Tesla Model Y Coming In Early 2020 As A “Manufacturing Revolution”

MAY 3 2018 BY ADRIAN PADEANU 51

But the company hasn’t decided where it will be built.

In a Twitter post from March 2017, Tesla’s head honcho made the announcement about plans to roll out a Model Y, saying the smaller electric crossover would arrive “in a few years.” A teaser image (pictured above) was released later the same year in June, and now we finally know when it’s going to be launched: early 2020.

Related – Tesla Model Y Launch Date Rumored To Be March 1, 2020

The reveal was made by Elon Musk speaking in an earnings call during which he mentioned a decision about where the model will be built has not been taken yet. He went on to mention an announcement could be made as soon as the next quarter, but no later than the fourth quarter of this year. Regardless of where it will be built, the Model Y “is going to be a manufacturing revolution,” said Musk. He clarified that it certainly won’t be assembled at the plant in Fremont since there’s no free production capacity available, saying the factory is “crazy packed” and “jammed to the gills” at the moment.

Tesla Pickup Truck

Tesla Model Y Rendered

Tesla’s boss denied Reuters’ report published on April 11, which had stated Model Y production would start in November 2019 at the Fremont factory in California according to information disclosed by two unknown sources:

“We will not be starting production of Model Y next year. I would say it’s probably closer to 24 months from now… [early] 2020 is a more likely prospect.”

During the same call, Musk revealed Tesla put together 2,270 Model 3s per week last month, which was far below the necessary 5,000 weekly cars that would’ve made the company cash-flow positive. At the end of the first quarter, there were more than 450,000 reservations for the Model 3, which as we all know has had a very slow rollout.

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51 Comments on "Tesla Model Y Coming In Early 2020 As A “Manufacturing Revolution”"

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(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

I WANT A MODEL TRUCK!
Quad Cab 4WD.

EVShopper

Built on the Y platform in 2024.

Vexar

Nope. Built on the Tesla Semi platform, that was already teased.

EVShopper

That was joke.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yup.

EVShopper

I want an affordable convertible EV. Just make a drop top variant for the Model 3.

Benz

Elon Musk spoke about a Gigafactory in China.

Could it be that several (current and future) EV models will be produced at this (giant) Gigafactory?

Pushmi-Pullyu

Perhaps, but that’s not what Elon said. He did say that the next announced Tesla auto assembly plant will be in China, but he certainly didn’t suggest Tesla had made up its mind to build the Model Y there. In fact, he said:

* * * * *

We will not be starting production on Model Y at the end of next year. I would say it’s probably closer to 24 months from now. So 2020 is a more likely prospect for Model Y, early 2020.

And the production location for Model Y has not been decided. We’re really crowded here at Fremont. I don’t know where we’d put the Model Y production, so it’s difficult to imagine that. We just could not fit the Model Y production at Fremont. We are jammed to the gills here.

So one thing I know for sure, it’s not here. It is crazy packed and we’re – yeah, so we’ll try to figure out what the optimal location is for Model Y production, but it’s not here. Not here at Fremont.

(source: Seeking Alpha)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4169027-tesla-tsla-q1-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

Nix

China factory is for pac rim market only

jahav

So according to Mr. Musk, Tesla will be able to purchase, design, equip and start a factory (with no testing of course) to build yet unseen model Y in less than 24 months. Seems legit.

Let’s adjust it from Musk time to normal time, 2022 at the soonest.

Magnus H

But it’s a “manufacturing revoultion” !

Jaydee

He just ate crow on the all the machine that builds the machine talk with the model 3. Im ready for him to over promise and under deliver again

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yes, Musk’s comment that the Model Y “is going to be a manufacturing revolution” does sound awfully familiar, and not in a good way. It echoes strongly of his over-the-top claims about Model 3 production, and how that was going to completely revolutionize manufacturing by using a basic physics principles approach to running a factory.

That has not turned out well for Tesla. 🙁

Martin Winlow

Well, on the +ve side, I don’t think it is unreasonable to say that he said he would revolutionise commercial rocketry and has done so – a much taller order than a car, even an EV.

*If* he has learned his lessons from the 3 I think there is every reason to believe the Y will come in on time.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yes, SpaceX has achieved some truly remarkable things. The image of twin SpaceX rockets descending to land on their tails in perfect synchronization sent chills down my spine!

But I’m not sure Elon is capable of learning this lesson. He kept fiddling with the 2008 Tesla Roadster’s design after it was supposedly finalized, causing multiple delays and substantially driving up costs; he admitted he went overboard on making the Model X too different from the Model S; and yet he went and did much the same thing with the Model 3, going overboard in trying to set up a very different production system. Elon is now admitting he went overboard on automating TM3 production, and that this has caused substantial delays.

He failed to learn the lesson the first two times; is there a rational reason to believe he’s finally learned it after the third time? We can hope so, but I am not very optimistic!

“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” — attributed to Albert Einstein

arne-nl

Ah well, the first few falcon 9’s crash landed too. There’s no progress without pushing. Without trying. Without failing.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yes, but we expect new rockets to fail often during the first several times they are tested. It is, after all, rocket science!

We do not expect the manufacturer of a mass-produced car to try to put an experimental method of production into operation without first giving it a significant amount of testing it to see if it actually works, which unfortunately is what Tesla did with some parts of the Model 3 production line. 🙁

Asak

But how much of that is due to Musk? He had the idea, fair enough. He managed to get the project bankrolled. But it was the engineers working for him that got it to work, and as I understand it there were several points where things were touch and go for Space X.

Musk doesn’t seem to understand that not all of his success has purely been due to himself, nor that he is very capable of failing.

HH

But but but… They are learning exponentially!

MikeM

Or maybe hyperbolically?

Luke

It’s early days. As you well know, it is always difficult to undertake something new. Model 3 production will get optimized, and then it will meet the high expectations.

Asak

Other car manufacturers seem to manage just fine. If Tesla wants to run with the big boys, as their stock price indicates, then simply being new to it isn’t a viable excuse.

Asak

Musk has a real problem with arrogance. He appears to think everyone else is absolutely stupid. It’s why he thinks he can revolutionize everything (auto manufacturing, boring, etc) because he doesn’t understand how many smart people have been working on those things for decades– even including people smarter than him.

I give credit to Musk for being able to inspire people with his vision, and for having a few audacious ideas that turned out to be successful, but he’s let it all go to his head. He’s his own biggest fan and really needs someone who is capable of giving him real feedback to keep him grounded. Unfortunately it doesn’t seem that he wants that.

If Tesla succeeds it very well will be because of Musk’s good traits, but if it fails it will equally be due to his bad ones.

ModernMarvelFan

It is less than 24 month on planet Musk, but ~3.5 years on planet earth.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Two years (24 months) is the normal time it takes to build a factory and get it fine-tuned for mass production. No “Tesla time” needs to be applied here.

And for the record, Tesla did take ownership of the NUMMI auto assembly plant, now the Tesla Fremont plant, and start making the Model S there in only 18 months from purchase. However, my understanding is that the NUMMI plant was unusual in still having a lot of the manufacturing equipment still in place, so that’s an outlier figure.

You seem to be suggesting that Tesla can’t start development of the Model Y until it builds the factory that’s going to build it. That is simply not so, as Tesla has already demonstrated with the Model S. Just because Tesla has not yet done a Reveal of the Model Y doesn’t mean they’re not already working on it. Just as the BlueStar/ Model E/ Model 3 was in development for years before Tesla did a Reveal of that model, so it will be with the Model Y.

HH

Yes but the timeline is 24 months from now, not from when they have the location. If they announce end of 2018 this puts production ramp at end of 2020 and maybe 2021.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Fair point. Touché. 🙂

Magnus H

Building a plant at the same time the product is developed and tested and adjusted and reworked isn’t that streamlined. Especially if you’re going to play with developimg manufacturing methods.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Well said. If Tesla is going to, yet again, try to use experimental manufacturing techniques with the Model Y, then they had better test those well in advance to make sure they actually work — which Tesla very noticeably failed to do with the Model 3.

So yes, that would push the time required to substantially more than 24 months. Sadly, no one will be surprised to see Elon try yet again to rush the procedure. 🙁

DJ

Getting this thing delivered in to actual customers hands in numbers not akin to building them by hand in 2020 would definitely be a revolution, an on-time revolution. Wishing you the best of luck!

CDAVIS

From article: “But the company hasn’t decided where it (Model Y) will be built”
————————

If Tesla sticks to master plan of vertically combining all production under a single roof:

Gigafactory #1 Sparks, NV (for North America market)

&

Gigafactory #2 China (for China/Asia Market)

… Perhaps ditto for Tesla Semi and Roadster

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yeah, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Tesla winds up making both the Model 3 and the Model Y at two, or perhaps even more, different assembly plants. On the same call, Musk indicated that China is definitely getting the green light for an auto assembly plant (as part of a “Gigafactory” complex), but older rumors suggest that Eastern Europe is another strong possibility for Model Y production.

The 2020 Roadster will be made in relatively small numbers, and so almost certainly only at one assembly plant.

Nix

AZ skilled labor pool is too small. Gigafactory already stretching labor pool for factory worker

CDAVIS

@Nix said: “Gigafactory already stretching labor pool for factory worker”
—————

Each potential site has its sets of challenges to overcome… All things considered, Gigafactory #1 Sparks, NV seems like the logical location for start of Model Y production.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Tesla may have to resort to building subsidized low-cost housing for workers near Gigafactory One, if it wants to significantly expand operations there. I’m sure a lot of qualified workers would be willing to move there, and in a short time, if only there was housing available!

Dan F.

Plant is in Nevada.

William

My current 3 yr/45k mi. Leaf Lease ends in October of 2019. So, when can I get a $1k reservation onto the Tesla Model Y books?

Hopefully, It would be “cool” to ask the “exactly when” question, as I don’t want to get Elon any more riled up.

EVShopper

I don’t think they will open Model Y reservations until they work through a good majority of the Model 3 backlog. So end of 2019 or early 2020.

Don Zenga

With 1 USD = 1.3 CAD, it will be more cost effective to build a plant in Canada to manufacture Model-Y and ship it to all of Americas, East to Europe, West to China, Japan, Korea … Besides land should also be very cheap in that vast expanse.

Still China has not opened their market and they are letting their currency depreciate which could spark a trade war again. Or better they can consider Mexico where the cost is even lower.

ModernMarvelFan

“they are letting their currency depreciate which could spark a trade war again. ”

Did you check the current exchange rate? Chinese Yuan is around 2 years high right now against the dollars. Maybe repeating this currency depreciation claim needs an expiration date.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“With 1 USD = 1.3 CAD, it will be more cost effective to build a plant in Canada to manufacture Model-Y…”

Choosing a permanent location for an auto assembly plant based on a temporary fluctuation in currency exchange rates would be foolish. Much more important would be the cost and time required to ship everything up to Canada for assembly, then back down to the “lower 48” States for distribution. That would be rather inefficient, to say the least.

Nix

US cars will be US built. Tesla has a goal to be the most US made US car maker

arne-nl

Oh the hilarious comments on and advice for this guy that lands rockets and sends cargo ships to the ISS!

Yes he got overconfident, overestimated, delivered late, overpromised, failed. On many occasions. Yet he keeps going and in the end, always seems to somehow succeed. And you all tell him to “learn” from that which is a euphemism for conforming to the others. Do it as everybody else is doing it. Stop innovating. Stop pushing the boundaries. Don’t stick out your neck, they might chop off your head!

What a peanut gallery.

“Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.” – Homer Simpson

Pushmi-Pullyu

Innovation, experimentation, and “thinking outside the box” are good. In fact, we expect such things from “young Turk” companies like Tesla; companies which challenge existing market leaders. That’s how progress happens.

But combining experimentation with rushing things into production… that’s a foolish combination, as Tesla has demonstrated over and over. Elon needs to learn to separate the experimentation from the rushing forward. He has repeatedly failed to learn that principle, despite several very hard lessons on the subject.

And in case you’re unfamiliar with Tesla’s early history, Arne-nl, Tesla stalled out on trying to build its first car, the 2008 Roadster, until they gave up on ignoring the way Detroit builds cars, and hired some executives with experience in Detroit auto making to oversee production. Thinking outside the box is good, but ignoring the knowledge gained by long experience is not.

It’s a question of moderation. Tesla keeps trying to do too many new things at once, which results in slowing down progress rather than speeding it up, which is their goal.

“Everything in moderation, including moderation.” — Oscar Wilde

And a contrary opinion from another philosopher:

comment image

arne-nl

Since my comment did apparently not make it through moderation (I used a naughty word, not that naughty though), I’ll try to re-post.

Had Tesla not “rushed things into production”, they would now be looking for a suitable site to build a factory for that Model S of theirs. You can’t have your cake and eat it.

Thinking outside the box *is* about rejecting common knowledge and wisdom to be free to start from a blank sheet. Common knowledge was that we needed some super duper battery breakthrough for electric vehicles to become competitive with ICE cars. Luckily Tesla ignored that knowledge. Common knowledge was that reusing rocket stages was not worth it. Luckily SpaceX ignored that knowledge. Common knowledge was that phones need a keyboard, luckily Apple ignored that knowledge.

However I do remember a car start-up that did go the safe, conventional route. It went by the name of Fisker.

The problem is that you can’t know beforehand which knowledge is ripe for the dustbin of history. You’ll have to try to find out.

Don’t fall into the trap of confusing hindsight and wisdom.

David

Another of Elon’s hyperbolic claims. He’s made too many outlandish claims that he’s failed to deliver on to take these seriously anymore.

CDAVIS

@David said: “He’s [Elon Musk] made too many outlandish claims that he’s failed to deliver on to take these seriously anymore.
———————

Wrong… the opposite is true:

Elon Musk has made so many seemingly outlandish claims that he has subsequently successfully delivered on (even though often delayed) that it would be foolish not to take his claims seriously.

CDAVIS

Example #1

Falcon Heavy & Starman:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A0FZIwabctw

CDAVIS

Example #2

Tesla Semi & Roadster Unveil:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5RRmepp7i5g

CDAVIS

Example #3

Tesla Unveils Model 3:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4VGQPk2Dl8

Michael

We just got our Tesla Model 3. We were one of the first to get reservations as we stood in line the first day they were taking them. We also live in California not far from the factory. Many times I was disgusted with the delays and long wait and almost canceled my reservation. I’m so glad I didn’t.

The car is phenomenal. It’s been interesting to wrap my head around it’s simplicity. It makes my former car (and other car) seem automatically obsolete. It’s like comparing a laptop computer of today to an original home computer of 25+ years ago.

We will put a reservation in for the Y as soon as they start taking them and this time we will have more patience because we now know it is well worth the wait.