Toyota’s Ogiso: 155 Mile (250km)* EVs Already Cheaper To Build Than Hybrids

SEP 13 2016 BY JAY COLE 34

The man who took over the reigns as the Chief Engineer for the current generation of Toyota’s Prius (and plug-in Prius Prime), before heading up a Toyota-affiliated brake manufacturer last year, Satoshi Ogiso has something to say about all-electric vehicles.

Toyota Prius Prime: now more expense to produce than a 250km/155 mile pure electric

Toyota Prius Prime: apparently now more expense to produce than a 250km/155 mile pure electric according to its Chief Engineer

Specifically, that they are now cheaper to build in many cases than hybrids – Toyota’s “bread and butter” go-to green technology.

“The cost of pure electric depends very much on range,” Ogiso told Forbes this week, “Up to 250km (155 mile) range, battery-electric vehicles already can be built for less money than hybrids.”

That said, Mr. Ogiso who is now President of Advics, still feels that the public wants, or even demands more range than that:

“However, the market generally wants more range. With a range above 300km (186 mile) a battery-electric vehicle will remain more expensive at least through 2025.”

Of Note: We should of course mention that this interview took place in Kariya, Japan, so Mr. Ogiso is most likely speaking on range in terms of the Japanese standard, or at best the Euro – NEDC standard; where 250 km/155 miles roughly translates to about 100 miles/160 of real world/EPA rated driving.

As we have seen with the Chevy Bolt EVs price-point, and backing up Mr. Sigas's point, long range EVs are still not price equivalent to hybrids

As we have seen with the 215+ mile/350km 2017 Tesla Model 3’s $35,000 base pricing, backing up Mr. Ogiso’s point, long range EVs are still not yet price equivalent to hybrids…and might still take 10 years to get there

One of Toyota’s top people in the field of electrification and hybridization (and even had a hand in the Toyota Mirai fuel cell vehicle) thinks that the ultimate automotive end game still rests with pure all-electric cars, but that the tipping point may yet be a decade or two out.

“For the next 10 or 20 years, and on a global level, our estimation is that more than 50% or 60% of the cars should be hybrid or fuel cell, with 30% of the volume going to battery electric.”

Check out the full interview which extends to several topics, including the rise (and fall) of diesel technology, Europe emission regulations, and of course the roll of regeneration/braking technology in the future – at Forbes.

Hat tip to Spark EV!

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34 Comments on "Toyota’s Ogiso: 155 Mile (250km)* EVs Already Cheaper To Build Than Hybrids"

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This is obvious and it’s why the Hyundai IONIQ is a scam.

In Europe the electric version is 9.000 € more expensive than the hybrid…

Ugh. So, that harks back to the Honda Accord PHEV also being $10,000 more expensive for the ~6kwh version and to the VW Jetta hybrid being (although better optioned) also $10,000 more than the base Jetta.

…ways to artificially narrate “people don’t want electric drive”. For the sake of the planet, and well-informed consumers “loyalty” is becoming a bad word.

How about the Fusion Energi being nearly 20,000$ more than the ICE variant. My local dealership has incentives on the ICE version that make them nearly 20,000, but they were pretty firm on the 40,000+ Energi I looked at a couple years ago.

That also means the Nissan Leaf is grosly over priced…
Hopefuly Nissan will lower the price along with the facelift and more range…
I think standard hybrids make less sense every day with no all electric range and two drive systems that could posibly fail plus they still have a transmission…

Facepalm.

TRIMS, man, TRIMS.

Electric version is different trim then hybrid.

Good, just release 155 mile at the price of Regular hybrid base, and 250 mile @ premium, guess subsidies will take care of premium for now

The purchase price of the vehicle has no meaning at all by itself.
The total operating cost is the number that everybody should be looking at!

Yes! Operating Costs ! You will be Laughing Until it’s time to replace Batteries!! All that money you saved on gas won’t cover it. Hopefully by then there will be a solution ..

Most EV batteries have a 8 year/100K mile warranty. The cost of batteries are coming down quickly, by the time a battery needs replacement, chances are they will be cheaper than replacing a regular gas engine and transmission.

The 8 years is for failure, it is prorated. After 8 years, if you have less than 70% capacity but it still works, good luck.

In 2011 the 24 kWh Nissan LEAF with 86 miles of range was king of the hill. 2016 GM is building a 60 kWh Bolt EV with 238 miles of range.
What will happen in another 5 years? I’m guessing that 238 miles will be seen as the bare minimum and $37500 expensive for such a short range car.

The elephant in the room that many people don’t want to see. Especially if you’re in the laggards camp.

Oh, and another, didn’t the 2011 LEAF have a 76 mile range?

GIMI, most EV are on track to have 15 yr battery life first.
Next you don’t replace with a new pack but a used pack or have yours repaired.
Why would you think otherwise?

What car maker is replacing with used packs? Nissan does not.

The EV packs are still too new but replacements for old hybrid packs are available. Check out Dorman Products. We should start seeing replacement packs for EVs in the next few years.

Lol, how many EV owners have actually paid to replace their batteries?

Batteries have already dropped dramatically, and a lot of new technology is in the works. Tesla have said they expect 10-15 yrs. for their batteries. What will it cost to replace them? Will the rest of the car still be serviceable?

Well, being in Japan I’m sure they are using NEDC miles. So he probably means a 100-mile vehicle costs the same as a hybrid.

If that is the case, why don’t Toyota make a Volt-like EREV with about 50 miles of AER and a small gas engine used only for generation?

A 155 miles EV is already cheaper to build than a hybrid, but a 186 miles EV will remain more expensive for the next 9 years? That doesn’t make any sense. We know the cost of batteries is falling a lot faster than that.

“However, the market generally wants more range. With a range above 300km (186 mile) a battery-electric vehicle will remain more expensive at least through 2025.”

Wow that’s wrong.

Simple math will prove this. Let’s start with his statement that a 155 mile EV costs less to build than a similar hybrid car.

At current pack level prices of around $200 kWh then a 45 kWh battery pack for 155 mile range EV would cost around $9000 today.

Using the 60 kWh, 238 mile Bolt as an example of an EV that has a 186 mile or more of range, it would need to have a battery pack that cost no more than the $9000 he says makes it cheaper than a hybrid.

So the 60 kWh pack would need to cost $150 kWh to satisfy this requirement to be cheaper than a hybrid.

I don’t think we’ll have to wait 9 years to get pack cost down to that.

We just need to get over it, they are not going to make EV’s. Its a shame , some of the best engineers in the world , they could build a heck of an EV.

Suspect analysis. Hard to imagine that future with hybrids falling into disfavor and actually losing market share.
These 10 20 year out prognostications are tenuous at best but always tedious.

Why even mention fuel cells as part of the mix when they are a mere pittance of current ev sales? Why? He was a Toyota exec.

He forgets that many governemt give money for EVs but not for Hybrids, that puts them in same price range. Only look in US you get 7000-15000 off a Leaf MSRP, or also Europe in UK, Norway, French, even Germany puts some money in now, China also.

What about a 200 mile EV is already cheaper to build than a plug-in hybrid.

So give me a Corolla size 155 mile EPA range rated EV for ~ $20k and watch me be told by my local Toyota dealer that it is only available in select {Compliance States} markets. If not, I’ll take one please, thank you very much!

Well, the good news it that we should expect BEV prices to drop significantly when incentives are lifted. :p

So . . . . why don’t you build one then, Toyota?

Duh.

What Toyota guy is saying is that Prius BEV with 100 miles range could be under $22K. If Bolt / T3 are success (ie, 50K / 400K cars), Toyota and others could produce much cheaper EV with lower range. For me, I find that 200 miles range for $12K extra to be too expensive.

I hope some cars do cost so low with 100 miles EPA range and can tow 1500 lb. That will be far more palatable for me than $35K car with range that I’ll rarely use.

Finally! Someone who agrees with me that BEV’s are cheap to build.

(I just didn’t expect it would be the Chief Engineer for the Toyota Prius)

The Prius is going to be the first victim of the Chevy Bolt.

2020 is the year. Vehicles should be PHEV as a minimum now. No plug no sale

“They say” 200 mile range was the magic number. I think 150 is that number. IF the price is right. A $23k base price 150 mile Toyota BEV would be awesome if DCFC was included. If it can be made for the price of a Prius with reliability and long battery life of NMC (not NCA) – then go for it, Toyota. I double-dog dare you. Hydrogen isn’t going to cut it.