Source: Tesla Production For Q3 Expected To Hit 70,000

Tesla Model 3 frame

AUG 27 2018 BY MARK KANE 63

The third quarter of 2018 will be tremendous for Tesla production

After a record of 53,339 electric cars produced during the second quarter of this year, it’s expected that in the third quarter Tesla will make more than 70,000 electric cars.

Most of the production falls on the Model 3. It’s estimated that around 35,000 copies of the cars were already made this quarter and with one month to go (20,000 more at a conservative average of 5,000 a week) it will be over 55,000 total in Q3. Model S and Model X production will add at least another 20,000 we believe (the average in the first half was above 24,700).

According to Electrek’s sources, 47,000 cars were already produced this quarter as of last week. That’s in less than two months (above 850 cars a day, on average). 30,000 of that were Model 3. The pace of Model 3 production has been below 5,000, so the earlier estimations of 6,000 were not necessarily accurate.

If production is between 70,000 and 80,000, then deliveries should be above 70,000 and here is how that would compare to the previous results:

Tesla Model S/X/3 Deliveries (quarterly) – forecast for Q3 2018

The good news is that Tesla apparently decreased labor hours for Model 3 production by 30%, which definitely should help to achieve profitability.

“What I find most encouraging is that Tesla claims to have decrease labor hour for Model 3 production by 30% during the same period, which could mean that even though production has settled in the ~4,000 units per week range, the cost could have improved significantly on a consistent production at this level.”

Source: Electrek

Categories: Tesla

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63 Comments on "Source: Tesla Production For Q3 Expected To Hit 70,000"

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KumarPlocher

This is the kind of thing that I care about. All the speculation and expectations be damned.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

I predict they will hit 69K, give or take 999.
🙂

Kosh

If they go any faster than that, they’ll eat it…..

Mikael

Over 80k is a pass, below is a fail. 5k Model 3 production per week would mean 90k quarters for all three vehicles.

CDAVIS

@Mikael said: “Over 80k is a pass, below is a fail…”
——-

Lol… a massive q/q gain = fail?

Go Fish…

philip d

Give it a rest. After they do reach 90k and then eventually 125k you guys will come up with some other arbitrary hurdle that will equate failure in your minds if they miss it by a few months. Gets so tiring. Must be tiring for you as well to always be picking up those heavy goalposts and moving them.

Magnus H

Tesla’s goal was 50-55k Model 3 in Q3 (it was their guidance). Add to that the 25k they need for X+S to reach their yearly goal.

So 75k-80k is what Tesla has as it’s goal for Q3. It’s not an arbitrary hurdle, it’s what Tesla said one month ago.

antrik

Right. That’s not what the thread starter claimed, though.

Mikael

Who are “you guys”? Avid Tesla and EV supporters and addicts? Fellow Tesla share holders? Or other reservation holders?

By arbitrary you mean Teslas own goals, predictions and guidance?

70 000 produced and probably over 25 000 Model S/X of them would mean 45 000 Model 3 produced in the third quarter. That would be an average production rate of ~3460 Model 3 per week. Would that be a pass for you in the third quarter?

antrik

Right, 70,000 would be somewhat below what they guided; but around 75,000 (50,000 Model 3 and ~25,000 S+X) would be perfectly fine. 80,000 would be the *high* end of their guidance.

Mikael

So 70k = fail, 75k = pass, 80k = pass with marginal, 85k = great.

And then one day in future a 5k per week for a 90k quarter.

J. L. Brown

I think the 70k units estimate is VERY conservative.

Models S and X account for 17k units so far, with two months elapsed and one more to go — so figure an additional 8.5k units. This puts S & X at a total of 25.5k units for the quarter, which is reasonably close to the stated ~100k per year rate goal.

Model 3 is already at 30k units, so 15k per month might seem like a good average rate — but we know Tesla is actively ramping. They have produced more units per week throughout August than they did throughout July, and seem to be on track to produce more per week in September than in either of their prior months. If we guess that July saw 13.5k units produced (~3115 per week, average), then 16.5k in August (~3807 per week average), and we project 20k units in September (~4615 units per week) — then Tesla will be delivering 50k Model 3s, and 75.5k units overall as a minimum.

I tend to be a bit too optimistic, but I hope that Tesla is making more Model 3s than this.

leafowner

I would think the transition to the dual motor and performance versions may slow production a bit as they will be more complex than the limited option LR Model 3’s they were making prior.

antrik

That might very well be part of the reason for the delays in the last two months. Since these variants are in full production now, there is no reason however to expect further delays because of them going forward…

David Green

Sounds familiar… I have been saying this for 2 weeks…

TM3x2 Chris

Sorry, what were you saying for 2 weeks?

David Green

That model 3 production was way below the Bloomberg tracker

TM3x2 Chris

As of today, Bloomberg has the production rate at 4,588 cars a week. If you multiply that by 12 weeks you get slightly over 55k cars. Are you saying Tesla will not produce 55k cars this quarter?

David Green

Yes, but they are showing 38K built in Q3 already, its closer to 31… I think Model 3 production in the last week was below 3K, over the weekend, near 0

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

At this point these production numbers don’t really mean anything if the bottleneck is at customer delivery. No sense breaking the backs of the peeps at the factory if delivery is is slow.

Will

Delivery is not thier fault it’s more he logistics company they contracted

TM3x2 Chris

As far as I can tell, Tesla handles all deliveries without any third-party involvement.
Please clarify what you meant.

David Green

Its their trucking and distribution company is a bit of a mess…

Mikael

If customer delivery were the bottleneck then it would be easily solved by starting to produce and ship units to Europe or China while they build out their US capacity.

David Green

Model 3 is not certified for sale in Europe yet…. AFAIK…

ffbj

I think the 30% reduction in labor hours is a bit misleading if we consider that things were just not being done all that well before.
So we should only see incremental improvements now that they have gotten everything up and running properly.

David Green

Exactly… At the start it was go go go stop stop stop go go go…. Now they have more even flow, but that has been the case since mid Q2,

antrik

Yes, things were not done well before, but getting better. That’s exactly what the 30% improvement says, along with other statements to that effect. Not sure what your point is?..

Bunny

Just nice to see they are really cranking these EV cars out. Call me impressed that their customer base for the higher priced model 3 appears to be quite large.

Tip of the hat, go Tesla!

David Green

48K model 3’s in Q3 has been my guess since the end of June, but with the current news, that may have to revise down. Shorts are reporting supplier problems…

Chris O

Than again, shorts have been known to lie as daily demonstrated by your contributions to this forum.

David Green

Really? Who called the production slowdown 2 weeks ago… ? YUP, shorts…

David Green

Want to see video of all the cars in storage? You can clearly see by the dust on some that they have been there for a while… check out at 4:30, top/center of the screen, electricians can be seen wiring superchargers up to a diesel generator… Yup, Tesla is all about the environment..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvyrBb66Hpo

MDEV

Hey Green, relax, Tesla is a success, focus on the elections better.

Basementman

I actually enjoy hearing the negative slant by David. Both here and on IEVs. Remember, without hearing both sides, you cannot formulate an objective opinion for yourself. The truth always lies somewhere in the middle.

David Green

Exactly Basementman, that is why I listen to both sides as well… The shorts are actually pretty clever in their intel gathering, and photos and video do not lie…

Basementman

While I am extremely pro-Tesla, I like to know the facts of what they are doing right and what needs some work.

David Green

I am neutral Tesla cars, I could say good or bad about them, and my biggest complaints with model 3 quality have been mostly resolved.

I am more on negative Tesla management.

Pushmi-Pullyu

David “Green” said:

“The shorts are actually pretty clever in their intel gathering, and photos and video do not lie…”

You prove exactly the opposite in very nearly every single one of your comments.

Get Real

In carpet-bombing fashion.

Basementman

Meant to say Electrek, not IEVs.

Get Real

Chris O nails it, +1000!

Big Solar

Shorts, they are always accurate. LOL

Will

I’m still estimating 45k -48k model 3 for the q3

David Green

48 was my estimate at the end of June.. Might end up being high if there is indeed a parts shortage

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous
Seven Electrics

When your investors sue you, you’ve already lost, even if the suit is dismissed.

John

When your heart is filled with darkness, you’ve already lost.

Pushmi-Pullyu

But they weren’t able to sue. The judge threw out the case.

Perhaps if you turned down the gain on your Tesla Basher Reality Distortion goggles, you’d be able to see the difference.

David Green

It was not an outright dismissal, but now the plaintiffs have to re-file… A big win for Tesla either way… Tesla does not want to go through trial discovery.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Ah, so when the article says “A federal judge in San Francisco dismissed a securities fraud lawsuit…” that means it wasn’t actually dismissed.

Black is white. Day is night. Tesla is failing, not succeeding beyond the wildest expectations of just a few years ago. Production is falling, not rising.

So “glad” you’re here to give us the Bizarro Tesla basher mis-interpretation of reality. 🙄

Doggydogworld

A dismissal is a dismissal. This wasn’t some technicality, the judge knocked out their main pillar.

These shareholder attorneys mostly blackmail companies into quick settlements. They aren’t really set up for long trials.

Ron M

It will be interesting to see the TM3 for August Insider EV numbers for next Monday. 14,250 for July. I predicted 30,000 TM3 for August on the 4th of July if delivery problems were corrected.

Quebec 100% EV

30,000 model 3 deliveries for August???? Ummm no. I dont even think they have enough delivery centers to achieve that….
If they’re trending towards 50,000 deliveries for the QUARTER then it will definitely be under 20,000 for August. Maybe 17,500 but even that is optimistic.

Speculawyer

Looking at the sales scorecard, it is amazing how the Tesla Model 3 basically doubled plug-in car sales in the USA.

Get Real

Yes Spec and of course the trolls will keep moving their definition of failure as Tesla makes and delivers more EVs and particularly more compelling EVs then any other OEM.

Actually, I could see Tesla making more compelling EVs then ALL the legacy, laggard OEMs combined in the not to distant future.

Maybe the trolls ‘ heads will explode at that point!

G2

Exploding Troll heads- one can only hope

Scott Franco

How is this not amazing?

Pushmi-Pullyu

It is remarkable and amazing!

Too bad the trolls here keep trying to distract us from that reality. Ankle-biters!

George Parrott

Impressive increase. I have a 2015 Model S P85DL with a VIN at 69XXX. Hence it took Tesla 3 YEARS to reach 70,000 total production and now Tesla is on course to produce 70,000 in just one 3 month period. That is really “ramping up” from nowhere to seriously shaking up the established auto industry. And I might note, I take delivery of my 3rd Tesla this coming Saturday with a VIN above 106XXX for just that Model 3 production series.

Bryan

Production numbers be what they may. What I am most impressed with is the sheer number of Model 3s I see everyday running up and down Hwy 85. I cannot count them there are so many. THAT is the most telling tale.

Kay

I’m in Dallas and I see them all the time too. I thought they would be a needle in a haystack but I see 3-5 every day on my commute.

Bryan

I quit counting when I was seeing 20+ each morning and evening while driving home. That’s just model 3s. I can’t count how many Model s and Model X cars come between the 3’s.
So cool isn’t it. It reminds each day that I don’t have one.