Tesla Motors – Model S/X Road To 50,000+ Sales In 2015 & Cumulative Total Of Nearly 110,000

JAN 5 2016 BY MARK KANE 27

Tesla Model S (wallpaper 2,560 x 1,440)

Tesla Model S

Tesla Motors proved that it’s able to deliver 50,000+ electric cars in one year thanks to an outstanding 17,400 estimated deliveries in the last quarter of 2015.

The surge of production and sales around the world was tremendous in Q4′ 2015 compared to Tesla’s previous results since mid-2012.

And as you can see, growth is diversified, because approximately half of the sales comes from North America.

Through the end of 2015, Tesla cumulatively delivered some 107,000 Model S (and the first batch of some 214 Model X).

Tesla Motors Model S/X Deliveries - by the end of December 2015

Tesla Motors Model S/X Deliveries – by the end of December 2015

Tesla Is About To Open Order Books For The Model X

Tesla Model X

As the Tesla Model X ramp-up proceeds, total S/X sales in 2016 should increase to some 80,000 units annually.

Betting on 100,000 is probably too risky a forecast, but let’s not rule it out completely.

The big question is whether total S/X sales outside North America will catch up with NA (mostly U.S.). China, for example,started off weak, so the only way is up.

Next year at this time we will probably be celebrating 200,000 Model S/X sold and gearing up for the approaching Model 3 (or perhaps delivering news of its delay).

Tesla Motors Model S/X Deliveries Cumulative (quarterly) - by the end of December 2015

Tesla Motors Model S/X Deliveries Cumulative (quarterly) – by the end of December 2015 – estimated splits

One more thought… Panasonic must be damn happy to sell batteries for nearly 110,000 long-range electric cars. Thats some 8,000,000 kWh (8 GWh) of energy (we don’t know exacly the mix of 60, 70, 85 and 90 kWh packs).

How many 18650 lithium-ion cells does that equal? A mind-boggling amount… and this is only the beginning.

Tesla Model X concept on the stand Panasonic

Tesla Model X concept on the Panasonic stand

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27 Comments on "Tesla Motors – Model S/X Road To 50,000+ Sales In 2015 & Cumulative Total Of Nearly 110,000"

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vdiv

“Full power Mr. Scott!”
“The relays will reject the overload, Mr. Spock!”

“How many 18650 lithium-ion cells does that equal? A mind-boggling amount…”

8 GWh / 10.5 Wh per cell = 761,904,762 cells

Priusmaniac

That is more than enough to span the globe if you put all the cells on a line. Amazing.

Mint

This year, Panasonic will cross the billion mark in 18650 cells produced.

They should make a sign like McDonalds 😛

Get Real

And that is the reason they have to build the first Gigafactory to support sales in the hundreds of thousands.

Question is, what are the other EV makers or their suppliers doing to get ready for such sales numbers?

Anon

Exactly. Not a lot, if they’re going to build a lot of long range EV’s– and not carbon-spewing, oil-burning hybrids with tiny packs.

MikeG

Unless LG Chem can deliver the cells, the Chevy Bolt will sell as well as the Chevy Spark EV did.

I’m not dissing Chevy for their Bolt or Spark EV models, but unless LG Chem has the capacity, the Bolt won’t sell in huge numbers.

ModernMarvelFan

“but unless LG Chem has the capacity, the Bolt won’t sell in huge numbers.”

Unless GM can sell that many, LG Chem won’t invest in the capacity.

It is a chicken egg problem, isn’t it?

Until we have people lining up to buy the Chevy Bolt like “iDiots” lining up to buy the latest iPhone on the release day, why would LG Chem invest in far more capacity?

Since the launch of Volt, despite how great Volt is, Volt still has yet to reach the 45K/year goal that former GM CEO aimed for.

Until people put up the money and demand, there will be limited investment in extra capacity.

Three Electrics

Tesla had this problem with Panasonic already. The answer is that the manufacturer will *slowly* increase capacity as they see demand.

In an alternate world, a manufacturer could use mucho dollars to pre-pay for capacity. Given how much more money these big players have, it’s not out of the question.

Priusmaniac

“despite how great Volt is”

ROTFL

Apparently folks and families don’t quiet think that. I’d rather have an old Prius where my 3 kids are fine than a volt where the middle one has nowhere to put his legs. That is such a giant mistake; I still can’t believe a good willing company would do that. The same for i3 by the way.

Dragon

The 2004 gen 2 “old” Prius also has the hump in the middle. I’m not sure about gen 3.

Dragon

Chevy is only planning to make 30,000 Bolts in the first year. I doubt LG has the battery-making capacity to up that production much even if there is huge demand. Meanwhile, Tesla is likely to sell 80,000 or higher. Chevy still isn’t serious about the EV revolution.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Well, BYD is building its own battery factories, and it looks like Nissan/AESC is converting at least two of its three Leaf battery factories to LG Chem’s recipe, so they can produce state of the art battery cells. (So far as I know, no word yet on the AESC battery factory in the UK.)

And as we all know, Tesla and Panasonic are building Gigafactory 1 to supply Tesla’s Model ≡ and other Tesla EVs.

Unfortunately, most of the other EV makers seem to be relying on LG Chem to ramp up its production to supply all of them. Obviously that’s going to limit the supply for some or all of those EV makers.

* * * * *

As I’ve pointed out in the past: Investigative reporters say “Follow the money”. For EV enthusiasts, “Follow the battery supply”. You can easily see which EV makers are serious about making and selling EVs in large numbers… and which are not. So, kudos to Tesla, BYD, and Nissan. The others… well, they’re just not serious about it.

Priusmaniac

“despite how great Volt is”

ROTFL

Apparently folks and families don’t quiet think that. I’d rather have an old Prius where my 3 kids are fine than a volt where the middle one has nowhere to put his legs. That is such a giant mistake; I still can’t believe a good willing company would do that. The same for i3 by the way.

Priusmaniac

Sorry wrong reply click place.

jmac

Where’s the party ? Or did I miss something ? Thought for sure Tesla would come out with a big announcement when they hit 100K. I must have been asleep at the wheel and missed it.

TomArt

My reaction exactly!

Huffster

If we know there were 50k+ sales shouldn’t the Insideevs Sales Report card estimations reflect this? Right now Model S only shows only 25k+ for all of 2015 on the report card.

Dave S

50k is total production. The report card is US sales only.

Huffster

I see. Thank you for the clarification.

wavelet

I thought Tesla was planning to double production from 2015 to 2016 — the 100k units number for 2016 is one I recall seeing many places, including here (with a 50/%/50% S/X mix). 80K sounds low — is that a production ceiling, or a marketing problem?

Pushmi-Pullyu
That’s an excellent question; here’s hoping that we see some articles exploring the subject. It seems pretty apparent that Tesla hasn’t been able to ramp up production of the Model X as fast as planned, so that may be the primary reason for reduced expectations for 2016. Tesla has been pretty good at creating demand for the Model S, enough demand to keep ahead of sales. But they hit a wall on creating demand in China, which they originally expected to be a market bigger than Europe; you can clearly see Elon Musk’s frustration at that in a leaked angry letter to the Tesla team in China. So, it’s possible that Tesla is nearing the ceiling of Model S demand, or at least the ceiling of demand it can get without paying for mass marketing… such as ads in magazines and on TV. Since TV ads are very expensive, Tesla will avoid that as long as possible; paying for those will cut into its profit margin, which is higher than average for auto makers. But only those who manage Tesla Motors really know what the situation is with demand vs. production of Tesla cars, and they are all keeping mum… Read more »
Paul

They upped their production in the 4th quarter to 17.200. That was a big jump. 2016 won’t show such a jump again, because the X is built on the same production lines as the S and the S was at full production in quarter IV. So 20.000 a quarter seems realistic, which makes 80.000 a year.

turboro

Especially an achievement when you realize they have just one model in the upperclass 80-120kUSD price range, something Porsche needed decades to reach and Maserati still dreaming about.

I expect 2016 85’000 units: 40k of Model X and 45k of Model S. Can’t wait for the next new updates (75D and P95D) to keep the model S “fresh”.

PureElectricPower

I hope for 100 kWh in end of 2016.

Mike

to put these sales into context….
BMW sold 9292 7 Series in the US for 2015,
The so called #1 selling S-Class sold 22K in the US in 2015
Tesla shifted 25K Model S for 2015 US sales

assuming 80,000 s&x where Is Tesla going to build the 3 which I’m assuming Elon will shock the world and be on time!!!!