Tesla Model 3 VIN Registrations Up, Production Down

Tesla Model 3 Production


Interestingly, Tesla Model 3 VIN registrations are way up, but Bloomberg’s tracker shows production is down.

The curious part about this observation is that Bloomberg’s tracker relies primarily on NHTSA VIN registrations. Of course, that’s not the only data the publication uses, but even its second method uses VINs reported on social media.


Red Tesla Model 3As we’ve said all along, VINs can give us a bit of an idea of which direction production is headed, but it’s surely not a true indication of production, and especially not deliveries.

This is even more true related to Tesla, since the automaker registers VINs for models it may not even build for an extended period of time and skips numbers altogether to throw a monkey wrench in peoples’ estimates.

According to Electrek, VINs suggest that Model 3 production “could be 2,000 units per week.” This is an extremely optimistic viewpoint, especially when considering that the line has been down periodically and the automaker has yet to prove big delivery numbers with the new car.

The publication does suggest that even though Tesla has registered over 15,000 Model 3 VINs, it may not have produced so many cars. As of the time of this writing, Bloomberg estimates that the company has built 10,411 Model 3 sedans.

As you can see, Tesla registered over 2,000 new VINs on March 20, 2018. Electrek shared that this is some 4,500 thus far this March. The premise is that if VIN registration is ramping up, it may correlate with increased production. Nonetheless, the Bloomberg tracker shows production slowing again to 817 per week at this point.

What do you think?

Keep the conversation going on our Forum. Start a new thread about this article and make your point heard.

Sources: Electrek, Bloomberg

Categories: Tesla

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38 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 VIN Registrations Up, Production Down"

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Well it is March right? — Here’s exactly what Elon said during the call:
“[We] expect the new automated lines to arrive next month in March. And then it’s already working in Germany so that’s going to be disassembled, brought out to the Gigafactory and reassembled and then go into operation at the Gigafactory. It’s not a question whether it works or not. It’s just a question of disassembly, transport and reassembly. So we expect to alleviate that constraint. With alleviating that constraint, that’s what gets us to the roughly 2,000 to 2,500 unit per week production rate.”

Thanks. It’d be nice if someone could hold him accountable.

Will be interesting to see what production has actually been in Q1, what the excuse is now, and what unquestionable predictions Elon will make up this time.

It is already the best selling USA EV currently and that is with sales down. 🙂 1st quarter numbers are certainly down as they get this equipment in and ramp up. Keep following the sales scorecard for the 2nd quarter. You should bash #2, #3, etc on that scorecard for not being #1 when #1’s sales are down! 🙂

it depends on the manufacture. Let’s not forget that Tesla should be #1 in the US seeing that it started selling EVs here before most people started to sell theirs so Tesla has a leg up on competition in the US. With that said, out of the US Tesla’s numbers do not look great and in some countries are low double digits while other companies numbers are mid to high triple digits.

Look at all these folks that were out in 2012! (image below) They supposedly had the manufacturing down to a science as well. Nissan building the LEAF in 3-4 countries is a standout. GM and Nissan had *EVs out in Dec 2010!! That is 7+ years ago!


Nissan produces in three continents not four and the Leaf is the BEV of the year with the most sales,GM and Nissan,made history seven years ago but have made money ,making lots of cars since.Tesla has lost money 99% of the time and makes in a year what the big boys make in three days.
GM and Nissan are honest about their BEV intentions while Tesla lies, and misleads in every utterance. All will be forgiven when they actually produce the 3 in volume, but when?

Not to say that Tesla is a paragon of virtue when it comes to not engaging in hype, but I certainly agree with the conventional wisdom that Tesla does deliver on its promises; just not when they promised.

As far as claiming GM is honest about its BEV intentions, well that’s probably true… altho where is the “Buick Volt” which was promised? Maybe that is still in development, but we haven’t heard a word about it for several months now.

By specifying “BEV”, I suppose you are deliberately ignoring all the lies GM told about the Volt in its early days. Promising “up to 50 miles” of EV range before it went on sale, but delivering a car rated by the EPA at 50 miles; claiming the Volt was a pure serial hybrid, and even after admitting that wasn’t true, GM falsely claimed that the ICEngine was never directly engaged in the powertrain. And of course, let’s not forget the infamously advertised claim of “230 MPG”!

If GM has “gotten religion” and stopped lying about its EVs… well, that’s a rather recent development, innit? Some of us EV fans don’t forget the not-so-distant past so quickly.


“Let’s not forget that Tesla should be #1 in the US seeing that it started selling EVs here before most people started to sell theirs ”

I guess you’ve completely forgotten about the EV1.
And Ranger Pickup EV.
Original RAV4 EV.
Honda EV Plus.
Chevy S10 EV.
Chrysler Epic EV.

All those major car companies had EV sales an entire decade before Telsa sold their first car. If they had grown at Tesla’s growth rate, they all would have had half a million in EV sales by the time Tesla sold their first full production car (the Model S).

But I guess you don’t think those sales should count, because the automotive industry who built those cars successfully lobbied and sued their way to halt their own EV production and sales?

Sadly, instead of having a half million unit lead based upon the same growth rates before the Model S ever came out, Tesla is still out-growing them despite the ICE car maker’s decade lead on sales, and decades lead on R&D in EV’s. Sadly the only thing repeating itself is the ICE car makers lobbying and suing to try and REDUCE their own EV sales numbers.

The thing is Nissan or GM’s profitability doesn’t hinge on sales of their EVs. It’s kind of an apples to oranges comparison. Even if Tesla were the only one selling EVs in the US it really wouldn’t make a lot of difference regarding their need to get TM3 sales up.

I think we are slowly seeing Pro-Tesla analysts starting to become neutral in their reporting and bringing to light how behind and in trouble Tesla might be in this quarter. Let’s see if anybody holds Tesla’s management accountable for once again missing a deadline that is becoming more and more conservative.

Man did you start watching Tesla last week?
No-body-cares, exactly how or when Tesla will achieve the production goal, but it will be reached.

Musk has a LONG Track Record of Success, or the stock wouldn’t be were it is. He has a long track record of success marked by delays. Tesla History, and Tesla Success.

I hope TSLA drops to 250 per share so that I can buy buy buy lol

Don’t hold your breath. There is terrific resistance at $300 a share. It’s expensive any way you look at it and probably will continue to be.

You are so right, I tell people “NEVER bet against Elon”. Who would have believed he could have done what he already has? Who starts their own space program? Past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior.

“I think we are slowly seeing Pro-Tesla analysts starting to become neutral in their reporting and bringing to light how behind and in trouble Tesla might be in this quarter.”

Then why hasn’t Tesla’s stock priced dropped off a cliff?

No, you’re just repeating the same ol’ same ol’, tired, worn-out FUD that Tesla bashers have been repeating every single day since Tesla’s stock price started rising significantly.

Show me where you predicted anytime prior to 2014 that TSLA shares would break $300, and I will start listening to where you think the price will go. Otherwise you are just another of a long list of sore losers who have been saying for the last half decade that TSLA share prices will crash, only to be proven wrong over and over as each dip is proven to be just regular old volatility and not the end of Tesla. And yet they keep coming back over and over claiming they must be right this time after being wrong, wrong, wrong endlessly. The reality is that Tesla insider bean counters, and Musk’s lawyer with access to inside information just negotiated a contract which only pays out when TSLA share prices keep going up and up. Both parties have a very real fiduciary duty to negotiate to the best of their abilities the parties they represent. All signs point to all the parties with the best available inside information all believing the price will continue to increase. Musk’s incentive program represents the best inside information available to insiders. Bet against Musk’s contract based on inside information at your own peril. Now… Read more »

He also later clarified that 2,5k production rate per week would be done without the line from Germany. That the German line would add another 2,5k per week of capacity (obviously for a total of 5k per week then).

Yes. I heard that, too. WTF is the major malfunction? We should be seeing 10,000 new VINs per month THIS month and 20,000 per month by June, after the second module line gets up to speed.

The 2.5K number is just battery packs. But the latest reported delays weren’t for battery packs assembled at the gigafactory. The latest delays were in Fremont to reconfigure the assembly line to fix timing issues.

Production is at the rate of the slowest component or element. And there is always a delay in the pipeline from completing 2.5K battery packs to delivering 2.5K cars to customers. So just indicating battery pack capacity of 2.5K doesn’t automatically translate instantly to 2.5K completed cars being delivered to customers at the exact same time.

A couple of things to take away from that statement. For one the next day, the company came out with a 8-k stating that Tesla has the necessary equipment currently installed at the Fremont and Gigafactory plant to hit 2500/wk without the Grohmann line fro Germany. Another thing is this Grohmann automation line is for the Gigafactory and not for the Fremont factory. Thus whatever production rate they have at the Gigafactory has no correlation to the production speed at Fremont. This what many people seem to be confused about and trying to link the two together. The biggest problem for Tesla right now is that in 8 months, they have only been able to produce so far about 10,500 cars or about 7800 during the first quarter of 2018 according to the Bloomberg tracker. The problem with that is there is 13 weeks a quarter and even at 1,000 cars a week, Tesla should have been able to produce 13,000 model 3s at minimum which is what the stated line speed was at the end of December. Tesla is in a world of hurt if they come out in 10, 11 days and say they only produced ~8,000 cars… Read more »

“Another thing is this Grohmann automation line is for the Gigafactory and not for the Fremont factory. Thus whatever production rate they have at the Gigafactory has no correlation to the production speed at Fremont. This what many people seem to be confused about and trying to link the two together.”

Thank you! I’m surprised at how many comments posted to InsideEVs confuse the two.

Recent reports we’ve seen about Tesla stopping the production line for adjustments have — so far as I can tell — all been about the Fremont assembly plant, and not Gigafactory One, where a new highly automated assembly line is scheduled to be installed soon, or perhaps that is already in progress.

I would like to see a high amount of cars delivered for the quarter, but what would be more important the me is what the line is capable of now.
We know there has been interruptions to work on bottlenecks, and the best course is to fix bottlenecks, rather than chase deliveries for now.

Why the hell was it built in Germany? It seems to me even if they bought a German company they could have brought the engineers over temporarily to work closer to the actual line. Disassembling and shipping something this complex from Germany and then reassembling…that’s got to take some significant time.

Sure, Tesla should have packed up the entire factory, lock, stock, and machine tools, along with all the workers and their families, and put the factory together at the Gigafactory One site. Then when the line was installed, they could have disassembled the factory and shipped it back to Germany.

I’m sure all that would have taken far less time, effort, and expense.

Oh, wait…

Because making the best industrial products is what Germany does.

Because this is how every single car maker does it.

Assembly lines are not developed on assembly line floors. They are constructed and tested off-site. Only once all that work is done, is the previous assembly line in the factory disassembled and the new assembly line put in place.

The automotive industry regularly schedules shutdowns for retooling assembly lines. The same company doing this for Tesla has been doing the same thing for companies like BMW and Audi/VW for years exactly the same way. Including shipping assembly lines to their factories here in the United States, just like Tesla.

Bloomberg’s tracker is delayed, and imperfect. Not saying it doesn’t have value, but it is a lagging indicator. My guess is it is a week behind. I think it is also tied to deliveries? It is maybe closer to a sales indicator than a production indicator. It also naturally averages, so the production halt shows as a dip in production a week later.

I agree but even being a week behind the only real increase is the number of cars Tesla has produced not the production rate. I think Bloomberg tracking model is close and at most the production rate is off by 50 or so. 100 max.

Yeah, I would call Electrek’s take extremely ‘optimistic’.

Most VINs reported by reservation holders on TMC this month have been between 7500 and 9500. So far, VINs reported by actual owners this previous week of March are averaging about 9150. There are a few that are higher (10000 or more) and a few that are lower. (Below 7000) But either way, these VINs were primarily registered with NHTSA in late December or mid-to-late January. So it will likely be another month at least before most of these new VINs are assigned to an actual vehicle.

Taking into account an average VIN this past week of ~9,150 and the 6,150 deliveries between last summer and the end of February, that would put likely deliveries this month about 3,000.

I’m thinking some of the production from this week will make it to California buyers. So I’m gonna go with ~3,200 for the month. That would be between 700 and 800 / week for most of the month.

Hopefully this week and next week they can improve upon that! But either way, the Model 3 continues it’s ascent upwards, leaving all other contenders behind. 🙂

It is hard to know what the real production rate of the Model 3 is because unlike other car manufactures who release month production and sales numbers, Tesla releases its numbers once a quarter.

Because I think Bloomberg is off by about 50-75 on production rate, I think by the end of the month Tesla’s true production rate is between 950 and 1050. I say true production rate because we know how Tesla like to use words salad when talking about things and how it used the term extrapolate to say production rate “extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3’s per week.”

For deliveries I am going to say between 2800-3200. Do not forget that they had a some problems in February where for a few days they produced no cars. So I cannot imagine too many cars were in transit between February and March.

Tesla registered ~4500 VINs in mid-December, too. Then they didn’t register at for quite a while. They’re just doing another “all hands on deck” end of quarter sprint and want to make sure they don’t run out. Musk will surely claim some ~2000/week extrapolated number, but sustained output will be less than half that.

“the automaker has yet to prove big delivery numbers with the new car.”

Except of course being the best selling EV in the United States so far in 2018 by a 20% margin over the nearest competitor… So there is that.

Yea, yea, I know. Different standards for the Model 3.

The Model 3 deliveries have been amazing compared to any other EV ever really. This is very true. Tesla has paved the way. Standards are not different, though. The automaker hasn’t proven the big delivery numbers that were promised and has been riddled with setbacks. We reported the same issue when Nissan USA couldn’t get its act together for months and months with the LEAF and still hasn’t. Sales are sales though and the Model 3 has surely impressed. It’s just sad to see that people will be waiting years when the automaker painted a very different picture.

Just one interesting stat on Tesla: In 9 years on the market, it has never been the global best selling PEV brand.

And for the look of things, it won’t be in 2018. Or anytime soon.

Very true, indeed.

Yes, but previously they were not a mass market manufacturer. Now with the Model 3 they will be. Plus numbers are just one component of who is the true leader in evs, which is Tesla. One Model S equals around 3 Leafs.
So what is the quantification of anytime soon. 1 year, two, three?

Kimmi — are you trying to shame Tesla for NOT growing fast enough???? Seriously? Frankly, at Tesla’s price point for the Model S and X compared to every other car company, those other EV makers should be building 10X to 20X more units than Tesla. That is the kind of ratios between ICE car sales for similar price gaps. They aren’t. The old school ICE car companies have all the experience building cars and decades of EV research that should have given them such a massive lead that there should have never been a chance for a small company like Tesla to even dip a toe in the car market. They squandered those decades of research and fell asleep at the wheel while driving sub-100 mile range EV’s. All while lobbying against the same laws that would greatly increase their own EV sales. But you have a nifty little strawman you’ve built to knock down. Somehow you believe that it somehow reflects badly upon Tesla, if as a startup they don’t sell more EV’s at a much higher price point after 9 years, than huge decades old ICE car companies with every advantage imaginable sell cheap EV’s. That is quite… Read more »
“Standards are not different, though. The automaker hasn’t proven the big delivery numbers that were promised” Actually, we’re still waiting for GM to hit their original Volt production numbers. Same for the Leaf. But there very much is a different standard, since we don’t hear endless talk about that, despite those companies NEVER hitting their projected sales numbers over the long term. Meanwhile Tesla over the long term has absolutely CRUSHED original Model S delivery numbers they talked about. Yet the repeated meme by you and others is to focus exclusively on delivering behind schedule, while rarely (if ever) mentioning that over the long term Tesla has blown away any sales expectations that they (or anyone else) ever set for the Model S. Fail to ever hit original sales targets, and the press doesn’t even bother to even ask those car companies about targets ever again. Heck, or even hold those car companies feet to the fire to even state target numbers for the majority of their EV’s ever again. Be late on sales, but then crush sales numbers over the long term, and the meme that is consistently repeated is still that the company doesn’t meet sales targets. As… Read more »