Tesla Reports Q3 Sales of 11,580 – Meeting Expectations

OCT 2 2015 BY JAY COLE 50

Tesla Announces Global Q3 Sales Estimate

Tesla Announces Global Q3 Sales Estimate

As per Tesla Motors’  reporting protocol, the company announced its early estimate for third quarter worldwide deliveries of the Model S, and now the Model X – which launched on September 29th (watch launch/first delivery ceremony here).

For the July to September sales period, Tesla reported sales of 11,580.

Q3 Sales Where Aided With The Delivery Of The First 6 Model X SUVs (via DR TV)

Q3 Sales Where Slightly Aided With The Delivery Of The First 6 Model X SUVs (via DR TV)

Tesla comment on the quarter:

“This (Q3 sales) includes our first deliveries of Model X. Although we had one week of planned production shutdown, this delivery level represents a 49% increase over Q3 last year as well as the sixth consecutive quarter of growth.

There may be small changes to this delivery count (usually well under 1%), as Tesla only counts a delivery if it is transferred to the end customer and all paperwork is correct.”

Last quarter the early estimate was only off by 16 copies once the count was made official. So for all intents and purposes, this is the number of EVs sold.

Entering the quarter, Tesla had estimated electric vehicles sold for the period to be in line with the 11,532 reported sold during the previous/2nd quarter, so this result is in line with that guidance.

Earlier this summer, Tesla re-stated delivery estimates somewhat, moving the expectation from 55,000 even, to 50,000-55,000.

With today’s data at hand, we can now put a number on the job that is ahead of the company when it comes to sales for the remainder of the year.

  • Q1 – 10,045
  • Q2 – 11,532
  • Q3 – 11,580

Which makes a total of 33,157 EVs sold though September 30th – leaving another 16,843 to be sold in the last 3 months of the year to hit the low end of the guidance.

Here is hoping that they are up to the job!

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50 Comments on "Tesla Reports Q3 Sales of 11,580 – Meeting Expectations"

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Is it time to short TSLA?

Tesla shorts? I can’t think of anything I’d rather see you put your whole portfolio into.

Because you’re a troll and I hate you.

Tesla “gear” includes t-shirts, baseball hats, and jackets. Are there shorts, too? 😉

http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0001/5660/products/Mens_Designed_in_CA_Tee_1024x1024.jpg?v=1418191348

Shouldn’t the title be “Meeting previously lowered expectations”

You an always meet expectations if you lower the target. :]

I look at it like they are getting more EVs out there than most other car makers combined but yes, you are right.

LOL, “Lowered Expectations” reminds me of this bit from Mad TV

I liked it when he would touch the barbed wire, and pull back. Dude it is barbed wire. He is so in a love fog he puts his hand on it like its some fence rail as they walk along a country lane in rural England. Love conquers all.

17,000 units in 13 weeks is 1,300 cars per week. I’m guessing 1,200 Model S and 100 Model X units per week.

49% year over year growth is crazy amazing growth in any business! Most companies grow in single digits and consider breaking into double digits a big deal.

49% year-on-year growth! Glad to see Tesla is continuing to deliver on its promises.

GO TESLA!

Mr. Cheerleader,

Why are you (and Tesla) focusing on the year-over-year growth when the quarterly sequential growth was just 0.6%, and deliveries were less than 10% higher than they were in Q4 of 2014? Seeing as Model S sales are no longer growing, why do you (and Tesla) think it’s relevant to highlight a comparison to what– from a business evaluation standpoint– is essentially ancient history?

Shouldn’t we compare Q4 to Q4?

Mark is short, and may still be a bit cranky about the VW kerfuffle.

Because car purchasing is seasonal, you use YoY and not quarter-to-quarter. You have to look at how the industry actually works, not how you want it to.

In fact, the primary seasonality in car purchasing is that there’s low demand in December, January and February. Spring and fall are the busiest quarters and summer is almost the same. In what should be Tesla’s slowest quarter (Q1, encompassing January, February & March) sales this year were 10,045 cars, and sales now are only running around 15% higher than that. Meanwhile Q2 and Q3 show very little seasonal variance (maybe it’s SLIGHTLY slower in the summer), and yet Q3 sales were only roughly +0.6% vs. Q2. It’s obvious that the year-over-year comparison is invalid because– unlike a year ago– Tesla now has no backlog and has almost reached geographic saturation (at least in terms of places it can sell a substantial number of $100,000 electric cars). In other words, the company (and the cheerleaders here) are using a “layup comparison” rather than one that shows what’s really happening NOW. Did anyone catch Musk’s Tweet last night that there won’t be a smaller battery variant of the X for another year or so? That means the cheapest X available will start at at least $94,200 (the price of the S90D + $5000), and that’s assuming the price isn’t higher because… Read more »

Sorry, one correction: there’s no Model S backlog now vs. a year ago, so I’m talking about a flatline in Model S demand. Obviously there’s the X backlog, although it will be interesting to see what happens to it with a sticker price starting in the mid-$90,000s while, for instance, the new Volvo XC-90 T8 plug-in is almost $30,000 cheaper, far more practical, and almost as fast (0-60 in the high 5s).

Silly.

You cite Musk, and claim completly illogical conclusion.

Bigger battery pack mean huge demand. If demand would be low Tesla would push smaler/cheaper.

So again why Tesla wont get good sales out of X?

Mark B. Spiegel said:

“It’s obvious that the year-over-year comparison is invalid because– unlike a year ago– Tesla now has no backlog and has almost reached geographic saturation…”

Don’t you Tesla bashers get tired of repeating the same Chicken Little, sky-is-falling predictions in every post? I’ve seen thousands of such on Seeking Alpha, before I got tired of reading the same ol’ same ol’ every day.

If you must bash Tesla, at least try to come up with some original material. Your assertions here are pretty stale.

And here’s a graph of what you’re falsely describing as “ancient history”:

Great news. It’s 49% higher YOY with w/o the benefit of a current backlog. And there is a report that orders increased for the S, after the six Model S founder series deliveries. oh, wait – you were saying that’s bad…please continue.

Mark B. Spiegel said:

“Why are you (and Tesla) focusing on the year-over-year growth when the quarterly sequential growth was just 0.6%…”

Because, as others have already pointed out, car sales are highly seasonal, so only year-on-year sales comparisons offer a worthy comparison.

Because for any company to grow at close to 50% per year, and continue that for several years in a row, is truly remarkable.

“Seeing as Model S sales are no longer growing…”

I’m sorry if you’re losing money shorting TSLA, but that doesn’t give you the right to come here and post out-and-out lies. And frankly, I’d think that any experienced investor would have figured out by now that shorting TSLA is probably going to lose you money. If you persist in doing that, then you have nobody to blame but yourself.

Put Q3 2015 on that bar graph and then decide if that’s the growth trajectory of a company that should sell for 11x revenue (on a fully diluted enterprise value basis) with double-digit negative operating margins.

(I don’t expect you to know what any of that means, but if there are any fundamental investors reading this, they will.)

So, basically you’re trolling here to influence investor spending?

God, you’re pathetic Mark. Please craw back into the dark, moist hole you crawled out of.

Mark. Personally, I could care less whether you are shorting TSLA or not. However if you are betting for or against the company you should, at least, be realistic about the company. Otherwise you are destined to lose your shirt one way or another. The company was a little flat this quarter but that is rarely an indication of long term demand or not. The factory was down for a week because of the cut power lines. The company was also preparing for the launch of the Model X which shut down or delayed lines even more. So the fact that they had a roughly equal production run in a quarter where the company had some issues come up is a good sign. The new production line is now up and while it might take time to get it to full production I would expect that deliveries will go up quickly. A year ago there was plenty of speculation that demand was soft and that was proven to be false. I’d say betting that demand was softening will continue to burn you for quite a while. I believe demand will continue to stay solid through the creation of the battery… Read more »

Hey, I saw you mentioned in an article about shorting Tesla. Sort of negative fame I suppose, but fame nonetheless. Does that make you infamous, not sure, just wondering?

You should have shorted VW, down 47% since September 18th.
Instead of coming up with reasons why Tesla should be shorted maybe you reexamine your personal bias. Most major analytical houses are long or hold on Tesla, though not all.

They must have done very well in markets like China, UK, Australia & Germany as numbers for other countries were mostly yet available & not good to quite bad (in Norway, usual second biggest market Tesla sold less that 150 cars in Sept). It could also be that InsideEv usually accurate estimation for NA was off by 1K cars.

Denmark is also a wild card right now due to expiring tax exemption. The number for September is not known yet.

Could indeed be, anyway it is likely that Q4 sales will be good. Denmark being one reason, the other could be Model X orders shifted to Model S by not so convinced customers. Model S can be delivered in 2015 in large numbers, not so the Model X.

All their reported sales/Delivery are actually lies. I have reported them to SEC with proof. such proof will be shared with public by Monday morning!

***mod edit (staff)***
Moving this comment to bottom of discussion as it ridiculous and distracting to the topic at hand – and its the user’s first post ever at IEV
***mod edit***

Uh . . . Ok, “Tesla Employee”, we’ll see what happens.

It says “All their reported sales/Delivery are actually lies”. Well that is a lie because I literally saw 6 Model X deliveries the other day. 🙂

Brave statement. Guess we will have to wait until Monday morning to see if you can really back this up…

And I have prove you left the toilet seat up Stanley!
There WILL be consequences WAY before Monday…

LOL! And your dad can beat up Elon Musk’s dad too, right?

Troll…

Hey Deepak,
Welcome to the board! That’s a pretty strong statement, if you are not joking. I hope, you have a new job lined up for you. Now going to sell some TSLA on this “inside info”.

Wow, how bad do you have to be at trolling when even the other trolls scoff at you? 8-0

Hey Deepak,

In case you intend to write a book once you are out I swear I will come all the way from Luxembourg to CA to have it signed by you 🙂

There could be some truth to what you say. I’ve been thinking, why I see 10 times more Leafs and Volts than Teslas here in California, even when Tesla’s sales are so much higher. If what you say is true, then I have an explanation.

Yup. What you see in your neighborhood must certainly be indicative of the globe.

i see teslas more than volts and slightly less than leafs here in Florida

Miami?

Otown. Saw one of each so far today (not including mine)

First time I ever saw a Tesla in the wild was in Tampa. I’ll be in Florida in December. It will be interesting to compare how much EV’s have grown since the last time I was there.

You will have to look at the total numbers of sold cars over the last years. It is 54600 Model Ses, 82295 Volts and 85933 Leafs. So if you don’t see about as many Leafs as you see Volts, don’t expect to get the ratio right on the Leafs:Tesla.

was just sayin (not even sure if you were replying to me though?)

Technically, we should compare only the US ( or California) sales, not worldwide total sales. When I went to Norway this summer, I saw a lot more Teslas, which I understand.
Anyway, this is not very scientific method. It depends a lot on the roads one drives.

Thanks for skipping all the little people like CNN and dropping this breaking news here…

Please let the IRS know to so they can get their 7500 tax credits back and throw the people who submitted then in jail….