Tesla A Future Trillion Dollar Company?

OCT 3 2018 BY MARK KANE 54

Forget about billions, now we’re talking trillions!

According to Ron Baron, founder of Baron Capital (with $28.3 billion in assets under management) and a major Tesla shareholder (around $440 million), Tesla is going to be huge.

Baron forecasts that Tesla could be a $1 trillion company in revenue by 2030. $500 billion from the battery business and $500 billion from the car business, not even adding in the other technologies.

“I think it could be a $500 billion battery business, $500 billion car business. I give that better than 50-50 chance,”

The value of Tesla could beย $60 billion in three years. Sales volume is expected to be bigger (over the longer term) than any other automotive group today.

“The fact that it could be a $60 billion company in three years, I give that maybe 80 percent chance,”

“I think this is going to be the biggest car company. I think they’re going to have 10 million cars, 15 million cars”

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Source: CNBC

Categories: Tesla

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54 Comments on "Tesla A Future Trillion Dollar Company?"

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Get Real

Absolutely.

They are out-innovating and seriously disrupting the global auto industry and expanding auto battery and energy storage industry and DCFC and high-end solar.

Tesla is expanding and the laggard, legacy auto OEMs are being impacted.

Another Euro point of view

Indeed !
And little known outside of the rather closed community of the certified accountants and auditors is that the IFRS commission (International Financial Reporting Standards) is currently working on a new accounting principle whereas as from 2019 and only for Silicon valley tech companies, losses will be reported as profits and vice versa. This new accounting principle already successfully passed through all necessary committee but is apparently stuck at last acceptance stage due to fierce lobbying. Very active in this lobbying effort would be a company named “Apple Inc. ” Go figure.

/s

๐Ÿ˜›

Benz

“$1 trillion company in revenue by 2030.”

Absolutely

AzzyLand

We will see if Tesla can survive by that.

God/Bacardi

All automakers other than Ford have gone bankrupt and not only survived, often they thrive…

AzzyLand

Ford? lol

Will

Lol. So they going to have more revenue then Boeing. I donโ€™t think so

deine Mutter

The dollar will lose a lot of value once oil isnโ€™t all that important anymore so it might be possible that Tesla become a trillion dollar company.

Lawrence

Oil decline causing a large decline of the dollar. So absurd I donโ€™t know where to begin.

deine Mutter

Of course. The only reason the dollar has international value is because it is the only currency that can be used to settle a international oil purchase.

Another Euro point of view

Didn’t I read recently that the European community will set up a special legal entity for the sole purpose to allow international corporations to by pass US sanction by allowing barter ? Using this system Iran would pay its business partners with oil, without using USD and therefor making it very difficult for US DOJ to trace this trade an fining $ billions as it has done repeatedly in the past.

Will

Why not? Iran didnโ€™t do anything. Iโ€™m more skeptic on the terrorist Saudis then the Iranians

AzzyLand

topkek

Blablubb

Not sure I agree with the statement, but for sure hyperinflation would be the only way Tesla will pose 1tn in revenue any time soon. For all Tesla fanboys, that does not mean that Tesla will not be successful, so keep calm …

scott

Oil was ridiculously cheap until Trump, and the dollar was very strong.

TeslaPlease

Oil permeates “pun intended” so many aspects of your life and will continue to do so for decades to come. Oil is critical to commercial-level activities that keep you warm and put food on your table.

Where do you think the energy comes from to power the Tesla factories. PLEASE WAKE UP FROM YOUR FANTASY.

G2

Obviously, you don’t know how “power” is made then.

Get Real

He is another serial anti-Tesla poster in desperate denial of the Tesla led rEVolution and the concurrent REvolution.

Taylor Marks

A $60B Tesla only is worth ~$345 per share… he only expects 16% growth over the next 3 years? Why even be in TSLA if you expect performance to be so poor?

I’m expecting it to exceed $400 within a month.

Some Guy

As evident from the article, with “trillon dollar” being the turnover in 2030, 60 billion would be the expected turnover in 3 years, which is a 5-fold increase over 2017. Seems doable to me with continuing ramp-up.

Rolando

The $60B is revenue in 3 years as is the $1T in 2030 — not the market capitalization of TSLA shares !

Blablubb

Just for comparison, the US car market it worth roughly 700bn. The largest manufacturer VW has 250bn in revenue. Walmart has roughly 500bn in revenue today. Sorry, even a valuation of 1 tn is unrealistic. So far only Apple has achieved this, with margins that are in a completely different category than any car manufacturer. You can decide how likely this statement is, I would for sure take him up on his 50:50 bet.

AJ

He said only $500 Billion in the Auto business. another 500 bil comes from Energy storage. Also remember the world population is growing and is expected to continue growing over the next decade. And I wouldn’t be surprised if they acquire the boring company in 5 years (sustainable transportation). Don’t forget that by 2030 supercharging revenue will be significant.

Ron M

Yeah and the world population needs birth control pills, vasectomy’s and tubes tied. Controlling climate change should include slowing or reversing population growth. Many poor countries have no access to these services let alone money to pay for them.

Will

They canโ€™t get thier solar roof and battery storage business off the ground

earl colby pottinger

Wow, a year plus ago it was they can get the car business going, now they can’t get the battery business going even while we see them win more contracts right now.

Also Panasonic says they are ready to increase battery production by the end of the year.

Some Guy

And why would Tesla only sell vehicles in the US and not export?
VW sells cars at an average price of 25 k$, Tesla is a wee bit higher (I estimate by a factor of 3 at the moment)
Total US vehicle market is about 20% of world market in vehicle numbers.
Don’t know about value, but the market is growing in Asia (and someday also in Africa), and so total numbers go up as well, at least for a while until the fully self driving taxis take over.

Bla blubb

It was just for comparison. People use big numbers these days, but donโ€™t really know what it means. Also If Teslas average prices wonโ€™t come down they wonโ€™t have access to the majority of the market.

Will

I agree. Wages and inflation havenโ€™t increase in the last 10 years

Windbourne

Rob barron is one of the bright one.

Will

No like one of stupids. Like that lady that said Tesla stock was going to be worth $4k in 2030. Yealp not investing in Murat always fund. More like snake oil salesmen

Ron M

Tesla needs Tencent to talk to China officials about rolling back the tariffs on Tesla to 15% which they were going to do before Trump opened his mouth.
I mean Apple isn’t being hit with tariffs on there products from China Trump gave them an exemption so it wouldn’t be unprecedented that China does the same. Especially since Tesla is in the process of building a factory in China.

AzzyLand

Maybe Elon Musk should let Tencent to buy Tesla, so he will be able to focus on making a good car instead of worrying about money.

Will

Nope. Trump would want the factory be built here in the US

Rolando

The China import tariff is 15% for all other countries and 40% for ‘made in USA cars’ , this as retaliation against Trump induced import tariffs for made in China products. The 40% is also hitting BMW which produces in USA and not only Tesla.
So the only way around 40% China tariffs is to build a China factory, which requires $2B for a start and takes 2 years before first cars can roll out.

Ron M

Trump gave Apple a pass on tariffs built in China

Alex

That’s just insane and in my opinion and a bit silly. Not with just cars and batteries and not with 10 million cars – that’s Toyota or VW and they are not even close to 500 billions. They would have to sell all the cars in the world.
EVs are not making the market grow, just a shift in “fuel”.
Batteries could make Tesla insanely rich, if they had tech that nobody else have – but that’s not the case.

Some Guy

And if the fuel shifts from oil to electricity, who will sell the most? A newcomer that makes compliance EVs with stealerships that do not want to sell them, or a company that never made ICE, has a cool image and awesome product?
If they can ramp production fast enough, they will hit the target eventually. In three years, GF3 in Shanghai will be up and running, supplying the Chinese market, wholly owned by Tesla, while everyone else is stuck in JV contracts.

Alex

That was never the case in auto industry, there are like more than 10 big players, EVs is so far making the number of players even bigger – Tesla has born, some more in China, Byton might take off, … So far we have to see someone going bankrupt.

Tesla is achieving good results, but it’s funny how for some it seems they just have to keep building more and more and more cars that someone will buy them – it’s not like that and they can’t live much longer without profits.

Will

If the shift to electric happens then dealers will have no choice to sell EVs unless they want to go out of business

Yves Laurin

You have shorts that are saying stock will go down and then you have investers like Baron that say the opposite because both party have a lot to gain from it. Personnaly, I believe it will be somewhere in between

Alex

I can only agree, positions about Tesla are very extreme, some think every stuff they do is gold, others think they’ll be bankrupt tomorrow. I’m with you, the truth must be somewhere in the middle.

Will

Yelp. I see them being $300B company in 2030 buying off Ford and AMD as thier major acquisitions

Benz

On the road to $1 trillion in 2030.

Q3 deliveries totaled 83,500 vehicles (55,840 Model 3, 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X).

After 3 quarters in 2018:
Tesla Model S: 11,740 + 10,940 + 14,470 = 37,150
Tesla Model X: 10,075 + 11,379 + 13,190 = 34,644
Tesla Model 3: 8,182 + 18,449 + 55,840 = 82,471
Total EV deliveries after 3 quarters = 154,265

1/4 million EV deliveries in 2018 sure is a possibility.
1/2 million EV deliveries in 2019 sure is a possibility.

As from 2020 onwards things will start to accelerate at a different pace.

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Dam

Zimbabwe $

LOL

Will

Lol ๐Ÿ˜‚ ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚ so true

USA in China
Count me among those hoping to retire early from Tesla stock gains over the next decade+. Right now Tesla has the technology and economies of scale lead over other car companies. They are able to produce superior EV’s at a profit while other companies lose money on their EV’s. Assuming they can keep this advantage, look for other car companies to be producing long range $35,000 EV’s 3-5 years from now, around the same time Tesla will be coming out with a $25,000 EV (in 3 years Elon time, 5 years normal time), 5 years after this (2028), other companies will be producing $25,000 EV’s while Tesla will be introducing a $15,000 EV, which is a price for budget car buyers allowing for 90+% EV market penetration. Assuming Tesla keeps their tech lead (admittedly a big assumption), I wouldn’t be surprised if they produce nearly 50% of the world’s cars by the early 2030’s. 50 million cars per year at $2000 profit per car is $100B profit per year, supporting at $1-2 trillion market cap. And I haven’t even mentioned solar+battery storage. However what concerns me about battery storage is why is it still so expensive ($500/kwh) while battery pack… Read more »
Alex

I think it’s about scale, reliability and life span.
A mobile phone must last for 3 years and reliability is not paramount, a car for 12 years and reliability is very important, energy projects are probably for a life of 20 or more years and reliability must be very good.
Smartphones sell 1 billion per year, cars 100 millions, static battery packs maybe 1 million.

Will

๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚. You donโ€™t think some companies will merge or others will get hip in the EV game. Talking about being delusional

G2

Tesla will probably add Ford and FCA factories into their ecosystem in the next ten years bringing another 8.2M cars per year capacity to their line up.

Re-Volted

I could see acquiring another BEV startup to eliminate competition and gain usable plants but why would they want antiquated ICE plants?

Will

Nope. If you are not tech or service sector then no

Scott

I misread it as $1 trillion market cap. Which I think is possible. But $1 trillion is REVENUE By 2030 is nuts.

Will

I got a bridge in Alaska to sell you