteries! ICE cars dont have batteries and VW cant make them.

The discussion of VW making millions of EVs in just a couple if years isnt about VW but about the 3rd party battery suppliers. Worldwide battery production doesnt have a fraction of this capacity available yet and these factories have to be built.

Worldwide battery production right now actually has the capacity to build several million BEVs per year.

It doesn’t take long to expand existing factories or build new ones. It’s all about the benjamins. And VW has a lot of those.

Well, so far it looks like they might be sticking to their *new* plan. But to be fair, they also announced big plans in 2013 or thereabouts, which they totally did *not* stick to…

“They’ve been sticking to their plan.”

Which plan? The 2013 plan that “Volkswagen Group will be the world leader in electric and hybrid cars by 2018”?

The 2016 plan to roll out with 20 electric cars and plug-in hybrids by 2020?

Obviously neither of those has or will happened. So why do you think this time is different? Mind you, I’m not asserting that it won’t happen this time either; I’m just asking why any reasonable person would believe any of VW’s EV claims after so many lies.

Thos forum discussion has been driving me crazy. This discussion has nothing to do with VW but has to do with worldwide buildout of 3rd party battery factories to meet future demand.

VW can dream up whatever plan they want but they and other automakers are at the mercy of these 3rd party suppliers building out capacity. There is no way that VW and all these other automakers can all meet their ambitious short term plans without dozens of gigafactories being built in just half a decade.

Of course this capacity will be built over time but for VW to pull 22 million in 10 years out of a hat is ridiculous.

Dozens of gigafactories are being built *right now*.

Yes, the 2016 plan. I don’t see what makes you think it’s not happening. Across the VW group, they have eight new BEVs starting deliveries this year or next (e-tron, e-tron Sportback, Taycan, ID.3, ID CROZZ, Seat el-Born, Skoda Vision iV, Audi Q4 e-tron), plus two or three variants of the e-Up, plus a whole bunch of PHEVs being (re-)introduced this year. I’d be very surprised if they don’t get to 20 models by 2020.

2010:

https://www.treehugger.com/cars/volkswagen-plans-to-sell-300000-electric-cars-a-year-by-2018.html

Which plan? If they keep changing it they don’t make progress.

They’re not? How come they increased e-golf production with 45% from 2017 to 2018?
Remember they are ramping up e-tron too.

When I see agreements and video footage of 6-10 large scale battery factories being built, then I will believe. Until then, same ‘ol, same ‘ol.

You’re assuming they won’t just muscle their way to the front of the queue with existing suppliers.

I think it’s entirely reasonable to assume that won’t happen with every battery cell supplier, yes. Especially not Panasonic, considering its long-term partnership with Tesla.

Kenneth Bokor (EV Revolution Show)

They’ve already signed agreements worth Billions for the battery guys and started spooling up/retooling up to 16 Plants within the next few years to handle this. Last month, announced Chattanooga Plant to be EV as well as many others.

What more do you need. Same ‘ol, you are so wrong.

Do you work for VW? I can’t understand why you’re being such an aggressive apologist here. VW has a long history of empty promises about producing EVs. If their currently announced plans are any more than the lip service they’ve given us in the past, then it will become apparent over the next year or two.

Last I looked, VW still wasn’t selling any high-volume plug-in EV. Certainly nothing remotely close to the grandiose claims they’ve made over the past decade.

VW has lots of money for press releases and paid trolls. Building actual EV’s, not so much.

Do you work for Tesla? This is not a war between Tesla and VW. It’s electric vs ICE drive trains.

He didn’t mention Tesla…

I have seen Teslas, I have seen Leafs, I have seen Bolts and Volts, I have even seen the Solo … I have done even more, I have touched them, I have seated in them. What I have not seen in real life in-front of me is a BEV from VW. You are talking about a company that maybe bigger than all the others I have seen combined, yet I have not seen with my own eyes a single VW BEV in my entire life. Why, oh why would I believe their claims if they can’t produce hardware that I can see and touch. What good is being so big if they can’t make what they claim.

They have been making the e-Golf since 2013. These weren’t selling nearly as well as they originally hoped (turns out an ICE conversion is just not good enough), but they *did* make them. No reason to believe they won’t be making all those models announced for next year.

Ken, I respectfully disagree. I was an early watcher of the original M3 Owners club and I get where you are coming from that other companies can and will play in Tesla’s sandbox. I understand the contracts for future supply. Billions is the cost of one gigafactory. That will help, but we need 10 of these under construction as soon as possible. What I don’t see much of is actual battery factories being built. I also understand LG, CATL, and others do not get the pub that Tesla gets as far building battery factories. There are probably some plans and even some under construction now, but none on the scale of Giga or we would have heard about it. Here is what I think will happen. This ramp up to a total of 22 million won’t get started in earnest until 2023 at the earliest. They will have a few vehicles across their lineup that will be long range full BEVs catering to a high end market. The mass majority will be plug in hybrids with small packs selling at that $30k price tag they are talking about. Now, all this can change, if we see these contracts showing the… Read more »

The LG gigafactory in Poland is already there. (And undergoing capacity increases.) The Samsung and SK Innovation gigafactories in Hungary are under construction. CATL has several gigafactories already in operation and under construction in China; and the one in Germany will start production soon.

Err, I meant start construction soon for the German CATL gigafactory…

Somewhat good news, although only one of those has plans as ambitious as Giga. Any new plants are good, but where my skepticism lies is we need 10 Gigas producing 60-100 gwh/year under construction now to supply VAG, Tesla, Nissan, Honda, GM, Volvo, etc. for the next 10 years. I understand a plant can be built and operational in 2 years time, so if we don’t have 10 underway in two years from now, I highly doubt the targets VAG is supplying here are for full, long range 50kwh or more EV packs. Even plugin hybrids are useful, but the more 50kwh long range EVs as soon as possible, the better.

“Volkswagen Plans 22 Million Electric Cars In 10 Years”

How will the annual ramp up look like?

2020: 100,000
2021: 300,000
2022: 600,000
2023: 1 million
2024: 2 million
2025: 3 million
2026: 3 million
2027: 4 million
2028: 4 million
2029: 4 million

And how many EV’s will Tesla deliver during the next decade?
Perhaps 30 million?

Kenneth Bokor (EV Revolution Show)

I really hope Tesla can do 30 Million in 10 years, really I do. But you are smoking something if you think that.

It is not 100% out of the question. Not likely — but not impossible. I see Tesla hitting around 2 million / year within 5 years for sure. (similar in size to BMW)

Why not? You think Tesla will flip to growing much slower than the rest of industry going forward? Unless they do poorly with future product design, or fall seriously behind on autonomy, I don’t see that happening.

30 million in 10 years averages 3 million per year. That’s almost an order of magnitude more than Tesla’s current production, so to average that over the next decade would be quite an achievement. But, I think, not impossible.

@ PP

The combined total number of global Tesla EV deliveries in 2019 and 2020 will be about 1 million.

The first year ever that Tesla will deliver more than 1 million EV’s in one single year, will be in 2021.

2030: more than 5 million?

Nothing is impossible.

They need to persuade people to buy those 5 million cars and as a premium manufacturer their market is much smaller than someone like VAG, who have VW, Seat and Skoda in the “budget”/Mid tier of vehicles.

@ Kenneth

I don’t smoke anything at all. I never did, and I never will be.

Damn, I can’t compete — I smoked a cigarette once! 😉

My estimate.

2020: 100,000
2021: 200,000
2022: 400,000
2023: 1 million
2024: 1 million
2025: 2 million
2026: 2 million
2027: 4 million
2028: 5 million
2029: 6 million

They are counting the ten years as 2019 – 2028.

Kenneth Bokor (EV Revolution Show)

Good to see VW up the ante. With the MEB platform now making appearances in the VW Group brands, not just in VW proper, I have no doubt that they have the capacity and economies of scale to achieve these kind of numbers, within these timeframes. With this scale includes ramping up 16 Plants globally to handle this volume representing most of VW Group brands.

We’ve already started to see the MEB make its way into Audi and VW as well as SEAT (El-Born) and Skoda (Vision). Expect to see more come out from those brands and others.

Even thought VW has diversified its battery supply chain, I’m still worried that could be the weakest link. As more and more car manufacturers spool up Electrification efforts, the demand on all the current EV Battery Cell manufacturers will be very high.

I’ve seen that electric MicroBus before … https://autoweek.com/article/detroit-auto-show/vw-id-buzz-concept-previews-electric-microbus-styled-mpv … published January 9, 2017.

I look forward to driving a Tesla to the local VW dealer to look it over.

I hope they will follow through with their plans. Based on current developments, they are still ahead of the American and Japanese dinosaurs (Ford, GM, Toyota,…) that are heading toward extinction.

I will believe it when I see it…..

Enough talkie, more build-ee

So the 15 million figure they mentioned last time was till 2028? I was assuming that it was till 2026, like the 10 million figure they mentioned before… So it turns out the 15 million figure was not actually an increase in ambitions — only now we see one…

Dear Volkswagen:

Increasing your EV vaporware claims no longer impresses us. Some of us have not forgotten your 2013 claim that “Volkswagen Group will be the world leader in electric and hybrid cars by 2018” (citation below). Not so much, it turns out! We haven’t forgotten your more recent EV vaporware claims, either.

Try actually making and selling a high-volume model or three of BEVs and/or PHEVs.

Actions speak louder than words.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1086902_volkswagen-will-be-the-biggest-electric-car-maker-in-2018-it-says

Don’t forget in 2010:

https://www.treehugger.com/cars/volkswagen-plans-to-sell-300000-electric-cars-a-year-by-2018.html

It is not just making promises, but the constant changing of their goals means they never get the work done.

Make a plan, and stick to it VW.

You mean like Tesla?… 😉

I especially love when that article is brought up, because if you actually go through it they hit almost every one of the goals they put.

The main one they missed was the 300,000 target, but then again most manufacturers (including Tesla) have overestimated the number of EV’s they will have sold.

“Try actually making and selling a high-volume model or three” — that’s *exactly* what they are doing right now.

In 2013 no one thought Tesla would be as big as it is today. Still Nissian and Renault sell more EVs aswell I think…
You need to differentiate between short-term announcements like the next EV model coming to market (wich should have a realistic time estimate) and mid- to longterm announcements which will change inevitable as plans get refined.
They aren’t that far off. More and more Models are being spied testing, not just announced. The e-Golf showed VW that demand isn’t there at that price point for too little range even if it is a decent car. They needed to make a versatile platform for more than 2 or 3 models to be able to manufacture at an competitive pricepoint without relying on an Musk Effekt. That took time.

Remember guys – having lofty ambitions will come back and bite you in the Ass. People will drag up aims and claim you broke your promise…

“mehr Dampf”

That means 183,333 cars a month?

They pushed everything to 10 years now. Bluff machine.

The constant stream of vaporware press releases from VW serves the purpose of deterring government entities from mandating VW build EV’s. “Look at us, we’re a building them EV’s boss. No need to pass any regulations which ban diesel and force us to mass produce EV’s.”

Uh, no, that achieves the opposite: it proves that the regulations are realistic, so no need to back down on them.

The actual purpose is threefold: one part is to make EVs present in the minds of people, so they will have solid demand by the time they come to market. Another part is reassuring shareholders that VW is at the forefront of the transition. Last but not least, they want to keep potential buyers from going to Tesla now, by promising to offer competitive products Real Soon Now…

I’ll be one of them if you offer a 200-300 mile AWD SUV for less than $40K.

The ID. CROZZ should fall in that category I think… Unless they charge a hefty premium for AWD.

Well, depending on how you define “SUV” I guess.

VW EV cars on the road TALKS… bullshit no cars on the road…WALKS!!

Tesla is like Amazon. They are just starting out but in about 10 years, Tesla will be a lot bigger than now and have much bigger market share. Tesla is the next Toyota.

Starting when?

2019.

This is the interesting part:

“The 2025 target is to reduce the CO2 footprint of the vehicle fleet by 30 percent across the lifecycle compared to 2015. Volkswagen is therefore electrifying the vehicle portfolio, with investment in this area alone amounting to more than €30 billion by 2023. The share of electric vehicles in the Group fleet is to rise to at least 40 percent by 2030.”

So even in more than 10 years VW will be producing quite more ICE cars than EV. So what ever they said investments will continue to be huge if petrol cars. And of course this is only words, from a group who is used to lie.

On 8th May 2019 VW will start taking orders for the Launch Edition of the VW ID Neo.

The car will be revealed at the Frankfurt Motor Show in September 2019.

22M in 10 Years means 2.2M per year. Tesla is already at 500k a year if Elon is not mistaken. That means that Tesla is delivering in 2019 25% of all cars that VW wanna sell by 2030. And that is with only one plant opened.

What a coincidence. I also plan to have 22 million EVs on the road in the next 10 years.

Means about the same.

Do it! All we do is win!

I have a startup company making 20 million BEV a year by 2050. Most likely I will beat VW.

Tesla plans about 350.000 EVs this years… real sold cars this year.
VW horoscope previews 22 million EVs in 10 years, 220 million EVS in 100 years, 2.2 billion EVs in 1000 years
WOW

Where will all these cars be charged?

Mostly at home and at public 3 phase AC charge points. They are everywhere in EU.