Will The Tesla Model 3 Be On Schedule? Perhaps Ahead Of Schedule?


Tesla Model 3


As Tesla is scheduled to report its fourth quarter earnings next week, all eyes (and ears) will be on the Model 3. Marketwatch* reports that, “Wall Street will be eager to hear details on the Tesla Model 3, the all-electric mass-market car that Chief Executive Elon Musk hopes to start producing in July and selling later this year.” Ben Kallo, an analyst with Baird, who had picked Tesla as his top stock for 2017 agrees: “That’s where all eyes are now.”

*This article comes to us courtesy of Evannex (which also makes aftermarket Tesla accessories). Authored by Matt Pressman.

It’s reported that, “The Silicon Valley electric-car maker has promised to ramp up production to a rate of half a million vehicles in 2018, an ambitious goal that largely hinges on success of the Model 3. Hopes for the Model 3 and any updates on the car’s production schedule are partly the reason Tesla stock has been on a tear… Tesla is readying test Model 3 sedans ahead of the earnings report, according to a report earlier this month that cited anonymous sources. Wall Street is hoping to catch a glimpse of the test cars or at the very least hear more from Musk on the production schedule.”

The biggest question for the Tesla Model 3 is “when, not if” at this point, Baird’s Kallo said. He added:

“Tesla will make the car and if they are a quarter late, I don’t think it’d matter.” Bill Selesky, an analyst with Argus Research, said he’ll be looking for production-cost estimates for the Model 3. “Everything seems to be going according to plan” regarding the Model 3, but analysts will still want to hear more details about ramp-up expenses, he said.

Tesla Model 3, Announced From $35,000 And “At Least” 215 Miles Of Range

One hint might come from Tesla’s efforts that publicly promote the Model 3. They’ve been relatively mum on the Model 3. However, Model 3 promotional videos have been popping up in Europe and Canada.

That said, there hasn’t been much video footage teasing the Model 3 in U.S. stores — that is, until now.

On Instagram, @ty02ryan posted a glimpse of the Model 3 and Tesla’s Gigafactory. The post appears to be video footage taken in the Third Street Promenade’s Tesla store in Santa Monica, CA. Another encouraging observation: the video claims a 35% reduction in battery costs. That’s higher than the usual 30% that’s quoted on Tesla’s website and by senior management. Check it out below…

Above: Video footage from the Third Street Promenade’s Tesla store in Santa Monica, CA (Source: @ty02ryan / Instagram); note: the youtube video shown above has been reformatted

Elon Musk has said, “When somebody comes into our store to buy a Model 3, we say well why don’t you buy a Model S or an X instead? So we anti-sell the 3.” Is Tesla beginning to actively market the Model 3 at their store locations? Could the inclusion of this video in a U.S. store mean the Model 3 could be tracking on-schedule? Hard to say. In any event, customers may be more forgiving on Tesla’s timeframe than most expect. Learn Bonds writes that, “Model 3 buyers don’t care about delays.” They quote a reader (and Model 3 reservation holder) who explains, “Tesla is the only auto company dedicated to help save the planet and [media frets being late] a month here or there. I am a reservation holder and Tesla can take all the time it wants to get it right.”

*Source: Marketwatch

*Editor’s Note: EVANNEX, which also sells aftermarket gear for Teslas, has kindly allowed us to share some of its content with our readers. Our thanks go out to EVANNEX, Check out the site here.

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136 Comments on "Will The Tesla Model 3 Be On Schedule? Perhaps Ahead Of Schedule?"

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If they can sell 50,000 of this in any year in US alone, it will be a miracle.

Dude, your comment makes no sense.

I’m sure it would do miracles on your Tesla shorting investment portfolio. Like making most of its value magically disappear.

If you can calibrate the words of the Great prophet to what really happened in the past, you will see that 50,000 in a year in US is very generous. Here are couple of examples:
1. Mr. Musk says he will sell 10,000 cars annually in Germany by 2015. 2015 actual = 1582. Heck, 2016 is over and it was 1904.
2. In 2014, Mr. Musk says China will be as big as U.S. Today, after 3 years, it has captured a whopping 0.5% of China luxury car sales. Last year, it sold ~9000 cars in a 25M car market.

2012 Mr Musk says eventually Tesla will sell 20k Model S per year globally. TSLA bears laugh.

2016 Tesla sells more than 50k Model S per year for 2nd year in a row.

Typically, BMW sells 10x 3 Series as it does 7 Series.

In 2016 Tesla sold over 29k Model S in the USA. Fully ramped up this tells us Tesla should sell ~300k units per year in the USA.

Rob, you’re making sense again! Haven’t you been told NOT to do this in the presence of the great ValueSeeker!

400,000 people line up to put $1,000 down on a car that won’t be available for 2+ years and you’re suggesting Tesla can’t sell 50K Model 3s in the USA. LMAO.
Sell you’re TSLA short position and find another company. You’re going to lose money. Get out now while you can.

Undoubtedly Mr. Elon Musk has a high IQ but lacks EQ. I’m fed up with all this BS and people still believing this after many fails in production atempts year after year. Come on! If you know the logistics in the manfacturing world, you’d know what Musk is intended for is not possible in any way or form especially if you have first hand experience in the understand of managing ERP database and the cycle. A lot of my employees whom I’ve managed in the warehouse have quit and headed off to Telsa all excited and then came back in less than 60 days. They tell their stories about how unorganize and how untrained workers are not knowing the fundamentals of how are ERP system is suppose and confused about the barely minimum of parts manfacturing. They have a lot quality control problem that do not pass their tolerance control properties at there final stages of the car production. Musk might want to head back to school and take ECON101. The most basic principal is economics and starting a successfully business it implementing a product that has scability and price point which Telsa does not have. It will never survive,… Read more »

This is growing pains, nothing more. Good thing Tesla hired Audi executive Peter Hochholdinger as VP of auto production. This happened in May 2016. I’m sure he brings the necessary skill set to ensure a good result in Model 3 production.

Much was learned during the nightmare that was Project X. The pain everyone at Tesla experienced: from designers, engineers, suppliers, to floor production– remains fresh in their minds. Staff was changed along with a new philosophy of, “Make this model easy to build, from the foundation up.” The fancy crap that takes ages to noodle and perfect, will come later.

Happily, Model 3 won’t become another another Model X Launch. The first betas with most supplier parts, should begin production tomorrow. So, it will likely be very much 3rd party issues, that keep it from being on time, or in quantities needed to meet initial demand, like SHW.

Audi is renown for their horrible electronics so hiring the guy to head up making a car that is completely electronics doesn’t comfort me.

Well, it’s a good thing his job is to manage the assembly of the vehicle, not design and manufacturing of electronics.

Learn to speak [type] English and maybe we can take your comment seriously……

Eric posted absurd and off-topic FUD:

“…he’s planning on building underground tunnels in Los Angeles”

Apparently the anti-Tesla FUDster trolls have come up with yet another conspiracy theory, mischaracterizing Elon’s “Hyperloop” concept as “building tunnels”, when the plan quite clearly calls for constructing a tube system on elevated pylons to avoid the huge expense and problems with right-of-way that digging and filling very long tunnels would involve.

But what makes this latest bit of anti-Tesla (or more precisely, anti-Elon Musk) FUD so ridiculous and entirely pointless is that Elon Musk has given away his Hyperloop concept for others to develop. He has quite clearly said he doesn’t have the time to pursue it himself.

But then, reality and facts never stop the FUDsters from repeating lies, now do they? Trolls gotta do what trolls gotta do!

No, he’s actually making tunnels, and they don’t seem to be (directly) related to hyperloop. It could be a ruse to that effect, but, if it is, he’s not letting on yet.


Ooooh kaaaay then! Thank you for the link, Tom; that was certainly news to me, and more than a bit of a surprise!

And I will apologize to Eric for accusing him of making an off-topic remark… but his post was still anti-Tesla FUD, and a very “generous” helping of it.

Push, the tunneling challenge is a new one for Musk, but if he could provide the leadership for this effort, it could really transform cities. Right now tunneling is so expensive that it makes it the last option for building new roads into crowded cities. Musk is talking about cutting the cost per foot by 80-90%.

If he could reduce the cost by half it would be huge. Just a few tunnels past choke points could really transform the commute from Loudon County into DC for instance. A tunnel starting a half mile west of the Key Bridge that went under the Potomac, split in 3 and served Georgetown, M St. and Constitution Avenue would be very useful in speeding up I-66 commutes. I would bet that there are dozens of such sites around the US where a relatively short (1-2 mile tunnel) would make a huge difference.

I wish there was a way I could bet you money on this. Jealousy makes people say and think some pretty outlandish things but for the sake of this article you’re just being a troll to get a response. Keep running your warehouse and let Musk handle the important things like space transportation and renewable energy.

+ Eric

Are you aware that your almost total lack of command of English renders your opinions worthless?
“in the understand of”
“how unorganize and how untrained workers are not knowing the fundamentals of how are ERP system is suppose and confused about the barely minimum of parts manfacturing”
“They have a lot quality control problem that do not pass their tolerance control properties at there final stages of the car production.”
“Musk might want to head back to school and take ECON101”– YOU might do likewise to learn basic English– or, at least learn to use Spell Checker.

Apologies if English is not your first language.
Otherwise I find some truth in your comments.

Interesting that you, maybe a middle manager, seriously thinks Musk needs basic schooling. That kind of puts you in a strange position.

You have interesting comments, especially if you can back the claim that Tesla is loosing employees continuously in logistics.

“Elon Musk has said, “When somebody comes into our store to buy a Model 3, we say well why don’t you buy a Model S or an X instead? So we anti-sell the 3.” ”

LOL, Funny! Instead of saying he sells them a Model S/X to meet the delivery goals, he FOCUSES on the anti-sell part. What a novel idea to sell a higher priced car to someone looking for a cheaper car. Those ossified dealers will never learn such great sales tricks.

Anti-selling sounds like a selling technique known as bait and switch. Hmmm. . . What’s old is what’s new again.

“Definition of bait and switch”

“1 : a sales tactic in which a customer is attracted by the advertisement of a low-priced item but is then encouraged to buy a higher-priced one”


Wrong. Under the law there must be intent to defraud the public. So since you are telling people to do this as a policy and why it’s completely legal.

Tesla is certainly on the borderline there. They are getting a free pass on everything for being the new kid in the block.

“If the seller does not intend to sell you the “bait,” and does any of the following in the course of selling other merchandise, then it’s probably the “bait and switch”:
* Disparages the bait or its warranty, credit terms, availability of service, repairs or parts.
* Employs compensation methods that discourage or penalize sales people for selling the bait.
* Refuses to take orders for the bait.
* Refuses to make delivery of the bait within a reasonable time period.
* * Shows you a broken or defective product.
* Fails to meet anticipated demand for the bait without disclosing the bait’s limited availability in the ad.

That was actually useful. It just shows that this tactic, which has been used repeatedly by car dealers, is well known and has many possible avenues with which to hoodwink customers.

illegal “bait and switch” behavior requires that you have to establish some form of fraud (meaning either common law fraud or statutory consumer fraud). i use the qualifier “illegal” here to distinguish between upselling, which is a pretty standard technique, where you are given information about upgraded products but you still have the choice of buying the basic product.

based on the elements that you have listed, it would be hard to establish that tesla has done either. be aware that tesla has not offered the model 3 for sale yet. so no reasonable person should walk into a tesla store with the expectation of walking out with a model 3.

Also pretty sure the second product has to exist.

what counts is the representations made by the seller. if the seller represents the existence of a product that doesn’t actually exist, it would probably make it pretty easy to establish that the seller had engaged in fraud.

Also pretty sure the “bait” has to actually be “advertised” as was mentioned above. Since the Model 3 had never been advertised there is no problem.

Tesla does not currently offer the Model 3 for sale, and Tesla is very clear about that. The ONLY thing they offer is a Reservation. The sale doesn’t happen until there is a Purchase Agreement:

“While this Reservation secures the approximate delivery priority within your region, it does not constitute the purchase or order of a vehicle… When the start of production for your Reservation nears, we will ask you to configure your Model 3. Tesla will create an order for your vehicle and you will receive a Purchase Agreement”


Tesla by definition cannot be doing a “bait and switch”, because there is no bait for there to be a switch. Tesla does not currently offer the Model 3 for purchase to anybody at any price.

Making a false accusation of a criminal act is an unlawful libel and defamation of the company. Which coming from somebody shorting TSLA stocks, would be an SEC violation. Tread lightly…..

Don’t be ridiculous. I said “borderline”. Go ahead, file a SEC complaint or whatever.
If the Model 3 can’t be sold, then please explain the phrase “anti sell” from Mr. Musk in the quoted text.

Which is why I warned you to “tread lightly” instead of posting “I’m legally obligated to forward this matter to the SEC”.

Are you seriously going to willfully continue pursuing this accusation? Because by the sounds of your post, it appears that even when given fair warning, that you are going to take this from a case of off-hand ignorance, into a willful overt act.

Like I said, tread lightly….

Sometimes you’re funny, sometimes you’re just wrong…

I suspect the shorts and trolls must just be mentally ill at this point… *shrugs*

It’s a gigafactory ad, not a Model 3 ad.

And since you can’t buy a Gigafactory it could either be a feel-good ad (image ad) or it could be part of Tesla’s efforts to pump their stock ahead of any kind of additional capital raising. They do realize their car customers are often stockholders too.

Indeed. And it’s pretty obvious, at least to me, that the “Tesla Model 3 at the Gigafactory” and “Tesla Model 3 in black” pictures are renders, not photographs. Not sure about the Tesla “Model 3 in black” pic; that might be a real photo, or an exceptionally good render. But as every loyal InsideEVs reader knows, cars always look better when they’re black! 😉 Tesla’s hype seems to be reaching a fever pitch leading up to next week’s quarterly report. The Model 3 might go into production early? How could that even be physically possible, since they’ve given their suppliers a target date of July 1 for delivery of the first batch of production parts? That would require that Tesla secretly contact every one of them and move the date up… on top of already moving it up to the point that many of them are already straining to meet the deadline! It also would require that not a single one of them spill the beans. This scenario is so ridiculous that it wouldn’t fly if you strapped it onto a rocket. It’s painfully obvious that it’s just hype, and apparently intended to pump up Tesla’s stock price, which just… Read more »

Don’t forget that Tesla ordered parts for 300 Model 3s back in Aug 1 2016.

Tesla will probably manufacture a run of beta / pre-production Model 3s. I assume that’s what we’ll see / hear about Very soon.

Yes. It’s been reported, or at least rumored, that Tesla will put production prototypes aka “beta unit” Model 3’s into production starting Feb. 20.

Hey… that’s today!
🙂 🙂 🙂

But not to be confused with the actual start of Model 3 production.


Maybe they’ll get a half a dozen or more cars delivered before December 31st this year of course they’ll go to Elon himself and maybe a few hand-picked multi-million / billionaire investors.

Nope, no signature version this time.

Reservation did open early to employees since it is a mass market car they can afford and are to be rewarded for making tesla happen.

Then next it opened to people willing to stand in line, and then it opened to the general public through online orders.

California residents close to the factory are to be prioritized too since it is close to the factory for doing early fixes.

I am in the last group within the first 100,000 reservations and in calidornia so hoping for end of this year.

There is a signature version this time. It is called “fully loaded”. Or are you suggesting that I will be able to get a base model in the beginning?? LOL

Still not a signature version, your fully loaded version will be exactly the same as the guy who buys the 100,000th one. No specialness just for you sorry!

a) A $35k car is not mass market for Tesla factory workers paid $17-$21 an hour. They won’t get the $7500 tax credit.
b) People waiting in line will come after the current Model S owners. Anyone else sees a trick to encourage more Model S sales in this?

Yea your right 🙁 i wont.

I don’t get how the whole reservation thing is going to work. I read that Tesla was only going to produce the heavily loaded cars first and for how long, who knows? So, if you’re say the 25th guy on the list, but you ordered a totally stripped $35,000 version, when do you get your car?

It seems like being faithful and quick to order is not being rewarded. If they delay production of the “cheap” cars too long, those buyers might miss out on the $7500 tax credit. The whole “sub $30,000” 200+ mile EV might not really happen for many Tesla buyers.

No one knows, and it doesn’t matter to the Teslemmings who waited in line. Most of them will try to flip it for a quick profit if they get it early.
These unfair practices are nothing new to Tesla. They have been sticking super expensive Model X lemons to their super rich shareholders for a year now. They don’t seem to care that the door doesn’t work half the time. Check Darryl’s story on teslamotorsclub.com or click my link. Car in servcie 147 days in the first year, and not a peep.

If the Model 3 also turns out to be Alphas and sold to Tesla employees, it will be double trouble. Tesla employees won’t be able to come to work while their cars jam the service centers. Chances of Model 3 being an alpha is very high, given the production schedule and absence of any prototype besides the first 3 cars seen 1 year ago, one of which is just a car with wooden chassis.

SAVE THEM DR, SAVE THEM! Their very happiness is in the balance! Plead, cajole, scold, even call them names if you must! They Must be prevented from purchasing these rattletraps at all cost!

Why the very….huh….your shorts are too tight?! What exactly does that mean?

His Blue Orbs are forcing him to FUD EV Blogs, in an attempt to affect Tesla’s stock at every opportunity?

Seems legit. 😉

There is a record $9 billion of short speculation going on against Tesla. Apparently these speculators lost well over $2 billion over the last 3 months so I’m sure those types could do without rumours like this;)

Well at least Elon Musk warned them for a Tsunami of hurt and remember guys: it’s only money.

And this is why Dr. FudSpreader, sven, tftf, and all the other shills and shorters here are getting desperate as they carpet-bomb their anti-Tesla FUD under multiple usernames.

Pretty pathetic that they delusionally hope they can influence the market and save their leeching short positions.

Meanwhile, every day that goes by and Tesla gets closer and closer through its rapidly developing Giga 1 and expansion of Fremont to absolute domination of the mid-high end BEV market which is on the verge of rapid growth with the Model 3.

And it works both ways. There are plenty here including the editorial staff doing their best to pump up Tesla in spite of real concerns. Doing what they can to inflate the stock.

So Dave8or, you are accusing the InsideEVs staff of deliberately “pumping” Tesla’s stock so they can personally benefit?

It is actually pretty sad that you think people post here solely in hopes of bringing down TSLA. I am surprised show even have a computer seeing as the govt and aliens clearly use it to spy on your every move.

Not as sad as your assertion that these self-admitted Tesla shorters are here posting for altruistic purposes!

The fact is, there is more complete BS in the financial speculation sector then any area of the economy and that is saying alot.

A whole lot of liars with a variety of motives posted incessantly on the internet to successfully help an insane conspiracy theorist into the White House to make America a pariah state. I guess they were selling America short.

DJ said:

“It is actually pretty sad that you think people post here solely in hopes of bringing down TSLA.”

Not nearly as sad as those who actually do spend their time posting lies here, over and over, in a pathetic and extremely anti-social attempt to manipulate Tesla stock price. People like you.

Those who have strong stomachs can see scores or sometimes hundreds of similar comments posted on Seeking Alpha every single day. Is it any coincidence that some of the same names and the very same FUD lies appear here, posted under names like “Dr ValueSeeker” and “tftf”?

Perhaps you think we’re naive enough to believe all that is just coincidence.

It’s speculation on my part for sure, so if you’re hoping I’m going to provide you with a link for proof, I won’t. On the other hand, this site frequently post every bit of puff and sizzle about Tesla that it can. I never casts doubt even though many others do elsewhere. The Tesla articles are posted pretty much by the same people. I find it easy to believe they likely own Tesla stock and want it to do well.

Just a speculative conclusion.

All this discussion about stocks is pretty funny. I don’t have stock, never had stock, probably never will have stock, so don’t care about the stock. I do agree there are regular people who post on this site, a lot of it is about stock for some reason. Personally, I’m interested in the EV’s and what people have to say about them. I don’t know the stock lingo, (what is shorting?) but one thing I would have thought is anyone buying stocks does it to make money, not sure what other reason there would be (maybe to support the company?), so if the stock price is going higher, isn’t that a good thing? If you bought the stock high priced and it is going down, that is a bad think? If you want to make money then you must be on the same idea, so everyone will want the stock to rise. If you don’t have any stock and you really want some, then I guess you want the stock to go down so you can buy it. Anyway, I hope you all can figure out what the stock is doing for you and you can make some money, but… Read more »

“Shorting” a stock means you don’t actually buy the stock. Instead, you pay to borrow it, as a way to bet on the price dropping. So while most stock investors hope to see their stock rise, and use a “buy low, sell high” strategy, stock “shorters” have the opposite strategy; hoping the stock will drop, and using a “buy high, sell low” strategy.

Or at least, they ought to. From the incessant anti-Tesla FUD they post at all times, especially when the stock price is near an all-time high as it is now, it certainly looks like Dr FUDseeker Dr Valueseeker and the other anti-Tesla trolls posting here actually bought in while Tesla’s stock price was climbing!

So you see, most of the ant-Tesla FUD posts here are just the stock shorters’ way of bemoaning how much money they’re losing on their bad investment.

I think insideevs has declared in the pastm that they don’t have TSLA stock. They are just an EV supporting site.
But electrek.co for sure has TSLA stock, publicly displays TSLA stock quote on their site, and writes a lot of pump pieces. Sometimes, I wonder if Electrek works in collaboration with Tesla. If someday this bubble pops, Electrek will be at least partly responsible.

As to the original comment here: Mr. Musk warned last year after the stock popped. People who shorted the pop made it like bandits, if they covered in the recent lows.

Dav8or, Dr ValueSeeker, Just to quickly speak on this, as a matter of our policy, no one working at InsideEVs has any position in TSLA or any other EV-related industry. We decided that was the best stance when it comes to responsible journalism and being objective. If a writer has a position in TSLA (or any other related stock to a particular story) we think it is very unlikely to be able to keep objectivity; or at the very least, it seriously wounds credibility. With that said, many of the stories we cover/pick-up are from other sources, and they could very well have an interest in TSLA…but we only choose to report on them/pass them along because we think they are of interest/valid. No posts at InsideEVs have ever been “sponsored”, and we have never accepted compensation of any kind to run a story, or cover a new product release/autoshow. The frequency of Tesla stories here is strictly related to how much news there is, and the demand of people to read them. The fact is: Tesla is the “whale” of the industry right now, as they have a vested interest in being “all in”, and as such they generate… Read more »

one thing that i will state is that at times it appears that the insideevs editors “rearrange” the order of postings, such that the first post isn’t always the chronologically oldest posting. it appears to me that some “editorial” decision making is going on with such reordering of postings but i don’t have any comment on the reasoning for such reordering. that said, “reordering” is not “deletion”, so one can’t call it censorship.

just putting it out there…

Yes, some comments from Jay Cole make it clear that the staff does sometimes move comments down from the top if they think they’re too distracting. I certainly wish they’d do the same here!

When the first comment in a comment/discussion thread is strongly negative, for example Dr ValueSeeker’s first FUD post here (and all of his other ones, too), then it tends to create a negative tone for any subsequent discussion. And I don’t mean just negative towards Tesla; I mean negative in terms of being anti-social in tone.

The intent of people who constantly post FUD on the Internet (on any subject, not just Tesla Inc.) isn’t merely to sabotage the public image of a company or a cause. It’s also a deliberate strategy to sabotage any useful or meaningful discussion of the subject. FUDsters hope to make the debate so poisonous that the conversation drives away neutral readers.

no comment, We always try to be as transparent, fair and up front about the way we operate. If you mean re-org’ing the stories themselves, occasionally an older story will be ‘moved up’ a slot or two ahead of others on the front page, but that generally is done as the system reports back on popularity. ie) if one story has had 10,000 readers over 7 hours and another story that is only 6 hours has only had ~1,000 then you could see them re-org’d, one in front of the other(but I think that is pretty rare) If you are talking about comments, if the “first” comment is wildly off-topic or appears to be posted only to incite a reaction (and has disturbed the discussion/side-tracked the thread in the first 30 mins or so), then, as you mentioned, we won’t delete/mod it (we are always hesitant to do that), but we occasionally will move it off the “#1” slot to say, the 3rd or 4th position…where it is still read by people, but I think lets readers have a smooth landing into the discussion, lol. Anywhoo, the goal is never to censor anything, its just to provide the best reading/discussion… Read more »

THAT’S why all my “First!” posts don’t stay at the top. 😀

Sorry, but your personal delusions and conspiracy narratives– are not facts.


Looks like this particular information isn’t correct. Tesla doesn’t have the largest short position nor does it have the highest short ratio.

Well, it’s not the #1 shorted stock today. That shouldn’t be a surprise, given that TSLA was recently on a sustained rise to an all-time high. Smart “short” investors buy when the stock price is dropping, not when it’s rising! (Does that mean I think all the Tesla FUDsters posting in this comment thread, or posting anti-Tesla FUD anytime within the past few weeks, are the opposite of smart in their “short” investments? You betcha it does.)

And altho I’m not an investor myself, I think from reading comments from others that it’s commonplace for TSLA stock to peak right before a quarterly report, and drop immediately after. So the smart “short” investors will — if my limited understanding is correct — likely be waiting until next week when Tesla issues its quarterly report before buying in.

It has been said that Tesla’s stock at times has the highest short “interest” of any stock. The very phrase “at times” indicates that this isn’t always the case. Sometimes it’s the most-shorted stock; other times, as you point out, Unlucky, it’s not.

Definitely most important for Tesla to get things right with Model 3.

All indicators appear as if it will arrive on schedule. and perhaps a tad early if everything goes perfectly.

Looking forward to more news this Wednesday.

$35,000 vehicle.

While no ‘signature vehicles’, they were going to produce only ‘loaded’ versions.

Since the ‘avg’ model 3 is to cost $42,000, that means these LOADED versions are pricier since LOADED means better than average.

My understanding is that if a deposit holder does not want the $45-50K vehicle (still cheaper than a stripped S or X), he will lose his place in line.

So the person satisfied with waiting in line for a $35,000 stripped 3 is going to be waiting a long time indeed.

The looks of the Model 3 are really starting to grate on me. What’s with the long hood? It’s just a waste of space.

Luckily, I don’t much care about looks.

Me it’s the other way around, at first I was a bit underwhelmed, it seemed like just a smaller model S with a funny nose. Now I really like the fluent design as functional (low drag) as well as beautiful. Goes to show that it’s all in the eye of the beholder…

aside from the weird front end (which i think can be improved without a massive redesign) and the dash board (which definitely doesn’t cut it), i generally like the exterior design of the model 3. the only element that obviously upsets the “flow” of the overall exterior design is the front end.

The front was weird to me at first, but now i’m used to it.

I agree, they need to make the interior much better than whatever was shown in the last reveal.

I am also the other way around….absolutely thrilled that there will finally be an EV under $50k that doesn’t have the proportions of a refrigerator.

Of course, I’m American and we love the 3 box design unlike Europeans. But also, when surrounded by trucks and SUVs in Texas, I want a good crumple zone.

The front end is used for Frunk and crumple zone

I think for months they have been giving the impression that it will be coming sooner than most people think. For there are contenders:

1. Right on time: End of July starting of real production with the goal of 20k/ about half of 50k/ for the first full year.
2. Late but not too late: End of October with 5k by years end.
3. Late: December making around 1k.
4. Very Late: Next year.

My take is that trying to get to a reasonable production number 1k a month or so, starting in the Fall. I don’t think they will be early.

I think this is the best teaser video. Here:

I notice that video carefully doesn’t show the interior at all. I suspect there are going to be big changes over the ridiculous iPad drive dashboard they showed off last year and said that that was what they were thinking of for production. I suspect there was some push back and better common sense involved.

On the other hand, it looks as though they are likely to stick with the disappointing trunk vs. hatchback. I could be wrong though.

Oh definitely there was some push-back on the interior, and I think you are right about both interior and the trunk. Soon like LZ said: All will be revealed:

Hope not. If #TinyTrunk stays, I’m rolling over my reservation for the Model Y.

No point getting a vehicle that would be less utilitarian than what I currently use.

I don’t think the boot will be a problem for many people. Looking around I see so many Mazda sedans, Holden Cruize, and many other sedans with a boot about the same as what you see in the Model 3 photos, obviously lots of people happy with that setup.

The instrument cluster is going to be the interesting reveal. In Australia the Mini had the Speedo in the centre and they specifically had to move it in front of the driver, but the Echo had it in the middle and it did not have to change. I think the Mini was low down whereas the Echo is high up, so it will be interesting what Australian authorities make of the Speedo if it remains on the central touch screen.

You’re right, the trunk/boot does work OK for many people. The four door sedan is the most popular car body style here in America. However, if you consider and the SUVs and CUVs that dominate here, clearly a lot of people here are looking for more functionality and utility, but I guess Tesla will sell you Model 3 CUV someday.

Anyhow, the trunk doesn’t work for me. If they remain as is, I won’t be getting a 3 in the future. I was let down by the trunk and dashboard, so I was not one of the early depositors. Too bad, it’s good looking car. I am getting Bolt.

I don’t think the present nose configuration will survive, either. The sharp edge will be softened/pulled-in a bit.

That is a GREAT video, thanks. 🙂

What if Tesla’s stock is truly overvalued? Wouldn’t that make the short sellers smart? The folks who shorted the housing market in 2006 were smart, right? The Tesla fan boys should realize that they may be as wrong as those who bought houses in 2006. Even if Tesla manages to do everything perfectly, it would still be worth nowhere near its $44 billion market value.

It’s all about making money in the stock market, and the saying, ‘time is money’ is more applicable there than almost anywhere else.
A stock may be overvalued but that does not mean you should short it. There are many other factors to consider. Opportunity cost, interest payments on the stock.

When you short a stock you have to consider a number of things. For instance shorts of Tesla have, as a whole, lost $30 billion in the last few months. Now, was that smart? It certainly did smart, and continues to do so.

Comparing Tesla to the housing bubble shows that you really have no fundamental understanding of this particular subject.

$30B? I’m not saying you’re wrong, but how do you get to that number?

Not very many short-sellers just take a position and doggedly hang on for a 100-point ride in the wrong direction. The accomplished short trader is generally a very active operator.

I would happily buy the overvalued Tesla stock (and take a hit) just to stick it to the f***s that are trying to make money by sabotaging Tesla.

“What if Tesla’s stock is truly overvalued? Wouldn’t that make the short sellers smart?” Not if it stays “overvalued” for an extended period of time… which is exactly what is happening. Since I’m not a “financial guy”, I’m not going to express an opinion on whether or not Tesla’s stock is truly overvalued. Certainly it’s overvalued by traditional analysis methods over the short term… by which I mean less than five years. But on a long term basis, there are potential markets for both electric cars and grid energy storage that are almost mind-bogglingly large! Tesla stock pumpers point out that if Tesla can expand into that market, its stock might actually be undervalued. Well, we’ll hope they’re right! But it seems foolish to bet money on it. Tesla is a volatile stock. (For those who don’t know, that means it fluctuates strongly and rapidly in value.) That means there is a high potential for making money on a well-timed short investment… but only if it’s a short-term investment. What puzzles me about what I call “serial Tesla FUDsters” is that they seem to have invested in a short stock position on a long-term basis! I’m not an investor; perhaps… Read more »

Its hard to put an accurate price on the potential domination of a entire segment that should be set for truly explosive growth in not just mid-high end BEV autos but also in battery storage markets.

With $400,000 people reserved for the Model 3, I think its obvious that the growth outlook hugely exceeds that of the laggard auto OEMs with their huge legacy costs and little to negative growth prospects.

You are aware that the “400,000” people with reservations does not equal 400,000 sales, right? There are tons of speculators, tire kickers that may, or may not buy the car and there may even be people in there trying to raise the stock value. Also a lot of people on that list are current Tesla owners who intend to dump their Model S for the 3, so not really new conquests.

Still the number (actually much less than 400,000 reportedly) is impressive. Likely they will get a solid 150,000-200,000 actual sales out of that.

Even if a current X/S owner buys a 3, that’s a car sold. Then if they trade in the X/S and Tesla gets to sell it again, that’s another car sold.

Just like they do now, Tesla is going to sell every single unit they can make, as quickly as they can make them. That’s going to be true well past the 500k mark and probably the 1M mark.

Dude. The number you’re quoting, is really really old and terribly out of date.

It’s more likely to be in the mid 600’s at this point… Yes. And that’s BEFORE the third reveal / Beta presentation.

You do the math, Mr. Blue Orb.

“You are aware that the ‘400,000’ people with reservations does not equal 400,000 sales, right?”

Aside from the fortunately few people like you who are only here to post anti-Tesla FUD, those of us who follow the “story” of Tesla Inc. are well aware that those 400,000 paid reservations indicate a market that is considerably stronger than the number of initial reservations. Unless Tesla drops the ball quite badly in what it delivers as the Model 3, we can be sure that the sales over the next few years will be far in excess of a mere 400,000, just as sales of the Model S have been far greater than the initial pre-orders for that car.

But I’m sure you’re not going to let little things like facts, logic, and history stop you from posting anti-Tesla FUD, now are you Dav8or?

No, you’ll keep ignoring all that and keep on posting the same ol’ discredited B.S. It’s what trolls do.

I’m no troll. Just skeptical of the hype. I may be wrong, I may be right. I didn’t realize that this is Tesla fan club site, I thought it was discussion and debate about EVs. Sorry to have disparaged your brand and annoyed you.

By the way, I have no idea what FUD means and I’ve been trying to figure it out and I’m stumped. I also have no clue what the guy above means by “Mr. Blue Orb” Must be an inside joke I guess.

“By the way, I have no idea what FUD means and I’ve been trying to figure it out and I’m stumped”

Joking, right?

Just pop it into google and the first hit that comes up….

I remember that five years ago, many people were adamant that sales of the Model S would dry to a few thousand per year once the pre-orders were fulfilled. We all know how that went.

How do you know demand will be in excess of the 400,000 reservations? That 400,000 may be several years of demand for EVs. When Tesla first announce the 3, I thought they had it all sewed up but time has passed and other makers are producing better EVs. The S and X compete against ICE cars, not other EVs. The 3 will need to compete against ICE cars and EVs that are getting much better. So Tesla needs to exponentially grow the market while outcompeting other like products. That is possible, but really hard to do for any product. Now they need to do it at a price range of $35-$40k. I think that is very far from a sure thing.

It even surprised Tesla. They were not in any way prepared for such and overwhelming response. My point being that your prognostications is more likely to be correct that not.

an overwhelming response instead of and, are to agree with plural instead of is.–sorry.

Talk about making something out of nothing….this is it.

Said the dinosaur, while watching a comet speeding towards him. 😉

Dav8or. It does not seem like many people have cancelled their orders. Frankly it would be stupid to do so as demand is high and one could easily flip it for a profit (especially if they can still get the $7500 credit).

What I have been hearing and what has shown up in some of the analysis of Tesla deposits from their financials is they may have in excess of 600k reservations. What most believe is they are not mentioning this at all so not to turn off other possible reservation deposits.

I put down a reservation on-line pre-reveal — and can’t wait to get my M3 — NO INTENTIONS to sell that bad boy.

I don’t think that hundreds of thousands of people would stand in line for hours and volutarily loan Tesla $1000,00 interest free for 1-2 years if the vast majority were not seriously interested in both the car and the success of Tesla.

I bet that at least 3/4 of these people will go through with the purchase and many hundreds of thousands more new buyers will take the plunge after the Model 3 hits the road.

One simply has to look at the dramatic decrease in rival ICE cars like BMW 3 series etc to see that many of those buyers are waiting instead for the Model 3.

Another topic: I was through the Amsterdam airport today. They had a Model X on display. I see cars in airports all the time – usually higher-end new offings (BMW and Mercedes are all over the place in Europe). The crowd around the Model X was astonishing. There were dozens of people gathered around the vehicle waiting for a chance to see it up close. I have honestly never seen such a crowd around a car in an airport.

The buzz around Tesla in Europe is something else.

Lousy quality is almost guaranteed with the 3 – just like with the other Tesla vehicles. Buy a Bolt instead.

If my upcoming BOLT ev is as quality a product as my GEN1 VOLTS, and ELR, I’ll be a satisfied camper.

lol bolt? you must be a poor.

Doesn’t the Bolt EV cost more than the Model 3?

Video shows “150GWh of Energy Storage per Year”

Do you think this is a typo? I thought the Gigafactory, per year, would generate ~35GWh of batteries for 500K BEVs and 15GWh of batteries for Power Packs/Power Walls.

Either this 150GWh of Energy Storage is a typo or there’s a very big announcement coming. Did Tesla figure out how to increase production by 10X?

The 150 gwh/year number is confusing. You are correct in saying the energy storage number is projected to be 15 gwh/year by 2018. Going into even more detail, the cells for storage are to be made in Japan, except for the present as model 3 use has not yet begun. As soon as Model 3 production begins, the cells made in Gigafactory1 are to go into Model 3 battery packs. The total storage and car battery pack projected figure at completion of Gigafactory1 (about or somewhat after 2020) is 150 gwh/year; perhaps that is the number they cite. The video should be redone to clarify these numbers.

Small ammendment: Powerwall2 and PowerPack2 are shipping with 2170 cells manufactured at the Gigafactory.


The future is bright.

Rich said: “I thought the Gigafactory, per year, would generate ~35GWh of batteries for 500K BEVs and 15GWh of batteries for Power Packs/Power Walls.” That was the plan originally announced; 35 GWh of battery cells produced per year at the Gigafactory, and an additional 15 GWh of PowerPacks and PowerWalls using cells produced at Panasonic’s other factories. Personally, I can’t understand why Tesla ever said they’d continue to buy large quantities of batteries from Panasonic’s other factories. If they really can make Gf batteries at a significantly lower per-kWh price, then why continue to pay Panasonic higher prices for cells produced elsewhere? As for Elon’s more recent claims of 2x or even 3x the original planned production at Gigafactory 1, I personally regard those claims as more aspirational than realistic. Ditto for Elon’s claims that he can cram two or three times as many production lines into the Gigafactory as originally planned. Elon Musk is a visionary, and that’s great to a certain extent for the leader of companies like Tesla and SpaceX, which are on the cutting edge of technology. But let us not forget that when it comes to running a real business at a profit*, practical business… Read more »

The production of Li-ion batteries is heavily pollutive, much more than that of the gas coming from combustion engines.

“The production of Li-ion batteries is heavily pollutive, much more than that of the gas coming from combustion engines.”

This is a horribly manipulative statement. But hey, I’ll play along.

Climate change is a huge Chinese Hoax!

Don’t feed the trolls.

OK, OK. No more feeding the trolls. 🙂

or the ArmChairExperts

it is true that the manufacture of lithium ion batteries results in the production of gasses that are both highly toxic and highly flammable, but i would expect that any good manufacturing process would capture those gasses.

Just drove through the Permian Basin and several refineries on the way home! Whew what a relief to smell my electric bicycle lithium batteries once I got home.

Liar. Lithium is a common element in many materials in the environment. Lithium / Graphite batteries in BEVs have the least amount of environmental impact from the entire range of batteries.

There is far more environmental damage caused from your 12 volt lead acid battery, and from poor disposal / recycling techniques for it.

lead acid batteries are probably the most recycled product out there. just about all of the battery components can be recycled.

Correct. And recycling them is regarded as one of the worst polluting industries, worldwide:


The more you know… *Roll Star Graphic*

you should have actually read more of the article other than just reading the headline. the article underscored the importance of the *proper* recycling of lead acid batteries. as i stated, when properly handled, nearly all of a lead acid battery is reusable. what that means is that you don’t throw away the spent lead. instead, you smelt it and reuse it to make new batteries.

in case you’re curious, proper handling of the acid involves neutralizing the acid (such as with baking soda) such that it can be recycled into fertilizer, among other things.

ArmchairCaptain posted long-discredited anti-EV FUD:

“The production of Li-ion batteries is heavily pollutive, much more than that of the gas coming from combustion engines.”

Not unless they’re burning the batteries. Last I looked, the battery pack was expected to last the lifetime of the car, whereas a tank of gas has to be replaced about once a week.

But of course, you won’t let facts or logic stop you from repeating this B.S., now will you? A troll’s gotta do what a troll’s gotta do!

Manufacturing virtually anything on a global use causes potential environmental damage. One of the good things about the burgeoning Lithium battery business is that it’s in its infancy in a world where (1) we are at least much more aware of challenges in sustainable manufacturing and we have a chance to minimize those impacts, and (2) the foundation customers (for EVs, anyway) are keenly intent on doing as little damage as possible.

Well, I don’t know what I was thinking but that was supposed to say “global market scale”

I’m a Model 3 reservation holder; waited in line the morning before the reveal, but I recently bought a used Model S, simply because a couldn’t wait anymore. The Model S is fantastic, even though it’s a 2012 (serial number P01249) and more than 2x what I’d ever paid for a car previously. Quality problems? Not at all. Perfect? No, there are some fit and finish things they’ve improved on, but you really have to look close to even notice. No one believes me when I tell them the car is almost 5 years old. Tesla clearly has missed projections and targets, but for a company that has grown production from 2000 cars in 2012 to over 80,000 four years later, I think they deserve some credit. After driving a four year old Model S for 6 months plus, I actually think they deserve a lot of credit. I’ll never own anything else, and I can’t wait to get my Model 3.

How soon we forget… Anyone remember this from Tesla’s Q2 2014 Shareholder review (1 August 2014)? Musk speaks: “… if somebody comes in who wants to buy the X, we try to convince them to buy the S. So we anti-sell it. And we don’t really provide all that much information or details about the car or provide [indiscernible] on when you can get it. Despite all that, there’s huge demand from around the world for the X.” BTW, that quote is also referenced in an insideev post… http://insideevs.com/teslas-current-approach-model-x-anti-sell-avoid-stoking-demand/ …from September of 2014. And back then when the boss was “anti-selling” he also told everyone that the car was almost ready for prime-time. The shareholder letter recounting Q2 and forecasting the future told us: “Development efforts remain on track for production of Model X in the spring of 2015. We anticipate having operational Alpha prototypes ready by next week in order to confirm design intent and Beta prototypes to be ready later this year.” (For those new to Tesla: The X of course was never produced in numbers of any consequence until a year after the shareholder letter projection and “beta prototypes” became “Signature Models”.) FWIW the shares were also… Read more »

realistic said:

“…’beta prototypes’ became ‘Signature Models’.”

I have no doubt that there is much truth in what you wrote, Realistic, but here you clearly are writing fiction. The Model S also had a “Signature” series when it was new; the Signature series for the Model X was nothing new.

And your suggestion that Tesla would sell production prototypes, which are used for testing, as new cars… well, that amounts to an accusation of fraud. Unless you have evidence to back that up, I suggest you retract the claim.

I would never, ever accuse them of fraud. I have plenty of respect for Tesla despite my great skepticism about (1) their leader’s tendency to… let’s say “extrapolate”, and (2) their ability to endure without eventually rationalizing the business. But the breadth of manufacturing error on the X was simply horrendous, from critical missing fasteners to gigantic panel gaps (not external but internal segments many cm long with sloppy weld fill) to non-working doors to… name anything but propulsion, really. This bespeaks unproved, unqualified processes that were anything but production ready. The idea that cars were delivered to service centers for one-two weeks of “quality checks” clearly shows those features didn’t undergo process validation. That’s a prototype, whether the company wants to call it that or not. BTW, I’m certainly aware of the existence of Sig models during the Model S intro, which while lumpy went FAR better than the X saga. So no retraction. (Indeed: I would welcome a legal action from Tesla against wee little me. They wouldn’t be able to endure discovery, and I can assure you they know this.) In a weak defense of Tesla, I’ll acknowledge they’ve all but admitted their fault and by and… Read more »

He is not building a car company. He is building a power company. His cars are only intended to disrupt the market push the large automakers to chase performance. He did the same with the Falcon 9 by landing the 3rd stage on a launch pad after launch and now reducing cost. Just another way to justify keeping the space shuttle in retirement.

I don’t think we need to “justify” keeping the Space Shuttle retired. It never was as reusable or as economical as the original design called for, partly because it had to keep being re-designed as its mission profiles kept changing. And that’s not even touching the issue of safety. Anyone who wants to read the Truth about lowering the costs of rocket launch systems, and about making them more reliable (or not), should read LEO on the Cheap, available free online here: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/79/LEOonthecheap.pdf I don’t know that SpaceX’s manned launch system will be perfect, but certainly SpaceX is taking a much more practical and less expensive approach to a truly reusable rocket launch system than any before it. As LEO on the Cheap points out, every additional piece of hardware in the system means more interfaces with other pieces, which introduces additional areas of possible failure. Simplifying the rocket system by drastically reducing the number of parts, as SpaceX has done, certainly provides the potential to make rocket launches much more reliable. The goal is to make manned orbital rocket flights as safe and reliable as commercial airline flights are now, and with a similar maintenance/ turnaround time between flights.… Read more »

July production looks overly optimistic.

I believe they will start the production in Dec making 100 units and then start ramping up the production in 2018.

If they really start selling in July, that’s great news.

Yeah, July production is overly optimistic, as Musk said himself. July is/was an ‘aspirational’ goal, not a realistic one.

Realistically, give them a couple months past then for all the suppliers to actually supply the required parts, then a couple months for testing and quality assurance of the initial runs down the line with actual production parts, and it’s unlikely we’ll see any for sale before November at earliest, IMO.