Tesla Model Y Coming In A Few Years, Says Elon Musk

7 months ago by Eric Loveday 19

Tesla Model Y Render

During his recent Tweetstorm, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made at least one comment on the highly anticipated Model Y electric crossover, or compact SUV, as Tesla refers to it as:

Just A Few Years Wait For Model Y

The Model Y is expected to be a crossover based on the Model 3 platform.

Crossovers are insanely hot in the U.S., so one could assume the Model Y would quickly become Tesla’s top seller.

We’ve yet to see any official images from Tesla of the Model Y, but we expect it to look like a big brother to the 3. Taller roofline is a given, as is a raised floor. Beyond that, we’re not sure what Tesla has in store for us.

As for his “few years” statement, that would typically imply 3 years, but fulfilling all existing Model 3 orders is the priority in the immediate future, so the Y could be more than a true “few years” away still.

The last time Musk spoke of the Model Y was on the Q2 2016 earnings call when he stated the following:

“I mean, also to be clear like the priority vehicle development after the Model 3 would be the Model Y, I guess, the compact SUV, because that’s also a car that where we expect to see demand in the 500,000 to 1,000,000 unit per year level. So it’s the obvious priority after the Model 3.” 

On the other hand, with Tesla’s sales goals so high (an annual 500k run-rate by the end of 2018), one would think the Model Y would have to arrive sooner rather than later.

Perhaps we have a case of the CEO understating Tesla’s production timing on the Model Y, so as not to potentially disrupt/convert any current sales of Model 3 consumers.

ie) Sell what you have today, rather than what is coming tomorrow

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19 responses to "Tesla Model Y Coming In A Few Years, Says Elon Musk"

  1. leafowner says:

    They will likely need another production plant and another gigafactory before the Y could be properly introduced.

    1. windbourne says:

      gigafactory for the MY battery? Nope. Not needed. GF1 is capable of 35 GWH of battery production. That will mean around 700K EVs, give or take.
      As such, they can go ahead and start production of MY with GF1.
      However, that will not last long. IOW, they will have to already have picked a new site and be moving on production of it.

  2. ffbj says:

    Yowser, stock being squeezed to new heights, as Piper raises it’s forecast to $386.
    GS, with egg on their face, and shorts looking really sad.

      1. windbourne says:

        Which is WAY TOO HIGH.
        The shorts will finally make some money in the next couple of months, but compared to what they have lost? It will not even be close.

        Thankfully, the majority of the shorters, are thought to be oil and car makers, hoping to do to Tesla, what others did to Solar City.

        1. SJC says:

          Tesla has done a good job but taken too many risks. Will the stock be over $300 a year or two from now? With tax credits running out I doubt it.

  3. Ocean Railroader says:

    As of now Tesla is the EPA’s new millage standard plan to raise gas millage pure gallon pure miles driven among the US Car herd.

    If Tesla can build 400,000 cars a year that would in theroy cause gas millage to go up even under Trump.

    If Solar City’s solar roof turns into a smash hit it in theory could feed into massive coal power plant retirements.

    1. Lou Grinzo says:

      As for the “even under Trump” part, let me chime in here with what might be a minority opinion.

      I think it’s critical to keep in mind that virtually all large planning entities (corporations, local municipal governments, universities, etc.) realize that The Age of Trump is a relatively short term deviation from climate and energy policies in the US, and they’re not going to do anything stupid that they’ll regret when the political pendulum swings back in just a few years. Car companies might make short-term tweaks to their production levels of one model vs. another, but they’re not going to start engineering a new, lower MPG car/SUV/truck that won’t hit the market until T’s first term is up, one that will become a problem for them in a post-Trump world.

      We can all point to the incredibly shortsighted actions of many US corporations, but they’re not that shortsighted. All the basic drivers pushing the car industry toward electrification and sustainability are still there, and car makers won’t fall into the trap damaging themselves as we go through a period of public policy whiplash.

      (Plus, some states, like CA and NY, will do all they can to resist Trump’s fossil fueled fantasies.)

      1. TomArt says:

        Agreed. The tide (literally and figuratively) is coming in, and trump isn’t going to stop it, no matter how many gov’t websites his administration tries to purge of climate science.

        As historically dangerous it may be, I do trust in the Defense Dept. to keep trump at bay with global warming. They know it’s a genuine threat, and they’ve been following climate science for decades, assessing probabilities for geopolitical instabilities across the globe.

  4. Chris O says:

    If it looks like the car in the picture there is really no hurry…

    Always a challenge to get the design right. I think it will take a very compelling crossover version of Model 3 along with other variants like a wagon version for the European market to make that 500K/year sales rate Tesla is shooting for sustainable.

    1. Red Sage says:

      Well said. Honda sold 357,335 of the CR-V in 2016, but could barely convince 726 people to part with their dough to get the butt-ugly Crosstour. Thus, I would advise the Model Y look as little like that, the Acura ZDX, or the BMW 3-Series GranTurismo as possible.

  5. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

    Model Y = Model 3 Hatchback.

    😛

    1. So, Model W = Wagon?
      And, Model P = Pickup?
      (Ford won’t let Tesla have ‘Model T’ for Truck!)

      Model Z = Semi?
      Model M = Mini-Bus?

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        I dunno if you were being serious or not, but there have indeed been suggestions that a Tesla Pickup will be called “Model P”.

        Personally, I hope Tesla will move away from these single-letter/number designations after the Model Y.

      2. Martin Winlow says:

        Well, now that you’ve set the ball rolling…

        Model ‘B’ – boat (speedboat)
        Model ‘A’ – aeroplane
        Model ‘C’ – cycle
        Model ‘J’ – Jetski
        Model ‘S’ – Submarine…. drat!

  6. Why Not? says:

    I think the model Y will be here sooner rather than later. I agree that Musk is downplaying the model Y so as not to jeopardize sales of the M3.

    All those designers and engineers that were working on the M3 must be doing something right now and Musk made it clear that the Model Y is the next top priority. The pick-up, truck and next roadster are all long term projects at this time.

    I suspect that behind the scenes Tesla’s best minds are already feverishly working on the model Y. As hot as SUVs are right now it would be too great an opportunity for Tesla to pass up.

    1. It is a double Balancing Act: giving time both for Design and Capacity!

      The Gigafactory needs to be on the way beyong the ability to exceed the battery suppy of the first 50 GWh, heading to the 150 GWh Target, so on that front, that suggests into 2019, more than 2018, for the Battery Supply Side, which will be busy with supplying Model 3, Model S, & Model X, by mid-late 2018, at total car unit volumes at more than 7,000 cars per week, shooting for 10,000 cars per week!

      Then there is the time for the recent Freemont Factory Expansion work to be completed, and set up the line for the model Y.

      All those points lead us out to late 2018 at the Earliest, and closer to Early 2019 more likely.

      While we, as impatient as we are, would like to see the Model Y sooner, I don’t see it being revealed this year, or even 2018!

  7. SKPnSF says:

    I predict the Y will become available just as the 3 year leases begin to expire on the early M3s.