Official: Tesla Model Y Unveiling March 14: Cost 10% More Than Model 3

MAR 3 2019 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 213

Tesla has confirmed that it will unveil the Model Y electric crossover on March 14.

This highly anticipated electric car is expected to outsell the Tesla Model 3.

The unveiling will take place at Tesla’s LA Design Studio.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk just broke this news via Twitter. We’ve embedded his tweet directly below:

Musk added some additional information on range and price:

Specs and pricing will be announced on Wednesday and test drive will be conducted:

All that’s officially known of the Model Y is limited to the teaser above and some hints from Musk here and there.

According to Tesla, the Model Y will be largely based upon the Model 3. This means its cost to develop should be on the lower side, though that doesn’t imply a low price tag necessarily.

The newest rumors, combined with info from Musk, indicate a base price $40,000, provided it’s offered with the smallest Model 3 battery pack. However, we don’t think that will be available on the Y and for certain, not anytime soon.

Previous rumors indicated Model Y would be a 3-row crossover, though that seems a bit questionable too.

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213 Comments on "Official: Tesla Model Y Unveiling March 14: Cost 10% More Than Model 3"

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Man, once the Model Y is released, what’s gonna be the shorters narrative about softening Model 3 demand?

What does Y have to do with 3? If anything, Y will canabalize some 3 sales, weakening 3 demand.

I just don’t understand why certain Tesla negativity people claim that EVs have to “cannibalize” from other EVs. Why can’t gasser advocates at least acknowledge that EV sales can come from the much larger pool of gas cars?

Ask BMW and Toyota where their sales losses for the 3 series and Prius are coming from. No one rightfully suggests that Leaf sales are dumping because of the Model 3. How about for ONCE admitting that maybe someone shopping for a gas SUV might just want to buy an electric one?

Less about Tesla, but more about CUVs being more popular currently than sedans.

You don’t think there are a ton of people who want a tesla but want a crossover instead of a sedan?

I think you mean they want a hatchback, which is what the Model Y will be, even if Tesla follows the new trend in re-naming almost every car an “SUV” unless it’s a pickup.

The Tesla Model X is a crossover; the “X” stands for “crossover”. So anyone who wants a Tesla crossover certainly has had time to buy one!

But so far not with only $40K to spend obviously.

The x stand for the falcone wing doors wich make an x

Not really. Musk just wanted the model names to spell SEXY. He wasn’t allowed to use “Model E” because Ford owns that name, so they went with this instead: S3XY.

Ya I’ll wait with bated breath for Tesla to call the model Y a hatchback…😂. Besides a crossover is simply a large hatchback in this day and age. Neither one has an old-fashioned heavy-duty body-on-frame truck construction.

Body on frame construction has been obsolete for decades.

You can make a unibody as sturdy or as weak as you like. The only drawback is that it’s not as easy for driveway hackers to work on — but you get a stronger lighter car in exchange.

The BOF is overrated, bulky, and overweight. It only makes sense if you’re going to unbolt the cargo area from the vehicle.

The Model X costs more than my house, and isn’t expected to last nearly as long!

I’m expecting the Model Y to have more reasonable pricing, and to last longer — which are both advantages of omitting the falcon wing doors. I will be cross shopping it with the Ford Explorer PHEV and Chrysler Pacifica PHEV for my progeny-hauling needs.

My wife and I are totally waiting for and hoping to afford an EV SUV. Already avoiding buying another ICE. So put us down for canibalizing ICE not electric.

Same here. We have been driving a Model S for six years and have been maintaining a 2006 Chevrolet Trailblazed because we will not buy another ICE. We need to tow a 3,800 pound boat and trailer so are doomed to wait for Rivian, Bolliger or Tesla to market a BEV that works for us.

Model X

If Atlas PU makes it to market it might fill the bill for you. It has similar numbers as Rivian.

The Model X is supposed to be able to tow 5000lbs.

“I just don’t understand why certain Tesla negativity people claim that EVs have to ‘cannibalize’ from other EVs.”

Indeed. I think it has much or perhaps mostly to do with the fact that journalists always try to create the impression of a head-to-head match between some Tesla car and whatever car they are writing about. They gin up a zero-sum game between EVs where none exists, to make the article more “exciting”.

In the real world, compelling PEV (Plug-in EV) models compete far more with the 98% of the market that is gasmobiles than the 2% of the market that is other PEVs!

Im definitively preorder the Y, i trust Elon to make a nice looking SUV
Thats instead of a diesel SUV
And of course; gonne keep the 3 as well👍
I think the Y is going to hurt ICE sales because thats what IT compete against, not the sedan/3
Here in Norway the Y and the 3 will crush ICE sales so bad..
Disruption is coming- thanks Elon and the Tesla team

BMW and Toyota doesn’t make nearly identical cars. I go bet with you, the Model Y will look like Model S and 3 just higher build, within cheap iPad “cockpit” just like Model 3. One really does not need to wait for a reveal here…

F150 Brian – quote: ” If anything, Y will canabalize some 3 sales, weakening 3 demand.”
————————
That may be true to an extent, but model 3 availability didn’t seem to weaken demand for the S & X too much?

And whilst it may take some sales that would otherwise be model 3, it’s likely to increase sales overall for Tesla, which I’m sure is what they are most concerned about? In the meantime, many people want to buy a car soon, and it may be a model 3 or ……..? The Y has been known about in principle for quite a while now, so revealing details isn’t likely to make much difference to people’s long term planning.

Yep, sales(Y + 3) >> sales (3)

And now that the article states the Y will cost 10% more than 3 (which may be build cost and not sales price, but let’s assume both for now), I think the Y will steal lots of sales from 3 because CUVs are hot and sedans are not.

modded you up, but we did not see MX really steal from MS.
As such, I do not expect Y to steal much from 3.
Far more likely will be that Y will steal more from X.
We saw 3 steal more S than X did.

3 really didn’t take from S. Per Q4 2018 letter: “Model S accounted for only a small portion (4%) of total Model 3 trade-ins. ”

Just going to a hatch will do a lot for Y. My hopes aren’t up, since they’ve been very up front about most parts carrying over. Still not happy about dash. Biggest attraction is efficiency and range, per dollar. “10%” premium is small change.

Y will not take from 3 just like 3 did not take from S. 3 took from the ICE world. Y will do the same just much harder.

Yeah – I am not getting the stealing from the higher model thing. I have an S and I am probably going to get a Y or a 3 to replace my other EV which is Ford Focus E. Why would I sell a more luxurious S for a 3? I plan to keep the S for about 10 years then get the next iteration or something at the same level.

There’s also the amount of time, we’re probably at least two if not three years away before you could get a base model Model Y…

So why the huge price cut for the S and X?

What “huge price cut”? There wasn’t one. The non-selling P100D price cuts represent very small units, and they took the entry level Model S off, then re-introduced it at about the same price.

Both the X/S extended range did receive “huge price cuts”…

It’s better to lose sales to your own product then it is to lose sales to your competitor.

If GM had realized that, they might not have gone bankrupt during the Great Recession.

What you derogatorily call “cannibalize” (which is a term with negative connotations), the entire Business World would call an “upsell”, and would universally be considered a good thing by every CEO in existence.

Higher priced products don’t “cannibalize” lower priced products in the same company’s offerings. Using that term to describe an upsell is simply a failed understanding of business and industry.

But heck, anything to throw negative shade on Tesla via any way possible no matter how petty, right? You would be funny if you weren’t so predictable.

Isn’t it higher priced because it’s bigger and therefore costs more to produce?

The body is bigger.
Battery, power train, electronics, seats, steering wheel, autopilot cameras & software, and more can be exactly the same.

You’d hope, anyway. The X was just supposed to be a lifted S, but then they went overboard. Hope Elon learned that lesson.

10% bigger body doesn’t translate to 10% bigger price.
ModelY will be a major profit center for Tesla because it will benefit from the maturing economies of scale flowing through from the model3 program which it shares all its major components with.

Tesla will need those margins to build out charging and service infrastructure which is struggling to keep up atm.

This company just keeps growing at a crazy pace.
2020 and 2021 are going to be massive years for Tesla.

Yes, Ford/GM/FCA produce so many trucks because they’re more expensive to make. LOL.

“cannibalize” is the word the auto industry has used for decades. Get over it.

Nope, Nix is exactly right. Nobody in the industry uses the word “cannibalize” to refer to an upsell to a higher priced car! That’s pretty clueless.

Except that Y is not likely to take much from 3.
We did not see X take a lot from S.
I expect that Y WILL take away from X.

Man, I can’t wait until Tesla and Rivian have their pickup trucks on the market cannibalizing all the Legacy car manufacturers pickup divisions. It should be a slaughter.

F150 will be taken down!

Doubtful anytime soon. Not saying I wouldn’t want it to happen but a competitive electric truck will be more expensive and most truck guys won’t even look at other brands

Not in a year from now. Plus the Y will be in 50k 55k starting off. They not going to make the same mistake like they did with the 3

10% more expensive means 40K starting price, going up to 55 for the LR AWD version.

$38,500=35K*110%

Yes, but that is assuming they will release a short range option. They could just stick to mid-range and long-range options.

Yeah, I doubt Tesla will be promising a 10%-over-$35k price for the Model Y. And Tesla almost certainly won’t have the months of delay between start of production and significant ramping up, either… as happened with the Model 3.

Sometimes it seems that, regarding the realities of automobile mass production, Tesla (or at least Elon) can only learn from “the school of hard knocks”, but at least some learning has taken place during the “production hell” phase of the Model 3.

It won’t take a full year to ramp, but six months is pretty normal. Most companies don’t sell the early units, though. They call them pre-production and lend them to employees for testing.

yep, this plus latest base model 3 availability should considerably reduce used prices for model 3’s .

that’s what I am waiting for…

Y will no doubt take 3 sales. But the sum of the 2 will still be larger.

There’s no doubt a set of people looking to buy 1 and only 1 Tesla, so their pick of 3 or Y… those who choose Y will mean 1 less 3 sale. So it’s true it will cannibalize it some.

But there’s also some who need/want wagon or SUV style and this opens the door for them. They would not buy a 3 or S and most can’t afford a X, so this will bring in new buyers.

The benefit of the Model 3 and Model Y sharing 75% of the same parts is that a sale for one or the other is the same….a sale for the platform. The Y just offers another option to build more volume for the midsize platform.

I really hope the Y is a smaller version of the X design, just like the 3 is a smaller version of the S, without the winged doors.

Cargo capacity for the Y gets expanded by the frunk, so it can be a sexy, sleek, sporty 5-door.

The shorts will ask “where’s the factory”. And where’s the money to build one?

Doggydogworld – quote: “The shorts will ask “where’s the factory”. And where’s the money to build one?”
————————
I’m sure it won’t be just the shorts asking that question……. And I’m sure Tesla have plans in hand, and they are questions that may well get answered on March 14th!

We’re gonna need more tents! But seriously. How about they just use Buffalo? Can make battery packs there too. It seems to me that it’s a bit more mobile and modular since there’s a lower proportion of external parts. Oh and presumably the drivetrain is nearly identical to 3. And the those tear town people noted it needs the body re-designed anyway to improve assembly.

I was perusing the map of service centers and stores and wondering where Tesla has not penetrated much yet….i.e. room to grow here in the US. There’s obviously blank space upper plains but I am a little surprised nothing in New Mexico (Santa Fe????). Nothing in Omaha even? Still room for penetration. But I was a little taken aback by the fact there isn’t a store or service center in Buffalo, NY. I realize cold, snowy north is not as EV friendly but you have a freakin factory there. If nothing else put a service center right on the factory site.

New Mexico is unfriendly to Tesla:

https://www.apnews.com/6f643f9c3d97400bbd6ccb446b05ee45

New York also limits the number of locations that Tesla can have.

There’s a store/ service center in Cleveland Oh

Do you mean Sparks Nevada, I don’t think your going to make many cars or batteries in a solar manufacturing facility.

Yeah, trying to turn a solar panel manufacturing plant into an auto assembly plant is a rather silly idea. And New York State isn’t exactly a “right to work” State, either.

Edited… misread your comment and my response no longer applies… 🙂

The shorts will say “Telsa will fail because the wind is not blowing in the right direction”

The factory is in Nevada. They have a year to get it ready. They will have sold enough X S & 3s by the that time to pay for that.

When it comes to parroting shorter talking-points, DroopyDogWorld is certainly well practiced.

We’ve been hearing endless whining about factories and funding since before the launch of the Model S. Somehow the shorters never figure out that building factories and getting funding is nothing unusual in the manufacturing industry. It is what the manufacturing industry does. It is business as usual, and it repeats itself every day all over the world. It is literally the cornerstone of how the manufacturing industry operates under Capitalism.

But all the sudden when it is Tesla doing it, shorters get Concerned!! Oh So Concerned!! So Very Concerned!!

And then when the Concern Trolls are proven wrong over and over and over, they simply repeat themselves.

I’ve been hearing the same crap since I bought in at $23. I’ll still be hearing it in a few years time when TSLA is over $1500. I’m sure I’ll still care just as much as I do now 🙂

Well said. It’s amazing just how much crap serial Tesla bashers think readers will swallow. Every single business move Tesla makes is described by the bashers as if it’s bad or unusual or a signal that something is “wrong” at Tesla.

https://i.pinimg.com/236x/b4/40/74/b4407445edc3114c8d3b4411b7f8b38f–quote-pictures-quotes-images.jpg

The funny thing is, the regular people and Tesla fans don’t really care all that much. They don;t pay attention to the stock price, all they see is that more and more people keep buying Tesla’s.

The reasonable argument is just how much % growth can a company self-sustain without cap raises? It’s written all over Musk, what a drag it is to try and pull much of it off with profit margins. If they don’t raise capital, it is very hard to see the time table (Y, Semi, Truck, roadster) progress rapidly. At some point, Tesla had 10k/wk production and some margin atop that, which multiplied together to get future products in production (not just rolling down trailer ramps). The shorts are just hyping a direction that seems to have somewhat played out.

so where is it?

Tesla Q4 Q&A: Elon Musk on where Model Y will be produced: “As I mentioned earlier, the Model Y, we think, most likely will be produced at Gigafactory…”

Tesla Q4 Q&A: Elon Musk on where Model Y will be produced: “As I mentioned earlier, the Model Y, we think, most likely will be produced at Gigafactory…”

Tesla has already said they have plans for putting automobile assembly lines at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada, to build the Model Y.

Where is the money going to come from? Serial Tesla bashers ask that every time. Strange how Tesla keeps coming up with the money for every new venture. Could it be magic? Of course, it couldn’t be that there are many, many investors who are quite eager to throw money at Tesla. Nah, that’s too simple an answer!
😀 😀 😀

See my post above. The Model Y is a bigger or taller Model 3, so it can be built on the same assembly line. That is how American Motors, Chrysler, Ford and GM did it with wagons and crossover.

You can test drive it for a week, and then return it if you don’t like it.

Sure, but I doubt it’s free. I seriously doubt that Tesla is going to return your tax, license and registration fees. That’s thousands of dollars for a test drive. You had better be sure you really want one. It does weed out the tire kickers though I guess.

Your state can’t tax you for an item you no longer have. If you return and item to a store they remove the price of the item plus the tax.

Thats far, far, far more of a hassle then popping in for a test drive

I agree with you that many people will not buy without a test drive.
However, test drives may be offered in Service Centers, Galleries, or maybe as a “At Your Home” service. Lets wait and see.

Also, currently Tesla seems to be constrained by production capacity, at least for the next few years.

I also get the test drive thing, but hey, put a couple demo cars at the service center. Problem solved.

Yeah, then in another couple of years you will realize that they had it right. They are not closing all their store and they will be offering test rides. Plus everyone who buys a Tesla usually gives a ride to numerous others who then buy it.

Every automaker would love to sell there cars online. Tesla is selling cars online reducing costs and being able to sell in all 50 states. This is a great decision saving Tesla money and lowering costs for customers. If you don’t like the car you can return it. Car delivered right to your home.

All they need to do is recruit existing owners with a finder’s fee.

We all know what the shorts will say “The base Model Y will never be produced”, they never learn.

Who said they were ending test drives?

https://www.tesla.com/drive

Can Tesla offer test drives at their galleries or their service centers? I thought they could only offer them at Tesla Stores, which are all going to be closed except for the few converted to galleries.

I dunno, Nix, but I got the impression that Tesla is now (or soon will be) offering the 1-week return policy precisely because most potential buyers will not be able to take a test drive. If Tesla can continue to make test drives just as available without any stores, then that will be great!

They offer test drives at service centers and it’s not uncommon to see cars on display.

They can offer test drives at galleries and service centers. I regularly get test drive invitations in a state where Tesla sales are forbidden.

I expect that practice will continue and be expanded. Only the selling stores (in states that allow them) are going away, and some of them will simply become galleries.

Y should start at the Standard Range Plus as the base model, at about $40,700 and go up from there. But here is where Tesla is disrupting the ICE industry once again with their profit model charging $6k to $8k more for the SUV version of their sedans at a new 30%+ increase. Tesla will show that ICE consumers have been getting ripped off, since both the sedan and SUV cost very little in difference to manufacturer….10% based on Tesla. This 30%+ profit margin is what ICE automakers are all reading for and why they are pushing SUVs with convincing consumers they need to overpay for them, with 7-10 year financing. Next, there is the superior driveability of the lower riding sedan vs the higher geometry challenged SUVs. There is no comparison. Especially most who opt for an SUV never use the cargo capacity they ‘think’ they are getting. So those looking for the superior driving dynamics, it will be the sedan, and those looking to just get an electric SUV, the Y may be an option. But then again, I bet the Y will be low riding like the X, with just more height based on seating position to… Read more »

Which is even more true for pickup trucks which is what makes Rivian so interesting. Maybe Tesla will buy Rivian at some point…..certainly would speed up deployment for a Tesla pickup.

I doubt that Musk knows what he’s doing look at SpaceX they just sent an unmanned Dragon 9 to the International Space Station. In July they’ll be sending 4 astronauts to the ISS. Charging NASA only 20 million a seat. Soyus was charging 81 million a seat.
Boeing has there own rocket the Starliner cost NASA twice as much as Dragon 9 to produce. The Boeing Starliner uses Russian engines for the Starliner and has to use Blue Origin rockets within 5 years.
Boeing is about a decade behind SpaceX
Just like all the other automakers are about 5-10 years behind Tesla.

So true, Elon Musk knows nothing!
Now let me tell you how to run an EV company, a rocket company, an AI company, a Boring company while I type away on my keyboard explaining how I know more than Elon, blah, blah, blah.
🙂
P.S. Referencing other Trolls, not you Ron.

“I doubt that Musk knows what he’s doing”

Maybe next time they won’t forget the astronauts 😉

Hopefully everyone understood when I said I doubt Musk.
That this was for the actual doubters Musk is an incredibly innovator and does things other people don’t even dream of.

We can be very glad that nobody lacking vision as much as you is in charge at Tesla.

Another Euro point of view

Shorts will say that Elon is doing is well practiced narrative shifting.

And you, A-Eruro are one of those shorts saying the FUD.

Who said they were not doing anymore test drives? Who said they were closing all their stores?

The Model 3 is in production and generating a much needed (I hope) profit. Giving attention to the Model Y at this moment – months before launch – only serves to reduce immediate demand for the Model 3 as some consumers will delay their intended purchase. I would thus imagine that demand for the Model 3 is still greater than current production to allow for this move.

While in ICE world people are transitioning to SUVs, in electric market there is more demand for sedans, the reason being efficiency. A sedan is 10-20% more efficient than an SUV, for an ICE it is not that important (with current low gas prices), but for an electric car it is a significant range advantage. Also a lot of people use their electric car as a commuter, and a sedan works better with lower costs and depreciation.

Which will work out fine for Tesla, since they started with sedans, and their sedans are still very competitive and desirable (see S & X evolution).

Why is he calling it an SUV? I thought this was supposed to be a crossover.

Because “SUV” and “crossover” have become meaningless marketing terms, and any effort to enforce some strict definitions on those terms are pointless.

The Model Y will be a hatchback labeled an “SUV” or “CUV” / “crossover” for marketing purposes. It’s a trend; it’s why Ford says it won’t be making any more “cars”… because all the car models will be re-labeled SUVs.

Get it? Got it? Good. 😉

The Model Y is not a Sports Utility Vehicle. BTW, the first SUV was the Chevy Suburban almost a 100 years ago, and the world’s oldest model name!

3/14 reveal however 2-3 years to get into owners hands. Hoping I’m wrong and timelines can be shortened due to lessons learned and reuse of some model 3 components. So maybe 1-2 years?

Not as long as 3, the design for the Y was already finalized in Oct 2018. The Model 3 design wasn’t finalized until July 2016. It took 1 year from pencils down on Model 3 to start production, but 1.5 years to get to mass production. I would expect similar for Y, maybe early cars Oct 2019 and volume production early 2020?

Most likely Model Y will be available within a year.
We’ll know 10 days from now, lets wait…

Maybe they’ll build the Y on with the same line as the Model 3 75% of the parts are the same.
Could be Model Y may come sooner than anyone ever thought.

I once thought they’d build Y on one of the two Model 3 lines and move half of Model 3 production overseas. That was before the tent and all the problems, though. I don’t think they want to mess with Fremont any more. Better to build clean sheet facilities in China, Nevada and eventually Europe.

Tesla has already said the Model Y won’t be built on the same lines as the Model 3. (The Fremont assembly plant is already more than maxed out; that’s why they’re building cars under tents in the parking lot!) That’s why Tesla has been talking about plans to install automobile production lines at Gigafactory 1, in Nevada.

That’s true but I bet that the new lines in Sparks and China will be flex lines that can build either 3 or Y.

The last thing they need is another US production line that can build Model 3. It’s also not worth the money – tooling is close to $500m.

They won’t build a new Model 3 line, but one that could run both Model 3 and Model Y, at least in theory. It makes sense to have their lines be capable of flex production. I certainly don’t see them investing in a new stamping plant for Model 3 at GF1, but a GA line that can on paper process both vehicles makes sense to me. I would expect going forward they would want this capability at all of their factories, it gives them the flexibility to adjust vehicle mix based on demand.

Reading between the lines, it seems the M3 and MY are basically the same vehicle, but with different body build. Therefore they can easily be built on the same line.

Will be cool to see! But I won’t reserve one, no matter how good it is. The way Tesla has handled the 3, actually makes me think waiting for the hype to settle is the smartest move.

I also hope no FW doors.

Agree, but the only benefit to reserving locked me into cheaper paint 1k, AWD for 4k, lifetime premium connectivity, and guarantee of full fed credit, all at the expense of an interest free deposit for Tesla.

And you missed out on the latest price reductions and improved QC

There was no need for your reservation. All you needed to be was an existing Tesla owner, which I already am.

Musk confirmed: regular doors (on Twitter)

Can the 3 and Y please be tow rated.

I think it’s a reasonably safe bet that the Model Y will be tow rated.

> actually makes me think waiting for the hype to settle is the smartest move.

Always!

Just worked out the average PURCHASE price of all the M3 trim and battery levels to be $47500 and add 10% to that would be $52000 and that would possibly be the price of the Model Y

The Model Y with start with 4WD long range which currently starts at $47,000 for the Model 3, so expect the lowest price Model Y to be available at release to be $51,700ish.

If you can place a reservation for $1000 on the 14th then I can see Tesla might be surprisingly profitable for this quarter. Guess it all depends on how many reservations they get..

Reservations don’t go into profit (unless they make them non-refundable which is unlikely), but it will help them be cash flow positive.

Reservations will not have any impact at all on book profits or profits per share, because GAAP accounting doesn’t allow Tesla to count these dollars as profits until they actually complete the sale. It will increase cash on hand, but not profits.

That is because for every $1,000 deposit that Tesla reports in their Cash ledger, Tesla has to put a $1,000 dollar Debt on the liability side of their books. Because until they actually complete the sale, these deposits are refundable and are counted under GAAP as a debt.

Clearly i’m not an accountant but the extra free cash flow would be positive. Also the number of reservations would show the what type of demand there is out there for this kind of vehicle from Tesla.

Profitable: What about European and China sales of higher end models?

I think reservations will be much lower this time. Next on the FUDsters list is that there is no demand for a Tesla CUV because the reservations are a much smaller number than the 3.

I was expecting 5k more, does this mean the base Model Y will be RWD? (Since it costs 4k for RWD -> AWD for Model 3)

It’s more than that. Base Model 3 is $35k, cheapest AWD variantt is $47k.

But I guess the delta between LR and LR Dual Motor is $4k.

I guess it will be 10% more, than a comparable AWD Model 3. So probably 4-5k more. I also doubt they will even offer the base 3 battery version in the Y. They will want greater than 200 miles, even for the base Y. And of course they will start with the LR versions first.

So my guess is roughly 52k base price initially for the LR AWD, then the MR AWD (if they keep it) and then eventually the SR plus AWD Model Y for about 45k base price.

2 row SUV/CUV’s actually sell very well and have a huge market share in ICE sales. Tesla already has a 3-row SUV/CUV.

Moshe, The Electric Israeli

Fabulous!!!

Three rows in such a small vehicle is just stupid and useless.

Hopefully, they do something like GM did with fore aft rear seat adjustment, in Equinox. Not like that 2-row vehicle has a hard time with sales.

small four door ICE sedans can be found for under 20k.. hasn’t hurt model three demand

I suspect AWD will be standard. Like the author, can’t imagine them offering the same small battery as for the SR Model 3. Midrange would seem to be the minimum.

So $40,000+$4,000=$44,000
X 1.1 = $48,400.

Which would put the base about where is suspected.

Yeah, I think those hoping for a Model Y with the same base configuration/ trim level of the base Model 3 are gonna be disappointed. As you say, likely AWD and a larger battery pack, perhaps a Model 3 Mid Range pack, will be standard.

Depending on how much SUV, or how much baby X this will end up being, they might also have the SR+ as a base version. If the efficiency decrease is similar to what it is between the S and X, the SR+ could have 210 miles. A more traditional SUV shape will cost more range, though.

If it costs only 10% more than Model-3, then its base price should be $38,500. For sure Model-Y will have AWD standard and that’s not possible. In this case, it should be lesser than Model-3 in length and width and use height + 5 doors to maximize space.

Will it be just another crossover or has any extra feature like sliding hatch roof so that you can carry some tall items in the trunk.
Remember the SUVs from Bolinger and Rivian are highly functional and Model-Y should be able to compete with it.

Please NO falcon doors, its expensive, odd and also cuts the roofline.
Waiting anxiously for it.

I suspect that the standard Y will be the SR+ battery and RWD(but not the first version sold). It will go up from there. I also suspect that the time to go from high end models being the only thing on the platter will only last a short while. They are using 70% of the Model 3’s parts. They know how to assemble that part of it. That should be all the drive train, RWD and AWD, all the chassis and a fair portion of the interior. In addition, they know what the assembly line looks like and how much is robot and human assembly. There may be some experimenting as they have an opportunity to redesign the 30% for easier assembly, if possible.

Once they get sub assembly parts built there is nothing to keep them from bringing out other variants. Now, I am not saying out in a couple of weeks. But it shouldn’t be years like in the past.

I think AWD will be standard for the Y.

Yup. And my guess is the TM3 Standard Range battery pack will never be found in the Model Y.

“If it costs only 10% more than Model-3, then its base price should be $38,500.”

I seriously doubt it. I think Elon meant a Model Y will cost about 10% more than a Model 3 with the same options. That doesn’t mean Tesla plans to offer a RWD Model Y, nor one with only a SR TM3 battery pack.

3 row seat compact SUVs are hot garbage. If they offer a 2 and 3 row for Y, cool, let people pay for extra seats that are damn near useless. If they only offer 3 rows and the third row doesn’t fold flat, pass. And even if they do fold flat, wtf would I want to pay for seats that will (in my case) never be used. Hell, I’ll pay a premium to avoid a bench seat in the second row. Two captains chairs and a centre console for my guests, please!

I think my wife and I test drove nearly every mid size (non-luxury) SUV made last summer. The only ones with 3 rows were just vestigial appendages. The best ones such as Subaru Outback and Jeep Grand Cherokee mercifully don’t even have them. Hasn’t hurt sales as far as I can tell. It’s sorta like all the people that complain a car isn’t tow rated. The actual proportion of people who will actually use that is extremely trivial, but the proportion of people that want it ‘just in case’ is large.

Agreed, but those tiny third rows are great for carpool and stuffing the kids when grandparents are coming to dinner. Again, we recognize that small three row SUVs don’t make much market sense.
(Prius wagon in Japan has a third row!!)

March 14. Will it be at 1:59?

Your post earns you a delightful slice of warm apple pi(e).

Viking79 wins. See his comment below.

I sure hope so — love the Pi humor!!!

Not in Europe though……. 14/03/2019

Model3 Owned- Niro EV TBD- Now Model Y! TBD

KIS – Hatch the Model 3, raise it a few inches and standard Dual Motor. It may curtail the Model 3 sales enough to split the lines into two without sacrificing total builds as China ramps up and takes care of China and overseas Model 3 orders.

America loves their crossovers/CUVs. Looks like Niro will have some direct competition now.

Maybe we will get a CUV that does not slam on its brakes for every corner.

Is that why your face is flat?

my pants

10% bigger then a M3 and with a hatchback? Ive already got that—it’s called a Chevrolet Bolt EV!

Bolt is too small to be practical, at least for our family. Leaf works because a stroller fits in the back which wouldn’t fit in the Bolt. Kona has the same problem. Niro is ok.

Kids move from strollers to walking within months. Not a real good reason to dismiss a long terms purchase or to justify spending thousands more.

Your tape measure is broken.
Bolt is a foot shorter than the Leaf, which is a foot shorter than the 3. Not even the same class of vehicle.

How do I test drive Y? Do I just show up at TDS in LA at 3 14 (pi day!) at 16 hour?

Not to go on a tangent but you can sin on the dotted line, but it might help if you have a cosiner. I am pretty rad. To a certain degree, the Model X and Model Y will chart good sales for Tesla…

Are you trying to phasor me?

Last time I tried to sin on the dotted line at a car dealership they got quite testy and threw me out. Just sayin’.

You need to use protection….rookie!

Could it be because you didn’t bring a cosiner?

Go to the website there will be a console. Make sure you have a comfortable seat that can see the monitor comfortably. Enter your location and a destination. Then hit enter, routing will being. Just sit back and relax while you ride to your destination.

You’re really off to a tangent…

“About 10% bigger than Model 3”

Length: 4.85 meter?

Tesla Model Y will have exactly the same battery packs that use for the Tesla Model 3.

Will Dual Motor be standard (because it’s an EV)?
If yes, then the base version (Standard Range) will be less than $45,000.-.

“Length: 4.85 meter?”

Probably not. Probably just 10% bigger volume, not length. Expect it to be taller, like the Model X is taller than the Model S.

Please let it tow at least 3000 lbs.

I would not be surprised if the LR dual-motor would be tow-rated, like the X long-range is, though maybe not for the 5k lbs that the X is rated for. Who knows?? I guess we’ll find out.

More good news coming from Tesla Number 1 innovator. Tesla Model S 3 X Y
Just watched 60 minutes. Show about the legal lawsuit the will stop the government from subsidizing the fossil fuel industry.
Apparently the Trump administration doesn’t want it to go to trial because they know they’ll lose.
All the fossil fuel supporters that don’t even believe that the government subsidies the fossil fuel industry. The government has appealed it twice already in the 9th circuit court.
Removing the government subsidies from the fossil fuel industry will make EV’s, renewable energy and storage the low cost leader and nail the door shut on ICE and fossil fuel electricity.

Seems like wishful thinking to me. Much as I’d like to believe this can happen, I can’t imagine that a court ruling would throw out subsidies for Big Oil. It’s up to Congress to decide such things as the tax structure and federal funding, not the courts.

Watch 60 minutes it was on last night and filed the suit in November 2016. It was allowed to move forward and has gone to the 9th circuit court. The government already had to appeal the case twice. The government doesn’t want it to go to trial because they know the facts that fossil fuels contribute to Climate Change is indisputable. Alternative facts don’t work in a courtroom with a jury.

10 days before Christmas in March.

Like a little kid I can barely wait.

I’ve been waiting nearly 10 years for this announcement – a smaller electric CUV/SUV from Tesla!! So happy!

$39000 is an amazing price for AWD EV with 220 mile range.

39k would be Y with SR pack. Less than 200 mile range. I doubt they build that one.

That’s not happening.

Even if they offer the same battery pack used for the SR Model 3, AWD would add at least $4,000. Add 10% on top of that.

So that’s ($35,000+$4,000)X1.1=$42,900

Then, no way the same pack in larger, less aerodynamic vehicle is going to get 220 mile range.

Then of course, except the similar roll out as with Model 3, with the higher spec versions being produced and delivered first. Although probably faster than Model 3 ramp up, 75% of the parts should be common, and they know how to make those at scale.

What is there to unveil??? It will be another version of model S squeezed in proper direction and it will have an cheap iPad in the middle of console instead of expensive cockpit! What is there so darn interested about it??

It is interesting because it will be another superior and compelling Tesla vehicle with excellent software that will destroy the MB, BMW, Audi and other inferior ICE competition with poorly integrated software Markus.

The appearance is up in the air… it could be better than the X (in many people’s opinions) or it could be worse… that, plus pricing and trim packages are the relevant concerns that will be answered, for better or worse, on 3/14.

Wonder if the Y will get air suspension as an option for better highway efficiency, but more ground clearance for off-road.

Will it have true off-road capabilities?

I’d like a model y for going up in the mountains, camping, towing a small trailer, etc. I’d like a model 3 also for around town, and long road trips that don’t require clearance and/ AWD. I think plenty of families will opt to have a Y and a 3.

Yep, we will replace my wife’s Bolt with a Y to go with my Model3.

Same here. If it has ground clearance of at least 8.5″ (Subaru Crosstrek has 8.7″), I’ll be putting down a deposit asap. My 4runner has 11″ so the Y wouldn’t be as offroad-worthy but I could live with it most of the time, although I’m routinely in places where even the 4Runner is at its limit. (I live in the mountain west and have to go offroad regularly to help out some non-profits.)

“They can’t be competitive with ICE if it does not have 3 rows of seats, it’s that simple.”

How absurd. Comparatively few people drive a car or light truck with 3 rows of seats.

Those who want a Tesla with 3 rows of seats can buy a Model X. The only way Tesla could get 3 rows in the Model Y would be to make the back row rear-facing, and then it would likely be just jump seats, or seats for very small people.

I’d like to pretend the Model S rear facing seat might be an option? Already engineered.
Could it be made appropriate for a forward facing application? We don’t need much, just enough for kids till they are 8 or 9.

How right you are, Magnus. They keep talking about the S, the X and the 3, but have you ever actually seen one on the road?
Oh, they sold 60,000 3’s in the US in Q4 of 2018? Who knew?

The real question for Magnus in denial is what laggard, legacy LICE manufacturer does he work for?

The production of the Standard Range Rear Wheel Drive Standard Interior Tesla Model Y for less than $40,000.- will start in 2021.

We’ll see.

IF it ever actually happens.

Save my $ for next generation full EV Macan

High end versions first. Wont be till mid to late 2020 that base version is available.

Model 3 can merrily go about its business.

Tesla has always been family oriented. Besides their incredible crash test results, they even went so far as to but a 3rd row in their sedan (which I have and is awesome). I suspect that the 3rd row in the Model Y will at least be an option, otherwise families will still have no BEV available to them for under $88,000.

If this CUV will be competing in Europe against other MPVs your argument is valid, but not really applicable to the US.
Two row “premium” CUVs mostly sell to small families and empty nester Baby Boomers.
Would I pay thousands extra for a third row that can fit small children? Absolutely, but can’t imagine we are a demographic driving this segment.
But, there was really no business reason to put an optional rear facing kids seat in the Model S, but it was an option for years.

This March 14 Elon Musk is bringing the S3XY to Pi day.

Good call – totally missed that. Perfectly nerdy!

Why doesn’t the author think there won’t be a standard battery? You would have to imagine Tesla would rather sell a potential customer a $40Kish Model Y vs a $35K Model 3…

Range, range, range! If the SR gets 220mi in the 3, then the Y most likely won’t reach beyond 200 or 205. Who’s going to buy that?

The SR+ gets 240mi with the 3, so the Y should get a solid 220 or 225 miles. I don’t see the potential loss of sales being more than the cost savings of having 1 less version to manufacture.

Besides, he only promised that the 3 would start at $35k. No such promise was made for the Y. 🙂

I tend to agree with others here, that the base Y will not be the same as the base 3. The unavoidable range penalty for the SUV/CUV/whatever format will probably have them end up doing what they just did with the S and X: the S has a standard and long range, while the X just has the long range.

My guess is that the 3SR is a software-limited SR+ pack, and that the Y will eventually go no lower than the + in pack size, leaving a base price of probably $40k.

Additionally, Musk can blame a bigger body on a higher price, but since these form factors sell so well, they can gouge a little and still have a demand higher than they can produce.

I would also expect that a 3rd row option, if it exists, would be at most $3k, since that’s all it is for the X (so, probably $2k).

Yeah, I would expect something such as:
YSR+ 215mi $40k Plus interior
YMR 240mi $43k Premium
YLR 305mi $46k
YD 295mi $50k
PYD 295mi $61k

Unless dual-motor is standard, then the prices will go up more, something, perhaps, like:
YMRD 220mi $46k Premium
YLRD 295mi $50k
PYD 295mi $61k

The only reason I would buy the Y over the 3 is if it is a hatchback, my biggest complaint against the 3 is the trunk….I hate trunks!! I wish the 3 was just a smaller model S with the Sportback hatch. What I really want is a Wagon…but in America we have to put a lift kit on them and call them an SUV. Like the e-Tron, it’s totally a Wagon, but of course it’s not, it’s an SUV.

It will have to be a hatch, I would think. Of all the things to worry about regarding the design of the Y, whether it’s a hatch is probably the least likely of being a disappointment.

I still think it will be another 5k drop in price of the Tesla M3 & MY next year that will push the legacy ICE manufacturers to get serious and start pushing volume out. Until then, they can keep overpricing their ok EV’s by limiting demand to 20 to 40k per year globally. That’s what we have with Leaf and Bolt and all the others. Tesla needs to keep pushing prices down and needs to come out with an Economy car in 2 years time. A 22k 200 mile Tesla Model C. Stands for Compact ICE killer.

I don’t see much more of a price drop happening. The largest drop that I can fathom would be dropping the SR entirely and having the $35k Model 3 being the SR+ at the beginning of 2020, after the US Federal tax credit ends.

Also, as I recall, Musk said that there’s no way they will be able to go further down-market. Not anytime soon. They don’t have the manufacturing capacity for steady-state 3 and Y sales, much less for the Pickup and the Semi and the new Roadster. It will take many, many years, even by Tesla standards, to build up enough manufacturing capacity to build a Civic-killer EV.

The new Model Y is just a bigger Model 3, using the basic platform and power train. Sine the beginnings of the 20th century many manufacturers, included American Motors, Chrysler, Ford, GM,, and others less known, did this to create wagons and other vehicles. And recently, they did the same to create crossovers. So Tesla is copying this 100+year old idea.

Nothing new under the Californian sky!

Well, yeah, we already get that – what’s your point? Simply lifting something doesn’t make it look good. The physical appearance, prices and trims are going to be what matters.