Tesla Stock Quickly Approaching All-Time High

9 months ago by Steven Loveday 43

Tesla stock is on a consistent upswing as the automaker is preparing to begin test production of its Model 3 on February 22.

Tesla stock is on a consistent upswing as the automaker is preparing to begin test production of its Model 3 on February 20.

The Tesla Gigafactory is seeing substantial growth and has initiated the production of the new 2170 battery cells.

The Tesla Gigafactory is seeing substantial growth and has initiated the production of the new 2170 battery cells for use in the Model 3.

Back in September of 2014, Tesla stock hit an all-time high of $291.42.

This week, it peaked at $287.39, and closed at about $280 yesterday (Feb 15th). The company is expected to begin pilot production of its anticipated Model 3 days ahead of the release 2016 fourth-quarter earnings on February 22.

According to Wall Street, the company will likely report some $2.2 billion in revenue, which is up 83% from the prior year.

The stock is up 58% since December, and investors are speculating as to what is the cause of this monumental upswing. A Reddit poster posed the question: “Why is Tesla stock at an all-time high?”. You can follow the link and see the multitude of responses below.

Why is the TSLA stock at an all time high? from teslamotors

The most obvious reason for the surge can be traced to the company’s recent indications that the long-awaited Model 3 may surprisingly arrive on schedule. The automaker is set to shut down its Fremont factory for a week to prepare for the production of pilot vehicles.

Added to this, the Tesla Gigafactory is continuing to grow exponentially, and Tesla announced that Model 3 motors and powertrain will be built at the facility. The Gigafactory is already underway producing the new 2170 battery cells for use in the Model 3. CEO Elon Musk invited investors to tour the factory, to see firsthand the company’s progress and commitment. Tesla chose this option in lieu of presenting at CES in Las Vegas, which fell in the same timeline.

While Musk has drawn some negativity over his positive relationship with President Trump and the new administration, the fact that he is on the Manufacturing Council and Strategic and Policy Forum, could be helping as well. Being that Tesla’s vehicles are primarily American-made, and that Tesla is creating a growing number of U.S. jobs, many anticipate that the company may fare well under the new administration.

Tesla now has a market cap of $43 billion, which is 88% of Ford’s $49 billion. Investors are giving the company a heads up as growth continues to move forward.

Source: Teslarati

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43 responses to "Tesla Stock Quickly Approaching All-Time High"

  1. ffbj says:

    Probably time to sell short.

    1. no comment says:

      i was thinking much the same. how many times have we seen this movie before? i personally got burned big time in the last tech bubble.

      1. ffbj says:

        Well, it’s just when I think a stock is overvalued and hitting near all time highs, I will either sell it or sell it short.
        I would not equate it with the tech bubble.

  2. Kdawg says:

    Not related to the stock information, just wanted to say I like the black on black Tesla pic, and would like to see it in matte black. 🙂

    In regards to the stock, I toyed w/buy some when it dropped to $150/share, but never did. Doh! The earnings report on the 22nd will probably be interesting to the bean-counters, but I mostly want to know where we are at w/the Model 3.

    1. Boris says:

      I toyed with the idea at $150, then at $180, I was hoping it would go down to $150 but ended up buying at $215. I am long, so I guess it doesn’t matter that much. Tesla will either make it big or Google will pick it up for peanuts.

      1. Kdawg says:

        Another reason I didn’t buy was that it doesn’t pay a dividend. Dividends at least give me some peace of mind when the stock is doing this: /\/\/\/\/\

        1. no comment says:

          if you’re looking for a dividend, then you want a stable stock, like ibm. but don’t expect fast appreciation in the value of the stock. growth stocks almost never pay dividends.

        2. realistic says:

          Good for you. Most “growth” funds didn’t do as well as a typical Dogs of the Dow type of portfolio. Even the Motley Fool version of the D-o-D did about 3% better than the general indices (and tha’s not including dividend gains).

          The typical stories of great stock picks are once/twice-in-a-lifetime events. Even Buffett’s storied results are fairly flaccid when you remove the plays he was able to make as a supranormal investor with huge leverage (i.e., “special classes of shares” as with his rail investments).

        3. ffbj says:

          It’s well known that growth stocks don’t pay dividends. Apple, Microsoft for years did not pay one. Pretty basic stuff. My advice buy some BMY or T if you want a stable dividend.

          1. Kdawg says:

            I already own plenty of stocks w/dividends. And I usually just let them DRIP away.

            1. ffbj says:

              Yeah, that’s a good strategy. Specifically for you a ‘Dogs of the Dow’ approach would probably be good.

  3. Alaa says:

    Every one seem to forget that Tesla is not a car company. It is a technology company that sells computers on wheels that are updated over the air, and sells energy storage and production.

    Ford etc are no where near Tesla.

    1. Tom says:

      You are correct. They are nothing alike. Ford makes profit consistently. Tesla is a great company and a horrible stock.

      1. Nix says:

        You mean like when Ford mortgaged off their factories and IP to raise $23.5 Billion dollars?

        Or when Ford Credit had to get $15.9 Billion from the Fed Bank as a bailout to maintain liquidity?

        Or when they borrowed $5.9 Billion in ATVM loans?

        Or when they had to sell off multiple entire lines of cars to stay afloat?

        Maybe you are talking about when Alan Mulally had to be brought in to bring Ford back from the brink of bankruptcy?

        How about the time Ronald Reagan saved Ford from Bankruptcy by invalidating the recall on 23 million defective transmissions that needed replaced? Giving consumers a sticker for their dash saying that the transmission could cause death, instead of actually replacing the faulty transmission?

        Is that the same Ford you are talking about?

    2. no comment says:

      an unfocused “technology company” is almost surely doomed to fail. indeed, one of the problems facing tesla is that it is involved with too many technologies, and all of them require large amounts of cash to fuel growth.

    3. realistic says:

      “computers on wheels that are updated over the air”

      They’re still cars — with huge warranty overhang, massive inventories, burdensome regulatory costs, unmatched capital requirements…. etc. Tesla’s filings relect all this clearly, with metrics that, even viewed proportionate to their size, are mostly worse than their automotive peers.

      The growth story is the WHOLE story, with really no financial underpinnings. Having said that, skeptics should tread cautiously with contrary bets. The vague “more than just a car company” mantra has sold very well. It gives the business an extraordinary margin of forgiveness, and permits the company to raise money almost without bound. Mind you Tesla does not MAKE money, they RAISE money, and will for years to come.

  4. Ron M says:

    Well I think the Model 3 is getting a lot of the attention I think the batteries are gonna be as big a revenue source as cars in a couple years. The new solar roof will probably start manufacturing by July and I have confidence that it’s going to be a hit. I wouldn’t be surprised if once it’s ready many new homes will be built with them installed. This would be the trificta.

  5. Assaf says:

    Sorry, but the only recent change/news that correlates with this TSLA stock surge, is the sticky/icky (IMHO) bromance between Musk and Trump.

    Nothing else has changed much Tesla-wise in recent months. If anything, then the Model S has narrowly and disappointingly lost the global 2016 sales crown to the (almost) last gasp of Gen 1 Nissan Leaf, and there has been increasing analysis from multiple sources indicating that Model 3 timelines will slip just like its predecessors had, with graver consequences now that alternatives to a Tesla *do* exist.

    So it’s all Trump-friendly speculator money, the same money that started bubbling up the overall exchange the day after the election. With Tesla in particular, since a good chunk of those investors have been Tesla-skeptic, the bromance warms them up to TSLA.

    Even though long-term TSLA has a good chance of being an INTC/MSFT type stock of the coming generation, so an increase of several orders of magnitude over the coming 20 years is not out of the question, in terms of intra-year timing I don’t think it’s a good price point for buying it.

    Disclaimer: I’m really not a stock maven, and have always been too slow to buy any TSLA myself 😉 But I can tease apart real economic reasons for a stock surge/fall, vs. purely speculative reasons. That one’s not hard.

    1. GeorgeS says:

      Assaf,
      If i wasn’t so sick of politics i would respond to your post;)

      1. Kdawg says:

        I think we are all politsick.

      2. ffbj says:

        Running like a fine-tuned machine? So was the Tin Man at one point. He didn’t have a heart either, though he wanted one.

    2. realistic says:

      NO axe to grind here; just a different POV.

      First: I think there’s less an issue about a “relationship” with the new Prez as there is a more rational understanding. The pre-election shouting had Musk skeptics saying Trump would “end the subsidies” (whatever that means) and Musk supporters declaring the ascendance of a global oil hegemony. Though uneducated views, they were loud and consistent. Then there was an election and reality emerged. On seeing some pragmatism on both sides (e.g., Trump wanting “American jobs” and Musk accepting the Tillerson SecState selection) the irrational fears about TSLA subsided. Plus there’s simply the market uplift from the conclusion of election process, which would have happened regardless of the victor, IMO.

      Second: Tesla had no end of optimistic projections to aid this uplift: roof tiles, the imminence of the Autonomous Tesla Model S3X, a new lower 0-60 value asymptotically approaching unbeatable, etc., and no bad news. Now add all that to a very high short float against 70-80% institutional and insider holdings. How could it not go up?

      Finally: Nobody is going to understand the combined SCTY/TSLA filing to be released on 22 Feb. Nobody produced useful pro forma versions of financial statements for the merged companies. Earnings/(loss) will have zero connection to prior metrics and we’ll set a whole new foundation of expectations, so barring something wildly disappointing this won’t matter at all. We’ll be able to plow through the balance sheet to get to cash and cash equivalents, and look at cash flow to recognize how long that should last. Right now the majority opinion seems to be that there isn’t need for an imminent raise. (I don’t share that view but nobody asks me.)

      … and FWIW, I said this on 14 Feb in reply to a cranky short-seller comment, when the stock was still solidly in the 283-284 range early afternoon:
      “Short-selling near the stock’s high is exactly where you WANT to trade, not at a low.
      I don’t trade big in TSLA anymore but 280+ is tough to ignore with many, many new data points coming at the Q4/FY’16 call.”

      That’s one of those lucky prognostications that make you look smart, so I’ll just gloat about that for a few minutes longer… OK, I’m done.

      1. Assaf says:

        Thank you for the interesting insight.

        Stock price aside, for the coming 2 years, Tesla’s fortunes will be tied mostly to Model 3 rollout: timing, price, ramp-up, initial driver reaction, etc.

        News on Model 3 have been neutral to negative over the past couple of months, especially the thus-far successful rollout of the Chevy Bolt.

        I’m not saying Tesla cannot sweep the stage with M3. Just pointing out, again, that there’s not tech/progress reason for TSLA to surge right now.

        Autonomous driving (the hype around that is super ridiculous, and I’m saying it as someone who teaches machine learning) takes a very far back seat to M3, and given justifiable regulatory concerns, is at least a half-decade into the future.

        1. Nix says:

          TSLA share prices have been forward-looking since the point before the first Model S launch when it seemed likely that the launch would actually happen.

          TSLA share prices will continue to be heavily influenced by forward-looking predictions, even as the Model 3 is launched. Before the launch of the Model 3 is even done, the valuation will shift to baking in the future success of the Model Y, next gen Roadster, and to a lesser extend the future Tesla Pickup.

          After the TM3 launch, we will probably hear a lot of old school ICE car company stock valuation talk, saying that the TM3 launch didn’t justify TSLA stock valuations. Their numbers will be based upon backward-looking analysis that won’t account for future products.

          The TM3 launch will give Tesla massive exposure outside of our EV bubble. This will likely draw in more old school stock investors who don’t understand how TSLA has been valued, and will want to value TSLA like it was Ford. They will get burned. They will whine and complain loudly, because of course they believe they know everything and it can’t be their fault they got burned.

          TSLA financial stories will all start with 100-deep line of burnt investors who got it wrong, all in line to attack Tesla for their losses.

          1. realistic says:

            The core concept of share valuation is the net present value of future cash flows. All stock values are presumably based on some notional earnings projection that can be resolved into cash flow, discounted to current value. It’s all a matter of (1) how much will be earned, (2) when will it happen, and (3) does the expressed projection look rational. The valuation thesis doesn’t depend on Ford or any other car company as a model.

            Of course the thesis needs to make sense. Not really a future-y view vs. the geezer outlook at all.

  6. Nix says:

    TSLA is a growth volatile stock. It will go up, it will go down — and much of the time with little to do with actual current events.

    Part of that is the tug-of-war between investors trying to get in before they become another Apple or Amazon, and they are valuing it based on that type of growth. On the other side are investors who are used to pricing slow growth car manufacturing companies that have historically fought to be profitable (sometimes failing, needing various gov’t supports from tariffs to bailouts).

    Part of the volatility is that shorters make profits off of volatility, and their massive intrusion into TSLA shares itself increases the volatility. approx. 1 out of every 4 TSLA shares are currently being shorted. This level of market intrusion is big enough to cause volatility due to the action of shorting itself.

  7. GeorgeS says:

    All i can say is you guys that own the stock should be glad that i never bot any. If i had the stock would have tanked:)

    1. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

      LOL, thanks for the honesty.
      😛

      1. Kdawg says:

        George, you would have made the shorters happy. 😀

        1. georgeS says:

          kdawg,
          I’ve always said: Watch what I do and do the opposite. You will win every time.

          Everyone needs to be in the market to some extent. I was for years. I’m 68 now and retired. I don’t want to have to worry about it all the time.

          You aren’t an experienced investor until you have lived thru a gut wrenching crash.

          A buddy of mine’s wife lost all of their savings in the last big crash.

          When Glen came home from work she was in the garage with the garage door closed and the engine running in her old Mustang. He got her out too late.

          Then add that to the fact her teachers pension had only her as a beneficiary.

          1. Kdawg says:

            That’s a sad story. I try to tell myself it’s only money. 2008/2009/2010 were not fun times. Not only for retirees, but those of us that still had jobs, who were doing the work of 3 people due to job cuts, and getting paid much less due to salary cuts and furloughs.

            I don’t know if Social Security will exist when I can collect, but I don’t budget for it. I have my conservatively invested money, and then some money I take more risks with. Even w/that money, I wasn’t ready to buy Tesla stock (or really any auto stock for that matter).

            1. Mister G says:

              Social security will be around for you as long as Americans do not allow wall Street to control it and we raise the salary cap. Can you imagine if social security would’ve been privatized in 2006 as the Republicans wanted, old people would be eating cat food in 2009.

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “…you guys that own the stock should be glad that i never bot any. If i had the stock would have tanked”

      LOL! Me too.

      I was a heavy contributor to TheEEStory forum back when it was active. That had a lot of investor interest, so much that altho I never invest in stocks, just for fun I’d occasionally try to predict when it would be time to buy or sell the stock in question. My batting average was not quite a perfect zero; there was one time when the opportunity to invest was so obvious that even *I* managed to make the right pick! 😉

  8. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

    IMHO, I think the entire market stock valuations are all bloated with air.
    I predict a “Correction” will come and slap everyone silly.

    1. Boris says:

      I predict the end of the World (at some point), when it comes, it will definitely slap everyone silly.

  9. Ron M says:

    Tesla is down today because of UAW I think workers need to remember it was in 2010 that the GM-Toyota plant closed and it’s workers were out of a job.
    I’ve worked for a union before Pullman Standard and the leaders recommended we strike I voted against striking and I never talked to anyone who voted for the strike. However the leaders said we were going on strike so we couldn’t go to work or collect unemployment. In less than 6 months a train builder was out of business

    1. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

      They’re like a toxic virus. They’ll kill their host.

      Those manufacturers should move their builds to a right to work state.
      Maybe that’s one reason they selected Nevada for the Gigfactory?
      http://www.nrtw.org/right-to-work-states-nevada

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        I think there is little doubt that one of the reasons Nevada was chosen was that, yes, it’s a “right-to-work” State, which if course is a euphemism for an anti-union State.

        As I recall, the other leading contenders were Texas and Arizona. There were no pro-union States in the running, unless you consider the last-minute bid by California as a serious contender… and I don’t.

    2. Nix says:

      Ron, I think you might have 2 stories crossed. Tesla recently announced that they would do a 1 week shutdown to configure Paint for the Model 3, and then begin Model 3 “pilot production” or “test builds” on the assembly line starting around the 20th of this month.

      In another story, they are facing a UAW union organization campaign.

      I don’t believe there is a shutdown because of the UAW, unless you have a source for that?

  10. realistic says:

    For those arguing “hey, it’s just volatile” (such as Nix): although the Beta for TSLA is deceptively low, here’s evidence of your correct perspective from an astute European observer.

    http://imgur.com/a/vc5VB
    (rolling average price and share issuances also shown)

    He’s a huge TSLA skeptic, BTW, but like any good cold-blooded capitalist plays the issue both ways. He was advising to close short positions back in October and buy cheap out-of-the-money calls expiring in the Spring. He has called both of the last two waves with uncanny accuracy.

    Of course, I considered myself far smarter and ignored his projections. So I’m posting here from my home office instead of my villa balcony…

  11. JP says:

    Tesla is likely to be the transformative company of the century. It’s changing transportation, energy use, energy storage, and energy generation, (i.e. capture). Sure there may be short term pullbacks from here, but over the years it’s going much higher. Buy on the dips, always keep a core position, and try and sell some trading shares at temporary peaks and buy them back on the temporary dips. That’s what I’ve been doing since the mid $20’s. The last run from $280 to $140 was probably a once in a lifetime gift, but there is plenty of long term upside from here.

    1. Mister G says:

      The best thing to do if you want to help TSLA, is buy/lease a Tesla vehicle today.

    2. Get Real says:

      You nailed it JP!

      There is simply MASSIVE growth potential in Tesla that is completely lacking in the other laggard auto OEMs.

      More evidence that despite the shills, shorters, and haters that Tesla and compelling EVs are really set up for near-term, past the knee S curve growth past the early adopter stage:

      http://insideevs.com/battery-prices-expected-to-be-under-100-per-kwh-by-2020-less-than-80-per-kwh-shortly-after/