Tesla Model Y Delivery Timing Raises Concerns: Video

MAR 15 2019 BY MARK KANE 247

Tesla Model Y Long-Range is one and a half away from today.

The recently unveiled Tesla Model Y seems to be well received but – as you can see in this CNBC video – there are some who are disappointed by the roll out plan.

Garrett Nelson, senior analyst at CFRA Research said that it was expected that production/deliveries of Model Y would start in H1 2020, but with an official launch date of Fall 2020, there could be an entire lineup of competitors by then.

The problem is in timing, especially since Tesla usually has some delays and the rollout might not necessarily transition smoothly into volume deliveries. On the other hand, competitors also are not immune to the problems (just to name a few with launch delivery issues – Audi e-tron, Jaguar I-PACE or Hyundai Kona Electric/Kia Niro EV).

The truth is that as more electric car models enter the market, the less space is between them. Times of easy market conquest seen in the Tesla Model S era are in the past. In the next decade, there will be multiple models in each segment, so manufacturers will need to compete directly with each other. Tesla Model Y will need to beat at least several other models.

The other problem with timing is that Tesla will not have any federal tax credit when the Model Y hits the market, but let’s hope that the high scale of production and strong performance will it enable to succeed.

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247 Comments on "Tesla Model Y Delivery Timing Raises Concerns: Video"

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Tesla killers….blah blah blah CNBC!!!!!
Its 8 yrs since model S….Where is the competition with a comparable car???????????????????

That competition is on the way – big time. Market up 143 points, GM up, Ford up, FCA up, Tesla down $15 per share. One thing I did not read – Where will the Model Y be produced? Model 3 reservation cost: $1,000, Model Y reservation cost: $2500. Delivery at least 18 months away. Will be very interesting to see how many raise their hands with a confirmed deposit. Hope Tesla releases this figure to install confidence in the marketplace. One also wonders that if the Model Y is the company savior, why was it not produced before the Model 3? Given the small percentage difference between the 3 and the Y, who will select the 3 months from now? Thus it may make sense to produce the Y in Freemont, and throttle down production of the 3 as needed for Y capacity. Hope this works for Mr. Musk.

Why should Tesla “install confidence in the marketplace”??

Tesla should spend all it’s energies on making a great product. Short terms tactics to appease the markets are not beneficial to Tesla at this stage.

“marketplace” as in the consumer, not the stock market. One will be loaning Tesla $2500 for at lease 18+ months. The more confirmed deposits, the better the consumer will feel.

@Bruce Sanders – What nonsense is this?
I didn’t order any of my ICE/BEVs by knowing the vehicles prior sales or even deposits.

I didn’t preorder my Model 3.
I’m planning to get a Model Y but won’t preorder because my preferred options is not yet available. When they’re building it, I’ll buy it. Simple.

There is no purchase decision that is helped by a disclosure of confirmed deposits. If anything, I almost didn’t get my Model 3 because of the reported confirmed deposits.

The only people that care about deposits are the self-professed stock analysts writing yet another “Tesla is going to die” prediction.

The more confirmed deposits, the better the consumer will feel.”

No, I think it’s safe to say that’s you, and you alone. 🙄

“The more confirmed deposits, the better the consumer will feel.”

Funny, but ICE car companies don’t have ANY confirmed deposits on ANY of their mass market ICE cars. Consumers don’t seem to give a damn. Why would this all the sudden be some big problem just for Tesla?

Sounds like yet another anti-Tesla double standard fabricated out of fake Concern Trolling.

ICE companies don’t offer reservations, at least not to Tesla scale.

But I don’t know why that’s a concern. There is zero competition to Tesla. If one thinks Tesla is / will be in trouble, he’s assuming ALL EV will be in trouble and ICE companies’ EV will be even in worse shape.

In US you don’t see orders, because dealers order the cars. If dealers do not order some model there will be concerns. In Europe people order ICE cars as well.

Ha! In 1984, I had a Sports Car, with less capacity, but similar performance – to the lesser versions of the Y, that had blown an Engine, and for 6 Months, I made Payments of $670.00 per Month, on a Car I Could not drive! Engine Replacements were not easy to find, as it was an aftermarket Turbocharged 12A Wankel Rotary, on a 1983 RX7 GSL-SE!

Wage Related Inflation says, about Triple that Number, in Today’s $$, so about $2,000 “A Month”, times 6 Months!

For folks that can afford this vehicle, the $2,500 is like one – two weeks pay! Or Should be, at most! Less than typically paid up front, for a Future Vacation, in many cases!

With the possible exception of possibly the VW ID Crozz, all the competitors coming at the same time have less range and cost more and offer less. Do you think i3 with its 250 mile WLTP (likely 225 EPA) will cost less than gas X3 ($41,000)? Model Y offers more cargo space.

Viking79, more importantly, are any of those models intended to be produced at anything near Model Y volume?

Exactly, everyone is saying Tesla Killers are coming, but if they each make 20k cars per year, if they lucky all of them combined may sell as many cars as Tesla, lol. Also all those cars that have been announced by competition are more than welcome, I like variety now show me you can make an EV as good as Tesla.

Elon stated that engineering staff are now focused on the solar side of the business to get that back up to capacity, and then back to Model Y. So instead of trying to offer all the different types of solar shingles, tesla will upgrade and improve the one, and get production up to meet the 3 years demand in the backlog, and then refocus back on building the Model Y assembly line process. Because they can’t touch the Model 3 production that is finally humming along.

My guess is 1st quarter is focus on solar, the second and 3rd quarter is Model Y production engineering. 4th quarter is testing…but wait…the Semi is to launch this year. Ahh….so that’s why there is a delay in Model Y, so the Semi can get launched, then Y engineering early next year with production starting in the second half, then to China to set up for Model 3 production there.

I think Tesla is now capable of walking and chewing gum at the same time.

While Juggling, and Blinking!

I don’t know how designing cars and design solar cells have anything to do with one another, but ok.

Also, in two more years Tesla’s rapidly expanding charging infrastructure will be light years beyond anything any other auto maker will ever have to offer, it already is in fact.

Agree completely. Having driven LEAFs for 4 years before buying a Model X… I can attest to how well and smoothly the Tesla Navigator integrated, dynamically updated, availability monitored, supercharger system that is 150 miles from 99% of the US population. When you enter a destination you get the route, availability of chargers (which update as you go) , percent of battery that will remain when you arrive for charge, what amenities are nearby. Along busy routes they have added sites with as many as 50 Superchargers so that waits will be minimized even at the busiest times. The competition is 2 to 5 years from matching just the location count… not the charger count… 1 to 2 chargers per location is inadequate. The app integration with the car systems to give real time routing and availability will be far more challenging for the other automakers as they outsource their infotainment components which usually don’t interconnect for anything but power. SO… Tesla will still be in a league of its own for at least the next 2 to 4 years… and they keep innovating. Notice that the new “killers” are truly positioned against the Tesla Model S of 2012… the… Read more »
What’s most important about Tesla models that the competition can’t compete with is the technology. No other automaker can compete with Autopilot and the over the air updates Tesla offers where customers get enhancements and new features on a regular basis. The car becomes new again, over and over again. Then there is the driving dynamics, power and efficiency or more range. No one can get close to what Tesla models offer. Then on top of that is the Supercharger network that just got even better. Just thinking about buying another brands EV HAS to come with thinking about what you will give up, by not buying a Tesla. No Autopilot, No feature adding over the air updates and No Supercharger network. It will be a decision they would have to keep justifying in their minds over and again when they hear about another feature offered with a Tesla update. I also think with the launch of the Y production, Tesla may think about actually marketing the lineup and even product placement on movies or at TV show. Because even today, I am having to explain what a Tesla is to adult family members…especially the females that are a large… Read more »

The other factor to remember is that Wall Street’s quarter obsessed analysts always miss is the enlarging market… if it keeps growing rapidly as the Model 3 and other quality EVs emerge then the pie will be big enough for all who join in. Some have even theorized that the pool of available models and cars may not grow fast enough for demand in a year or 2. Gonna be fun to watch.

iX3 competes with dual motor at $51,000. It also has full $7500 credits and Tesla will be done so net $58,500 is even. I don’t doubt it starts very much in that range.

Lol down votes for factual information. Is this evannex or a Tesla forum??


You only addressed part of the equation in the post you were responding to.

You failed to account for the “less range” part of the either/or statement. The version you price quote will have significantly less range when rated by the EPA. Likely at least 25% LESS range.

Go ahead and downvote me for correcting your error in your so-called “factual information” that left out very important facts that make your post an erroneous response to the post you responded to.

Competes against does not mean is better than in every respect, yeesh.

And not at least 25% less than the dual motor it competes directly against. Please don’t make “factual information” up.

Ugh, EV fans already compromise when they compare vapor. Right now, look what BMW has, look how they’ve drib/drab improved it. Expect a repeat, maybe buy the VW-owned Bugatti toy, if you want what the Germans do.

Out of curiousity, how do you know the availability of the iX3? Or launch dates? Hell, even the price for that matter with trade tariffs in place. BMW is in no place to compete with Tesla EVs for the forseeable fuiture.

What significance do stock market quotes have on this discussion? Answer: none.

Yeah, I too noticed this guy started off his comment by showing his real interest is the stock market, not Tesla or plug-in EVs. Apparently he got lost on his way to making a Tesla bashing post at Shrieking Alpha. 🙄

Ford and GM is doing crap

Whistling past the graveyard.

Ford and GM? Yep.

There isn’t a lot of competition, yet as the Tesla is a midsize…Have fun shorting Tesla…Most likely at the GF1 or Fremont if not…At least hundred thousand reservations are in order…Tesla must deliver semi’s before the Model Y…Model Y isn’t a savior, the $35K Model 3 and as far game changing the semi and roadster 2.0 will literally chnage the world…

I think you’re right, because there actually still is a 1 in 3 market for cars even, though major OEMs think they can get us all in Light Trucks, and run from the CAFE Car standards. People want the technology. Some even give a sh!t about how much transportation CO2 has become the center-piece in US emissions. Some just want something that handles better..

I don’t think they will get many reservations. We saw with the Model 3 that a reservation didn’t really help you much — maybe you get a car 3-6 months earlier, but you’re getting an early release that is more likely to have issues or lack of initial improvements. If the Y ships in quantity from the beginning, being at the front of the line may not buy you much.

I think that is quite deliberate. They know they will not get a repeat of 400k reservations, and they are much more interested in firm orders for the initial higher priced cars. They will expect maybe only 10k.

The whole ‘early release versions’ will be a non issue as the Y is for all intents and purposes a slightly inflated 3 which they’ve already built hundreds of thousands of.

Doesn’t work like that. Even building the model 3 in another location would have issues. Small variations in the floor, machine spacing, etc… require adjustments to the line. Now you’re building a new model that while based on the model 3 from a platform could be a different assembly process.

There are going to be ZERO “RESERVATIONS” for Model Y!

Model 3 “Reservations” were just a Hand Raise! These deposits go to a specific Car Configuration, if your own Selection, with a Known Final Price, Up Front! There are, Infact, “Specific, Custom, ORDERS!”

Yes, with a long Lead Time!

@Bruce Sanders said: “That competition [against Tesla] is on the way – big time….”

Yup… the now very familiar “Tesla killers arriving soon”… like that certain Tesla Killer Chevy Bolt.

Glad to see more all-electric cars making it to production but likely Tesla will continue to remain the dominate all-electric car maker in North America and Western Europe for several years to come.

Reality is traditional car makers are organizationally mostly focused on next few years ICE sales… the next few years of all-electric car sales is a sideline topic. Which is understandable if you are a large public multi-national ICE car maker having to placate near-term street analysts performance expectations. But that gives Tesla a huge advantage of competing against a highly distracted competitor.

I don’t think Chevy ever called the Bolt a Tesla killer. They did say it was the first EV with a 200+ mile range for $30k after federal tax rebate. For 2 years it held that crown.

Competition may be on the way but without supercharger network….

Bruce Sanders said:

“That competition is on the way – big time. Market up 143 points…

You appear to be confused; very confused. The day-to-day stock market fluctuation has nothing to do with whether or not legacy auto makers will ever produce a car that will actually compete in any meaningful way with Tesla’s cars. But your comment certainly shows your true motive for posting here: an agenda of greed rather than interest in electric vehicles.

“One thing I did not read – Where will the Model Y be produced?”

Gosh, I would hate to spoil your almost perfect state of ignorance on the subject. 🙄

Where is the EV competition? At what volumes? The few that have come out are low volume, and have had problems, like the I-Pace and e-tron.

Furthermore, as Musk pointed out at the reveal, he is welcoming the competition. They are years behind Tesla in critical ways: in EV technology, battery cost, and production volume. They will catch up, eventually, and Musk would be the first to tell you that they need to, because Tesla can’t supply the world with EVs themselves.

The real competition is traditional models. There are too few EVs being made in respectable volumes to crowd each other out. Will there be some cross-shopping? Sure! But there’s plenty of market share to be had by all that are willing to come to the table with a compelling EV.

Model Y is Not The Company Savior! And, it’s also not a Bet The Farm product, either! Elon Said the Model 3 was Tesla’s Last such Effort! However, as the Coming Kia Soul EV, for 2020, with the “Long Range” variant just slightly more Range, than the “Standard Range” Model Y, and is not Competitive on Cargo Space, or Luggage Space, quite as Completely as it could, with over 8.5 Cubic Feet Less Volume, than the Y!

Plus, where to charge? 2019 is planned to be Tesla’s Step up to V.3.0 Supercharger’s, and that includes Cross Canada Access (As He stated, the wait for V.3.0 is why Canada has not moved forward yet, but it’s on its way!

With Model Y to be Produced In USA, China, & in Europe – I think even if any one site produces less than Fremont did for Model 3, at 1 Year In, it will still be like Triple as many, overall!

I will argue that over 90% of all EV charging occurs at home.

Another Euro point of view

I sort of agree with that, for example the German premium car industry have a tendency to design cars for old guys (long bonnet and plenty of buttons) now that’s their market so I guess it’s OK, the 25 years old are not so much interest in car ownership at all in growing area’s of the world. Also, the high income young tech nerd is a somewhat geographically restricted phenomenon (California and a few cities around the world).

Unlike Tesla, Germans have Apple carplay

I load a 128 GB thumb drive of music into my Tesla that doesn’t have Apple carplay and hit the Superchargers with hundreds of hours of music. And when that’s done, I listen to thousands of hours of free streaming music on Tesla’s endless music streaming apps.

Now that the USB recalls the last song played and starts without having to select the output, life is good.

I LOVE the USB. So much music, it’s crazy.

USB is nice, but missing Pandora big time. Tesla takes voice activated song requests wonderfully, but brings together song stations awfully.

Besides apple maps (which are constantly rated worse than google maps and Waze), what can CarPlay do that Tesla can’t?

Can Tesla mirror apps that you already have on your phone?

All these downvotes but no answer to my legitimate questions. I sincerely don know The answer. Is a downvote saying, no, Tesla doesn’t offer that functionality?

Can Tesla read text messages and take voice dictation to reply?

Does Tesla have google maps? CarPlay does.

Does Tesla have Pandora or Spotify?

Does Tesla have podcasts? Audible books?

Unimportant, until I can Sleep in the car while traveling, or not, my choice!

I listen to audiobooks on my commute all the time. Don’t have a lot of time to pleasure read for myself. So catchup on books in the car. Love the screen integration that CarPlay offers. Simpler and easier and safer than poking at the phone to do it.

The cheapest smartphones can do that, so…..


“…the 25 years old are not so much interest in car ownership at all in growing area’s of the world.”

I’d don’t care how many times that spurious claim is repeated, it’s B.S.. Twenty-somethings might be carrying a higher debt load due to the skyrocketing cost of education and healthcare, but they still want to own a car just like previous generations.

Yeah, I think most if not all of this talk about “the younger generation isn’t interested in owning a car” is just fallout from the class warfare waged by the very rich against the middle class and working poor for the past 30 years. Many of the former middle class have lost good paying jobs and are now struggling or poor, as the very rich grab more and more wealth for themselves.

So the children of the newly struggling or poor pretend they don’t want a car, because they can’t afford one.

Not a fact.

German car makers have desperately been trying to reduce buttons for the last two decades. That’s why BMW introduced the iDrive in 2001, and all the other car makers have been building their own systems too. Why? Because buyers hated the wall of buttons.

Now all the sudden after 2 decades, Tesla crushes them at their own game of replacing buttons with high tech interfaces, and people like you pretend that car makers were never trying to reduce button counts in the first place…..

Sadly, you are only fooling yourself, and those who wish to be fooled.

This is dumb. If you like to drive, you like to execute control while looking out the front. Simple ergonomics and safety. It’s not an “old” guy “young person” thing.

People like to drive. The German’s problem is leaving driver’s cars behind, and joining the touch-screen safari.

There is no Tesla killer, but as more manufactures enter it more like termites. One model doesn’t have to “kill” Tesla or have the availability of a Tesla model, but combined they “could” hurt Tesla sales. For all the sales of the model 3 Tesla just barely made a profit and that’s while they weren’t doing any other expansion at the time. 2019 is back to expansion mode with the China plant and getting ready for the Model Y.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

Concerned with the rollout?

Have any of them tried to go buy any of those compliance EV’s that have been out for a few months already?

and where’s the competition for the S and X? How long have they been out????

This is the kind of Nokia level arrogance that puts companies in trouble. I for one chose a competing model over Tesla Model 3.

Oh the irony of your second line.

I was thinking of the irony of the 1st line 🙂

Psssst, a Prius isn’t a competitor to the Model 3… 🙂

“Psssst, a Prius isn’t a competitor to the Model 3… “

Now, that is a dumb comment.

EV’s are trying to displace (or replace) ICE’s so by construction, EV’s compete against ICE / hybrids et al. If Toyota drops the price of a Prius against a Model 3 (that no longer gets Federal Tax credits), that Prius is now a great competitor against the Model 3.

Model 3 tax credits are going away. Let’s not lose sight of reality. One of the compelling reasons to buy a Model 3 was the $7,500 tax credit (that no longer applies).

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Given that Toyota in February didn’t give a breakdown of the 3,660 “Prius” sales, which now includes the liftback, Prime, c and the occasional v dreg, even though they now have a breakdown for every other model, I think we can be confident that the declining Prius isn’t a competitor.

“…that Prius is now a great competitor against the Model 3.”

Just about any car will sell if you slash the price far enough. That doesn’t make it a “competitor” of any Tesla car, by a country mile. You might as well say the Yugo was a “great competitor” of Rolls-Royce. I’m sure it outsold every model Rolls made, during the years the Yugo was produced!

How long have u owned it & how much is resale?

Resale doesn’t matter. I bought a Clarity PHEV. After tax credits it was cheaper than a comparable Civic. I use about 1 gallon of gas per 200 miles. I didn’t even have to spend money on a Level 2 charger at home.

I never thought there could be a car uglier than the Prius, then the Clarity came along

I hope you enjoy your Clarity PHEV, but a Model 3 competitor, it is not. The handling and 0-60 times are way off. The Model 3, even the SR, is a performance sedan (all Teslas are performance vehicles). In terms of price and performance, it’s going after the BMW 3 and 5 series, Audi A4, etc.

Yes, but my car was $21k after tax credits and it has some features that you can’t find in the base Model 3 (heated seats for example). I also saved $1000 because I don’t need to install a level 2 charger. Model 3 has better performance, but the ergonomics are not good and I am pretty sure the standard interior will be disappointing to whoever compares this car to a Audi A4. It is also smaller inside and build quality is lower than Honda. You decide which one is more important. I can get tickets all day if I use 80% of the Clarity performance. Also in a long road trip I will make it faster than Model 3. Finally it remains to be seen how Model 3 will hold up after 100k miles.

Duh! for a measly 2k more you get heated seats and lots of other stuff. What about powered seats, user memory, nice big graphic navigation screen with voice commands, a better user interface, probably better sound system, better performance, better looks, front trunk (maybe more storage) better traction control performance even with just rwd (more like a 4wd in comparison), the seats are very comfortable. What about being the safest car ever made? EVER? I guess you life does matter much to you anyway. Have you ever driven one? The drivetrain the the model 3 is the same on the semi which has been tested to 1 million miles. Do you have any clue what you are talking about? Does going on a trip only mean you drive as much as possible and do not take breaks and drive fatigued and get in an accident. Breaks are time to charge. It makes no difference if there is charging time. Why don’t you ask people who actually use the cars. Maybe breaks are a time to look around, explore, actually see where you are traveling. Maybe that is why tesla cars are 3 to 4 times less likely to get in… Read more »

Then do not claim you bought a Model 3 comepitor.

I definitely compared it to Model 3. I had a deposit for a Model 3 for 2 years. But looks like you know better than me about my car buying thought process.

LOL. How are you getting 200 miles on a gallon? You would have to be charging. So I thought you did not spend money on the charger? The 1 gallon is not the only thing to account for if you are charging as well. I think your statement is deceptive. No phev can get 200 miles on a gallon because it is basically electric with a generator, and no ev can get 200 miles/gallon equivalent. How quickly would the gas savings pay for the charger and then continue to save you money over years anyway?

When I actually see another car that compares to the model 3 with the user interface, ease of use, performance, looks, handling and storage space and offers the charging network coverage, then I will concede. I have been in or seen countless cars both ice and ev, and all of their designs, user interfaces, navigation screens, and dash designs are either mornic, stupid, complicated, or nonsensical. I could start to go on and on of how things are poorly designed. Spend a day or so in a model 3 and I can’t wait to her your response. The problem is mostly all of us have seen your typical car from just about anyone, but fewer have seen or used the model 3, so actually most who speak against the model 3, are speaking from ignorance.

The Polestar 2, the only Model 3 competitor, is sold out for first year production. Start of production is 2020.
Have fun.

@MaartenV NL said: ” Polestar 2, the only Model 3 competitor, is sold out for first year production. Start of production is 2020. Have fun.”

I hope the Polestar 2 does well once it does go into volume production and competes against Tesla.

Easy to sell out when production numbers are so low.

What you are countless others and even the media and the manufacturers have seen to ignore, is that there are countless design flaws in many of these cars. Tesla has been aware of these design and functional details from the start. I do not see polestar doing things any differently than some of these others. The only one who is going to pay is the consumer. Let me explain my ill informed friend. Lion cells need to be charged at a decreasing rate as they fill up. They also need to be temperature maintained properly. Cold is not bad but it does reduce performance and slows rapid charging. Heat is bad and damages the battery. Rapid charging at too high a rate creates heat and damages the battery. If these companies do not do it right, you are going to suffer with shorter battery life in your vehicle and get screwed. The ipace, kona, and nero all have issues maintaining enough heat and heating enough to allow for rapid charging in cold weather which will prolong your trip. The etron is stated as having a high constant rapid charge to 80 or 90 percent which will damage and ruin the… Read more »

Sold out. LOL. For how many cars? 20k. 30k. That is nothing. That “sold out” does not mean anything. Try using facts that actually have some significance to them. Model 3 had over 400k reservations. The model s and x at 100k sell that in 2 quarters or less.

Not sure where you’ve been, but Tesla hasn’t been sitting on its ass like Nokia did- have you been paying attention to what Tesla’s been doing the last 6 months??

I’m sorry for you.

And WHAT would that be? A Polestar 2?

So you went with Nokia?

You are kidding right? Where is everyone else? Tesla could sit for 3 years and nobody would be where they are now. Others have announced and shown cars for 2020 that are not where tesla is now. Tesla has been doing updates constantly, adding features and even increasing range on the lr rwd by over the air updates and increasing performance after collecting reliability and performance data. They have announced supercharging v3. I can see you are clueless. Keep your sucky car. I know from having seen any possible car you have, that the user interface, features, performance upgradability and charging network does not offer anything like what Tesla does. I wonder if you have even ever driven a tesla or used it for a few days. You might think differently. Otherwise I wonder if you are just blind, deaf, or just in an alternative reality. Your value proposition is probably not there either even if our tesla model 3 was more money. I just will laugh and know that you are a fool of a consumer and got duped while the tesla owners like me got the better car and better value. As they say, more for the rest… Read more »

There is also a reason why the model 3 was rated “the most fun car to drive” of any car, period.

These analyst are clueless. Some big guy analyst was expecting late 2019. With no production capacity it is impossible to launch a new car in 9 months. They need a brand new production line in Gigafactory. I think even late 2020 is suspect.

The Model 3 production line was built in less time.

(Admittedly, it took quite a while after that to get it to meaningful volumes… But that’s a different story — and presumably should be much easier for the Model Y.)

Model 3 was in an existing factory with infrastructure in place. Model Y needs a new production facility. I am not sure it is much easier.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

The hard bit isn’t the building. It’s parts and assembly. That’s why the sharing is important.

As far as I’m aware, apart from the paint shop, the Model 3 lines are pretty much entirely separate from the Model S and X lines — so the fact that they were added at an existing facility is meaningless.

“The Model 3 production line was built in less time.”

But the Model 3 production line didn’t need installation of stamping machines, a paint shop, nor some other major parts of a complete automobile production line. Those major parts were already there and already operating.

Installing a complete new production line, from start to finish, at Gigafactory 1, will take awhile. So will fine-tuning it for volume production. Fall of 2020 is possible for start of Model Y production, but only if there are no major delays.

Let’s not forget what happened when Tesla tried to jump-start Model 3 production, advancing the timeline by 6 months. Turned out that they should have waited that 6 months before starting. Volume production would have started out about that time anyway, and if they had taken the time to (for example) set up the battery pack production lines at Gigafactory 1 properly, there would have been much less drama and angst, and much less wasted time and money.

I think Tesla has learned its lessons from that major fiasco. At least I hope so, and the announced timeline for Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai seems to indicate realistic plans.

Actually, a new stamping press was among the first things installed for Model 3 production…

For reference, the buildings for the first parts in Shanghai are supposed to be ready in May, while initial production is supposed to start in September… Four months for setup. And that includes stamping and paint shop.

The things that were rushed in Model 3 production were not installation of the machines. It’s designing the lines, lining up suppliers etc. which takes a lot of time. And all that is likely already underway for Model Y. (It appears to be much closer to production than the Model 3 was at the time of its unveiling.)

Then what do you think about GF going into early production in less than 10 months?

I can’t help but notice that Fall 2020 is awfully close to the 2021 timeline Maxwell Technologies gave for large scale commercialization of their dry electrode technology.

I’m guessing that’s more coincidence than anything.

Elon said in this very presentation that they had a similar reason for delaying many Supercharger installs, to wait for V3.

That’s *not* the same situation. They won’t be replacing the batteries in existing cars once they have a slightly cheaper way to produce new cells…

They aren’t replacing V2 Superchargers, just adding V3, more stalls is better and not all cars will be able to take advantage of V3.

Elon said they would be upgrading V2 stalls to V3 slowly over time.

Roy, go back and watch the release video. All V2 Superchargers are being updated to V3. This is possible because superchargers are based on a modular design.

Also, ALL Tesla’s will benefit from the upgrade to V3 chargers, even those not capable of full 250 kW charging. All Tesla’s will now benefit from getting full charging rate even when cars are plugged into both plugs, and will see both higher max charging rates, as well as better charging rates throughout taper.

You mean they wont upgrade cells and packs in Models they currently sell once it is available to them? I guess thats why the top Model S battery is still 85kWh. Don’t be silly. They will absolutely take advantage of this as soon as it is available to them, both for cost savings and improvements to energy density.

I was talking about existing *cars*, not about existing model lines. Yes, new production will get new cells — but not the cars they already produced. That makes it different from Supercharger technology upgrades.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Yes, but that was bull, the Supercharger network buildout slowed due to cash shortfall in 2018Q3.

2017 Supercharger buildout plans were intentionally delayed because the Model 3 was delayed. They simply didn’t need the chargers for cars that weren’t built yet.

Then there was an additional short term delay for upgrading site plans for V3 superchargers.

There was no cash shortfall in 2018Q3. Tesla had $3.1 Billion in cash on hand in Q3 of 2018, up from the previous 2 quarters.

You’re over-generalizing. The timeline you cite is most likely just coincidence. Tesla is following plans for Model Y production which date back several years. Contrariwise, this Maxwell electrode tech looks like something pretty recent, at least from the scientific paper they published.

Ev’s aren’t competing against EVs. They’re competing against ICE vehicles. Plenty of room for everyone…

They are starting to with anyone who has previously bought an EV. My choice for next vehicle is one of a multitude of EVs. Based on last night, that is Model Y at front. Polestar 2 maybe, and same with ID Crozz.

Almost enough to base a “Who’s on First” routine, on.

Not so sure about that. It’s much more likely that a person who is considering buying an electric car would comparison shop between different EVs than a person who is considering buying a gas car would also consider electric cars. EVs are still a niche market with only 1 mainstream electric car currently in existence in the US. And that market is only going to increase as more compelling vehicles are added that are demonstrably better than not only gas cars, but also other EVs.

Exactly. Only our conclusions differ – with 98% of all sales, ICEs are the competition. It is silly, IMO, to think that EVs will be competing for 2% of the overall market from here out. As always, crappy cars will not be sold for long and competitive cars will find a market – that doesn’t mean that EVs will be stuck in a 2% EV only ghetto where they only compete with each other for 2% of the market in perpetuity. Each good offering will also be able to compete with the 98% of cars that are not EVs. And each crappy (compliance car?) EV and ICE model will simply not be competitive at any notable level for any length of time.

Just look at what cars were traded in for the Model 3 (link below). A lopsided majority were gasmobiles… if you count the non-plug-in Prius as a “gasmobile”.

Selling compelling PEVs (Plug-in EVs) is not a zero-sum game. Compelling PEVs compete mainly with gasmobiles for sales, not primarily with each other. That shouldn’t be surprising, as 98% of the market is gasmobiles!


Really? Then why does all the legacy car makers speak of Tesla killers? Why do media ppl compare leafs to model S/X?

Which ones say ‘Tesla killer’?

One or two models have been touted as “Tesla killers” (think the Polestar is one?), but mostly it’s just the media trying to pin that label on every new model of PEV, to gin up a false head-to-head competition which largely deosn’t exist.

M3 owned, Y reserved.

Sure it does. An ice conversion may happen as the source of the sale, but there’s certainly direct competition for that buyer and similar EVs will be cross shopped just like with other ice competitors

It is always impressive to see how US citizens and especially US journalists are not aware that the USA are not the only country in the word. Less demand in the US? who cares since most other countries have been waiting the model 3 for 3 years. No more incitives in the US? To bad for US citizens but hopefully many countries have a lot of incitives and new countries join the club. And clearly even with low demand from the US (relatively to before the decrease of US incitives) Tesla will have difficulty to fulfill orders worldwide. The point is that the market is switching to electronic cars, worldwide, so the fact that the US government is for now on the wrong side of the war against global warming will not have a huge impact on global sells. And hopefully the next US president cannot be worse…

Another Euro point of view

“Less demand in the US? who cares”

People do care and very rightly so. in 2018 Tesla was able to sell 25k Model 3 in one single month in the US.
As you will soon realize with March 2019 sales, Tesla won’t the able to sell that many Model in a month in all the rest of the world combined (and it is not 4’000+ March sales in Norway that will change anything to this).

That’s one thing. Another thing is that for each Tesla sold in the US Tesla collects from the US government around USD 1’700 in regulatory credits (ZEV and GHG). This amounted for a profit (pure profit) of USD 400 mio in Q3 & Q4 2019.

Tesla does not have that income when selling abroad. The ideal situation is to sell masses of cars as close from production sites as possible (ask Ford with their F150 series), selling cars in Europe (10% import taxes + transport expenses) or in China (15% import taxes + transport expenses) puts you right at the start in an unfavorable position.

So nice that you have a crystal ball predicts month over month sales comparisons using the highest and lowest traditional sales months of the year, when there is overhang from selling to beat the tax changes, and front loading to send to China and the EU early to avoid inventory in transit at the end of quarter.

Funny thing is, all production estimates show they are steadily raising build rates and shipping each car made?

Another Euro point of view

I happen to follow quite closely the cars registrations stats, as opposed to the US many countries do make those figures available to the public, some even do report those figures on a day by day basis. Now indeed for increased import duty avoidance reasons we may see funny sales reporting from China for example.

China also has regulatory credits, starting this year.

(Admittedly, they probably won’t have much resale value, since the quotas are too low…)

Tesla says that they will be producing Model Y in Europe by 2021.

Then they had better get on the ball with actually negotiating for a factory location. That seems to have been put on hold. Or if not, then Tesla is being a lot more successful at keeping such negotiations secret than is generally the case for a major new factory which will employ thousands of workers.

“Tesla won’t the able to sell that many Model in a month in all the rest of the world combined…”

We’re a long way from knowing what the full market potential is for the rest of the entire world. Tesla isn’t even taking orders from some European nations yet — and I don’t mean just the less affluent eastern European nations where the market will be quite limited.

“Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.” — Mark Twain

“Less demand in the US? who cares…”

Pretty obviously Tesla cares, since it has repeatedly changed prices for the U.S. market within the past few months, plus Tesla put the Standard Range Model 3 into production, pretty clearly to boost demand in the U.S. Note the SR TM3 isn’t yet being offered overseas.

Your dismissal of the entire U.S. market is pretty much just as provincial and narrow-minded as you are accusing Americans of being.

P.S. — The U.S. alone is nearly half of Tesla’s entire market. Maybe it’s you who needs to expand your horizons, since you seem to be trying to dismiss Tesla’s entire U.S. market as merely one nation among many.

Price changes were not for the US only, same prices changed for Europe (of course still only AWD and P versions of 3 available.)

EV market size was >2M cars last year, ~3,5M this year, maybe around 5M cars next year. I’m not worry about demand for any electric car. Winner will be car manufacturer with highest volume of production, not with best car or car with best price/value.

By those criteria, it is clear that there is no competition for Tesla at this point.

That’s right, there isn’t. And if legacy auto makers don’t get on the ball and start building high-capacity battery cell factories whose output they (and not the battery cell makers) control, then that’s not going to change.

Caveat: The above may not apply to the Chinese market, where battery cell makers are perhaps being strongly subsidized by the government.

That’s not entirely true. The market grows as more desirable models become available. A model has to offer good value first to attract buyers, and *then* production volume becomes decisive.

Of course there is no doubt that Model Y is very well positioned on these grounds…

Do not forget that in Europ manuf. HAVE to sell EVs else they will get pretty hefty fines for missing their fleet targets for CO2.
Something like € 95 for every gram of CO2 per km PER car over the target of soon 95g

That will make their combustion models more expensive… Won’t significantly affect the desirability of their EV models though, unless they sell *way* below costs to avoid the fines…

Yes, by next year ICE models will be come expensive and we will see EVs and PHEVs reduced in price, so the difference in ICE to EV pricing of same sized vehicle will be less.

I am not concerned with competition because no one has yet to scale their battery production to the level of Tesla and no one will for years. We are seeing first glimpses of this problem with the non-availabity of the Niro and Kona in the US. This problem will continue in 2020, 2021, 2022… Alot companies can design electric cars but they can’t build them without batteries… cheap, plentiful batteries.


Right, and the non-Tesla battery suppliers supporting non-Tesla EVs are playing gatekeeper. LG Chem’s threats against customers wanting to spin up their own battery operations should temper any notion of available competition to the Model Y. Polestar 2, Kona Electric, e-Tron, and others should compete with the Model Y, but they can’t while being supply-constrained.

Analysts also conveniently forget about charging networks. Want to drive from Baltimore to Pittsburgh in a Kona? Good luck fighting over that 1 working charging station. A lot of routes are impractical or completely impossible for non-Tesla vehicles.

Everyone wants apple pie. Everyone wants to make apple pie. No one has any apples. Not just that, there aren’t even any apple trees and no one is willing to plant the trees.

That’s what I’ve been saying for years. I find it amazing that even EV enthusiasts seem to be only slowly waking up to that reality.

Another Euro point of view

For sure I would not trust Tesla with a USD 2.5k deposit right now. If Tesla reports a profit for Q1 and Q2 2019 combined then that’s another story but I am not confident at all it will. I would set probability of this to 1/5. One of the reasons is that when selling cars in Europe and in China Tesla can’t collect ZEV credits and 2018 Q3 & Q4 profits were composed for more than 50% out of those credits (ZEV + GHG, USD 400 mio in total).

You are confusing profitability on each car with company profits. If the company is taking profits and plowing them back into growth, as Tesla does, then a concern about quarterly profits needs to be adjusted accordingly.

Another Euro point of view
I am not confusing profits on each car and profits at company level at all. I hold a CPA license and do have my own accounting firm here in Luxembourg, a major hub for private equity industry. i do not care a second for profit by car, Tesla P&L and financial reportings in general are so muddy that about the only thing you can more or less rely on is their audited yearly 10K report, certainly not some “per car profit margin” cooked with Elon’s secret sauce. What do you exactly mean “reinvesting into growth” ? If you invest into brick and mortar (service centers for example), those will be depreciated according to life span and that is 20 years. Thus your total investment in those will only impact your P&L for 5% of amount invested per year. Rest (95%) is allocated in your assets and as such not impacting your P&L at all. Now indeed other growth related resources are fully impacting your P&L, like R&D for example. Now if by “reinvesting into growth” you mean for example buying your cousin’s failed solar energy business for way above fair value then indeed it does affect your P&L as you… Read more »

They just filed audited results and without material writedown to SCTY assets.

What is it, exactly, that you expect them to write down? The $5b+ of leased solar systems that send in a check every month?

Another Euro point of view

For a start I would look at the Buffalo, New York plant which as I understood benefited from a total of USD 750 mio state subsidies with investments and employment commitments tied to it. If Tesla is scaling back on employment in its core business (selling cars) I would not be too optimistic regarding employment commitments for the solar business. As regards the USD 5b+ leased solar systems, I take it fair value partly depends on the size of the collected check & life span of those systems estimated at the time, I understand it is way more complicated than this but one thing is sure is that depending on Tesla financial situation in 12/31/2020, the auditors may not be as “flexible” as in 12/31/2019.

Elon just said that 2019 will be the year of Solar Roof (and Powerwall)… I don’t think we need to worry about the Buffalo commitments too much right now.

Another Euro point of view

At least ! Good to read that.

You could have heard it if you had of listened, but then again with the voice in your head drowning out everything else, it’s hardly surprising that you were unaware.

I feel sorry for your clients who have hired a fool who doesn’t understand the concept of reinvesting into growth and who can’t read a balance sheet.

“What do you exactly mean ‘reinvesting into growth’ ?”

For someone who claims to be a certified public accountant (CPA), you appear amazingly ignorant of even the most basic business principles.

Is there anything you say that we can believe? Anything at all?

Looks like the answer is “No!”

Depends, the money spent for the goods sold affects profitability. New investment doesn’t affect probability. For example if you sell model 3 at a profit and spend all the money on a new factory, you will still report profit. In reality it is complex and growing companies cannot easily draw the line between operating and investing costs.

LMAO, “clean diesel” driving A-Euro once again shows that he is a Tesla shorter.

Another Euro point of view

I am not a shorter but my education (CPA) and professional experience (private equity fund industry) is allowing me to read and understand the technicalities the shorts do refer to when analyzing Tesla (something EV enthusiasts can’t do in like 95% of the cases) . So I can assess that the shorts general understanding of Tesla’s financial situation is more or less correct. What they do not correctly assess is 1/ the demand for Tesla cars (and appeal of the brand in general) 2/ the desperate search of investment vehicles a bubble stock market do generate. Also, as an European, I am culturally much closer to the east coast guy from Wall Street than the often starry eyed Californian EV enthusiast. I realize that by the time zones, the most crazy (to me at least) , rude and nonsensical comments usually comes when it is like late evening where I live, that is when the West coast guys start to hit their keyboards.

How funny. I am also an Accountant expecting to get my CPA license in the next year or so, and I have also run an alternative fuels business that lasted 13 years and was grossing a couple million/year. If you view Tesla as a startup, which you should, then there is absolutely nothing to suggest they are anything other than a success.

Another Euro point of view

Tesla is already a huge success simply by accelerating the western world towards car electrification (I wrote Western world as China for example never needed Tesla to crush us all as regards electric vehicle production). Now as a business venture it will be a success the first year it will be able to post a profit, I mean the runway to profits has now been long enough and Tesla is not a service or retail company (Amazon) so no point in comparing. BYD has grown as fast as Tesla and do post profits every year.

BYD was an existing ICE car company making profits selling ICE cars coming from their Tsinchuan Automobile acquisition.

For a CPA, you seem to have very little understanding of the books of the companies you comment on. That’s pretty embarrassing for you.

Funny, all the “analysis” I’ve seen from $TSLA short sellers is full of obvious BS only very naive readers would ever fall for.

Another Euro point of view

Like what obvious BS ? That Tesla is still making losses on a yearly basis and behaving goofily every other week by now despite being priced like a very profitable company with impeccable execution ? Or is it that by challenging the fact that Tesla should be priced according to the almost certain fact that Tesla will release a few years from now a huge fleet of fully autonomous taxi ? Or perhaps by challenging the so obvious fact that Tesla will dominate the Chinese electric car market by the end of 2020 ? Or perhaps by challenging the well known fact that Tesla is designing state of the art battery cells while Panasonic R&D is left in the dust and so fortunate to have Tesla as a partner to explain them how to make better battery cells ?
It would be so kind of you to show me the light as I don’t know where to start.

“Like what obvious BS ?”

Oh, like you comparing Tesla to BYD, insinuating that Tesla should be able to make a profit as easily as BYD, despite the much more competitive American market.

And like you pretending not to know what “re-investing profits in growth” means, or why it’s vitally important for a company with substantial growth potential.

And like you claiming you’re not a TSLA short-seller.

You must think readers here are as clueless as your serial anti-Tesla drivel.

These are straw-man arguments, not technicalities. The vast majority of analysts — including some of those having a price target above current levels — doesn’t account for Tesla’s self-driving ambitions *at all*. Nor contesting most the other things you mentioned. I haven’t seen a single short-seller argument built chiefly on refuting such obviously blind optimism. Instead, they are spinning conspiracy level theories about things they are supposedly wrong with Tesla that others do *not* agree with.

“I am not a shorter…”

Then you are a “useful idiot” for short-selling Tesla stock manipulators, because you keep parroting their pravduh, their FÜD, and their B.S. In fact, nearly all your posts at IEVs contain nothing but parroting what other Tesla bashers say.

Frankly, I don’t think you’re that naive. And I’m not naive enough to believe you’re not a TSLA short-seller.

So what if they don’t make a profit in H1? Nobody in their right mind seriously believes Tesla is going away any time soon. (Except for some of the $TSLAQ whackos who forgot the maxim that drug dealers shouldn’t never use their own product…)

Another Euro point of view

Tesla is not going away, the brand is way too valuable, even Bugatti was revived, I just read that Hispano Suiza was revived too.

Better sit down and rest, dude. Forcing yourself to say something about Tesla that’s actually true must have been quite a strain.

“For sure I would not trust Tesla…”

Blah, blah, blah. You have made your serial Tesla bashing position very, very clear. And you have been shown to be wrong almost every single time.

Your comments are aimed at new readers. Everybody else knows better than to believe what you say.

You do nit need to and you never will anyway.
So what.

I think Polstar 2 is the first direct Model 3 competitor on the horizon, but still a year out, I’m not even aware of any premium compact crossover announcements that could be considered direct Model Y competitors. I think Tesla won’t find the market for Model Y particularly challenging 18 months down the road. That said considering its 80% Model 3 similarity I could have imagined a somewhat closer launch date for production alongside Model 3 in Fremont.

How is it a competitor if their plan is to produce “tens of thousands” annually?

Well it’s hardly a compliance car, Polestar being a plug-in only brand so I’m guessing they will try to make as many as they can sell.

Can’t make them if there is a worldwide shortage of batteries.

They literally said tens of thousands. I didn’t pull that number from thin air.

Model Y is mid-size, not compact.

(If it was compact, there would be some upcoming competitors, such as XC40, iX3, and Q4 e-tron. In the mid-size class, I think the current e-tron and the EQC qualify? Though they are inferior on most counts, and so much more expensive, it’s not really a contest at all…)

Audi Etron Q4
Volvo XC40 EV
Kona EV
Niro EV
Seat El-born
VW ID crozz

Not one of those is in the same size class. And none beside the first two is in the “premium” class, either.

We might consider the Jaguar I-Pace a competitor of the Model Y, altho it’s not made in sufficient numbers to be a Tesla challenger in terms of sales.

Bizarrely, Jaguar has tried to portray the I-Pace as a head-to-head challenger of the Tesla Model X. But in pretty much every category, from price to size, it’s much more similar to the Model Y.

Y 1.9 m3 vs. iPace 1.453 m3. That‘s 30% more space for the Y.

Fremont is running at >100% of capacity, it seems. So adding Y would REDUCE that capacity due to added complexity and sum of production processes.

Until I see another auto manufacturer do a high-volume pure EV release, I simply don’t believe in competition for Tesla’s high-volume models. Consider how quickly Model 3 eclipsed all the other EVs in sales. It’s a joke.

Indeed. Within the next few years, the only possible competition for volume sales will be Volkswagen. Nobody else other than BYD has access to the volume of battery cells necessary, and BYD shows no signs of making a serious effort at entering the U.S. market. The attempt with the e6 several years ago was… well, I’d describe it as embarrassing.

We’ll know that legacy auto makers are getting serious about building long-range BEVs in large numbers if and when they start spending billions on building high-capacity battery cell factories whose output is controlled by the auto maker, rather than the battery cell maker.

Until then, all the claims of volume EV production are pretty meaningless.

Really inside EVs. Known shorter complaining about D-Dates. I see it perfectly. They used model 3 as trade ins and model 3 sales would have steady and wouldn’t effect its reservations

It bears noting once more, Tesla is not competing with a dozen other EV models out there. They are competing with dozens of ICE models. The difference between Tesla and others is that when Tesla makes an EV, they aren’t competing with themself. They haven’t been hampered by ICE competition ever and I don’t see that changing as we’ve now hit peak new ICE sales (like 1-2 years ago). There is plenty of room for Tesla in the market. The timeline they’ve laid out is conservative for a change and that’s a good thing. It’s what we’ve asked of them for a while now, to set realistic goals. Do we really want them to set another unrealistic timeline and then miss it, again? Let’s give them the benefit of the doubt and they may surprise us with an earlier roll-out. Keep Calm and Charge On.

Its easier for them to set realistic timelines when they can complete supplier orders saying: Hi, we are Tesla and we are building 6700 cars a week, can you help us with our new car.

In the past suppliers would say “sure sure,” and cut the capacity build to 1/2 and try to add months to the arrival time with the conception that Tesla couldn’t possibly live up to the stated expectations. In moving rapidly from 2000 cars month to 6700 cars a week, stakeholders know they have to keep up, all without Tesla having to create unrealistic timelines just to keep the laggards focused on having 15,000 validated individual parts ready for mass production at job 1.

Even better, Tesla is re-using around 70% of the parts used for the Model 3. So they don’t even have to go out and find suppliers for those parts. They just have to increase their order size.

“Squawk Box” should read “Squat Box” for all the objective knowledge displayed.

As a non US observer this factor of the Federal tax credit is very interesting. Of the dozens of manufacturers only a handful are making EV’s, and mostly to satisfy the CARB. Then you have two American companies that have hit the 200,000 EV mark and their tax credit is being reduced and phased out. So overwhelmingly you have Americans buying EV’s from the American manufacturers to the extent that they have got the phase out. Now when laggard companies, that are not American, finally decide EV’s are a good thing they will enjoy a tax credit that the American companies have lost out on (yes, Rivian is going to come into this but they are not manufacturing yet. Ford could be a player but again they are not showing that at the moment).
Using the old language you might wonder if the Federal government is run by “Commies”

Another Euro point of view

Yes indeed, I would be surprised for this Federal tax credit system to survive through all of 2020, now I am not familiar at all with US politics.


Do Not Read Between The Lines

I wouldn’t expect anything to happen. Democrats have the House, with many pushing a green platform. Republicans control the Senate, where few Republicans are pushing for removal of the credits. Even when the Republicans held the House, and the Republicans had a limited Senate majority, they didn’t remove the tax credit. In general, in US politics, the status quo is durable.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Although other manufacturers risk the tax credits being eliminated. Volume for mainstream vehicles requires lower pricing, and lower pricing would be a signal for the end to subsidies.
Current pricing is settling at the “still too expensive” $37.5k area.

In the past, Tesla announced start of production, that had slowly to climb to volume production.
Now they announce start of volume deliveries. And not a date or a quarter, but a season.

The Model Y competition is the Jaguar I-Pace, Audi e-tron quatro, Mercedes EQC, and perhaps BMW iX3.
And stil I think Tesla will have a place in the market, superior price/performance metric.

iX3 is smaller from what I gather. I-Pace is technically the same size class, but reportedly has so little interior space, that it’s effectively a smaller car as well… I’d say only the e-tron and EQC are actual competitors.

Always nice to hear your pov.

Another Euro point of view

Indeed but Tesla need to improve on quality. Norwegians received their new Model 3 very recently (like last 4 weeks) and there is already a 13 pages long “errors & defects on Model 3” thread on Eldilforum.no.
I hope Tesla ramped up their service centers considerably there to handle those seemingly badly assembled cars.

Here the link.


Yeah, every single car they deliver must be perfect. Because other car makers never deliver cars with defects.

So well received TSLA is down 5% today. SMH.

It’s pretty much a known fact at this point that often times when there is good Tesla news, the stock goes down. Investors don’t really know how to react to Tesla, which makes sense.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Because Fall 2020, and nothing to move positively from expectations. It was boring enough that Musk spent a lot of the time selling Tesla and hardly any the Y.

…and in another few days or a week, it will be back up 5% or more.

Other than day traders, who cares about the daily price fluctuations of such a volatile stock?

The analyst doesn’t seem to realized the completion is the 98% ICE market. That’s the market all EV are going after.

I think 2-3 years is perfect. You want to get enough of the Model 3 into the market to excite demand. Then they can still make some Model 3 while they ramp up the production of the Model Y. The Model Y is essentially just a raised version of the Model 3 so they can make both easily on the same line. That way they can make both 3/Y in China and and at Fremont and not mess with the S/X line. Later on as the alien dreadnaught ramps up in China they can maybe make just 3/Y in China and start making Semi/Roadster in Fremont. OTOH hand might be best to keep some final production of ALL models in the US in order to prevent IP theft in China. IIRC Tesla has been the only company to do a coast-to-coast fully autonomous drive and is MILES ahead of everyone else- not the kind of tech to hand over to China

Your “IIRC Tesla….coast to coast fully autonomous drive” has yet to actually take place across the US.

It will happen soon enough, for those that are anticipating this particular Tesla accomplishment.

Another Euro point of view

Doing it 50 miles at a time on Sundays between 3 and 4 am it should indeed be achievable.

Tell us again how you really want Tesla to succeed. For some odd reason, we keep forgetting. 🙄

Another Euro point of view

Should not be that difficult for them to succeed, I would say:

1) remove Musk as CEO before he blows the all thing up
2) find a partner with deep pockets and a wide distribution network
3) improve production quality control by like 200%
4) treat their employee fairly to trigger loyalty, I guess that Tesla low reliability is a pay back for how employees are treated.
5) Find a cheaper production place than super expensive Calif.
6) make higher quality interiors to solidly place Tesla in premium territory.
7) focus better (they now have like 4 “projects” with no proper funding nor production facilities, that is Semi, pick-up, roadster and Model Y).

Their brand is strong and that is a hugely valuable asset.

What IP theft if Tesla does not care about their patents anyway???

Everything Tesla does at this point is a negative with the financial media and press. CNBC NEVER has a positive thing to say about Tesla, along with Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance, etc. I’ve been constantly beating this drum lately because it’s absolutely out of hand- to the point where I’ll probably thumbs my own self down. But good Lord, the Model Y rolls out EXACTLY as Tesla said it would (shape, size, range, price, features, etc) and all the blathering negative financial media is down on it- for stupid ass reasons like “the reveal didn’t have much fanfare,” and “Elon seemed distant and relatively quiet,” and on and on. STUPID. Who cares at this point.

Another Euro point of view

The blathering negative financial media probably just reacts to a disconnect between how is Tesla supposed to execute (profits & growth) according to way stock is priced. If Tesla was priced at a fith of GM’s value the financial media would probably barely write about Tesla. Also Elon with his way of communicating non stop made a soap opera out of Tesla and soap opera reporting is good for business for those TV channels.

Whatever it is you’re smoking, I’d like a pound of it.


Okay, 2.2 pounds of it. 😉

No thaks, there are some BAD effects showing up…..

Bravo, John! Well said.
🙂 🙂 🙂

I myself am guilty of complaining the Reveal event was rather disappointing. So, mea culpa.

But in the long run, one single publicity event by Tesla isn’t very important. What is important is that the Model Y itself certainly is not disappointing! It looks like exactly what the market wants, and I think it has even greater sales potential than the Model 3.

Keep going Tesla!

Pushmi- actually, I have to disagree with your mea culpa comment, because you weren’t tying it to the actual vehicle itself. I agree with your reveal assessment- it appeared cramped, dark, and hastily put together. Not sure why they used such a small venue, the semi truck reveal had a massive stage and was very well lit.

I also think the Model Y has great sales potential!

Really, who’d want to run a car company? Talk about “damned if you do, damned if you don’t.”

Long waiting list? Ooooh, they’re having production difficulties!

Short waiting list? Ooooh, they’re having problems selling the cars!

I’m not saying Tesla are perfect by any means, and they certainly have had problems, but too often opinions just seem to deliberately be negative, whichever way the facts are.

That’s certainly a good description of how CNBC and stock invstor sites cover Tesla. Always a negative spin no matter what Tesla does. Even Forbes and Bloomberg seem to run a surprisingly high percentage of articles about Tesla which have a noticeable negative bias, altho unlike CNBC they also have a significant amount of positive coverage.

I’m glad many or most of the most high-profile news outlets, such as CBS Evening News and the PBS News Hour, are much more objective towards Tesla, and provide mostly positive coverage.

I agree this will be a brand new test for Tesla, and they’re going to battle without any tax credits. Now nobody may have tax credits if drumpfelatiltskin gets his way, but presuming they exist everyone gets a $7500 credit to buyers that Tesla doesn’t.

I think the iX3 and EQC will be the biggest issue for Tesla here. The EQC looks great inside and out and is from the traditional leader in the space. The X3 has a long legacy of being a desirable SUV. These aren’t the half efforts of the i3 and such.

Green for drumpfelstiltskin, red for seeing the EQC as an issue.
It gets dissed even in German media.

These guys see only the U.S. market. It’s small compared to the rest of the world.

The U.S. is a pretty big segment of Tesla’s market. The percentage will certainly shrink once the Shanghai Gigafactory gets into full production, and the possibility of a European Gigafactory may alter the equation too. But currently, isn’t the U.S. fully half of Tesla’s global market?

Some Europeans posting comments here* seem to be trying to dismiss the U.S. market as just one of many countries. That’s pretty far from the truth.

*…and I’m not referring to a certain serial Tesla basher who’s carpet bombing this discussion thread

Electric cars will not be competing against each other. They will collectively compete against ICE vehicles and eventually displace them. There will be room for all compelling electric models as they continue to grow the EV market share relative to ICE cars. Elon welcomes newcomers–it’s in Tesla’s mission statement.

“Tesla will not have any federal tax credit when the Model Y hits the market”

There are three things about that:

1) Hard to predict the status of the fed incentive in 2 years.
2) Tesla is a global company, and the fed incentive is US only, so worst case is they just send more cars to other markets earlier.
3) The problem with other car makers trying to take advantage of the fed incentive to beat Tesla in sales numbers, is that in order to just catch up to how many Model 3’s Tesla has already sold, they would blow through their own 200K sunset quite quickly. Meanwhile see number 2.

*Sigh* Yet another article written as if selling EVs is a zero-sum game, where if one EV model wins sales, another must lose them.

Selling compelling EVs is not a zero-sum game! The real competition is with the 98% of the market that is gasmobiles, not the 2% that is other plug-in EVs!

It’s absurd to write as if the Model Y can’t sell well if there are a bunch of new EV models on the market in 2020. The more, the merrier! The more models of EVs are on the market, the better for the EV revolution. Every true EV advocate should welcome every new well-designed, well-built new EV model. And here’s hoping that some EV makers other than Tesla start selling them in large numbers, too!

Up the EV revolution!

I’m not sure the timing is that bad, yes ramping up model 3 was hard because Tesla never produce to such a scale, but the model Y is a longer and taller model 3, so I expect the model Y to ramp up very smootly (I should say fastly).

Jaguar and Mercedes are having production delays and they are not a new company and I expect others to have the same problem, if anything I think Tesla will do better than them as Model Y is a model 3 with a different skin

The analyst can’t have it both ways. Either Tesla won’t be facing much tougher competition, in meaningful volume, OR the other manufacturers will have run out of credits as well, long before fall 2020. Just the first half of 2019 Model 3 production alone is enough to use up the rest of the 200,000 total, for any manufacturer that’s sold a cumulative few tens of thousand EVs so far. There’s little don’t that the US incentive scheme is a terrible design. I’ve said since the beginning that it’s actually a disincentive for manufacturers to get going. The 200,000 cars allocation everyone gets regardless of when they act doesn’t do much to sprite competition, but the catastrophic feature is the phase-out: since it is time-based, manufacturers who wait and get in late, when the EV market is bigger, can sell far more cars during the phase-out, and therefore benefit from far more credits. In this way, the scheme became an incentive to wait, which is to say a disincentive to take action ASAP. I don’t think any of the incumbents have plans of making half a million EVs in 2020, or 2021 for that matter. I do think several of them… Read more »

“…OR the other manufacturers will have run out of credits as well, long before fall 2020.”

I think Tesla is concerned about 2019 and 2020 where Kona and eTron will get Model Y sales vs. people waiting for more money, less features Model Y.

I think this may be the one time they actually release the car ahead of when they say. Heresy I know but hear me out. If Tesla is indeed in a bit of a pinch cash wise right now it would be horrible to announce the Y with a relatively near term delivery date. I imagine the Y will have a relatively significant cannibalistic effect on 3 sales. Enough that with near term delivery dates people would put off purchasing the 3 in numbers significant enough to make their cash flow numbers get into critical territory now. Then later down the line they can always release it “early” to everyone’s surprise and I guarantee that would also have the benefit of boosting the stock. Just my theory.

I Hope president Trump will erase all federal credits to level off competition field. At least change It at 200k per Year not divided for producer but to compete for among all companies, makes more sense. State tax credit is a different issue.

Let’s hope Trump is out of office before he can do any more damage particularly to necessary EV adoption. Best thing would be $10k credit for all EV’s and paid immediately not tied to Federal income tax. To meet global warming science goals of 80% reduction of greenhouse gases based on 2000 emissions, we need 80% of cars and trucks non-polluting by 2050.

No OEM can compete with the M Y at that price point. They can’t even compete on specs at +$60k. All they can hope for is better reliability and build quality, but by 2020, Tesla may have fixed that too. The competition argument is moot, as it has been since 2012.

You have it backwards, Model Y RWD at $54,000 vs. Kona Niro FWD at $46,000 and $7,500 Federal Tax Credit. FWD is better than RWD. A bit more ground clearance. Heads up display. True hatchback. Wiper on rear window, Apple/Google car apps and Hyundai is shipping and selling them now. $58,000 for LR AWD but no towing, no wiper, no heads up. Would people go Audi for 4,000# towing, heads up, rear wiper for $80,000 less the $7,500.

Model Y seems to have staked out the middle ground which usually not the best market niche.

And both and eTron and Kona are shipping in increasing numbers vs. Model Y being two years out. Why wait for higher cost, few features of the Model Y.

The Bolt beat the Model 3 to market by over a year and all the analysts (who can’t tell the difference between two EVs with similar range and price) were suggesting that Tesla would lose the race to sell affordable long-range EVs. Selling only much more expensive variants, Model 3 sales have destroyed Bolt sales! So much for that theory.

It’s time for analysts to wake up. It doesn’t matter how many Tesla competitors are out there if they are only building 10s of thousands of EVs per year and Tesla is building 100s of thousands. Until that happens, Tesla has no real competition.

These “auto experts from wall street that have never built anything in their lives and can’t even change a flat tire in their car” think that a car can be built from a drawing on a sheet of paper to completion in two years. I’ve been reading and seeing pics for more than two years about the mid engine Vette and the Mustang GT 500 Shelvy and there still not out. Just read that the Vette will have more delays and these are ICE cars that they have been making for more than a century. Agree with @Market Merchandice ” Tesla killers…. Blah Blah CNBC!!!!!

The timing of certain auto analysts’ notes re: Tesla raises concern.

Closest priced competition is Hyundai and kia which have no production capacity and are only sold in specific states with strict regulations and large incentives. I believe that the niro and kona sell at a loss. The tesla for the same price will come with 19-42% more cargo space, the option for 7 seats, full autonomous hardware (much higher resale when once available), and 250kWh charging. The kona and niro max out at 100kWh. Also the tesla receives many ota updates over its life. The kona starts at 36500 US and the niro doesn’t have a US price yet but will likely be 2000-2500 above the kona. Also the kona and niro only offer 240-260mile where as the Y will do a real 300 miles. Oh ya and then theres the ipace which has 27% less room and starts 25 000 higher as a starting price. A loaded Y will be half the cost of the ipace and get 100 miles further on a charge, have 250kWh charging and full autonomous hardware. Why does anyone think they will be late on their timeline? The model 3 took 16 months to come to production and tesla is giving the model Y… Read more »

Let’s face facts, I know this is obviously a Tesla fan boy site, and Tesla are great vehicles with awesome tech and charging network, but the fact is that the whole motor industry is moving towards fully EV so volume of all new EV alone will obviously impact Tesla sales as it will everyone else, Tesla were early to the party and have done an amazing job so far, Tesla are not going to die but in years to come they will fall in place alongside all other car manufacturers.

The Tax credit will hit the established autos the hardest. Tesla has taken maximum advantage of the tax credit and they have reached economies of scale. The incumbents won’t be able to sell into the market at scale because of Tesla.
Which means they won’t be able to drive costs down to compete, when or if the credit phases out for them or gets axed.

As followers, the tax credit will actually hinder the development of the rest of the industry. It is better that it is axed sooner rather than later and then incumbent manufacturers will be forced to go hard on investment to compete with Tesla. This will save them in the long run.