Tesla Model X Reservations Approximately 27,000 Worldwide

SEP 11 2015 BY MARK KANE 33

Tesla Model X Rolling 6 months Regional data (source: Tesla Motors Club)

Tesla Model X Rolling 6 months Regional data (source: Tesla Motors Club)

According to Tesla Motors Club estimations, as of August 31, Tesla Motors had around 27,000 Model X reservations.

There could be over 31,000 reservations, but for various reasons it seems that over 4,000 Model X reservation holders cancelled (perhaps due to Model S conversions or too long a wait, as the Model X hasn’t exactly been racing into production).

About 27,000 Tesla Model X reservations on the eve of deliveries – 80% from US

Deliveries are promised to begin this month – September 29th actually, but we doubt Tesla will be able to produce much more than 7,000-10,000 in 2015.

We estimate if Fremont, CA assembly goes off without a hitch, and 85% of the reservations actually convert to sales,  it would take Tesla to sometime into March to produce all the orders (although given the regional allocation/roll-out schedules it will actually take Tesla much longer to physically convert ‘all’ reservations to deliveries, while also delivering ideal “new” orders out of sequence).

21,574 or 80% of all reservations are from the US, which together with Canada takes 85% share.

Model S average sales in North America for several quarters have been between ~50 to 60% of worldwide sales according to our tracking.

First Tesla Model X Deliveries Will Be September 29th (Limited Signature Model X Shown Above)

First Tesla Model X Deliveries Will Be September 29th (Limited Signature Model X Shown Above)



Source: Tesla Motors Club (via Autoblog)

Categories: Tesla

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33 Comments on "Tesla Model X Reservations Approximately 27,000 Worldwide"

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7000-1000 in 2015? I would not superhold you to that since it’s superoptimistic.

7 000-10 000 that is. Doing at least 1 000 would be superrealistic, even pessimistic.

Heeh, Freudian slip?

Just as a side note, Mark’s article says “produce” 7,000-10,000 in 2015…not deliver, which I think is a significant difference in this case, given the extreme back-end build volume estimates, and any theoretical QC hold one could certainly encounter.

Most likely a Freudian slip 😛

I would assume that produced and delivered won’t be all that far apart, but of course it will be a difference between those two numbers. I would at least want to keep most early produced models close so basically California first, to cath eventual problems and recalls as fast and cheaply as possible.

Personally I would estimate about 1000 in October and 2000 each in November and Decemeber assuming everything goes smoothly.
3 000 – 6 000 would be my span. And about 4-5k delivered.

Anyway, as long as they get that damn car out there and starts to produce it in numbers I’m happy. The massive delays in the EV industry are very frustrating.

I’m totally with you on this one. The Model – for better or worse, has been the poster boy for delays in the segment.

Myself personally as well, I too will be very happy to just see it in a normal day-to-day production/delivery cycle…whatever the volume and ultimately demand happens to be (although high would be better).

Delays, just look at the 2016 Volt, the Prius and many others that have announced delays. This is a very special and unique vehicle. At least we can see the AWD Dual motors in the S.
Do you want it right or on a posted delivery date. We have seen them road testing. That’s pretty good. Personally I’m still waiting for tne model 3 that is still unseen. Next March will be fine.

Remember that Tesla start delivering the model X on Sept 29. That means some cars have already been produced by that time. Also, I believe the model X assembly line produces 1,000 cars a week. That’s 4,000 a month or 12,000 a quarter. I don’t know if they can make 1,000 cars a week right away, but it sounds like 7,000 cars is doable.

Tesla has already said that they don’t plan to achieve full production on the Model X until next year. 1000 Model X’s per week is still some months off.

Looking back at the slow initial ramp-up when the Model S first went into production, this seems realistic. Tesla’s guidance for the initial ramp-up of the Model S proved far too optimistic; I suspect they’ll be a lot closer to estimates this time.

early signature guys will get X-cars by the year end. probably only hundreds of cars will be sold this year

They have second line similar in size to S line.

Why would X production numbers be lower then 50% of S? That up to 50% loss of efficiency will disapear quickly too.

“Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”

Ramping up production of the Model X will be quite slow, for the very same reason that ramping up production of the Model S was quite slow. Tesla is far more intent on maintaining high quality than cranking out a lot of quantity.

Anyone have any guesses how much of the Asia Pacific reservation are from China and how many from Japan. 3k for China 300 for Japan?

I dunno, what is the ratio of sales of the Model S, China vs. Japan? Whatever it is, expect the ratio for the Model X to be even more lopsided in favor of China. Larger American cars don’t sell well in Japan; they prefer small, fuel-efficient compacts. Tesla will sell fewer Model X’s in Japan than Model S’s.

The Asia Pacific region is more than just China and Japan.

I know but does tesla sell in any significant numbers in any other country in that region

4,000 cancellation?

That is a good chunk of “free cash”. =)

Cancellation = refund. There is no such thing as free money.

Tesla gets free money from the interest on those deposits, unless and until they are refunded. And when Tesla refunds a deposit, it still gets to keep the money it made on interest.

.05% is not impressive

A company is rarely happy with less than a 15% yearly return on investment. A couple of years of holding that money could be a 32% increase in value.
And considering the value increase of Tesla it’s rather a lot more than 15% per year.

I have to revise my first comment, there is such a thing as free money. At least if you are a rockstar going by the name of Elon Musk.

True =)

A cleantechnica article dated July 2, 2015 says there were about 12,000 Model S reservations just prior to the start of production. Model X is now at 27,000. So, about twice as many pre-orders for the Model X over the Model S.


From the article: ‘There could be over 31,000 reservations, but for various reasons it seems that over 4,000 Model X reservation holders cancelled (perhaps due to Model S conversions or too long a wait, as the Model X hasn’t exactly been racing into production).’ Well, if I had a reservation, it would have been cancelled the moment I found out that the Signature Series (at least) 2nd row of seats could not be folded down. I have said many times that I EXPECTED to be getting a Model X to replace my Tahoe Hybrid. That is now out the window. Elon has said repeatedly that this car was to appeal to women (I read that as ‘soccer moms’ with means). Don’t some soccer moms carry around the gear, too? I don’t know, but those blasted falcon wing doors removed the utility of the roof…after you remove the utility of a decent flat bed INSIDE the vehicle, there isn’t much utility left in this ‘utility’ vehicle. [I await reports of how much range is lost while towing] I can hope that non-signature X’s might have bench seats that fold, but I am not holding my breath…so glad I did not plunk… Read more »

You know the 2nd row can’t be folded … how ?

People have been told by Tesla staff that the 2nd row seats won’t fold flat.

Previously Tesla had indicated a flat surface.
It _does_ however, look like the seats will move in some way, but nobody yet knows how. If premium-SUV-as-cargo-van is important to anyone, they’ll need to wait until there are real Xs on the road to find out exactly how the seats move.

If the seats move they don’t need to fold to create more cargo space. OP needs to think outside the box.

ItsNotAboutTheMoney said:

“People have been told by Tesla staff that the 2nd row seats won’t fold flat.”

We need to wait until we get more info about what the 2nd row seats will or won’t do. From discussion on the Tesla Motors Club forum, I suspect it’s only the premium power 2nd row seats, which is all that is available on the Signature edition of the Model X, which won’t fold flat. Perhaps lower trim versions of the Model X will have non-powered 2nd row seats which will fold flat.

There is also the possibility that these 2nd row seats will be removable, to free up rear cargo space. Just from the pictures, it’s clear the back of the 3rd row seats will fold down flat; that suggests that Tesla does intend the CUV to be able to carry lots of cargo, just like every other CUV and SUV.

It’s going to be interesting to learn just why Tesla made the Model X Signature 2nd row seats so the back won’t either recline or fold forward. Until we learn why, it’s premature to complain about it.

Removable how? You mean, a job needing two people plus somewhere to leave behind the seat structure? That’s a pretty clumsy approach to gaining more space, especially in a >$100k automobile.

But those Falcon Wing doors will sure give people a thrill down at the shopping mall parking lot!!

I think Tesla needs maybe 2 more production lines in Fremont. According to the history channels video of Fremont Tesla is only using a 1/4 of the plant for production. Maybe they need the battery plant online before more production comes. However I think the battery plant will take another 5 yrs before Tesla’s expectations of the battery plant giving at least 80% operation.

Hmm, despite costing at least twice as much as a Toyota Mirai, there are already way more people reserving a Model X.

How many people were rushing to get the Mirai again?

None. There were just a few hesitant hand raisers;)

80% of all reservations are from the US, which together with Canada takes 85% share.
I think that this high percentage is due to the Outlander PHEV not being sold in the US and Canada.

69% for the US, 73% for North America. Not 80% and 85%, that would assume that every (speculative) cancellation is from outside NA.

Having two thirds in the home market seems pretty logical considering how the sales of the Model S has been distributed.

And the Model X will probably do the same as the S and with time come to a 50%/50% (US/NA vs. rest of the world) like the S is at now.
And when the X reaches 50%/50% the S is probably at 33% NA, 33% Europe, 33% RoTW.