Tesla Production Reportedly Close To 1,000 Per Day

OCT 20 2018 BY MARK KANE 29

1,000 cars daily, 7,000 weekly.

In mid-October 2018, Tesla seems to finally be able to maintain the production pace of some 1,000 cars daily (7,000 weekly at 7 days a week).

According to Electrek’s sources, in the past seven days, Tesla produced some 6,800 cars, including 4,800 Model 3. So far this month, production was apparently 18,300 (including 12,200 Model 3).

It’s encouraging to see that Tesla is able to sustain production, which in late June was a peak achievement.

With production capacity at such a level, Tesla should be able to produce at least 90,000 (64,000 Model 3) during Q4, compared to 80,142 in Q3.

Total production of Tesla Model 3 stands at over 100,000 and by the end of this year should be above 150,000.

Source: Electrek

Categories: Tesla

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29 Comments on "Tesla Production Reportedly Close To 1,000 Per Day"

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That’s super positive. When Tesla wins, the entire EV space wins. Nice work Tesla!

I’m particularly encouraged by the midrange trim offering. Tesla’s beginning to listen to their waitlisted less-wealthy customers. Obviously they’re running out of American customers willing to keep up with the $50+k trim production rates. I mean, it has been quite an astounding feat to sell more $50+k cars than friggin’ Corollas for a month or two, but it cannot be sustained forever.

I hope they’ll also drop the silly $5k premium package requirement for these. It’ll all be a function of how many orders they get to the midrange+$5k version (my guess: lots for those guaranteed 2018 delivery, then a drop-off).

Hmmm, my guess is the $5K price of that “silly” PUP (Premium Upgrade Package) is mostly pure profit for Tesla, or at least a lot of it is. No doubt a lot of Model 3 reservation holders are waiting until that really is an option, instead of being mandatory, but they may be waiting awhile.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla puts the Standard Range version into production before making the PUP optional.

All options are high-margin. I don’t think the premium package is higher margin than the larger batteries.

I suspect the only reason why they are introducing smaller battery variants first, is the current cell shortage limiting total production numbers…

Two primary reasons and nothing to do with shortages…
1) Further hopes that $35K reservation holders spend more money on this…
2) Tax credit is gone; Musk even tweeted this is like a $35K Model (and $31K after gas savings)…

Neither of these reasons would explain why they are introducing smaller battery variant first, as opposed to non-premium variant.

I believe you’re right on this; higher than normal profit…

Delivery window for the long-range variants is still 4-8 weeks — no indication that demand is slowing. (And if it was, there are still other demand levers to pull…) So that’s not the reason for introducing the mid-range variant.

They’ve been running close to 1000/day for a while, but with a little different split. Good to see 3 production climbing.

I estimated 60-65k Model 3s this quarter. It will depend on Thanksgiving and Christmas scheduling.

It looks like they were in the mid 4,000 for the first 10-12 days of this month and then they really shot up. I’m hoping for 25,000 this month. I want to see them beat September’s numbers and 75,000 for the 4th quarter.

5300 the last week of September, then a 4500/week rate the first 11-12 days of October, now 4800 the past week.

Early Q2 was ~3800/week rising to ~4400 before the final burst week. It’s a slow grind, but moving the right direction.

Almost 13,000 in the remaining 11 days of October? That’s virtually impossible.

That puts October Model 3 sales likely around the same as August.

Yep, about the same, or even a tick lower. That’s what I’ve been saying for a while…

Cool. Though I still think they will finish under 150k for the year, what with the holidays and all.

Tesla always works extra hard in December. It’s always the peak for the year.

Do they still celebrate Christmas in California?

If California stopped spending on Christmas a recession would hit the USA

I think the recession will be felt more in China than in USA.

by next year, it will be china that feels it.

I plan to. But, unless I’m mistaken, Christmas is actually not half a month long.

Under 150,000 for the year would mean the remaining 10 weeks averaging lower than this past week… Seems a very pessimistic assumption.

I’m expecting 18K Model 3 for October, 22K for November, and 28K for December. Add in a continued 25K for Model S and X combined through the quarter and I think we’ll be seeing 93K total vehicles for the quarter (68K of them Model 3.)

I’d say around 20,000 for October — give or take a thousand or two, depending on how smooth deliveries go.

Not sure about specific numbers for November and December. I was hoping for at least 70,000 in Q4 — but I guess that hinges on how soon cell production can be ramped up… As long as it’s stuck at 20 GWh per year, the necessary rate would only be achievable if *all* production was moved to medium-range…

Are they working 7 days / week. I hope the each worker works only 5 day/week and take a rotation.

7,000 / week is really great.

The GF runs four shifts. Each person works four 12 hour days one week and three the next. Musk talked about the same schedule for Model 3 in Fremont, but I don’t know if that was real or just Musktalk.

Why are they running four shifts if a work day is 12 hours?…

1. In a 2-week period, any given worker works 7 days and 12 hours per day.
2. In order to cover all 14 days, they need 2 shifts.
3. In order to cover all 24 hours in a day, they need 4.

Keep ’em comin’.

And also my Bolt lease expires in April 2020, so I’ll need the TMY to be available by then 😛