Teslanomics Predicts Tesla Model 3 Will Boost US EV Sales By 40%

4 months ago by Steven Loveday 16

The Tesla Model 3 could spur a U.S. EV sales bump by and incredible 40 percent on its own.

Ben Sullins of Teslanomics has sifted through more data aiming to prove that the upcoming Tesla Model 3 could cause a measurable U.S. sales surge in the EV segment for 2017. In his previous segment, Sullins estimated that Tesla has the potential to produce 83,000 Model 3 vehicles prior to the close of the year.

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3

Though Ben’s estimate is much higher than our actual sales estimate (25,000-35,000), it is still lower than Tesla’s ultimate production goal, which puts the automaker at 6,000 cars a week by the end of 2017, and moving to 10,000 in 2018. If Tesla proves Sullins and InsideEVs wrong, and achieves what it’s setting out to do, the impact will be even greater.

Tesla plans to hit the potential to deliver hundreds of thousands of vehicles per year by the end of 2018. At maximum capacity in Fremont, the automaker believes that it will make 100,000 combined Model S and X vehicles, along with 400,000 Model 3s, in a year’s time. Ben’s research and math, based on a reduced version of Elon Musk’s log growth curve, takes all of this into account when coming up with the 40 percent segment-growth figure.

With all of Ben’s calculations in place, he estimates a whopping 286,000 EVs sold in the U.S. in 2017. Even if Tesla doesn’t come close to its numbers, significant growth is imminent.

Video Description via Teslanomics by Ben Sullins on YouTube:

In Q1 2017, we’ve seen a 47% jump in electric vehicle sales. If we use this as a baseline for each quarter, we’re looking to be up 30% from last year. Recently, I shared my projections for 2017 sales of the Tesla Model 3 – which I predicted will be about 83,000.

This week, we’ll be looking at how the Tesla Model 3 will likely increase EV sales by 40%. This will increase overall EV sales by 82%.

I think sell they’ll 5,000 Model 3s per week sometime in late October. By the end of this year, I think they’ll top out at about 6,000 Model 3s per week. While these estimates won’t be exact, I did use the log growth curve that Elon Musk stated is what Tesla will be use once all the production equipment is installed.

So, with my prediction of 83,000 Tesla Model 3s sold in 2017. we’ll see a total of 286,000 electric vehicles sold in the US this year. That’s a 40% increase due solely to the Tesla Model 3! It’s no wonder Tesla is the dominant player in the EV market – and their stock is soaring.

However, there are skeptics out there as to whether they’ll be able to pull it off. In fact, even I have my doubts. Regardless, even if they’re close, this is going to be a huge year for Tesla and the EV market overall.

Source: Teslanomics via Teslarati

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16 responses to "Teslanomics Predicts Tesla Model 3 Will Boost US EV Sales By 40%"

  1. ground_gainer says:

    Kiss all those state EV rebates goodbye!

    1. Get Real says:

      Kiss all those serial anti-Tesla trolls who are to cowardly to post under their real usernames goodbye!

    2. Asak says:

      Why? The point of the rebates is to encourage EV sales. Why would they go away just because they’re working? CA is talking about hundreds of thousands of EVs (eventually millions) on the road, not a mere 83,000.

  2. unlucky says:

    I can’t see them making 83,000 by the end of the year. Not for sale to the public at the very least.

    Would be amazing though.

  3. Someone out there says:

    Maybe. I also think that the model 3 will boost sales of other EVs as well. The model 3 will cause a lot of press and make more people curious about EVs and some of those will probably buy an EV, something they didn’t think about before.

  4. Klaus says:

    Let’s take a set of assumptions, mix them with an incomplete set of data, and make some predictions. I guess as a form of entertainment it may appeal to some.

    Wake me when Ben puts some stakes on his assertions.

  5. MaartenV-nl says:

    After 5 months the increase compared to 2016 is 45%. If the rest of the year can keep that up, this year will end around 230,000.

    The 83,000 cars is the perfect execution if all the ordered parts are turned into cars. 1,000 per week in July, 2,000 per week in August, and 4,000 per week from September onwards.
    This does not take into account getting to 5,000 or more at the end of the year.

    This is not realistic. The first weeks there
    is no production. Than the numbers will climb from ~100 with a few hundred per week. There will be days or perhaps even a complete week the assembly line will be stopped for tuning, corrections and improvements.

    A near perfect execution is between 65,000 and 70,000 cars in 2017.
    Still very impressive.

    If we assume that the line starts in week 27, and no cars come of the line for two weeks, with the first 100 in week 29. We can increase the production by 200 per week for the rest of the year.
    Giving 4,700 in the last week of the year and ~57,600 total for 2017.

    Still more Model 3 than either Model S or X.

    1. trackdaze says:

      Are we not overlooking some of what it produces will go overseas by the end of the year.

      1. Might make to Canada, but It does not appear to support Europe Delivery before 2018.

  6. Terawatt says:

    Well it’s good to see they’re putting themselves out there making predictions.

    I can’t wait for your follow-up pieces where you look back and assess the accuracy of earlier predictions.

  7. James says:

    Pretty presumptive.

    83,000 sales is far too optimistic for 2017.

    Tesla will ramp up to that in 2018. There will be fits and starts in 2017 as they iron out a whole heckuva lot of things from production to quality control.

  8. Chris O says:

    One can’t simply add guestimates of Model 3 production numbers on top of existing EV sales. Model 3 is so far a head of the pack that it will cannibalize sales of all other sub $40K EVs that aren’t discounted enough compared to Model 3’s price to establish a value equilibrium.

    1. Asak says:

      Or alternatively the Model 3 could prove disappointing on actually inspection and bomb.

      It could be it does well and increases awareness of EVs and sales increase across the board in addition to Model 3 sales (my personal guess).

      The truth is we really have no idea at this point. We just have to wait and see.

  9. BillT says:

    It will be interesting to see what happens to BMW 3 series sales when volume model 3 sales really get rolling. I think BMW is right to be concerned.

  10. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    Here’s hoping that Teslanomics’ estimate of 2017 Model 3 production will prove to be accurate! Altho my guess is that InsideEVs’ lower estimate is more likely to be correct.

    But either way…

    Go Tesla!

    1. Doggydogworld says:

      I’d love to see this prediction be right, also. 5k units/week in October and 6k/week by yearend exceeds Musk’s own estimates. First time in recorded history Musk was shown to be too conservative.

      More realistically, Teslanomics will need to change their name to Teslafantasy.

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