Toyota And Ford Sink EV Sales Streak In October For US

NOV 4 2014 BY STATIK 57

The BMW i8 Was The Surprise Winner In October, Selling 204 Copies...Impressive Considering A Starting MSRP of $135,700

The BMW i8 Was The Surprise Winner In October, Selling 204 Copies…Impressive Considering A Starting MSRP of $135,700

What a difference a few months make.

21 Consecutive Record Sales Months For The Nissan LEAF Have Made It The Rock For EV Sales In The US

21 Consecutive Record Sales Months For The Nissan LEAF Have Made It The Rock For EV Sales In The US

In May and June of this year, plug-ins from Toyota and Ford where pushing the market to new all-time highs…now just a few months later, the duo is responsible for the end to a pretty impressive streak – 46 consecutive months of record EV sales in the US.

October was the first month US EV sales history (for this generation) that failed to be an improvement on the year prior.

The sales malaise for the Toyota Prius PHV can be explained by a poor allocation of inventory to America after a very hot late Spring/early Summer leaving almost nothing left to be bought; the same can’t be said however for the Ford Energi twins, who perhaps are just suffering from 2014 incentive lag.

While we still have to add in one more data point, the finally tally on October’s sales is about 9,600 EVs sold, off some 450 units from the 10,055 sold in October 2013.

Editor’s Note:  despite accepting the $7,500 federal credit designed to encourage EV sales, Kia currently feels no responsibility to report monthly sales on the Soul EV – InsideEVs will estimate the sales result after we have had a chance to gather and assimilate the information that is available

Of the 21 electric vehicles on the market in America today, 7 of them make up 85% of the sales volume, here is how those top six did this month – with the YTD historical averages heading into October also noted:

  1. Nissan LEAF – 2,589 (2,424)  +165
  2. Chevrolet Volt – 1,439 (1,615)   -176
  3. Tesla Model S – 1,300* (1,222*)  +78
  4. BMW i3 – 1,159 (621)  +538
  5. Ford Fusion Energi686 (1,036)  -350
  6. Ford C-Max Energi 644 (721)  -77
  7. Toyota Prius PHV – 479 (1,315) -836

So now that we have laid blame for the headline number…onto the good news.

The BMW i3, after an initial 3 months of fairly uninspired sales (all of which around 350 units) has now posted 3 months in a row north of 1,000 copies – the majority of which being the REx (or range extending) version of the car.

Separately, the high end spectrum of plug-ins continues to be very robust;  the BMW i8 surprised everyone this month by sell 204 plug-in sports cars, while Tesla remained strong with an estimated 1,300 Model S sedans sold and the Porsche Panamera S e-Hybrid also logged about 100 copies.

2014 Monthly Sales Chart For The Major Plug-In Automakers *Estimated Tesla NA Sales Numbers – Reconciled on Quarterly Totals from Earnings Report (Q1 Sales reported @ 6,457-3,000 Intl Delivers, Q2 7,579 total-approx reported International registrations, Q3 7,785 total deliveries ~ 3,900 US) *Fiat 500e data estimated for Jan/Feb

2014 Monthly Sales Chart For The Major Plug-In Automakers *Estimated Tesla NA Sales Numbers – Reconciled on Quarterly Totals from Earnings Report (Q1 Sales reported @ 6,457-3,000 Intl Delivers, Q2 7,579 total-approx reported International registrations, Q3 7,785 total deliveries ~ 3,900 US) *Fiat 500e data estimated for Jan/Feb

Some Other Points Of Interest For October 2014:

A Refreshed (and inventoried) B-Class ED Coming To The US In Early 2015 Will Mean Actual Sales Of Significance For The Model

A Refreshed (and inventoried) B-Class ED Coming To The US In Early 2015 Will Mean Actual Sales Of Significance For The Model

Top Manufacturers Of Plug-In Vehicles:

  1. Nissan – 2,589
  2. General Motors – 1,649
  3. Ford – 1,516
  4. BMW – 1,363
  5. Tesla Motors – 1,300*

Pure Electric Car Market Share vs PHEV In October*

  1. BEV – 5,123 – 54%
  2. PHEV – 4430 – 46%

New Individual Yearly Highs Set In September (previous high in brackets):

  • BMW i3 – 1,159 (Aug 1,025)
  • Mercedes B-Class ED – 98 (Sep 65)
  • BMW i8 – 204 (Sept 58)
  • Volkswagen e-Golf – 1 (first month)

 

Categories: BMW, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Fiat, Ford, Honda, Kia, Mercedes, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Porsche, Sales, Smart, Toyota, Volkswagen

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57 Comments on "Toyota And Ford Sink EV Sales Streak In October For US"

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Spec9
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Spec9

Well . . . Toyota deserved to be punished for its pathetic PiP and Ford deserves to be punished for lying about MPG ratings.

I just wish other sales more than made up for their drops.

DaveMart
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DaveMart

HOV privileges for low AER PHEVs are suspended until next year in Califirnia.

So until then the Toyota PIP and the Ford’s are hit hard.

David Murray
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David Murray

I haven’t heard anything about this, can you elaborate?

DaveMart
Guest
DaveMart

They ran afoul of this:
‘ The balance between BEV and REx may have changed in September when California ran out of the allotment of 55,000 plug-in hybrid carpool lane stickers (15,000 more green stickers will be available in January)’

(see Wraithnot below)

There seems to be a lot of esoteric calculation going on about gas prices and what not to account for BEVs increasing relative popularity, when there are simpler explanations to hand.

Bloggin
Guest
Bloggin

So we should expect to see a spike in PHEV sales in January for those holding out until the sticker is available.

Or there could be a spike in December(big end of year sales), with owners waiting until Jan 1 to apply for their sticker.

Jesse Gurr
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Jesse Gurr

“As of September 23, 2014, the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) has issued the 55,000 maximum green Clean Air Vehicle decals allowed by law. Assembly Bill 2013, effective January 1, 2015, authorizes DMV to issue an additional 15,000 green decals, for a new maximum of 70,000. Applications for green CAV decals will continue to be accepted at this time, however, decals cannot be issued until after January 1, 2015.”

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/carpool/carpool.htm

See Through
Guest

These decals are useless now. The carpool lanes are as slow as regular lanes. Besides, even in ICE cars, one can purchase one time HOV access by paying a fee.

The real loser in this game of carrot dangling? The real car poolers.

wraithnot
Guest
wraithnot

“The BMW i3, after an initial 3 months of fairly uninspired sales (all of which around 350 units) has now posted 3 months in a row north of 1,000 copies – the majority of which being the REx (or range extending) version of the car.”

Does BMW give a breakdown of BEV vs. REx numbers for the i3, or did you determine this using other methods? The balance between BEV and REx may have changed in September when California ran out of the allotment of 55,000 plug-in hybrid carpool lane stickers (15,000 more green stickers will be available in January)

HVACman
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HVACman

According to Toyota, the fall-off in EV popularity is because the auto-buying public actually is demanding those more-convenient and cost-effective hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles they will soon be marketing. Lotsa luck with that, Toyota.

I hope InsideEVs also tracks FCV sales (if) they actually come on the retail market – just for laughs:)

GeorgeS
Guest
GeorgeS

@HVACman

“According to Toyota, the fall-off in EV popularity is because the auto-buying public actually is demanding those more-convenient and cost-effective hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles they will soon be marketing”

LOL good one.

Brian Henderson
Guest

CARB forecast is for 1800-2100 FCVs total in California by 2018.

Current PEV numbers (110,000) have already reached CARBs 2016/17 projection.

With gas prices at 4-year lows, PHEV sales will remain soft. Low gas prices make hydrogen relatively more expensive per kg (gallon equivalent cost). Since FCV OEMs are including free hydrogen fueling in leases, this operating expense OEMs need to cover. FCVs will be lease only, so ownership life cycle is unlikely to extend beyond three years.

See Through
Guest

Brian,
With your first 2 sentences, you showed how inaccurate the CARB estimates can be!

liberty
Guest
liberty

Brian,
Can you provide a link to that carb estimate? It seems pretty reasonable, but makes the cost of hydrogen fueling station slook awful. The old number I saw was 53,000 by end of 2917.

See Through
Guest

HVACman,
Laugh all you can. One who laughs too much ends up crying at the end. Toyota FCV test cars are roaming the roads in San Francisco bay area as you laugh, with pretty good reviews from journalists.

TimE
Guest
TimE

Fuel Cell Vehicles are GREAT – right after you finish modifying them by ripping out the Hydrogen tank and fuel cell stack and replace them with a battery!

pete g
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pete g

@See Through

Their are 120,000 gas stations in the U.S. For Hydrogen stations California is building 2 with plans for 20 more. Again Who is going to buy a FCV?

Priusmaniac
Guest
Priusmaniac

That’s right lets all laugh together and really enjoy our big time laughing for now, for the future and for eternity. Ha Ha Ha. Lol.

Get Real
Guest
Get Real

Well, Fool Cell sales will be—0, since they are only leasing them so they can take them back and crush them ala the EV1.

Brian Henderson
Guest

What is missing is a month by month graph showing PHEV and BEV sales as two segments. The trend over the last year has been clear, more so as gas prices began to fall.

BEV Sales:
Nissan LEAF – 2,589 (2,424) +165
Tesla Model S – 1,300* (1,222*) +78
BMW i3 – 1,159 (621) +538

PHEV Sales:
Chevrolet Volt – 1,439 (1,615) -176
Ford Fusion Energi – 686 (1,036) -350
Ford C-Max Energi – 644 (721) -77
Toyota Prius PHV – 479 (1,315) -836

Further BEV vs. PHEV Sales:
For September …
BEV – 5,123 – 54%
PHEV – 4430 – 46%
Total: 19,538

For October …
BEV – 5,818 – 61%
PHEV – 3735 – 39%
Total: 9,553
(Soul EV data is missing, so likely higher BEVs, but % should be just a fraction of 1%)

I’m expecting Nissan and Tesla to continue to ramp up sales through Nov/Dec, plus BMW and Kia to expand their deliveries. As long as gas prices remain at 4-year lows both hybrid and PHEV sales will remain soft.

Assaf
Guest

+1

The reason for the streak’s break, in 2 words: gas prices.

Shows you how “smart” so many of our fellow American autobuyers are, basing a decision that will affect their wallets for several years, on the gas prices of the past two weeks.

Also a demo (somewhat surprising to me) that it’s the PHEV segment that is more sensitive to gas prices. BEV drivers are apparently the harder core, they’ve chosen the new tech and are willing to stick with it even if gas prices fluctuate.

OTOH much of the PHEV consituency seems far less interested in the tech a priori, they’re just there to reap gas savings. And if the current short-term math is less promising, they’ll bail.

Spec9
Guest
Spec9

Good point . . . a lot of the BEV people might just want to get off oil so lower gas prices might not affect their purchasing decisions. However, many of the PHEV people may be looking at PHEVs to save money & hedge against high oil prices . . . with gas prices dropping, they might stop looking at PHEVs (until the price of gas goes back up).

Rob Stark
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Rob Stark

Oil analyst are predicting we will see low oil prices for two to three years as Saudi Arabia fights for market share and lowers prices to discourage investment in new supplies in the USA and Russia. So low gas prices if you sign a standard 36 month lease for your full size pickup/SUV.

After a couple of years of being battered by low oil prices Venezuela et al will be more willing to play ball with Saudi Arabia about production cuts. And record oil prices to resume.

pjwood
Guest
pjwood

…and Canada. TransCanada is still trying to put Energy East pipes through Quebec. We’re blocking the sands, to the south, and I don’t think BC will let them go through the left coast. The backup plan was looking like twice the price of Keystone. At that, tar sands are the perfect Saudi Arabian target. $60/brl E&P costs, before refinement. WTI hit $76, today.

Just_chris
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Just_chris

I love OPEC, they are one of the most effective environmental organisations around. They’ll nail tar sands and shale gas in the short term and when they run out of oil hopefully economics will take over.

Priusmaniac
Guest
Priusmaniac

Well forcing Venezuela into OPEC is one more theory apparently. I recently heard another one that the economy was down and that people where using less oil. Or that Obama was after Putin trying to dry his resources as much as possible. Or that the UN was about to ban fossil fuel burn and that oil reserves would go the way asbestos reserves have gone. You choose…

Nate
Guest
Nate

Counting 100% of the i3 numbers in the BEV category isn’t right. 55-60% of the i3’s count have 2 fuel sources. So even though it is a range extended electric car it still fit the definition of a type of hybrid. So 55-60% of those should go in the PHEV category.

Nate
Guest
Nate

The gas price theory is weak compared to the PIP Inventory numbers, and HOV privileges. Large incentives help sell cars (see Atlanta’s BEV credit). If the only way to get HOV stickers in CA right now is through a BEV instead of BEV’s and PHEV’s, that helps BEV’s and hurts PHEV’s.

People want to see GM bring Voltec in a crossover/suv, and people want to see Mitsubishi bring the Outlander PHEV to the US should push for state incentives to help PHEV’s and not just BEV’s.

Lustuccc
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Lustuccc

It would be interresting Brian if InsideEvs could give us such a splitted chart as you do, with total BEVs and total PHEVs

GeorgeS
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GeorgeS

Gas is too cheap.

Brian Henderson
Guest

Makes for perfect time to add 15¢/gallon carbon tax on gas at the pump. CARBs carbon tax s set to take effect at year-end.
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/2014/09/10/california-carbon-gas-tax-could-cost-drivers-big

Assaf
Guest

+15 to that.

But on the Federal level, Hell will be frozen over before they increase the gas tax again. When was it last updated, the 80s or something?

And the funny thing is, they came up with this talking point about the gas tax being “regressive”. Just like the new talking point, how coal power plants are good for the poor. Give me a break. That’s not why they’ve been subsidizing oil and coal, so don’t fall for their crap after-the-fact justifications.

GeorgeS
Guest
GeorgeS

@ Brian

I agree. Make the tax a function of the gas price.

If gas goes up then the tax goes down.

One could ALMOST sell that.

pete g
Guest
pete g

We raise current taxes on gasoline. Use all the money for road construction and repair. Never call it a carbon tax, and never lower it.

Priusmaniac
Guest
Priusmaniac

Agreed but the ¢ sign should be replaced by the $ sign.

JRMW
Guest
JRMW

I dont think this is a PHEV vs EV story. It’s all about supply.

It’s very difficult to find a Ford Fusion or Cmax Energi in MN. I think there is one Ford Focus electric.

There are no PiPs

Metro area 4 million.

Hard to sell something when you refuse to supply it.

The EV manufacturers believe in their product and thus try to sell their cars. Lo and behold they sell.

GM only kind of wants to sell a volt. But Generation 2 is getting in the way.

Rob Stark
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Rob Stark

If there was demand there would be companies rushing in to fill supply.

JRMW
Guest
JRMW

There are companies rushing in. They’re called Nissan BMW and Tesla.
and if Mitsubishi gets their act together the Outlander will sell well here too.

pjwood
Guest
pjwood

If the ICE profit margin is 20%, and the BEV margin 10, what company is going to rush to fill consumer demand?

Consumers who hold out for electric drive are still relatively few. The others move along. Bingo, 20%.

JRMW
Guest
JRMW

Amazon’s profit margin is like 0.000000000001%. 10% profit margin in this economyIis nothing to sneeze at.

Ford and Toyota dont want to sell EVs or PHEVs. They have their reasons. But their individual decision doesn’t mean there’s no demand for the product or that other companies dont want that market share.

PHEVs and BEVs are currently a niche product. New technologies always are. Legacy companies often drag their feet producing disruptive products. But over time they often become dominant and the risk takers win all.

No different from when Apple went after Tablets while the other big dogs stood by or produced in limited numbers. Today they’re popular and dominated by Apple and Samsung.

My guess is that PHEVs and BEVs will go mainstream in 2020 after we finally get reasonably priced options with far better range. Like PHEVs with AER of 80 miles and BEVs of 200miles.

This would be derailed if Republicans are able fo neutron bomb incentives or if we have massive global depression, both of which are possible.

Priusmaniac
Guest
Priusmaniac

No really because it take a lot of energy, resources and time to make a new car company. It is not quite like a new restaurant that you can pop up in just a few weeks. Manufacturing cars from the ground up is very hard and rarely successful. That is why Tesla is so amazing by the way; because they succeeded in doing just that.

Stephen
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Stephen

I think it is a combo of the 2 main reasons discussed above.
1) sales of PHEVs were pulled forward by the CA HOV sticker limits and manufacturers havr not restocked enough
2) falling gas prices

Anon
Guest
Anon

When a major automaker claims they have completely disassembled a competitor’s long range electron powered vehicle, and casually boasts of being able to replicate it…

The market waits for you to follow through, and watches you die if you don’t.

Bloggin
Guest
Bloggin
PHEVs have a cost challenge. BEVs offer a direct fuel/maintenance savings that’s easy for the consumer to justify. Especially with the $7,500 Federal Tax Credit. Zero gasoline so who cares what it costs, a little electricity = savings. PHEVs, using the Fusion Energi SE for example, is a $11k premium over the Fusion SE. Yes there is a $4,000 Federal Tax Credit available, which brings the premium to $7,000. Then in CA take a $2500 Rebate. But we are still at a $4,500 premium. With Ford only offering $2,000 Cash Back, that leaves the consumer $2,500 in the red. That can buy a whole lot of gasoline. Hybrid is taking a hit because it’s still a $3,000 premium over the same ICE model. Which seems to indicate that the only viable solution going forward is for the automaker to offer a longer range BEV at the price point of the plug-in hybrid. But after incentives/rebates, it matches the ICE price. For example, a Fusion Electric SE with 200 EV mile range at $35k, minus the $7,500 Fed Tax Credit and the $2500 CA incentive and we are at $25k. The same price as the ICE Fusion SE and makes sense… Read more »
Just_chris
Guest
Just_chris

I understand low sales of volts and Toyota’s but why did ford drop off in such a massive way? If it is because of low oil prices and no hov stickers is there a massive spike in inventory?

Jay do u have any numbers?

ModernMarvelFan
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ModernMarvelFan

“1.BEV – 5,123 – 54%
2.PHEV – 4430 – 46%

this is ONLY true b/c all the BMW i3 sales are classified as BEV even though i3 sales are dominated by REx over its BEV version.

There are also more REX version in stock at my local Northern California dealers in 3:1 ratio. So, if you considering i3 REx as PHEV, then PHEV still accounts for more than 50%.

mr. m
Guest
mr. m

I think they mean oktober numbers. Not september! Because total is around 9.5k but september was around 10.5k cars!!

If i count oktober numbers and count 37% of the i3 cars as BEV i arive at 5088 BEV, which is very close to that 5123 BEV.

Conclusion: they already divided the i3 Number in Rex and BEV.

iwatson
Guest
iwatson
I see all this discussion about why EV sales are off. Is it production? Is it gas prices? Yes, both and several other factors as well. The two biggest deterrents to EV’s in general is lack of sufficient charging infrastructure and the fact that most EV’s are small. Americans love big luxurious cars. Most EV’s are small. Take for example the wonderful little Mitsubishi i-miev (we own one!). This car is perfectly suited for it’s task of being an urban runabout. It is without a doubt the easiest car to park I’ve ever driven, very roomy for it’s size with a tall seating position. Only 166 of these have been sold in the US this year. Americans have an aversion to a car this small, yet this car is the 6th best selling plug-in car worldwide based on car sales in other parts of the world where people are not so pre-conditioned against small cars. Supply is also a problem since most Mitsubishi dealers in the US won’t stock such an unpopular model. With it’s short range, the lack of charging infrastructure further hampers sales. Compare it’s numbers to the Tesla Model S which sells for 5 times more on… Read more »
EV Vinod
Guest
EV Vinod

EVs will continue up, PHEVs down, indefinitely. As EV range goes up, less need for gas miles. If ALL miles are electric, less months to pay back the price difference. And most important, electric lease prices getting lower, incentives are higher than PHEV. So, only see a larger and larger gap EV vs PHEV, and ultimately EV over hybrids.

oldevguy
Guest

I’m an old retired duffer that has driven BEV’s for over 10 years. Some I’ve converted my self until the Leaf was offered in 2010.The thing I don’t see addressed here is the small amount of maintenance required by BEV’s.Admittedly with no commute the 10,000 miles a year we put on our cars is alot less then most but the $27.00 annual cost for diagnostics of the electronics, rotate the tires and the inspection sure beats hell out of maintaining our old Suv. That’s the reason I feel most dealers don’t push Bevs.
IMHO