Tesla Registers 5,000 New Model 3 VINs

MAY 10 2018 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 18

Tesla continues to register a significant amount of Model 3 VINs with the NHTSA.

This week Tesla has once again ramped up the VIN registration process for the Model 3. If production is truly headed where CEO Elon Musk is predicting, we should start seeing a plethora of these registrations or much bigger loads sooner rather than later.

Related: Tesla Model 3 Tracker Hits 20,000 Produced, 5,170 New VINs Registered

Last time we reported Model 3 VINs (linked above), about two weeks ago, Tesla had registered 5,170 new additions, with the highest number being 33,466. Just a few days ago, another report surfaced on Twitter showing 5,009 more registrations and a new top number of 39,263.

Teslarati pointed out that Twitter user Matthew Koloski retweeted the NHTSA figures and shared that through some research on the Tesla Motors subreddit, he’s discovered that none of these new VINs are for the upcoming dual-motor Model 3.

While VIN tracking is not a surefire way to pinpoint production, Bloomberg’s Model 3 Tracker has proven that over the long term it can be fairly successful. Though the tracker doesn’t account for shutdowns or sudden changes, it collects these reported VINs, as well as user-submitted VINs from the wild, and nails down production numbers relatively accurately.

More Information: Does New Tesla Model 3 Tracker Jibe With Our Sales Estimate?

Tom Randall, one of the creators of Bloomberg’s Model 3 tracker recently explained on Twitter:

As you can see, Bloomberg’s tracker currently shows 1,705 per week, which is down significantly from previous numbers that had approached 3,000.

Source: Teslarati, Tesla Model 3 Tracker

Categories: Tesla

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18 Comments on "Tesla Registers 5,000 New Model 3 VINs"

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Fantastic!

Cool, looks like Tesla is hitting it’s stride.

Bloomberg’s model does very well at long term trending (like over a full quarter), but even they state the weekly numbers won’t be all that accurate. They say they don’t think the downtime is distorting their numbers, but actually the distortion is very clearly visible. It shows up as a dip in the weekly production numbers in the weeks following the downtime at Tesla. Their overestimate for the week of the shutdown is showing up as lower production numbers in the weeks after the shutdown, when it was really the week of the shutdown where the dip in production actually happened.

Because of the week that their modeling didn’t account for the shutdown (and showed Tesla building 2000+ cars instead), the following weeks are artificially low compared with actual production in order to bring their modeling back into sync. If Bloomberg manually went in and zero’ed out the days we know the factory was shutdown, their weekly numbers wouldn’t have that trailing correction problem anymore.

“…the following weeks are artificially low compared with actual production in order to bring their modeling back into sync.”

I was rather shocked when I first read of Bloomberg deliberately low-balling their production estimate for certain weeks, in order to “make up for” over-estimation in previous weeks.

I submit that the adage “Two wrongs don’t make a right” doesn’t just apply to ethics — it also applies to production reports!

It is less of a production “report” and more of a production statistical regression analysis. They aren’t actually deliberately doing anything with any specific weekly number. In fact, they are trying to keep arms-length distance from any individual weekly numbers. Instead they are just creating mathematical models that churn out results for themselves without Bloomberg intervening.

Nothing is deliberate, it is all just the cold math not being able to handle outlier data very well, with it attempting to smooth the data. In this case, two wrongs do actually add up to a right in the long run. The mathematical model corrects itself over the long run by using low-ball numbers to even out for previous high numbers.

You just have to realize the limitations of the mathematical model, and not focus on the weekly numbers from Bloomberg. Their numbers are most accurate at estimating the quarterly total at the end of the quarter before Tesla announces quarterly sales numbers. It is good at that.

Yep, good analysis. The bloomberg model is flawed but is good for looking back on to see ebbs and flows or ramp of production over time. (Keeping in mind that it is not exact.)

It is not sufficient for real time estimates.

Volume AWD production isn’t until July. They will go through way more than 5K VIN’s between now and July.

There was another article about Tesla ramping up their supplier’s production for a higher weekly build rate…

Oh big deal, what a joke! After one year of production?

Yea, how dare Tesla ONLY rise to be the leader of the monthly sales leaderboard in the US after less than a year of production? /sarc

The Model 3 is currently selling double their next closest pure EV competitor in the US. If that makes Tesla a joke, what does it make all the other pure EV cars for sale in the US?

Tesla is doing really poor job! It’s nothing but an assembly plant! It does not make the components other than batteries!

Dan, you aren’t even good at keeping up with the trolling memes. You are supposed to attack Tesla for building TOO MANY of their own parts….

GO TESLA GO DESTROY DIRTY GAS GUZZLERS AND DIESELS LOL CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP FOLKS FYI we are now averaging 410 ppm of CO2 NOT GOOD BELIEVE ME

Still waiting for my VIN. Configured on 4/19

When did you make reservation and what’s your location? I reserved april 3rd 2016 and live in Florida and haven’t configured.

April 3rd? Then it’s like 200k-300k reservations ahead of you. Don’t expect to configure anytime soon.

Configured on 04/19 with a 3-6 week delivery. Still waiting for VIN as well