Tesla Model S / Model X Combined Production Set At 1,000 Units Per Week

MAY 3 2014 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 36

Tesla Model X

Tesla Model X Concept

Tesla Model X Concept

Tesla Model X Concept

Later this year, Tesla Motors will fire up a second production line at its factory in Fremont, California.  This second line will accommodate production of the Tesla Model X.

Since both the current Tesla Model S and upcoming Model X share most components, the vehicles will theoretically be able to roll off either of the two lines.  This will provide Tesla with flexibility to produce as demand dictates, meaning that if the automaker needs to manufacture say 70% Model X SUVs and 30% Model S EVs it will have that ability.

But there’s a production cap.  Value Walk reports that even with the second production line, Tesla Motors will not be able to produce more than 1,000 units per week.  So, in the above scenario, Model X production would be 700 units per week and Model S at 300 units per week.  Of course, this could be flipped the other way too so that Model S is at 700 and Model X at 300, or varied how Tesla sees fit.

With a 1,000-unit production cap, annual production will be about 50,000 units per year, give or take.  That’s what Tesla will likely stick with until Gen 3 arrives, thus driving demand way up and requiring at least a third production line.

Source: Value Walk

Categories: Tesla

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36 Comments on "Tesla Model S / Model X Combined Production Set At 1,000 Units Per Week"

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Do we know how much production space at Fremont will be used if we add 60,000 gen 3’s to the production rate?

It would be cool to see a sketch of the layout.

Of course this is great news.

I remember Elon being more optimistic, at one point he expected to be making 100,000 Model S and X cars a year, then I also remember him mentioning 70 and now 50 thousand cars. Still a good number for such expensive cars…

A manufacturing plant can technically run on 4 shifts, running 40 hr shifts 24/7. That leaves 8 hrs per week for factory maintenance .

If demand justifies, they can hire and train more workers for a swing shift from say 4pm to midnight.

I worry that Tesla cannot continue sales at the current level because their “S” and “X” cars are so expensive. Sooner or later their sales will drop off and they will be forced to reduce costs and prices. I suggest acceleration of the Megafactory and “E” car development, if possible.

If Elon’s goal is to provide EVs for the masses, today is the day to start building them.

Porsche doesn’t worry, and their entire lineup is high-end luxury…nor does BMW nor M-B or any automaker with a luxury brand (except maybe Ford).

I agree. Many people thought he was crazy with the very first. He is following the exact same methodology that got him where he is today and that is the right one.

Heck, I am even thinking about a Model S and can’t really afford it. All this with no advertising. There is a tremendous amount of growth potential in that footprint and staying that course will get him to where the Model E is achievable.

The global market for cars in the $70k plus class is about 1 million. The total global car market is about 85 Million.

There is no reason Tesla can’t sell a steady 60k Model S and 60k Model X per year.

If Tesla could have sold a $20k car 5 years ago or last year they would have done so. If they could do it next year they would do so.

They are going as fast as they can. It will simply take at least 3 years to build the GigaFactory. The GF is absolutely needed to get battery cost down to sell a Model E for $35k.

Musk is an industrialist, not a Prophet that turns sand into batteries.

Lamborghini sold 28367 cars from 1963 to 2013. In 2011 they had 831 employees and produced 1711 cars.

Got to design and test it first.

I hope Tesla could do bit more, 60.000 units in 2015 would be great! I want to see more on the streets in Europe :-).
The supercharger network is growing very fast, great Job Tesla!!!!!

I wish they would fix the dash.

good one pj.
I agree.

I thought Tesla said they were already using the new line to make the RHD cars for England, Japan, Hong Kong, etc.

GSP

Whoops. I don’t believe any of this — because it makes no sense — but if it’s true, it’s bad news. Wall Street expectations are for Tesla to deliver more than 50,000 cars in 2015 and more than 60,000 cars in 2016. If true, this means they would miss.

In any case, unless there is a component shortage (batteries), Tesla will make as many cars as there is demand — with a lag of a few months, at the most. The factory can fundamentally handle over 250,000 cars per year, perhaps closer to 500,000. If there is demand, just order some more stamping tools.

The issue is not supply. It’s demand. If Tesla has demand for 100,000 cars in 2015, they will produce close to 100,000 cars.

I don’t think there is any 50,000 limit, unless there’s a genuine component shortage.

Yeah, I find myself with no comment on the report. Value Walk is taking their best shot at.

However, the expectation of more than 50,000 cars (S/X)sold in 2015 by the market seems hard to reach and irresponsible … without some unseen factor or force to apply pressure on demand, it is highly unlikely.

I’m not sure…globally, that’s not a lot of cars, even for a luxury line…Model X might be too big of a vehicle for Europe and other compact lifestyles like Japan…I don’t know…I’ve never seen one in person, so I don’t have a good feel for how “big” it really is compared to other vehicles on the road.

I think we’ll have to see to what level Model X sales level out after about a year or so of global production. Here in SUV-happy US, it should sell well, maybe even more than the Model S…though there are those that flip out over the falcon doors due to wanting to put stuff on the roof, like skis and whatnot. It’s a brilliant design for everyday family use, particularly with car seats and such.

We’ll just have to wait and see…

SUV world in the us is full of family SUVs which are leased. Monthly payment of about $500-600. A lease of an MX will be close to double that and soccer moms will have range anxiety to deal with. The launch will not sell them but perhaps the size and quiet ride will. But for $80k and limited range it will hardly solve long family trips without arranging to follow supercharger routes. I wonder if the mom if the family will be more pragmatic and opt for an extended range type of CUV or SUV such as the Via Motors versions. For the same money as an MX you cab Judy about buy a Via Motors EREV with gas extender for long trips.

The SUV with a $500 – $600 Payment – Driven to the point of what you call Range Anxiety, is going to be cost at least that same amount for Gas as well, so the Tesla X won’t be that much more expensive – if any.

The CHAdeMO Adapter will be out by the time the X is out, and that will give you both Super Chargers (For Free) and 50 kW Quick Chargers in places without Super Chargers to select from, and anyway – what is Soccer Mom doing going on Safari with the Car? Should she not be Flying? 🙂

The message is quite clear, regardless of whether it’s 50k, 60k, or even 100k: Tesla can never achieve the goal of being a mainstream volume manufacturer without addressing the 500k+/year battery supply problem, which cannot be provided by anyone else today. Hence the intense focus on the battery gigafactory, which is needed to ramp up volume on this key component.

Henry Ford had the same issue when he realized he could not achieve the goal of being a mass market car manufacturer without building the massive Rouge River complex which was needed to process raw iron into cast engine blocks. No one else could meet his volume needs at that time.

China is still on the board. It makes sense to plan globally, as these markets develop. Quality control is also a major issue. 50,000 for U.S. consumption sounds about right. I’d like to see shifts added and 25,000 units sold in Europe in 2015.

It’s certainly a common occurrence for a model to take off in the marketplace and companies to hustle to meet demand. Listen, if 100,000 people are knocking at the door to buy a Model X, Tesla will find a way to fill those orders. I would rather wait three months to get my car, knowing that it’s quality will be impeccable ,than to receive some slapped-together car with uneven panel gaps and squeaks – like a Fisker Karma.

Tesla’s life depends on delivering quality product at a luxury price.

Agreed. If the past behavior is any indicator of the future, then they will deliver cars to meet demand when they are ready to do so, and not a moment sooner.

Tesla as two big either/or issues:
A) Sales Growth ex China, is looking anemic.
B) If it is indeed a production capacity issue then they will need to spend billions to expand capacity.

Either scenario is worrisome financially since it means they will need to yet again take on more debt.

A) Demand is strong in USA, China, and Norway.

Deliveries are down in USA due to capacity, diverting supply elsewhere and recently to some cannibalization due to Model X.

Although Norway has a small population of 5M it has a GDP per capita of $100k. And demand is growing. A steady sales rate of 5-10k combined units of Model S and X are easily achievable here if there is consistent supply.

B) Hiring and training more workers for a 2nd swing shift or a 3rd graveyard shift will not cost billions. In this economy blue collar workers would be grateful to have these $70k/year plus jobs even during non-standard hours.

Every 100,000 cars a car company wants to build takes about $10 billion in total build out capex and opex. To hit this number Tesla has already hit over 4 billion. 1.234 billion in negative retained earnings plus 660m and 2.2b notes. Plus the stock float sold.

Speaking of the Model X, I know that Tesla likes to cut things close, but they haven’t paraded around an alpha yet, much less a beta for crash-testing…insideevs reported on a Model S with a weight on the roof, supposedly for working on the AWD aspects of Model X. If the first deliveries are to be near the end of this calendar year, shouldn’t they be in the midst of hot and cold weather testing and crash testing? We should be hearing about pricing this Summer, yet none of the above things are known to have taken place. They were much more open about the Model S…

If a production line has a 500 car per week limit and there are 13 weeks in a quarder, Q4 could have seen at most 6900 Model S sales. But there were 6900. Something doesn’t add up.

Typo. “could have seen at most 6500 Model S sales”

Cars built in Q3, with a lower sales number than expected were delivered in Q4. Not a blow out but slippage.

Q1 figures are in: almost 7500 cars were built in Q1, so we can safely forget the supposed 1000 car per week limit.

700 model x 300 model s

are u sure 1000 per week is only second line’s capacity

Your all sucking on the muffler. They will suffer from capacity constrains in the battery. In addition if they are producing 89 percent of the x model. Its a lower end car so the profit margins goes down. California its reducing the free hand out. Recently read an article the amount of coal is 75 pound to waste recharging the cars. No Eco friendly. The company will fail. No business Elon has built was profitable under his watch.

Wait – you Suck? I was Blowing all this time for nothing!

The model S doesn’t have a muffler so the idiocy in what you typed started at the very first remark… and then got even more ridiculous.

Is your real name Dino?

The model X looks sick what a car, it looks better than design studio

We’ll of course the ugly nose cone can’t be seen 😉