UPDATE: Tesla Pushes Back Standard Model 3 Deliveries To Late 2018, Early 2019

6 days ago by Eric Loveday 262

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3

Following today’s Q4 and 2017 results report, Tesla has updated its delivery timeline for the standard Model 3.

What was once promised to arrive in early 2018 is now expected by late 2018 or even as far off as early 2019 for reservation holders.

*UPDATE: Meanwhile, Canadian reservation holders report a moving forward of their timelines provided they opt for the long-range, more expensive version of the Model 3.

Tesla Model 3 Standard Delivery Pushed Back

It’s believed that Tesla is making this timeline change due to mounting losses, which it reports on the Model 3, too. If Tesla struggles to turn a profit on a ~$55,000 Model 3, then it surely can’t be expected to make money off the base $35,000 3. In its released, Tesla stated:

GAAP Automotive gross margin improved slightly compared to Q3 to 18.9%. Non-GAAP Automotive gross margin declined to13.8% in Q4, which was below our expectations. This is more than fully explained by the slower than expected ramp of Model 3.Since Model 3 production was in the early stages of the ramp, allocation of full operating costs and depreciation made its gross margin negative. We are expecting a negative Model 3 gross margin in Q1, while generating positive operating cash flows.

It appears as though Day 1 reservation holders are seeing the late 2018 timeline for the standard Model 3, whereas those who reserved on Day 2 are receiving the early 2019 notice.

It seems Tesla is prioritizing the pricier version and delaying what’s likely to be the money-losing standard Model 3, but that’s what some of us expected to happen all along.

Tags: , ,

262 responses to "UPDATE: Tesla Pushes Back Standard Model 3 Deliveries To Late 2018, Early 2019"

  1. David says:

    I’m done.
    Elon lied again. There is no and will not be a $35,000 Tesla.

    Time to find another car. This delay is too much too fast for me. Only sell $55,000 version and up. Elitist.

    My delivery date has been put off a year. That will be three years waiting for a car they will never make.

    I want to cancel now but will take a deep breath before I do.

    1. JyChevyVolt says:

      Don’t cancel. Hold on to your reservation and get another car.

      1. EV4me says:

        Great, more for us, also many people converted to AWD pushing orders out, I would not cal it a lie unless he never delivers. welcome to supply and demand.

        1. pjwood1 says:

          Yes, and demand-elasticity. Tesla is playing a game of micro-economics, by holding out for more Model 3 margins, per car, on lower than expected production.

          You can get to servicing your capital either way, but if you miss-predict how many people fold, how many “reservations” are $1,000 interest-free loans, or how many won’t stand for deliberate dash-board sabotage, than you might be putting yourself in a pickle.

      2. JimInAuburn says:

        You could keep the reservation and use it to buy one in about 5 years. Maybe they will sell them by then?

      3. Hans Hammermill says:

        That is what we did back when Tesla announced that the $35k m3 would come much later in the production run (our family car would not last that long).

        We bought a new BoltEV for about the price of a Camry (with state and federal incentives) and continue to be pleasantly surprised by it (the only down-side is the sub-par front seats). GM made a very good EV.

        We have not regretted that decision at all.

        It is really unfortunate that govt incentives will sunset before the affordable m3 will be on the market now.

        1. Mark Hathaway says:

          Completely agree. I did the same thing in November, decided to lease a Bolt even though I’d reserved the model 3 back on 3/31/16 after waiting in line for hours at a Bay Area Tesla store. I’ve always wanted a Tesla, but the Bolt is a fantastically engineered car. I get 180 miles of range at 75mph with steep inclines and hills on the freeways here. I thought I’d just put it in Turo when I eventually got the Model 3, but after actually driving the model 3 for a weekend using Turo, I’m cancelling my reservation or waiting for the model Y. The bolt is a better car for my situation. I love the Regen and 1 pedal driving, love the heated steering wheel, and I don’t want to live without Android Auto now after using it daily for the last 3 months. Model 3 is a fantastic car, but it’s not worth the money not the wait.

        2. snowdall says:

          Same logic I used. Lease on the Spark EV was going to be up soon, so had to replace it. Choose a 3 and gamble it will be delivered sometime reasonable. OR get the Bolt and have an EV NOW … along with the tax incentives. Needless to say we REALLY love our little blue fully loaded Bolt. 🙂

    2. SparkEV says:

      Great! Please cancel your reservation ASAP and ask others to cancel as well. Maybe I’ll have a shot at owning Tesla 3 before I die of old age. The way things are going, they are adding more reservations than deliveries.

      1. David says:

        If you want a Tesla fork over $140,000 for a ludicrous model s and you can get one soon. They have no intention of making an affordable car. Elon originally said the model s would be a more affordable $45,000. What ever happened to that.

        1. SparkEV says:

          I’d rather have the 3 than S. Even 3 is too big, but it seems that’s the smallest EV capable of using superchargers.

        2. Dan says:

          You can get the 75 kwh model S for about $75k plus tax and minus incentives. It still comes (for right now) with lifetime free supercharging (life of the car or until Tesla is reorganized in bankruptcy), is all wheel drive and PLENTY quick.

          If there ever is a $35k model 3 it will come after the tax credits are gone. Let the tax credits support the sale of premium models that bring in more money.

          1. SparkEV says:

            Read what I wrote. Tesla S is way too big. I might as well fix up my van if I’m going to be driving a yacht on regular basis.

            1. Steve says:

              M3 isn’t THAT much smaller than the S.

              1. Mark Hathaway says:

                Sure it is. The interior is slightly smaller, but the exterior is tremendously more company than the model s. The model s feels like driving a giant boat. Reminds me of my parents Lincoln Town car. The model 3 is about the size of a Honda Civic.

            2. Dan says:

              Too big for me too but a suprisingly (to me) good value relative to…….

      2. Steve says:

        Thats not how it works. The people cancelling will diminish the ‘need’ for Tesla to actually produce a 35k car.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Like fun.

          We can be sure that as production of the Model 3 ramps up, so will Tesla’s reservations. As more people see the car and hear about it, demand will only grow.

    3. gabriel vargas jimenez says:

      Time for Nissan Leaf

      1. William says:

        WHAT?
        Tesla Model 3 quitters are are appreciated by all of the Model Y waiters.
        Thanks again for your help.

      2. Miggy says:

        The Leaf is available now in RHD, looks like the Tesla Model 3 RHD will be 2019/2020 and the Bolt never.

        1. JohnD says:

          Consider a Jag i-pace?

          1. przemo_li says:

            Leaf is sold in UE, USA, Asia. Model 3 is sold in USA.

            Where is Jaguar i-Pace sold?

      3. Matthew Fabb says:

        Last I read in the US, presales for the Nissan Leaf were at 13,000. Europe had around 10,000 mid-December. Their sales in Japan were also high.

        Basically, quite the large numbers compared to how much the Leaf sold last year. So I wonder what kind of backlog will Nissan have before they manage to catch up.

        1. Ron says:

          As Nissan has sold 300,000 Leaf’s since 2010, the backlog of 23,000 should clear quite quickly.

        2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          The most the Leaf ever sold in a year, worldwide, was ~60,000. Without any active thermal management and with, now, other choices for BEV buyers, I think it unlikely that the latest Leaf is going to sell that many.

          If and when Nissan finally gets around to putting a liquid cooling systems into the Leaf — if they ever do — then perhaps sales will finally exceed that record of ~60,000.

    4. Viking79 says:

      He will surely make the car, but he is doing what will help prevent Tesla from going bankrupt. It is a smart move. They should probably stick to one battery size, etc, at least initially to control costs. Bring the 35k model once production is straightened. My guess is this is to help quarterly numbers in 2018. I figured this is how it would progress last year or two when people were saying it was cheaper than the Bolt EV. Sure, if you wait 2 years (but Bolt EV will be cheaper by then).

      I am interested in news model Y will be unveiled soon. That is the one I would preorder.

    5. gabriel vargas jimenez says:

      I think I am going to buy a Ford 150 Diesel Truck.

      1. EVShopper says:

        Enjoy killing your neighbors.

        1. William says:

          Or the Euro funded Diesel exhaust breathing lab monkeys, coughing up soot down in N.M.

          https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/01/31/business/energy-environment/bmw-daimler-volkswagen-diesel-monkeys.html

          1. Dan says:

            One million buyers a year. The USA is much less ready for EVs than the commenters on this website imagine.

            EVs will not be mandated in a democracy.

            They will have to compete (soon without tax credits) for regular buyers with the whole of automotive technology

            1. Asak says:

              We don’t really have much of a democracy here anyway. The public wasn’t clamoring for a huge tax cut targeted at the super wealthy (which amounts to a pittance for everyone else) either. Honestly EVs would probably be more popular.

              1. jm says:

                He shoots . . . he scores!!!

            2. przemo_li says:

              Since EVs are better cars, then ICE cars, outcome is easy to see.

              *”kW sells the car, torque wins the race” Porsche, EVs in both regards are easily better

            3. pjwood1 says:

              Love the industrial lamentation, Dan.

              “EVs will not be mandated in a democracy”.

              But diesels should be. It’s ok, because the benevolent people at VW and Ford know what we want. Right? Just stamp “Clean” on it and develop your own science.

              The only reason EPA got down so far, on NOx was because urea injection worked. Ford isn’t leaving that equipment completely off its vehicles. So, maybe I should be so hard on them. But people wanted “Clean”. It wasn’t “mandated in a democracy”, or whatever that automotive conference panel told you.

              “..with the whole of automotive technology.” We just watched the whole of technology land, on Tuesday. Bring it.

              1. pjwood1 says:

                “shouldn’t”

              2. Steve says:

                You mean crash land on Tuesday, right?

        2. Terry says:

          Dont get all high an mighty Mr Green. Dont think that Teslas are some kind of world saving clean emission car, it just has a longer tailpipe.

          1. Lawrence says:

            False.

          2. pjwood1 says:

            The only thing spreading faster than the flu, is natural gas. That long-tailpipe is well under the footprint of gasoline.

      2. Tim Miser says:

        No diesel for the F150. You’ll need to jump up to the F250.

        1. pjwood1 says:

          Ford announced a 3.0, coming in the F150 by end of year. I bet it complies as well as the Chevy Colorado. You just have to reach up and pull SCR off that shelf.

        2. Steven Loveday says:

          The new 2018 F-150 has a Power Stroke turbodiesel option for the first time ever. When is the PHEV coming … ?

          https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/ford-f150-diesel

    6. Mjp462 says:

      I’m so over this BS Model 3 story. I’ll lease a Leaf and in 3 years there will be plenty of competition from companies who know how to make cars. So when Tesla decides, in 2019!!!, to only make a small handful of SR cars I won’t be too surprised.

      1. Terry says:

        Exactly my thoughts, lease a Bolt or Leaf, then in 2-3 years see what is available. IF it turns out the M3 is being sold at a competitive price maybe then I will get one. Until then, forget Elon and his games.

        1. Asak says:

          I doubt BMW is going to cut the cost of the M3.

    7. CarGuy says:

      I will keep my reservation and buy a used VOLT until it is ready. The 2nd best all around practical car.

      1. WadeTyhon says:

        Good call. Don’t give up your space in line! The Volt is a fantastic car until you pick up your model 3. We have gone nearly a year without using a drop of gas in ours.

        For those who want a sleek looking plug-in that isn’t limited by range, grabbing a 2017 Volt Premier is a great substitution for a Model 3. Top optioned 2017 premiers with ACC and heated leather seats etc can be had for under 30k.

        For anyone who wants a sedan but needs something with more interior room… go for a Clarity PHEV. Owners have had mostly great things to say about it!

        Or for those who want to drive BEV only or prefer hatchbacks… grab a Leaf, i3 or Bolt EV.

      2. Simon says:

        Exactly what I did last year ! Love my volt 2012 and no hurry for M3 to arrive. It’s not like delays wern’t expected…

      3. Koenigsegg says:

        Volt is the best EV if you can’t afford a Tesla.

        2nd Gen is even better. But stock Volts are so boring.

        Mod yours and make it different

    8. wraithnot says:

      Tesla has a history of not meeting timelines. But they usually meet their other goals eventually. I used the battery swap station four times before they shut it down. And while they never made a 40 kWh Model S, a small number of people did get a software limited 60 kWh Model S for the promised $49,000 price (after factoring in the $7,500 tax credit). And I fully expect current Model 3 reservation holders will get a Model 3 for $35,000 if they are patient enough. But I also wouldn’t be shocked if they raise the price once all current reservation holders get their cars. My advice would be to keep the reservation and get a monthly car rental to tide you over. That’s what we did- and now we have a beautiful red Model 3 sitting in our driveway. It wasn’t delivered quite as soon as Tesla originally predicted. But my wife and I both think it was worth the wait!

      1. ziv says:

        +1.

        I am going to keep my base 2013 Volt until there are enough long range BEV’s being sold to drive the price down and the quality up.

    9. terminaltrip421 says:

      if the $35k could turn a profit then I would expect that they might make ti available, at least in limited supply. but I also would not bet on it.

    10. Terawatt says:

      I completely understand your sentiment. I’m a first-day reservation holder myself who reserved hoping the base model would be what was promised. Like you, I have serious doubts it will arrive even in 2019.

      Tesla being so deceptive is indefensible – and completely unnecessary. And it’s not the first time; Model S was presented as a $56k sedan (after incentives, in fine print with a low-contrast colour).

      But that having been said, it really does not make any sense for Tesla to supply you and me as long as they cannot supply enough more expensive versions of the car to meet demand.

      Hyundai just revealed the Kona gets WLTP range of 270 miles. It’ll be revealed on February 27 and shown in Geneva in the first half of March. Reserving one was free, so I’ve got one of those in addition to Model 3. Expected power is 150 kW and price should be below $40k. Supply may be an issue here too though – I’m curious to see.

      With more delays almost a given from Tesla, the 2019 LEAF e-Plus may well become available before Model 3 does, so maybe you should consider that as well.

      In short, before we can get a Model 3, there will be many other good alternatives. That’s if we can get a Model 3 at all.

      1. TwoVolts says:

        I agree. We will start to see good alternatives in the next couple years from other automakers.

    11. TwoVolts says:

      I just cancelled. My new ‘late 2018’ delivery date would have been almost certainly sometime in 2019. The car I was interested in was pushing $60K, even with the anticipated (reduced) EV tax credit in 2019. Just not worth the price IMHO.

    12. Bill Howland says:

      Aw C’mon! Its only been slightly less than 2 years. Maybe if you put a few more deposits down on the car, you’ll move up the line..

  2. tftf says:

    Told you so for months!

    The $35k “base price” Model3 was a giant ruse to get lots of deposits from gullible buyers.

    $TSLA had and has no interest to ever sell this base version in large quantities (simply no margins!).

    Maybe “early 2019” will soon become “never” (beyond a few tiken deliveries so Tesla can claim they sold the car…)

    1. David says:

      You were right. I didn’t believe. I took Elon at his word. Won’t make that mistake again.

      1. William says:

        You sound like the Woz.
        Calling St. Elon out, right after his successful Roadster launch?

        1. Spider-Dan says:

          “right after his successful Roadster launch”

          Now I see the problem! Launching a new car on to the market is hard, so instead Elon chose to launch an old car into orbit.

          Launch successful!

          1. TwoVolts says:

            LOL. +10

    2. bro1999 says:

      Seriously, if GM can’t make money on a Bolt, how could Tesla ever with a $35k 3?

      1. James says:

        Bro1999 is infamous for authoring a blog about his and other people’s Bolts that I like to call, “Bucket Of Bolts”!

        L 🙂 L

        1. Asak says:

          That’s actually a funny name. He should change to it if he hasn’t already. It would be very tongue in cheek.

        2. bro1999 says:

          Or possibly “Blog about the 200+ mile, <$40k BEV that actually exists". Though that's not nearly as catchy as yours.

          1. justanotherguy50 says:

            +1

      2. przemo_li says:

        LOL.

        GM have zero control over costs in most pricey parts of EV – battery pack.

        Tesla do have thank’s to it’s Gigafactory (on top of partnering with biggest battery producer on earth – so already with best benefits from scale)

        1. Spider-Dan says:

          How many aluminum mines does Tesla own?
          How about rubber tree forests? Textile factories? Silicon mines?

          The idea that batteries are some sort of unique component that is not subject to the same market pressures as literally every other component of the car is silly. GM doesn’t own a battery factory for the same reason they don’t own cattle ranches for leather interiors.

          It’s worth noting that of the other legacy automakers, Nissan did own their own battery factories and got out of the business, while Mitsubishi has an ownership stake in their battery production and was held hostage by a 6-year-long battery shortage before they could release the Outlander PHEV in the US.

      3. Terawatt says:

        Scale. GM doesn’t want to sell many Bolts and making small series of a car that doesn’t even share platform with any others is expensive.

      4. TwoVolts says:

        At sufficient volume, the Bolt EV and its GM EV successors can and will make money. There are development and fixed production costs that are currently spread across too few vehicle sales. That will change eventually.

      5. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        “Seriously, if GM can’t make money on a Bolt, how could Tesla ever with a $35k 3?”

        Obviously, by running their business differently. For example, Tesla has no “stealerships” and spends almost no money on mass advertising.

        Thank goodness Tesla doesn’t run its business like GM! I wonder how long it will be until GM tries to run its business like Tesla? 😀

        1. WadeTyhon says:

          Possibly not long!

          GM started direct sale with tesla-gallery like showrooms and online ordering in China for the E100. No dealerships.

    3. BroncoBet says:

      Saying 35K is dishonest, every other car maker includes destination but not Tesla ,it’s 1K destination if you pick it up at the factory, so it’s the 36K model that they will not sell unless or until they run out of buyers willing to pay more. There will certainly be no buyers of the 36K version to get the 7.5K Federal rebate.
      They will start sales to EU before they sell a base 3 to Americans.

  3. Taser54 says:

    Auto bidness is tough.

  4. Jason says:

    I think I may cancel too. I’ve always doubted Tesla will make a 35k car, and that doubt ramps up with this announcement.

    1. Viking79 says:

      Then they cancel it for “lack of demand”. This wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest.

  5. bro1999 says:

    The $35k base Model 3 is vaporware. Lots of reservation holders must be feeling very upset right now.

    1. William says:

      Model Y waiters, couldn’t be happier.
      Thanks for reminding me that I might get my “Y” just that much sooner.

      1. Murrysville EV says:

        There won’t be a Model Y if Tesla can’t build the Model 3 profitably.

        Besides, you can bet a Model Y will ‘start’ at $40k+ but really will be closer to $55-60k. If this is OK with you, then how long are you willing to wait, and how much are you willing to pay?

        Other companies like Hyundai, VW, and GM will sell electric CUVs much cheaper, and sooner.

        1. JimInAuburn says:

          They will announce the Model Y for $45K, but never deliver it because they will only deliver higher optioned ones that cost $60K.

        2. Terawatt says:

          There won’t be a Tesla if they can’t do that! Model 3 is the make or break car for a reason. The culmination of the master plan is profitability. Whether that plan will be realized remains to be seen.

          1. Bill Howland says:

            You only have to pay $45,000 for the “announcement”. If you want the actual CAR, that’s extra.

    2. WadeTyhon says:

      It’s not going to be vaporware. But it is gonna be late and it is gonna be low in priority compared to higher optioned models. Kinda like how LT Bolt’s sell worse and are stocked at dealers less frequently.

      If Tesla ever does cancel the 35k version, feel free to gloat. Until then, try to keep to what has actually happened?

      As far as reservationists expectations… for folks who have been following Tesla for a long time, this was hardly a surprise.

      But lots of potential buyers are new to this. They’re hoping for their first EV. Many actually thought the Model 3 was going to outsell all other EVs… in 2017!

      I blame sites like Electrek for caring more about the stock/market evaluation, and keeping the hype train rolling. All while vilifying other plug-in automakers. They set the wrong expectations. Kudos to Inside EVs and Green Car Reports for being excited for the Model 3 while also realistic.

      I hope that anyone who is upset at the delays doesn’t cancel their reservation and can wait it out.

      If not, they should turn to other plug-ins instead of keeping their ICE.

      1. Bill Howland says:

        Hey Dealers just order the type of BOLT evs that they want. GM had nothing to do with it, certainly not lying.

        In poor Buffalo, NY the dealers ordered mostly stripped down LT’s. My car only has the metalic paint, LT trim, heated front seats and steering wheel, and auto rear view mirror as part of that package.

        But there was also a ZERO option BOlt ev with plain paint and no heated seats that I COULD have bought from day one. No fast charging option since there are few to none in the places where I drive places to fast charge. Used my old wallboxes to recharge the car that I already have.

        I don’t believe they lose money in the States on the BOlt ev. If they had, the zero option cars (of which there are plenty of examples here) just would not be made.

        I normally pick a car with no options but I wanted the heated seats since I make long trips during the winter, and it would be torture without the seats since I only use enough heat to see out the windshield.

        1. QCO says:

          Agreed. There is no doubt that GM has positive operating margin on every volume production vehicle they sell, including Volts and Bolts. R&D is a different issue.

          GM is simply not in the business of selling cars at a loss.

        2. Warren says:

          The twin to our Bolt LT, built in late 2016, with DCFC, and heated seats/wheel finally sold. It was still there a few days ago. Maybe a frustrated base Model 3 reservation holder bought it?

      2. JimInAuburn says:

        The $35K version may never happen. If their production does not outpace what they need in LR and dual motor versions, they will never deliver the SR model. Why would they deliver a SR version if they have people waiting for a LR version?

    3. Bill Howland says:

      Maybe they could offer a model that just used “D” cells and eliminated the charger..

      Anyone who ran out of juice could go to the service center, where they’d say “Oh! You should have paid extra for the ‘refillable’ model.”

  6. Lawrence says:

    Geez, we’ve been saying this for months. The profitable one needs to be produced until demand is met, the the AWD will be produced and the base model is a filler. Nothing new here.

    1. yogurt says:

      +1 nothing new here as producing and selling the expensive version before the cheaper base model is common business sense…

      The base model 3 is not vaporware and neither is the VW ID they are all coming…

      Really??? “what’s likely to be the money-losing standard Model 3” do you have sources or is this just pure speculation because I believe that the base model 3 will lose money about as much as I believe the Bolt and Leaf lose money…
      The CFO can do all kinds of money tricks in accounting to make it look how they want spreading out design development and tooling costs…

    2. Asak says:

      The issue is whether there is demand for 5k/week without the base model. I say there probably isn’t, therefore one of the projections is not correct. If they don’t make the base then they don’t sell 250k/year.

      1. Lawrence says:

        Remember that their strategy is to convert BMW 3, Merc C and Audi A4 sales to Model 3. 99.99% of those buyers don’t buy a base model of those cars so Tesla should have no problems selling plenty of optioned up Model 3’s.

        1. David says:

          Total BMW sales for ALL their passenger cars for 2017 was only 202,201. The Model 3 will have a tough time selling 500,000/yr if they only target BMW & equivalent. It needs to target Toyota Camry, or Honda Accord kind of volume. But maybe that will be the Model Y plan.

  7. Michael Will says:

    It’s not just a matter of margings but also that they don’t have a runrate to satisfy all the $60k car orders already in the pipeline by people whos turn it is in line. Once they are able to run at full rate and deplete the order book, the $35k car will come too.

    I have been driving the $60k version for four weeks now, to me it’s no contest for the Bolt really, the Bolt feels like a 2015 VW eGolf with a bigger battery while the Model 3 feels like a spaceship on wheels. So IMHO the $40k version ($35k version plus autopilot) is the sweetspot that is totally worth waiting for.

    1. David says:

      You could almost buy two bolts for the price of your model 3. There shouldn’t be a comparison.

      By the time Tesla is out of production he’ll, if that ever really happens and they get to 500,000 per year, there will be no wait list.

      There is no value is giving $1000 donation to Tesla. Exponential curve works both ways. They’re making so few now that I’m essentially at infinity on the wait list. By the time they suddenly ramp up to be able to work through the waitlist, they’ll be making so many they can’t keep a waitlist. Can order one then.

      In the mean time I’ll have some other car for years.

      1. EV4me says:

        David, it’s a free market. Buy a Bolt!

      2. Michael Will says:

        The $60k if I recall correctly is comprised of
        $35k base
        $9k larger battery (310 mile range instead of 215 mile range)
        $5k pup (premium sound, seats, whatever)
        $1k pearl white color
        $5k autopilot plus $3k FSD (don’t pay for FSD unless you mean it as a kickstarter donation at this point)
        +delivery+taxes. came out to about $60k total.

        That is why I said $40k is basically what you should budget for as entry level with autopilot driver assist, which is far and beyond what you get for $40k in the form of the Bolt.

        1. David says:

          Except that postponed another year, you can’t get the Model 3. They will likely postpone it again next year.

          With the Bolt or pretty much any other car, you can still get the $7500 tax rebate. That will clearly be gone by 2019 or whenever, if ever, they start making the standard range.

        2. ziv says:

          Base Bolts sell for $31,600 on the east coast, less on the west coast. Throw in fast charging (and $400 to improve the front seats) and you are still under $33k. Less the credit a Bolt costs you less than $26k. By the time the base 3 arrives there won’t be a lot of time left of the full credit. Hopefully there will be at least a quarter of base 3’s and the full credit.
          But the Bolt is a good deal and you can get it now, not next year.

          1. SparkEV says:

            Every time I’m tempted to switch to Bolt, I end up waiting at DCFC for free charging Bolt (75% of time), Leaf, i3. It’s a constant reminder why non-Tesla EVs are not good.

            1. ziv says:

              Free charging doesn’t seem to work well at all. Tragedy of the commons.
              I think that what we see as normal with regards to fast charging right now will seem pretty antiquated in 2 to 3 years.

              I am going to hold onto my Volt for at least 2 more years.
              My current dream car is for a roomy, mid-sized car or CUV, that has a decent AER of at least 280 miles (in the warm weather months) AER for under $40,000 with at least 75 kW, preferably 150 kW, max charge rate for at least 2/3 of the pack’s total capacity, (sans taper).
              I will probably buy a car with less than what I want on one of these goals, but I would be happy to see some of them exceeded by the BEV’s being sold in 2020 or 2021.
              Yeah, I will have to be patient.

            2. Asak says:

              If Tesla actually sells as many Model 3s as they’re projecting the charging situation may not be much better for them–free or not.

              1. SparkEV says:

                First, having multiple handles at supercharger sites mean less waiting. Statistically, 12 car line (plus 12 cars plugged in = 24 cars at a site) at 12 handle supercharger is equivalent to 1 Bolt at single handle CCS (much of San Diego). While waiting for 1 Bolt is almost every single time, waiting for 12 Teslas with 12 already plugged in at a supercharger almost never happens.

                Second, having to pay for charging as well as away from population centers mean locals using superchargers will be rare, if ever. By contrast, almost all Leaf/i3 are locals simply there to get “opportunity charge” while their car already has 80% or more.

                If not for local free chargers, I can even live with SparkEV even with single handle per site problem.

                1. Nick says:

                  Yep.

                  I use the free charging all the time to make trips down to the city, which I couldn’t make without charging. I try to avoid all single handle chargers.

              2. Warren says:

                As a Bolt owner, I am very envious of the Supercharger network. But I wonder how it is supposed to work once hundreds of thousands own Teslas. Tesla’s original customers spent their time driving around the country showing off their Teslas, and posting the pictures on Faceborg. Regular folks will be using Superchargers once or twice a year going to visit relatives at the holidays, and charging at home the rest of the time. So the stations will be underutilized most of the time, and then be overwhelmed when everybody wants them.

                1. SparkEV says:

                  Yes, it could get crowded on holidays. But that means CCS/Chademo will be far worse with competition from locals as well as distance drivers. Also, Tesla can use Chademo adapter if Chademo is less crowded whereas CCS stuck to just CCS.

                  1. Warren says:

                    My question wasn’t about how the drivers would cope, but about the business case for the network. I guess if it helps sell millions of Teslas, it could run at a loss.

                2. pjwood1 says:

                  With very few superchargers, in 2014-2015, it was almost never a problem. I remember only California was where charging waits got bad, before subsequent expansion mitigated it.

                  Model 3 owners will pay to charge. The new 72KW stations are basically doubling SC access, in metro areas. They’re on it, because they have to be. The others?

            3. Terawatt says:

              Do you not charge at home at all?? You seem to have this problem A LOT, whereas I hardly ever use DCFC (for my LEAF, without free charging, in Norway)…

              1. SparkEV says:

                I charge at home, but practically every time I’m at DCFC, it’s mostly free charging Bolts tapered to hell (used to be free charging Leafs). What’s getting me more upset is that even if I need just 5 minutes to get over the hump, wait can be an hour.

            4. WadeTyhon says:

              Dude, the Bolt is an awesome car. Better than our Spark EV was. The charge rate taper is more severe, yes, and I don’t get the 5 m/kWh that I did in the Spark! But other than that the Bolt is the better car.

              If you aren’t able to charge at home, the Bolt is far better. If a station is being ‘Leafed’ then you can wait and go on to the next station or just go tomorrow because you have plenty of extra range. 🙂

              Or if you need a charge then and there, because the L2 charge rate is 7.2 kW instead of 3.3, you can pick up ~25 miles/hour at a public L2 charger while you wait for a DCFC. I would usually get only 12 miles / hour with the Spark at L2.

              1. SparkEV says:

                I’m not comparing Bolt to SparkEV. I’m comparing Bolt to Tesla supercharger network. There is no contest.

                I’m sick of all these free charging Bolts tapered to hell and still plugged in at DCFC for an hour or more. With more free charging Leafs with bigger battery, things will get much worse. I might have to drive a gasser for a while until Tesla 3 is out, but I’m not waiting at free charger crowded DCFC with Bolt kind of money.

                1. Mark Hathaway says:

                  What the hell are you talking about “free charging” Bolts? I’ve got a Bolt and there was no included free charging. I’ve had it since November and haven’t even needed to use an L3 charger yet. There range is fantastic with the bolt, I start every morning with 200 miles of range.

                  1. SparkEV says:

                    If you drive Bolt for Lyft/Maven in some markets (eg. San Diego), you get free charging. There are only a handful of Lyft/Maven Bolts I see that DCFC, they completely sour the EV experience of the whole city.

                    Now imagine thousands of longer Leaf with free charging coming to market soon, and you can see how absolutely awful waiting at DCFC will be.

    2. JimInAuburn says:

      How will new orders compare to what they can produce? So if they take in 20K new orders for LR or dual motor a month, and they have a production of 20K a month, why would they waste a production slot to produce a SR model?

      So maybe they have 1K-2K worth of slots open for SR cars. But then current owners get preference, so they will eat up much of that production. And as I sit in line, someone ordering a LR, dual motor or that is a current owner orders theirs and gets it in two months and I get bumped back again.

  8. Miffed says:

    I’m done. This will be 2 and a half years MINIMUM. Nobody expected Summer ’17 but to take twice as long AT BEST is fraud.

    1. WadeTyhon says:

      If you can wait, do so. We spent about 20 mins combing over the Model 3 last week and it was an awesome car.

      But if you can’t wait, cross shop other plug-ins! Lots of great models on the market right now. My wife loves her Volt. The Clarity PHEV is interesting. They’re good substitutions for a Model 3.

      We want the model 3, and are able to wait 12-15 months. The Model 3 will be replacing our Volt that will be paid off this spring. But if it takes longer than Q1 2019 we will probably get another Volt.

      1. Terry says:

        If you wait that long for the M3 the you will lose the tax rebate. Much better off leasing or buying some other EV, a Bolt or new design Leaf, then if M3 around in couple of years, get one then. Waiting no longer makes any sense, everyone should cancel and get the full tax rebate, while sending a message to Elon he shouldnt play games with other peoples money.

    2. EJ says:

      Glad I cancelled my M3 reservation and got my $1,000 back from Tesla. Happy with my new Volt, a really affordable EV. I simply couldn’t wait until early/mid 2018 and now way into 2019 for the basic M3 and losing the tax incentive. I’ll be back for the Model Y, maybe.

      1. WadeTyhon says:

        Totally understandable. We can wait until about Q1 next year at the latest… the 4500 rebate should hopefully still be available.

        So we are hoping we will be able to get our Model 3 by then. If not, we’ll be getting a new Volt like you did.

      2. WadeTyhon says:

        “I don’t believe Tesla will ever make a $35,000 Model 3. I don’t believe early 2019. Elon has no credibility. They will cancel it like they cancelled the 40kwh Model S. And claim no interest.”

        I disagree, I am certain that it will come out… eventually. But making the Q1 timeline might not happen for us. We aren’t first day reservationists. And we aren’t current Tesla owners. And delays seem to still be occurring with the Model 3.

        It may not be your cup of tea, but I absolutely love our Bolt. Give it a shot if you haven’t.

        We love our Volt also, but the Bolt has become our primary car. Both have been rock solid and are fun to drive. (especially the Bolt) But if you need a bigger sedan, can’t go wrong with a Clarity PHEV.

        I’d suggest the Prius Prime, but if you don’t like the looks of the Clarity, you’d probably barf all over the prime! lol.

        1. WadeTyhon says:

          Ugh the page reloaded as I was replying and screwed this up. It was supposed to be a response to David.

        2. EJ says:

          Glad you like your Bolt. I couldn’t stand the narrow front seats of the Bolt, unfortunately. At 6ft4 the Volt was a much better fit. Of course, nobody can sit behind me but I use the car for commuting 98% of the time. And the Volt was heavily discounted, with no discounts on Bolts. Anyways, 4 months of EV driving already compared to having to wait a year for the M3.

      3. Elooney Muskey says:

        The $35k Model Y is coming soon! Send Tesla your munny now!
        Oh wait. Elooney said he will come up with something about Model Y in 6 months.

  9. EVShopper says:

    Called it. And I’ve been flamed on various forums for predicting base model would not be available until 2019.

    Sad to be right.

    1. William says:

      You called it, how EVer so wright you are.

    2. Terawatt says:

      You’re not right yet. If it arrives in 2019 you will be, at least if it doesn’t immediately disappear again…

      I expect Tesla to make a few of the $35k car so they technically were merely delayed (by two to three years!) and can claim they didn’t break their promise, but then cancel it for some stated reason (e.g. lack of demand) other than the real one (it’s not profitable). That’s the M.O. they’ve followed in the past with the $56k sedan dubbed the Model S.

  10. Six Electrics says:

    Everyone but Tesla saw this coming a mile away. I can’t believe you can armchair quarterback a multibillion dollar company from your parents’ basement and still substantially outclass the “management.”

  11. Markh21518 says:

    By the time Tesla makes a 215 miles M3 it will be 39+k sure to price increases. Won’t ever be a 35k car since they are 36k now with destination

    1. PiP_n_ModelS says:

      This “$35k” base model actually costs “41k” once you factor Enhanced AutoPilot and Destination/Doc fees (I don’t expect that many to be sold without AutoPilot).

      1. David says:

        Don’t forget a color for $1000

  12. chris says:

    I think it’s safe to say the 35k model won’t ever be produced. If it does, it will be in very limited quantities after the entire tax credit has been phased out. Production is going to stay at low levels on the model 3 for a long time. No point in paying almost 60k for a model 3 when you can pick up a lightly used model S with free supercharging for close to the same price.

    1. WadeTyhon says:

      It will be released but it will be later than expected.

      If they can deliver by Q1 2019 then they have our buy. If they miss that window, we will go with a 2019 Volt.

    2. Spider-Dan says:

      “Data indicates that virtually no one is ordering a Model 3 with exactly zero options, therefore we have determined that the demand for the base Model 3 will be too low to be worth filling. Accordingly, we have eliminated the $35,000 configuration.”

      1. Asak says:

        Virtually no one should be in internal quotes.

    3. Stan1 says:

      You are claiming they will hit the 200,000 mark this quarter to insinuate they will run out of the subsidy before the based Model 3 ships. Very bullish of you.

  13. WadeTyhon says:

    This is what the employees at the Tesla gallery told me as well last week when we were checking out the model 3.

    The timing works out Ok for us… if they can meet the Q1 goal! We need at least the 4500 rebate to justify the higher price for the options she wants. If they can’t meet that time frame, my wife will probably go for the gen 2 volt.

    For anyone who can’t wait that long and wants a plug-in sedan… go for a Volt or Clarity PHEV. Leaf or Bolt if a hatch is what you need.

    Despite what some die hard Tesla fans say, there are other good electrics out there. And those companies will make more of those electrics if we show them demand.

    The Model 3 will be great and it is our first choice to replace our 2013 Volt.., but it isn’t the only option out there. If you need a new car right now, shop for another plug-in! Lease the plug-in for 2 or 3 years then get a Model 3 when it is more widely available. Just don’t get another gasser! Who needs it!

    1. David says:

      Thats exactly the boat I’m in. I had it so planned out since 2013. Leased a LEAF for 3 years, thought that would be long enough. I was wrong. Then bought a temporary car I don’t like, planning to sell in 2-3 years before warranty runs out. I don’t believe Tesla will ever make a $35,000 Model 3. I don’t believe early 2019. Elon has no credibility. They will cancel it like they cancelled the 40kwh Model S. And claim no interest.

      I’m debating keeping a car I don’t like for longer than I had planned or get some other plugin.
      – Honda Clarity: I test drove one this week. It seems like a really good car although amazingly ugly. Seems way better than the Volt. Much larger car, great gas mileage and good all electric range.
      – Nissan LEAF: I will not buy a LEAF without TMS. My 2013 held up better than most but was still degrading big time. Maybe in 2019 I’d get that instead of the Model 3 postponed until 2020 by then and $7500 more expensive. I could lease the current 150mile LEAF.
      – Kia Niro: I can’t figure out what the EV range will be nor where it will be available.

      In general, time to start shopping again. I’m throwing in the towel on the Model 3. Maybe after another 3 year lease it will be available in some form, or the Model Y will be available someday.

      1. WadeTyhon says:

        “I don’t believe Tesla will ever make a $35,000 Model 3. I don’t believe early 2019. Elon has no credibility. They will cancel it like they cancelled the 40kwh Model S. And claim no interest.”

        I disagree, I am certain that it will come out… eventually. But making the Q1 timeline might not happen for us. We aren’t first day reservationists. And we aren’t current Tesla owners. And delays seem to still be occurring with the Model 3.

        It may not be your cup of tea, but I absolutely love our Bolt. Give it a shot if you haven’t.

        We love our Volt also, but the Bolt has become our primary car. Both have been rock solid and are fun to drive. (especially the Bolt) But if you need a bigger sedan, can’t go wrong with a Clarity PHEV.

        I’d suggest the Prius Prime, but if you don’t like the looks of the Clarity, you’d probably barf all over the prime! lol.

        1. Stan1 says:

          “I don’t believe Tesla will ever make a $35,000 Model 3. I don’t believe early 2019. Elon has no credibility. They will cancel it like they cancelled the 40kwh Model S. And claim no interest.”

          This isn’t remotely believable. Tesla couldn’t claim there was no interest in the base Model 3 even if they wanted.

      2. David Cary says:

        Wow. I get that you are pissed. But come on.

        The base is $49k available today (to those of us high on the list). Not $60k.

        For that money, you get a big battery with good performance and range.

  14. ffbj says:

    They can do that since they have so many orders for the long range one they could probably put it off till 2020.
    Now, that would be too much.

    Not surprised except that they might have announced it sooner. It’s also due to the difficulty of making a different version, which would slow them down even more.

    I’m thinking that was part of what informed this decision. They want to produce as many optioned up cars of the same battery configuration as quickly as the may.

    1. TeslaPlease says:

      Please share with us how many ORDERS (SIGNED NON-REFUNDABLE DEPOSITS) Tesla has processed so far.

      Reservations are not orders and I have seen nothing official from Tesla confirming how many reservations (opened for configuration) have moved to a finalized order.

      1. ffbj says:

        It’s the most in demand car of all time, so no problem in the reservation line, which extends for miles, around 825k, at last count.

  15. AlanSqB says:

    Just got a 2018 Clarity PHEV this weekend and cancelled my M3 reservation . It has Honda Sense which is pretty much equivalent to AP 1/EAP and much cheaper.

    I’ll come back to Tesla after they improve quality and start delivering the FSD they have been promising for years. I also don’t want a car where I can “feel every bump” as the 3 has been described often. I think I will just save up more to buy the S.

    1. William says:

      At least that back seat on the “Helpful” Honda Clairity PHEV, is super comfortable.

  16. Jean-François Morissette says:

    AWD is now estimated to mid 2018 for me (1st day reservation online in Canada before reveal) for both SR and LR. So this is really the SR with propulsion that is pushed back to 2019 (for now). high margins first, and maybe Canada to delay the credit expiration in the US a little bit.

  17. Shane says:

    Well damn. I just made it to D.C. and sat in the Model 3 on display there. Nice car. Was hoping to FINALLY get mine this summer…

    Hey Nissan, cram that 60 kWh battery in your new Leaf and you’ll probably snag quite a few of us.

    1. William says:

      Nissan Leaf (60kWh) beats Tesla Model 3 in early 2019, to the $35k 200+ mile EV Holy Grail?

      1. CCIE says:

        The Bolt is already there. Easy to find stripped Bolts under $35k, before any tax credits.

        1. Terawatt says:

          Maybe in the USA. In Norway, with 30% of new car sales being BEVs and GM making about two Opel Ampera-e per year, it simply doesn’t exist as a new car and is frequently advertised for $50k upwards on the second hand market.

          1. CCIE says:

            GM no longer does business in Europe. Complain to Opel for not developing a BEV.

  18. TJKR says:

    Seriously considering the Kia Niro EV or wait a a little longer for the Volkswagon ID or 60KW Leaf. I agree with many, I don’t think $35K Model 3 will make any financial sense for Tesla. I am only going to get it at $35K and with the reduced Federal Tax credit, alternatives make alot more sense.

  19. CCIE says:

    How long have those of us who are realists been saying that there is no way for them to make money on the stripped base model at $35k? I hate to rub it in people’s faces, but fantasy and delusion doesn’t help anyone.

    I had always believed that Tesla would eventually get the M3 into mass production. But, if they really can’t make money on $50k cars, or ramp up quickly, then their survival is in doubt. They can’t keep going back to the markets for money infusions.

    For those of you who are disappointed and want a great affordable EV now, the Bolt and Leaf are already here.

    1. William says:

      Leaf is still arriving, and not quite yet “already here”, in most US states.

  20. Mister G says:

    Very disappointed but I will wait until the fat lady sings.

  21. PK says:

    I’m confused. Originally it was late 2018 but now, if I opt for AWD I can get it in mid 2018. (Canadian order BTW)
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/wwe0ei560w7shc4/Screenshot%202018-02-07%2022.04.56.png?dl=0

    1. PK says:

      Note, 220 mi or 310 mi version.

  22. DJ says:

    You guys know that Elon is laughing at all you suckers right while he collects interest on your deposits…

    Please tell us again how that whole soft tooling idea was genius!!

    I doubt they’ll even hit 2.5k per week consistently this quarter. Remember what they say are their aspirational goals which they basically never ever meet…

    Good news though is the Powerwall 2 delays may be nearing an end as they have to stick batteries somewhere 😀

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “You guys know that Elon is laughing at all you suckers right while he collects interest on your deposits…”

      No, but I’m pretty sure Elon is laughing at suckers like you who are making “short” investments in TSLA, because you short-sellers are actually driving up the price of TSLA stock!

      So, please do continue to throw your money away on shorting TSLA. We Tesla fans appreciate the way you’re supporting the company!
      😆 😆 😆

      “Tesla envy happens when other people have, ahem, long positions and yours is too short.” — Jim Whitehead

    2. Murrysville EV says:

      2 years of interest on $1000 isn’t very much money.

      1. Dan says:

        It’s not interest earned, it’s interest payments avoided on what would otherwise be +/- $500,000,000 of borrowed money.

        1. +1000 This is Elon’s game. Financial engineering at rocket science level, way too advance for the retail crowd who laps it right up.

        2. Someone out there says:

          Yep and now that the reservations of Trucks has subsided Elon is starting to make fuss about the model Y. Expect him to start taking preorders on that pretty soon. Elon sure is a genius when it comes to selling fictional products.

  23. Texas FFE says:

    The 2019 Ford Edge is going to have a Level 3 AV system. The 300 mile BEV SUV Ford is coming out with next year will probably also have a Level 3 AV system. The Tesla novelty is quickly disappearing.

    BTW, I’m still very happy running around in my little 2017 FFE every day. I have not once regretted not putting $1,000 for a Model 3 and you couldn’t pay me to wait for a Model Y. It is nice to see the Tesla fan boys eat a little crow now that it’s obviously the Model 3 is not going to be able to compete on price with the Bolt EV anytime soon.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      The Tesla Model 3 is priced to compete with the BMW 3-Series and the Audi A4… as those who were actually paying attention noticed at least a year ago. However, that won’t prevent the TM3 from vastly outselling the cheaper Bolt EV, as it’s a much better car overall.

      Do try to pay more attention in the future.

    2. Dan says:

      Wouldn’t hold my breath on that Ford EV SUV. Someday yes. Soon?

      1. ziv says:

        Buick CUV should be out next year, late. But a CUV probably won’t work for you if you need SUV attributes.

    3. Karunesh says:

      This argument sounds like saying that the next gen Toyota Corolla will be an A4/C Class/3 Series beater and will drive the germans out of business

  24. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    My my, the Tesla short-sellers and serial Tesla bashers are certainly having a field day in the comments, aren’t they?

    Personally, I’m glad to see Tesla announcing a more realistic timeline for the Model 3 ramp-up, and I hope they will continue to use this more conservative, more realistic and less “aspirational” approach to announced goals going forward.

    I admire Tesla for many things, but its level of hype certainly was never one of them. If Tesla starts announcing more realistic goals, then I for one will be pleased.

    1. David says:

      There is no indication early 2019 is any more realistic nor any less “aspirational” than all of Elon’s other broken promises.

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        You’ve made no less than 9 Tesla Hater cultists FUD comments just in this one thread, “David”. Give your obsession a rest, already, and turn down the gain on your Tesla Hater reality distortion goggles.

        Also, if you’re that upset over all the money you’re losing on shorting TSLA, then just sell your position and invest in something that might actually earn some money. Whining about it isn’t helping anyone.

        1. David says:

          Chill. When someone gets slighted by Tesla, waiting 2 years for a car that has suddenly become $7500 more expensive and a year later, and is now indicating that anyone with more money can cut in line, yes they will be upset. That doesn’t make them a hater or shorter.

          It is silly and defensive to think anyone who is slighted by Tesla is suddenly a Tesla short. I have been a long time supporter of Tesla, probably longer than you. I’ve made bunch of money on Tesla on the upside, never shorting.

          I want to see Tesla do well. But betraying the public at large is not the way to endear yourself to the mass market. If they intend to be exclusively a high end car maker thats fine, but that is not the way Elon presented it two years ago when reservations were opened up.

          If they don’t intend to make a $35,000 car then they should quit the deception. Don’t advertise a car you don’t intend to make and have people give real money on a false promise.

          If they had stated the Model 3 was a $49,000 car and up, thats fine and would not have been deceptive.

          1. Leave now David, before they start throwing stones.

            The faithful don’t like questions of faith.

          2. Bill Howland says:

            David the big difference is that you are a serious person putting your own funds at risk.

            Meanwhile Pushi Blabs this and that but he will never puchase any Vehicle whatsoever – he has no ‘skin in the game’, and at 63 years old, and a non-driver, he never will.

            I appreciate some other person’s serious thoughts, and how they are considering spending their own money they themselves have earned.

            1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

              I’m always amused when someone obsessed with wealth suggests that my opinion is somehow worth less because I don’t have “skin in the game”.

              My interest in EVs in general, and Tesla specifically, is pure, altruistic, and untainted by the greed which causes so many Tesla short-sellers to spread FUD and Big Lies.

              That includes those who short-sell TSLA while continuing to deny that they are doing so.

              But what really gets your goat about me, Bill, is that someone who doesn’t even own an EV and who doesn’t claim to be an engineer, as you do, understands EVs and EV engineering so much better than you do! Of course, it helps that I’m not a hardcore conspiracy theorist who has trouble distinguishing between fantasy and reality, like you.

              1. Bill Howland says:

                As opposed to your drivel, my comment was accurate, no offense! You get your scientific information from your LUNA Fictional Novels. You said so yourself.

                1. Bill Howland says:

                  Politeness is not one of you virtues Pushi, since although you addressed your comment to me, I did *NOT* address my comment to you.

                  1. Bill Howland says:

                    Yes, there you go again – you arrogantly claim you know so much more than someone of proven ability – yet when details are mentioned you either become scarce and disappear, or else you say something so stupid that you are forced to dummy-up anyway.

                    Since you are so Altuistic as you claim, how’s that Job with Tesla going? Surely you’d want to work for them for free……

                    Especially since you’ve expressed an interest to Work for Tesla, your words not mine.

                    Possibly even volunteering, Tesla has wisely said “Thanks, but No Thanks!”.

                    Maybe they don’t want an actual Tesla Hater, who accused them of selling defective Roadsters, working for them. I sure wouldn’t want anything MORE to do with you.

              2. Bill Howland says:

                “Obsessed with Wealth”.

                Yeah, its called being an ADULT. I merely stated that David is right to be concerned how he spends his own money.

                For you to complain about that is obviously someone who has gotten a free ride on Welfare all his life. You’ve never done anything productive other than make noise here.

                And you have no scruples that ‘bother’ you that you are living off others like a parasite.

    2. DJ says:

      You don’t get to call out the supposed haters, shorters, and your favorite FUDstrers for calling Tesla on their BS timelines then say your happy they aren’t issuing such BS timelines anymore.

      Do you see how big a dbag doing that makes you? That was rhetorical, of course you don’t.

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        You Tesla Hater cultists really have a problem with wishful thinking and twisting facts to fit your FUD, don’t you? Just like the scorpion in the story of “The Frog and the Scorpion”, you can’t help lying and throwing around gratuitous insults — it’s in your nature.

        You Tesla Hater cultists are still claiming that Tesla will never make the base $35,000 Model 3. And when Tesla does start doing so, not a single one of you FUDsters will own up to the fact that you repeated that Big Lie for so long. Just as you haters refuse to admit that you were wrong when you claimed that sales of the TM3 “don’t count” when sold to employees, or “don’t count” when sold without the FM radio operating, or “don’t count” when sold without the intermittent wipers being enabled.

        You keep moving the goal posts; now TM3 sales “don’t count” because Tesla isn’t yet selling the $35,000 base “stripper” trim level.

        DJ, you calling me a “douchebag” just reminds everyone of what a huge loser and a troll you are.

        A loser in every possible way.

        1. CCIE says:

          I’ll double down and invite a future call-out if I’m proven wrong: Tesla will never sell more than a token number of $35k M3s, because they can’t make money on it at that price. They can’t even make money on the $50k version today, though hopefully that changes when they stop hand building parts of it.

          Real car companies with decades of mass manufacturing experience are having trouble breaking even on EVs. To think that an inexperienced company like Tesla can jump into mass production and beat the big boys is just naive.

          1. Elooney Muskey says:

            But but.. St. Elon told us battery costs will be waaaay lower because he invented the physics of velocity and volume analysis of Giggle factory! Was that a LIE?

            But but.. Model Y will sure blow your skull, will be the best CUV ever and cost only $30k! Send your munny now!

            (Elooney lights the cash incinerator with his flamethrower. Preps the marsh mellows, LOL at his fandom.)

            1. SansIce says:

              Yeah you guys are pretty idiotic and screeching now because your trolling ways are being revealed and your shorts are losing money like crazy. I had to chime in – Look as much as you hate Elon – He just launched the biggest rocket in the world with a friggen roadster on board that was launched into space. The Model 3 was the best selling EV last month. The combined line of Tesla Vehicles outsells every other manufacturer for EVs. I know you are losing at it must be frustrating – its actually pretty hilarious reading your desperate rants.

              1. CCIE says:

                Sometimes I stop and wonder if I’m replying to 12 year olds…

                1. Bill Howland says:

                  CCIE that’s a point. But please don’t insult the typical 12 year old’s intelligence quotient.

                  12 years old is pretty High-Brow compared to the peanut-gallery here.

          2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            “Tesla will never sell more than a token number of $35k M3s, because they can’t make money on it at that price.”

            Well of course you will just claim that whatever number of “stripper” units Tesla makes is just a “token” number because that fits your narrative. You will ignore the fact that this is exactly the same as every other auto maker does. None of them makes large numbers of “stripper” units of cars priced at $35k or more.

            Now, that’s not to say that you personally are a Tesla FUDster, CCIE, because you certainly have not established that reputation here. But for some reason, in this particular case, you certainly are parroting that piece of FUD churned out by them!

            I thought you had more sense. Sad.

            1. CCIE says:

              I’ve been saying for months that they won’t sell more than a token amount of $35k M3s. Nothing new.

              As for what a token amount is… let’s says less than 1% of total M3s sold.

              1. SparkEV says:

                I actually agree with this. One would be crazy not to get at least autopilot. If getting smaller battery version, almost everyone will take on option(s) (autopilot, glass roof, etc), and I’d be surprised if many get bare bones version.

        2. JimInAuburn says:

          I have no skin in the Tesla stock game, but I am a reservation holder. I want the SR model, with a premium package. Now it will be early 2019, which will probably be pushed back.

          How many orders a month do you think they could get in mid 2019 for the LR or dual motor option? If they are only planning on 20K a month production, do you think it could be all utilized by the LR and dual motor versions? Why would they produce a SR version and take a spot away from the more profitable LR or dual motor versions?

          And then even if they do start producing the SR RWD versions, any new person ordering a LR or dual motor will jump in front of me and push me back. Or if someone that already owns a Tesla wants a SR RWD car, they will hop in front of me, pushing me back.

          What do you think, maybe 100K people want the SR RWD car? I bet after production of the LR and dual motor cars, they have less than 5000 production spots a month to produce that combination (probably more like 1000 spots). So it would take them two more years to get through all the people that want the SR RWD, that have been waiting for years already. And then if anyone that owns a Tesla orders one, that would push them back more.

          1. pjwood1 says:

            If AWD is a $4-5k option, the hold outs for ~35k will be a larger number. Many of the Tesla owners are aiming for AWD. It manages the torque better, and is bound to be a lot faster.

    3. Get Real says:

      LMAO, the shills, shooters and haters (and not surprisingly a lot of new usernames just suddenly appearing here for the first time from Seeking Liars no doubt-I often wonder if some of them are Russian trolls) whining and sniveling about Tesla doing the smart thing and prioritizing the more expensive/profitable versions first and waiting until their costs are down and scale up before releasing the SR version.

      The funny thing is, I doubt seriously that many of these clowns ever had any intention of actually buying any Tesla.

      Tesla will be fine as a mid-high range BEV company and actually has even more profit potential for RE energy storage going forward.

      Par for the course.

      1. terminaltrip421 says:

        the irony of someone going by ‘get real’ believing commentors here are of the russian (anti)propagandist variety is incredible.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Your naivety is surprisingly high, if you believe that Russian troll farms are not being used to promote the agenda of certain Tesla haters such as Big Oil.

          Do people hire Russian troll farms to promote the Tesla short-seller agenda? I dunno; it seems like a poor return on the investment, to me. But if you look at the absolutely astounding volume of Telsa FUDster posts on Seeking Alpha each and every single day, it’s obvious that a lot of people think it’s worthwhile to spend a lot of time and energy on spreading anti-Tesla FUD! Would it be that much of a surprise to find that some of them have pooled their money to hire a Russian troll farm?

          One thing is certain: It’s no coincidence that there are (as I write this) 233 comments here, and that so many of the the new user names are people who have signed on just to bash Tesla. However, the last time something similar happened, someone said there was a link posted at Seeking Alpha to an InsideEVs news article, so my guess is that has happened again.

          So, Occam’s Razor suggests that there may be no Russian troll farm activity here. But that’s very far from proving there is not!

      2. JimInAuburn says:

        Most of the first time posters are probably reservation holders like me that are pissed off about this and are coming here to vent.

    4. Murrysville EV says:

      Why do you accuse every Tesla critic of being a short-seller?

      1. terminaltrip421 says:

        because they don’t have a firm grasp on the words they use.

        1. People who repeatedly fail to capitalize the first letter of their opening sentences are unequivocally stating their unwillingness to own their thesis. Well done wordmaster.

      2. Spider-Dan says:

        The stock position of Tesla critics is incredibly critical information when judging the value of the words they post.

        However, the stock position of Tesla supporters is totally not a concern and why would you even ask about that?

      3. bro1999 says:

        Because anyone that says anything critical of Tesla HAS to be a shorter. I mean why else would people have a beef with the company?
        It’s not like the company has continually misled customers with missed deadlines, or lied about real world performance of 691HP, or broke promises about full self driving or something.

        Oh wait.

      4. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Murrysville EV accused:

        “Why do you accuse every Tesla critic of being a short-seller?”

        Why is it that the only people accusing me of that are serial Tesla FUDsters?

        Why is it that serial Tesla FUDsters ignore my habit of criticizing Tesla when I think the company deserves it?

        You’d almost think the Tesla Hater cultists weren’t at all interested in honest discussion or debate based on actual facts. 🙄

        1. Spider-Dan says:

          And yet I’ve never seen you accuse Tesla supporters of having money in TSLA. Why do your stock position criticisms only go one way?

          1. bro1999 says:

            What’s the opposite of a TSLA shorter? An Elon fluffer.
            PP is one of the biggest fluffers out there.

  25. Jay says:

    My AWD estimate is also pushed back to Late 2018 (regardless of range) which is a surprise given that a long range AWD would not bring down margins and there have been reports of two batches of AWD VINs that suggested production run AWDs being tested/refined.

  26. David says:

    Scary. Went to the Tesla website to look into how to cancel my reservation and was greeted with this message,

    “Your account isn’t available right now. Try again later.
    Reservation holders can check delivery date estimates here.”

    1. Don’t worry about that. Elon asked Kimball to write Tesla a check, so Kimball told Elon to have SpaceX buy a few million of Tesla 5.3% junk, then Elon told Deepak to approve his expense report and did a cash advance from his AmEx to Kimball to cover that first check.

      It’s in the mail, so your refund will be processable any day now.

      1. Elooney Muskey says:

        How many tens of thousands of model 3 orders were placed by Kimbal from SpaeceX?

      2. Get Real says:

        This is priceless.

        Newest d-bag shorter troll InvestBoulder’s username is a link and when clicked on it goes to….YES–Seeking Liars!

        InsideEvs is being heavily trolled now both new username shorters being excreted from investment gambling sites like Seeking Liars and of course the existing d-bags who continuously carpet-bomb their FUD Seeking Liars BS.

        In other words its a disinformation campaign being waged by short-sellers and other interest opposed to EVs.

    2. Terawatt says:

      It’s just a bug, they’ll fix it with an over the wire update of their web server in 2020…

  27. Peto02 says:

    My delivery window has been pushed back from Late 2018 to Early 2019 :-‘(
    I am so sad as European non-owner reserve holder, 3rd in row in front of Tesla store waiting 2 hours on March 31, 2016.

    1. arne-nl says:

      Mine too. Finally.

      I was wondering when it would happen. Since the whole timeline was pushed back by six months, but my estimated delivery time stayed the same at late 2018.

      If it doesn’t arrive by late 2019, I’ll have to look for alternatives.

  28. Dr. Strange says:

    “It appears as though Day 1 reservation holders are seeing the late 2018 timeline for the standard Model 3, whereas those who reserved on Day 2 are receiving the early 2019 notice.”

    I’m a day-1 reservation holder (RN108502706, if there’s anything to be gleaned from that), and I’m seeing 2019 for the smaller battery.

    1. william b says:

      Ya, me too. I’m non owner, ordered day 1 at night from California, and I’m seeing early 2019 for standard battery.

  29. Another Euro point of view says:

    The problem is not that they need to sell high margin cars to stay alife, that was understood long ago and only some naive thought that Tesla would actually deliver $35K versions in material quantities and early on.
    No, the problem is that they announced $35K Model 3, got 400K reservations based on that base price (of course ! if tomorrow Porsche announces a $35K car, they would also get tons of reservations), then go on the markets raisin capital using those reservation number to brag around. Sorry but that, together with their complete lack of transparency and shady accounting practices makes it in my eyes a company with sleazy business practices. I mean any of his accountants together with all the car industry could tell Musk that no way a $35K Model 3 could be sold at a profit, I don’t buy it a second that he didn’t know what he was doing. And good for him and for Tesla, that is good management, if your clients are made for a large part of gullible idiots then best thing to do is to take it into consideration in your com./ strategy.

    1. bro1999 says:

      Yep. Elon misled likely a large chunk of those that eventually placed deposits on a Model 3 into thinking a $35k 3 would be delivered by the end of 2017. Now a bunch of reservation holders are pissed that turned out to be a bald faced lie.

      But these people probably should have known better, so a 1/2 shame on them for believing Elon.

      1. bro1999 says:

        btw, pissed reservation holders is not #fakenews. They’ve already started cancelling their reservations.

        https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/cancelling-my-reservation.108207/

        1. Ziv says:

          Even though the actual amount of 3 reservation holders is going up? Yawn. The 3 is behind schedule. As most expected.
          It is going to outsell all other BEVs from March moving forward. And maybe in February as well.

          1. Terawatt says:

            World wide? Not even close. The Zoe and the LEAF will be way ahead in global sales at least until June.

            1. ziv says:

              The 3 isn’t even selling overseas so how could it outsell the rest of the pack?
              I thought my point was obviously about the US, but…

          2. bro1999 says:

            What actual proof do you have that shows net Model 3 reservations have gone up from the last official update Tesla gave?

            Let me guess: Elon said it. Lol
            We all know how much value his word holds.

            1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

              Bad as Elon’s hype is, we certainly can trust Elon’s word at least 1000% more that a serial FUDster like you!

              It’s really strange how, when people decide to become a Tesla Hater cultist, as you have, MadBro, they seem to completely forget the value of truth. Trolls like you start lying even when it does not benefit them!

              Very strange and very sad.

  30. Someone out there says:

    Funniest thing in the conference call was probably Elon Musk trash talking other car manufacturers production abilities (while he himself struggles with producing a couple of thousand cars…)

    1. David H says:

      That really was weird. Every time he rambles about that kind of stuff it feels really strange. Like as if he things he is the first person to come up with the idea of more automation. I still remember when he said that Tesla will be ahead of others because of the economies of scale.
      Right, because when Toyota builds a car they walk over to the hardware store and buy stuff for exactly one car. All other manufacturers never thought of that.
      Or automation. VW probably has whole teams dedicated to improve even the tiniest bit about production and they have multiple factories to also radically change one. Like Porsche is planning to do for the Mission E.
      And then his rant on “well, the line should run that fast, the limiting factor should be air resistence.” – I honestly was lost for words when I heard that. What would even be the point of that? Robots also have a limit of how fast they can run. Why should anyone force one line to run twice as fast with massive investments on possibly not even developed robots when they can just as well build two lines?

  31. Forever Green says:

    Tesla is a publicly traded company that has to answer to the shareholders every quarter. There are hundreds of thousands of people around the world who are ready and willing to put down top dollar for the premium package model 3. Why would Tesla produced the base model at this stage in the game where the profit margins are very slim? Tesla is running a business not a charity, and as much as I would like to have my base model 3 this year, I know realistically I’m not going to see that car until sometime after 2020. Those of you who think you’re going to see the base model 3 before 2020 you’ve been been smoking the good one.

    1. bro1999 says:

      Because Elon promised a $35k Model 3 in 2017. That’s why.

      1. Forever Green says:

        bra1999, you may not have been following Elon Musk the way I have, so I’ll fill you in on some things concerning his promises. I can’t think of one promise Elon Musk has made that he has followed through on in the time frame he has given for that promise. He has never been on time with any promise he has made. He is notorious for being months behind and sometimes years behind on his promises. This is new to you, but it’s not new to anyone who knows him. You will get a base model 3, but it will never be when Elon Musk says you will get it. There’s another little problem that Elon Musk has to deal with. There are a lot of people who are screaming at him, insisting that Tesla shows a profit. The quickest path to profitability is to sell the most profitable configurations of the model 3. “Keep hope alive.”

        1. Terawatt says:

          So it’s ok to lie because he is Elon, and we should know that Elon lies.

          What a fantastic reason to justify immoral behaviour.

          The most annoying aspect of it all is that it’s totally unnecessary. Tesla could do the same stuff they are doing but be honest and real. It would cause a lot less grief and not hinder their work, since apparently everyone with an ounce of realism knows full well that the stuff Elon says is going to happen isn’t going to happen in anything like the stated time frame!!

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        bro1999 continued his serial anti-Tesla FUDster campaign:

        “Because Elon promised a $35k Model 3 in 2017. That’s why.”

        Tesla Hater cultists love to accuse Elon and Tesla of making “promises” when they were quite clearly just announced goals. As someone who quite clearly is a “short” investor, MadBro, you ought to be familiar with the disclaimer that every company — including Tesla — puts into its financial outlook statements. For example, the disclaimer that appears in the very first paragraph following the table of contents in Tesla’s most recent annual SEC filing:

        The words “anticipates”, “believes”, “could,” “estimates”, “expects”, “intends”, “may”, “plans”, “projects”, “will”, “would” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, although not all forward-looking statements contain these identifying words. We may not actually achieve the plans, intentions or expectations disclosed in our forward-looking statements and you should not place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements. Actual results or events could differ materially from the plans, intentions and expectations disclosed in the forward-looking statements that we make. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statement…

        Now, MadBro, either you’re lying about not realizing that such forward-looking statements are not “promises”, or else you are an amazingly clueless investor, one who hasn’t bother to do his due diligence when buying stock.

        So which is it? Are you a liar, or are you incredibly clueless?

        1. bro1999 says:

          Only a fool would say Tesla/Elon didn’t lead customers to believe a $35k Model 3 would be delivered by the end of 2017.

          Looking at who I’m responding to, the above statement applies perfectly.

  32. Michael Georg says:

    Great electrical swindle!!!

    $35k fancy car for the masses, maybe someday in 2025 or 2026.

    Elon Musk is a great promissor!!!

    He should pursue a political career!!!

    1. Elooney Muskey says:

      Too bad he wasn’t born in America! He could be the next president. He handily beats Trump in all characteristics!
      Oh wait! He could fake his birth certificate and still be the president.

      1. Bill Howland says:

        Now that you mention it, yes there are similiarities – in Trump’s case he calls it “Truthful Hyperbole”.

        While I’m no fan of Bannon, he did say after 1 month of Trump’s being president, “As far as Trump’s supporters are concerned, namely the reason they voted for him, the Trump Presidency is OVER!”

  33. Asak says:

    Ironically enough, if my reservation slips to 2020 it would actually be for the best. None of my car leases are coming up until that time. Of course I could dump my Leaf “beater”, but it cost so little and is driven so little that it would hardly make sense to replace with a Model 3. Of course there’s the little wrinkle that the tax credit will be long gone by then…

  34. Courtney vegan says:

    I guess I will have to wait for many years for a $35 grand car with 300 mile range and a vegan interior. Plus real seats, I am looking at you bolt seats☹️.

  35. Mark says:

    I know people are mad about this, and if I were in line, I would be too.

    I’m not sure whether Elon really thought he would deliver a $35,000 Model 3 in 2017. But it was brilliant to say so. It got everyone excited. I wonder how many reservations he would have if he instead said that there would be a $45,000 Model 3 in 2018.

  36. Fancy a Bev Mate? says:

    All of this is “music” to my leafs ears 🙂
    will mean the new leaf has even more chance of winning the World and European car of the year award YET again 🙂

  37. TeslaPlease says:

    When Your Production Projections Can’t Be Met…

    If you go back to the reveal of the Model 3, Elon reiterated what the production volumes would be by YE 2017.

    The $35K price was based on Elon’s projections of production volume and production automation.

    Reality in Q1 2018 is a fraction of his original estimates. THIS IS WHY HE CAN’T SELL YOU A $35k MODEL 3.

    Elon is not a liar but simply underestimated the challenge. The worst part of all is the fear that Bob Lutz will be proven right.

    The negativity from the old schoolers has much more to do with them believing Elon is out-of-his-league in the volume manufacturing space,

    1. carl says:

      He IS out of his league in volume manufacturing, the delays/problems with the Model X and Model 3 prove that.

  38. SansIce says:

    You guys are hilarious. The model 3 outsold every other BEV in the US last month and it is in the first few months of production. There will be soon 1 million pre-orders. Tesla can’t keep up with demand. They are clearly going to obliterate every other EV in sales this year. Those are the facts. Get real.

    1. TeslaPlease says:

      You are not hilarious – Bring the Facts

      – The model 3 outsold every other BEV in the US last month – WHERE IS YOUR SOURCE?

      – There will be soon 1 million pre-orders – WHERE IS YOUR SOURCE?

      Get Real…. You can’t even tell us how many reservations have been canceled or placed on hold (waiting for white seats, awd,SR battery).

      When you have some facts, look forward to hearing from you.

      1. SansIce says:

        Source: sales last month – This site – the monthly table that is posted here – do you refute those numbers? talk to Jay Cole

        Yeah – a million is a guess but they were recently adding 1800 reservations a day with a backload of approximately 500K
        500K + 365×1800 = 1.15 million cars by the end of 2018

        https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/253742-tesla-adds-1800-model-3-reservations-per-day-thats-equal-days-production-2018

        1. SansIce says:

          TeslaPlease You have to get out of the weeds and look at the big picture and not be so focused on your friggen white leather seats.
          We are talking about a revolution here.

    2. agzand says:

      The problem with your math is that with current margins, they will go bankrupt before they can build 1 million cars. They need to hike pricees, that will reduce demand to a point where there will be a balance between supply and demand and cars will be profitable.

        1. bro1999 says:

          We don’t need financial analists! :O

        2. agzand says:

          Analyst (even real ones, vs. the one you posted) don’t know the margins for Model 3. Tesla itself doesn’t know it. They are always optimistic. They think costs will drop significantly in the future. But at this time they are actually going higher (base materials are all getting more expensive). I don’t think the methods Tesla is using can result in a $35k profitable car. Their battery assembly is too complicated.

        3. IWuvEwon says:

          Trent Eady is a 22 year old sociology student who has a weird obsession with Elon Musk. Every article he writes is related to Tesla.

  39. Jacked Beanstalk says:

    I figured this would happen. By the time Tesla finally offer a $35K M3 Chevy will have an updated Bolt, hopefully with even more range and performance.

    I sure wish we could combine GM’s production capabilities with Tesla’s design prowess. I’ll buy a Bolt and I’ll love driving it but honestly I’ll feel like a tool driving around in such an ugly car.

  40. agzand says:

    I don’t think they will build a significant number of $35k Model 3s EVER (they may build a few to claim they did it). They will upgrade the range to about 250 miles and price it at $42k or so. The long range will get AWD and price increase to make room for the cheaper model.

  41. EJ says:

    Tesla, for the rich, by the rich, with tax incentives only for the richest buyers purchasing the most expensive models. This is a missed opportunity, and many of the comments here are disappointing, basically ridiculing reservation holders hoping to buy a $35k M3 in late 2017 / early 2018. Many of the reservation holders are (would be ) first time EV buyers who put down their deposits with great enthusiasm sharing a vision of an EV future for a reasonable price that middle class families can afford. The constant delays and misinformation fundamentally erode confidence into the EV ecosystem, beyond Tesla, with the result that many deposit holders will move on and purchase ICE cars. Hopefully, some will consider non-TESLA EVs.

  42. Marty says:

    Could just be that the plans to accelerate production are in place, and will happen soon, and that the majority of sales / profit being in the Long Range version, they may just want to go for it as hard as they can with the long range version first, and because of the sheer number of existing orders plus more coming in, why switch to low profit standard version until positive monthly profitability is sustainabe, even in a month where a switch in the production line to produce base model 3s , still allows Tesla to maintain a positive cash flow.
    Interesting times though, as I originally thought the Tesla S I had ordered in Australia would sell at a certain price, but was double when it eventuated, so I got my deposit back.
    Will it be deja vu on he $1500 deposit I paid for the 3? Will it be $35000 in Australia? will it be $80,000 ? Will it be 2019, which we were indicated?
    I know I do not want a Nissan because of lack of thermal management of their battery, and at present, just enjoying the Volt.

Leave a Reply