Tesla Model Y Rumormill Reignites: $40,000 Base, AWD Standard + More

JAN 6 2019 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 245

Or perhaps just $35,000, though we doubt that.

The upcoming Tesla Model Y has yet to be officially revealed, but now we may have some new details to share. Do you believe a starting price of $40,000?

The Model Y rumormill is again churning and, though we can’t confirm any of these new details, it seems the Model Y won’t disappoint.

All that’s officially known of the Model Y is limited to the teaser above and some hints from Musk here and there.

According to Tesla, the Model Y will be largely based upon the Model 3. This means its cost to develop should be on the lower side, though that doesn’t imply a low price tag necessarily.

The newest rumors (see embedded tweet below) indicate a base price of $35,000 to $40,000. Additionally, the minimum range is expected to be 250 miles.

What’s perhaps most interesting though is the Autopilot information contained within the Tweet:

  • Autopilot hardware 3.5 with more cameras and Tesla-designed radar
  • Level 4 full self-driving at launch

As with any unconfirmed rumors, take this with a grain of salt.

Previous rumors indicated Model Y would be a 3-row crossover, though that seems a bit questionable too.

See additional Model Y renders below:

Tesla Model Y Render Via Peisert Design
6 photos
Tesla Model Y Rendered Model Y Rendering Via Auto Express Tesla Model Y Render Tesla Model Y Render via Remco Meulendijk at RM CarDesign

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245 Comments on "Tesla Model Y Rumormill Reignites: $40,000 Base, AWD Standard + More"

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This is the car we will get in 3 years. Have been waiting for a useful hatch to compliment the Bolt.

With these stats, it will heavily cannibalize TM3 sales.

My guess is $5,000 more expensive for similar features. This extra cost would cover the larger battery to get same range, extra body work for hatch, etc. I would expect $40,000 for RWD base model with about 200 miles range. Conveniently the BMW X3 RWD starts at $41,000 so I imagine it would be similar for Model 3. Obviously I know nothing, but educated speculation.

Pretty good guesses I’d say. Based on spec changes they made to Model S/X when the Model 3 came out in volume, it’s possible they might make AWD standard to leave the lower price points to lesser equipped Model 3s.

According to the article, it’s AWD only.

Certainly the Model Y is going to be more expensive than the Model 3, just as the Model X is more expensive than the Model S, and for the same reasons.

Well – not likely the doors or a 3rd row. So not really the same reasons.

Pricing is determined by what buyers are willing to pay, not cost to build. SUVs in general command higher prices.

Like with other models, it sounds like the Y will launch with the higher trim with AWD and long range battery pack, like the M3 and priced about the same. Unlike the X but like the M3 the Y will need a RWD version and base 200 mile battery pack. There’s has to be harmony between 3 and Y at each price point. $30k – $35k is the sweet entry spot for compact/midsize crossovers. Tesla needs the higher volume from the Japanese and Korean and American crossovers then the lower volume higher priced European models. So Y will need to reach from base $35k to $60k with higher trim.

“…it will heavily cannibalize TM3 sales.”

They said the Model X would heavily cannibalize Model S sales. Didn’t happen.

They said the Model 3 would heavily cannibalize Model S sales. Didn’t happen.

Here we go again… 🙄

I think it’s a little different. The car market is moving from sedans to CUV/SUV. The Model X was more of a CUV/minivan. So unless you liked the Model X styling the Model S was more practical and affordable.

Not necessarily…

Tesla reinvented the sedan.

IMO people love the TM3 because it’s “T” and despite it being a sedan.

Yep nailed it – I bought it as couldn’t wait for the Y – I’ve been tweaking it to accomplish what I need it to do (see my blog for roof rack)

“I think it’s a little different.”

That’s exactly, word-for-word, what they said about the Model 3 cannibalizing Model S sales. “Yeah, the Model X didn’t cannibalize Model S sales, but this is different because blah blah blah.”

Here we go again. Rinse and repeat.

I suspect that this move (from sedans to CUVs) was completed a few years ago. There remains a market for sedans. (I have a Model 3, but I much prefer sedans over CUVs — so much more fun to drive!)
Some people may have bought Model 3 because Model Y was too expensive or too large and because they could not wait for Model Y, thus inflating the number of Model 3 sales beyond what the underlying sedan market would have supported. But I don’t think that number is very large — I think most of those wanting a CUV either bought another brand or are holding off until 2020.
So I’d expect some drop in Model 3 demand, but small compared to the total Model Y demand.

“They said the Model X would heavily cannibalize Model S sales. Didn’t happen.”

It is happening. Model S just logged a YOY sales drop when Model X has double digit growth.

Model X sales just eclipsed Model S sales for the last 3 Qtrs as well.

What kind of a EV enthusiast would give you thumbs-down for simply quoting the YOY sales numbers 🙂

Facts don’t matter, as much, in a faith based society.

I’m sure that the Model S being 7 years old has nothing to do with it.

Model S is the oldest model in the lineup with many early S owners switching to X for a change, new S should be on 2021 so the sales swing back to S should happen after that. I also wonder if S gets a wagon as well.

Station wagons are pretty much passe in the U.S., replaced by SUVs, CUVs and even minivans… altho the latter are pretty much passe, too.

I don’t see Tesla making a station wagon.

“It is happening. Model S just logged a YOY sales drop when Model X has double digit growth.”

So… your claim is that altho Model X sales didn’t cannibalize Model S sales for the first few years the Model X was on sale, it is doing so now? O_o

Apparently logic isn’t your forte. A more discerning reader might think there is a different reason for the dropoff in Model S sales.

Heavily cannibalize. The wording is a big aggressive.
Obviously – some will get a Model Y instead of a 3. Mostly it will grow the overall sales. Just like the X grew the overall sales.
When you go electric, there are 2 things at play. A sedan has better range given the same size battery. Range is more important for most buyers than MPG (the ICE equivalent). So EV’s favor sedan – other things being equal. The other issue is that an electric CUV (or whatever the tall variant is called) will still handle great as opposed to the ICE equivalent.
So the long term mix may be different. Or it may not.
At $35k for the 3 and $40k for the Y, the cannibilizing is primarily BMW, Honda, Toyota.

I agree. Especially when the vehicle “cannibalizing” the sales will probably have a higher profit margin for Tesla. That is normally known as “growing the company”.

The Model S sales figures were: almost 29K in 2016, >27K in 2017, <26K in 2018. Given the high level of brand loyalty, some of this HAS to be through cannibalizing (unless you believe that most potential S buyers repented and rushed to accept the penance of the most austere Bolt's driver seat).

No, it doesn’t at all have to be thru cannibalizing. As multiple comments have pointed out, the Model S is perceived as getting older and needing a refresh. That means people who would formerly have bought a Model S may look elsewhere… and the “elsewhere” could be any number of choices, not merely the Model 3 or the Model X.

Let’s see what happens to Model S sales after the refresh. If they don’t shoot back up, then you’ll have a much stronger case for the TM3 and the MX “cannibalizing” MS sales.

I agree.

This is value added to the model lineup. Education at the showroom is also key. Such as a quick survey of needs vs. a tiny education of aerodynamics and weight of a sedan vs taller vehicle and how it effects range.

SUV consumers are mostly set that they NEED a hatchback, but in a SUV form. I’m certain that many have held out on considering a Tesla purchase as $120,000 for an X is more than what they can spend (by about double!). 3 buyers wanted RANGE, speed and coolness. Y buyers tend to be families who are not looking for a second car, but their main family all-purpose transportation unit.

A more diverse lineup is a wider net that catches more fish.

What’s a TM3?? Is that like an TSX? Or a GMC?

Tesla Model 3. So designated to avoid confusion with the BMW M3.

King is dead,bow to your new master

I think it does not have to necessarily cannibalize, I think that for Tesla it doesnt matter whether you buy Model 3 sedan or Model Y hatch, what matters you buy one of them, some people might not want sedan and some might not want hatch… you can see it also in other brands that they offer different model variants

5-8 years away from the BASE Model…

What about the falcon wing doors?

100% nonsense.

AWD only is the only plausible one as it makes some sense for a CUV/SUV

$35k, not a chance when the RWD 3 with less range will start at $35k. $40k minimum.

Autopilot hardware revision is certainly possible but has nothing to do with the Y and will be released into the other vehicles when ready.

LVL4 self driving, exactly 0% chance that this will be ready by the time the Y launches

There is no need for AWD….Most SUVs/CUVs don’t have that anyway.

Yes, FWD is enough.

No Tesla car has ever been FWD, and there is no way that the Model Y, which is a development off the Model 3, will be FWD either.

Not in the Premium CUV segment.

vehicles without AWD are certainly not SUVs/CUVs. Even if the marketing department is trying to convince you otherwise.

The most hilariously ridiculous vehicle I can remember is seeing a Ford Excursion about 20 years ago that was RWD only. It was not having a fun time on the icy road when I passed it in my Hyundai.

Simply Lacking Enough Weight on the Driving Wheels, and likely – not the best tires!

handles just like a truck.

What do you call them?

…and you got (at this moment) -11 down-votes for that entirely correct statement. 🙄

Pretty soon, “CUV” and “SUV” will merely mean “car”. In fact, I think we’re already there.

Pickups and SUVs are already called ‘cars’ in Texas. 🙂 Even though the tag says ‘truck’.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

More vehicles going AWD, and the highest ratios are in the premium segment.

Actually more SUV’s going FWD as main option (Kona, Niro, RAV) are three with EV SUV’s competing with Tesla. With FWD and EV’s naturally balanced weight and great snow tires (Xices or Blizzaks) and a bit more ground clearance, the FWD EV SUV’s are excellent choice.

SUV’s are really today’s station wagons for the family conveniences of extra seating, hatchback convenience. The AWD is not necessary for regular driving even for skiing families.

Those aren’t SUV’s. Those are tall hatchbacks.

Cannot wait for the all electric El Camino.

It’s called the Rivian R1T. Altho not FWD!

The whole point of the CUV is the fact it’s a “crossover” vehicle. It takes features of a car and features of an SUV, so a tall hatchback with slightly more aggressive styling and more ground clearance basically is a CUV by definition.

A CUV is different to a SUV, although a lot of people use them more interchangably, but the CUV moniker was created to help differentiate vehicles as things like the CRV and RAV4 became more popular and car like.

Having FWD and looking SUV like is pretty much the purpose of a CUV.

“Those aren’t SUV’s. Those are tall hatchbacks.”

They are all just lifted station wagons.

Of you drive on the beach you do.

A FWD car is a “CUV” or an “SUV” in the same way that a cubic zirconium is a “diamond”.

Trying to label hatchbacks “SUVs” may help the marketing, but it doesn’t change the reality that SUVs are light trucks… and FWD hatchbacks are not.

There is no “reality” to the SUV label, it was entirely made up to start with and trying to insist that THIS is an SUV and THAT isn’t has about as much value as arguing over whether your not someone is a TRUE (fill in the blank).

The term SUV (Sport Utility Vehicle) properly applies to light trucks with better offroading ability and higher ground clearance than a typical car, and certainly does not mean compact or sub-compact front-wheel-drive-only passenger vehicles.

Language has utility only where it conveys clear meaning. If you muddy the meaning of a word, then it loses usefulness. Sure, words often do acquire new meanings and even sometimes completely change definition over time in living languages. But we should resist that trend when it leads to less precise meanings for words. If and when “SUV” comes to be merely a synonym for “passenger car”, then it will cease to have any usefulness as a category. You might as well just say “car”.

#GrammarNazi

Sorry, but I can’t resist. But since we’re on the meaning of words: you meant cubic zirconia, not cubic zirconium. The latter doesn’t exist (zirconium is an element, not an oxide mineral), the former is a yttrium-stabilized (usually) cubic polytype of ZrO₂. Of course, it is cubic oxide that is used as a diamond simulant.

#solid_state_chemistry_nomenclaturenazi

If you look at how many FWD CX5’s sell compared to AWD CX5, it is not even close. My local dealer doesn’t even carry FWD CX5 anymore. And it hardly ever snows around here.

Mazda don’t make CUV/SUVs, they are nothing more than sporty station wagon.

The CX-3, 5 and 9 are all CUV’s. They’re not generally considered SUV’s though.

Gotta disagree. It’s possible for smaller electric motors at both ends to be nearly as cheap as a larger motor at one end. It’s more efficient and having AWD is a logical setup for any slippery condition one might encounter. You wouldn’t consider one drive wheel. Why settle for two on a four wheeled vehicle. Cost has always been a limiting factor because of the complication. With electric motors that is somewhat mitigated.
And can we please stop having this argument on what constitutes a CUV. It’s a station wagon truck like vehicle that sits a little higher than hatchbacks and sedan/coupes.

Re CUV: No, a CUV is a vehicle similar in size and shape to an SUV, but built on a car frame/ unibody rather than a light truck frame/ unibody. If it’s accurate to call a vehicle a “truck”, then it’s not a CUV.

No way anyone can call Kona or Niro a SUV when they don’t have AWD option and shorter than a Ford Taurus!!!!

Exactly. They’re CUV’s

Not in Colorado. I Remember talking to someone who had a Subaru made before they were all 4×4 and they could not sell it. No one wanted a 2 wd Subaru.

I think its needed because its easier to control the car through autopilot.

More regen braking will make AP only use brakes in emergencies, reducing brake wear and increasing range. Good call

RE: There is no need for AWD
True for traction in many places.
Electric AWD is not just for traction though. Different gearing or motor architecture can provide the opportunity for extending range. Also, torque vectoring can be used to aid in handling for emergency maneuvers, increasing safely. EV AWD also provides the ability to reduce people getting stranded if one motor should fail.
In short, EV AWD != ICE AWD

Don’t forget the insane performance specs you can achieve as well….
Tesla Roadster mkII is a striking example of that.

Number of times I have been more confident in icy roads in my electric RWD Tesla versus all previous FWD ICEs … yeah, not the same beast.

It’s pretty much a question of weight distribution and driver ability when comparing FWD and RWD in snow or ice. AWD will always be the clear winner.

Having traction control helps a great deal, too. You don’t have to be a superior driver to get much better results driving in snow with FWD than with older RWD cars; cars lacking traction control. With FWD, the car mostly goes in the direction you steer it, even in snow. With RWD, you’re likely to slide all over the road unless you’ve got chains or winter tires on.

LVL 4 Autonomous = Full Self Driving, on Request; LVL 5 = No Steering Wheel (Based on my memory of reading the official ‘Levels’ about 8-12 Months Back, anyway!), and even if a Completely Autonomous Drive has been Demonstrated Across America, while the Hardware & Software might be Capable, it might not be yet Approved or Legal, in All States and Provinces in the USA & Canada (Where first Deliveries will begin, anyway, most likely!).

However – if there is a National Law for Autonomous Operation that Tesla Meets, they might be able to start their ‘Tesla Network’ with the Y at First Deliveries – even before Tesla Employees!

L4 is hands off the wheel in most driving scenarios. L5 is handling any driving scenario a person is currently capable of doing.

There are two competing definitions for what L4 / L5 autonomous driving means. You are both correct, depending on which set of definitions you’re using.

L5 is driverless car. An empty car getting grocery pickup, and coming back to the driveway. I don’t think L4 can do this.

L4/5 difference is more about location and route than whether there is someone in the car.

Waymo for example has a Level 4 car, even though they are now testing with no staff in the vehicle. It’s level 4 because it’s geofenced into a certain area. Other examples of Level 4 would be a vehicle able to drive with no human interaction on highways in reasonable weather (i.e. not deep snow etc), but need human interaction in cities.

Level 5 generally means it could go any where, by any route, in almost any weather. That’s still a long way off.

$35k “starting” price could make sense, given that the starting price with Tesla is the “end” price chronologically… the base Model Y, if the 3’s timeline is any guide, will arrive in late 2022 or sometime in 2023. By then, $35k will have to buy you significantly more than it does today — just like 2018 models offered much more bang for the buck than 2014.

Inflation would negate that. Remember all manufacturers increase their prices YOY as well so there would be no motivation to hit that $35k price point. In 5 years $40k will be “the new” $35k.

Tesla will discontinue RWD from Model 3 also. Only AWD makes sense in electric car and I would personally buy only an electric car with quad motor approach.

Therefore, if Model Y does not come with quad motor drivetrain, I will not buy it.

Nope. RWD is more fun, more efficient and cheaper.

Lots of people think a RWD BEV is just fine. In fact, I’ve seen comments lamenting the fact that the LR TM3 no longer comes in RWD.

And if you’re going to hold out for quad motors, I guess that means you’ll be buying nothing but a Rivian truck… assuming Rivian does go ahead and put quad motors in the production vehicle, which I think is iffy. (Several EVs had in-wheel motors in the prototype, but not in the production car. Rivian isn’t using in-wheel motors, but still…)

As a RWD LR TM3 owner I have zero interest in or need for AWD. I very much do have an interest in having $5K more in my wallet and more highway range, I would only need AWD if lived somewhere hilly with real winters. Only the former is true of where I live now.

I live somewhere hilly with real winters and still elected to get the rear wheel drive for the same reasons. Managing just fine so far – need good winter tires. My key goal in the winter is ability to STOP!

I would like to bet if you will really hold out for a quad motor or not.

Coming from someone who only looks at it from a theoretical perspective than from ownership experience?

Depends on when it will come out. For 2025, sure. For 2020, probably not.

I guess AWD only makes sense, but for 250 miles, the probably less efficient Y will need at least a Mid Range battery. And since the sub 40k base model 3 might become a late 2019 car, or be even later, I find it hard to imagine, that a bigger car, with a bigger battery and AWD standard will cost the same, or only up to 5k more a year later.

AP is anyone’s guess and Tesla has been super unpredictable, so who knows…

So in the end it’s possible, but not in 2020. And they won’t announce it like that. That would be Osborne overkill.

They might start shipping at the end of 2020 and will be late 2021 before we get it in Europe.
That sort of date will put it square up against the VW ID range. Things will get interesting IF and it is a big IF those dates are anywhere near correct.
The Hatchback segment of the market will be a lot harder than the saloon one to dominate.

Well, if they intend to start shipping by 2020, then the mentioned stats are totally made up.

If they intend to ship it a lot later, then I could see those stats being used as goals.

But especially if the Y has 3 rows, even with battery imporovements in mind, they will need at least the MR battery to get 250+ miles.

And even w/o the PUP and AWD the MR 3 is already 39k…

On Tesla website, it says standard battery model 3 will be available in 4-6 months.

So – some time in Q2, possibly not before Q3 in some situations? Sounds about Right – since they also need to improve and stabilize the 7,000 per week production goal, at least! Possibly even hit the 8,000+ Production level, to handle demand for it, plus Europe, plus China – just for the High End Versions there!

Yes. It has said that for nine months, however.

Eddie, Musk said that the standard model 3 would be out in 4 or 5 months. Back in late November. The horizon just keeps staying 4 or 5 months out… LOL!
It will happen, but not before Tesla has milked every car ready willing and able to pay a penny more than $35k.

Yeah, that 4-6 months is a moving target. With shipments to Europe only just now getting started, I don’t see Tesla wanting to put the lower-priced SR version into production in the first half of 2019. Not sure about the 2nd half, either; we’ll see.

The $35k model 3 is the car of the future!

…and it always will be.

No, that would be the Mirai fool cell car. 😉

They’re already close to $100/kw battery costing. 2020 is definitely possible.

Look, if Musk says in an e-mail to his employees, that the base Model 3 would still cost 38k to build. How would another vehicle, which is built on the same platform, but bigger cost so much less to build, that they can add in AWD and a larger battery in 2020?

And especially if battery pricing was $100/kWh, I can’t really see how battery savings would decrease to a point where it would work in that short timeframe.

I don’t doubt that it will work at some point, but not in 2020.

All good points, altho I’ll be surprised if the Model Y is delayed past 2022, and my guess is low-volume production will start in late 2021.

Yup. Hard to say but if the 3s can get profitable at a 35K base, then perhaps a smaller, simpler hatch made on the same general platform could skip some on the developmental costs and come in at the same price. Fingers crossed..

So it is minimum 3years before the first cars come of the production line.
I thought they would try and move faster with a second body on the Model 3.

nonsense,cynical comments…the moment the 3 starts to decline,the Y will arrive(with delay).After all they have quite a corporate strategy,more than me and you!

Why be in a big hurry. No on else seems to be. Besides Tesla has a lot on their plate, hopefully, though not likely another car company will come out with something compelling and competitive and available, in the meantime, but don’t hold your breath.

Tesla wants to lead!!!(IF YOU DIDN,T NOTICE YET)

First Ys will be rolling of the production line within 12 months.

Not unless Tesla installs full auto assembly lines at Gigafactory 1, in Nevada. There’s no room at Fremont for another model, and the Shanghai assembly won’t be ready for 2-3 years.

I would suspect quicker, I think they are already done with the design. Model 3 was less than 2 years from when they showed it March 2016. With the Model Y they approved the “final prototype” for production in Oct. Model 3 wasn’t finalized until Jul 2016, so took 18 months. If it is 18 months from last Oct that means it could start mass volume production a year from this spring if it follows a similar timeline as Model 3.

No. They approved the construction of prototypes. That is when they started doing the physical development of the actual car.

Hopefully the rumor of a 3rd row option is true, although I have my doubts. We need to carry an extra kid or two once or twice a month for a short trip from school, etc. Model X is overkill for that. Even a tiny 3rd row would be great.

It was interesting how Tesla half-acknowledged that third row leak as true (“The timelines and information shared here are outdated”).

So maybe it won’t happen, but it’s almost certain the Y’s size will be larger than a Kona or IPace, and maybe even bigger than an eTron.

It would be a great way to undermine the IPace, e-tron, EQC, iX3 by releasing a more functional vehicle for far less money and generally better specs. Those vehicles are all trying to be compared to Model X so they can justify their price when in reality they are something more like Model Y.

Or, Model S Like, the 3rd “Row” might face backwards??? Would that work for those extra times needed?

only if the 3rd row is an option.

I hope it doesn’t. That’s going to make it too big.

Yeah, I don’t see that happening. If there’s a 3rd row in the Model Y, it’s going to be as cramped as the rear seats in a Cadillac ELR. Unless Tesla gives the Model Y a significantly longer body than the Model 3, which doesn’t seem likely, there simply won’t be room for a full-sized 3rd row of seats.

However, given that Tesla did offer rear “jump seats” for the Model S, I suppose something similar for the Model Y might be part of the plan.

Cramped third row seats on a Y isn’t as huge a problem as the cramped “second” row seats in my Volt.

That’s what the frunk’s for. 😉

These are guesses.

I noticed there are a lot of guesses becoming articles in the EV world. It is really just anyone’s guess.

Though the Tesla look is very neutral they really need to get away from the snow plow front end and do something different.

Yeah, and super low drag is not everything. A better looking front is also important. Can’t be a brick of course, but . .
Usually it’s only minor changes that is needed.

Demand for the Model 3 seems to be pretty high, even with the “shark’s nose” front end. I don’t see Tesla changing what is clearly a winner for them. “Don’t fix it if it ain’t broke!”

As far as Tesla is concerned, super low aero drag is everything.

A flat nose does not do well to reduce drag and that one looks like a bath tub!

Reality check: Apparently the Model 3’s flat nose does very well indeed at reducing drag.

More like a rubber ducky face….

BF Hates it

If it’s an electric ‘Crosstrek’ then it’ll sell in spades in the west.

Is the Model Y going to cannibalize Model 3 sales?

My guess is no, considering many folks are squarely set on the SUV/pickup requirement, however unnecessary that may seem. Even if the ride height and size is nominally larger for the ‘Y,’ I believe there’s many that have been conditioned to believe that AWD and off-road ability is the minimum standard.

same old story like the S,and X…and now the 3…….(not to much cannibalisation !!l)

Trends are going to Suvs and Cuvs

But the X, S, and 3 are vastly different vehicles. The Y seems very similar to the 3, just better suited towards current buying trends, which disfavor sedans over cuvs/SUVs.

Other auto makers can introduce new models without people frettting over cannibalizing sales. Do sales of the Honda Accord cannibalize sales of the Honda Civic? Of course not; an expansion of the line increases sales! Why is this a “thing” only for Tesla?

Let’s leave the concern trolling to the die-hard Tesla bashers, hmmm?

But CRV sales do cannibalize sales of Accords and Civics. CRV sales are increasing while Accord and Civic sales are decreasing.

Comparing the Civic and Accord is like comparing the S to the 3.

Okay, so what is your point?

No Pu but the CRV did cannibalize the Accords sales tho

Well, the X is FINALLY starting to ‘Exceed’ the S in Sales Numbers, However – As I Recall, Elon Brought out the X, since He Figured Sedan Sales were Dropping, and yet – while this might be so, Tesla has not experienced as much of that effect, as he figured they would!

While the Model Y is largely to cater to the American Market, it seems the Chinese have interest in it as well!

Y will sell well across the globe.

I think that M3 will also sell quite well across MOST nations.

If the X wasn’t such a weirdmobile it would be crushing the S.

I fear Tesla is going to stick with the sloping rear end to gain highway range. Wrong call, I’d never buy an SUV with a sloping rear. I know I’m not alone in this, by any stretch. I need a traditional long-roof like on a wagon or real SUV.

I hope they prove me wrong and give this thing the same form factor as a RAV4, Escape, CRV, etc.

Tesla isn’t interested in making traditional cars. If you want a CUV or SUV with a flat roof, there are plenty of other auto makers selling them.

The Model Y is almost certainly going to look like a smaller version of the Model X, just as the Model 3 looks like a smaller version of the Model S. But I hope Tesla doesn’t put those problematic falcon-wing doors on the TMY!

EVERY nation has interest in Trucks/SUV/CUVs. Fact is, even in Europe, they are selling better than sedans.

If trends of increasing CUV sales vs Sedans continue, yes.

not likely. M3 sales are cannibalizing ICE sedan sales. I suspect that will continue. In fact, like the S/X, they have been selling between 2000-2500 / month in USA for a LONG time. And many ppl predicted that these would fall upon the M3, or over time, it would look like Ford/GMs and simply drop.

The Model S has definitely saturated, but still relatively high volume for its price. Model S sales were down a bit in the US, but Model X still had significant growth and outsold the Model S for the year. I suspect the Model S will have at least some major updates within a year or so. Curious to see what they are, maybe more range and charging rate so they exceed the 3 and maybe some tech updates.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

It would. But not entirely.

Model Y will cannibalize entry level ICE luxury CUV segment. ie Lexus RX and below, BMW X3 and below, MB GLC and below. Audi Q5, Volvo XC60 etc..

When Tesla is ready with L4 FSD Tesla can make far more money buying their own vehicles and running them 24/7 on Tesla network instead of selling them. One on demand taxi can do 100k miles per year making 70.000 USD per year selling 1 mile for 70 cents. Selling the car to private ownership will not be as good business for Tesla. Maybe Tesla will not sell you a car unless you agree to let Tesla network use it for x hours per month. Something like that.

They’ll use the sales to scale up their manufacturing capacity, and then syphon of a percentage for their own fleets. Don’t forget, you and Tesla will also make money when they rent out your vehicle.

Yes but how many will rent out their vehicle volunterely. I suspect not many. In that case Tesla can expand production much faster if they just focus on expanding a much more profitable Tesla owned network that will make a ton of money for building new gigafactories. People don’t want to hear this but it is the most logical thing to happen.

I’m sure that people renting out their car for others to use will be as popular as people renting out their spare bedrooms on Airbnb.

That is… it will happen, just not in large numbers.

Maybe. Obviously the level of intrusion is significantly less. I suspect the younger generation is not so attached to their cars. It will depend of course on reimbursement rates.
I am late 40s and live in a small city. Starting to find people of similar age who Uber everywhere. Take away the driver and cut the price in half, that will grow by an order of magnitude. As density grows, and parking gets harder, the argument grows.
But none of this is happening in a few years. That is laughable.

The older and mature you get the less intrusion in you want in life

Agree Pu

these are L4, not L5.
So, nope.
And I doubt that Tesla will ever adopt that system.

Self-driving taxi is possible with L4. This is exactly what Waymo do currently. They are also just level 4 because they are geofenced to certain roads. L3 however is not good enough for a self-driving taxi because it require human control for some roads.

Elon does not dream of converting us all to drive EVs to help save the planet, only to turn around and force us to by gas guzzling Ice cars.

How many times I been saying that here in the USA we don’t want a robo car or car share our cars that we brought

Lots of people already want “robo cars”, and that number will skyrocket once it’s shown that fully autonomous cars are safer than human driven cars. Doubly so when autonomous cars get lower insurance rates; that will make them more affordable.

Do you think your great aunt Matilda won’t want a “robo car” when she’s too old to drive herself? Of course she will!

The Tesla Model Y will be a very compelling EV model.

Deliveries will probably start in Q4 of 2020. High volume production will start in 2021.

I doubt they could make 2020. In theory, if they would already be testing the Model Y if they are going to make a 2020 date.

They probably could do it but where do you imagine the volume is getting produced?
I suspect the model 3 is going to take all their capacity (current) for well over 2 years.

Been saying 2021 . Don’t want to siphon Model 3 sales

No roof racks, no towing, then no from me. Plus the base will start around $50k then all option going up

Tesla has proven that towing customers are 2nd class customers for them. They ignored a petition for tow hitch for Model S with 1.500 signatures. Musk promised tow hitch for Model 3 and took it back. And performance customers get every minor wish fullfilled. To me Tesla is tow dead until proven otherwise.

Well, I don’t “KNOW” for sure that “Musk promised tow hitch for Model 3 and took it back.” – But – I do know – having read the manual, it said – not ‘Yet’ Approved for Towing!

However – That may become a bigger Chorus of demand – as they start shipping to Europe! I also – am waiting – for Model 3 with Towing…. Or – a Model Y With Towing! Need 2,000 Pounds Minimum, for Model 3, 2,500 would be Nice. Hope minimum 2,500 in the Model Y, with 3,000 Pounds being – ‘Nice’, I figure!

The “Model 3 approved for towing” will be the Model Y.

And I find it irritating that people keep saying Tesla “promised” something just because Elon said they wanted to do it. Tesla never promised the Model 3 would be rated for towing.

I noticed that specific wording in the manual as well. My suspicion is will be brought about for EU market and homologated. (But even if it isn’t done, I will just buy the after-market option from Torklift Central. Already have the Tesla Roof Rack on my Model 3 and its working a treat.)

You need to be realistic. The “need” to have the fastest 0-60 time is real, but people only tow things in your imagination. 😉

Doubtful. The base price of the Model 3 with AWD is $40,000. I don’t expect a RWD Model Y and I don’t expect the Model Y to have no increase over the Model 3. I’d put it at $45,000 unless there’s a RWD version.

I modded you up, but I have to say that I believe that Musk is going with another design. It will lower manufacturing costs, again. They have learned a great deal on manufacturing as they moved from Roadster to M3. Each time, they got more and more automated. I think that with new design, it will allow labor to be cut in half or more, and parts will be lower costs as well.

There is no way Tesla is going to sell the Model Y for the same price as the Model 3. Even if it cost less to make the Model Y, Tesla would still price it higher. They may drop the price of the TM3; a lower-cost TMY might subsidize a lower price for the TM3.

No auto maker sells a car with perceived higher value than another of its own models at a lower price, even if the unit cost to produce it is lower. The TMY will have a higher perceived value than the TM3, so will be priced higher.

Nope. Board wants the same sheet metals and platform ( undercarriage) to be use on the Model Y to control cost. All legacies do it even VW with the iD platform for EVs

I’ll put it at $50k base and with pup and AWD at $58k

Those specs vs prices might actually be reasonable: how about making the batteries removable? You might make each battery module small enough that an owner could install or remove them, maybe 60 pounds like a snow tire or a sack of fertilizer.

This way Tesla could sell a Y with just enough modules for 120mile city/commuting range, for only $35K. Then for the occasional longer trip, a user could purchase and install additional modules… and remove the extras after the trip.

There would be obvious benefits to multiple replaceable modules: with only half the battery weight, the car would be lighter, thus more efficient, better acceleration, and charge quicker. Heck, there might even be an industry-standard size and shape that’s interchangeable with other vehicles.

There’d be challenges: how to accommodate the liquid cooling system — perhaps each battery module would slip into its own built-in water-cooled sleeve. And when you install a couple new modules, the charging system would need to adjust its charge rate to match the different states of charge.

This argument is fading. First – the weight of the battery does not effect range or efficiency that much. Cue up the efficiency difference between a MR and a LR model 3. You will have to go back to the discontinued RWD LR but there was no different in EPA rated efficiency.
Certainly – charging quicker is not a benefit at all. The only time charging speed matters is while QC or supercharging and then the biggest battery nearly always wins. Efficiency matters more and the weight didn’t really help.
One thing about weight. You have to engineer to the max weight and that drives a part of the weight and efficiency issues. Sure a light car with narrow tires is more efficient. But then it can’t handle the extra weight of the bigger battery for road trips.
Nope – the battery cost is low enough that modular expansion is not worth it. Not one bit.

Certainly over time, the continuing drop in battery prices makes removable battery modules less needed and less compelling. I’m not sure the prices are that cheap at this point, but the difficulty of making a reliably operating removable battery module with a liquid cooling system likely makes it impractical.

My next car.

I hope it is more hatchback, with more headroom in the back, not sloped for aerodynamics as most renders show just scaled down version of Model X.

Your wish will certainly be ignored. Have you seen their semi truck? How about their first pick-up truck (figuratively and literally pickup truck)?
Elon is proud of making FAST, LONG RANGE inexpensive cars. He can not do it by making POS like the legacy car makers have.
And putting up walls, like Mercedes, Range Rovers, Jeeps, Nissan Cubes, Volvos, BMW, Hummers, minis, etc. The one that bugs me the most was the one with the ad that had some chipmunk furry driving it looking for tail. Sheesh.

I agree it will most likely be aerodynamic, which will probably sacrifice traditional styling. I wouldn’t expect anything different with Model Y. It is the key to make cheaper long distance EVs. What Elon does not do is make inexpensive cars…

Inexpensive?

“Inexpensive”? 😂

I think you meant “expensive”

Then prepared to be disappointed. Tesla sloped the rear of the Model X; we can be sure they will do the same with the Model Y, for exactly the same reasons.

Then I won’t be considering one.

So at $35k for a 250 mile AWD CUV – and you won’t consider? I am sure Tesla won’t really care. There are compromises in life and I don’t think it is wise to be unwilling to compromise.
You will pay more or lose in range. Why be so stubborn?

CUV are for utility. It’s like not having a roof rack on a SUV

Why doesn’t Tesla compromise for my needs? Like utility in a utility vehicle.

Different people have different wants and needs in a car (even if that “car” is a light truck). If they didn’t, then there would be only a handful of different models.

Cypress has just as much right to decide what he wants, or doesn’t want, as the rest of us. You can’t bully someone into wanting one or another type of car by posting a comment to social media. People want what they want.

“Do you believe a starting price of $40,000?”

No.

The small CUV market is hugely popular and Tesla will be able to charge a much higher prices and still have tons of demand. Expect the Model Y rollout to be similar to the Model 3, with higher end variants available first.

I expect a base price for Model Y to be at least $45k.

I disagree, I think eventually it will hit $40,000 as that is what X3 is. Look at comparable cars and expect similar. Maybe $43,000 if AWD is standard.

Recommendation to potential buyers, stop believing you can buy one for the base price.
Add about $20k if you want the car during the first couple years of its release to the market.

Only – timelines will shrink. “First couple of years” – I guess it depends what you mean by that. 2 years – well maybe.

At some point, the Model 3 efficiencies hopefully will help speed the production ramp up. And at some point, some competition will force down prices..

But – if the model 3 would come out a year from now – don’t expect one for under $50k for awhile. There are realities of supply and demand. The demand for a Model Y (in 2020) will be well in excess of what Tesla can build – even at $50k

Ugh. I hate this sort of thing that seems to be more designed for someone to self-promote their twitter feed hits than to actually get accurate information out…

Sounds ligit to me.

Dual motor may help the get better efficiency from a body with greater drag.
New radar seems plenty plausible if they’re looking for high res radar to support their AV efforts.
Timelines for AV is in line with their current efforts.
40k price is right for a base model.
Range is right for base model.

Sure it may all be speculation, we’ll find out soon enough.

Sounding like it may or could plausibility be true, is not the same as actually having real confirmed facts.

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Dual motor is not more efficient intrinsically. It was only so with the S/X system using induction motors, enabling different optimal operating points for the two.

The 3 rear motor is significantly more efficient than induction motors, allows more regen, and the added front induction motor for AWD adds mass and lowers efficiency.

Aerodynamic drag is a huge consideration for highway range in an EV, far more than ICE since 75% of the energy isn’t going out the radiator—and that’s when you need the range.

The i-pace, MBZ and Audi competitors to models X&Y have lousy efficiency, meaning lower range for higher cost, more time to recharge on highway for a given needed distance.

Base price of at least $45k for model Y and here a few of the common sense reasons why:
1) Base Model 3 built later this year is not even confirmed at $35k.
2) Y will be a bigger, more capable vehicle.
3) Y will have more equipment as standard and new, better efficiencies.
4) Hello, inflation.
5) Becasue Tesla can. If there have been, are over 500k reservations for the sedan model 3 this decade, what do you think will happen when Tesla offers a bigger, better small luxury suv for $45k? There will be over a million deposits for the Y in 2019 n 2020 even at a $45k base price.

Or perhaps Elon has learned his lesson and will not even announce a concrete base price till the actual damn things are built. Who knows what they hell the next few years will do to our economy, Tesla, bev industry, etc. Elon should just say something like, “the model Y will be competitively priced as other small luxury SUVs in the class.” That’s vague enough, right?

I’d probably buy a model Y at a $50k base price in 2023

Out of 1 million deposits, about 30% – 50% will be from existing Tesla owners, IMO.

Agreed Eddie…if not more

Good, then use model 3 will be in the market

40K? Forget it. It won’t be available before4-5 years and after that only the fully loaded will be available for at least 2-3 more years. Remember M3

If you think the Model Y won’t be on sale for 4-5 years… well, prepare to be pleasantly surprised.

First off, your assumption that it will be based off M3 is quite probably wrong. For Elon to have this down to 35K, he NEEDS to have lower manufacturing costs. The fact that an [CS]UV has more weight and more parts says that it will be default have a higher costs. Therefor, for him to get the costs down, means that he has convinced the board to go with him on better manufacturing. Im sure that will include 2 levels of power wiring. The first is homered high voltage for the motor. The second will be a double circle around the car of a DC with higher voltage than 12V, probably 24, 48, or 96 V. Note that at this time, like all legacy cars, Tesla home runs the low voltage back to a fuse box. Instead, what would make better sense is to have single circuit breakers that come off the higher voltage line and then have them controlled via the CAN/Ethernet network. Then leave the only fuse/central box controlling the touch screen and touch screen CPU. So, if that works, then you can control all of the rest of the breakers. This should lower the costs a great… Read more »

Such speculation is fine, but Elon has said quite clearly that the Model Y will be based on the Model 3.

he said that when being chewed out by the board.

And your point is what, exactly? Do you think Elon can just ignore what the board wants, even after he agreed with them?

Either the TMY will use the same platform as the TM3, or it won’t. I think that decision has already been made, and so far as I know, it is indeed the same platform.

NIO ES6 starts at 52k before incentives, deliveries start next summer, is better looking, has all the same features and more range. By the time Model Y gets to market it will be old.

LMFAO at the serial anti-Tesla troll.

NIO is a Chinese company and how can you say that their unpproven ES6 “looks better” which is entirely subjective, than a Model Y we haven’t seen yet?

The Chinese-made Nio is going to kill the market for the Tesla Model Y? Please tell us you’re joking, dude.

No Chinese auto maker sells cars in the USA, and while I have no doubt that will change within a few or several years, it’s not going to affect the market for the Model Y anywhere outside China.

Nio SUVs are intesting with its design features

Should be about $10K more than Model 3 (adding AWD and bigger battery for more weight) at each price point so $45K base vs. Model 3 base of $35K.

Why are most ev’s amazingly expensive?

There’s a basic economic concept: Market forces generally result in better things having higher prices. Tesla cars are certainly better than gasmobiles, so why shouldn’t they be priced higher?

Cant wait to see this vehicle. Think it will out sell the model. I also think Tesla will start making it here so that when they start in china, all the kinks will be worked out.

What most people want (today) looks and feels similar to a CR-V or RAV4. Make one of those an EV with AWD and 300 miles range at 75 mph, and of course at least 2000 lbs of towing capacity for $35k; and it’s home sweet home to the majority of buyers. Likewise when somebody will make an F-series similar pickup EV that will do the same job for the same price, everyone else will follow, posthaste.

I’d buy that car for $45k without any subsidies, no seconds thoughts!

dream on. I am telling you. Tesla is not a charity or econo car maker. It is a PREMIUM CAR MANUFACTURER!!!!!! sigh..

I spent 30 years in icy, snowy areas back when no one had AWD. We got along fine.

In fact, it was 4wd or rwd.

No steep icy hills… lucky you.

It will be $35k the same way the model 3 is. AKA it won’t.

That Rivian looks mighty appealing. And GM has yet to announce what they will be selling in 2 years.

Model3 Owned- Niro EV TBD -Past-500e and Spark EV,

The question is WHERE are they going to build this — three options:
1. Gigafactory
2. Lathrop
3. NUMMI

— I would think that it’s logical to revamp the X and S lines and place them with the Semi and other production lines while consolidating the assembly lines at NUMMI for the 3 and Y. A little pain in redistribution, but maybe worthwhile for shared parts and long term logistics.

IMHO – Make the Y distinctly higher model from 3 to avoid siphoning sales — like X didn’t affect the S much at all.

To that: Y specs: AWD only; Battery back of MR and LR options only. Offer Ludicrous Lite mode – Would be interesting if there is an extended cab version in the future for 3rd row possibilities, but wouldn’t likely to see that immediately.

Musk; deliver the $35K 3 before you pitch the $40K Y…

Hmmm…I was expecting more of an SUV than a crossover. If it ever comes to fruition, maybe in 2021-22, and then trickles over to the East Coast by 2023-24, VW may already have its super interesting and lower-cost ID line ready years earlier, and may be offering the full $7500. Fed tax credit to Tesla’s chagrin.. The TMY is what Elon should have released first, not the TM3. Sedans are the last things people are buying.

A crossover is an SUV based on a sedan unibody construction, instead of a body on frame, like a truck. Since the Model Y is supposed to be based on the Model 3 platform, it’s a crossover.

Should be an interesting reservation line this time. Certainly, none of us waiting for 35k Model 3 will be there, but I imagine people with money burning a hole in their pocket will lay down some money for a chance at the $70k version and then some will wait for the performance/tow version at $85k. Guessing late 2021 at the earliest and still no idea where it will be built unless Model 3 tent is converted for early Y builds. Could end up at GF1 if the rest is built out and they have some space. I still think some southern US plant will go belly up and Elon will grab it for a song and re-tool. Big issue with that though is shipping drivetrains across the country. Would probably need another GF near southeast plant.

Maybe they figure the current administration will be gone soon and they will just export them from China back to the US and the 35 to 40k figure becomes totally doable.

You can’t tell me the current Tesla fan/cult base wouldn’t buy a China made Tesla model Y.

Tesla said the Y will be built in China before, so all that looks doable to me.

I wouldn’t buy a China. China would put a hacking data device we wouldn’t know it

It will be a new war front. We know it. Commies are already doing it.

If 7 seater and reasonably priced? Sold!

Oh no, not again. Easy on the promises this time. Price it high, and go long on the Job One date. Both can be improved in the future without any negative publicity. With all of the competition coming in the near future, new model introductions are going to have to be almost perfect.

Model 3 base = $35k. RWD. ~50kwh/220 mile range. AWD Model 3 RWD will probably be ~ $40k, and LOWER Range just like the TM3 Dual Motor/Performance scored lower with the EPA (332mi LR RWD vs 309mi LR AWD/Dual Motor… Both 18″ Aeros with Covers.)

Model Y base could = $35k RWD ~50kwh and maybe 200-mile range. AWD will probably be optional, along with the 3rd Row. But don’t expect the ~75kwh range to hit 310miles or ~62kwh to hit 264miles. It will naturally be a tad bit heavier and not as aerodynamic as its lower and shorter sedan-sibling.

People would still buy it if it had a $45k base price. Teslas is on its way to fulfilling the promise of a $35k EV. No need to make another $35k E-SUV. The Model Y will be the one people choose over the Model 3 anyway, so there should be a premium on it.

I really hope the 7 seats is an option. I would LOVE a crossover with a hatchback and 4 seats – like a smaller SUV… I don’t need a people hauler! I need a stuff hauler!

I hope its not as homely as that rendering of the front view. If Van Holshausen penned the Y, and we have no indication he did not, I trust his design will look very nice,

The Y could go with 2 conventional rows of seating and a rearward facing set of optional seats somewhat drawing from the Model S. That way, an added revenue stream helps keep MSRP lower, but gives the option of seating for smaller children to young families. A versatility advantage over rival’s 2 row designs allowed by the skateboard battery and motor configuration.

The Y cannot get here soon enough. It solves the no hatchback issue of the 3, and grabs a whole lot of customers from Tesla’s main competitors.

To add to my wish list: Hopefully Elon restrains himself from doohickeys and gadgetry on the Model Y. Think about it. The guy may have some sort of fetish about how car doors open. Every new Tesla car has a new way to operate an aerodynamic door handle. I’d like to see conventional recessed handles on the Y. Crossover SUV buyers crave versatility and practiicalty. I think it goes without saying the Y will not have Falcon doors. To get the Y on the market fastest, I hope its mainly a taller 3 with a hatch. Give it a metal roof initially with perhaps a larger than normal windscreen. A glass roof version could come out later. K.I.S.S., Elon. Some cute (surprise and delight) features could make it into the cargo area, and maybe a video system to keep track of the back seat passengers via a split screen. A flat cargo hold and roomy legroom = top priority. An around view camera as an option and ditch the wacky windshield wiper touchscreen controls as well as other learned shortcomings from tbe 3. Bring back the glovebox button as well as a couple clever stowage cubbies. A kick sensor for… Read more »

I’d love to see a Tesla car designed with the KISS principle in mind, but I doubt that’s gonna happen. *Sigh*

I agree that Elon does have some kind of fetish for non-standard car doors. The falcon-wing doors are problematic enough, but why did Elon think the Model X needed self-opening front doors?!?!

Perfectly normal car doors aren’t broke, but Elon insisted on fixing them anyway. *Sigh* again.

Personally, I very much like the door handles on the Model 3. Maybe it’s just me, but I thought the whining about them being difficult to open was silly. I’d love to see them be the ‘standard’.

The OP seems to be confusing “FSD-ready” with “FSD working” — huge difference. From the first to the second could easily take 10 years…
All that the little bird is stating is that HW 3.5 will be powerful enough to support L4 FSD. Nothing new there: Musk already tweeted last year that HW 3.0 (no need for 3.5), to be standard on Tesla cars by late spring/summer 2019, will be powerful enough for that.

Remember Tesla is a premium EV manufacturer like Apple is to the iPhone. Amazing to offer a Midsized SUV for the same MSRP as an old school gas SUV. The midsize SUV will be a big market and Tesla will eat it up with the Y. They should have come out wit the Y vs the Model 3 first but then they would have started with a million reservations which is very difficult to start producing.