Time To Get Ready For A Flood Of Electric Cars

OCT 9 2018 BY EVANNEX 95

A FLOOD OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES MAY BE COMING [INFOGRAPHIC]

Electric vehicle naysayers often seem to visualize technological change proceeding at a slow and stately pace, ignoring the accelerating trends that are driving EV adoption. But as any mathematician will tell you, exponential growth is a powerful thing, and there are several reasons to believe that electrification is nearing the upward curve in the proverbial hockey stick.

*This article comes to us courtesy of EVANNEX (which also makes aftermarket Tesla accessories). Authored by Charles Morris. The opinions expressed in these articles are not necessarily our own at InsideEVs.

Above: Fleet of Tesla’s all-electric Model 3 sedans getting ready for deliveries to the company’s patient customers (Image Teslarati via Avron / Twitter)

Monthly EV sales have been increasing slowly but steadily for the past two years, and over the past few months, the growth rate has been accelerating. September plug-in vehicle sales in the US were more than double those of a year ago, thanks to mushrooming Model 3 deliveries. Model 3 is now the fourth-best-selling passenger car in the US. And every Tesla delivered increases the pressure on the legacy automakers to get serious about their own EV programs.

It’s easy to dismiss exponential growth in its early stages (especially if your company has a vested interest in dismissing it). Mainstream news outlets continue to insist that EVs make up less than 1% of the auto market. In fact, the global figure was around 1.7% in April, and it’s likely to crack 2% by the end of the year.

Above: Parking lot packed with a variety of electric cars charging (Image: Microgrod Knowledge)

Once exponential growth gets rolling, things can happen at astounding speed. One water droplet in a football stadium doesn’t even dampen the Astroturf, but if the rate of precipitation doubles every minute, the stadium will be flooded in less than an hour.

A new infographic from Raconteur (via Visual Capitalist) illustrates eight ways in which the auto industry is already being transformed by electric vehicles. Projections from Morgan Stanley indicate that EV sales will surpass legacy vehicle sales by 2038, and the global fleet of EVs will number one billion by 2047 (many EV industry observers would call these predictions conservative).

The transition to electricity will be a game changer for carmakers. As Reuters recently pointed out, EVs are currently a money-loser for Big Auto, but Morgan Stanley expects the negative profit margins to peak in 2023, and turn positive by 2029.

INFOGRAPHIC

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Written by: Charles Morris; Infographic: Raconteur via Visual Capitalist

*Editor’s Note: EVANNEX, which also sells aftermarket gear for Teslas, has kindly allowed us to share some of its content with our readers, free of charge. Our thanks go out to EVANNEX. Check out the site here.

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95 Comments on "Time To Get Ready For A Flood Of Electric Cars"

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Lee Ramer

I have a funny feeling that within 5 years the majority of people will want to have an EV. Demand will outstrip supply by a huge margin.

eject

Demand outstrips supply today.

Doggydogworld

Demand vastly outstrips supply for Ferraris, too. You have to bring price into the equation for useful forecasting.

Robert Weekley

It seems that you mixed up the word “Demand”, for “Wish”, unless you know of some secret “Reservation List” for Ferraris, with hundreds of thousands making a payment on that list, to be informed when they can “Confirm their Order!”

=j

Really? There are EVs I cannot buy new because I don’t live in California. That sounds like some unmet demand to me. I’m not asking for a $100 Ioniq lease (though I wouldn’t mind). I just wanted to pay MSRP.

Counterpoint

Ferrari seems content with their vehicle production. I haven’t seen or heard of any massive expansions. But Tesla is intentionally trying to quintuple (5x) their production rate. It’s not just about price. Market penetration also has a significant effect. I’ve seen maybe 10-15 Model S cars in the last 6 years, maybe 4 or 5 Model X, and exactly one i3 and one Bolt. But I’ve seen plenty of Leaf cars and Model 3 variants are becoming more common as well. So most people who are not EV enthusiasts are going to be introduced to electric cars by the best selling models.

Tummy

Just so you know… Ferrari announced at an investors’ meeting in September that it will launch an SUV, called the Purosangue, by 2022. Between next year and 2022, there will be 15 new model launches. Marchionne set a target for EBITDA of €2 billion ($2.3 billion) by 2022, nearly double today. They want a 60% mix of hybrid/electric and ICE. Last year they sold 8,398 cars last year and looking for volumes around 15,000 in the next few years.

Jason

That’s not demand, that’s desire.

Oscar L Teran

Exactly!!!!

Joe J

I just hope infrastructure grows at the same rate or even outpaces EV demand. As these things flood the market, public charging will need a major revamp to be able to support all of these cars. Soon the days of free AND available level 2 charging at the store will be gone.

Brian

We are in for a world of hurt here. There is no way that infrastructure will stay ahead of this kind of growth. Right now, I’m happy to have chargers here and there. Soon there will be lines at those chargers. This will put downward pressure on the growth in the short term. Until charging itself becomes a profitable industry, and then it will grow of its own accord.

Joe J

I suspect that until charging becomes as ubiquitous as a gas station, only those with home charging will really be purchasing EVs en masse. This could, however, create pressure for residential charging stations from apartment dwellers, etc. Even 120v outlets could be enough for many people to jump to an EV if it were at their residence.

M Hovis

That is until autonomous summon allows an apartment dweller to send their EV to a nearby charging pad. Full level 5 is still some years away. I’m talking about possibly 15 mph summon. Would be easy to set up a common bank of chargers that rotate vehicles in and out when their charge is complete.

tim

We all have electricity. We run it everywhere. The idea that there’s any real challenge running it to where people park their cars is ludicrous.

Joe

Couldn’t agree more. I had a Leaf for years with only street parking at home. Charging at work in a parking garage on 110v worked great for me. 40hrs / week * 50 weeks * 1.5 kw * 4miles / kWh = 12k miles / years of range.

SpecialGreen

Exactly, Joe. Having one electrical outlet per stall (even 120v) in office parking ramps and apartment/multi-housing parking will satisfy the needs of many future BEV owners. The last ICE owners will be those who are limited to street parking at home, combined with street or variable parking near work.

dmm1240

Traditional gas stations are already adding EV charging stalls. They consider the extra time required to charge a plus because it sends people inside for lunch, etc. Since they don’t make much from gasoline anyway, why not go EV?

john1701a

Cost (equipment, electricity, insurance, snow/ice removal) is too much for many business owners… plus the physical space required.

Robert Weekley

Name a single Branded Gas Station that survives on selling Gas, Alone?

No Smokes, No Chocolate Bars and Pop, No Coffee, No Chips or Magazines or Hot Dogs, etc! Even selling Air for Topping up your Tires!

Henrik

Any of the fully automatic chains? The first three that springs to mind: ST1, Ingo, Q-Star. Granted, ST1 often have a 7-Eleven attached but they are separate entities. Same way the EV chargers from Clever, InCharge and so on are separate but colocated.

=j

Are you sure? I’ll bet that you’ll start seeing EV chargers on every parkinglot light post once people start driving to next grocery store because they can plug in there.

phEVfan

As long as they can plug in for free. Make them pay for the electricity and the chargers will sit unused. It’s cheaper to charge at home (if you have it).

menorman

Depends on the price. Some places I know charge $0.60/hour, others charge $0.60/kWh.

Light

While valid for travel, most daily drivers do not go over 50/100/200 miles. Pick your EV according to use and these lines aren’t an issue with adequate home charging. Look how few Tesla chargers there are in sheer plug number vs number of vehicles and it shows they are used more in areas where the residential charging is the largest issue. In the wide open areas where (midwest) even with few chargers it isn’t an issue due to quick charges being rare for those with L2 home charging.

TL:DR Correct home charging vastly reduces fast charger/use need.
+ Exactly what Joe J said.

john1701a

A major challenge rarely getting proper attention is home charging. There are far too many that just plain don’t have the capacity, nor the desire to upgrade. This is why PHEV stand so much potential. They can replenish with just 120-volt connections already available for overnight charging in garages. But that too is limited to just a single vehicle.

Robert Weekley

2-4 years down the road, when they find themselves uoset that they are visiting gas stations, a BEV will get their attention!

phEVfan

The once every 2 months that I have to visit a gas station doesn’t bother me. Especially when I am on a long trip and that stop is less than 10 minutes.

menorman

If someone can get by with a PHEV and a 120V connection, they can probably get by with a BEV too on the same connection.

john1701a

Not enough hours available to recharge is a barrier for 120-volt connections.

Re-Volted

Depending on your commute. 120 is about enough for a 50 mile trip in the summer but closer to maybe 30 miles in the winter.

Ron M

I wish all the manufactures pay for installation and operation of Tesla’s charging system. This would quickly add more charging stations that could then be used by all EV’s.

Andy

The supercharger is a proprietary system, manufacturers (VW, BMW etc) are putting money towards CCS chargers (Electrify America and IONITY) which are an open standard available to all. A much better system that uses the same plugs other networks can use as well (it’s why there’s more CCS chargers around than Superchargers.

avtozhlob

Yes, EV – up, LCE –
down
down.

MABUS

Ev vehicle have a one in the garage, don’t need more for normal day, only in tryp

phEVfan

Is this a Russian bot or what? Now we have to deal with these on insideevs?

ziv
So other than Tesla, who is selling a car in the US (for starters) and has sales close to, or over 3,000 a month? Who is going to have a car for sale in the US in 2019 that will likely be built in numbers large enough to allow for 36,000 to be sold in a 12 month period, or even 9,000 in any quarter? If you can’t sell a relatively modest 30,000 cars per year in the US and/or a similar amount in Europe, that model isn’t a major player in the industry. It may set the table for a follow on vehicle, but in and of itself, it is a bit player. It can be a fun car to drive, it can be the first of its kind, as my Gen I Volt is, but it isn’t a major player. Obviously China is going to have several BEV’s that sell in large numbers relatively soon, and some Nordic nations have relatively high BEV sales of imported vehicles, but where is there a real threat to Tesla’s preeminence? Didn’t VW just roll the intro of one of its main BEV’s back by a couple quarters? GM is asleep at… Read more »
Joe J

The inflection point is where the demand for large and expensive trucks and SUVs begins to waver. Why invest the money as a company in a new product while you can still make really good money on your existing lineup? The only potential problem is that when that truck demand dries up, or when gas prices decide to jump again, these companies have to be ready.

As for the TM3, it seems Lexus is starting to feel a bit of pain. I just saw yesterday that they’re running ads claiming that their hybrid lineup doesn’t need to be plugged in and recharges while you’re driving, as if having a plug is an inconvenience.

robus

It really is a problem for brands that have tried to establish themselves as tech and performance leaders. They’re looking stodgy and sad these days.

Doggydogworld

US non-Tesla EV sales were 106k in 2014 and will be about 160-165k this year. That’s an 11% annual growth rate. What will turn that meager growth into a “flood” in 2019 and 2020? All I see are a bunch of 5-10k per year trickles.

Robert Weekley

Well, either the “Competing” OEM’s lose sales from EV’s AND ICE Vehicles, to Tesla, before they figure out how to play, or not!

Either way, EV’s are pretty much understood to be “Coming”, and Some have just discovered, “They are Here!”

Ted

One possibility is the continuing growth of Tesla. Eventually the legacy auto makers will want to stem the hemorrhaging of their sales. (Ah, you say 2019/2020 specifically… maybe not that fast.)

menorman

The “flood” comes from the secondary effects of reducing demand for other options. Automakers can only blame the sales decline on C/SUVs for so long and of course, some electric options are coming to that segment too.

Bunny

Thanks for pointing out that for the last 10 years Tesla hasn’t been a major player, by your standards, but hey for the last couple month, Hey Tesla, welcome to the party! lol

Robert Weekley

Nope! Bunny, no one has taken Tesla Serious, in the Oil Industry, and in many OEM corporate offices, like Toyota!

2019 will be a very interesting year for them, as Tesla pushesfrom the 5,000 per week point, up to 10,000 per week, in Model 3 alone, plus another 2,000+ per week in Combined Model S & Model X (Which might each grow to 1,500 per week, by a similar time frame!)

Tesla, is really only in Volume Serial Production since 2013, even though the 1st Model S’s were Sold and Delivered in June of 2012, and are only now getting High Volume Seial Production processes figured out!

So, 5 years old, is closer to the reality, not 10, as the 1st Roadster, was just an introductory Statement:
“Burn Rubber, Not Gas!”

ziv

The Roadster was built using a Lotus chassis so it wasn’t much more that establishing the brand and advanced beta testing of an electric drive-train. Tesla didn’t really hit the market, as Robert points out, until 2013. 5 short years ago. Amazing.

Fungus

2019 yes. But recently VW delayed their ID series from 2019 to 2020.
Tesla is sooner rather then later gonna open factory in china. They know how to do it by now, so it will be a copy of something that works, and by then maybe producing atleast 8-10k week.
Which means a double to 16-20k week

Then its factory in Europe. And before that maybe launch of Model Y and Semi, which needs factory space. Maybe another factory in US is needed?

I just hope Tesla have enough money for the expansions. Demand for the next five years (atleast) seems to be the least of worries.

ziv

Bunny, you might not remember this, but Nissan sold 30,000+ Leafs in the US in 2014. It seemed like everything was going great. Then both Nissan and GM ran out of gas in 2015.

Bunny

No offense, I was just being sarcastic.

Very pro EV here. Want everyone on board and looking forward to those EV semis!

We all know big oil will just become big petrochemical, but I guess everybody needs a job and worldwide plastics aren’t going anywhere but up in massive quantities.

Ziv

No worries. It is hard to believe but in 2013 and 2014 it seemed like the BEV/EREV renaissance was upon us. in 2013 23,000 Volts were sold and 22,000 Leafs were sold, which seemed huge and like we were on the cusp of seeing a real boom. Then in 2014 the Volt sales cratered to just under 19,000 while the Leaf went up to 30,000 and the S rolled in with 16k.
My car wasn’t winning the race but the race seemed to be speeding up.
Then in 2015 the Tesla S rolled by both of them with 25k US sales, the Leaf had just 17k and the Volt dropped further to just 15k. In 2016 the S kept growing to 29k, the X showed up w/18k and the Volt surged back up to 24k while the Leaf tanked to 14k.
I am glad Tesla showed up, but they were so expensive it didn’t seem like a real world vehicle for me or most of my friends. I am really glad that the base model 3 will be arriving soon.
And on big oil, I am thinking that perhaps oil is too valuable to burn! LOL!

Fungus

Did the Volt sales drop due to lack of demand, which means cars in storage and no buyers?
Or did it drop due to long delivery times?

Huyndai Kona now has two years waiting time lf you order today in Norway.

Robert Weekley

Well, 3 more Months, each of 20,000+ Model 3’s, is likely to get some Auto Execs concerned, and thier workers getting upset, at the risk of getting hit by that Tesla Freight Train

menorman

Nissan is doing a pretty good job with the LEAF in Europe. It’s the #1 car period in Norway and a top contender in other countries. Although their numbers here in America are down, it looks like they’ll move at least 50k of them in Europe alone this year and tens of thousands more in Japan. I could certainly see them bumping up on 100k worldwide for the year.

https://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-sales-europe-2018/

Fungus

Audi e-tron ?

Bjørn Vabo

The Ev revolution is final getting momentum. Thanks Tesla/ Elon/ model 3.. Seems like you accelrate the advent of sustainable transport..
I higly recomend Tony Sebas Clean disruption

Robert Weekley

Few understand the difference a decade makes, focusing too much on the current Quarter!

Richard

This is a bogus prediction because it doesn’t account for human psychology. The fact is that humans are very fickle beasts and we love to hop on the next trend. Once sentiment shifts, then is it it is all over for FFV’s virtually overnight.
There is simply no way that sentiment won’t shift in the next few years, once model3 goes global and new cheaper versions of BEV’s become available. Very few FFV’s will be sold after 2025, no matter what people might think now.

Joe J

On top of cheaper versions, used cheap BEVs could be the main entry point. A car is a huge investment, but I’d think that most consumers would feel safer spending less on a used EV to test it out rather than shell out the big money initially for a relatively new (mainstream-wise) technology.

Sean M

Absolutely. I bought a 2013 Nissan Leaf with 30k miles two years ago for $9k.
It now has 50k miles on it, and it’s still worth $9k.

Joe J

I did the same with a 2013 Volt with 98k on the clock for the same price. It now has 131k a year later. Without used EVs on the market, I would have never been able to afford one. Even “cheap” $30,000 EVs are too much for a broke commuting college student!

menorman

Yep, same story here except a six month shorter time frame and now mine has 60k on the clock. But the high price of oil/gas keeps the value strong.

menorman

Yes, and with the market expanding each year, that’s that many more used EVs available on the marketplace for people to get into. As it is, 2019 is going to see a lot of people getting to the end of their three-year leases that they signed in 2016, including for some of the first Bolts and Prius Primes. Their presence on the marketplace will be quite welcome. Also, as people continue to get their Model 3s, many people who might’ve leased even within the last 18 months will probably turn them in early, adding those to the market too.

However, since historically, about half of all EVs have been sold in California, it’s really time for them to start migrating across the country. The availability of used Bolts and other options with longer range will help vs. the compliance cars from earlier years.

Jason

Exactly!

G2

Agree Richard; once general acceptance happens who is going to buy a LICE vehicle? Even if EV makers can’t meet demand the public will buy used EVs, or cheap used LICE until they can get their hands on EVs. What happens to LICE manufacturers then? My guess is they will scramble to consolidate (Big Three turns into Medium One) and adapt in the attempt to survive.
EV makers will then have the opportunity to buy up manufacturing sites for cheap (like Tesla did in Freemont) with experienced workers. This new capacity then goes toward meeting EV demand.

john1701a

There will be a drop in resell value drop as plug-in choices grow. In return, basically anything with a plug will retain higher than ordinary value. The transition will be interesting as demand grows.

Fungus

It might be a rare occation, but in Norway the demand for plugin hybrids have plunged. Nobody wants them used, so the prices inntje second market did drop hard after summer. Not as hard as diesel of course which now are down to 18% of total new sales, but so much that owners had to go significant below estimated market price to get rid of their plugin-hybrids

menorman

Exactly. Add to that the financing drying up as EV sales strip the value from ICEs and people aren’t able to get cheap credit for them anymore.

Richard
This is a bogus prediction because it doesn’t account for human psychology. The fact is, humans are very fickle beasts and we love to hop on the next trend. Once sentiment shifts, then its all over for FFV’s virtually overnight. The demand curve will not be logical, it will be like waking up one morning and realising, s… no one is buying ICE vehicles anymore when literally six months before they were still selling in high numbers. What is more, the existing fleet of FFV’s will be retired in a hurry much much sooner than predictions. It will be an en masse abandonment of FFV’s new and existing. There is simply no way that sentiment won’t shift in the next few years, once model3 goes global and new cheaper versions of BEV’s become available. Very few FFV’s will be sold after 2025, no matter what people might think now. And by 2030 it will be only the die-hards still driving FFV’s. I think there are quite a few people high up in the auto industry(and elsewhere) that have more than a hunch that this is how it will play out. But they are doing everything in their power to slow… Read more »
john1701a

FFV = Flexible Fuel Vehicle

That has been what the abbreviation represented industry-wide for over 20 years. Many will be confused by an alternative meaning. Please just use ICE like the majority of plug-in supporters.

G2

Or ‘LICE’ for Legacy ICE.😉

Cypress

I suspect that somewhere between Stanley Morgan’s overly conservative estimates and your overly optimistic estimates, lay the truth.

Ron M

Well it looks like oil is heading for $100.00 a barrel oil which translates to $4.00+ a gallon gasoline.
More people will want an EV however the legacy companies are still not interested in building EV’s. They offer lip service and talk but manufacturer very few EV’s.

Bunny

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-The-Oil-Price-Rally-May-Soon-End.html

I’d bank on the Moron to release some of the reserves to keep from hitting 100/barrel.

He doesn’t give a crap about EV’s but he knows he’ll have to appease his base.

menorman

I wouldn’t think him to be that strategic and in fact, a release has already been authorized and plans are in place for it to happen soon. But of course, it does make sense for the SPR to be sold when the price of oil is high from a budgetary point of view.

Joe J

They’re catering to the current buyers. Gas is relatively inexpensive at the moment, and people want big trucks and SUVs, and they’re willing to pay big money for it. Why would a company want to change its strategy when it is very profitable at the moment? I suspect when the cycle comes around and people want smaller and more efficient vehicles, legacy companies will follow the trend. Until then, there isn’t much economic pressure to do so, and although the EV fleet is growing, EVs represent a niche category that they can afford to ignore (at the moment). If gas nationwide spikes back up to $4.00/gallon, I don’t think car buyers will be very interested in getting a full-sized pickup to use as a commuter vehicle.

ffbj

This sort of thinking, if you can call it that, is exactly why legacy auto is getting killed.

Joe J

I agree completely. In order to survive in this day and age you always have to be planning for the future. High gas prices could change the tide quicker than these companies can adapt.

Bunny

Add in the new 15% ethanol ruling,
That’s just about as stupid as it gets.

Geesh, need more EV’s ASAP.

menorman

It’s not that people organically “want” big trucks and SUVs, they’re very actively programmed via advertising to want them. The automakers could very easily promote their EV offerings just as fervently, but they don’t. Probably because they know that they can’t meet demand if people really started buying en masse.

Andy

Is it that they’re not interested, or that it’s not technologically/economically feasible for them to produce EVs to replace the majority of their range? When companies can profitably build $15k 200+ mile sedans/hatchback, $20k 300+ mile CUVs and $30k 500 mile pickups then they will probably jump in. Currently we’re at the $50k 300 mile sedan, $35k 200 mile hatchback and the $100k 300 mile CUV (or $80k 230 mile CUV).

How many $50+ cars do Ford/GM sell? How many $80k CUVs do Honda and Toyota sell? Who’s going to spend that much on a Ford/Toyota?

Very few people.

Give it a few years and when the technology is ready/economically viable then they’ll almost certainly produce those BEVs. They’ve all said they’re going to, it’s just cost that’s the issue.

Fungus

And EV’s also gets an extra boost due to renewable energy production like solar panels. Making your own «fuel» on hour roof sounds very tempting if you live far enough south

sir_tech

Most disappointing thing for me is Hyundai/Kia’s low production of their very good BEVs (Kona and Niro). They are the only ones currently with very good BEVs with good range and reasonable price. But they are limiting the production despite huge demand for these vehicles. They did the same with Ioniq earlier. Samsung used to be small player in mobile phone industry but with smartphones they became the biggest company in sales and second biggest in profits.

Hyundai and Kia need to be inspired by Samsung’s proactive approach to new technology. They probably already spent lot of money on R&D to build Kona, Niro and Ioniq. All they need to do is to increase production. Except Tesla with base Model 3, there is no competition for them for the next 2 years.

Joe J

The problem was that they never intended to sell as many initially, and therefore did not set up battery supply contracts and agreements for such a large quantity. No matter how many people want to buy them, if Samsung or LG or Panasonic has a contract for only 30k cars per year, that’s what they’ll make. Even if Hyundai or Kia wanted to produce more, they still need batteries and currently have no way to produce their own.

When they renew their contracts, they could potentially request more batteries per year.

Cypress

“They are the only ones currently with very good BEVs with good range and reasonable price.”

GM has the Bolt EV which matches that description.

menorman

They’d planned 100k EVs across the two brands and several models in 2018, but obviously demand is outstripping supply by a large margin and I’m sure they’re working as hard as they can to get more batteries. However, that does highlight the importance of PHEVs and mid-range (i.e. ~150 miles/40kWh) EVs which thus allow more cars to be built with the same amount of battery.

L. David Roper
Light

If Tesla turns a profit from here on out does that prove the 2019 BEV production white loss line, and all years forward, completely incorrect?

Andy

Presumably it’s the industry as a whole, not one high end car manufacturer.

ffbj

It’s like another nail in the coffin for legacy auto, add in what Trump is doing for costs, and falling demand for their products, which will just get worse, as we move more deeply into peak auto, and it’s a pretty ugly picture for the old guard.
I think half of legacy auto will be gone, or absorbed in the next 10 years.

Kosh

“Projections from Morgan Stanley indicate that EV sales will surpass legacy vehicle sales by 2038”

NOT. FAST. ENOUGH. according the IPAA……… we need a “moon launch” effort on this now.

TJKR

I am ready to raise the BS flag on this “infographic”. The biggest factor holding back EV sales is the failure of big auto to build them at big volume. First of all, outlook for near term, 2019, 2020, is unclear on how many EV’s will be sold… I contend the only growth will come from Tesla. No one else, except for the Chinese for the Chinese market, is seriously going to build 300K-600K EV’s a year. Also there are no noteworthy actions taken by big auto to build batteries to a scale like what Tesla is building and will plan to build… at this point it’s just partnership agreements and intent but no solid numbers. EV sales will continue to grow but it’s all Tesla and the Chinese. Model Y can’t come soon enough.

SpecialGreen

Tesla has shown that you can sell EVs without a traditional US auto dealership network. I would not be surprised to see a few Chinese brands introducing TM3-competitive EVs in the US using familiar brands, like Volvo (Geely) and MG (SAIC). I think BYD is already the best-selling electric bus in North America, so I would expect the bus/truck/fleet vehicle market to be open\. The actual battle could be between Tesla and BYD/BAIC/SAIC/Geely, as those are the only types of companies producing in sufficient volume to meet demand, and the latter companies have the means to do final assembly in the US, migrating to production. The major US and EU manufacturers may be limited to spectator seats, unless at-least Chevy and VW can ramp.

dmm1240
Disruptions generally take 12-13 years. With vehicles it might move more slowly because of the longer shelf life of cars/trucks. That said, look at what has happened in other industry segments. Kodak. By 2000, Kodak had invented and held several patents on digital photography but refused to promote their advantage because digital photos would kill their photographic paper and chemical development segments. Kodak declared bankruptcy in 2012. Every mall featured 2-3 bookstores in the late 1990s. Waldenbooks, B Dalton and Barnes & Noble were must have tenants for any mall owner. Then came Amazon and ebooks. Only Barnes & Nobles survives and it is just hanging on. TurboTax has eliminated tens of thousands of jobs for tax accountants. Newspapers are in sharp decline due to the rise of online media and blogs. Many once prosperous newspapers have shut their doors or have drastically cut back on coverage, size, etc as advertising revenues shifted to the internet. Travel agents were once necessary to book a trip. Try and find one now, done in by websites such as Expedia, Kayak and Travelocity. 3D printing, still in its infancy, is advancing at a fast clip threatening the traditional factory production model. Netflix, Hulu… Read more »
Andy

Alternatively Kodak spent billions developing Digital Cameras, seeing the direction the future was heading. They spent billions in a fast moving emerging market only to find out the market moved a different direction to the one they expected… At that point they had no money left and… Oops.

Something every manufacturer is probably aware of.

William L

When Tesla starts selling 35k version Model 3 and making money doing it. The tsunami of EVs is coming to market.

Eric Donsky

Good article. The only thing I would add is that the main reason for the battery fires of the Galaxy line of products is that Samsung chose to reduce the thickness of the coated polyolefin separator from 25 to 9 microns with the intention of increasing volumetric energy density. One of the major roles of a separator is to maintain separation of the electrodes to mitigate the risk of a fire caused by a thermal runaway reaction or thermal instability. Reducing the thickness of the separator lowered the temperature at which the separator experienced considerable shrinkage or loss in dimensional stability. I hope this info helps