Tesla Model 3 Surges To Top 10 In U.S. Passenger Car Sales In July

AUG 3 2018 BY WADE MALONE 124

The best selling electric sedan also earns a place in the Top 20 for all U.S. automobiles in July.

In July, the Tesla Model 3 set a number of records on the InsideEVs U.S. Plug-In Sales Scorecard. With our estimated 14,250 sales, it set an all-time single month record for any electric or plug-in vehicle. In addition, the Model 3 has set an all-time yearly record in the U.S. for a single model with 38,617. (With 5 months still remaining.)

Of course, the best is yet to come. Earlier this month we reported that the Model 3 could very well end the 2nd half of 2018 in the top 5 of Sedan sales. We are seeing the beginning of this ascension on the charts. GoodCarBadCar ranks the Model 3 in the top 10 of passenger car sales and the top 20 for all automotive sales in July. However, keep in mind this does not include sales from General Motors who now only report quarterly.

Tesla Sales In July

For their charts, GoodCarBadCar used InsideEVs Model 3 sales estimates of 14,250 deliveries. In Tesla’s Q2 earning results, the automaker reported a 52% market share of the Model 3 among “mid-sized premium sedans”. Tesla includes in this category the BMW 3-series, Audi A4, Mercedes C-class, Lexus IS and Jaguar XE. Using estimates for the XE and final sales data for the remaining models, Tesla seems to have sold somewhere between 13,800 and 14,000 Model 3s in July. This puts our July estimate accurate within ~3% and slots the Model 3 just above the Hyundai Elantra and Subaru Forester on the GoodCarBadCar sales charts.

This feat was achieved despite the fact that strained Tesla Service Centers held back deliveries from rising even higher last month. However, the young automaker should shake off those growing pains soon. It will be interesting to watch the vehicle’s growth for the remainder of the year.

GoodCarBadCar July 2018 U.S. Passenger Car Sales:

Model 3 Lands In Top 10 Cars

GoodCarBadCar July 2018 U.S. Vehicle Sales:

Model 3 Lands In Top 20 Automobiles

TESLA MODEL 3

33 photos
2. Tesla Model 3
Range: 310 miles; 136/123 mpg-e. Still maintaining a long waiting list as production ramps up slowly, the new compact Tesla Model 3 sedan is a smaller and cheaper, but no less stylish, alternative, to the fledgling automaker’s popular Model S. This estimate is for a Model 3 with the “optional” (at $9,000) long-range battery, which is as of this writing still the only configuration available. The standard battery, which is expected to become available later in 2018, is estimated to run for 220 miles on a charge. Tesla Model 3 charge port (U.S.) Tesla Model 3 front seats Tesla Model 3 at Atascadero, CA Supercharging station (via Mark F!) Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 The Tesla Model 3 is not hiding anymore! Tesla Model 3 (Image Credit: Tom Moloughney/InsideEVs) Tesla Model 3 Inside the Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 rear seats Tesla Model 3 Road Trip arrives in Tallahassee Tesla Model 3 charges in Tallahassee, trunk open.

Source: goodcarbadcar.net

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124 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Surges To Top 10 In U.S. Passenger Car Sales In July"

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theflew

This article glosses over the fact that the same manufactures of cars have increased truck/CUV/SUV sales. It’s like coming in 3rd in the world cup.

TM3x2 Chris

Are you trying to say that the other manufacturers willingly give up their sedan market share?
BTW, coming in 3rd at the world cup is quite an accomplishment. Ask Argentina, Portugal, Spain, or Germany.

EVShopper

Well, Ford certainly is, as they are cancelling all their sedan production.

Dante

That’s involuntary. Ford’s sedan sales are down 20%+ in the last year alone. I have a Ford sedan right now and I can tell you it’ll definitely be my last. I could not recommend a vehicle any less.

Ziv

My nephew has had two Ford Fusions and really liked them. I haven’t driven either but they are comortable and mildly sporty. A client has a Focus he likes a lot. I think Ford is cutting their own throat by giving up on sedans.

Dante
I just got a call from Ford service just now actually. Called to apologize for damages during routine 60k mile service (which cost $934 and took five whole days) and called to schedule a repair appointment. I have to say though, my transmission stopped working at 40k miles and was later recalled. Just went straight to neutral on the highway. My barely-used passenger door knob fell off at 50k miles, like right onto the street, and that was a good $500 to repair. My hill assist break system stopped working at about 58k miles so I’m playing a mini game at every hilly stop light of “don’t roll back into the car behind me.” It’s $2,200 to repair and it’s enough of a safety issue that I should get it fixed, but the car isn’t even worth that much anymore. I originally bought the thing new in 2011 in a swelling of patriotism for US automakers after the crisis, but they certainly haven’t returned the favor by giving me a decent, safe, and reliable way to get to work every day. The thing wont even stay together long enough to try to sell to be honest. If this is something… Read more »
Ziv

You mean my anecdotal evidence isn’t universal? This is my shocked face… 😉

Dante
My car fell apart in multiple ways and had multiple extremely serious recalls. I mean I could actually keep going about how terrible this thing was. At some point the chance that all these things happened to me and don’t happen to others becomes vanishingly small. I would literally plead with anyone I love not to put their life in the hands of Ford at this point. The car is DANGEROUS and Ford doesn’t seem particularly concerned. Not to mention how unacceptable it is to ask me to pay for repairs on things that shouldn’t be breaking in the first place. I didn’t crash the car, the car just started to fall apart. It almost feels like a profit strategy. None of this matters anyway because the fact is people are not buying Ford sedans and that’s the reason they’re giving up on them. That’s on them. They could have just made their cars better. By the way I just googled Ford Fusion recalls for you nephew and saw this from two weeks ago: “The recall specifically applies to the 2013-2016 Ford Fusion and 2013-2014 Ford Escape and stems from a problem with a part connected to the vehicle’s transmission… Read more »
Dante

Here is another Ford Fusion recall from May:

“Ford Motor said Wednesday it is issuing a safety recall for the 2014 through 2018 model-year Ford Fusion and Lincoln MKZ sedans.

The recall comes after officials discovered the cars have “potentially loose steering wheel bolts that could result in a steering wheel detaching from the steering column,” Ford said in a statement.”

Ladies and gentleman, the “sporty” Ford Fusion.

SJC

Search Ford Fusion problems to see.
The 2010 year was the worst.
https://www.carcomplaints.com/Ford/Fusion/2010/

Will

And if they bleed out and die I wouldn’t care. No bailout for you. Apple might buy them out

Mikey

I had a 2010 Ford Fusion, my first American car in at least 20 years. I traveled and rented a 2015 Fusion and expected it to be an advance that would be easy to drive. Ford had completely changed so many things that I could hardly figure out what was what. Really dumb not to keep the car’s core characteristics the same. Also, my 2010 Fusion had a problem with the driver’s door opening TWICE in the first 10,000 miles that I owned it. I really wanted to buy an American car, but reliability is number one, so I have a Prius Prime now and it’s much more reliable.

Billy G

so we are roughly a year and half away from the model Y hatchback, and 2-4 years from the Tesla truck coming out, if it both of those end up having a lower TCO compared to the F-series, Rav4, CR-V what then? we already know that it costs less to service these cars over time, cost less to fuel, the question will no longer be why electric, it will be why not electric, because it will make fiscal sense.

Andy
18 months is a long time in car terms. We already know there are going to to be multiple similar BEV crosovers available by that point, so it’s not going to be as clear cut as the Model 3. 18 months is also the minimum for initial deliveries, if previous Tesla models are anything to go by you’ll be waiting at least two years before you can realistically get your hands on one (thats all assuming an early 2020 production start, not Q3 or 4). The Pickup (if it’s actually a consumer pickup, not a construction vehicle as shown in the “concept” sketch) may take part of the premium market but it’s unlikely to take much in it’s first iteration just due to the weight and cost of batteries (probably starting at 125kWh and up to 200kWh for a “long range” version that will do in the region of 150 miles with a trailer and 350 empty.) It’s also worth pointing out at this point that Ford are going to be releasing a PHEV pickup in the next 18-24 months, which (assuming it’s done right) will reduce any gap between a full BEV Tesla truck, even if released at the… Read more »
Dante

How is the Model 3 clear cut? What is that long list of EV’s in the scorecard for?

You can pick up your cheap PHEV SUV or sedan or whatever today. On top of that you can just pick up any of the other sedans in the top 10 for half the price of the Model 3. These companies are already competing with Tesla and we can see the sea of red sales drops in the chart right above as a result.

If it takes them 6-8 years to figure out how to make a product that even compares, there is no reason Tesla can’t just leapfrog them anyway. By the way, you can be sure that Tesla isn’t going to release a pick up that doesn’t compete with pick ups.

Andy
The Model 3 is the only BEV (excluding Teslas other more expensive vehicles) with a long range capacity built in large numbers, in one country. It’s only real competitors are the Bolt (major restrictions in production) and the Leaf, which has a much lower range and is also restricted in sales volume both because it’s sold worldwide and because of production constraints. In 2-3 years is this going to be the case for the Y? I very much doubt it, at least to the same extent as the Model 3, which is essentially unique in it’s class (small-mid sized sedan). There are some vehicles available in PHEV yes, but they don’t have the full benefits of BEV and they’re being punished for it. Personally I don’t really see the point of a PHEV (except in the large SUV/Pickup where range and towing ability are important), and I think many others feel the same. They’re more expensive and don’t really benefit except in specific circumstances. That said, the only real “direct” competitors at the moment are the premium ICE Sedans (due largely to price). I doubt Toyota or Honda is particularly worried about sales of their sedans relative to the current… Read more »
JJG

You’re missing the 3rd major point which is critical in EV’s. Nationwide network of high-speed chargers. No one else will have that available, in my opinion, for at least 5 years.

Andy
That doesn’t seem to be affecting sales at the moment. Pretty much every manufacturer selling BEV’s have reservations lists stretching months/a year. It’s more an issue for the US and Canada than any other market, at least if we’re discussing longer range vehicles (200+ miles), but even then Tesla only really have the bare minimum number of chargers available (you’re ok if you live in certain areas, or only take major highways everywhere). It’s just not as big an issue as many people make out and it’s certainly not something I really care about either TBH. As an example Tesla only have a couple of superchargers around where I live, one in my city (so not really relevant to me) and one 100+ miles away, tens of miles from where I go when travelling longer distances. I’m sure I’m not the only one with this issue. In certain areas and for certain people that may be something that’s important to them, in other areas it’s not going to be. In 5 years, Tesla may well be competing against a dozen manufacturers using the same standard and able to install magnitudes more chargers than a single company can. Three years is… Read more »
jeffhre

You seem to describe superchargers as functioning as destination chargers.

antrik

Actually, the top 5 Model 3 trade-ins suggest that even the expensive variants available right now are already taking some share from cheaper sedans; this will only get more pronounced with the $35,000 variant.

Billy G

one thing overlooked by many though is the how the other potential BEV manufacturers will deal with selling pure BEV’s, dealerships will never be incentivized to sell BEV’s if they require less maintenance. this IMO will be the legacy manufacturer’s downfall, the dealerships will say the BEV’s are unsustainable as cash cows as they lose their ongoing maintenance revenues, the next 5 years will be very interesting to see how legacy auto makers pivot.

magama52

Agreed. Tesla is not their competition, is their own ICE car parked next to the BEV and dealership’s maintenance dept.

Andy

BEV’s still need maintenance. Less maintenance sure, but just removing the ICE does not mean suddenly everything else becomes more reliable. Yearly “services” are still “needed” for Model S and X’s for example and the actual service requirements are basically the same as an ICE (greasing door seals, changing cabin filters, checking steering joints etc), except for the $70 oil change. CV joints, power steering, electrical circuits, brakes, tyres, rust, they’ll all still need doing to the same extent as an ICE.

The biggest issue is most dealers just don’t know much about their BEV vehicles or have preformed opinions on their usefulness IMO. That will change as more models, and a greater number of models, become available from the dealers manufacturer.

Tesla have still to show that a direct model actually works TBH. They’re struggling with just a small percentage of the vehicles larger manufacturers would have to deal with.

There are positive and negative parts of both models but I think the question is still out as to which is “best” overall (if either of them actually are).

antrik

There is broad consensus that most BEVs have considerably less maintenance costs.

jeffhre

Most years these elements are simply “checked” for safe operation and do not require actual “maintenance.” The things that you note are missing in BEVs “oil changes,” “brake service” do require service.

antrik

While it’s true that this is a challenge for legacy brands, it’s not impossible to overcome… When demand becomes strong enough, dealerships have to adopt, as they did in Norway.

antrik

It’s true that the Model Y will be entering a less pristine market, with less cross-selling opportunities than the Model 3. On the other hand, I’m not aware of anything announced so far that would actually be a direct Model Y competitor?…

Dan F.

Those are optimistic dates to say the least. $50k model Y with no tax credit may not be the big threat. Can they offer it for $25-35k? This of course begs the question of what will happen to Tesla and others US EV/PHEV sales as the tax credits sunset.

JJG

I think a 50k Y is pretty competitive. A decently loaded F-150 can reach $45-50k no problem. TCO brings the Y to even or better.

Andy

No way $50k will be the price if it’s a full size pickup. $70k possibly, but considering the cost of Teslas current crop of 100kWh vehicles even $70k is probably a lower estimate. Add on a 200kWh battery pack for those that want to use it for work/to tow and you’re looking at $20k just for the battery alone, if they can get it down to $100/kWh.

antrik

By the time Tesla makes a pickup, the price premium for the base variant over an entry-level combustion pickup should be no more than $15,000 or so.

Will

Model Y in $40K- $65k will work

Andy

Against the likes of the BMW X3 and MB GLC maybe, but against the Rav 4 and CRV? The latter two start at around $25k and top out at $40k. Without incentives that’s a very specific usage requirement to make that money back in the longish term.

jeffhre

The $35 – 40K CRV replacement with trips to the gas station during thunder showers and lake effect snowstorms vs BEV TCO begins to look a bit shaky.

first there is a mountain

“we are roughly a year and half away from the model Y hatchback”

I would say that’s an extremely optimistic timeline, considering there is no factory, nor money to build one

Pushmi-Pullyu

How long are anti-Tesla smear campaigners gonna keep whining this B.S. that Tesla doesn’t have the money to build a new factory? Will you stop when they break ground, or will that particular bit of regurgitated bull pucky only cease when the production line in the factory actually starts running?

Reality check: Raising money hasn’t been a problem for Tesla ever since its IPO.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“so we are roughly a year and half away from the model Y hatchback…”

Well, 18 months in Elon time. That’s perhaps 2 or 2-1/2 years in real world time.

We don’t even know where they are gonna build it yet.

MDEV

Just imagine Tesla in 100 years.

windbourne

no, ford is stopping sedans in America, not all over.

Andy

A lot of manufacturers try and upsell to Crossovers, which generally have a higher profit margin so, broadly speaking, yes they essentially are. Sedans are a shrinking, low profit market in most markets and have been for the last decade.

That’s not to take away from the Model 3’s success, but there are a number of contributing factors that need to be considered in all this; including the fact it’s one of very few long range BEVs available now, Tesla are currently fulfilling back orders so it’s not a true representation of long term sales numbers and most companies are concentrating on crossover and SUV sales at the expense of Sedans.

It’s going to be interesting to see where Tesla sit in a couple of years, when the market matures, when there is greater direct competition and when the back orders have been fulfilled. Will Tesla need to invest more in factories to increase the output, or will sales only sustain a single factory doing up to 10,000 a week?

antrik

While it’s true that Tesla should face competition in the future, considering the extremely strong brand, it seems very unlikely that they won’t see substantial growth going forward.

Will

Yeah Ford and Chyrisler gave up the car segment to the Asians and SUV long time ago

Dante

The article shows all sales of all vehicles in the second table. Tesla made a sedan and it’s winning in sedans. What you just did is like a team winning the cricket world cup but someone comes along and says “well, the football world cup is better.” Different market man. Tesla shouldn’t be on any list of vehicles in the $20k range to begin with.

Viking79

Wait until the Model Y starts shipping then we can talk again.

EVShopper

Yeah, that’s going to be interesting, because by the time they are in production with the Model Y in significant numbers, there should be several long range all-electric CUVs to choose from in the market.

Dante

None of which will be made in significant numbers, but it doesn’t matter either way because the market is bigger than anything planned for production, including the Model Y.

ffbj

Define several. Is that more than 3, 5. Yes there will probably be a number of them, selling a small number, perhaps even several.

Robert Weekley

Yes, and each one will replace one more ICE Vehicle sale! Not as likely to take 1:1 from Tesla sales, as much as the 1:1 take away from ICE Sales!

Robert Weekley

So, 20,000 iPaces’s…. Is Competition? 1-2 months Model 3 sales (@ last 2 month’s sales, so far, and still picking up speed!), so just a nick in potential sales by Tesla!

But, Both iPace AND Model 3, compete against ICE Sales, more than against each other! That is why the theory of the coming. “Tesla Killers” is so funny, and Stupid! They will just kill ICE Sales in their own and other brands, in the end!

Andy
And 20,000 Konas, and 20,000 Neros, and 20,000 XC40s and 20,000 Audis, and 20,000… etc. (and that’s just some of the ones we know are coming). The market in 2021 is going to be very different to today. The Y hasn’t even been officially announced yet, so there’s plenty of time for other manufacturers to announce their own vehicles, and to increase production of already announced vehicles. As for what will compete with what. It’s likely to be a lot more complicated than just one or the other. A lot of Tesla’s sales now will be because they are the “only” option. Add competition and people that may have bought a Tesla in the past may buy a Jaguar instead. The BEV models will also be competing against ICE vehicles and cannibalizing sales from them too. The issue Tesla have is still production volume. The other manufacturers have plants, they have processes, they have sales networks already in place. Retooling a factory for a new model is a lot easier than building one from scratch. Tesla are going to be production constrained for years to come. To be the main BEV manufacturer (outside of China) in 3-5 years time they… Read more »
antrik

While the Model Y will probably see less cross-selling than the Model 3, I don’t see anyone taking significant sales from the Model Y in its own segment any time soon. Luxury SUVs/CUVs costing almost twice as much won’t be taking significant sales from Model Y; nor will similarly-priced yet less premium, low-volume compliance cars.

Legacy makers have existing vehicle production capacity, but no existing battery production capacity. They could ramp up vehicle production quickly — but not only will they need to have a competitive product first, but also they will have to order enough batteries way in advance, so the requisite battery factories get built. Are any of the legacy makers planning volumes for 2021 that could make a serious dent in Model Y demand? I’ve yet to see that…

jeffhre

I just read an article that shows that EV sales go up overall each time interesting new models are introduced. That overall EV growth – market expansion, clearly shows that new EVs are cannibalizing some ICE sales. Tesla has no ICE sales to cannibalize with the introduction of each new model.

Gazz

When is that? Tesla doesn’t know where the factory will be.

antrik

You think so? Tesla certainly seems more secretive than usual about the location…

Maaz Jilani

Umm they already announced the model y factory to be in China. The deal is done.

Nix

China factory is for building cars for the Pacific Rim markets only. It is not the Model Y factory

William

Wait till the Tesla Model Y fulfills its (yet to be placed) backlog of preorders/reservations…

… and then yet again, we will have to “really talk”.

Can I bring me a chair for sittin’ in?

Robert Weekley

Maybe bring a Tent, that will take a while! Apple could really speed things up, giving Tesla just $20 Billion!

antrik

Actually, on the conference call they claimed they are growing at a pace where additional capital couldn’t be used efficiently to speed things up…

Elooney Muskey

Err. Model Y aka Hyundai Kona is already selling.

jeffhre

I understand that, being in the hottest growing, emerging new car segment – Hyundai is expecting to have to knuckle down with noses to the grindstone and serve their 400,000 Kona pre-order customers!

Robb Stark

This is like Croatia coming in 2nd in the World Cup. Quite an accomplishment for a tiny new Nation State.

William

Sometimes it’s best, to just let France win, to prevent and avoid another global (3rd) conflict.

Scott Franco

It would prevent the deployment of the headbutt army, certainly.

AJ

Tesla is selling a sedan in a market where others are failing to market their sedans to the consumer. Maybe because the model 3 is roomier on the inside than the other sedans that are loosing sales. Has more cargo room and is way quicker and cheaper to maintain. If the Honda Accord or Civic had those characteristics, maybe they will continue to sell better than the Pilot or the CRV.

Will

Nope backlog and non existent American sedens

Will

Accord and Camary are not losing market share and it’s a great cars

Pushmi-Pullyu

The soaring sales of the Model 3 into a declining sedan market isn’t due to how much or how little cabin room it has. It’s due to the “Tesla” logo on the car, and how much better BEVs (or at least Tesla’s cars) are than gasmobiles in being clean, quiet, instantly responsive, and being a real pleasure to drive in a way that no gasmobile can ever be.

antrik

… and offering more room, in a way no gasmobile ever can 😛

Pushmi-Pullyu

You’ve become quite proficient at moving the goal posts, haven’t you? Well, very shortly that’s not going to work. When the Model 3 moves into the Top 5 best-selling passenger vehicles — not just “cars” — in the U.S., and then worldwide, then you won’t have anywhere left to move those goal posts! You’ll have to flee to another field, and only talk about total sales of all models for the different companies.

antrik

Oh, there are always ways to move the goal posts. Next will be how they don’t outsell all other automobiles combined; after that, all vehicles, including bicycles and scooters; then come other modes of transport, such as shoes… 😉

MDEV

you aretexting from your Nokia right,

Dante

Looks like my prediction of 7th or 8th from the previous article “Tesla Model 3 Sales Rocket To New High In July, Sets Records” panned out. What’s amazing about this is that July 2018 wasn’t even a full-tilt month and the $35k version is still on the horizon. Breaking into the top five cars seems pretty certain some time this year. A good chance of top ten overall soon after.

For context on the note about GM, the Cruze and the Malibu sold 12,612 and 14,089 in June according to the same site so it’s a reasonable bet that Tesla is still 7th or 8th when you include those two. It’s probably most likely 7th.

M Hovis

January is typically an off month for everyone. Meanwhile, manufacturing improves daily for Tesla. Can we imagine what position January might hold for Tesla? I suppose a lot depends on whether they start shipping overseas in 2019. No matter what, a lot of auto executives are having a “ruh-roh” moment right now.

William

Ford is going to have to start searching for some Scooby Snacks.

Maybe the Mystery Machine is available, to search for clues, and maybe an EVentual rescue!

Will

Lol. They killed there sedens and going full suvs and if look in the charts they have #1 auto product

jeffhre

What are their plans for the next time oil prices rise? Hand customers coupons for “future” high mileage sedans? BEVs?

jeffhre

Funny, all I could think after that was…

“ruh-roh; oops, ahhhhhhhhhh”

Ha ha, my puppy just looked up from his sleep, “rrrrr.” I think that means, whats he laughing about?

Benz

Awesome

Dante

Hey Wade, they’re using your numbers but they forgot to fill in April by the way. They have it at 0 sales. Also another cool chart from that site is the brand rankings.

Ron M

The short sellers that are sticking with short positions on Tesla hasn’t changed. They must have a lot of money or are Masochist.
Who wears short shorts You wear short shorts hahahaha.
I love you morons and want to thank you.

jeffhre

A 16% rise doesn’t re-jigger an entire world view. And I also want to thank you guys for sticking tough with it!

Jack

They delayed many deliveries to game the tax credit and other sales didn’t cost the taxpayer $150 mil

ffbj

I would answer that you don’t know…Yourself.

ffbj

Nice to see it, the 3 vaulting up the list. Isn’t this the first time this has happened, that an ev has been in the top ten?
Well, it won’t be the last time, but it may continue to be the only one.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Isn’t this the first time this has happened, that an ev has been in the top ten?”

The top 10 in monthly U.S. street-legal, highway capable passenger “car” sales, yes. But not all passenger vehicles, because that would include light trucks such as pickups and SUVs.

Seven Electrics

How often do new or post-refresh models surge into the top 10 like this?

Dante

Not in the last 20 years at least. Last example I’m aware of is probably the Mustang, the Firebird, and the Camero in the 60’s. It’s pretty hard to break the top 10 from a standing start in 12 or so months generally. Sometimes imports do it when they get introduced, but that’s usually after years in some other market.

F150 Brian

Good for Tesla (and EVs), but the article is wrong. The model 3 is not in the top 20.

There are missing entries (Silverado, Sierra and Colorado for sure, maybe others) ahead of the Model 3.

William

Good catch on the GM truck segment, especially the full size (3/4 ton+) sales leaders.

William

Looks like July is the last month of leadership for the Nissan Sentra and Altima, over the Model 3.

Ziv

Given the way Tesla held some of the 3 production so that they wouldn’t be delivered until early July, it is possible that August will be down a bit from July or just a bit higher. But September will be higher by a good amount and every quarter going forward is going to be a record for Tesla except maybe Q1 of 2019.

Billy G

but we are already at 4280 a week in august according to the bloomberg tracker unless for some reason it drops and they are guiding to 6k a week by the end of this month. so atleast 17,120 units or up to 18k~ if they hit 6k a week the last week

Ziv

Tesla seems to be producing the 3 in bursts and I don’t think Bloomberg has completely figured out how to report the bursts in an accurate manner. But I tend to guess low on Tesla production, so there is that. I would rather see the headline be “Tesla beats estimates!” rather than see Tesla deliver 14,000 3’s in the US and see huge headlines on webzines “Tesla production drops, falls short of predicted levels!”
Anything close to 14,000 is good, anything over 14,000 is very good. If they get up to 17,000, I will be doing an end zone dance on the shorters front lawn. Figuratively.
Last time I predicted 10,000 and hoped for 12,000 while the optimists were saying that due to Bloombergs numbers and insider info they thought the number was going to be 16,000. At 14,250 it wasn’t too far off from my hope for number.

antrik

They aren’t holding back on purpose (if they ever did?), but they are still fighting delivery bottlenecks — so the numbers should keep rising steadily.

arne-nl

I’m not so sure about your ‘deliveries held back from June’ theory.

According to the Bloomberg tracker, Tesla produced ~15.5 k vehicles in July. So Tesla now have a good 1k more vehicles awaiting delivery than at the start of the month. According to your theory, they should have delivered more than they produced, but delivery still can’t keep up with production it seems. But then again, this is all speculation based on estimated numbers…

Will

New Altima is coming out. So end of sell and cheap discounts for this yearly model

Lou Grinzo

Moving forward, I think it would make sense to drop the sedan/non-sedan car distinction in all these discussions. Generally, analysts talk about “light duty vehicles” as a category that includes pickup trucks (4 wheel, 2 axle), minivans, SUVs, CUVs, and all forms of plain old cars. At least here in the US, I think a useful breakout is “cars”, meaning all the non-pickup truck groups in LDVs and “trucks”.

We need less hair splitting about whether a given vehicle is a sedan or a wagon (like the Leaf and Bolt) or a CUV/SUV or a minivan. LD trucks still need to be split out because about 80% of them in the US are bought for business use (last time I saw official numbers), with no reasonable option to use a car instead.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Thank goodness we aren’t restricted to using only technical, specialized industry terms in discussions here.

It might make sense to suggest we use the term “passenger vehicles” eschewing the artificial separation between “cars” and “light trucks”, but nobody I know uses the term “light duty vehicles” in conversation. Not even on forums like this.

antrik

I think the US might be pretty unique in counting SUVs as “light trucks” rather than cars?…

Seems to be a formalisms only, though — in colloquial conversation, I think most people refer to SUVs as cars as well?

TJKR

I don’t understand the commotion behind July’s sales. If Tesla made 100,000 Model 3’s in July and figured out a way to distribute them they’ll be #1 selling car in the US. This is purely pent up demand that will go down to a predictable level. Tesla has a good two years of selling 20K+ Model 3’s per month. Between now and two years people will see their neighbors, friends, family own one and see them on the road, perhaps take it out for a spin… owners will preach how amazing the car is, how it costs nearly nothing to fuel and require no maintenance and demand will start to grow. It’ll prove true the idiom best marketing is word of mouth.

arne-nl

” This is purely pent up demand that will go down to a predictable level. “

My crystal ball has a different opinion 🙂

Scott Franco

I two interesting facts from the list:

1. Where are the other BEVs (on the list). This is Tesla climbing into ICE car territory.

2. Ford and GM occupy the top spots overall, with RAM and F150. However, they gave up the sedan market to Toyota, Honda and Nissan. So those are the makers that need to worry about Tesla. And only one of them, Nissan, actually fields a competitive car (Nissan Leaf).

I’m sure at this point that the big makers consider this Tesla market push to be a passing fad. That’s usually how large companies regard their replacements just before the, um, dirt hits the fan.

Robert Weekley

Scott, I am sure you meant well, but to say you did not know RAM is Dodge, and Silverado is GM, when you said “Ford and GM occupy the top spots overall, with RAM and F150.”, is just wrong!

However, it is true that the Fan is Spinning, and the Dirt is coming towards it!

Will

Ram is Dodge. GM Silverado, GMC pickups

arne-nl

“So those are the makers that need to worry about Tesla”

Bad advice. ALL car makers need to worry about Tesla.

Mark.ca

“Dear Client,
In light of the current trading environment, IBKR will be increasing the margin requirement for all Tesla Inc. (TSLA) products (Stock, Equity Options, Futures, and CFDs) to approximately 5% higher than the current respective margin requirement. Please keep in mind that in risk-based accounts, other house margin charges may increase the margin requirement above the 5% indication. ”

Part of the message i got today from IB….lol, some shorts got into big trouble and they probably had to liquidate positions. Last time they did this was in February after the VIX fiasco.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Probably not the “epic short squeeze” that Elon promised a few months (or was it just weeks?) ago, but certainly a step in the right direction!

Billy G

at 6k a week for september, that will put them around 5th place for cars only and around 10th place overall.
if they achieve 10k a week, that puts them in 1st place for cars and 4th overall.

in 2019-2020, we get the model Y which will displace the rav-4 so Tesla will have the #2 and #4 spot overall by end of 2020.

in 2020-2021 we get the tesla truck that may displace the RAM pickup, so by end of 2021 or 2022, it would be ford f-series as #1, and the next 3 will Model 3, Model Y and Tesla truck, and don’t forget Tesla Semi, Roadster and energy business.

TJKR

The Model Y has much more potential for higher sales than Model 3. I cannot wait for the day. I am willing to bet within 3-4 years of Model Y being available, it’ll be the best selling car in America.

dathomir

I’m willing to bet the Model Y will outsell the Model 3 by a very healthy margin!

antrik

I wouldn’t be so sure. By the time the Model Y hits the market, there should be some attractive options available in neighbouring segments, meaning less cross-selling potential than the Model 3 gets.

Also, while combustion SUVs/CUVs easily outsell combustion cars in the US, going by Model X vs. Model S sales, the preference seems to be less pronounced among BEV shoppers. (Probably because of the efficiency penalty?…)

Will

Model Y end 2020 – mass produce 2021

Dan F.

They left the GM (chevy/GMC) pickups which are collectively about the same as the F-series off the second list. What else is missing/wrong?

JJG

It’s in the 2nd paragraph. ” However, keep in mind this does not include sales from General Motors who now only report quarterly.”

first there is a mountain

if you’re going to use Tesla estimates, why not use GM estimates? It would at least be consistent

JJG

It’s not their report. You’d have to ask GCBC.

Will

Don’t use the reports

Dima

Japanese cars are the best.