Trend – Combustion Engine Out, Electric Motor In


AUG 18 2017 BY MARK KANE 43

Plug-in electric cars in UK (Go Ultra Low)

Nikkei recently posted on the latest movement to electric vehicles from the Japanese perspective – “Race underway to perfect successors to internal combustion engine.”


Volvo Cars’ T8 Twin Engine Range – S90, V90, XC60 and XC90 T8 Twin Engine AWD Inscription, Crystal White Pearl

The announcement on the ban of conventional petrol and diesel car sales from 2040 in the UK made a big splash worldwide, even though it’s more than 20 years from now.

Other countries are now pursuing electric transportation instead of being hostages of emissions too. China set a quota of 8% New Energy Vehicles from 2018, 10% from 2019 and 12% from 2020.

Countries such Norway, Netherlands, Germany and even India (where EV sales are low) are considering the shift solely to EVs. In the case of Norway, plug-in sales already peaked at 42% share!

Setting targets for 2030 or 2040 is vulnerable for change, but the signals are strong enough to discourage manufacturers from investing in future ICE technology, we think.

Carmakers are now deciding to develop models with the intent of offering a plug-in version of basically every model coming out in the future.

Volvo announced that from 2019 that all new models will be at least hybrids.

Even more recently, BMW announced the following”

“Electrification is one of the central pillars of the BMW Group’s corporate strategy NUMBER ONE > NEXT and the company has announced that all brands and model series can be electrified, with a full-electric or plug-in hybrid drivetrain being offered in addition to the combustion engine option. Additional electrified models will be brought to market in the coming years and beyond 2020, the company’s next generation vehicle architecture will be structured in order to enable new models also to be offered as a full-electric vehicle.”

Toyota apparently would like to leave the internal combustion engine behind by 2050, but it still believes in hydrogen fuel cells.

Nikkei notes that the switch to EVs could be tough for the Japanese industry, be as “contingent of manufacturers producing parts for conventional cars could make ambitious policy changes a challenge.”

Regardless, the change over to EVs is underway. It’s just a matter of time before ICE is out.

Source: Nikkei

Categories: General


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43 Comments on "Trend – Combustion Engine Out, Electric Motor In"

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Cool. That’s means there will be oodles of parts available for my dream legacy car.

Engine–VW Diesel.
Rear Suspension–Chevy (Corvair)
Gas Tank– Ford (Pinto)*
Air Bags–Takata

*Hard to Find.

Manifold &
Exhaust–Ford (Explorer).

Wasn’t there some kind of issue with Firestone/Bridgestone tires having problems with Ford Explorers?

Yeah, for sure.

Wasn’t the recall repair for the Ford Pinto a piece of wood to stick in between the axle and gas tank.

BTW…THANKS for fixing the site. Seems to operate much better.

I saw one once, a burned out hulk off the highway of a Pinto, just as on the radio was a story about Pinto’s catching fire.
A weird example of synchronicity.

“The Ford recall place polyethylene shield between the tank and likely causes of puncture, lengthened the filler tube, and improved tank filler seal in the event of collision[93]” Wiki

Accelerating your race to the Bottom: 2-Piece Windshields, and Vacuum Powered Wipers! Also, 6 Volt Wiring, 6V Incandescent Headlights, Flooded Lead Acid Batteries – that need to be brought inside in the Winter!

Oh come on! Split windshields are awesome! VW type 2 bus, anyone?

As for the dream car, (and speaking of VW buses) I’d add the safety cell and crumple zones from the VW T3 dropside pickup:

Thanks for the tip. Sadly it’s for a car, but that looks certainly like something that no one could survive, except maybe Gumbie.

And I would assume that you plan to build this all on the Suzuki Samurai platform?

Transmission from ’92 Dodge Caravan….

Mark, Mild Hybrids don’t have to even have your typical hybrid battery, correct? I thought the 48V stuff was a way to avoid paying for that full KWh of storage. They more easily integrate with Stop/Start.

This is what makes Volvo’s announcement something of a nothingburger. The point being Volvo may be taking step backward, to “hybrid-lite”. I think light bulbs can do pretty well at 48V, but not propulsion.

Hybrid lite is NOT a step back from Diesel only.

They are about equal, in terms of CO2. Less than hybrid means less than hybrid mpg. I’d agree, better NOx, particulates.

Look at thousands of parts in an engine and transmission then look at the few parts in a motor, you can see which may be more reliable.

Depends om the quality of the parts..
Had a Volvo, and drove it 890 000km with no mechanical problems. But living in an area with road salt in winter killed it. . After 20 some years.
Quality and maintenance us key.

You can have a washing machine where the motor fails after 3 years, while others last a decade.
Quality of materials, quality of design (Engineering) and quality of manufacturing – is what makes a product reliable.

There really are not that many parts in an internal combustion engine.Depends on cylinder numbers, and design. But I understand what you’re saying. They should be able to make an electric motor reliable, including the electronics. . But I work with electronics, and see what happens when it fail. Often the entire circuit board is changed, due to the complexity and time it takes to repair.
Fairly advanced boards, that is custom, can be very expensive. There may be a solution that a customer gets another PCB, while his is repaired and installed in another car.
But we will see how things evolve. Hopefulle they choose very high quality in every steps.

There are lots of parts, any one of them can go bad, statistically it is a miracle they don’t.

Rule #1: Never let out the Magic Smoke from Electronics! Ever!

“There really are not that many parts in an internal combustion engine.”

Reality check: There are about 200-300 moving parts in a gasmobile’s engine.

Not counting the non-moving parts.

+1. Going from up and down, to round and round inherrently ups the parts count. This became old technology the day light lithium ion came out. Lastly, this is Volvo, not some cheap car. Why such cheap “non-diesel” in a classy car?

Go with 20KWh, for your $50,000+ customer, Volvo. Give them what they are paying for.

“There really are not that many parts in an internal combustion engine.”

Watch this video of very simple 4 cylinder gas car engine. And this doesn’t even include the transmission or various emissions stuff.

The example I use is a refrigerator. Most of us have a refrigerator that has been running reliably 24/7 for years on end with ZERO maintenance. It is an electric motor operating it.

That hasn’t been true since we greened up the Refrigerators. Now they are lucky to go 10 years without needing repairs. My current Fridge has needed repairs twice in the last 10 years.

And how much car do you know that drive 24/7 for 10 years without repair. I mean lest say the average fridge motor works half of the time, it would be 12 hours a day. That would be easily 5 to 6 time what a driver would drive per day. So 1 fridge year would equate to 5-6 years compared to an ICE car and with zero maintenance.

What do you mean by ” even india (where ev sales are low)” . the electric cars sales in india was over 1% of the total market while in Germany and USA it was bellow the 1% threshold.

I mean in 2016

What are your sources for that statistic? I would love to see them. That would mean more than 30k plug-in sales there.

So far it has been very quiet about sales in India, hopefully that will change if what you are saying is true.

We are at an interesting state of the industry right now. EVs are still a teeny-tiny ~1% of vehicles sold. However, nearly everyone now finally sees that EVs are going to take over.

I mean if the upstart car company that is only on its 3rd mass production car can build a 220 mile range EV for $35K, then the established automakers should be able to do it too.

Meanwhile, regulators continue to ratchet up emissions reductions. Paris Agreement will continue on despite Trump (who it seems won’t last long). And the current cheap gasoline prices won’t last forever. They’ll be some war, some terrorist attack, or maybe just an eventual burn through the glut such that gas prices go back up a bit.

Everybody better their EV ducks in a row because the EV future is coming.

“I mean if the upstart car company that is only on its 3rd mass production car can build a 220 mile range EV for $35K, then the established automakers should be able to do it too.”

They can and are doing, GM with its Bolt and Volt are at the top of EV sales along with Tesla, and have been for a while.

There is just not that much demand for EV’s without government intervention due to cost and convenience.

The switch we are seeing to EV’s is entirely based on intelligent government policy (China, UK, France, Norway etc.) requiring zero emissions vehicles. If there was more customer demand, the car mfgs would be producing them.

France’s policy of all EV’s by 2040 is correct. Given roughly 10 year life span of vehicle, France would be 100% zero emissions on the road by 2050, the climate scientists goal for 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Yeah the 500k pre-orders for the Model 3 is all due to government intervention. It has nothing to do with the fact that it’s a great seminal effort from Tesla in the moderately priced car space.

You might want to re-read the article as it is all about the adjustment the car mfgs will have to make due to GOVERNMENT ACTION, not customer demand.

The Bolt is a nice car but it is still not quite good enough for the tipping point. It’s $37,500 base for a car that looks just like a typical $16K econobox. Add $700 for CCS port to access an unreliable, haphazardly placed 50KW chargers.

Its close but no cigar.

The base Model 3 is the tipping point since it looks nice, has 130KW supercharger network access, and $35K base price. It is still out of reach for most but captures enough of the market to be mainstream.

Bolt only needs power drivers seat and dynamic cruise, low cost options, to be competitive with T3.

Funny – I am pretty sure you cannot buy a $35k window sticker price EV in the US today, and there is no date set in the future when you will be able to buy such a car.

A slow, spurring, frail trend very much dependent on the quality of specific model launches. But yes, a trend, that is becoming less and less frail every day. The model trio of Bolt, Model 3 and Leaf 2 is starting to solidify this trend. Setting a higher ‘floor’ for EVs.

Maybe Nissan and Tesla may even force GM to SELL the Bolt a year from now.

“Maybe Nissan and Tesla may even force GM to SELL the Bolt a year from now.”

Bolt is the No. 5 selling EV in the US in its first 6 months. Not bad.

..but not all that good. At the moment production of the Bolt has been shut down.
For how long is anybody’s guess. I am thinking 3 months. So a resumption of production in the middle of October. Does not even look like they will hit 20k for the year now.

So this was ostensibly to retool the factory, and they probably will do something, but the main reason is the can’t sell the Bolt, or enough of them to warrant production.

Plenty of demand for the Model 3 500k pre-orders. They can’t build them fast enough.

I think the econobox look and weak CCS infrastructure (only 50KW, not enough, not strategically placed, not integrated with nav system) are hurting the Bolt sales.

Except Bolt sales are steadily going up. So based on last six months trends, nothing is hurting Bolt sales other than limited availability in US, Canada and Europe.

It certainly looks from demand that Bolt could sell 50,000 models this year if it could produce more the Ampera-e and Canadian models. Likely why the extension to the already scheduled production line shutdown to produce more Bolts.

The shutdown was to reduce sonic production not because the Bolt isn’t selling. They are retooling to allow 1 Bolt per 1 Sonic production before it was 2 Sonic per 1 Bolt. Doesn’t sound like the issue has anything to do with the Bolt instead it is an issue with the Sonic not selling.

You’re talking from an American perspective. Outside the U.S., the government policies and sales trends are much farther along.