Tesla Model 3 VIN # 2639 Registered With NHTSA

2 weeks ago by Steven Loveday 20

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3 – shown here being accessed remotely via mobile app

Tesla is on the fast track in terms of getting more and more Model 3 VINs at least registered. Let’s hope it’s also on the same fast track with production.

It was only a week ago that we reported Tesla had registered a slew of Model 3 VINs with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). In fact, it was about 1,000 additional VINs, taking the automaker up to VIN # 2136. Perhaps Tesla had worked out its production bottleneck issues and was getting ahead of the curve? We learned quickly that that wasn’t really the case.

Tesla Model 3

Blue Tesla Model 3

When we reported about the new registrations, the automaker still seemed to be right in the thick of those issues. Now, we have news that Tesla has figured out some of the problems and is moving forward. Added to this, the automaker has just registered another ~500 Model 3s, increasing the latest VIN to # 2639. If production was still at nearly a standstill, one would think that the 1,000 VINs from last week would suffice, so 500 more in a matter of days is intriguing.

Tesla will speak to its Q3 earnings tomorrow and provide additional updates. This may give us a better idea of where everything stands since it’s hard to know exactly what the issues are.

First, it was reported that Tesla was potentially building Model 3s by hand (which was later disproven). Next, the automaker reminded us that the vehicle’s production line is still moving incredibly slow. Finally,reports pointed to supplier issues and also CEO Elon Musk spent the night of the Gigafactory roof, citing:

“Production hell, ~8th circle.”

Recently, it was reported that Tesla has actually decreased certain forward-looking supply orders by 40 percent, so the company is clearly indicating things will not be operating as normal/originally planned in the near-term. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to understand what’s really happening at this point. Let’s hope we learn more in the coming days.

Source: Teslarati

Tags: , , , , , ,

20 responses to "Tesla Model 3 VIN # 2639 Registered With NHTSA"

  1. God/Bacardi says:

    Words/phases are very subjective…”was potentially building Model 3s by hand (which was later disproven).”

    While the vehicles stay on the assembly line, the “by hand” could simply mean a robot was suppose to attach a fender but that current a human is performing the task…

    1. Murrysville EV says:

      Exactly. It was never disproven that handwork wasn’t involved at certain stages of the build process. There almost certainly is.

      Obviously, most of the work is automated, but it only takes one station to falter for everything to slow dramatically.

    2. Viking79 says:

      I think “built by hand” meant that steps that would usually be completed by robot, were still being done by hand. This was not disproven, and actually just confirmed as they are hand finishing battery packs.

      I wouldn’t be surprised if there are still more of these kinks before production ramps dramatically.

      1. Nix says:

        Replacing workers with automation is a continuous process. All car makers have steps that are done by hand, the same with most manufacturing companies.

        All manufacturing is constantly in the process of automating processes done by hand.

        That doesn’t mean that the majority of products manufactured around the world are “hand built”.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Right. All mass produced cars have some assembly steps performed by hand.

          Calling the Model 3 “hand assembled” or “hand built” wasn’t merely an exaggeration; it was simply wrong. It was nothing but FUD.

  2. Four Electrics says:

    Registering VINs is easy, and useful to hide the true number of cars made. It’s the same reason why Tesla switched to intentionally obfuscating reservation numbers: to prevent accurate count.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Buried in 4E’s FUD, there is likely a certain amount of truth, altho as always, he puts a negative spin on it.

      Tesla had to stop reporting its production numbers because the way it handles batch processing causes disproportionate numbers in some quarters, and Tesla haters / stock shorters / FUDsters were using the numbers to misrepresent Tesla’s progress: “OMG! Tesla’s production/deliveries are down for three quarters in a row! Set your hair on fire!”

      As Jay Cole puts it every month in InsideEVs’ Monthly Sales Scorecard:

      Tesla does not give out exact monthly sales (apparently because the public can’t handle the concept of regional allocations and delivery lead times)… so we never know for sure what the monthly numbers total up to until Tesla’s quarterly (or annual) updates add more clarity…

      There were people over on the Tesla Motors Club forum who were obsessively tracking VIN numbers on Tesla cars, and of course the Tesla haters / stock shorters / FUDsters were able to get that info from the forum. Sadly, it was likely only a matter of time before Tesla started obscuring those numbers, too.

      The Tesla haters certainly do keep ruining things for the rest of us, don’t they?
      🙁 🙁 🙁

      1. Bruce Sanders says:

        An interesting story on the Model X production ramp up can be found at GMI right now: http://www.gminsidenews.com/forums/f12/look-back-what-went-wrong-tesla-model-x-production-ramp-up-280098/

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          What I found most revealing about the Model X delays was InsideEV’s own Jay Cole reporting — unfortunately in a comment, not an article — that Tesla hadn’t even gotten around to soliciting designs and bids from vendors for the falcon wing door actuators until just a few months before the car was supposed to enter production. According to Jay, that was far less lead time than was normal for the industry, especially for a complicated and critical new assembly like that.

          Yeah, no wonder Tesla had delays caused by the FW doors, and problems with them in early production!

          IMHO all these are unforced errors. More established auto makers put their new models through (if I understand the process correctly) four iterations of pre-production or “production validation” stages. Tesla (again, if I understand correctly) skips two of those stages, jumping directly to selling cars as soon as they start rolling off the assembly line.

          I understand that for a disruptive “young Turk” company like Tesla, a fast-growing company in a growth market, there is an advantage to be gained in taking risks in order to grow faster. What I do not understand is why Tesla is not more cautious about its public guidance; why it doesn’t give itself slack to allow for the almost mathematically certain delays that result from skipping validation stages.

          I do understand that Tesla setting aggressive goals for internal targets, and for delivery dates for vendors, helps accelerate the entire manufacturing progress. But why does Tesla make what should be internal goals so public? Sure, they would almost inevitably be leaked, but then Tesla could truthfully and accurately say “Well, those goals were aspirational rather than practical, and that’s why we didn’t announce them publicly.”

          As it is, Tesla keeps winding up with egg all over its corporate face every time it has a significant production delay, to the point that it has come to be seen as expected from Tesla. 🙁

          1. Bruce Sanders says:

            Nice write-up.

            Assume current state of Tesla public relations and the promises made, is driven by the need to appease Wall Street, and protect their necessary sourcing of working capital.

  3. Nix says:

    I have a suspicion that the large number of VIN’s include a significant number of substantially completed cars that are waiting for a critical part or two before they can be delivered.

    So I don’t expect the VIN numbers to translate into deliveries unless/until whatever final parts are ready. Then there will likely be a rush of cars delivered as mostly complete cars are completely finished.

    1. Alex says:

      This is what I think as well. It’s an indicator that a reasonable amount of cars are at least some way towards completion. I would be surprised if they deliver more than 6000 total by the end of the year but that wouldn’t be the end of the world. Getting to parity with model S/X would be a good initial achievement and I think they make around 1000 a week of each off a shared assembly line.

    2. pjwood1 says:

      +1 makes me wonder ground rules for reporting production, if delivery ultimately waits for parts?

  4. ffbj says:

    It’s interesting that Musk chose the 8th circle where sinners have a food fight after the food has passed through.
    I equate that to laying blame on each other. Not sure if that is the case but it seems probable.

  5. Mister G says:

    GO TESLA GO DESTROY DIRTY GAS GUZZLERS

  6. ffbj says:

    Well the market seems to think that the worst is over if today’s action is any indication, as TSlA has been taking a drubbing lately with all the talk of production hell.

    Short Squeeze time.

  7. Tom says:

    It looks like GM can look forward to a solid Q4 with the Bolt as they got handed an open field to run. GM will figure out SOME WAY to screw it up I suppose. Tesla needs to get this sorted out by January or the spam will hit the fan on my fronts. Cash flow, lost market share, and devalued stock.

    1. Will says:

      Wait till tomorrow, worst quarter ever

      1. Nix says:

        Results will be mixed. They will have the best Q3 year-to-date sales numbers ever by a significant margin. And they will have the ramp-up costs of the Model 3 without Model 3 sales. Which is to be expected as the normal and regular cost of massively ramping up their business. Income from ramp up always comes in the quarters after ramp up. That’s how manufacturing works.

        Meanwhile, TSLA stocks are still up $150 over where they were in Dec 2016.

  8. Bonaire says:

    My estimate for Model 3 deliveries for the entire 2017 year was 16,000 back in February, 2017. I later changed it to 6,000. Not sure yet but it could end up being either number for the year.

Leave a Reply