Tesla Outperforms Expectations, Delivers 25,000 Model S and Model X EVs In Q1

APR 2 2017 BY STATIK 46

Tesla’s Fremont factory production was a bit unconventional in Q1 while preparing for the Model 3 this July

As Tesla has been known to do, the all-electric automaker has estimated its first quarter (Q1) sales and production of the Model S and Model X globally.

Tesla says it delivered just over 25,000 vehicles in Q1, broken down as follows:

  • Tesla Model S: 13,450
  • Tesla Model X: 11,550

Tesla will have to deliver ~22,000+ EVs in Q2 to hit H1 delivery projections…while at the same time ramping for Model 3 production

While at the same time producing 25,418  EVs between January and March – a new company record.  Tesla noted the following on the achievement:

This was a new quarterly record for us and represents a 69% increase over Q1 2016. Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5%”

We should note that as we tracked deliveries for the US, Q1 was an unconventional one for production at Tesla’s Fremont facility, with more than a few ‘lost’ days to Model 3 prep, including a full week’s worth in February as pre-production of that EV got underway, so the result is easy outpaced expectations.

And while they don’t do it for every quarter, Tesla also disclosed in transit vehicles:

“In addition to Q1 deliveries, about 4,650 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q2 2017.”

Of note:  Generally at the start of a new year the company will give full year guidance for sale and production estimates.

However, with the unknown factor that is the Model 3 (which the company says will start limited production in July), Tesla only broke down sales forecasts for the first 6 months of this year during it’s Q4/FY 2016 report in late February.

“We expect to deliver 47,000 to 50,000 Model S and Model X vehicles combined in the first half of 2017, representing vehicle delivery growth of 61% to 71% compared with the same period last year.”

Using our amazing math and calculator skills, we determine that means Tesla is looking to sell about 22,000-25,000 EVs in the upcoming 3 months – and with ~4,650 EVs in transit, logging ~17,350 more sales would not seem to present much of a challenge.

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46 Comments on "Tesla Outperforms Expectations, Delivers 25,000 Model S and Model X EVs In Q1"

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EV4Life

Indeed, 17K doesn’t seem alot compared to the numbers produces previously, maybe they’re expecting some more production interruptions as they get closer to Model 3 production?

Nix

Either that, or they may have finally decided to under-predict and over-deliver on their Model S/X numbers?

They probably haven’t done that with Model 3 numbers yet….

*grin*

Jernej

In Q4 they stated:

“In addition to Q4 deliveries, about 6,450 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q1 2017.”

Actual production was then something like 23.2k

Daniel Cardenas

How to figure out what percent are U.S. deliveries? Want to calculate when 200K limit reached.

Mikael

It will probably be reached either in early january 2018 or early march 2018 depending on Model 3 ramp up.

Get Real

I guess this info blows up 4 Electrics multiple repetitive posts in various threads about how Tesla is supposedly falling far short of their 2017 guidance!

Four Electrics

Absolutely, yes. The prior estimate was based on InsideEV’s sales scorecard and is totally wrong.

The 1H guidance is the other piece of evidence that sales are softening–that, or Tesla has finally decided to sandbag their estimates so as to end the running joke that was their streak of prior misses.

Get Real

Thats right 4E, when proven wrong keep moving your anti-Tesla goal posts!

Four Electrics

I can only look at public data. I do not possess insider information.

Speaking of public data, upon further inspection, you can perhaps speculate as to the reason Tesla’s 1H guidance is essentially flat:

2016 Q1 model S: 12,420
2017 Q1 model S: 13,450

Most of the YoY sales increase is due to the X. S sales are flat YoY, which is consistent with a wait and see approach of some buyers towards the 3.

Mint

The X being in full production most definitely takes away sales from the S. They’re priced similarly, yet the X is more car with more gadgets.

Tesla doesn’t care much if new customers choose the S or the X, and neither should you.

Pointing out “flat” S sales is very disingenuous.

Get Real

“Very disingenuous” is a nice way to describe 4E’s trickster anti-Tesla FUD.

vvk

When I was helping a friend to pick up his MX a few weeks ago, I don’t recall seeing a single MS being delivered. It was one MX after another. There was one lonely MS sitting there, not sure if it was being delivered that day.

TomArt

Why would you expect continued insane growth? Tesla Model S has saturated the market…back in 2015! Any increases YoY is pure, savory gravy!

Nix

Sadly, people like Four Electrics completely misunderstanding how Tesla batch builds for different global markets in each month of the quarter, is why Tesla never releases monthly US sales numbers.

Even after seeing quarter after quarter where the pattern of global vs. US deliveries are clear, 4E gets it wrong every quarter.

But you can’t help those who don’t want helped.

ffbj

He who should not be named.

leafowner

Nice — but more would be better (especially international sales!!)

georgeS

“would not seem to present much of a challenge.”

Exactly.

Flat production over the 2 sequential quarters, comparing year over year is misleading but that’s what they all do.

That’s OK model 3 coming soon.

georgeS
Bob Nan

So nice to read this news. 25,000 in Q1 is a big # given the fact that January is the lowest sales month. So this month also, we can see a big increase on YoY basis. And possibly Model-S will end up as #1. Prius Prime is also supposed to be somewhat higher this month.
Lets see in the March scorecard.

William

The Prius Prime will be the monthly surprise, to the upside, for March and at least the next few months. The upcoming scorecard will put the “proof”, in the Prius Prime Pudding! PPP is not really a game changer on my PHEV dessert menu or diet!

Prius Prime on the EV Side, is the Volt (Lite) version.

On the Gas use MPG side, the Volt is Prius (Lite)!

Their is some mathematical point where one serves a user better than the other, but generally, I think the Volt does better for those with longer commutes, but shorter non-commute drives, where the Prius Prime is better for those with shorter commutes, but longer non-commute drives, due to its shorter all EV range, but better gas mileage.

Brian F

I remember seeing a calculation someone did once with the Volt (1st generation) vs Prius (1st generation plugin, not the new Prime) and the conclusion was that for any trips under 150 miles, the Volt provided better overall mpg/mpge but for anything over 150 miles the Prius was better.

I wish I remembered what site that was on, or who said it, or I had the time and inclination to do the calculations myself for the 2nd Gen Volt and Prius Prime to see how that 150 mile mark has changed.

Brian

A good start for a small company.

For reference, Toyota and VW each move more than that volume each day of the year.

paul smith

Brian, for reference Volkswagen has been selling cars for 80 years, and Toyota for 84.

Ocean Railroader

Tesla needs to ramp up production to 75,000 cars a quarter if we can counter play OPEC at their oil production cut game https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-03/oil-holds-above-50-as-barkindo-optimism-counters-u-s-rigs

OPEC has cut 800,000 barrels of oil a day. But if Tesla could start pumping out Teslas by the hundreds of thousands that would make up for the oil loses.

Dan Edwards

The EV report says Tesla sold 10400 cars YTD. Did they sell 15000 overseas? Are all EV numbers just for the USA?

SS

Hey Jay,
I track your monthly sales data in a spreadsheet — can I post it here?

Thomas

Unbelievable how blind people can be. In Q4 2016 Tesla sold 24882 cars. Why should 25000 in Q1 2017 be so great? Quite a poor raising.