The EV Revolution Has Been Ignited, And Now It’s Unstoppable

Tesla Model S

NOV 26 2017 BY EVANNEX 76

Tesla

Tesla’s Model 3 (Instagram: model3ny)

THE TURNING POINT FOR ELECTRIC CARS IS FAST-APPROACHING

The original mission of Tesla was to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. That mission is beginning to bear fruit as the auto industry (and countries worldwide) are committing to vehicle electrification.

When can we expect the turning point? Some argue that it’s beginning this year. Others see the EV transition happening over the next decade. However, some naysayers (hint: oil companies) estimate that any turning point is still decades away. In order to gauge possible transition timeframes, Inside Climate News did a recent round-up of predictions from various sources.

Before looking at these forecasts, it’s important to establish a baseline for what makes an electric vehicle comparable to a gas-powered car. To answer that question, “Gregor Macdonald, editor of the Terrajoule industry newsletter, lays out his criteria for a ‘competitive’ electric vehicle: it must go 200 miles without recharging and be priced, without subsidies like tax credits, within $3,000 of a comparable gasoline model. ‘The buyer won’t even have to consider the additional savings of the lower lifetime running costs’ for EVs, he said, noting that they are cheaper both to fuel and to tune up.”

*This article comes to us courtesy of EVANNEX (which also makes aftermarket Tesla accessories). Authored by Matt Pressman.

Tesla

Electric cars like the BMW i3 and Nissan Leaf are becoming more commonplace on today’s roads (Image: BMW Blog)

Along with the Tesla Model 3, “The Chevy Bolt and the Nissan Leaf are getting close to his criteria already, and more choices are coming from across the industry… Macdonald thinks some EVs will be competitive worldwide by 2020. Other analysts see a longer trajectory. Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, thinks it will be seven to 15 years. Earlier this year, Sussmas co-authored a study for Carbon Tracker titled ‘Expect the Unexpected’ that predicted EVs would be cost-competitive with internal combustion engine vehicles by 2020 and have a 35 percent market share by 2035.”

Tesla

More EVs are being introduced by automakers (Chart: Inside Climate News)

What are others predicting? Not surprisingly, “Oil industry forecasts tend to be much more conservative. The oil company BP, for instance, forecasts 6 percent of the worldwide fleet will be electric by 2035. Many oil companies say the peak is decades away. They cite the International Energy Agency’s ‘current policies’ scenario, which finds slowing growth but no peak for oil beyond 2040—but assumes no changes in policy or technology. But some, including Shell, say it could come as soon as 2021, and are changing their business models accordingly.” To that end, Shell just installed its first electric vehicle charging station.

Above: The automotive industry is poised for a transition from gas-powered cars to electric vehicles (Youtube: VOA News)

Many industry experts point to the International Energy Agency forecast: “The IEA itself sees a range of possibilities. A chart of deployment scenarios in its 2017 Global EV Outlook shows some curves rising more sharply than the current pace of technology might suggest—and some meeting or exceeding IEA’s own scenario for what’s needed to achieve the goals of the international Paris climate agreement.”

Tesla

IEA’s four differing electric vehicle deployment scenarios looking ahead to 2030 (Chart: Inside Climate News)

Regardless, recent country (and city) policy announcements are pushing this timetable forward. It’s reported that “France and Britain committed in July to ban the sales of all gasoline- and diesel-powered cars by 2040… [and] China, the world’s largest auto market, announced last month that it will set a deadline for automakers to stop selling internal combustion engine vehicles and set emissions targets for automakers. California officials said they want to follow suit.” Governments are galvanizing worldwide: “From Europe to Asia, and in parts of the United States, policymakers are talking about how to make it happen.”

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Source: Inside Climate News

*Editor’s Note: EVANNEX, which also sells aftermarket gear for Teslas, has kindly allowed us to share some of its content with our readers. Our thanks go out to EVANNEX, Check out the site here.

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76 Comments on "The EV Revolution Has Been Ignited, And Now It’s Unstoppable"

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It’s ridiculous to talk about government policies being the deciding factor in how fast, or slow, the EV revolution progresses. Even in Norway, where gasmobiles are taxed up to 100% of their purchase price, the market penetration of PEVs has been at best only about 40%! What has been driving the EV revolution, and will continue to drive it, is EVs improving in ability and reliability, coming ever nearer being fully competitive with gasmobiles. Governments which have “gotten out over their skis” in trying to mandate sales of zero-emission vehicles — California’s CARB circa 1999 and China just this year (2017) — have been forced to roll back their mandates when faced with the reality of technological limitations. Nobody can predict how fast EV tech is going to advance, because it depends on advancements in EV battery technology. I have hopes for a quantum jump in true competition with EVs using solid state batteries, but we haven’t even seen those appear yet in consumer electronics. So solid state batteries are probably at least 4-5 years away from appearing in EVs. Several legacy auto makers are aiming at 2020 to start making mass-produced PEVs (Plug-in EVs), but realistically I don’t expect… Read more »

Pushmi- as pragamatic as you are, at least (I believe) you acknowledge that battery technology is the final nail in the coffin.

I was talking with my buddy the other day and it occurred to us that beyond electric cars, batteries are SO prevalent in society. Everyone now walks around with a battery in their pocket, and the need to streamline and improve battery storage and size extends WAY beyond just electric cars.

Necessity is the mother of invention, batteries will dictate the future and Big Oil ignores at their own peril.

It seems you are countering your own argument in regard to ev adoption and how it’s influenced.
You say governments have little to do with it, the pace of ev adoption, but in regards to Norway that clearly is not the case.

Then let me develop that point a bit further: Even with Norway imposing taxes and fees on gasmobile purchases up to 100% of the purchase prices, PEVs are still less than half of the market. That pretty strongly indicates, at least to me, that PEVs are not really competitive with gasmobiles… yet.

I agree with the headline; the EV revolution is unstoppable, and in fact I think it has been since 2008, when Tesla started selling the Roadster.

But what I’ve been wanting to see since I was in my mid-teens, if not before, is for the electric car to make the inefficient, dirty, noisy, poison-spewing gasmobile obsolete. Even Norway’s up to 100% tax on gasmobiles isn’t doing that!

Is limited battery tech stopping the EV revolution? No; sales of PEVs continue to grow year-on-year, but only incrementally. Limited battery tech is keeping this disruptive tech revolution from shifting into high gear!

Additional point. Many people (myself included) support a very high gas tax…like adding $2/gallon to it….because it would make EVs more quickly cost competitive. However in Norway gas is over $8/gallon. So in addition to the massive tax on ICE cars that you mention, you also have to buy $8 gasoline for that car. So one would think EVs would have a complete stranglehold on the market, but they don’t. It gives us some reference points on EV adoption in the US.

I think you are missing an important point: In Norway a significant proportion of the population is on an EV waiting list! Once model 3, Nissan leaf, Hyundai Kona etc start delivering – percentages will increase very quickly. Norway will hit 50% PEV during first quarter 2018, 75% by 2020.

Exactly. Supply is half the story. Most people go to a car lot and get sold something that’s on the lot. Very few order a car and wait. If the lot the go to is full of gascars and there’s a waiting list for EVs, the they’re going to sell a ton of gascars.

Norway also has all or mostly hydroelectricity making the benefit of EVs greater than most countries.

China which will have the most EVs but has and will continue to have for a long time mostly coal fired electric generation (about 75% of total) might well get more benefit from small gas/electric hybrids.

My guess is that China, at least in part, is big on electrics because they CAN run on domestic coal and not expensive imported oil.

2016 electricity in China:

25% renewables
4% nuclear
65% coal
6% other (mainly natural gas)

It is still an extremely high share but they are working hard to reduce it.

It will be interesting to see the 2017 numbers in a few months.

Actually as of 2016 China’s coal generated electricity was 57.2% and is dropping.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China

You’re both right. The 65% coal is the share of generation in 2016. The 57% is the share of installed capacity. Coal and nuclear are usually based loaded unlike wind, solar and natural gas. Base loaded plants make up a larger percentage of generation thaninstalled capacity because they’re “always” on.

Hi from norway yes we have 40~50% Electric/hybrid car infution the problem now is partly one of avalablitiy and by that i meen both of cars as in numbers (tesla model 3) but whats REALY lacking is a 250-300 Miles Stationwagen prefrably made by Volksvagen or even Volvo it sell another 10+% for norwegian Electic cars.

Erling makes a good point: it’s not just overall availability of EVs that’s slowing down adoption in Norway, but a market segment availability issue.

The Bolt and the e-Golf have a lack of cargo space desired by a large segment of car buyers, and there are as yet no competitive station wagons or small SUVs.

Once more EVs in those market segments become widely available, ( and we keep hearing about them ) the % of adoption should go up rapidly.

You’re too quick in your dismissal of EV competitiveness. The first truly competitive EV with serious mass market potential has not yet had a chance to prove itself. That car of course is Tesla’s Model 3, the only sub $50K EV that doesn’t come with a premium or serious drawbacks compared to its ICE rivals.

> “You’re too quick in your dismissal of EV competitiveness. The first truly competitive EV with serious mass market potential has not yet had a chance to prove itself. That car of course is Tesla’s Model 3, the only sub $50K EV that doesn’t come with a premium or serious drawbacks compared to its ICE rivals.”

GM Bolt? Renault Zoe?

In the US, the Bolt is a visually tiny car. So I don’t consider it a potential mass market car.

I offer that China is determined to make electric vehicles both a solution to their current solution problem and a means to enter the global automotive market with the unfair advantage of a very large home market to drive down costs.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c430622d3a61baef87a63d3a98fa0ab932844926ac9c4249c0dbb1838670d3b8.jpg

I agree that batteries are the key to transitioning to EVs. And, we aren’t there yet. Nothing proves it’s a difficult task more than the weakness exhibited by Nissan’s battery packs and their exit from their battery JV with NEC.

Batteries relate to EV Costs, but Apartment/Condo & Workplace Charging are two big stumbling Blocks that need overcoming to get expanded use of EV’s happening, even in America. That, and decent Fast Charging on/at Freeways, Malls, and Offices!

So, performange, range per charge, are battery related, but infrastructure, less so. Both sides need work.

I think by 2020, we will be able to see how serious things are, or how commited the other OEM’s are, to EV’s!

Very well said. So true!!

Adding Level 2 chargers to any given site is fairly straightforward. Electricity is pretty much everywhere, and the charge cords themselves aren’t that expensive. Given some demand, they’ll get put in pretty quickly.

So I don’t think getting rental/workplace charging installed will be any harder than getting cable and internet installed was. Once EVs reach a critical mass, chargers will be everywhere a few years later. Rental units will come with a charger as a matter of course.

“…Apartment/Condo & Workplace Charging are two big stumbling Blocks that need overcoming to get expanded use of EV’s happening, even in America.”

Early in the motorcar revolution, there were no gas stations. If you wanted gasoline, you had to buy it in a can or tin from a hardware store or drug store. That didn’t stop the motorcar revolution, now did it?

When Joe Average starts buying an EV instead of a gasmobile, apartments and cities will install EV slow chargers wherever people park overnight. Demand will be such that they will have to. Supply follows demand; supply does not have to precede demand.

Of course, it would help if more cities were to adopt the municipal mandate that I think San Francisco now has; that any new apartment building has to install EV chargers in its parking lot. That will help the EV revolution, but it’s not necessary for the EV revolution to advance. Supply and demand in the market will force that change even without any government mandate.

I’m not sure that’s a really good example, because early motorcars were a huge step up from what was available before then (horse and buggy). EVs are only incrementally better than ICEs in terms of functionality.

The key to success is more about being cost competitive. I’m optimistic that we’ll cross that boundary within a decade. BP’s 6% 2035 projection is utterly absurd. We’ll hit that we’ll before 2025.

Early motorcars weren’t all that superior: unreliable, expensive, and needing parts and repairs that weren’t that easy to get in many sections of the country. Plus they needed special fuels (no shoveling wood into a boiler, at least if you had an early ICE car). Balloon tires were easily punctured, and solid tires uncomfortable. First adoption of automobiles was like first adoption of home computers – hobbyists and enthusiasts led the way.

I strongly recommend to read something about The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894.
(google it up)

In short, the forecasters of that time expected that “In 50 years every street in London will be covered with 9 feet of horse manure” (Times of London, 1894)

Those who predict that we will be still mainly driving ICE cars in 50 years, are as wrong, as the sentence above.

There will be a snowball effect. Who once drove EV, will want one, as soon as he can afford it. And they will recommend to friends and neighbours, and so on…

It will grow exponentially.

Smoot, quite, dynamic car was once a luxury, like a bathroom in 19th century.

Now, in our countries almost everybody has at least one.

Condo’s will get electric charging, when the condo owner buys a Tesla.

So, in 2-3 years, you should start to see rapid change there.

+1 I see a raise in ev-awareness in Holland, but f.e. in my neighbourhood, there is no raise in the number of public charging places for years now. I see more and more phev vehicles (and some proper ev’s) struggling to find a charge. Let alone when 100.000’s more hit the road. The lack of infrastructure is the bottleneck for rapid ev adoption i.m.h.o.

If the recent analysis of Tesla semi battery economics is accurate, that breakthrough might already be here and just needs to be scaled.

Doubt. As Elon Musk repeated in basically every conference call, battery breakthroughs are BS.

Q2 2017 call (by Seeking Alpha)
> Elon Musk: I would love it if we could have some breakthrough. It’d be awesome. I think there are some interesting things on the horizon. But then the time it takes from something working in the lab to working at moderate production levels to working at higher production levels to optimizing the cost is several years. So it’s not like it suddenly pops out of nowhere.

Yeah, Tesla’s multi-billion dollar investment in current battery tech is Tesla betting a very large amount of money that no real tech breakthrough is on the horizon.

Or to put it another way: Tesla got tired of waiting for the next quantum jump in battery tech, and decided to deal with the problem of battery availability and cost by scaling up production using current tech.

Even if that next quantum jump in battery tech appears, Tesla’s bet may still pay off. It will take some years to get that new tech into large-scale production, and Tesla can hopefully license the new tech and put it into production as soon as anyone else. Sure, it will cost a lot to convert Gigafactory One over to making a truly different type of battery, such as solid state batteries; but the fact that Gigafactory One already exists and is set up for high-volume battery production should still put Tesla one giant step ahead… assuming they can license the new tech!

Elon also stated that his battery factory was designed to easily and quickly adapt to the new battery chemistries that are evolving.

Tesla is suggesting that tiny new Roadster can fit a 200KWh battery. That doesn’t seem feasible without significant improvement in battery density. Ditto for fitting a 950KWh battery on a truck. The truck price structure and energy usage numbers suggest that $30K extra buys you ~380KWh of extra battery capacity which boils down to $79/KWh retail. That’s a breakthrough in itself.

Maybe Tesla is bluffing about all this but that would amount to defrauding investors, which would be a pretty desperate thing to do. I doubt tesla’s situation is that desperate yet, despite some recent setbacks.

“…that breakthrough might already be here and just needs to be scaled.”

Maybe. And maybe Tesla’s optimistic talk of medium- to long-range BEV semi trucking is just that: just talk.

Analysts, or at least the ones whose articles I have read since Tesla’s Semi Truck Reveal, are still predicting that the Tesla Semi Truck will be used for only relatively short-haul freight operations. Operations where the tractor returns to a central fleet parking lot every night. That’s a toe in the door for BEV heavy trucking, but it’s a long way from making the diesel semi tractor obsolete.

Because it will take at least 2-3 years before Tesla puts any Semi Tractor into even limited production, and because it will probably take a year or two after that before the economics of using those trucks is fully established in actual practice, my hope is that we’ll see that needed battery breakthrough happen before the question is fully answered… a breakthrough which will make the question moot.

I would tent to think that what would actually limit the Tesla semi is where Megachargers get installed. Long distance doesn’t look difficult if there’s plenty of them located on main trucking routes. Why? Because 400 miles added in 30 minutes is phenomenal.

Tesla’s Semi batteries are apparently NMC, like Powerpacks (and most every non-Tesla BEV). GM says NMC cells will be <$100/kWh in 2021. Tesla's truck pricing implies <$75/kWh in 2020. That's very aggressive, but Tesla's "expected" price has a way of falling by the wayside. Remember the original $89k Roadster? Actually $109k. The $49,900 (after tax credit) Model S never really happened, either. Will we see a $35k Model 3 in the first year of production?

They're already pulling the "Founder's Series" trick (for a Semi? Seriously?). The first year or so of deliveries will have an extra $20k for batteries, which takes that $75/kWh up to $115. That's right in line with GM's cost, so no breakthrough needed.

Roadster2 is another story. It requires a chemistry breakthrough.

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

I love watching this unfold at the ever-increasing pace. Big Oil is giving themselves another 22 YEARS before it even hits their bottom line- hahahaha!!

Reap it.

I have solar, electric everything and multiple BEVs but yet I am tempted to say not so fast.

The biggest thing that can trip up (or delay) this transition is charging infrastructure for long distance driving.

It has to be as available and as reliable as gas stations for the masses to readily adopt. Without this, BEVs are only good as a city roundabout, even a 200mi BEV.

Tesla is the only EV manufacturer serious about this and has an ever growing network in place with:

1) Close to freeway access
2) Multiple stalls
3) Economic incentive to discourage charge bay hogging
4) 24/7 access
5) Rates equal to local electricity rates

The Leaf, Bolt and i3 fan clubs may yell about the Combo charges available but take away the free no-charge program and they’re next to useless. Nobody in their right mind will pay $10-12 and wait at least 30 mins for the equivalent of 3 gallons of gas. Many such owners (myself) included has another vehicle, using the BEV primarily as a city roundabout. Not all can afford this luxury.

That’s a great point regarding the free Level 3 charging being wiped out overnight. But I actually have trouble believing that would ever happen simply because of the effort and reason chargers are installed in the first place. Why would an owner of a charger price it to the point that no one uses it anymore? Kinda defeats the purpose and effort of installing it, yes?

Prices can only go up. Said chargers was $10/30min session and now they’re $12. Do you honestly believe when the free programs are over, they’ll drop the price significantly?

It depends. When EV range keeps increasing, the need for charging drops. And when you factor the ability to “fuel” at home, I don’t see EV’s going away overnight simply if the Level 3 chargers jacked up their charge rates.

But that’s just me. Likely I’m wrong, which is pretty common!

Not saying EVs are going away.
Just saying the mass adoption could be faster if L3 charging network operators followed Tesla’s model. Then again, it would be hard for them to make money if they did that.

Yup, I see that too. A reliable nationwide multi stall 150+ kW ChargePoint Express Plus fast charger style setup is what we are going to need to have mass adoption of EVs. See my article from almost two years ago:
http://nextgenfastchargenetworks.blogspot.com/2016/02/reliability-needed-i-believe-we-can.html?m=1

Would like an EV, just doesn’t work. Own a new 20k 41 mpg ice because to see my daughter and grandkids is 622 miles door to door not going to make my life revolve around charging my car, then it needs to sit 3 weeks minimum unattended no where near a plug while I’m on the road in my 18 wheeler.
EV would make great second car but who needs one when my first car gets less than 5,000 mile a year use?

Why wouldn’t you sell your $20k ICE and buy a $15k used Volt that can road trip any distance and still average 100-200 mpg blended driving because it can go about 40 miles on a charge? Drive almost daily in pure EV mode and save ICE travel for your road trips? Problem solved.

This is a great example of an edge case. 3 weeks sitting is of course not a problem. Your use makes sense with $20 a gallon gas and will be the last 5% of ICE.

I would argue the EV Revolution started on March 31 2016 – th Tesla Model 3 Reveal. It was the game changer.

Cool.
Really enjoy the show Model 3 Owners Club.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCry4jW5bcj9DIs7ZwA95Ylw

That is possible. I have wondered if people willing to put down earnest money for ~455,000 Model 3’s will, in hindsight, be seen as the tipping point beyond which the EV revolution shifted into a higher gear.

But we won’t know for a year or two. It’s entirely possible that we will only be able to see in hindsight what “The Breakthrough” is, or will be, in the EV revolution.

It depends if they can actually make them or not. Right now it’s looking like the reveal was pretty premature because the battery line wasn’t even operating.

Not the battery line, the stage where they assemble cells into assemblies. It also was not “not running” just running far too slow with vendors misrepresenting status.

From Article” When can we expect the turning point? Some argue that it’s beginning this year.”
——-

It’s a big wide turn that started with the generation 1 Tesla Roadster. The turn will be completed when EV new car sales exceed ICE new car sales… in 5-7 years.

And that will happen, I suspect, according to the Level of Condo / Apartment / Workplace Charging created, since we already have an eye on a growing number of 200+ miles vehicles, and even some 300+ mile range cars! The new Tesla Roadster doubles that range, again! I know pickup drivers that would keep their truck for hauling heavy trailers, but buy an EV to commute, if they could charge at their apartment or at work!

When those points are solved, having an EV Truck, that can replace their ICE Truck is the next step.

IMO the real turning point is mass adoption. That’s when the early majority phase of adoption happens, and that’s at 16% market share. See Loren McDonald’s great article on this:

http://evadoption.com/when-will-electric-cars-go-mainstream-what-does-that-even-mean/

The transition recipe is quite simple:
Constantly increasing tax for fossil fuels,
constantly decreasing prices for kWh(cap)
and the market will do the rest.

Unfortunately almost all governments are slaves of the military-industrial complex (MIC) which includes the oil industry (yeah, those nice, medieval oil sheiks buy our weapons with the money we pay them at the gas stations) and therefore they keep the oil price from getting to high and too low, so the MIC keeps making profits and people keep buying oil. Oil price too low – no profits. Oil price too high – people start saving oil, more ecologic energy, switching to electric mobility – no profits either.

One could argue that in the near term, as EV’s reach 3,4,5% of vehicles it would ease demand for gas. Lower gas prices could extend the US love affair with the SUV and also increase gas sales in developing nations, taking up that slack. In the near term, EV’s may just be helping out gas guzzlers with no noticeable savings. I hope not but any thoughts?

Look at what happened with whale oil prices in the last 50 years or so of the whale oil era, as use of whale oil was gradually replaced with kerosene. The price of whale oil fluctuated wildly; a roller coaster ride of falling demand, followed by decreased production and significantly higher prices, which encouraged more production but also lowered demand, followed by overproduction and plunging whale oil prices, which caused some production to be shut down… rinse and repeat. We are already seeing the same pattern with petroleum, with the shift to secondary and more expensive sources such as fracking and tar sands, followed by overproduction from fracking in the USA, especially in South Dakota, and then shutting down a lot of that. Yeah, it’s a familiar pattern. One of the reasons that whale oil was replaced by kerosene is that kerosene prices were stable. When someone switched from whale oil to kerosene, they no longer had to worry what the price of whale oil would be next week, next month, or next year. The same advantage will benefit those switching from using gasoline/diesel to using electricity for powering their transportation needs. After the switch, it will be much easier… Read more »

+1

Great point about price volatility.

Oil has been on a roller coaster ride since the Texas RR commission lost control of the market circa 1970.

Oil demand climbs about 1 million bpd each year. That’s 28 million gascars (37.5 miles/day / 25 mpg = 1.5 gal/day, so 28 million cars burn 42 million gallons or 1 million bbls each day).

We need to sell 28 million EVs/year to offset the annual 1 million bpd growth and hold oil consumption steady. The steepest line (IEA B2DS) in the graph above is about 15 million EVs/year even in 2030. At that level oil demand would still grow 0.5 million bpd each year, about half the current rate.

The actual picture isn’t quite that bad because gascar MPG should also improve due to hybridization, etc. Still, it’s pretty sobering.

There always has to be a post bashing Nissan battery reliability or lack of TMS. The newer batteries are much better. If lack of TMS keeps the cost down I’m all for it. It’s up to buyers to do their homework pre-purchase. Don’t buy a Leaf if your area has super hot summers and you want to L3 charge regularly.

Producing at least one EV at the lowest possible price point is going to get more butts into seats, an important factor in overall EV adoption. If it can’t meet your needs then you go upscale, hybrid or stick with a gasser.

I’d love to see local governments step up to the plate in providing charging infrastructure. Providing L3 charging at cost of electricity plus charger depreciation would be net zero cost to local taxpayers and draw traffic and $$$ into commercial areas.

“If lack of TMS keeps the cost down I’m all for it.”

You personally might be for it, but the lack of TMS means the Leaf can’t safely be fast-charged, and the erratic nature of how well its battery packs hold up — or don’t — over the years, is perhaps the main reason the Leaf’s resale value is so abysmal.

That’s not the way to advance the EV revolution. That’s the way to keep it locked into a niche market.

I want a lot more from the EV revolution. I want to see EVs make the gasmobile obsolete. I’ve been wanting and waiting to see that ever since I was a teenager. I’m 62 now, and I’m fracking tired of waiting!

The main reason the Leaf’s resale value is so abysmal is for the last couple years brand new ones were available for $10-13k after tax credits.

$8k for a 3 year old Leaf with $31k MSRP looks like awful resale value, but $31k was a mirage.

Now that the mission is accomplished Tesla needs to get bought out by a real automaker before it goes bankrupt.

I’m sure that thought has crossed the minds of the fossile OEM’s. In a few years they will wish they had the foresight to do that a few years ago, before the market cap made it impossible.

“Market cap made it impossible” is a very astute declaration, and I absolutely agree on its significance and relevance to this situation.

GM is among a few others (0il/gas Corps.) looking at a feasible time plan to work around to this seemingly intractable Tesla Market Cap “issue”. The 2021 time frame is a good focal point for these established and profitable business to pursue their consumer vehicle market share interests. They will be looking for signs of weakness with some of the outstanding Tesla Bond obligations, that will begin to start to hitting Teslas forward profitability and balance sheet right.

Hopefully, when Toyota brings its best Solid State battery technology and revolutionary counter punch to Tesla and the rest of the ICE/OEM EV sector, this won’t significantly detract from Teslas forward performance and profitability, as it becomes, hopefully, a preeminent global volume EV manufacturer.

Toyota’s is a classic case of innovator’s dilemma. They’re king of the hill. Hybrid Synergy Drive is still delivering the milk. So, why invest in anything other than diversion, hydrogen or the coming battery “breakthrough”. On most of the planet, HSD will remain a selling point compared to Mild Hybrid.

RE: Tesla bonds. They’re private placement won’t make it easy to spot the secondary market falling apart. In ’21, they’ll also be winding down to maturity. I’m still thinking the tone of the last call sent a strong message they’ll focus on liquidity.

I agree Toyota (and many others) are trapped in a classic Innovator’s Dilemma. But it’s not at all clear to me how investing in Hydrogen cars helps their case in any way. That has always struck me as completely illogical, unless it was truly a misstep based on not understanding how quickly battery tech would improve. But if so, they should stop throwing good money after bad and drop it post-haste.

Al said:

“Now that the mission is accomplished Tesla needs to get bought out by a real automaker before it goes bankrupt.”

1. Tesla has made a good start on making gasmobiles (and diesel trucks) obsolete, but there is still quite a ways to go!

2. Tesla is a “real” auto maker, thanks.

3. To paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of Tesla’s financial failure have been greatly exaggerated. 😉

I think governments and municipalities will accelerate the death of the ice. People are all about convenience. In fact one of big arguments against evs is that they are not convenient enough, and in some cases that’s true. If you drive long distances or don’t have easy access to overnight or daily charging.

But that will change with governments just not allowing you to enter the city driving an ice. It will become too inconvenient to own an ice, a reversal of fortune.
Also as with diesels, the resale value will plummet as few will be willing to buy a car whose access to cities has been restricted, or entirely done away with.
China did back off their Draconian demands on the legacy car industry, but only temporarily and partly due to excessive lobbying by the industry.

“China did back off their Draconian demands” I’m not convinced this was draconian as much as it’s out of necessity.

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/06/china-study-warns-impending-oil-production-peak-world-oil-market-squeeze-peak-recoverable-coal-2020/

Interesting article. Thanks.

I agree city bans will be the turning point. Robotaxis will make city bans more viable, accelerating the trend.

“The turning point for electric cars is fast approaching”

And tomorrow is only a day away.

No. Sorry. It isn’t.

Why do I say this? For the same reason I say a lot of things, at least regarding the U.S., if it isn’t for sale in at least the “lower 48” then the manufacturer hasn’t committed to selling EV’s in the United States.

You’re selling them in California, that nice, what are you offering on the East Coast?

Don’t we deserve the option of buying BEV’s? Don’t you want our money too?

And now, a moment for everyone to tell me I’m wrong.

You can only be wrong if someone else’s opinion is different and proven right … that’s all we are doing nowadays online, expressing opinions, whether someone directly asks or not …

The IEA loves to play safely…

Just like those forecasting that about 50% travellers by train prefer their back turned in the direction of the train.

What about Tony Seba? I first found out about him when a link to a video of Seba, author of “Clean Disruption” giving the keynote address at the AltCars Expo and Conference,Sept 19, 2014, was posted on this very web site (in a comment). In that video Seba projects EVs being 100% of the new car market by 2030.In more recent videos, like his presentation to CRES in June 2017, he has moved up the 100$ electric date to 2025. Essentially, he posits that once 200 mile range EVs are come down to the price of a low end car like a Nissan Versa, car buyers will have to be nuts to buy anything with an ICE. He is saying the cost decline trajectories of batteries (and solar) are running ahead of his projections. Seba is an outlier but, I like his approach. In my opinion he is safe in saying no new ICEs by 2030. The recent Tesla Roadster reveal has put an expiration date on ICE supercar manufacturers of about 2020-2021. The stated price of the Roadster and more importantly, the Semi, implies that battery costs will be close to if not less than $100/kWh ($180k for 1000… Read more »