Check Out This Sea Of Tesla Model 3s Waiting For Delivery

Tesla Model 3

JUL 21 2018 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 72

Where are all those finished Tesla Model 3 sedans that have yet to be delivered?

The above question has been popping up quite often in our InsideEVs comment section. Just the other day, we reported that Tesla had passed 50,000 Model 3s produced, according to Bloomberg’s tracker. However, we want to remind you that the tracker is not necessarily accurate on a short-term basis, but it paints a fair picture. Our monthly sales scorecard doesn’t show 50k Model 3s delivered. What gives?

SinceĀ there are so many potential situations and variables here, it would be very hard to put a finger on it. Additionally, as we estimate Tesla delivery numbers, a lot of work is involved and we can’t divulge or explain all of our methods. Some obvious factors include (but are not limited to), showroom and test-drive vehicles, deliveries in Canada, and a long list of Model 3 vehicles in transit, as reported by Tesla.

According to this Tweet from Model 3 Owners Club, the latter is proving very true. It will be interesting to see how many of these vehicles Tesla can deliver in July:

TESLA MODEL 3

33 photos
2. Tesla Model 3
Range: 310 miles; 136/123 mpg-e. Still maintaining a long waiting list as production ramps up slowly, the new compact Tesla Model 3 sedan is a smaller and cheaper, but no less stylish, alternative, to the fledgling automakerā€™s popular Model S. This estimate is for a Model 3 with the ā€œoptionalā€ (at $9,000) long-range battery, which is as of this writing still the only configuration available. The standard battery, which is expected to become available later in 2018, is estimated to run for 220 miles on a charge. Tesla Model 3 charge port (U.S.) Tesla Model 3 front seats Tesla Model 3 atĀ Atascadero, CA Supercharging station (via Mark F!) Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 The Tesla Model 3 is not hiding anymore! Tesla Model 3 (Image Credit: Tom Moloughney/InsideEVs) Tesla Model 3 Inside the Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 rear seats Tesla Model 3 Road Trip arrives in Tallahassee Tesla Model 3 charges in Tallahassee, trunk open.

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72 Comments on "Check Out This Sea Of Tesla Model 3s Waiting For Delivery"

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Can’t wait to see July deliveries. We are so used to the narrative ” EV(fill in the blank) had a fantastic month delivering a whopping 2,000 units!” This is gonna be UUGE. December is always a big push. Remember when the Model S crossed the 5,000 mark which was miles past the previous 3,500 set by the Volt. Now the Model 3 is almost certain to break the 10,000 mark this month causing 25,000 record months for the 40+ US EV offering from here forward. As this article indicates, the pipe is primed with vehicles. With close to 4,000 Model 3’s produced per week, the stage is set for at least nine months but most likely two years. Then arrives the Model Y. Stir and repeat.

I predict 9,839 TM3s delivered in July.

Interesting, there was over 11K in transit to customers on July 1, so if Tesla only delivers 9839 in July, wouldn’t that be disappointing? I think 15K would be the minimum that would show Tesla is healthy, but over 20K is not outside the realm of possibility.

My prediction is just a silly guess underscored by my very specific number.
If Tesla delivers 15K or more TM3s in July, I will be delighted.

Anything over 10,000 for the 3 deliveries here in the US will be a huge victory. Stop moving the goal post! LOL!

With 11K in transit July 1, 10K would be a sign of something wrong…

I certainly hope Tesla is well north of 20,000 Model 3’s sold in July. They are claiming 5000 a week so I certainly hope they are selling that many and it seems fairly certain that they held back sales in June so as not to cross the 200,000 threshold. While normally 10,000 EVs sold would be great Tesla needs to be selling way more than that.

Tesla builds 5,000 3’s a week in burst mode, I believe. But every quarter their burst mode number goes up significantly.

They did 5000 in the last week of June to meet the target, but they weren’t there sustainably yet, and employees put in a lot of overtime to achieve that. My wildass guess is <4000/week is comfortable right now with no interruptions, and of course things are being optimized to hit a higher rate in August. So 15k produced in July is the max that I expect.

But as you mentioned, given the stockpiling to delay the 200,000th vehicle, I think it makes a lot of sense that deliveries should be about as high as the stores are capable of.

PRAISED BE LOL CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP EARTHLINGS co2.earth

Love your enthusiasm but your posts are getting painfully unoriginal.
Go Tesla!

My messages are not meant to entertain they are meant to highlight humanity’s contribution to POLLUTION LOL CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP FOLKS thanks co2.earth

You’re sort of preaching to the choir here. Not only that, but it’s the repetition that becomes adversarial. Those who read InsideEVs don’t need the superior attitude your constant harping conveys. Give it a rest. It is irritating, and nothing more.

Perhaps you should stop preaching to the choir.

Edit: what Unplugged said!

But if you want entertainment checkout President Tweet on Twitter LOL CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP FOLKS thanks co2.earth

President Trump, LOL indeed.

I meant to say SAD!

Two words which should never be used in the same sentence: “President” and “Trump”. šŸ˜‰

I don’t follow Trump on tweeter so what did the nit wit post now. By the way Trump speaks English like it’s a second language and posts comments on twitter like a second grader.

What embarrassing thing did the Big Cheeto Tweet now? There’s such a long list…

“Praised be LOL”? Now that’s a fascinating message…

Spam

If there are10,000 M3s over and above what is in transit then thereā€™s an extra $500,000,000.00 to $600,000,000.00 of revenue you can expect to show up on the books in Q3 and Q4. Most of the associated expenses would have been recognized in Q2. Thatā€™s part of how you achieve the profitability that Elon promised.

Shorters: drop your shorts, bend over, and prepare yourselves for the big hurt

Stock market is not so simple. If it were, all of us would be wealthy.

The market trades on expectations of the news and the Q3 and Q4 potential profit is already baked in the current stock price. I’d love to see TSLA go higher but have no such expectations in the near future.

ā€œStock market is not so simple. If it were, all of us would be wealthy.ā€

Arenā€™t we? Of course it isnā€™t that simple. Note I indicated it was only part of the equation. How many billions have the shorters lost now? We keep getting the prognostication that TSLA will be out of money in a quarter or two and when that doesnā€™t happen the posters have to create a new handle to post with due to their loss of credibility.

Your handle looks relatively new.

You are right about Tesla, they are still here and hopefully around for a long time to come.

I’m fairly new to this website but am planning to follow it closely.

No Thai Rescue Sub is necessary, to show the Tesla Shorters, “where it hurts”.

Hey Jim Chanos, take a few overflowing parking lots, with a bunch of factory fresh TM3s, and stick ’em where the sun don’t shine!

I’m sure they will find a way to put a negative twist on it. Like they always do.

Yes they will say teslas are missing parts LOL

The short case is not actually if/when TSLA can become profitable.

It’s whether it can grow bigger than F, to justify its current market cap.

That’s not what Chanos says…

Chanos built his reputation on the Enron forecast. Since then, he has been incorrect more often than not in his market analysis.

Yes, Jim Thanos has failed to even keep up with the S&P 500 since June 2013, based on tipranks data, returning only 65% compared to 124% invested in the S&P 500 over the same time. Half the returns!

https://www.tipranks.com/hedge-funds/jim-chanos

Compared to investing in TSLA he is even further behind. If you invested $10,000 in his fund in June 2013 you would now have around $16,500 (minus fees). If you put that same money into TSLA stocks, you would have around $33,000 dollars worth of TSLA shares.

He is a one hit wonder. The A-HA of the financial world.

+65% in a raging bull market is almost superhuman for a short fund.

Investors don’t put money with Chanos to beat the market. They do it to hedge their market exposure (or overexposure, as the case may be).

Yeah, he built his reputation on uncovering two fraudulent companies. Turns out though that there aren’t enough of these on the stock market to make a sustainable business out of that… So he turned to trying to bring down perfectly legit companies. Thankfully, with no success thus far. Though his anti-Tesla campaign unfortunately does put a temporary damper on their growth…

revenue is fine – but how about profits?
My short thesis is based on losses, not lack of revenues

Only a few production expenses could be booked in Q2. All variable expenses (material, parts, labor, and maybe more) get booked as cost of goods sold in the quarter of delivery, even if they were actually paid for earlier.

But it does help in terms of spreading fixed expenses over the gross margin of more cars.

I’ve seen 3 Model 3s in the wild now, the last 2 just last week.

Gotta say I really like the front fascia and the nose in general.

If & when Tesla comes out with an Audi S5-esque option, I’ll be their biggest fanboy.

Until then, I’ll be happy in my $15,800 2018 LEAF.

Porsche and Jag will be here first with better-looking options…

In the arcade game biz there’s NOS — ‘new old stock’ — stuff that is old but never used. Wish we had some ‘NOS’ Porsche 944s, FD RX-7s, Toyota MR2s we could pull the powertrain out and convert to BEV. I’d be all over that.

Porsche and Jag won’t make enough cars to supply their own demand let alown make a dent in Tesla:s.

What makes you think that?

People keep saying that the 20,000 I-Pace planned per year are way too low — but Jaguar has never been a volume manufacturer; and the I-Pace seems to be a bit of a niche offering. I’m not sure demand will really be much higher.

As for Porsche, I don’t think any number has been mentioned at all?

Electric Audi S5 would be dreamy.
I don’t think it’s gonna happen any time soon.

Are those ones headed for the storage lot at Lanthrop or Burbank?

SB lots still full of them, too. Must be awaiting parts for re-work?

Honestly, can’t you Tesla bashers come up with anything more original than that?

How embarrassing for you.

PP: do you have a hypothesis about the thousands of TM3s stocked in parking lots?

Nah, he never sees anything strange about any of it.

I did stop back by the packed local lot last night– most of the TM3s have the dreaded “blue tape syndrome” with a Service Tag adhered to the tape. That usually means they are awaiting re-work. Almost all the rear seats have ‘white version tags’ on them, which would indicate they’ve made a running change in the rear seats– so must be waiting for an update.

VINs are all in the 35000-45000 range.

But unfortunately, you forgot to take any pictures?

I wonder how many of them were originally headed for Ontario, and are being redirected to other customers now that many orders have been cancelled after the incentive was killed…

Here’s where a dealer network really helps. Dealers have large parking lots, so you can make cars without leaving them to bake in the sun for weeks, as Tesla has done in CA. 3K cars at least, by my reckoning.

Are you under the false impression that cars on dealership lots are magically blocked from the sun’s rays? Average days on lot is typically 60 days. And that is AFTER the cars finally made it to the dealership. If they were imported they sat at a port somewhere waiting to be delivered to a dealership. And every single car maker has lots they store cars in coming off the factory floor before they are are even put on boats headed for the US.

I realize in your ignorance that you believe if you hold your thumb up and block the sun, that you believe it doesn’t exist anymore, but why prove your ignorance over an over so publicly?

More like 5K at this point… Its weird that they are storing so many… I have tried to figure out a way that Tesla is being honest about distributing, but over the last few days not 1 truckload of cars has been leaving, just dozens of loads of cars being hauled it. It does not make sense… and the deliveries being reported on the Tesla forum, and M3OC are not going smoothly from what I was reading. I see the Burbank lot has a diesel powered Supercharger installed.. That looks sustainable, why are they not using the Solar that Tesla sells? and the way this operation was thrown together, does not look like long term planning was involved.

Yeah, it’s just ‘unusual’ that a Build-to-Order product would have lots of finished units sitting around. Maybe they are just waiting for a new software release? But they clearly aren’t delivering all the production to customers. Santa Barbara is a large market for Mods X and S, and you basically never see “inventory” of those (other than a few used/trades) around. Yet they’ve got all the lots full (>100 cars) of Model 3. Makes zero sense.

Tesla requires full payment before the car can be delivered. Some people might have problems getting their loans approved in time or if they pay in cash, they might have issues with liquidity.

I have some experience with my first TM3, Tesla notified me that I can get my car delivered in two weeks and I had to scramble to get a load of cash to pay for the car. I can easily see a situation where people have to delay a shipment to get their finances together.

Actually, you raise a really good point. The lack of certainty on delivery probably has put pressure on people who made other financial decisions in the meantime. So, yeah, they could be scrambling to get financing in place.

There’s maybe 10% of the SB cars on the lot that have a “Delivery Notice” taped in the windshield– those are clearly nearterm, allocated-to-a-customer status. I’m still perplexed by the other 90% that have been sitting there for awhile.

“Dealers have large parking lots, so you can make cars without leaving them to bake in the sun for weeks…”

šŸ™„ Good grief!

Perhaps you should come out of the hole under the bridge you live in, and visit a few car dealer lots. You might then notice that none of them are covered, and all have cars “baking in the sun” as you call it.

Sometimes I wonder if you have to have a lobotomy to become a serial Tesla bashing Usual Suspect.

PRAISED BE LOL CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP FOLKS THANKS CO2.EARTH

Nothing in the article or the tweet showed a “sea of Model 3s”.
Tesla needs to deliver about 30k cars this month in order to align their production with their delivery backlog.

30k? No.

10k+ in transit is the new normal for Model 3. Each month they should deliver all the in transits from the prior month plus the first 15 days or so of current month production. July should come in around 11k + 7k = 18k. This logistics snafu says it’ll be less. I’m not sure they’ll even deliver all 11k transits, which would be truly bizarre.

My theory is they stopped building to order in late June to increase production rate. Musk told his team at the last minute to whip together some matchmaking code. With “all those reservations” it should only take a few days, right? Ha.

I saw one truck just a few hours ago on the 15 going south… get ready San Diego!

Tesla is growing its production and its deliveries. That of course means it needs more space for staging shipments. That’s a perfectly predictable result.

I would not have thought anyone would need to have this explained to them, but clearly I was wrong. Even Business Insider, despite its notoriety for Tesla bashing fake news, ran a perfectly reasonable and factual report on this a day or two ago. A relevant quote:

“We use Lathrop as a loading hub for cars being shipped to other locations for delivery to customers,” a Tesla spokesperson said in a statement to Business Insider. “As our deliveries increase, we’re obviously going to have more cars there.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-tesla-model-3-cars-are-sitting-in-california-parking-lots-2018-7

The Tesla hating short sellers must be getting very, very desperate to try to spin this into a bad thing!

Go Tesla!

So you “perfectly predicted” Tesla delivery centers would still get only a trickle of model 3s a month after the factory hit 700/day? How does that make any sense?

You don’t need huge staging lots in a build to order system. You queue up VIN assignments by color and queue up your trucks by destination. At 5k/week you’ve got a truck or two per day going to major DCs and a truck a day going to pairs of smaller DCs. Cars coming off the line shouldn’t sit for more than a few hours.

I think Musk decided build to order would prevent 5k, so he switched at the last minute to a matchmaking system. Now they’re scrambling.

You seem to have a very simplistic view of logistics…

Tesla cost me $14;000.00 by taking way to long to deliver a car.

Hopefully Tesla will apologize for the delay past the July 11 deadline, which made you ineligible for the $14k, incentive.

The new Conservative Ontario Provincial Government has cut the Cap and Trade program in order to try and reach their goal, in bringing down gas prices by $0.10 a liter.

You still have a little over a month to get the incentive on an EV delivered from a legacy ICE Stealership, as long as it’s registered, and plated before September 10th.

Your $14k Tesla savings won’t obviously materialize, but the rest of the ICE drivers around Ontario, should save almost 2 Billion dollars per year,

Instead of blaming Tesla, you should lobby the Ontario government to extend the tax credits.

Governments fault Tesla was slow to ramp production?

Yeah, they were so very slow; while every other car maker goes from initial design discussions to mass production in less than 3 1/2 years…

sorry to hear that! I get the feeling you are not the only one…

Right, Tesla is to blame for you f***ed-up government…