U.S. Tesla Sales In October 2018 Up By 861%

NOV 4 2018 BY MARK KANE 35

In October 2017, Tesla sold just 2,115 cars. This past October, over 20,000.

It’s not the last month of a quarter, so no one should expect sales of 30,000 electric cars like in September, but even in October Tesla is able to achieve a groundbreaking result of growth of 861% year-over-year.

Our estimates stand at over 20,000 Teslas delivered for the month, and each model noted growth.

  • Model 3 – 17,750
  • Model S – 1,350
  • Model X – 1,225
  • Total: 20,325 (up 861%)

Rolling 12-month sales continue to climb up and approaches 150,000.

In the first 10 months of 2018, Tesla delivered over 134,000 BEVs:

  • Model 3 – 95,882
  • Model S – 19,745
  • Model X – 18,800
  • Total: 134,427 (up 261%)

Cumulative sales of all three models is now approaching 300,000:

  • Model S – 137,892
  • Model 3 – 97,654
  • Model X – 58,552
  • Total: 294,098

Categories: Sales, Tesla

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35 Comments on "U.S. Tesla Sales In October 2018 Up By 861%"

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Nice to see a clear “U.S.” reference first in the headline to know exactly what the article is regarding!

(I complain when it is not clear, sometimes I got to remember to give credit too when it’s done right.)

Kissa

Come on, compare to q3 first month… you bs is so obvious, that it just causes people to turn away from evs… 🙁

Ziv

I disagree, Kissa. They clearly stated, “… even in October Tesla is able to achieve a groundbreaking result of growth of 861% year-over-year. ”
Yeah, 3 sales are down from September and some of us had been hoping they would be able keep 3 sales stable/plateaued, but it is worth noting that last October there were very few 3’s sold at all. I take this headline as a reminder to those of us who were a bit disappointed by last months 3 sales figures that the path forward isn’t going to be without bumps, even if our disappointment is not entirely logical.

scottf200

They were perfectly clear in the first sentence: “It’s not the last month of a quarter, so no one should expect…”

Gasbag

@kissa

What language could they re-state this in that would make it clear to you?

ffbj

Igpay Atinlay.

Lee Ramer

WTF are you on crack? People turnign away from EV’s??? Did you not see the graphs? 861% growth since last Oct 2017 and that is just Tesla.

Ziv

Yeah, but Tesla is kind of the 500 pound gorilla in the EV field.
So far this year 96,000 3’s, 22,500 Prius Prime, 19,700 Model S, 18,800 Model X and the Volt trails along at 14,700. So the Prime and the Volt have 27,200 between them, and Tesla has 134,500 or so.
There is Tesla, and then there is pretty much no one else, this year and most of next…

Ron M

It’s not Tesla fault they had the vision and superior engineering intelligence. They only have a decade in the automobile industry not a century like GM, Ford, VW, Mercedes.

Harvey R

Very true. But the big question is: will this keep up through next year, especially past the early Tesla enthusiasts. I for one certainly hope so, but the jury is still out.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Well, I’m pretty sure that we won’t see an 861% YoY increase in October 2019. 🙂

But Tesla has a lot of untapped market potential here; not only the overseas market, but the lease market. What we’re going to see next year is a constraint to Tesla’s growth because their one and only assembly plant, at Fremont, is close to capacity. Even putting partial assembly lines under tents, there is a limit to how many cars they can make at one location. One limitation is the amount of space available for more loading docks, to enable a higher volume of parts to be shipped in.

I expect Tesla to start assembly at Gigafactory 1 next year, because as far as I can see, that’s the only space available for any significant expansion of assembly work until the Chinese and/or European Gigafactories are up and running.

antrik

With the accelerated Shanghai plans, it sounds like they are no longer sure about expanding Model 3 production even to the originally planned 10,000 per week at Fremont. There is no reason to start assembling Model 3 in Nevada.

Model Y and/or Semi are a different story, of course…

Richard

Tesla has said they can get to 7k per week model3 with minimal capex. Production should increase to 6k per week model3 in Q1 when new battery lines at GF1 come on stream

Ron M

I suspect kissa is a climate change denier and on crack.

REXisKing

The Tesla sales chart looking more and more like the S curve.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yup. Elon just recently was quoted as saying the growth in production now looks remarkably like the classic S-curve.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Quite aside from your gratuitous use of a pejorative, your entire premise is wrong. Year-on-year sales are absolutely the correct way to compare EV sales. Automobile sales have a lot of month-to-month variation for multiple reasons, and that certainly includes Tesla’s sales.

Now, it might have been more informative if the headline “U.S. Tesla Sales In October 2018 Up By 861%” had the words “…over 2017” or “Year-on-Year” at the end, but from various comments by staff here, they need to keep the titles fairly short for proper formatting.

There is certainly nothing improper about this headline.

Jason

1. Nope. YoY is not the correct way.

The holiday Easter is not a constant so it can change from one month to another month (in the following year).

X-mas is in the same month (each year) in the US.

2. The 861% delta is clearly misleading due to “basis effect”.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I guess I should have been more specific: Annual year-on-year sales are the correct way to judge growth in the auto industry. You are correct to say that comparing single months isn’t very meaningful, even on a YoY basis.

Tesla’s global automobile sales totals:
2012: 2650
2013: 22,300
2014: 31,655 (+41.95%)
2015: 50,580 (+59.8%)
2016: 76,230 (+50.7%)
2017: 101,312 (+32.9%)

2018 is going to be more than a +100% increase!

Jason

Still wrong. I was a buy-side Corp Bond Analyst and I never liked how the Big 3 would use selling days, run-rates, and other jargon.

Your revised metric of annual YoY is commonly refered to as twelve-month, single step, lagging indicator. It is backward looking.

The correct way is to compare actual vs potential and this gets rid of the numbers gamesmanship. You want to look at Tesla’s production run-rate in steady state and that becomes the benchmark and you then compare actual sales against this benchmark, respectively.

You have to be aware of basis effect, 5% of 100 is different than 5% of 1 million even though both use 5% — the effect is different basis of 100 vs 1 million. When companies like Tesla introduces new products, the basis effect creates pronounced effects and create distortions.

To get around the bias, use actual vs potential.

antrik

I’d say the explicit mention of “2018” in the title makes it clear that it’s a year-over-year comparison… Only ones to claim confusion are those being obtuse on purpose.

Nix

Is there something special about the very first full month of production that makes it some magical benchmark that means every single other statistic must be ignored and silenced?

EV Australia

Sort of agree. Year on year isn’t that impressive starting from a low base.

TM21

@Mark Kane
OK – the title was accurate, but then the next line says:
“In October 2017, Tesla sold just 2,115 cars. This past October, over 20,000.”
I’m pretty sure that they sold more cars than that in 2017, just most of them were outside of the US.

I do like your 1st and 5th graphs quite a lot.
Could you possibly do the same for total Tesla sales, i.e., global Tesla sales?

thanks!

Ron M

TM21 I guess you can’t compare Apples from Oranges. Read the article again there will be a quiz tomorrow.

Nix

Context is your friend. Being too pedantic over every word when the context is completely clear is not your friend.

Some Guy

Tesla grows 861% yoy. Shorts will interpret this as: “Tesla growth slowing down, less than 1000% yoy already, doomed to fail!”

Paw30

Come on. It is about the initiative in USD from government. See what January brings… I hope it stays like in October, but I am a bit skeptical.

Counterpoint

As Tesla begins Model 3 deliveries around the world, it seems likely the US numbers will either diminish or stay constant.

I have wondered the same.. When they start delivering to the rest of the world, how will that impact US sales?

przemo_li

Obviously will dampen them. Even now they are too high compared to historical split by price. However, Tesla will invest more into capacity so it’s anybody else guys how soon and how fast will Tesla expand into new markets. Maybe they will won’t to milk federal credits (and postpone infrastructure rollouts elsewere?)

antrik

Actually, it’s not obvious at all that it will “dampen” US sales. Historically, Tesla has had about half of their sales in the US — so it’s perfectly likely that any export will to *on top* of the ~5,000 per week current US deliveries.

(Considering that Tesla still has a bunch of demand levers to pull, it might even get >5,000 in the US alone…)

Nix

Global Model 3 sales will have to cut into potential US sales at a 1-to-1 basis. Every car off the production line sent overseas is a car Tesla can’t sell in the US.

Does that matter? A sale is a sale.

J P DeCaen

Hey Bob Lutz; bankrupt this!

bill lee

only off 30% from last month