Tesla Model 3 – The Week That Electric Cars Went Mainstream With 325,000 Reservations

2 years ago by Eric Loveday 129

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Tweet

Tesla Tweet

Just moments ago, via Twitter, Tesla Motors announced that it had received 325,000 reservations for the Model 3 over the first full week of availability.

To give some perspective on continuing orders after the initial surge from the debut on March 31st, over the past 4 days, some 49,000 new deposits were placed without any further promotion from the company.

Additionally, Tesla released a blog post on the Model 3, which we’ve reproduced in its entirety below:

The Week that Electric Vehicles Went Mainstream

The Tesla Team April 7, 2016

A week ago, we started taking reservations for Model 3, and the excitement has been incredible. We’ve now received more than 325,000 reservations, which corresponds to about $14 billion in implied future sales, making this the single biggest one-week launch of any product ever. This interest has spread completely organically. Unlike other major product launches, we haven’t advertised or paid for any endorsements. Instead, this has been a true grassroots effort driven by the passion of the Tesla team that’s worked so hard to get to this point and our current and future customers who believe so strongly in what we are trying to achieve. Most importantly, we are all taking a huge step towards a better future by accelerating the transition to sustainable transportation.

We want to thank everyone who has shown their faith in Tesla and the mission of electric vehicles. We would write more, but we need to get back to increasing our Model 3 production plans!

But wait…there’s more.

Last night, Tesla sent out an email confirming that its “currently increasing our productions plans to minimize the wait for Model 3.”

See email below for more details.

3 email 1model 3 email 2

Source: Tesla

Tags: , , , , , , ,

129 responses to "Tesla Model 3 – The Week That Electric Cars Went Mainstream With 325,000 Reservations"

  1. JR says:

    This is fantastic news!,Tesla has proven the demand for Electric cars, other car manufactures must be biding nails!

    1. evcarnut says:

      My only concern is that I hope Tesla can Deliver,be profitable & GROW! That would make everyone concerned Happy ,Except some of the competition !

    2. floydboy says:

      I hope they’re doing more than biting nails!
      I hope they’re saying, “We can bring compelling electric cars to market too!” If Tesla has done anything here, it’s definitively proven that the desire is there for BEVs. The ball is now in the other manufacturers courts to help fulfill those desires.

    3. Waiting says:

      The demand for EV’s is there. But like many others I would like more info as soon as possible. Like when Tesla says, “Model 3 comes standard with autopilot hardware and supercharging capability.” When I hear that, I am assuming that they both will be working when I get my car….BUT it does not say ‘standard with FUNCTIONING autopilot and supercharging.’ I am going to be sick when I configure my car and learn that now I have to pay more for options to make the autopilot and supercharging work!!! Hmmmm.

      1. TomArt says:

        That announcement is still significant, insofar as the cars are upgradable at any time in their lifecycle if the current owner pays the fee.

        For the Model S, that is $3k. If you purchase the option at the point of sale, then it’s $2.5k.

        The important thing to note, here, is that only the safety features are standard, even in the Model S: lane warnings, adaptive cruise control, etc.

        The $2.5k is to unlock the features that makes autopilot “autopilot”: self-steering, parallel parking, summoning, etc.

        So, what I’m saying is, if it’s an optional activating fee on the Model S, then do not be surprised when it’s the same story for the 3 – a car with half the base price.

    4. Someone out there says:

      That is really the most important part. There can no longer be any doubt that if you produce a proper EV there is a significant market for it. This should tell other car manufacturers to start pushing the envelope and do a serious attempt at an EV. Enough with the compliance BS, enough with the minimal-improvement-each-year strategy. Do it properly and you will sell like hotcakes.

      This is a pivotal point in history. There is still research to do of course but this proves that the EV is here to stay. And conquer.

  2. Michael says:

    I just became the 325,001st registered. Can’t wait!

    1. Michael says:

      Forgot to say that my 2011 volt just turned over 101,000 miles. Should I hold out for 2-3 years with this one or get the 2017 volt in the meantime? Hmm?

      1. mr. M says:

        Hmm a typicall ICE hold well up to 200.000 miles without major issues if you service it regularly.

        If you drive 50% of your miles from electric only, the Volt should be good for 400.000 miles overall. If you drive 70% electric, you only added 30.000 miles on your ICE until now. Then you could drive it until 600k miles. Awesome.

        Why would you change to new Volt, except for refined ACC.

      2. ffbj says:

        If it is running good, just keep it. You may want reserve soon though or 3 years will turn into 5.

      3. dave BLOOM says:

        having had a ’13 Volt and now a ’16 (same as a ’17, basically) Get a new volt NOW. it is so vastly improved!

    2. Malik A says:

      what does your reservation number look like
      RNXXXXXX
      please post 6 digits after RN don’t need the whole things
      Mine is RN108450xxx
      reserved after unveiling online

      1. TomArt says:

        I never got a number – I have an e-mail confirmation that arrived a day later, but no number (reserved online moments before the reveal).

        1. Anon says:

          Create an account @ Tesla.com, view your product reservations there.

          1. Nate says:

            Thanks. I did not know that, but was wondering the same thing.

          2. TomArt says:

            Yes, thank you for the info!

            Mine is RN1075294XX

            “Your Model 3 was reserved on 3/31/2016. You’ll be invited to configure based on the date of your reservation.”

            1. TomArt says:

              I’m on the East Coast and not a current Tesla owner…will be interesting to see how this all plays out…

      2. acevolt says:

        I would really like to know what this number means. I reserved shortly after the reveal and I am number:
        RN107929XXX

        I found mine on: my.teslamotors.com
        account.

        1. TomArt says:

          Yeah, I reserved online moments before the reveal, and my number is very close to yours: 1075294XX

          I was wondering if the first 6 digits is the literal order in which your reservation was received? And the others might be internal regional codes they assigned?

          If that is the case, then my reservation was the 107,529th received by their system.

          1. TomArt says:

            Orders might have slowed down enough for most people to stop and watch the reveal, which would be consistent with my guess. I think. Hmmm…

    3. Waiting says:

      How did you learn your number?…or are you guessing?

      1. Rich says:

        If you reserved a Model 3, an account was created for you on Tesla.com. Just reset the password on the email address you used to reserve the model 3. Once reset, log into tesla.com (“My Tesla” in the top right corner) and you’ll see your reservation number.

    4. Will Davis says:

      Pedantic moment: It’s 325,000th. ‘th’ for the end of thousandth. ‘st’ is used for the end of first.

  3. mr. M says:

    Interessting. Let the show start 🙂

    1. RexxSee says:

      Mine is 108406xxx

  4. Boris says:

    I’m probably number 300,000 on the list 🙁 but hey better than number 500,000 in mid-summer…

    1. evcarnut says:

      Yea ! l o l ..I think I’ll be waiting forever for mine !

    2. Mikael says:

      For $10k I will trade you my ~130k spot in the line ;)… (Not really, I’m holding on to my spot)

      1. Boris says:

        Haha, mine will hopefully have glitches fixed…

        1. TomArt says:

          That’s what I figure – I’m not concerned that I probably won’t hear from Tesla until about a full year or more after production (early 2019). I’m on the East Coast, and I’m not a current Tesla owner, so I’m probably pretty far down the list in US terms.

  5. fotomoto says:

    “Tesla sent out an email confirming that its “currently increasing our productions plans to minimize the wait for Model 3.”

    China?

    1. scott franco (the evil EV owning republican) says:

      They set the factory on ludicrous speed…

      1. Kdawg says:

        I’m imagining something like this going on in the Fremont Factory:

        1. Boris says:

          Kdawg, i haven’t been keeping up with all the discussions under all articles lately. What are you getting? Volt, Bolt or M3? Sven, how about you?

          1. Kdawg says:

            I put a deposit down on a Model 3, but being in the Midwest, and not a current Tesla owner, I don’t expect to get invited to configure one until some time in 2018. I’m OK with this since my 2013 Volt only has 35,000 miles on it. When it comes time to configure my Model 3, and I know the pricing/options, then I will compare to the current Bolt EV specs. There’s a few things I like better about the Bolt EV, and some things I like better about the Model 3, so I will wait until I can compare them side by side before making any kind of purchase.

      2. TomArt says:

        We’ll know that happens when they add an underline to the TESLA name on the factory.

    2. Nix says:

      Yes, Tesla already has stated that they plan to build a factory to build cars for the Chinese market in a factory in China.

      No, they are not going to import Chinese made M3’s into the US, if that is what you were implying.

  6. gizmo84 says:

    I wonder if the crazy amount of preorders will encourage Tesla to push up there release date?Think about it, if they hire more people to work on this thing and validate it they could probably release it sooner. maybe they will finish the rest of the Gigafactory now…who knows just me being impatient/optimistic ha

    1. mr. M says:

      Gigafactory is already up and running.

      1. mr. M says:

        sorry to correct me. Yes the rest needs to be constructed.

      2. Ryan H says:

        The gigafactory is only running to assemble powerpacks using Panasonic cells. The gigafactory is not yet producing its own battery cells which will be critical to supplying the Model 3.

        1. RexxSee says:

          How can you know for sure they did not begin?

          1. Basically, Tesla Has Said Panasonic is ‘starting’ to move equipment in, and they expect the first cells coming off the line in the pilot plant in June-July, 2016. At least that is what I remember reading about!

    2. bro1999 says:

      They are gonna need $$$$$, and lots more of it to do that. Tesla isn’t exactly cash rich at the moment.

      1. Alaa says:

        Just $325 Million and counting. At this rate they will have 3 million reservations by year end. That is $3 BILLION in cash, with no interest.

        Let us not forget the income that Tesla gets from selling the s and x and the powerwall etc.

        1. mr. M says:

          50.000 in 5 days. Meaning they will add another 2.3 million reservations by the end of the year if this can be continued. But i think the reserve rate will slow down, since a lot of people already reserverd one.

          For comparison, the yearly sales of the 3er bimmer where 476.792 worldwide in 2014.

      2. Speculawyer says:

        Tesla will have NO PROBLEM whatsoever raising more money as needed. They’ve got orders lined up, they’ve got a rabid fan base, they have a huge number of supporters.

    3. Tech01x says:

      I doubt pushing up the car makes any sense. On the other hand, pushing forward the production capacity does makes sense.

      1. Klaus says:

        Exactly! Don’t push the date. Make sure the design is completed and tested as planned. However, be prepared to start production at a higher level to meet the demand and maximize the # of customers that get all or some of the Federal tax rebate.

    4. Moose says:

      What they can do is to introduce another model (Y?) and open reservations for it before production starts for model 3. Then alot of the reservations will be transfered from model 3 an pushed back say 2 years.

      1. LOL says:

        The competition must be shaking severely right now as Tesla could easily announce pushing forward M3 production to January 2017, but prior to that announce initial sketches of Model Y are being given a go. On the other hand, one door hasn’t been slammed close for the competition and that’s wireless charging, and Merc and BMW are steered toward further developing that link in order to offer EV buyers one vital convenience Tesla didn’t and hence scoop apartment dwellers, who to date haven’t had quite of an opportunity of becoming EV owners. That is if they mean to survive Tesla’s onslaught.

      2. Eletruk says:

        Well, Elon Musk did hint at the possibility of a pickup truck, if the demand was there. And since the F-150 is Ford’s best selling vehicle for something like 35 years, I would say: Yea, there’s a demand.

    5. Someone out there says:

      They have given themselves 18 months. They should use that time to design the best car they can instead of rushing it and possibly miss something important.

      1. TomArt says:

        Exactly. Rushing the process is exactly the last thing Tesla needs – according to Consumer Reports, the used cars to avoid include every model year of the S except for 2014 – so Tesla still hasn’t nailed the manufacturing process yet.

    6. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      gizmo84 asked:

      “I wonder if the crazy amount of preorders will encourage Tesla to push up there release date?”

      Well, Elon has already tweeted at least a couple of times about needing to or trying to move things forward, but I doubt they can accelerate the schedule by much.

      Let’s consider only the Gigafactory: Elon has said it’s not on the “critical path” to the Model ≡, meaning that the Gigafactory project is running ahead of other things they need to build the Model ≡. But how much can they accelerate those other things before they catch up with the Gigafactory build-out schedule?

      No doubt Tesla has contracted with lithium suppliers, copper suppliers, steel and aluminum suppliers (for the “can” or casing for the battery cells), and various other things needed for making battery cells. Can they get all those suppliers to move up their schedule? Does the Gigafactory’s production of cells depend on that new lithium refining operation (I’m not sure it should really be called “mining”) nearby in Nevada?

      Panasonic has been very obviously reluctant to commit money or resources to the Gigafactory project; they’re being very cautious about investments, and have only agreed to commit in steps as the project advances. Can Tesla strong-arm Panasonic into installing their production lines in the Gigafactory, and hire workers to run them, sooner than planned?

      Of course, I’m sure that if Tesla pays Panasonic enough, they can get them to speed things up. But what does that do to the profit margin of the Model ≡? It’s already projected to be only ~15%, down from an average 25% for the Model S.

      Perhaps Tesla can accelerate the schedule slightly, but frankly I doubt they can speed it up much without wrecking the profit margin. Tesla is notorious for making overly optimistic predictions about how soon they’ll get things into production, and frankly I’ll be at least mildly surprised if they can actually hit their target date of the end of 2016 for actual start of production, despite all this talk of speeding things up.

      * * * * *

      For those interested, here’s a flowchart for materials processing and manufacturing in the Gigafactory:

      http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/gigafactroy-2.jpg

      1. Rich says:

        I think they can accelerate the production rate. It’s not hard to hire a second shift. They can accelerate things of this nature to ramp up the production rate faster. Maybe not bring it to market any sooner, but certainly increase the volume when they do come to market.

        “Tesla is notorious for making overly optimistic predictions about how soon they’ll get things into production”

        To be fair, the Model S was their first manufactured vehicle. They didn’t know how to manufacture cars and I’m sure they have learned a lot since then.
        The model X was a self-inflicted wound that took 2 years to heal. Had they stuck to the core of what a Tesla is, they would have been much closer to their original dates.
        Elon Musk said they’ve learned their lesson, I guess we’ll see if that’s true.

        1. TomArt says:

          Well, since they need to keep costs down, they aren’t likely to go nuts with unique things like Falcon doors and stand-alone seats that don’t fold down with automatic headrests.

          Compared to the X, the ≡ is rather straight-forward. They already have experience with big glass windshields, normal second-row seats that fold flat, center-mounted big touchscreen and clever GUI, retractable door handles, autopilot hardware and software, dual motor hardware and software, smart suspension hardware and software…etc. Everything that has been confirmed as being standard or optional thus far is not stepping outside the Model S box – which is, by comparison, tried-and-true technologies.

          1. Rich says:

            Agreed. I think the outstanding is Part 2 of the Reveal.
            Elon mentioned something about a space shuttle cockpit. I was thrilled and scared at the same time.

            1. Maybe the Physical Dash Display will actually be the worlds best HUD (Heads Up Display *Elon does not like to do ‘Average’)!

              Maybe they will use sensors to see where your eyes are looking – and keep the HUD Display centered in your vision as you change your viewing direction?

  7. Rick Danger says:

    Wow, I thought I was being “realistically optimistic” when I said they’d have 100,000 reservations in the first week.
    GO TESLA!
    To all the Tesla haters out there… UP YOURS.

    1. Anon says:

      +1000

      I still shake my head at those that INSISTED there would only be SKETCHES of the vehicle, at the reveal.

      And they showed off THREE functional prototypes, and gave rides in all of them. Buahahahahahahahaha!

      Best FU the folks at Tesla have given to the Shorts, Fossil Fuel Lobbyists, Legacy Automakers, Corrupt Politicians, General Trolls and Doubters, IMHO.

      1. Speculawyer says:

        Actually, by what I hear, the red one was just a rolling mule that was pushed onto the stage. That one was not used for test rides. Only the silver gray and matte black ones were.

        1. TomArt says:

          I noticed that – it just showed up, no driver, no headlights on or anything…must have been pushed on stage in the shadows while everyone was watching Musk.

  8. Loek says:

    I think the most impressive thing is that in the last 4 days, after everyone that made up their minds before the event placed their orders, and after any real hope of the tax credits was gone, they collected another 49K reservations. that is an annual run rate of about 4,500,000 cars, nine time their projected 2020 sales rate. The doubters thought half a million sales a year in 2020 was beyond reach reach.

    Although I do not expect Tesla to continue providing updates on order volume, it would be interesting to see at what point it drops below about 3 thousand a day, or a million a year.

    The other interesting thing is that most of the people I saw in line and that I know ordered were younger than the Model S average buyer.

    1. mr. M says:

      “The other interesting thing is that most of the people I saw in line and that I know ordered were younger than the Model S average buyer.”

      This is easy explaniable. The older you get, the higher the chances are that you earned some money. Being 1 year after studies, you could not spent 100k for a car. But you could spend 1k to reserve a 40k car that you will buy in 2 years from now. 😉

  9. Murrysville EV says:

    I reserved at 10:35 pm ET on 31 Mar 2016, so pretty early.

    But by ‘currently increasing our production plans’, do they mean they are merely planning for more capacity, or an earlier launch?

    Given all the work they have to do, an earlier launch is unlikely. 9 women can’t have a baby in 1 month.

    1. Eric says:

      “9 women can’t have a baby in 1 month”

      Beware, there are still managers that don’t get this simple fact. But I’m hoping they don’t work for Tesla Motors.

      1. Eric W says:

        “9 women can’t have a baby in 1 month”

        Are you my alter Ego? I have worked in IT software development and recently in robotics since the 90s and this has been my biggest concern since the reservations has rolled in. I think think “9 women can’t have a baby in 1 month” should be the title of every conversation at Tesla about increasing production plans.

        Although, they do have a nice working prototype, so why don’t we just move what they have up to Production Today (kidding, sort of).

        I have a CPO Model S85 and Model 3 reservation, so my wait is a little more enjoyable then others.

        1. Nix says:

          The view from your wait is much better from your vantage point closer to the front of the line (since you are a current Tesla owner and get a higher delivery priority).

          I’ve been predicting since last fall that CPO prices would go up about now. I wonder if used Tesla prices will skyrocket even more now just so that people can get closer to the front of the line for the M3?

          I can see some people financing a used Model S with the idea of selling it when they get their M3.

          1. jelloslug says:

            There are almost zero real CPO cars available right this second. Out of the 284 cars listed on the “preowned” site only 11 of them are actually CPO cars. The rest are retired loaners and demo cars.

  10. Ocean Railroader says:

    I think 325,000 high range electric cars will do something to global markets or at least to oil markets in the United States.

    1. Speculawyer says:

      Tesla just disrupted Saudi’s plans to IPO SaudiAramco. They are not going to get whatever high valuation they wanted.

  11. Murrysville EV says:

    People’s linear math on this is crazy.

    Model 3 orders are following a logarithmic curve quite nicely:

    First column = Hours after portal opened
    Second column = Total pre-orders
    12 115000
    24 180000
    72 276000
    168 325000
    6600 628621 predicted by end 2016
    8784 651621 predicted for 366 days
    13680 687265 predicted by mid-Q4 2017

    This rate could taper off dramatically if customers believe they won’t see a car in a ‘reasonable’ timeframe.

    A lot could still change.

    1. Anon says:

      I would expect a dip in reservations over time. But then, once PHASE 2 of the reveal is shown, another big jump in reservations seems likely, again tapering (probably sooner as the reality of delivery dates sets in) over time, until initial delivery.

      Initial delivery again, would likely prompt further reservations, as the reality of the product is verified and sinks in.

      Also, Model Y… There could well be another model, further along in development, being shown, sometime before M3 Sedan gets built.

      And that’s a whole other fan to the flames. 😉

      1. Rich says:

        I would take the model Y over the model 3 in a heartbeat.

    2. TomArt says:

      Agreed. Seems reasonable.

  12. Get Real says:

    More excellent news and further validation that Tesla’s plan is working well and in full swing.

    Add this to the fact that the Models S outsold the Mercedes S class in its own backyard as well as being the best selling large luxury car in the US.

    And BTW, a fantastic side-effect of all this validation that Tesla’s plan is working is the large reduction in the whining of the cynics/critics/haters and shorters who used to come here to carpet bomb all the Tesla threads to spread their anti-Tesla FUD.

  13. carcus says:

    I’m sure this is all really bad news for Tesla and its investors. Here’s automotive “super genius” Bob Lutz to explain ….

    Bob? ……

    1. gizmo84 says:

      Bob Lutz is just like Steve Ballmer when he said the iphone would fail.

      1. Rick says:

        Hahaha exactly!

      2. ffbj says:

        Good analogy.

    2. Bob says:

      Model 3 doesn’t work, looks like a orca with a terrible interior and Via Motors brings a converted 80 kWh Silverado with 400 kWh dual motor beating all Tesla cars! 😉

      1. jelloslug says:

        That nobody can buy….

  14. Ziv says:

    The Tesla III is going to be a transformative car when it arrives, but opening up reservations for a car that won’t be delivered for a year or more is hardly going “mainstream”.
    I wish it would arrive sooner rather than later. Can’t wait to see it on the road!

    1. floydboy says:

      Musk knows Tesla can’t do it alone. He’s hoping for a leveraged effect, in which other manufacturers will ‘want some of that gravy’ for themselves and produce more electric cars of their own. Thus accelerating electric car mainstreaming.

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Ziv said:

      “The Tesla III is going to be a transformative car when it arrives, but opening up reservations for a car that won’t be delivered for a year or more is hardly going ‘mainstream’.”

      I offered the opinion just a few days ago that even 300k-500k Model ≡ sales (looking to the future and actual sales, not just reservations) still wasn’t sufficient to push EVs into the mainstream, because global automobile sales last year were 82.9 million vehicles, and 500k is only 0.6% of that… only 6/10 of 1% of global sales. That’s rather far from “mainstream”.

      But to argue the other side of the question: What is or isn’t “mainstream” is largely a matter of perception. And if enough people believe EVs have gone mainstream… well, that’s a self-fulfilling prophecy!

      However, I think we need to wait and see how people react (or don’t) to the Model ≡ outside of our tech-savvy, EV enthusiast “echo chamber” before we start proclaiming that the EV really has gone mainstream.

  15. “Mr Lutz, come back! Where are you going?”
    “I have get my Model 3 Reservation in, I mean – How did they do this? I need to find out!”
    /fly on the interview room wall!

    1. TomArt says:

      😀

  16. pk says:

    I wonder if this will affect the pricing of used model S?

    1. Ryan H says:

      Nope, new BMW 3-series don’t affect the price of used 7-series, or A4 vs A8, etc, etc, etc

      1. Nix says:

        Ryan — Actually, BMW’s release of the brand new 6-Series 4-door did indeed impact sales of other BMW models.

        Adding a new model often changes sales of other models in a maker’s lineup.

        But in this case, it is the pure market buzz for the Tesla brand itself that is going to increase sales. Many people are now hearing about Tesla for the first time from friends and relatives that are talking about their reservations they placed.

        They now have another 325,000 voices promoting their product through word of mouth. That is going to help the Tesla brand recognition and image, which will push more sales of all Tesla products.

        I bought a grey on grey Tesla logo hat a few years ago before the Model S came out. Nobody knew what the logo was for. Last week I wore the hat to a local hardware store. The young kid behind the counter recognized it and asked if I had a Tesla, and said he thought they were cool.

        Positive name recognition for Tesla as a brand is spreading like crazy. For all the Model S sales that the M3 cannibalizes, will probably be made up for in the M3 drawing more people to the brand.

    2. Kimmo57 says:

      I bet it’ll affect the specs of the S.

    3. MDEV says:

      How a Mercedes C class affected the price of CPO Mercedes S class.

    4. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      pk asked:

      “I wonder if this will affect the pricing of used model S?”

      More than one person has noted a sudden lack of available Model S’s from Tesla’s CPO program. Was there a sudden flurry of sales caused by all the news over the Model ≡ Reveal? Or has Tesla for some reason pulled those off the market temporarily for one reason or another?

      Inquiring minds want to know!

      Actually I can’t believe that the news about the Model ≡ reveal would push the price of used Model S’s down at this time. Now, it may be that there will be Tesla owners trading in their old Model S on a new Model ≡, but not until they can actually take possession of the M≡. So I can’t see prices going down at this point. They might well go up, because all the buzz over the M≡ has created a lot of free advertising for Tesla, so demand is undoubtedly up for all Tesla cars… new and used.

      1. ModernMarvelFan says:

        IMO, some of the CPO MOdel S looks like better deal than a nicely optioned Model 3 (without tax incentives).

        I also like the look of Model S more than Model 3.

  17. Speculawyer says:

    So Tesla just got as many preorders as the total number of ALL plug-in cars sold in the USA for the last 3 years COMBINED.

    Yeah, I would call that a tipping point.

    1. pk says:

      + ≡≡≡,≡≡≡

  18. leafowner says:

    Here is what I hope happens….Tesla begins to sell the M3 late 2017 at a relatively slow pace as they begin to ramp up production. They produce at a 50-75k/year pace in Q1 & Q2 of 2018. They hit the magic “200k sold – tax credit begins to fade” threshold in July 2018 giving them the rest of the 3rd quarter and 4th quarter for the full tax credit — when production picks up to the 200k+/year pace — therefore maximizing the number of early signers who can take advantage of the $7500 tax credit…. Since max capacity at Freemont is 500k/yr — (by 2020) my bet on the split will be 350k Model 3 (plus Model Y) and 150k for the S & X. Of course all this will change when they begin the next production plant and Gigafactory.

    1. Paul says:

      They do not only produce for the USA.

  19. suresh says:

    i think elon is hinting panasonic to hurry up and start cell production at gigafactory.

    1. Anon says:

      If Panasonic still had any reservations (pun intended) about going “Balls Deep” investing in the Gigafactory– this is the hour to step up.

      1. Speculawyer says:

        Indeed. Between dog & pony show for the PowerPack & PowerWall and now the 325,000+ orders for the Model 3, Panasonic needs to up their game and start cranking out batteries at a crazy pace.

        1. Trace says:

          Well, Panasonic is just “Slightly ahead of their time” whereas Tesla is WAY ahead of their time. 😉

      2. Paul Stoller says:

        If Panasonic keeps dragging their feet I would bet someone like LG would be perfectly willing to fill that role.

        1. JakeY says:

          Or Samsung (which had negotiated to become a supplier for Tesla before).

          1. Paul Stoller says:

            They would be another likely contender. I only mentioned LG as I believe they had gotten the contract for the roadster battery upgrade, or maybe some other project. But I thought I remembered reading they had done a small deal with LG.

  20. QC says:

    They will have 500k by summer, the amount of free press globally is worth easily a billion alone.

    Toyota and Fiat will be in big trouble if they don’t start the shift to EVs soon.

    1. Speculawyer says:

      I’m sure Toyota has a skunkworks program that they will unveil as soon as they throw in the towel on their fuel cell pipedream. Fiat has the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV in development . . . that should do well. But they better get a plan going on pure EVs.

      True mass manufacturing of batteries at the gigafactory should help bring down the cost of the batteries and make this all possible.

      1. floydboy says:

        This is more of a direct threat to the Germans, like BMW and Porsche, so they will be getting on the ball first. But yeah, Toyota is going to eventually have to ‘back burner’ the fuel cell stuff.

        1. JakeY says:

          Yeah, BMW and Porsche will be the first to feel the burn, but BMW at least has the i3 (and planned i5).

          For Toyota, I’m looking forward to when they drop their stance that only hydrogen is the future. Daimler already is doubtful about hydrogen, and Hyundai/Kia is also focusing more on EVs.

          1. TomArt says:

            Mercedes is already feeling it, with Model S outselling the S-series in Western Europe, as well as the US!

  21. jmac says:

    Sounds to me like people are voting with their feet.

  22. Someone out there says:

    Ha! Called it in the other thread! I said 328k, almost spot on!

    1. TomArt says:

      cool

    2. floydboy says:

      Smashing old chap!

  23. Peter says:

    Too bad this $35,000 car will cost no less than $66,163 (DKK432,433) here in Denmark in 2018, after taxes. That’s about the same price an AWD Model S 70D cost in the US.

    Sources:
    http://blog.bilbasen.dk/sa-meget-kommer-tesla-model-3-til-koste-danmark-3550/

    http://nyheder.tv2.dk/penge/2016-04-07-afgifterne-aeder-her-er-prisen-paa-den-nye-tesla-i-danmark

    1. Get Real says:

      Well, you can try and change the policy or even the government along with other people.

  24. ffbj says:

    I suppose now detractors will start calling the Model III the middle-class man’s toy.

    1. floydboy says:

      Of course! They’ll also quote the most loaded version as the REAL price.

      1. TomArt says:

        And deride it as a mid-life-crisis symptom.

  25. proxymusanonimy says:

    Now who or what company said the battery technology is not there yet?

  26. proxymusanonimy says:

    Imho, that big reservation number will best result in 50% sales delivery.
    Anyone know what the Bolts reservation count is?

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Not quite sure what you mean; are you suggesting a 50% cancellation rate on Model ≡ reservations?

      As I recall, Model S reservations have a 25% cancellation rate, for a $5000 reservation. It would be silly to suggest the $1000 Model ≡ reservations will have exactly the same cancellation rate, but 50% seems a rather high estimate to me.

      At any rate, the actually rate of cancellation isn’t what’s important. What’s important is the total reservations at any time. So long as new reservations come in faster than older ones are cancelled, Tesla will be raking in huge wodges of cash!

    2. Will Davis says:

      50% is a very pessimistic assumption. Come now, it’s going to be closer to 70!

  27. Get Real says:

    So according to you, big numbers of reservations are a bad thing?

    1. ffbj says:

      Aye, and there’s the rub. It would not matter few or many they will some reason to find fault.

  28. Will Davis says:

    It’s a tough time to be a Tesla employee. “Honey, I won’t see you for another 2 years, I’ll miss you”

  29. dave BLOOM says:

    LOL. IT WILL BE 3 YEARS before any of you see a 3.

    sheeple.

    FOMO.

  30. dave BLOOM says:

    How many drive motors is Tesla replacing per DAY in the model S??