Tesla Motors Hopes For Highest Jump Of Sales Ever In Fourth Quarter

NOV 5 2015 BY MARK KANE 20

Tesla Is About To Open Order Books For The Model X

Tesla Is About To Open Order Books For The Model X

After the smallest sequential sales improvement in the third quarter – 11,603 (up 71 compared to 11,532 in Q2), Tesla hopes to set a significant new record in the fourth quarter.

Tesla’s expectations are to deliver between 17,000 to 19,000 cars (Model S & Model X). We assumed (the middle ground) around ~18,000 to illustrate how much more it’s compared to previous results.

Tesla needs to sell that many cars to achieve its overall goal of 50,000 to 52,000 sales in 2015. Specifically, 16,820 sales in Q4 are required to get to base 50,000 figure.

Given recent changes and a upsurge in Asia, we imagine a good bulk of this surge will come from that region, with possibly another, up to 1,000 Model X units in North America if the production ramp goes smoothly in December.

Production will grow up to 15,000-17,000, but that would be not enough, so as you can see below Tesla intends to deliver more cars produced in previous quarters.  (During Q3 Tesla stated they built 13,091 Model S and X EVs vs 11,603 deliveries)

Tesla Motors Car Deliveries

Tesla Motors Car Deliveries

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20 Comments on "Tesla Motors Hopes For Highest Jump Of Sales Ever In Fourth Quarter"

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With so many holidays in this quarter, I am skeptical. However, Tesla is strongly motivated both to **** with the shorts, and to accumulate more cash so that they can delay the next market cash infusion a little bit.

***mod edit (Jay Cole)***
Please endeavor to keep language PG, much appreciated
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I find it continually amusing how stock investors see everything Tesla does as though it was intended to manipulate stock price; as though that was Tesla’s primary goal, rather than making and selling compelling cars, and growing the company.

You guys really do wear blinders.

Yeah, right. No executives at Tesla with vesting stock options care about Tesla’s stock price. They’re all putting in those monster hours at work and not spending time with their family and loved ones, because their utmost concern is “making and selling compelling cars,” and the value of their stock options totally inconsequential to them. And none of those Tesla execs will take the money and run once those stock options have vested, to spend more time with their family and find another job that isn’t so demanding of their time. (rolls eyes)

Do double-headed llamas (aka a pushimi-pullyu) wear two sets of blinders?

LOL! Yeah, having two heads presents the occasional challenge. 😉

* * * * *

If Elon was really interested in pumping up the stock, he never would publicly admit the stock price is inflated, and he’s done that more than once.

I’m sorry that you can’t wrap your head around the fact that not everyone is as obsessed as you are with stock prices. And yes, certainly those few executives who have stock options are going to be concerned about their value over the long term. But they probably are not all that concerned with the day-to-day or week-to-week rise and fall of TSLA, which is a highly volatile stock. It’s gonna go up, it’s gonna go down. Unless you’re a daily trader, who cares what it happens to be today?

I hope that Tesla isn’t surprised once again this year that it couldn’t make as many deliveries as it expected because there was cold weather in December, and people decided to go on vacation around Christmas time and weren’t around to take delivery. 😉

Yeah, that was a pretty lame excuse Tesla offered for failing to make its December guidance, in… was that 2013?

Gosh, people on holiday away from home, and snow on the roads slowing deliveries, in December. What a surprise! [/snark]

That’s quite an aggressive goal. Hope they make it! But at the same time, I hope they don’t sacrifice quality control for the sake of quantity. From the recent Consumer Reports downgrade of their cars’ reliability, they need to really work on improving quality control.

GO TESLA!

When will Tesla run out of federal credits. If they run out before Model 3, then say goodbye to 35 k, hello 45 k.

The Model 3 target price has always been promoted as *before* gov’t incentives.

Tesla Model S deliveries in the US have not improved significantly since Q1 2013 (see the blue graph/line).

The focus will be on Asia, not the US. That does not include the potential for Model X deliveries.

My estimate is that they will deliver 50,001 vehicles by December 31st.

A strong word of caution about sales in Asia, especially China. Luxury items, or anything non-iPhone related are hit hard due to the economic turmoil going on there. InsideEVs can have its Asia-region correspondence to do some research on such.

Reports of the death of the Chinese boom economy have been greatly exaggerated (apologies to Mark Twain). 😉

Seriously, the growth has slowed, but that’s a long way from saying it has stopped growing.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-economy-is-a-lot-stronger-than-you-think-it-is-2015-11-05

They probably are expecting exactly that to happen in the US in Q4 2015. And very likely in Europe and Asia as well. That would be great.

Same in Europe, Model S sales have complete flatten over the year. October was not a growth month to pimp the Q4 sales.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showwiki.php?title=Europe+2015+Model+S+sales

Also, the Q3 ’15 U.S. dip corresponds to the period following 85D backlog. We’re almost at the (~3 year) point, where customers first cars began being traded/sold into newer ones. There was no material volume until Q1 2013.

Amazingly impressive ramp-up for a company new to mass automotive production, at a technological auto segment that’s still very much in its first-generation teething problems.

Compare and contrast with Nissan, a leading global automaker with a solid BEV (Leaf), for which they keep missing ramp-up goals despite having 3 factories making Leafs around the world.

Tesla now makes about as many BEVs in its single factory, as Nissan does in 3, despite the latter having 2+ years head start.

I’m pretty sure Nissan is ramping up manufacturing to match demand for the LEAF, which to put it politely has been lukewarm if not not disappointing. In the early days Nissan couldn’t obtain enough separator material for their batteries, but now has no such constraints on manufacturing. Right now Nissan isn’t utilizing all it available production capacity to make LEAFs, because the demand is not there. But if demand was there, Nissan could greatly increase LEAF production by eliminating idle capacity.

i plan on “winning” the TeslaMotorsClub 2015 contest to guess annual sales for 2015. I won in 2014. We guess in Jan and Feb of the year for the up comong year. For 2015 I have 47690 or so as my guess. I was off by a dozen or so for 2014, so very close.

https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/rebate-statistics

That link os a good tool to see how Plug in sales are doing in California based on rebates applied for, by brand.