Bay Area Bonanza: Tesla Insider Leaks Model 3 Delivery Extravaganza

Blue Tesla Model 3

SEP 21 2018 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 248

It appears Tesla is preparing to deliver an unprecedented number of electric vehicles in the coming days, but there’s more to this story to share.

We’ve been getting more and more indication that Tesla will be going to great lengths to ramp up vehicle deliveries as the quarter comes to an end. It started with a congratulatory email from CEO Elon Musk to employees, as well as a comment by Elon’s brother Kimbal on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” This information came as no surprise since Tesla has historically accelerated deliveries at the end of each quarter. However, now, we’re talking mostly about the Tesla Model 3, which has been in the midst of “delivery logistics hell,” and we’re also looking at the potential for Tesla to push to show a profit.

Fast forward to yesterday, and we started receiving tips from various readers reporting Model 3 holding lots clearing out, trucks full of Model 3s seemingly ready to hit the road, and a multitude of people reporting that they are taking delivery in the coming days. The numbers that we’re seeing don’t tell the whole story yet. We need another week to really get a grasp on the happenings. But, we can tell you that we’re discovering delivery numbers that appear to be off the charts in comparison to what we’ve gleaned in the past.

Now, for what we consider to be potentially huge news.

A trusted source that works at Tesla and requested to remain anonymous contacted InsideEVs with some inside information. Makes sense right? Anyhow, they shared that Tesla Service Center techs are being pulled from their usual duties over the next week or so to help with deliveries. Apparently, Tesla has readied some 7,000 Model 3 vehicles to be delivered just in the San Francisco Bay Area over the course of seven days. We hear that the specific goal is for the automaker to deliver 1,000 Model 3s each day for the last week of the month in the Bay Area alone.

We also received a tip that many of these cars are ready to go and waiting in Richmond, CA at the railyard. We sure wish we would have been aware of this since we were in Richmond just a few days ago at the unveiling of the Audi e-tron. Quite a coincidence for sure. Did Tesla know Audi was holding its massive event in Richmond? Did the automaker hope that attendees would stumble upon the plethora of finished Model 3 sedans? We have no way of knowing any of this for certain, but it’s interesting nonetheless.

Wait … there seems to be even more big news.

In addition to the above reports – and possibly as an accelerated path toward profitability – we were also told that Tesla is prepping thousands of Model S, Model X, and Model 3 vehicles for delivery in China. Not surprisingly, most of the S and X cars appear to be 100Ds, though the Model 3s are primarily single-motor.

The source revealed that these Model S and X vehicles are mostly low-mileage loaners or recent trade-ins from people that have now taken delivery of a Model 3. Reportedly, they have already been sold to Chinese customers. While they may not count as deliveries, it surely looks like a monumental source of additional revenue. Is this an effort by Tesla to double down toward a goal of profitability? Not only is Tesla delivering a ton of Model 3s in the U.S. and some in Canada, but also moving high-priced used S and X vehicles out at the same time. The Tesla employee said that the Model 3 vehicles going to China are to be used as showroom vehicles and/or to train Service Center personnel.

Again, we’d like to reiterate that although our data collection shows trends that tend to correlate well with these happenings, we can’t say for sure yet how many vehicles Tesla will deliver this month, nor do we have any indication that the automaker will or will not show a profit. A bit more information leads us to believe that if Tesla doesn’t hit profitability this quarter, next quarter could likely be the breaking point. We were told that the same situation is already planned to happen at the end of December, and Service Center employees were made aware that Tesla will need even more help to get cars delivered at that time.

Do you have any inside information about this? Does anyone live near the Richmond, CA railyard who’s willing to take a drive over and take pictures and ask questions? What’s your Model 3 delivery projection for September? Is profitability truly on the horizon?

Stay tuned in the coming weeks as we report U.S. EV sales. In the meantime, leave us your thoughts in the comment section below.

TESLA MODEL 3

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2. Tesla Model 3
Range: 310 miles; 136/123 mpg-e. Still maintaining a long waiting list as production ramps up slowly, the new compact Tesla Model 3 sedan is a smaller and cheaper, but no less stylish, alternative, to the fledgling automaker’s popular Model S. This estimate is for a Model 3 with the “optional” (at $9,000) long-range battery, which is as of this writing still the only configuration available. The standard battery, which is expected to become available later in 2018, is estimated to run for 220 miles on a charge. Tesla Model 3 charge port (U.S.) Tesla Model 3 front seats Tesla Model 3 at Atascadero, CA Supercharging station (via Mark F!) Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 The Tesla Model 3 is not hiding anymore! Tesla Model 3 (Image Credit: Tom Moloughney/InsideEVs) Tesla Model 3 Inside the Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 rear seats Tesla Model 3 Road Trip arrives in Tallahassee Tesla Model 3 charges in Tallahassee, trunk open.

TESLA MODEL 3 PERFORMANCE

Tesla Model 3 Performance - Dual Motor Badge
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Tesla Model 3 Performance Tesla Model 3 Performance Tesla Model 3 Performance Tesla Model 3 Performance Tesla Model 3 Performance - Midnight Silver Tarmac Motion Tesla Model 3 Performance - Midnight Silver Tarmac Motion (wallpaper 2,560x – click to enlarge) Tesla Model 3 Performance - White Interior - Wide Tesla Model 3 Performance - White Interior - Touchscreen

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248 Comments on "Bay Area Bonanza: Tesla Insider Leaks Model 3 Delivery Extravaganza"

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Taylor Marks

Wait – you think Tesla won’t be profitable in Q3? That would be quite bad… Musk has done nothing to hedge for that possibility. Would that lead to the stock falling, or is a Q3 loss already priced in?

bro1999

Musk promised Tesla would be profitable in Q3, so if they aren’t in the black, it would certainly be a big miss. The timing of the CAO’s resignation last month raises even more eyebrows now. Sounds like Tesla is doing whatever it will take to put a black number in the profit column for Q3. Perhaps the now ex-CAO wasn’t willing to do what Elon wanted accounting wise.

floydboy

I don’t blame him. Elon wanted him to show that the Bolt was selling for big profits.

Nicholas Kelischek

Bolt ? That’s a car made in low volumes by Chevrolet. Actually, most of is made by LG (Korea)

Vexar

Well, at least they won’t have to add his severance to the bottom line, since he resigned! I have no idea why you’re getting downvoted.

Maybe he’s getting downvoted for suggesting some kind of accounting chicanery was happening, when the person in question made it clear that wasn’t the case.

bro1999

accounting chicanery – see Q3 2016 earnings report.

Get Real

“Chicanery”, LMAO.

It would be more accurate to get a Shaman to read chicken bones and make a prediction then it would to listen to obviously feels threatened by Tesla’s rapid progress and GM Stealership employees like MadBro’s anti-Tesla FUD.

Timmy

What?!? I *think* I agree with you, but really.

Stan1

“accounting chicanery – see Q3 2016 earnings report.”

Pretending Tesla isn’t real doesn’t help GM at all.

bro1999

You’d have to have some pretty damn good reasons to turn down all those stock options!

John

In other news, GM’s stock is really taking off… (probably from all the Bolt sales)

Nix

like being hired somewhere else that also gave him stock options? *shrug*

John

I do. It’s not the message, it’s the messenger.

REXisKing

More likely an immoral short play of harassment of employees?

CDAVIS

@bro1999 said: “.. blah blah blah…Tesla … big miss… CAO’s resignation… blah blah…”
—————

lol…

Please nobody let @bro1999 know that Tesla is now sufficiently established and successful that @bro1999’s daily anti-Tesla comments have finally attained some legitimate value as comedic lol content. There is real value in that. Scientific studies suggest that one good laugh a day is good for your health.

For “real” Tesla insight …

A great read published in 2012 by a very insightful Adam Hartung:

“Why Tesla Is Beating GM, Nissan and Ford… As the big car companies point out limits to electric vehicles, Tesla keeps making them better and addresses market limitations… Meanwhile, the upstart [Tesla] keeps plugging away at solving problems. Each month, quarter and year the new entrant learns how to make its products better. It learns from the initial customers – who were easy for big companies to deride as oddballs – and identifies early limits to market growth. It then invests in product improvements, and market enhancements, which enlarge the market…” source:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamhartung/2013/06/28/why-tesla-is-beating-gm-nissan-and-ford/#21b434ab7de8

Get Real

LMFAO on that one CDavis!

David Wolff

Tesla just ate $5 billion of Legacy Auto’s lunch….in one quarter. How soon before heads roll, layoffs happen, factories close. I wonder who is first to fall to this disruption?

So you understand the math, it’s looking like 25 to 30 billion that a year ago went to legacy…will go to Tesla over the next 5 quarter reports. That is a LOT of money.

Terawatt

It sure is. But Tesla does need to show they can balance the great inflow of money with the so far even greater outflow. They have many big investments on their roadmap. So their operations must be profitable to finance it. Or they’ll have to flip flop again and have another capital round. I think it’ll be the latter, but not until 2019. If things go well this quarter and next, they might say to investors “we can manage fine without raising capital, but we can better exploit our lead if we raise more capital and up the pace further”. And there may be truth to that.

Robert Weekley

Per – “we can manage fine without raising capital, but we can better exploit our lead if we raise more capital and up the pace further”. That would likely be a smart thing to do, particularly if Q3 Does go in the Black, and Q4 – Even More Solidly! Particularly if they can get Production to 8,000 Model 3’s and over 2,000 S + X, Per Week, and get Sales Up, with Smoother High Volume Deliveries – Shrinking the “In Transit” Figure to about 4-5 Days Production, tops, before they ask for Money!

Seven Electrics

Tesla has been leaking like a sieve lately, including this current story. You have to ask yourself why Elon authorized them. My hunch is that it’s an attempt to offset bad news.

CDAVIS

@Seven Electrics said: “… My hunch is that it’s an attempt to offset bad news.“
—————-

Which bad news is that?:

That Tesla Model 3 is selling 14x the Chevy Bolt (aka Tesla Killer).

or

That in North America Tesla is selling as many cars as BMW.

or

That Tesla’s car units produced and delivered in Q4 will likely be 2x prior Q.

or

That the 2018 Tesla Model 3 received a perfect five-star safety rating from the National Highway and Safety Administration. “Perfect” meaning overall and in every single category tested.

Ziv

Tesla has $1.7BN in debt coming due this year and they have been losing a lot of money steadily. If they can’t start getting profitable soon they could be in trouble because they can’t keep selling stock indefinitely. Tesla needs to start making money and the 3 should be able to do that for them. If it doesn’t, they have a big problem.
I think this is the quarter they move out of the red and into the black. Hopefully.

Dam

for sure if they loose another $500-800MM, there will be no Q1 2019, thing could unravel damn fast as they dont seem to be legally able to recapitalize & debt is junk.Telsa buyers (cars wise) are taking a huge risk

CDAVIS

@Dam said: “…they [Tesla] dont seem to be legally able to recapitalize…”
—————-

lol

Stink of TSLA shorts is distinctive… jimmy cheese.

CDAVIS

@Dam said: “…Telsa buyers (cars wise) are taking a huge risk…”
———

Biggest risk Tesla car buyers are taking is that they will be afflicted with TSS ( Tesla Snob Syndrome). It’s a serious condition whereby after owning a Tesla you know you have the best car made and all other cars seem hopelessly obsolete. Often results in garage orphaning formally beloved ICE cars… a terrible thing.

Here is what taking an ownership risk looks like:

Investing in Jim Chanos Kynikos Associates’ short funds… that’s true risk taking. Under the management of Jim Chanos those short hedge funds have been on a serious protracted loosing streak:

Alibaba: (forced to cover exit with huge $$$ gut-punch)

Dunking Brands: (yes jimmy shorted Dunkin Donuts! Dunkin stock has gone up significantly after jimmy shorted Dunkin).

Tesla: ( jimmy has wrapped his reputation around his TSLS short position… massive miscalculation)

CDAVIS

Earlier this year I predicted in an INSIDEEVs comment that Jim Chanos Kynikos Associates would before 2018 year-end be forced to cover exit their Tesla short position (same as jimmy was forced to cover exit Alibaba) at amassive $$$ loss.

Time will tell…

Dsm

In all likely need Chanos and shorts will have an early. No company looses that many exec if they are profitable

EVFan

Shorts go to any extend to pull down stock by spreading fake news.

Robert Weekley

“as they don’t seem to be legally able to recapitalize” – Detailed Explanation on that would maybe give you a chance to show your intentions, and knowledge. Leaving that hanging is not great open-ended pitching of “Issues!”

Dsm

If they could they would have already

Mikael

You only need one “M” for Mega/million.

Robert Weekley

Maybe he simply wanted him to help Actually get his “Hands Dirty” and “Deliver Cars to Customers” to “Help Make it Happen?” Lots of our “Engineers” Seem to Hide from the factory Floor, in their Ivory Towers, so – it is not so strange that a Money Man might not want to get “All In” on making the Money Flow! After All – Counting Beans – is now a Keyboard Exercise!

marshall

My thought has been that Tesla will either just miss making a profit, or just barely make a profit this quarter. The fourth quarter is going to be the longer term test for Tesla.

If Tesla can put the paint issue to bed, reduce the cost of the battery and improve auto-pilot going forward, then no one is going to touch Tesla for the next two years, since there really isn’t any competition for the model 3.

TJKR

If they sell 70K+ vehicles Q3 and their battery business shows slight growth, I am guessing their revenue will be in the realm of $5B, maybe $5.5B. Last quarter they recorded revenue of $4B with expenditures of $4.7B. If they can keep the expenditures at Q2 levels, they’ll be in the black, if not their stock will take a huge hit. At this point, they just need to show positive earnings.

Bill

Honestly, they could miss on profit and the stock could still do well. Really depends on the details. If their miss is as big as last quarter, then yeah, they’re in trouble. But if they end up getting close to profitability or posting positive cash-flow, they’ll be fine. For instnace, if they post a <$100M loss paired with positive cash-flow and ~100% YoY revenue growth, I still suspect the stock will jump.

Henry

At $60K ASP, the Model 3 will rake in at least $3B in Q3 (conservative estimate of 50K unit, the low end of 50K-55K projection from Q2). In Q1 when the Model 3 only sold a handful, total revenue was $3.4B (Q2 $4B). So for Q3, total revenue should easily exceed $6B (estimate range $4.7B-$6.8B, $6.1B average).

TJKR

I hope you are right. $6B will indeed cause the epic short burn of the century. Q3 should be good overall but I am looking forward to Q4 when historically, most EV’s are sold due due to expiring tax credits.

antrik

It will only cause a stock price jump (and potentially short burn) if it’s higher than expectations. Since expectations seem to be around $6 billion already (6,067 seems to be current Wall Street consensus), it sounds like most of the gains might already be priced in.

Doggydogworld

6B would disappoint investors. Most investor models have revenue in the 6.3-7.0b range. Even the bears on Seeking Alpha (I’m talking about real bears who do actual analysis, not the uber-bear lunatic fringe).

Gherkin

I’d be more conservative with the ASP and increase the number of deliveries is my guess. $55k and maybe 55k sold. However they did introduce the performance model three this month or the quarter

Nix

It is the one time losses that are hard to predict. Last quarter the had one time losses for a number of things including layoffs in solar sales that showed up only for that quarter. Stuff like that makes your math iffy

antrik

70,000 vehicles seems way too low. Going by the data published by Electrek, Model 3 production should reach ~52,000 — but with the ongoing delivery push hopefully reducing some of the backlog, sales could easily be >55,000. Model S + X production should be some 27,000 – 28,000, and sales at least as large. With ~$60,000 average price for Model 3 and let’s say $90,000 for S/X, along with other revenues from Energy etc., we should likely see >$6 billion total revenue — which is in fact what Wall Street is expecting currently.

Expenditures should also be significantly higher though, with all the extra parts and raw materials needed, service expansions etc. — so profit is not guaranteed. (Wall Street consensus expects a tiny loss.)

Brian

They can miss and only loose stock value for a couple of days, then it will back to where it was once people look into the details. All these guys talking about stock on this site are completely full of it.

ModernMarvelFan

If they can’t make a small profit, then something must be wrong at Tesla with this high average selling price of Model 3.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Hmmm, I think the rapidly rising volume of sales should contribute more to profitability than the slight rise in average selling price. With increasing volume of manufacturing, the “economy of scale” means the unit cost to produce a car should have dropped quite a bit.

But I could be wrong.

antrik

The rise in average selling price is not “slight”. According to Troy’s estimations, it has risen from $55,000 to $60,000 — almost 10%. Achieving a similar improvement in gross revenue through production optimisation is seriously hard. (Though from the low starting point before Q3, it should indeed be quite significant as well…)

Knut Erik Ballestad

You don’t have to reduce the variable cost at all to reap benefits of increased production volume.
– because increased production volume by itself means a *considerably* lower fixed cost per vehicle.

I don’t know how large the fixed cost part is out of total cost, but just by producing double the amount of cars compared to the previous quarter should *halve* the fixed costs per vehicle!
Also, (long-term) an increase in production volume should make it possible with at least a slight reduction in variable cost per vehicle.

antrik

Sure, economies of scale are well known. Still, you have to fight for every percent of margin. Raising average selling price on the other hand is almost like a free lunch…

Terawatt

Not if price increases because people are buying something else. This isn’t people paying more for the same products, and therefore not a free lunch. But I do agree margins are likely higher on dual motor and, especially, the performance version.

Brian

Future track mode and future autonomy are already built in the cars cost and are as close to a free lunch for Tesla as possible.

antrik

AIUI “track mode” will be included in the “performance upgrades” package, along with various physical upgrades — so it’s roughly in the same range as other options. (Generally assumed to be about 50% margin.)

Autopilot on the other hand is indeed a virtually 100% margin option…

Robert Weekley

Paint – is one idea, with it increasing its Selling Price, it should be as close to a free lunch in the Margin aspect, as anything else, for each car that still orders the more expensive paints.

antrik

The paint options actually incur real costs. There is probably some margin on them, but it’s far from 100%.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…increased production volume by itself means a *considerably* lower fixed cost per vehicle.”

Yeah, that’s my point. Even if Tesla doesn’t get significantly lower unit costs from its parts suppliers, the cost for such fixed expenses as building and maintaining the production equipment, keeping the lights on and the air conditioner running in the factory, and to some extent workers’ salaries, will all be divided among a lot more cars as the volume of production increases. (Running the line faster means they’ll likely have to hire more employees to run the line, but the increase in employees won’t be nearly as rapid as the increase in production speed.)

Lower unit costs from higher volume production means a higher profit margin. That’s called the “economy of scale”.

Doggydogworld

Higher volume will reduce fixed costs by ~3000/car this quarter and the quasi-fixed cost of labor perhaps $2000/car. Higher ASP will help almost the same amount.

This is the last quarter of low hanging fruit, though. Fixed costs won’t drop much further. Labor productivity gains will be a slow grind. I suspect scrappage cost is still high, if so that’s the area to look for big gains going forward.

They need to take another $5-6k out of each car before they can sell SR+PUP in volume, assuming a 50% EAP take rate. Take rate is much higher for LR, but IMHO SR customers are more price sensitive.

antrik

Projection was 15% gross margin on Model 3 in Q3… That would be about $9,000 per car. Assuming 50% average margin on options, that means any configuration starting at around $42,000 should already be able to generate a positive margin…

Doggydogworld

50% is just a tile of thumb. Tesla claims 2170s cost a little over $100/kWh. At $120 the LR “option” is about 65% margin. EAP is 100% margin. P version upgrade is close to 100%. PUP is probably 50% as well as the performance package, bigger wheels, etc. Do all the math and COGS for a $35k base model would be ~46k at 50-55k units per quarter.

EAP take rate for SR version is very important. SR+PUP+EAP is $46k msrp. Maybe they make EAP mandatory for the first SRs (since “everyone buys it anyway”) and do a special deal price of 44k.

Terawatt

10% is indeed slight compared to the volume increase of several hundred percent.

antrik

We are talking about profitability, not revenue. The improvement in profitability from the large volume increase is probably on a similar order as that from $5,000 improvement in average price.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Oh, I think Tesla will show more than just a slight profit — on paper. The problem is that they’re probably going to have to juggle some things to make it look like they’re more profitable than they really are. As they say: “Robbing Peter to pay Paul.” For example, the strategy of selling off their “inventory” cars which are used as demo and service loaner vehicles, as described in this article. If they sell most of those off, they’ll just have to replace them next quarter, which will cut into that quarter’s revenue.

The last time Tesla showed a quarterly profit, they did this same sort of accounting juggling act. In fact, at that time Elon admitted they were putting off some needed maintenance and some one-time expenses until the next quarter, to help achieve profitability for the quarter.

I think we’d all be happier if Tesla was run by someone more interested in steering a steady course and keeping an even keel, rather than tacking furiously trying to catch random gusts of wind.

(Was that enough cliches in one comment? 😉 )

antrik

I wouldn’t call it “accounting juggling”, since it’s things that make an actual difference to the financial situation, not just on paper. (There are some other revenue streams that can be somewhat dispatched like that, such as sale of ZEV credits.)

Since the situation is quite certain to further improve in Q4, shifting some revenues to Q3 shouldn’t be a problem. (And it doesn’t hurt the company’s long-term prospects either way.)

Terawatt

Of course selling demo cars one quarter to replace them the next does NOT improve finances, but it DOES make it look like the first quarter was better. It’s practically the definition of accounting juggling – making finances look better than they actually are.

Robert Weekley

Or – Selling Model S and Model X Demo Cars, but Replacing them with Model 3 Demo Cars, might be a whole other Juggle! Considering – Tesla is still selling The Model S and X, and they were really just meant to get them up to a level to make the Model 3, it is an Interesting idea, at least!

antrik

It doesn’t improve the balance in the long term; but it *does* improve the short-term cash position — which apparently is what people are most concerned about.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“I wouldn’t call it ‘accounting juggling’, since it’s things that make an actual difference to the financial situation, not just on paper.”

If you look at it on the basis of annual finances, which is the proper way to do it, then shifting expenses from 3rd quarter to 4th quarter doesn’t help at all. It’s just juggling the books to make one quarter appear more profitable than it really is.

I agree that Tesla will likely be able to absorb losses easier in the 4th quarter than the 3rd, since volume of production and sales will almost certainly continue to grow rapidly. But that doesn’t in any way refute my point that artificially shifting expenses from the 3rd quarter to the 4th is just showing a paper improvement in profitability — not a real one.

Robert Weekley

In Q3 they are still not really ‘Smooth’ and ‘Steady’ in Model 3 Production, as they seem to be in Model S and Model X Production, at this point, but they are getting there. Also – Selling cars at 4-5x the rate they have in past years, is a new experience for them, and Q3 is still Training Ground for making that happen Smoothly, and likely – so will Q4 be, to some extent!

Catching up on ‘In Transit’ Cars and converting more of those to actually – ‘Sold’ will be a big boost, as well! Using Existing Owners to help Educate New Buyers, is something I said some time back, in that a ‘Tesla School’ Should operate in conjunction with the Tesla Store! The School could be staffed by Company Reps, and Owners, as ‘Teachers’!

antrik

It’s not all about appearances. Having more cash in your account in the short term is a very real improvement in the financial situation.

Terawatt

Hear hear!

Robert Weekley

“(Was that enough cliches in one comment?)” OK! (Real Men Don’t Eat ‘cliches’!”)
🙂

David Wolff

Tesla has PLENTY of ZEV credits to turn in and will EASILY show profit this qtr…EASILY.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Correct me if I’m wrong, but Tesla can’t “turn them in” for money, as though they were tokens at a casino. Tesla can only profit on ZEV credits by selling them to other auto makers.

Robert Weekley

Yup! Like Real Estate – You got it – Who wants to buy it? Needs a Buyer for the Seller to make the deal!

Euro point of view

There is now competition because there is no demand for sporty electric sedans .

Steve and Eric updated article to clarify. Intended to say we do not have information regarding profitability. Not to imply that they will or will not be profitable. Sorry for confusion!

What we do know is that we are expecting a heck of a quarter for delivery numbers. As EV advocates, thats what is important to us.

Looking like the biggest month yet for Tesla and EV sales in North America.

bro1999

Tesla hit its biggest delivery number in its history last quarter…and they still lost over $700 million dollars.
I wonder how much in ZEV credit sales they will be able to bank for Q3. They must be swimming in ZEV credits with all the 3 sales.

Vexar

The ZEV credits last quarter were zero, as I recall. I’d love it if the credits were non-transferrable between badges (not merely companies). It would kill off certain companies in the market, like Hummer.

Get Real

Yeah, MadBro forgets that his Employer in GM is making and selling just enough Bolts to cover GM’s ZEV status so they don’t have to buy credits from Tesla any more.

Oh, and they are purposely not making or selling any more Bolts then they have to under ZEV as Musk predicted.

floydboy

Exactly! Hence my dig at bro1999 about the Bolt’s profitability.

Pushmi-Pullyu

That’s an exaggeration, altho possibly only a mild one. The Bolt EVs which GM sells in S. Korea, for example, don’t earn GM any ZEV credits. (Nor do the few sold in Europe as the Ampera-e.) But certainly most of the Bolt EV production goes to sales in CARB states where they will indeed earn GM credits.

antrik

Since Korea has *huge* incentives, they can probably sell the Bolt there at a price that is profitable even without ZEV credits… The result is similar.

Knut Erik Ballestad

They could do that in Norway as well, but don’t anyway!

antrik

Well, they kinda do, after the huge price increase for the “Opel” variant… Though it’s true that they still aren’t delivering nearly enough to satisfy demand.

Terawatt

They don’t. Opel stopped the sale long ago and you can’t buy it except as a used car. And those who bought it (signed the purchase contract) haven’t got it. Many have cancelled and some may eventually get a car, or will have to settle with Opel for their breach of contract. I see one every now and then, but that was the case a year ago as well.

antrik

I guess it’s the same as with the infamous Kia Soul: it’s being “sold” in EU countries to fulfil fleet emission quotas, and then exported as “used” to Norway. Several EU countries are getting somewhat meaningful (albeit not huge) sales of Ampera-e on paper, last I saw.

Knut Erik Ballestad

It’s basically *impossible* to buy an Opel Ampera in Europe….

Rolando

Because Chevy has no dealership in Europe after selling Opel/Vauxhall to PSA, and PSA want to sell “French cars” not Chevy Bolt.

Terawatt

No. Opel has it’s own dealerships (dealerships in Europe are different; in Norway the dealer in one city have Opel and another brand, in another city the dealer has Opel and a different brand) and seldom with any other GM brands represented.

In Norway the distributor (the company with the exclusive right to buy new cars for import directly from the manufacturer, the dealerships’ supplier) has stopped all sales of Ampera-e. It really doesn’t exist anymore.

Get Real

I consider it emblematic of the future as one legacy, laggard LICE company pulls out of the Western world’s largest auto market at the same time as the demand for compelling EVs there is going through the roof and leaving Tesla as the greatest American beneficiary of this rapid transition from LICE to EVs.

Terawatt

Ampera-e doesn’t exist. There was a trickle initially but it isn’t on sale anymore and most who bought it hasn’t got it.

BroncoBet

What is wrong with GM making BEV’s and not paying Tesla? That is the aim of the program, there are lots of supply of ZEV’s so the price will go down, maybe $900?

Pushmi-Pullyu

There’s nothing at all wrong with that. What we’re complaining about is that GM isn’t selling significantly more Bolt EVs than they need to satisfy their own need for ZEVs. There is a much bigger demand for the Bolt EV than GM is supplying. There is at least a lot of unmet demand in S. Korea and Canada, if not also in non-CARB States of the U.S.

The situation in Europe… I dunno if GM would be able to sell in quantity there or not. The body style of the Bolt EV should do better in Europe than here in the U.S., but there are certain barriers to GM selling cars in Europe — some financial, some cultural, some due to the bad reputation GM cars earned in the 1970s and 1980s — which GM has not been able to overcome.

antrik

FWIW, I’m seeing a bunch of Cadillacs and Chevy’s around here… Not huge, but they do exist.

MTN Ranger

Hummer hasn’t sold any vehicles since 2010 when GM closed them down.

Get Real

Which is a very good thing.

antrik

The purpose of the ZEV program is not to shut down particular badges: it’s to improve the overall situation. Trading schemes like these make sure that a particular total goal is achieved, while letting the market decide how to achieve it most efficiently. The environment doesn’t care whether all badges sell a uniform 5% EVs, or some sell 100% and other 0%…

Matthew Kennel

It should work the other way—a cap and trade. You need to buy a permit to sell an ICE vehicle with MPG below a certain value. Permits can be sold by the state, and ‘manufactured’ by selling a ZEV vehicle.

antrik

Isn’t that pretty much what the ZEV program amounts to?…

Counterpoint

The key factor is where those expenses are going. At the end of last quarter, Tesla was selling 6000 Model 3s a month. Now, they’re easily selling double that (and close to triple for last month). So it would seem likely that the extra expenses were made to get the line running faster and more smoothly, considering there has clearly been a change for the better in production. And if that’s where expenses are going, then they are not only reasonable, but responsible and necessary.

jack

Why exactly are you hanging around this forum if you are such a EV/Tesla hater? Plenty of ICE car forums for you to get upvotes. Also just wanted to point out that your knowledge about EV’s and how company finances work is at the very best amateurish.

John

Yeah, I agree. Tesla should likely start modeling themselves after General Motors.

Rolando

And hire Lutz as consultant for this modeling ….

REXisKing

Looks like Tesla is filling all delivery pipelines with vehicles.
So, that’d be how you’d play it for profitability.

Speculawyer

Their revenue numbers are going to be astounding. These are probably averaging more than $60K per car. That’s half a billion dollars right there.

BroncoBet

$60K a 3 the average vehicle price would be much higher.

Some Guy

I don’t think that there are 7 k vehicles sitting in the mentioned lot for this delivery bonanza right now. The recent story about lots clearing out correlate to massive amounts of trailers full of Teslas heading everywhere else in the US and also Canada (e.g. Vancouver). That bay area push is likely involving a large amount of cars straight from the factory that will be manufacturerd over the course of the next days. The transport can be done in a short time without delay, with trailers going back and forth.
Thus, the number of cars in transit on October 1st, 0:01 a.m. will be minimized as much as possible. Would not be surprised if the stores are open until midnight.
But another thought: If after all the recent deliveries that have been made in the region so far, Tesla can still deliver 7 k in a single week in the bay area (and all LR, dual motor or Performance versions nonetheless), which they have practically been flooding right from the beginning, some other manufacturers surely have to start wondering about their future. Demand must be through the roof, and the 35k version is not available until mid 2019!

Yes, and also end of quarter push always focuses on the West coast. This tracks with the end of quarter sales for past years. Time from production to delivery is much faster.

So this isn’t unusual. The scale of it is what stands out.

REXisKing

I think it’s something like 50% of American cars sold, are sold in California.

morrisg

No, USA yearly total is around 17 million. Check GoodCarBadCar for CA sales volume, it’s way smaller than 50%.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I’m guessing you mean 50% of cars sold in the U.S. by Tesla?

That used to be the case; I’m not sure it still is.

antrik

With Model 3, the total is way more than 50% right now… But for S+X, it has been way less than 50%.

Nix

I’m guessing he means that half of all EV’s sold in the US are sold in California:

“Electric Vehicle Market Share for California

With EV sales market share hovering around 50 percent of the entire US, California is key to EV adoption in the US.”

http://evadoption.com/ev-market-share/ev-market-share-california/

DL

yes it certainly looks so. I had a delivery appointment for some time now, but I got a vin assigned only a week ago and am getting the car in 6 days (12 miles from the factory). so it looks like it was planned for production just last week, and deliberately so. and there are tons of people who seem to have been scheduled in last 2 weeks of september.

But anecdotally, this also seems to pretty much clear out the “big wave” of the June and perhaps part of July orders, with any reservation date (or even without), in the Bay Area. The local LR reservation pool seems to be coming to an end. which means AWD orders will be only fed by the local new orders, until SR comes.

But the rest of US and Canada still seem to have quite a bit of LR reservations waiting. Still though, i guess by the end of November they will be gone too.

Bottom line, the local pool delivery push seems to be a one-time trick for Tesla to exploit. Q4 will have to resolve any long distance delivery issues in honest to maintain the pace.

Some Guy

I’m pretty sure they will do the exact same thing again around Christmas time. Just with more cars involved. Many a Model 3 buyer will drive the new car around and when friends and co-workers see it they might want to have one, too, thus creating more demand (now that reservations are no longer needed, and one can switch right to the configurator).

DL
Well. I certainly hope it will pick up, just saying that reservations for LR seems to be worked through with this very push in the bay. For argument’s sake though. June, when they opened config to everybody with reservation (but not everyone without), has 923 AWD configs (as sampled by Teslike from TMC). August has only 152 configs reported (as of today), that is reservations + no reservations together. September, of which 2/3rds are gone, has only 27 to date. I myself am of the end-of-June config pile. I don’t remember anyone from the Bay on TMC with a reservation reporting they were still waiting for a delivery date. In fact, I saw some no-reservation August orders reporting being filled as well in September. Like i said, anecdotally. I think once annoyances of wait and some chaos are things of the pasts, a lot of people might be tempted before the tax credit expires. However, my config is now priced +$2700 compared to my June’s order, – lifetime premium connectivity. 63 to 85 k (with taxes) for a compact sedan is a big weight to lift even for a Bay Area resident otherwise already accustomed to incomprehensible cost of living.… Read more »
Doggydogworld

Great info DL, thanks!

Nix

You should talk to troy and have him explain to you how fewer people are using the spreadsheet, so relying upon absolute numbers is a fatal mistake.

Nix

The LR sales pool has only just begun. Right now ONLY people who have bought LR’s are those who want to buy (not lease), want the PUP package, are willing to buy an LR without a test drive of an LR from Tesla, and have been willing to put down a large non-refundable deposit without a firm delivery date.

People who want any combination of one or more of these things so far have NOT been able to purchase an LR:
1) BMW, Audi, and Mercedes lease over 50% of their cars. https://www.edmunds.com/about/press/automotive-lease-volume-reaches-record-high-in-2016-according-to-new-edmunds-report.html
2) Model3tracker.info had the PUP package as the preference of about 60% of buyers.
3) Only 16% of car buyers purchase without a test drive. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2014/04/25/car-buyers-flunking-their-test-drives-stats-show-heres-how-to-do-it-right/#532a926235e1
4) By far, the vast majority of the mass market in the United States purchases with a firm delivery date, and without a deposit.

The mass market for the LR (even in CA) has not even begun to be satisfied.

Doggydogworld

I test drove an LR over a month ago.

I don’t think forced-PUP is costing them many early customers. Leading is a big deal, though.

EVFan

Good point yes when Lease starts then we can see demand spikes.

pjwood1

Story: “Tesla has readied some 7,000 Model 3 vehicles…. waiting in Richmond, CA at the railyard. We sure wish we would have been aware of this since we were in Richmond just a few days ago at the unveiling of the Audi e-tron:

This would cartoon really well, and say so much.

Vexar

Take a road trip on I80 this week. I wager a fistful of beef jerky you pass a trailer full of Tesla cars being taken to delivery centers. Tesla has hundreds of delivery trailers in service.

SteveSeattle

I have spotted 3 transporters taking M3 a toward Vancouver BC this week. The Canada numbers could be impressive

Matthew Kennel

Perhaps the reason is very simple: there is a backlog of vehicles in the delivery process and the bandwidth to handle them is lower outside the bay area. Let those buffers drain, while selling to the bay area where the latency is lowest and delivery productivity the highest.

I think in the next quarter they should ship a tremendous number to the NYC area—monopolize a train—so the financial people see how many there are on the road.

Mugur George Ionescu

Wonderful news !

Joel B

I wouldn’t entirely say they are useless exercises. It’s helping them identify bottlenecks, and helping them discover how to best handle them before becoming entirely backed up.

For example, let’s say they spike up production by 20% for a few days. What starts to bottleneck? Something in the delivery process maybe? Is it getting the parking lot organized where they are loading cars? Is it the time they have to spend telling each customer about the car? Or maybe it is something else. It’s better to work it out with a bit of breathing room before the factory permanently cranks up production by that amount.

Dougie

Your headline caption on the main page reads: “7,000 Model 3 deliveries. 7 days. 1 city. Now that’s impressive!”

This text does not appear in the article itself.

I read through the article expecting to see confirmation somewhere that 7,000 cars had been delivered in a week. Did not see it. Misleading headline. It’s a GOAL.

Of course I hope they reach the goal, but you got my hopes up unfairly for a moment…

vich

A more appropriate headline would have been – What Tesla is doing now is jaw dropping…. Guaranteed click bait ….

Alex

Tesla might be profitable this quarter, losses were sill huge in the last quarter but if the ASP goes up a lot it might happen.
In Q4 they’ll be profitable for sure…. almost for sure :).

The really test for Tesla is not Q3 or Q4 2018. The real test it’s going to be 2019, with fading tax credit and some more competition.

Mark.ca

Sure….as soon as an obstacle is passed by Tesla we can safely say it was not a real obstacle and that the next one coming is the rel one. The beauty of it is we can print new forever using this strategy!

Pushmi-Pullyu

Tesla will have no significant competition in the EV passenger car market until at least 2020, and quite possibly not until even later. Cars like the I-Pace and the e-Tron will be sold in far too small quantities to have any measurable impact on Tesla’s sales.

The news media likes to write articles about how EVs compete head-to-head, but the reality is that most of the competition is with gasmobiles, not with other EVs. Just look at statistics for the cars which are traded in on new EVs. How many of those are EVs? Only a minority.

https://electrek.co/2018/08/01/tesla-model-3-top-5-trade-in-cars/

BroncoBet

No, 50K annual production of the E troy are extremely significant, they do work on the marginal price the X would receive,so the X would still sell out but may receive $1K less for the same model, it makes a difference even when both models sell out. The e-tron can also help Tesla with greater EV acceptance and supply lines.

Pushmi-Pullyu

If Audi makes 50,000 e-Trons in the first model year, then I’ll eat one. It’s wildly unrealistic to believe that Audi/Volkswagen can get enough batteries for that many e-Trons this year. It hasn’t been long since VW reps were crying about how nobody had any battery production capacity. VW has very recently pledged to spend $48 billion to ensure significantly increased future battery supply, but that won’t happen overnight… nor even within a year.

https://insideevs.com/lithium-ion-battery-shortage-looming/

GTV6

Audi specifically promised it’s US sales force last Spring to deliver 50K e-Trons to US alone in 2019 which I believe they can easily sell. We shall see. I agree the impact of ‘competitors’ on Tesla in the US will be marginal for another 2 years.

Brian

Come on, that’s from VWAG, same guys who are so dishonest that they make Musk look like an Eagle Scout under oath.

Nix

Global deliveries begin in 2019 and everyone in the United States will be trying to get half credits. They will still be supply constrained for at least another year

BroncoBet

The 3 sales in the US in Q1 will be tough. end of Q2 would be good ,then sales would dive again beginning Q3,I’m sure they are planning for this ,with overseas sales and other demand levers.

Some Guy

Elon should sell a new merchandise item, targeted at short sellers: Tesla brand “movable goal posts”
Easy to move around ever so often!

Movable goalposts come with two Boring bricks for foundation.

Buy them now, before the short squeeze!
Available directly in 44 states, and online everywhere.

antrik

Great idea 🙂 If you happen to be on Twitter, you should definitely put it there as well 😉

bro1999

“The real test it’s going to be 2019”
Specifically March 2019, when Tesla will potentially have to pay off $920 million in convertable debt if the stock price isn’t above $360.

Get Real

And right on que, it wont keep MadBro from trying!

Speculawyer

Meh, plenty of other ways of retiring that debt.

RGarcia

I bet the stock will be higher than $360 by March 2019, and anyways, if it is not, have you ever heard of re-financing? Tesla could easily pay down a potion of the debt and refinance or roll-forward the rest of the debt. When they are delivering 60,000+ Model 3’s per quarter and when people finally realize that yes Tesla will make a profit on the $35k version of the Model 3, thy will not have any issues with cash or debt.

BroncoBet

They can refinance but will have huge issues.

Doggydogworld

The prospectus for the March 2019 bonds allows Tesla’s board of directors to change the conversion price if they see fit. They might be limited to $252, that part’s not clear to me.

antrik

Wouldn’t converting the bond instead of paying it off be equivalent to raising new equity — something Musk claimed they aren’t planning to do?…

Doggydogworld

Depends on your interpretation. Tesla issues new equity to employees every quarter. I think Musk meant no traditional stock offerings.

BroncoBet

Right,Q1 2019 will be tough, overseas will be key and you need to plan ahead for delivery time, we’ve already heard of 3’s headed to GB and China,they need to homologate and to get cars on ships beginning Jan 1st.

Nicholas Kelischek

Unfortunately, not GB. Right hand drive units are not in production.

vich

We need to do if the insider was high on weed or Ambien? If so, it could be the man himself…

Get Real

So in your world, someone high on weed and Ambien starts and builds multiple, multi-billion dollar businesses?

Maybe I should go see my doctor.

REXisKing

I find Musk’s biggest critics are people with huge ego’s and yet, not much accomplished. And this pushes their buttons.
Are your buttons getting pushed, Vich?
You know there’s always an affordable community college in your area.
Classes are in session, you could audit something.

eject

Why are the cars piled up in the first place?

Vexar

Their delivery team wasn’t up to pace with the manufacturing division.

REXisKing

People don’t buy cars at night?

Andrew

Yes, why is 1.5 weeks’ worth of production not in customer hands yet?! Shouldn’t people be waiting at the end of the assembly line with catcher’s mitts and checkbooks?

Pushmi-Pullyu

Gosh yes, all cars should be delivered instantly from the factory to the waiting arms of its buyer. Tesla should use unicorns and moonbeams for delivery so they don’t have to fiddle around with real-world logistics like shipping schedules, car-carrier trucks and holding lots.

And of course, other auto makers never let thousands of cars “pile up” in holding lots, do they? Tesla is the only one which does that.
/s

comment image

Eric C

Tesla should ship with Semi using delivered car’s battery as range extender. Would be awesome! Not as cool as unicorns but still

BroncoBet

Just as rare.

Doggydogworld

But Tesla claims to be different than the legacy automakers, with a build-to-order model that means zero inventory.

Mark.ca

In the next OTA update the cars will drive themselves to the respective owners.

antrik

Tesla never claimed they have no inventory. They have had inventory for a long time.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Thank you! Yes, Tesla has “inventory”. It’s just that what Tesla means by “inventory” is, mostly, not at all what other auto makers call “inventory”. For other auto makers, “inventory” is mostly what’s sitting in dealership lots, with the dealer hoping a buyer will come along for it.

Tesla… not so much!

Doggydogworld

True. I meant to say Tesla claims to be different and some here claim they carry no inventory. You are correct that tesla does not claim zero inventory. In fact, their website specifically lists new, unsold inventory.

Nix

Who here claims they have “zero inventory”? I think it is only you when you repeatedly drag it out as a strawman.

Since way back in 2013, Tesla has had “inventory” cars that consist of service and demo cars, and orphan cars where the buyer either cancelled or did a change request or at delivery decided to choose a different vehicle. In fact, from the beginning people could buy the service and demo Model S “inventory” vehicles.

“The loaners will be available for immediate purchase at a price that is lower by 1% per month of age and $1 per mile. If you like the service loaner more than your other car, you can just keep it.”

https://insideevs.com/tesla-announces-85-kwh-model-s-service-loaner-program-end-of-forced-600-annual-fee-expanded-battery-coverage/

Having a certain number of inventory vehicles SHOULD NOT be confused with having a Dealer Lot Inventory sales model, where cars wait on lots twice. First they wait on Manufacturer’s lots before a Dealer orders them. Then they sit and wait on Dealer lots a second time for an industry standard of an average of 60 days before a buyer purchases it.

buutvrij

Can’t help you guys with any of this, since I am in EU, we are waiting even longer for m3…
GO Tesla!!!

Jim Whitehead

Oh, so that is how Tesla is disposing of their mountain of used cars now being traded in for Model 3s? Selling overseas or using them as loaners? The bears will find something wrong with it, of course, but it sounds like smart business to me.

Vexar

They sell them to Car Soup and Auto Trader and so on. Looking forward to the day that nobody wants a used ICE.

BroncoBet

Yes,it is both good and bad.Lots of Teslas traded in.Many coming off leases.They don’t get anything for selling these they’ve already gotten loans on them.

Chris

Used Teslas from US to China? These have a different charging plug…

Speculawyer

You don’t think Tesla knows how to modify their own cars?

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yup. It’s well established that Tesla will often upgrade the hardware on its CPO cars, before re-sale. Retrofitting a Chinese plug port doesn’t seem like a very challenging task.

antrik

They have to replace the whole panel though, since the Chinese variant has a different (larger) charger port door…

Nathanael

Not on the Model 3. On the S and X, yes. On the Model 3, the door’s specifically designed to fit the Chinese plug as well as the US plugs, so no body panel work needed.

antrik

This is about used cars, not about Model 3…

morrisg

Yes, but the on board charger is a universal 3 phase design, so only the charging plug and cable to the charger needs to change. Relatively simple to do.

Some Guy

If you extract the charging plug in the US, export the vehicle without one (perhaps remove the battery pack during shipping as well) and install a new charging plug in china, does the car count as “used car” or as “used car parts” when imported to China? AFAIK car parts have a way lower import tax than cars.
If my thoughts are correct, once reassembled, the vehicle could be sold at a nice premium when compared to the US trade-in value, considering the much higher price levels for new Tesla’s in China after the recent tax hikes.

Speculawyer

Install the new charger in China and say the car was assembled in China. 🙂

Pushmi-Pullyu

That’s actually not too far from what Tesla does in its European “final assembly” plant, used to avoid some tariffs and/or VAT.

https://insideevs.com/teslas-new-tilburg-factory-now-open/

Seven Electrics

Desperate times call for desperate measures which include dumping cars in China at a discount. It may well pay off in the form of a cheaper capital raise in the next few quarters.

Get Real

It obviously calls for desperate mis-direction by you and your fellow anti-Tesla for financial reasons leaches as Tesla continues to blow away every other EV manufacturer on the EV scoreboard!

Some Guy

Blowing away EV manufacturer on the EV scoreboard?
They are beyond that now. I mean when one brand has 63% of sales in any field it is pretty clear who’s boss.
TESLA stormed past Porsche in worldwide production capacity, and have left BMW behind them in the US in the car segment (over all models).
Jaguar worldwide production level is next target.
That and getting into top three of best selling cars in US with the Model 3.

BTW: Tesla’s success bears fruit. Porsche, who some time ago had announced that they will electrify half the portfolio within the next decade, and then refined that to 50% of sales being Plug-in (incl. PHEV) by 2027, now says that they will go for 75% BEV (yep, 75% BEV) sales in 2025! I hope that they mean it.

antrik

Where did you see 75% BEV claim? The latest I’ve seen was 50% in 2025…

Some Guy

Its the latest news, from an interview with Porsche CEO yesterday, by a renowned German news outlet.
German language only
http://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/autoindustrie/porsche-fast-alle-modelle-werden-elektroautos-angriff-auf-tesla-a-1229023.html

Summary: Macan, Cayenne, Boxster and Panamera will turn BEV between 2022 and 2025, leaving only the 911 as an ICE or (P)HEV, resulting in plans for 75% BEV in 2025. According to the article, they came to the conclusion that the parallel development of different drivetrains (ICE, Hybrid, BEV) is too expensive, so they will go for just one, and obviously they chose BEV.

antrik

Wow 🙂 I thinks that makes them the first legacy brand truly to commit to an EV future?

Vexar

Uh, hate to be contrary with you (in particular), but they are probably making more money selling them in China as used cars than they would in the US. Think about it: the tariffs are lower on used cars. Tesla cars are the fastest-selling used cars around. The only reason Tesla would be selling them in China is because they can make more money off them.

The other angle probably missed is that this is an indicator of a refresh coming for the Model S and X.

Pushmi-Pullyu

So, a good sales strategy for used cars is Tesla being “desperate”? 🙄

Well, I see something here that looks increasingly desperate… and it’s the FÜD campaign by you and your fellow serial Tesla bashers!

Tesla has won. Its business is now a runaway success. You bashers have lost… big time! Get over it.

Speculawyer

Delivering cars to buyers is apparently “a stunt”. Well, that’s an interesting troll.

Vexar

Well, so was building GA4 in a tent structure. Yay, Stunts!!!!

TeslaInvestors

But we know the story there of 5k/week at EOQ in Q2, don’t we? The quality came out terrible as 83% cars needed rework. Workers had to wade through sewer. Do you call that a godo thing?
That one, I understand though. Moody’s credit rating may depend on Tesla achieving 5k a week rate, as ELon promised last year. But this 7k delivery in one city in 7 days seems to have no such benefit.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Do you call that a godo thing?”

No, we call that “FÜD”. One bathroom with a toilet overflowing for a few hours before it got fixed is a long way from workers having to wade ankle-deep in sewage for an entire shift, as you FÜDsters love to insinuate.

Honestly, the obsession over trivial details of Tesla’s production by short-selling FÜDsters is beyond ridiculous! If it was any other auto maker, who would care if one auto assembly plant had a toilet which backed up for a few hours? Nobody, that’s who!

bro1999

Donald Trump did it all the time. Wouldn’t surprise me if the anonymous insider is Elon himself. Rob Mutz. 😉

Larry

My delivery date for the Model 3 was dec to Jan. I took delivery last week. Only two weeks after ordering.

Brian

LR or AWD? Thx

Mark.ca

What options?

Pushmi-Pullyu

Congratulations! 🙂

I hope you’re enjoying your new car.

REXisKing

Read between the lines.
It was Melon Eusk.

Amaurys L

Why do you say “some unproven random caller”?
Where do you read that??
Because I read “a trusted source that works there and wanted to remain anonymous”.
Get it straight buster!!

David Frost

Tesla has the market beat for producing batteries for electric cars. They have also prepared well for future demand. When the legacy auto makers are releasing their “Tesla Killer” cars in next year, two years…whenever, they’ll be challenged to have a range of 250 miles. By 2022, Teslas will have a range of 400 miles +. I have to think that by 2022 Tesla will have North America, Europe and without a doubt China’s markets sewed up.

This is going to be the first positive earnings report in its history (or at least its best earnings report). It will be followed by 2 more quarters of profitability that will send this stock on the same trajectory as Amazon.

TRIVIA: In January, 2015 Amazon was under $300. They soon followed with a series of consecutive earnings beats and positive earnings (as Tesla will do). Amazon doubled in a year and a half and then doubled again two years later.
At this writing, AMZN is $1,927 – off its recent all time high of $2,050.
That is where TSLA is going….in 2021

antrik

Not sure what you mean by “sewed up”; but Tesla needs to introduce more models to grab a larger portion of the overall car market in the long run… That will take a lot longer than 2022.

Ramsey Eldib

Tomorrow, we are picking up our fourth Tesla in our family from the Marina del Rey Delivery Center. This one is a silver P3D+
VIN 5YJ3E1EB4JF079XXX

Congrats! How exciting, I hope it goes smoothly for you!

I have added your apx VIN to our count for Sept. When we release sales estimates, you’re officially part of the count! 😁

Ramsey Eldib

WhooHoo! Just got a text from Marina Del Rey Delivery Center asking if I can come in today instead of tomorrow to pick up our Model 3. They had theee open slots today. Oh yes I can!

Pushmi-Pullyu

“You are saying, some unproven random caller called you and told you some story, and you fell for it because it is too good for Tesla?”

This coming from the guy who created a “Mega Thread for Tesla Investors” on the IEVs Forum to give him a place to regurgitate anti-Tesla FÜD… trying to convince everyone that demand for the Model 3 has fallen off a cliff, and trying to convince us the reason people are reporting increasing numbers of Tesla cars in holding lots is because Tesla can’t sell them.

He’s even tried to convince us that cars keep getting added to holding lots without any ever leaving! (What, do they have a black hole onsite? Or are those just hidden entrances to vast underground caverns where Tesla is stacking unsold cars like cordwood?)

Try putting your own house in order, “TeslaInvestors”, before you go casting stones at others. More to the point, it’s time to end your denial of Tesla’s runaway success with selling the Model 3.

Else

Can you guys please subscribe to this channel, the gsmily has been making great Tesla video. They deserve more subscriptions
https://youtu.be/LGTex5y30Ag

esto perpetua

According to a Seeking Alpha article today ( yes, THAT Seeking Alpha) by Ross Tessien, here’s some Tesla facts:
Tesla Model 3 is now:

2% of entire auto industry revenue
#1 selling EV in the US
#18 selling vehicle of any kind (August 2018, US)
#5 selling passenger vehicle (August 2018, US)
#7 selling passenger vehicle in Canada (August 2018)
#1 gross revenue passenger car (August 2018, US)
Long Tesla!

BroncoBet

Nice!

antrik

Most of these figures we already knew more or less… It’s the “2% of entire auto industry revenue” one that made my jaw drop.

That’s not worldwide though, is it? I’d guess somewhat around 1% worldwide — which is still very impressive of course 🙂

Doggydogworld

2% of US revenue. Extremely impressive for a single model.

Mark.ca

If you think that’s good just wait for September numbers….

Doggydogworld

“2% of entire auto industry revenue”
Just to be clear, it’s US auto industry revenue

“#18 selling vehicle of any kind (August 2018, US)”
It’s actually #21. Chevy Silverado, GMC Sierra and Chevy Equinox are not on the list because GM stopped reporting monthly sales.

“#5 selling passenger vehicle (August 2018, US)”
Again, to be clear it’s #5 “passenger car”. Does not include SUVs and CUVs (e.g. RAV4, Honda CR-V, etc.).

TeslaInvestors

What’s the math for 2%? How does it look for Ford F-series pick ups?
Other manufacturers each have many models in the top sellers, and they have been selling for years at a sustained clip.

I’d think, this 2% will peter out quite soon, by the end of 2018 for sure.
Unless Trump throws Elon another tax credit lifeline, which seems unlikely, imo.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“I’d think, this 2% will peter out quite soon, by the end of 2018 for sure.”

Yeah, it will “peter out” by growing to 3%-4% by the end of the year.
🙂 🙂 🙂

Poor TeslaInvestors. Still in firm denial of the runaway success of the Model 3!

Get Real

Yes, more desperation from a long-time serial anti-Tesla poster helpless to stop the Tesla Tsunami washing away his gambling bets against the company and a better future for all of the planet and its peoples.

Doggydogworld

F-Series had 5.5% market share and 6% revenue share, IIRC. That includes a much wider range of vehicle configurations and prices than model 3, though.

Model 3 is changing a lot of opinions in carmaker boardrooms. 2% revenue share out of nowhere combined with Munro’s teardown is shaking things up.

TeslaInvestors

OK. We have to be little careful though, since it’s all based on IEV estimates and not confirmed data. The wards auto reports puts total Model 3 sales in Q3 in July+August at only 9000. Also, depends on what ASP was used for Model 3, since no one knows how many LR vs AWD/P MOdel 3s sold so far.

We will probably never know ti exactly, unless Tesla breaks down the numbers by model which I doubt.

Nix

Musk validated the Insideev’s estimates as being at least in the ball-park when he retweeted the results.

TomArt

IEV estimates are the best in the business. More accurate than Bloomberg or anyone else that publishes estimates. Been that way for years now, and they keep getting better.

Tim

Ordered a silver Performance M3 on the 13th of September (the last day to order the now discontinued color) with the white interior and all options except FSD. Notified that delivery could be this Sunday (the 22nd) but I will be traveling for work until 26th so need to push it back until later next week. Talk about a shock! I expected November at the earliest! (First day reservation holder x2 located in Orange County, CA.) They must be making a lot of progress…

Mark.ca

The list may be shorter now on the loaded models but you being local makes a big difference for them.

Nix

Tesla stated that they would be expediting the production of the discontinued colors. It sounds like they are doing them all in a batch to get them all out the door so they can streamline production.

TeslaInvestors

420K reservation brother! 420 is “good karma” – Elon.

David

Meanwhile in Australia – the 3 seems to be getting further and further away!

Nathanael

Sorry, Australia. Looks like you’ll have to wait behind the queues for North America, Europe, and China. You get high priority for Powerwalls, though!…

Nix

That’s just continental drift…

“Australia Is Drifting So Fast GPS Can’t Keep Up”

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/09/australia-moves-gps-coordinates-adjusted-continental-drift/

LOL!

Steve Townsend

Thanks for the story. I think I now know where the Model 3 is that we were supposed to be picking up as I write this. We would have been 45 minutes in to our pick up appointment. Now, things have reverted back to Sep-Nov. They said (two days ago) that there was a production issue, and that they wanted to make sure that our car was perfect. So, our car existed one minute, now it doesn’t any more. Hmmm. Perhaps I have been too much of a fanboy, as I have a large portion of my retirement locked up in TSLA.

Doggydogworld

Sorry to hear that. Where are you located?

Steve Townsend

Seattle, WA area. Had been hearing a horror story or two, but hoped it wouldn’t happen to us. A bit disappointed, for sure.

Doggydogworld

Fly to SF and pick it up. They’ve probably got dozens of identical ones there. They might throw in free supercharging for your trouble.

TeslaInvestors

LOL. By the time he is back to Seattle driving, he would already lose 2 days of his time and $1000 in depreciation! And still has to pay the dealer destination charges.

Get Real

Depreciation happens with every new car, but thanks for trying to spin this as a negative against Tesla /s.

If Steve does this he ends up with a sweet Tesla and probably a very nice road trip back home since it is thoroughly covered by Superchargers.
I have done this trip in my Volt and it was a very scenic drive.

Nix

Call Tesla and see if they have an identical or similar car sitting in inventory somewhere. There seems to be a limited number of those available.

Unless you have a simply massive retirement account where a “large portion” can be gambled on a single volatile stock, a “large portion” should never be invested into any one single stock, regardless of the company.

antrik

That makes no sense. Why would they decide to reroute the car, if they could have had it delivered to you today?

There was a similar case recently were Musk himself replied on Twitter that they sometimes cancel delivery when discovering a problem. I see no reason to presume he’s lying…

Steve Townsend

Right, it doesn’t make sense. I don’t presume he’s lying, and I KNOW that I’m not.

TeslaInvestors

I don’t get why my comment was deleted? I just asked if you validate the source before publishing the article, as any journalist ought to do. I don’t see what comment policy it violates. It is important topic, to know if this story is really credible or not.

Mark.ca

Maybe it was your breath….

Jaydee

If Tesla is not able to make a profit in Q3 then there is something seriously wrong with the company. There should have been no real big expenditures and their sales have litterally never been better

Doggydogworld

Sales are indeed way up but they have to climb out of Q2’s 700+ million dollar hole. Each extra S/X contributes ~25k and extra Model 3s contribute 10-15k each. So even if they sell 6k extra S/X they still need to deliver something like 40k extra 3s (58k total) to break even.

ZEV credit sales were zero in Q2. That could put them over the top.

Seven Electrics

Looks like Tesla has brought back free supercharging for inventory Model 3s. Everything must gooooo!

Get Real

Yeah its great, just look at the EV score card linked up above from your trading desk

Tesla is now the dominant brand in the world for EVs which will displace LICE vehicles over the next 2 decades.

You should get yourself an EV so you can see how nive they are.

antrik

Are you implying that it’s somehow a bad thing?

YVES LAURIN

They want to deliver 1000 car a day in the bay area, in order to do this, it looks like they remove almost every employees from the production line. If you like on the Bloomberg site for TM3 production,numbers are considerably down.

Doggydogworld

Bloomberg was WAY too high. They just changed their model (again) and cut 4k+ from their total.

Their weekly production rate is not meant to be taken literally. It overshoots then undershoots.

antrik

The Bloomberg estimates are way off. (Too high for the preceding weeks, too low currently.) According to Electrek’s alleged inside source, production seems to be going steady.

Mikael

Have Chinese Model S/X had any special VIN numbers? I mean, the European Model 3’s built so far were spotted that way in VIN registrations, so my question is really if and how many Chinese VINs for Model 3’s are out there so far? Or “just” US spec vehicles (possible with an after production GB/T fix)?

Thanatophoric

Took delivery of my 3rd Tesla vehicle today in Fremont. The place was nuts. At least 50 groups were taking delivery simultaneously.

Back in 2015 I took delivery of a Model S at the factory and was offered a tour of the factory.

In January I got my Model 3 and it was inside the new Fremont delivery building on carpet under spot lights; the Tesla employee spent 20 minutes with us; maybe 4 groups were taking delivery simultaneously.

Today our Model X was parked outside in the parking lot, freshly washed (still wet); Tesla employee handed us the keys and said to look the car over. He wandered back after 10 minutes and said “Any questions? No? Yer all set.” Volunteers with red badges were standing by to answer questions. The new X is a beast. Great to see so many Teslas rolling out onto the highways. Tesla definitely has exceeded its current delivery capacity. Returning customers likely won’t mind the rush job, but new customers may expect a better delivery experience.

Jeff

To the hundreds of thousands of people who put down deposits to reserve a Tesla 3, this quote comes to mind:

Jerry Seinfeld: You see, you know how to TAKE the reservation, you just don’t know how to HOLD the reservation. And that’s really the most important part of the reservation: the holding. Anybody can just take them

P Roppo

Maybe this is why I saw a truckload of dusty Model 3s driving towards Fremont last week.