UPDATE – Tesla Model 3 VIN Registrations Hit New Record

Tesla Model 3


It turns out that VIN tracking for the Tesla Model 3 has been pretty successful in determining production.

Last week, Tesla hit a production rate of 2,000 Model 3s per week. CEO Elon Musk suggested that it “may” happen, but then, Tesla pulled it off. Tom Randall, one of the developers of Bloomberg’s Model 3 tracker (which is almost entirely based on VINs) recently tweeted that the formula has been very successful.

***UPDATE – Tesla just registered nearly 3,000 more Model 3 VINs

Check This Out: Decoding Tesla Model 3 VIN

Now, Tesla just registered another 4,793 Model 3 VINs with the NHTSA. Hopefully, this means that the higher production rate is here to stay.

So, despite the fact that VINs have never been a credible or reliable way to track vehicle production, it appears as though it’s working out pretty well for all of us. As far as deliveries are concerned, Tesla delivered more EVs in Q1 2018 than any other automaker ever. In fact, the company beat its huge 2017 Q4 number, and we all know that Q4 is historically the best quarter for vehicle sales (especially EVs).

Additionally, the Tesla Model 3 claimed the best month of all time for any EV, moving 3,820 copies.

@Model3VINs on Twitter keeps track of all Tesla’s VIN registrations for the popular, all-electric sedan. This latest group of VINs is the automaker’s largest thus far.


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2. Tesla Model 3
Range: 310 miles; 136/123 mpg-e. Still maintaining a long waiting list as production ramps up slowly, the new compact Tesla Model 3 sedan is a smaller and cheaper, but no less stylish, alternative, to the fledgling automaker’s popular Model S. This estimate is for a Model 3 with the “optional” (at $9,000) long-range battery, which is as of this writing still the only configuration available. The standard battery, which is expected to become available later in 2018, is estimated to run for 220 miles on a charge. Tesla Model 3 charge port (U.S.) Tesla Model 3 front seats Tesla Model 3 at Atascadero, CA Supercharging station (via Mark F!) Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 The Tesla Model 3 is not hiding anymore! Tesla Model 3 (Image Credit: Tom Moloughney/InsideEVs) Tesla Model 3 Inside the Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 rear seats Tesla Model 3 Road Trip arrives in Tallahassee Tesla Model 3 charges in Tallahassee, trunk open.

Source: Model3VINs via Electrek

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21 Comments on "UPDATE – Tesla Model 3 VIN Registrations Hit New Record"

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And now they have registered another 2915 VIN. Have hard to believe they are mush over 2000 per week yet so they probably have VINs for some weeks now.


Looking at the IEVs sales tracker, it appears Tesla has sold just shy of 180k units (including Roadster) in the US now. With Model 3 production ramping up nicely now, it will be difficult for Tesla to push 200k into Q3. Not impossible, but difficult. They will need to deliver very few S & X in the US in Q2, focusing instead on European and Asian deliveries of those models. And they will need to push a lot of Model 3s to Canada and Europe as well. We shall see.

Per “And they will need to push a lot of Model 3s to Canada and Europe as well. We shall see.”, or Canada, & Mexico! Both closer than Europe, and no Ship Required!

Canadians by and large will be waiting for AWD and the short range model 3. Some will be interested in the current version, but even the most die hard Tesla fans like Fred from Electrek are deferring.

And electric vehicles sell a few hundred per year in Mexico, only in a few major cities. Neither Canada nor Mexico is likely to be enough.

Tesla needs to focus on selling as many as they possibly can. 🙂

Only European deliveries would be enough to offset production. But unless they announce something in the next few weeks, we can assume European deliveries aren’t being pushed up.

They could of course do something they haven’t done before – produce for inventory, and thereby postponing the 200k limit one quarter….

And it would help to ship a lot of vehicles to china before the new import tariff increase there also. Also, there is still a delivery backlog for Model S/X in Europe, and lot’s of Europeans would happily take delivery of Model 3’s as well 😉

….so Tesla *can* postpone passing the 200k limit till Q3 if they really want! And, if I remember a previous Musk statement correctly, they actually might be planning to do just that!

I have never been able to figure out how many of the 2500 Roadsters were sold in the US before the January 1st 2010 start of the count for the Federal Tax Credit, or more importantly, how many were delivered after the start of the credit.
Roadster deliveries started in February 2008 and production ended in January of 2012 when Tesla got the last Lotus glider. I have no idea how many credits Tesla used via US sales of the Roadster.

Plus, just 1 week of Model 3 Production, which is yet all US delivery bound, is quite possibly More than all 4 years of Roadster Production, for American buyers only!

When were the 3’s going to shipped to Canada or Europe? I am still hoping that Tesla can both grow the 3 deliveries and remain under the 200k in the Q2. That will take early shipments of the 3 to Canada and maybe to Europe and it would require shifting some S and X shipments to Europe in May and June. Not sure if it will be done, but I do know that having an additional 3 months of unlimited federal tax credits is something Tesla won’t ignore if they can do something about it without sacrificing too much short term profit.

Sorry – but no chance they hold back US sales so they cross the 200k in Q3. They REALLY need the cashflow. If they are getting closer to the 2500 / week of the Model 3 — they will likely ship out upwards of 8000 3’s in April alone — add another few thousand S & X’s and there is no way they are below 10k units in April — therefore May is when they cross the 200k…..no way they don’t take in all of those sales…..

They need the money, but Canadian dollars convert to US dollars very easily. And given the quarterly ups and downs of Tesla US deliveries, next month is going to be an off month for the S and X.
The game is in play, and I don’t doubt that Tesla will push more cars to Canada and other countries outside the US, even though it means they will get paid a month later in some cases.
3 additional months of unlimited tax credits for the 3 at full speed production (and the S and X) is worth a small sacrifice in May and June.
It all comes down to how many S and X get delivered in April. If they break their trend and deliver a lot, then the 200k’th car will arrive in June. If they stay on trend and S and X numbers are as light as normal, then they will probably be planning to push sales abroad to gain the extra quarter of full credits.

As there is now a Longer delay between Ordering a Model S or a Model X also, is that in All Tesla Markets, or just USA?

Leafowner is correct. There isn’t any realistic way for Tesla to delay crossing the 200,00 threshold until Q3. To do so would require Tesla to voluntarily, and substantially, reduce its own sales. Canada doesn’t have enough demand to affect the total that much, and it’s laughable to even talk about Mexico, which has only one Tesla store!

As has been pointed out, Tesla’s European “final assembly” plant isn’t set up for Model 3’s, so that’s not an option.

There simply isn’t any reasonable doubt that Tesla is going to pass the 200,000 U.S. sales milestone in this quarter, in Q2 2018. But remember, the full $7500 tax credit will remain in effect until two quarters after the end of the quarter in which that happens, so all Tesla sales in the U.S. through the end of 2018 will be eligible for the full tax credit. Half credit will start Jan. 1, 2019.

No, the tax credit runs til the end of the quarter in which 200k is reached and the quarter after. If Tesla reaches 200k before July 1, then the $7,500 tax credit expires end of September, 2018.

Tesla isn’t going to sell many S or X in the US in April and not many more in June. As 3 deliveries rise they are going to be the number that pushes Tesla over 200k in Q2, if they do exceed that number. Starting 3 deliveries early in Canada would help make a huge difference. Starting 3 assembly in Europe a month or two early would make a big difference as well. But the thing to remember is that if Tesla delivers #200k on June 20th, they lose the full credit on October 1st, 2018. If they deliver #200k on July 1st, they get the full credit through January 1st, 2019. AND, they get as many credits as they can sell cars. I don’t know when Tesla will have the 3 ramp up at full speed production. But it won’t happen soon enough if they stop getting the full credit in October. They can sell a LOT of 3’s between October 1st 2018 and January 1st of 2019. I think the chances of them delaying the arrival of #200k are marginal, but I hope they find a way to do it profitably. They have around 22,000 deliveries left in… Read more »

Couldn’t Tesla just register 1 Mio VINs so as to give no hints to production rate any more? Or is there a cost, or an expiration date attached that prevents Tesla from doing so?

VINs include a year, so that would mean a lot of “wasted” VINs although that doesn’t really matter.

“Most EVs than any automaker ever…”

Once again, that’s only in the US, not globally. The self-centeredness in the American use of terms like this can drive one off the walls.

Unless you’ve examined the output of the leading Chinese EV makers (including buses and taxis) and found that none had ever beat that number in a quarter? I doubt that you did.

If it wasn’t for InsideEVs and Electrek, I certainly wouldn’t know this truth, so I blame American-focused media on the bias. However, Renault-Nissan is definitely hitting the big numbers.

What does interest me is why Tesla is not registering once a month or even once a quarter, except at the tail end of the year, perhaps. If it is automated, perhaps none of it matters, but if it is a paper or human process, why not at least round up to the nearest 200?

I was thinking exactly the same.

This week’s media storm and stock performance have been a complete paradox.

And Elon is Pushing to get ‘Outside that Paradox!’ 😀