Tesla Model S Deliveries / Production Comparison

AUG 10 2015 BY MARK KANE 13

Tesla Model S Gets Assembled In Fremont, CA

Tesla Model S Gets Assembled In Fremont, CA

Tesla's Fremont Factory

Tesla’s Fremont Factory

By the end of June, Tesla Motors had delivered worldwide over 78,000 Model S sedans.

If we compare deliveries and production in addition to the Q2 report, we will see that total production was around 7,000 higher – all those cars are currently in different stages of deliveries (or demos) around the world.

7,000 historically is just over 2 months worth of deliveries.

In the past six quarters, average increase of difference between cars produced and delivered was roughly 1,000 a quarter.

Some quarters, Tesla is steps backwards as the factory needs retooling or there is pause in production for a brief period. That’s what we see in Q3 forecast, but Q4 should again be significant step up to achieve 50,000-55,000 for the year (after 21,577 in the first half).

Tesla Model S Deliveries/Production Comparision

Tesla Model S Deliveries/Production Comparison

Categories: Tesla


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13 Comments on "Tesla Model S Deliveries / Production Comparison"

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Time to short TSLA!

You’re a bit late, it’s already done….

A few times…

Some european deliveries happen up to 2+ months after leaving the end of production – and so, perhaps a few thousand are on boats, trains and whatnot?

As I understand it, it’s the China deliveries which really increase the average delivery time. China is notoriously hostile to imports, and one of the ways that is expressed is with extensive red tape and delays in passing through customs. That and, of course, the actual shipping time to China is relatively long.

One consequence of China sales picking up is that the average delay between production and sale increases.

It has also been reported that a few months ago, Tesla switched from trucking to rail transport for Eastern Seaboard deliveries in the USA. That has also extended delivery times, altho presumably not by that many days.

When the X roll out, there will be more than 80 000 S sold, and more than 500 supercharger stations!

Tesla has apparently past the 100,000 mark in assigned VINs. Here’s a few reports of VINS over 100,000.

bonaire | 6 Agosto 2015

On TMC, a buyer in Denmark reports: 100192

john.faranda.79 | 10 Agosto 2015

I just received #100617 for a 90D with a September delivery date. Initial order date 7/31/15.

nbodkins | 10 Agosto 2015

I’m #100526. Ordered on 8/1.


These VINs most likely do NOT represent the true number of Model S actually delivered or in the delivery pipeline.

Nevertheless, it’s interesting to note the VINs as Tesla really does close in on 100K Model S sales. They might do it before the end of the year.

Will Tesla throw a big party at the 100K milestone, or just let it slide by silently ?

Tesla has yet to miss a milestone, so surely 100k Model S sales will be celebrated. 🙂

Not many car manufacturers lived so long that they did 100k cars.
And even though Tesla are still in the very beginning they are hitting milestones. One of the next ones could be to get ahead of Ferraris total sales in history, which should be somewhere around ~170k.

Oh, it’s a significant milestone for the company. Pretty sure there will be a party. 😉

Tucker built 51 cars. So the ignorant folks who try to bring up Tucker over and over will look pretty foolish comparing a company with 100,000+ units sold to a company that built 51.

I understand the deliveries vs. production on this graph, but those variances are completely dwarfed by the bigger picture of BOTH deliveries and production numbers growing at a massive upward pace.

All the date balls keep trending up the numbers in both directions. And at a pretty decent pace.

This graph is still showing good news about Model S sales unless/until the date balls start going down significantly for multiple quarters (and staying down).

To me, this graph just indicates a shift in sales more towards global markets with longer delivery pipelines, and US sales making up a smaller percent of sales. As production continues to increase (which we can see clearly from the graph), the lag time between production and delivery HAS to show up on this graph.

For example, if you build 5 cars in one quarter, and then ship them overseas, they aren’t sold until next quarter. Next quarter you sell those 5 units and build 7 more and ship them. The quarter after that you deliver 7, and build 9 and ship them. Repeat. You will always have a numbers gap between production and delivery as long as you continue to sell more vehicles each quarter.

Since we actually do know that Tesla has increased both the number of countries they sell in, and the number of cars sold in foreign markets, this graph seems to match a reality we already know to be true.

Good chart – thanks!