Tesla Registers 4,500 New Model 3 VINs: 100% Are New Mid Range Version

OCT 23 2018 BY MARK KANE 30

Thousands of new Mid Range Model 3 VINs registered

Tesla continues the high pace of registrations of VIN numbers for the Model 3 with the latest batch of 4,500 rear-wheel VINs. It’s anticipated that all of those are for new Mid Range Model 3 that is expected in 6-10 weeks.

So far, Tesla registered 156,129 VINs, including 38,221 in just 22 days of October, while in the entire third quarter it added 61,511.

Assuming more than 100,000 Model 3 produced, the advantage between VIN numbers and production is approximately 50,000. It seems reasonable that all those new RWD VINs are for the Mid Range, because the other two versions are AWD (the Long Range rear-wheel drive is not available any more..at the moment).

As it turns out, dual motor versions no longer outpace single motor versions, so the production ratio must be close to 50/50.

Tesla Model 3 VIN Registrations (cumulative) – October 22, 2018

Source: Teslarati

Categories: Tesla

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30 Comments on "Tesla Registers 4,500 New Model 3 VINs: 100% Are New Mid Range Version"

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The trickle would soon turn to a torrent.

I don’t think there is anything in the VIN that differentiates Mid and Long Range. There has been about 30K VIN registrations last 2 weeks (to include this batch of 4,500) and about 1/2 are RWD… roughly 15K vehicles. This is reversing a trend of AWD/P VIN’s. If LR is being discontinued, I am guessing many of the 15K new RWD VIN’s are for Mid Range.

Yeah, I was wondering how one could tell the difference between a Long Range and a Mid Range Model 3, just from the VIN.

But look at the wording in this article:

Assuming… It seems reasonable that all those new RWD VINs are for the Mid Range…

So, just an assumption on the part of the writer.

It would seem strange if they were making them after filling up their pre 2019 quota of full tax rebates only a couple of weeks ago.
They are definitely producing high value cars until the end of the year.

No reason to build the LEMUR unless they needed to, this should make them very busy in the weeks ahead, at least until Q1.EU should be open then.

Configurator says 5 – 10 weeks for mid-range variant… So they are definitely making them before the end of the year.

With more RWD models being produced, the production rate should go up as well, since it takes more time to produce an AWD version than the RED version. Pushing closer to the 6k weekly rate.

Depends what the bottleneck process is. If it’s not around fitting the additional motor then it won’t make the slightest difference.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Unless cells are a key bottleneck.

I thought the paint shop was the bottleneck.

There’s always going to be a bottleneck somewhere, as production continues to ramp up. Relieving one bottleneck merely makes some other point the new bottleneck.

There have been a lot of comments posted to IEVs over the last few days which assume there is an ongoing bottleneck with battery cell supply, but I haven’t seen any evidence for that. Panasonic has in the recent past had problems with their supply staying ahead of Tesla’s demand, but I think that has more to do with Tesla’s unpredictable surges in production, rather than any inability by Panasonic to increase supply.

Just my opinion, but I think Tesla abruptly introducing the Mid Range Model 3 has more to do with most of the domestic demand for the currently available versions of the Model 3 (that is, Long Range only, Premium Upgrade Package only) having been satisfied, rather than any potential bottleneck with battery cell supply.

Tesla bashers are trying to paint this as “falling demand” for the Model 3, but the reality is that demand is currently restricted by the restrictions Tesla has placed on orders. When some or all of those restrictions are removed, we’ll certainly see a surge in reservations being converted to orders.

Yoshio Ito, head of Panasonic’s automotive business, said in a new interview in Tokyo 26 Sept –

“The bottleneck for Model 3 production has been our batteries. They just want us to make as many as possible.”


That is not what he said.

Tesla IS cell constrained. Panasonic said so themselves a month or two ago, they actually said they were holding up production. They are fast-tracking new cell production lines now, which should be operational by the end of this quarter. Tesla is only able to produce about 4500 LR model3’s a week(on average) given the cell constraints at GF1.
The introduction of the mid-range model3 kills several birds with one stone. It allows Tesla to increase production of model3’s by 20% while they are cell constrained. It also pushes some base model3 reservation holders to pull the trigger and move them into a higher margin category. Some people who just want the long-range pack are also forced into a higher margin dual motor category.

So for Tesla, they can make 20% more model3’s right now and move a whole bunch of people into higher margin category’s. They can actually only do this because demand is off the charts!

But some who would buy RWD will downgrade to lower margin MR.

Also, upgrading from SR to MR doesn’t improve Q4 margins, it only moves 2019 sales into Q4 2018. You only pull demand forward when you’re demand limited.

If cells are the limit, putting fewer cells in the car lets you make more cars.

They are increasing production capacity and need to have demand for that. They get that demand by introducing the Model 3 Mid Range. Great idea. Same will happen next year when they increase production capacity more, they will introduce the Standard to generate demand.

So yes, it is a demand lever, but only because they are increasing production.

That’s not why they said. They said that there had been moments when Tesla was catching up to them and now would they make sure to always stay ahead of Tesla.

I want to see 4,5k European VIN registrations. It is almost November, for a January production start, which I’m hoping for, the configurator should soon open.

Demand is still too high in the US. I think they need to produce much more than 5000 per week and have 2-3 quarters of solid profitablity before they can send significant numbers to Europe. I hope it happens by summer of 2019.

Why would they need profitability before sending them overseas?…

Shipping Time Ties up Cash Flow?

They don’t, but I’d imagine that Tesla will be prioritizing US deliveries through the end of Q4, then will likely focus on EU at beginning of next quarter before switching back to US to finish out Q2 again.

They need to show profitability in Q4.

It’s too late to start building overseas models, most wouldn’t be delivered until Q1. They must build cars that contribute to Q4 revenue, profit and free cash flow. Q1 is next year’s problem.

Is it really that much less profitable to sell Tesla cars in Europe? Perhaps it is; that’s not a rhetorical question. I doubt the shipping charge is that significant, but the currency exchange rate might currently* be unfavorable to U.S.-made cars.

*The pun seems unavoidable here. 😉

Does this mean the average transaction price for Model 3 (and in turn, profit margin) is also decreasing? This does mean that Tesla Model 3 buyers are waiting for the less expensive models, and that’s where the bulk of the demand is, not the $60k cars.

Recently the average selling price of the Model 3 has gone up, with the introduction of the LR Dual Motor/AWD version. I don’t think it’s clear if introducing the Mid Range version will lower the average, since Tesla is phasing out the LR single-motor RWD at the same time.

In the United States only. What do you think the demand for AWD $60k midsize cars should be per month in the US?

I wish they make a Front wheel drive only!

Why? Front wheel drive only exists because it’s a cheaper package to make for an ICE manufacturer.